id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-321735-c40m2o5l	Manca, Davide	A simplified math approach to predict ICU beds and mortality rate for hospital emergency planning under Covid-19 pandemic	2020-06-04		.txt	text/plain	7164	323	53	Besides the predicted numbers, those models allowed also forecasting the different phases of the pandemic and quantifying some basic indicators about the daily variations, the key times, the key figures, the expected decrease, the progressive reach of a maximum plateau before facing with the decrease of ICU beds for Covid-19 which we are measuring right now. Usually, patients remain in ICU wards at least fifteen days (with twenty-day stay the standard value) (Cutuli, 2020) and, respect to Covid-19 emergency, this quite a long time allows describing the whole ICU beds inflation period with curves such as the logistic (Hosmer et al., 2013) or the Gompertz (Panik, 2014) ones. The models of Section 2.3 applied to the case study of Lombardy and Italy proved their efficiency in reproducing real data and were used to forecast the evolution of key parameters as the number of ICU patients and deaths on both short and long-time horizons.	./cache/cord-321735-c40m2o5l.txt	./txt/cord-321735-c40m2o5l.txt