id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	1	1	key	key	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	1	2	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	1	3	cord-280942-ej8fx52u	cord-280942-ej8fx52u	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	1	authors	author	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	2	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	3	Daunizeau	Daunizeau	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	5	J.	J.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	6	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	7	Moran	Moran	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	9	R.	R.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	10	J.	J.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	11	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	12	Mattout	Mattout	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	14	J.	J.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	15	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	16	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	18	K.	K.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	19	title	title	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	2	20	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	1	On	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	3	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	5	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	7	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	8	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	9	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	11	context	context	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	14	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	15	COVID	covid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	16	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	17	event	event	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	18	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	19	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	21	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	22	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	23	phase	phase	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	24	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	25	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	26	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	27	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	28	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	29	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	30	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	31	04	04	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	32	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	33	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	34	journal	journal	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	3	35	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	4	1	nan	nan	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	4	2	DOI	DOI	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	4	3	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	4	4	10.1101/2020.04.24.20078485	10.1101/2020.04.24.20078485	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	4	5	sha	sha	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	4	6	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	5	1	ebe2921e0a4e7a91076887a03a26e88805679ebb	ebe2921e0a4e7a91076887a03a26e88805679ebb	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	5	2	doc_id	doc_id	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	5	3	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	6	1	280942	280942	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	6	2	cord_uid	cord_uid	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	6	3	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	7	1	ej8fx52u	ej8fx52u	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	2	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	3	spread	spread	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	6	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	7	virus	virus	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	10	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	12	20th	20th	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	14	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	15	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	16	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	17	reached	reach	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	18	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	19	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	21	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	22	world	world	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	8	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	2	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	3	effort	effort	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	4	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	5	design	design	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	6	informed	inform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	7	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	8	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	9	policies	policy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	11	many	many	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	12	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	13	studies	study	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	14	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	15	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	16	performed	perform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	17	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	18	predict	predict	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	19	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	20	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	21	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	22	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	23	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	24	including	include	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	25	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	26	solicitation	solicitation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	27	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	28	cumulated	cumulate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	29	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	30	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	31	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	32	etc	etc	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	9	33	...	...	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	2	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	3	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	4	analyses	analysis	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	5	however	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	7	mostly	mostly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	8	rely	rely	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	9	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	10	restricted	restrict	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	12	openly	openly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	13	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	15	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	16	sources	source	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	18	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	19	typically	typically	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	20	include	include	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	21	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	22	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	23	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	24	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	25	confirmed	confirm	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	26	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	27	cases	case	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	28	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	29	series	series	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	10	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	4	many	many	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	6	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	7	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	8	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	9	derived	derive	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	10	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	12	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	14	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	15	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	16	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	17	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	18	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	19	yet	yet	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	20	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	21	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	22	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	23	still	still	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	24	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	25	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	26	case	case	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	27	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	28	many	many	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	29	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	30	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	11	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	3	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	6	show	show	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	8	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	9	phase	phase	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	10	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	11	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	12	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	13	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	14	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	15	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	16	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	17	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	18	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	19	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	21	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	22	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	12	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	1	Although	although	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	3	focus	focus	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	4	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	5	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	6	recent	recent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	7	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	10	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	11	pandemics	pandemic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	13	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	14	conclusions	conclusion	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	15	most	most	RBS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	16	likely	likely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	17	apply	apply	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	18	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	19	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	20	existing	existing	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	21	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	23	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	24	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	25	variants	variant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	26	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	27	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	28	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	29	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	30	called	call	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	31	'	'	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	32	Susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	33	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	34	Infected	Infected	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	35	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	36	Removed	remove	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	37	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	38	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	39	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	40	framework	framework	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	13	41	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	2	results	result	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	3	highlight	highlight	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	5	need	need	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	6	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	7	performing	perform	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	8	systematic	systematic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	9	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	10	evaluations	evaluation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	11	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	12	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	13	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	14	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	15	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	16	inform	inform	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	17	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	18	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	19	policies	policy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	14	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	1	They	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	2	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	3	motivate	motivate	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	4	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	5	plea	plea	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	6	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	7	gathering	gathering	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	8	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	9	opening	open	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	10	richer	rich	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	11	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	12	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	13	reliable	reliable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	14	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	15	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	16	series	series	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	18	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	19	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	20	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	21	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	23	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	24	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	25	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	26	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	27	social	social	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	28	distancing	distance	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	29	commitment	commitment	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	30	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	31	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	32	etc	etc	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	33	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	15	34	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	1	As	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	2	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	4	situation	situation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	5	almost	almost	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	6	exactly	exactly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	7	one	one	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	8	hundred	hundred	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	9	years	year	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	10	ago	ago	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	11	-with	-with	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	13	Spanish	spanish	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	14	flu	flu	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	15	-	-	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	17	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	18	spread	spread	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	21	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	22	virus	virus	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	23	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	24	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	25	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	26	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	27	20	20	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	28	th	th	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	29	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	30	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	31	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	32	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	33	reached	reach	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	34	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	35	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	36	around	around	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	37	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	38	world	world	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	39	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	40	Johnson	Johnson	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	41	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	42	Mueller	Mueller	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	43	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	44	2002	2002	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	45	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	16	46	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	2	entire	entire	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	3	scientific	scientific	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	4	community	community	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	6	now	now	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	7	addressing	address	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	9	many	many	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	10	issues	issue	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	11	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	13	virus	virus	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	14	poses	pose	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	16	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	17	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	18	unprecedented	unprecedented	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	19	collaborative	collaborative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	20	spirit	spirit	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	17	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	1	One	one	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	2	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	3	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	4	issues	issue	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	7	primary	primary	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	8	importance	importance	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	9	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	10	guiding	guide	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	11	national	national	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	12	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	13	international	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	14	decision	decision	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	15	makers	maker	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	16	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	17	namely	namely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	19	predicting	predict	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	21	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	22	requirements	requirement	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	23	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	24	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	26	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	27	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	28	epidemiologic	epidemiologic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	18	29	event	event	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	2	Siedner	Siedner	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	3	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	5	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	7	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	8	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	9	Wang	Wang	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	11	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	19	13	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	1	Over	over	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	3	past	past	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	4	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	5	months	month	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	7	about	about	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	8	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	9	thousand	thousand	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	10	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	11	papers	paper	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	12	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	13	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	14	deposited	deposit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	15	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	17	servers	server	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	18	such	such	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	19	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	20	ArXiv	ArXiv	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	21	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	20	22	MedRXiv	MedRXiv	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	21	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	21	2	Nature	nature	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	21	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	21	4	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	21	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	21	6	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	3	if	if	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	4	anything	anything	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	6	demonstrates	demonstrate	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	7	how	how	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	8	fast	fast	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	10	efficiently	efficiently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	12	scientific	scientific	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	13	community	community	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	14	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	15	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	16	set	set	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	18	motion	motion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	19	towards	towards	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	20	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	21	common	common	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	22	goal	goal	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	22	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	1	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	5	now	now	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	6	apparent	apparent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	8	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	9	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	10	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	11	reached	reach	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	12	consensus	consensus	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	23	13	,	,	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	1	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	3	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	4	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	5	comes	come	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	6	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	7	predicting	predict	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	9	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	10	levels	level	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	11	acquired	acquire	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	12	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	13	within	within	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	14	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	15	next	next	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	16	months	month	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	24	17	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	3	unfortunate	unfortunate	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	5	since	since	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	6	thisand	thisand	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	7	related	related	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	8	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	9	-	-	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	10	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	11	critical	critical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	12	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	13	designing	design	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	14	suppression	suppression	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	15	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	16	mitigation	mitigation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	17	strategies	strategy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	18	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	19	aim	aim	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	20	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	21	limiting	limit	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	23	human	human	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	24	cost	cost	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	26	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	27	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	25	28	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	26	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	26	2	Canabarro	Canabarro	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	26	3	et	et	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	26	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	26	5	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	1	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	3	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	4	James	James	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	5	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	6	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	7	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	9	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	10	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	11	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	12	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	13	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	14	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	16	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	17	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	27	18	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	1	Most	Most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	2	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	3	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	4	attempt	attempt	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	5	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	6	furnish	furnish	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	7	such	such	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	8	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	9	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	10	variants	variant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	13	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	14	framework	framework	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	16	Kermack	Kermack	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	17	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	18	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	19	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	21	1927	1927	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	22	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	28	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	2	brief	brief	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	4	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	5	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	6	assume	assume	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	9	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	11	divided	divide	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	12	into	into	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	14	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	16	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	17	Susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	18	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	19	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	20	'	'	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	21	Infected	infect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	22	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	23	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	24	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	25	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	26	Removed	remove	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	27	1	1	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	28	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	29	compartments	compartment	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	30	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	31	through	through	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	32	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	33	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	34	transit	transit	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	35	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	36	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	37	pace	pace	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	38	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	39	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	40	characteristic	characteristic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	41	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	42	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	43	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	44	course	course	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	45	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	46	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	47	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	48	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	49	associated	associated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	50	socio	socio	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	51	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	52	medical	medical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	53	measures	measure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	29	54	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	1	Under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	2	mild	mild	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	3	assumptions	assumption	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	5	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	6	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	7	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	8	predict	predict	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	9	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	11	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	12	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	13	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	14	eventually	eventually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	15	reach	reach	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	16	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	17	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	18	called	call	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	19	'	'	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	20	disease	disease	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	21	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	22	free	free	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	23	equilibria	equilibrium	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	24	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	25	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	26	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	27	signal	signal	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	28	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	29	end	end	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	30	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	31	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	32	epidemic	epidemic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	33	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	34	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	35	exhaustion	exhaustion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	36	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	37	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	38	'	'	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	39	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	40	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	41	compartment	compartment	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	30	42	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	2	means	mean	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	3	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	5	signature	signature	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	7	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	8	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	9	lies	lie	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	10	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	12	transient	transient	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	13	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	15	observable	observable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	16	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	17	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	18	such	such	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	19	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	20	confirmed	confirm	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	21	case	case	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	22	numbers	number	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	23	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	24	mortalities	mortality	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	31	25	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	1	These	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	2	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	3	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	4	proven	prove	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	5	very	very	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	6	useful	useful	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	7	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	8	predicting	predict	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	10	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	13	prevalence	prevalence	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	14	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	16	duration	duration	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	17	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	18	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	19	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	32	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	1	When	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	2	properly	properly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	3	adjusted	adjust	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	4	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	5	observable	observable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	6	epidemiologic	epidemiologic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	7	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	9	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	10	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	11	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	12	serve	serve	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	14	predict	predict	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	16	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	17	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	18	candidate	candidate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	19	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	20	policies	policy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	21	such	such	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	22	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	23	vaccination	vaccination	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	24	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	25	social	social	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	26	distancing	distancing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	28	Ganem	Ganem	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	29	et	et	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	30	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	33	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	1	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	3	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	4	Jeria	Jeria	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	5	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	6	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	7	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	9	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	10	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	11	Kissler	Kissler	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	12	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	13	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	14	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	34	16	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	1	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	2	Moghadas	Moghadas	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	3	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	5	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	7	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	35	9	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	1	Given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	3	past	past	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	4	success	success	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	6	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	7	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	9	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	10	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	11	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	12	come	come	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	13	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	14	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	15	surprise	surprise	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	16	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	18	despite	despite	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	19	relying	rely	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	20	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	21	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	22	same	same	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	23	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	24	sources	source	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	25	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	26	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	27	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	28	do	do	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	29	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	30	make	make	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	31	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	32	same	same	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	33	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	36	34	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	3	note	note	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	6	argue	argue	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	8	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	9	lack	lack	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	11	consensus	consensus	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	12	arises	arise	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	13	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	14	modellers	modeller	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	15	use	use	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	17	same	same	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	18	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	19	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	21	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	22	comprises	comprise	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	23	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	24	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	26	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	27	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	28	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	29	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	30	testing	testing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	37	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	2	critical	critical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	3	question	question	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	4	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	6	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	7	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	8	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	9	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	10	sufficiently	sufficiently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	11	constrain	constrain	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	12	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	14	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	15	cycles	cycle	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	38	16	?	?	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	1	If	if	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	2	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	4	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	5	subtle	subtle	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	6	variants	variant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	8	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	9	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	10	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	11	make	make	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	12	dramatically	dramatically	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	13	different	different	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	14	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	16	despite	despite	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	17	showing	show	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	18	almost	almost	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	19	no	no	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	20	difference	difference	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	21	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	22	terms	term	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	23	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	25	fit	fit	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	26	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	27	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	28	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	29	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	30	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	31	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	32	far	far	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	34	Salomon	Salomon	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	35	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	36	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	37	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	39	38	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	1	Also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	3	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	4	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	5	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	6	depend	depend	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	7	sensitively	sensitively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	8	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	10	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	11	phase	phase	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	14	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	15	event	event	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	16	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	17	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	18	precisely	precisely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	19	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	20	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	21	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	22	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	23	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	24	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	25	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	26	reached	reach	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	27	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	40	28	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	2	Lin	Lin	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	3	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	5	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	7	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	41	9	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	3	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	5	ramping	ramping	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	6	phase	phase	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	9	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	10	transient	transient	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	11	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	12	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	13	evince	evince	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	14	all	all	PDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	16	processes	process	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	17	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	18	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	19	relevant	relevant	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	20	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	21	estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	22	unknown	unknown	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	23	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	24	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	25	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	26	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	27	hence	hence	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	28	making	make	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	29	reliable	reliable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	30	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	31	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	32	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	33	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	42	35	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	3	note	note	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	6	assess	assess	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	8	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	10	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	11	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	12	phase	phase	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	13	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	14	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	15	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	16	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	18	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	20	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	21	derived	derive	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	22	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	23	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	24	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	25	type	type	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	26	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	43	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	2	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	5	evaluate	evaluate	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	7	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	8	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	10	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	11	recent	recent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	12	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	14	type	type	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	15	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	16	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	17	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	18	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	19	augmenting	augment	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	21	set	set	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	23	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	24	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	25	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	26	explained	explain	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	28	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	29	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	30	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	31	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	32	focus	focus	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	33	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	34	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	35	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	36	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	37	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	38	testing	testing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	39	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	40	3	3	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	41	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	42	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	43	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	44	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	45	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	46	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	47	results	result	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	48	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	49	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	50	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	51	records	record	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	52	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	53	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	54	depending	depend	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	55	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	56	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	57	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	58	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	59	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	60	already	already	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	61	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	62	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	63	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	64	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	44	65	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	2	what	what	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	3	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	6	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	7	focus	focus	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	8	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	9	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	10	specific	specific	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	11	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	12	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	14	namely	namely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	15	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	17	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	18	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	19	called	call	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	20	dynamic	dynamic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	21	causal	causal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	22	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	23	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	24	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	25	pandemics	pandemic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	26	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	27	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	28	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	29	covid	covid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	30	Moran	Moran	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	31	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	32	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	33	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	34	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	35	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	36	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	45	37	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	2	brief	brief	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	5	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	6	considers	consider	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	7	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	8	interacting	interact	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	9	factors	factor	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	10	describing	describe	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	11	location	location	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	13	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	14	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	16	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	17	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	18	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	19	clinical	clinical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	20	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	21	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	22	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	46	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	1	Within	within	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	2	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	3	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	4	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	5	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	6	probabilistically	probabilistically	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	7	transition	transition	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	8	among	among	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	9	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	10	distinct	distinct	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	11	states	state	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	47	12	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	1	Given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	2	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	3	set	set	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	5	21	21	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	6	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	7	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	9	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	10	below	below	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	14	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	15	describes	describe	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	17	temporal	temporal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	18	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	21	marginal	marginal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	22	probabilities	probability	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	23	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	24	belonging	belong	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	25	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	26	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	27	state	state	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	28	within	within	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	29	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	30	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	48	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	2	location	location	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	3	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	4	describes	describe	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	5	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	6	Most	Most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	7	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	8	studies	study	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	9	actually	actually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	10	use	use	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	12	Johns	Johns	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	13	Hopkins	Hopkins	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	14	University	University	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	15	Center	Center	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	16	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	17	database	database	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	19	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	20	gathers	gather	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	21	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	22	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	23	WHO	WHO	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	24	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	25	other	other	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	26	national	national	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	27	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	28	international	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	29	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	30	organizations	organization	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	49	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	2	produces	produce	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	3	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	4	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	6	deaths	death	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	8	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	9	tests	test	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	10	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	11	remission	remission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	12	cases	case	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	13	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	14	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	15	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	16	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	18	world	world	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	20	https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html	https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	50	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	51	1	3	3	LS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	1	These	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	2	kinds	kind	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	4	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	6	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	7	openly	openly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	8	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	9	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	10	some	some	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	11	governmental	governmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	12	organizations	organization	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	14	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	16	Santé	Santé	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	17	Publique	Publique	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	18	France	France	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	52	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	1	if	if	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	2	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	3	individual	individual	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	5	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	6	home	home	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	8	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	9	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	10	4	4	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	12	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	13	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	14	intensive	intensive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	15	care	care	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	16	unit	unit	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	18	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	20	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	21	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	23	morgue	morgue	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	53	24	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	2	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	3	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	6	closest	close	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	7	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	8	native	native	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	9	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	10	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	12	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	13	includes	include	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	14	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	16	infected	infected	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	18	contagious	contagious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	19	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	20	immune	immune	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	21	states	state	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	54	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	1	Note	note	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	2	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	4	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	6	point	point	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	9	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	10	assumes	assume	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	11	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	13	immune	immune	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	14	state	state	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	15	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	16	absorbing	absorb	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	18	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	19	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	20	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	21	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	22	get	get	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	24	disease	disease	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	25	twice	twice	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	55	26	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	2	clinical	clinical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	3	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	4	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	5	comprises	comprise	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	6	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	8	symptomatic	symptomatic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	10	acute	acute	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	11	respiratory	respiratory	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	12	distress	distress	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	13	syndrome	syndrome	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	14	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	15	ARDS	ARDS	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	17	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	18	deceased	decease	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	56	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	4	diagnostic	diagnostic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	5	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	6	captures	capture	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	8	fact	fact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	9	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	10	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	11	given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	12	individual	individual	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	13	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	14	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	15	untested	untested	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	16	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	17	waiting	wait	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	18	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	19	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	20	results	result	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	21	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	22	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	23	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	24	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	25	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	26	declared	declare	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	27	either	either	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	28	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	29	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	30	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	57	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	1	Model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	2	transitions	transition	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	3	amongst	amongst	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	4	states	state	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	6	controlled	control	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	7	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	8	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	9	constants	constant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	11	inverse	inverse	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	12	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	13	constants	constant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	15	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	16	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	17	constants	constant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	19	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	21	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	22	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	23	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	24	dying	die	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	25	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	26	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	27	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	28	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	58	29	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	2	ensuing	ensue	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	3	set	set	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	5	state	state	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	6	probabilities	probability	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	7	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	8	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	9	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	10	related	relate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	11	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	12	some	some	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	13	specific	specific	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	14	observable	observable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	15	epidemiologic	epidemiologic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	16	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	18	such	such	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	19	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	21	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	23	deceased	deceased	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	24	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	25	per	per	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	26	day	day	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	27	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	28	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	29	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	30	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	31	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	32	newly	newly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	33	infected	infect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	34	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	35	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	36	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	37	tested	test	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	38	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	59	39	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	1	Figure	figure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	2	1	1	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	3	below	below	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	4	summarizes	summarize	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	6	causal	causal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	7	structure	structure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	8	implicit	implicit	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	9	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	10	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	11	transition	transition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	12	probabilities	probability	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	60	13	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	2	refer	refer	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	4	reader	reader	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	5	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	6	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	7	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	8	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	61	9	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	2	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	3	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	5	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	7	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	9	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	10	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	11	complete	complete	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	12	mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	13	description	description	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	16	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	62	17	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	2	brief	brief	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	4	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	5	compartmental	compartmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	6	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	7	generates	generate	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	8	timeseries	timeseries	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	9	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	10	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	11	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	12	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	13	mean	mean	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	14	field	field	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	15	approximation	approximation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	16	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	17	ensemble	ensemble	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	18	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	19	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	20	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	63	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	2	implicit	implicit	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	3	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	4	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	6	over	over	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	7	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	8	latent	latent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	9	factors	factor	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	11	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	12	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	13	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	14	levels	level	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	15	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	16	states	state	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	18	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	19	main	main	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	20	text	text	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	64	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	2	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	4	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	5	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	6	assumes	assume	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	7	that	that	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	9	i	i	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	11	there	there	EX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	12	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	13	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	14	progression	progression	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	15	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	16	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	17	state	state	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	18	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	19	susceptibility	susceptibility	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	20	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	21	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	23	through	through	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	24	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	25	period	period	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	26	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	28	pre	pre	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	29	-	-	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	30	contagious	contagious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	31	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	32	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	33	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	34	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	35	infectious	infectious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	36	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	37	contagious	contagious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	38	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	39	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	40	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	41	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	42	ii	ii	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	43	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	44	there	there	EX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	45	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	46	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	47	progression	progression	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	48	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	49	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	50	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	51	ARDS	ARDS	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	52	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	53	where	where	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	54	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	55	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	56	ARDS	ARDS	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	57	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	58	either	either	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	59	recover	recover	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	60	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	61	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	62	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	63	state	state	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	64	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	65	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	65	66	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	1	With	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	3	setup	setup	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	5	one	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	6	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	7	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	8	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	9	one	one	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	11	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	12	places	place	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	14	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	15	any	any	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	16	infectious	infectious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	17	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	19	expressing	express	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	20	symptoms	symptom	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	21	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	22	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	23	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	24	having	have	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	25	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	26	results	result	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	27	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	28	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	66	29	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	1	Note	note	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	2	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	3	-	-	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	4	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	6	construction	construction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	7	-	-	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	8	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	9	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	10	possible	possible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	11	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	12	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	13	infected	infect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	14	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	15	yet	yet	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	16	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	17	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	67	18	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	1	Crucially	crucially	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	4	transitions	transition	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	5	within	within	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	6	any	any	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	7	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	8	depend	depend	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	9	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	11	marginal	marginal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	12	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	14	other	other	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	15	factors	factor	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	68	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	1	For	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	2	example	example	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	5	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	7	becoming	become	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	8	infected	infect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	10	given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	11	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	12	one	one	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	13	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	14	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	15	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	16	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	18	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	19	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	20	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	21	one	one	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	22	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	23	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	24	home	home	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	25	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	26	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	27	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	69	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	1	Similarly	similarly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	4	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	6	developing	develop	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	7	symptoms	symptom	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	8	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	9	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	10	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	11	one	one	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	12	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	13	infected	infect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	14	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	15	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	70	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	2	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	4	being	be	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	5	testing	test	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	6	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	7	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	8	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	9	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	10	one	one	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	12	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	14	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	15	immune	immune	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	17	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	18	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	19	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	20	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	21	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	22	on	on	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	71	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	3	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	4	complete	complete	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	6	circular	circular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	7	dependency	dependency	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	10	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	12	leaving	leave	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	13	home	home	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	14	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	15	go	go	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	16	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	17	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	18	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	19	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	21	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	23	infected	infected	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	24	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	25	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	26	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	27	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	28	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	29	mediated	mediate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	30	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	31	social	social	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	32	distancing	distancing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	72	33	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	1	At	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	2	any	any	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	3	point	point	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	4	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	5	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	8	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	10	being	be	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	11	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	12	any	any	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	13	combination	combination	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	16	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	17	states	state	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	18	determines	determine	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	19	what	what	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	20	would	would	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	21	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	22	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	23	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	25	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	26	level	level	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	73	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	1	For	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	2	example	example	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	5	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	8	deceased	deceased	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	9	level	level	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	12	clinical	clinical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	13	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	14	determines	determine	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	16	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	17	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	18	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	19	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	20	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	21	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	22	recorded	record	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	23	deaths	death	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	74	24	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	1	Similarly	similarly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	4	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	7	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	8	level	level	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	11	testing	testing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	12	factor	factor	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	13	determines	determine	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	14	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	15	expected	expect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	16	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	17	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	18	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	19	cases	case	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	20	reported	report	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	75	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	1	From	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	2	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	3	expectations	expectation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	6	expected	expect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	7	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	9	new	new	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	10	cases	case	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	11	per	per	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	12	day	day	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	13	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	14	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	15	generated	generate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	76	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	1	A	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	2	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	3	detailed	detailed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	4	description	description	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	7	generative	generative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	8	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	9	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	10	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	11	found	find	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	12	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	13	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	14	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	15	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	77	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	1	Parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	2	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	3	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	4	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	5	comparison	comparison	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	6	relies	rely	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	7	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	8	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	9	variational	variational	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	10	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	11	approximation	approximation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	12	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	14	Daunizeau	Daunizeau	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	16	2018	2018	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	17	;	;	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	18	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	19	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	20	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	21	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	23	2007	2007	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	25	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	26	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	27	adopted	adopt	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	28	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	29	established	establish	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	30	computational	computational	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	31	neuroscience	neuroscience	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	32	toolboxes	toolbox	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	34	Ashburner	Ashburner	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	35	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	36	2012	2012	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	37	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	78	38	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	3	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	4	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	7	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	8	chosen	choose	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	9	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	10	implement	implement	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	12	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	14	covid	covid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	15	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	16	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	17	scratch	scratch	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	19	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	20	make	make	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	21	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	22	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	23	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	24	another	another	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	25	open	open	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	26	academic	academic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	27	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	28	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	29	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	30	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	31	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	32	toolbox	toolbox	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	34	Daunizeau	Daunizeau	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	35	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	36	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	37	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	38	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	39	2014	2014	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	40	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	79	41	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	2	did	do	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	3	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	4	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	5	provide	provide	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	6	software	software	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	7	validation	validation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	8	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	9	subsequent	subsequent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	10	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	11	analyses	analysis	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	12	performed	perform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	13	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	14	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	15	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	16	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	17	covid	covid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	18	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	80	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	3	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	4	semi	semi	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	5	-	-	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	6	informed	informed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	7	prior	prior	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	8	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	10	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	11	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	12	-in	-in	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	14	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	15	implementation	implementation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	16	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	17	places	place	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	18	hard	hard	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	19	constraints	constraint	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	20	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	21	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	22	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	23	ensure	ensure	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	24	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	25	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	26	stay	stay	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	27	within	within	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	28	admissible	admissible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	29	ranges	range	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	81	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	1	More	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	2	precisely	precisely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	4	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	5	constants	constant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	6	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	7	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	8	constants	constant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	9	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	10	derived	derive	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	11	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	12	passing	pass	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	13	unbounded	unbounded	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	14	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	15	through	through	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	16	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	17	exponential	exponential	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	18	mapping	mapping	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	19	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	20	sigmoid	sigmoid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	21	mapping	mapping	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	23	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	24	5	5	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	82	25	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	1	Table	table	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	2	1	1	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	3	below	below	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	4	recapitulates	recapitulate	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	6	unknown	unknown	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	7	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	10	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	11	terms	term	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	13	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	14	prior	prior	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	15	mean	mean	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	16	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	17	associated	associate	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	18	hard	hard	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	19	constraint	constraint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	83	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	3	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	4	country	country	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	5	5	5	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	6	Astute	astute	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	7	readers	reader	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	8	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	9	notice	notice	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	10	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	11	few	few	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	12	minor	minor	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	13	changes	change	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	14	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	16	original	original	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	17	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	18	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	19	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	20	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	21	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	22	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	23	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	24	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	25	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	84	26	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	2	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	5	hard	hard	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	6	sigmoid	sigmoid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	7	constraint	constraint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	8	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	9	transition	transition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	10	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	11	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	12	ensures	ensure	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	13	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	14	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	15	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	16	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	17	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	18	greater	great	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	19	than	than	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	20	one	one	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	85	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	86	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	87	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	87	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	87	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	87	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	87	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	87	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	88	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	89	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	90	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	90	2	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	91	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	91	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	2	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	3	pay	pay	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	4	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	5	attention	attention	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	6	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	7	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	9	N	n	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	10			NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	12	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	14	initial	initial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	15	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	16	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	17	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	18	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	19	among	among	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	21	country	country	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	22	's	's	POS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	23	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	92	24	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	3	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	4	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	5	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	6	eventually	eventually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	7	controls	control	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	9	quantitative	quantitative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	10	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	11	regarding	regard	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	12	specific	specific	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	13	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	15	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	16	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	17	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	18	acquired	acquire	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	19	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	20	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	21	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	23	end	end	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	24	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	25	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	26	epidemiologic	epidemiologic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	27	event	event	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	93	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	1	Note	note	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	2	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	3	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	4	type	type	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	6	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	8	critical	critical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	10	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	11	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	12	determines	determine	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	14	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	15	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	16	multiple	multiple	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	17	rebounds	rebound	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	19	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	20	waves	wave	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	24	COVID	covid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	25	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	26	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	27	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	28	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	29	if	if	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	30	confinement	confinement	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	31	measures	measure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	32	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	33	relaxed	relaxed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	94	34	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	1	Most	Most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	2	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	3	studies	study	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	4	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	5	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	6	actually	actually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	7	rely	rely	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	8	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	9	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	10	WHO	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	11	7	7	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	12	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	13	ECDC	ECDC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	14	8	8	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	15	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	16	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	18	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	19	gathers	gather	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	20	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	21	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	23	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	24	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	25	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	26	remission	remission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	27	counts	count	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	28	across	across	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	29	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	95	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	1	These	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	2	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	3	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	4	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	5	openly	openly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	6	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	7	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	8	part	part	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	10	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	11	global	global	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	12	collaborative	collaborative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	13	effort	effort	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	14	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	15	fight	fight	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	16	against	against	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	18	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	19	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	20	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	21	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	22	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	23	https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19	https://github.com/cssegisanddata/covid-19	UH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	96	25	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	1	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	3	remission	remission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	4	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	6	typically	typically	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	7	considered	consider	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	8	unreliable	unreliable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	10	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	12	evident	evident	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	13	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	14	established	establish	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	15	international	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	16	worldwide	worldwide	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	17	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	18	repositories	repository	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	19	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	20	prefer	prefer	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	21	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	22	report	report	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	23	consolidated	consolidated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	24	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	25	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	26	confirmed	confirm	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	27	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	28	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	29	counts	count	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	30	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	31	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	32	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	33	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	34	https://github.com/owid	https://github.com/owid	ADD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	97	36	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	2	effectively	effectively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	3	reduces	reduce	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	5	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	6	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	7	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	9	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	10	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	11	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	12	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	13	counts	count	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	15	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	16	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	17	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	18	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	19	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	20	rely	rely	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	21	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	22	including	include	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	23	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	24	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	25	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	26	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	27	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	28	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	29	indirectly	indirectly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	30	informed	inform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	31	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	32	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	33	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	34	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	35	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	36	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	37	acquired	acquire	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	38	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	39	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	40	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	41	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	42	end	end	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	43	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	44	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	45	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	46	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	47	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	48	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	98	49	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	1	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	3	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	4	few	few	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	5	governmental	governmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	6	agencies	agency	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	7	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	8	recently	recently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	9	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	10	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	11	effort	effort	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	12	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	13	assemble	assemble	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	14	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	15	make	make	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	16	openly	openly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	17	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	18	richer	rich	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	19	datasets	dataset	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	21	including	include	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	23	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	24	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	25	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	26	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	27	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	28	confirmed	confirm	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	29	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	30	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	31	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	32	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	33	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	99	34	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	1	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	3	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	4	France	France	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	5	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	6	https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/	https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	100	8	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	3	particularly	particularly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	4	relevant	relevant	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	5	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	6	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	7	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	8	context	context	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	10	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	11	recent	recent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	12	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	13	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	14	comprise	comprise	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	15	multiple	multiple	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	16	compartments	compartment	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	17	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	18	capture	capture	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	19	modern	modern	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	20	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	21	care	care	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	22	practices	practice	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	23	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	24	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	25	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	26	partially	partially	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	27	observable	observable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	28	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	29	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	30	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	31	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	101	32	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	102	1	https://ecosys.versailles-grignon.inra.fr/SpatialAgronomy/covid19/	https://ecosys.versailles-grignon.inra.fr/SpatialAgronomy/covid19/	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	102	2	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	102	3	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	1	As	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	2	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	3	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	4	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	5	studies	study	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	6	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	7	performed	perform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	8	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	10	COVID	covid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	11	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	13	previous	previous	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	14	applications	application	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	15	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	17	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	18	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	19	covid	covid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	20	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	21	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	22	fitted	fit	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	23	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	24	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	25	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	26	hereafter	hereafter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	28	1	1	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	29	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	30	o	o	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	31	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	32	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	33	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	34	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	35	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	36	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	37	2	2	LS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	38	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	39	o	o	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	40	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	41	counts	count	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	103	42	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	1	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	4	structure	structure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	7	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	8	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	9	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	10	associated	associate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	11	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	12	7	7	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	13	World	World	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	14	Health	Health	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	15	Organization	Organization	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	16	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	17	https://www.who.int/	https://www.who.int/	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	104	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	1	8	8	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	2	European	European	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	3	Centre	Centre	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	5	Disease	Disease	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	6	Prevention	Prevention	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	7	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	8	Control	Control	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	10	https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en	https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	12	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	105	13	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	106	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	107	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	107	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	107	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	107	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	107	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	107	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	108	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	109	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	110	1	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078485	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078485	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	110	2	doi	doi	XX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	110	3	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	1	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	2	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	3	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	4	makes	make	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	5	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	6	very	very	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	7	easy	easy	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	8	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	9	augment	augment	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	11	generated	generate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	12	outcome	outcome	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	13	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	14	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	15	remission	remission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	111	16	9	9	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	2	o	o	UH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	5	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	6	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	7	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	10	5	5	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	112	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	1	o	o	LS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	2	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	3	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	4	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	5	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	6	1	1	LS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	8	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	10	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	12	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	14	3	3	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	16	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	113	17	1,3	1,3	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	1	Tp	Tp	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	2			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	5	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	6	transition	transition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	7	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	8	towards	towards	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	10	location	location	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	11	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	12	'	'	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	13	home	home	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	14	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	114	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	115	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	116	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	116	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	116	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	116	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	116	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	116	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	117	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	118	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	119	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	119	2	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	2	/2020	/2020	NFP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	3	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	4	happen	happen	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	5	over	over	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	7	next	next	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	8	200	200	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	9	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	11	given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	12	what	what	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	13	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	14	happened	happen	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	15	during	during	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	17	past	past	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	18	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	19	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	120	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	1	As	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	3	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	4	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	7	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	10	ensuing	ensue	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	11	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	12	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	13	actually	actually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	14	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	15	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	16	how	how	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	17	far	far	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	18	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	19	country	country	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	21	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	22	respect	respect	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	23	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	25	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	26	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	27	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	28	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	29	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	30	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	31	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	32	terms	term	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	33	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	34	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	35	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	36	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	121	37	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	2	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	4	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	5	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	6	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	7	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	8	depend	depend	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	9	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	10	what	what	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	11	type	type	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	13	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	15	actually	actually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	16	provided	provide	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	17	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	18	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	19	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	20	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	122	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	2	thus	thus	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	3	simulated	simulate	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	4	1000	1000	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	5	datasets	dataset	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	6	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	7	varying	vary	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	8	phases	phase	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	11	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	13	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	14	could	could	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	15	emerge	emerge	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	16	either	either	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	17	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	18	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	19	after	after	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	21	first	first	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	23	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	25	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	26	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	27	samples	sample	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	123	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	2	did	do	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	3	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	4	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	5	randomly	randomly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	6	sampling	sample	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	8	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	9	set	set	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	10	around	around	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	12	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	13	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	14	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	16	French	french	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	17	gouv.fr	gouv.fr	ADD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	18	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	20	up	up	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	21	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	23	12	12	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	24	th	th	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	26	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	27	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	28	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	29	below	below	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	30	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	31	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	32	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	33	gathers	gather	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	34	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	35	five	five	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	36	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	37	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	38	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	124	39	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	1	For	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	2	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	3	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	4	set	set	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	7	simulated	simulate	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	9	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	10	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	11	covid	covid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	12	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	13	over	over	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	14	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	15	duration	duration	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	16	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	17	300	300	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	18	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	125	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	2	yielded	yield	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	3	realistic	realistic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	4	variations	variation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	5	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	6	epidemic	epidemic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	7	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	8	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	9	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	126	10	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	127	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	128	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	128	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	128	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	128	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	128	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	128	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	129	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	130	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	131	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	131	2	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	132	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	132	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	1	One	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	2	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	3	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	5	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	6	generated	generate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	7	outcome	outcome	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	8	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	9	exhibit	exhibit	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	10	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	11	simple	simple	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	12	transient	transient	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	14	eventually	eventually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	15	reaching	reach	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	17	disease	disease	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	18	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	19	free	free	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	20	equilibrium	equilibrium	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	21	state	state	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	23	where	where	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	24	0	0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	25	inf	inf	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	26	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	27	p	p	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	28			NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	29	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	133	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	4	one	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	5	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	6	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	8	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	9	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	10	collectively	collectively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	11	reminiscent	reminiscent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	14	variability	variability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	15	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	16	across	across	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	17	different	different	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	18	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	134	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	1	Each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	2	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	3	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	4	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	5	series	series	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	6	was	be	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	7	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	8	truncated	truncate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	9	up	up	RP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	10	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	12	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	13	th	th	XX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	14	day	day	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	16	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	17	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	18	fitted	fit	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	19	using	use	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	21	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	22	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	23	covid	covid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	24	VB	vb	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	25	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	26	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	135	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	2	considered	consider	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	3	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	4	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	5	variants	variant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	6	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	136	7			.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	1	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	2	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	4	full	full	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	5	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	7	comprising	comprise	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	9	five	five	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	10	observable	observable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	11	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	13	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	14	provided	provide	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	16	up	up	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	17	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	18	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	19	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	20	th	th	XX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	21	day	day	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	22	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	23	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	25	VB	VB	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	26	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	27	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	137	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	138	1			NFP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	1	VB1	vb1	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	2	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	3	remission	remission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	5	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	6	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	7	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	8	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	9	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	10	series	series	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	11	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	139	12	omitted	omit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	5	typical	typical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	6	situation	situation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	7	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	8	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	9	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	10	studies	study	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	11	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	12	far	far	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	140	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	1	For	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	2	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	3	simulated	simulate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	4	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	7	thus	thus	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	8	obtained	obtain	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	9	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	10	sets	set	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	12	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	13	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	15	one	one	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	16	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	17	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	18	VB	VB	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	19	inversion	inversion	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	20	schemes	scheme	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	141	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	2	derive	derive	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	4	ensuing	ensue	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	5	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	6	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	7	simulating	simulate	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	9	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	10	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	12	remaining	remain	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	13	200	200	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	14	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	16	given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	17	each	each	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	18	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	19	those	those	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	20	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	21	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	22	sets	set	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	142	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	2	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	3	estimated	estimate	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	5	following	follow	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	6	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	7	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	8	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	9	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	10	metrics	metric	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	11	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	12			NFP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	13	Peak	Peak	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	14	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	15	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	16	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	18	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	19	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	20	define	define	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	21	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	22	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	23	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	24			NFP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	25	Maximum	Maximum	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	26	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	27	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	143	28	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	144	1	max	max	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	144	2	max	max	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	144	3	tt	tt	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	144	4	tt	tt	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	144	5	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	145	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	146	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	146	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	146	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	146	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	146	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	146	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	147	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	148	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	2	then	then	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	3	analysed	analyse	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	5	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	8	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	9	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	10	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	11	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	12	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	14	peak	peak	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	15			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	17	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	18	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	19	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	20	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	21	cf	cf	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	149	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	1	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	2	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	3	VB	VB	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	4	variants	variant	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	6	onto	onto	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	8	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	9	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	10	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	11	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	12	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	13	scores	score	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	14	above	above	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	150	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	1	a.	a.	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	2	Influence	influence	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	4	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	5	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	6	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	7	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	8	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	10	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	11	availability	availability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	12	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	13	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	14	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	15	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	151	16	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	1	One	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	2	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	3	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	6	relationship	relationship	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	8	highly	highly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	9	variable	variable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	11	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	12	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	13	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	14	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	15	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	16	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	17	clearly	clearly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	18	non	non	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	19	-	-	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	20	negligible	negligible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	152	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	1	Importantly	importantly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	3	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	4	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	6	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	7	due	due	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	8	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	9	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	10	underfitting	underfitting	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	153	12	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	154	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	155	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	155	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	155	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	155	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	155	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	155	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	156	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	157	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	158	1	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078485	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078485	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	158	2	doi	doi	XX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	158	3	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	1	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	2	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	3	since	since	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	5	percentage	percentage	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	7	explained	explained	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	8	variance	variance	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	9	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	10	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	11	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	12	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	13	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	15	up	up	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	16	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	17	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	18	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	21	always	always	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	22	greater	great	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	23	than	than	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	24	95	95	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	159	25	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	160	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	160	2	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	160	3	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	1	mean	mean	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	2	R	R	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	3	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	4	=	=	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	5	99	99	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	6	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	8	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	161	9	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	1	mean	mean	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	2	R	R	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	3	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	4	=	=	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	5	99	99	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	6	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	162	8	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	3	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	5	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	6	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	7	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	8	due	due	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	9	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	10	non	non	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	11	-	-	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	12	identifiability	identifiability	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	163	13	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	2	structure	structure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	4	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	5	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	7	most	most	RBS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	8	apparent	apparent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	9	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	10	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	11	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	12	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	14	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	16	cf	cf	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	17	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	18	upper	upper	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	19	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	20	left	left	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	21	panel	panel	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	22	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	23	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	24	3	3	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	164	26	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	1	When	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	3	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	4	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	5	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	6	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	7	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	8	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	9	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	10	peak	peak	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	11			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	12			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	14	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	15	correlation	correlation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	16	between	between	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	17	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	18	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	19	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	20	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	21	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	22	topeaks	topeaks	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	23	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	25	initial	initial	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	26	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	27	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	28	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	29	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	30	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	31	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	32	almost	almost	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	33	perfect	perfect	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	165	34	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	1	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	3	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	4	correlation	correlation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	5	quickly	quickly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	6	falls	fall	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	7	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	9	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	10	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	11	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	12	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	14	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	15	increases	increase	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	16	beyond	beyond	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	18	temporal	temporal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	19	window	window	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	21	observed	observed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	22	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	23	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	24	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	25	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	26	so	so	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	27	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	28	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	29	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	30	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	31	restricted	restrict	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	32	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	33	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	34	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	35	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	36	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	37	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	38	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	39	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	40	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	41	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	42	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	166	43	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	2	structure	structure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	4	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	5	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	6	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	7	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	9	less	less	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	10	explicit	explicit	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	11	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	12	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	14	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	167	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	2	now	now	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	3	evaluate	evaluate	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	5	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	7	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	8	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	9	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	10	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	11	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	12	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	13	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	14	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	15	availability	availability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	16	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	17	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	18	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	19	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	20	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	168	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	1	First	first	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	4	split	split	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	6	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	7	according	accord	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	8	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	9	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	11	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	12	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	13	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	14	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	15	arose	arise	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	16	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	18	last	last	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	19	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	20	sample	sample	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	22	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	23			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	24			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	25	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	26	"	"	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	27	early	early	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	28	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	29	"	"	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	30	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	31	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	32	after	after	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	34	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	35			NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	36			NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	37	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	38	"	"	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	39	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	40	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	41	"	"	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	42	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	169	43	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	2	enabled	enable	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	3	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	4	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	5	ask	ask	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	6	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	8	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	9	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	10	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	11	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	12	above	above	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	13	were	be	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	14	higher	high	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	15	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	16	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	17	than	than	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	18	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	19	early	early	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	20	peaks	peak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	170	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	1	Figure	figure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	2	4	4	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	3	below	below	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	4	summarizes	summarize	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	6	simulation	simulation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	7	results	result	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	9	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	10	terms	term	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	13	influence	influence	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	15	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	16	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	17	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	18	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	19	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	20	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	21	early	early	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	22	versus	versus	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	23	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	24	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	26	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	27	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	28	availability	availability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	29	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	30	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	31	versus	versus	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	32	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	33	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	34	onto	onto	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	35	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	36	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	37	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	38	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	171	39	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	172	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	173	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	1	To	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	2	begin	begin	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	3	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	5	note	note	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	7	typical	typical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	8	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	9	magnitude	magnitude	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	10	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	12	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	13	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	15	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	16	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	17	timeto	timeto	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	18	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	19	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	20	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	21	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	24	order	order	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	26	20	20	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	27	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	28	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	29	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	30	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	31	count	count	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	32	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	33	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	34	about	about	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	35	10,000	10,000	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	36	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	37	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	38	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	39	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	40	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	41	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	42	initial	initial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	43	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	44	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	45	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	46	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	47	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	48	10	10	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	49	millions	million	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	50	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	51	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	52	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	53	maximum	maximum	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	54	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	55	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	56	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	57	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	58	around	around	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	59	10,000	10,000	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	174	60	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	1	These	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	2	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	3	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	4	beyond	beyond	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	5	acceptable	acceptable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	6	limits	limit	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	8	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	9	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	10	practical	practical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	11	applications	application	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	12	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	13	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	14	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	15	policies	policy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	175	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	1	But	but	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	3	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	5	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	6	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	8	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	9	magnitudes	magnitude	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	10	depend	depend	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	11	sensitively	sensitively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	12	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	13	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	14	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	15	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	16	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	17	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	18	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	19	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	20	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	176	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	1	One	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	2	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	3	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	4	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	5	clear	clear	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	6	influence	influence	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	9	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	10	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	11	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	12	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	13	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	14	onto	onto	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	15	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	16	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	17	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	18	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	19	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	20	measures	measure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	177	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	2	brief	brief	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	4	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	5	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	6	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	7	both	both	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	8	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	10	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	11	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	12	much	much	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	13	less	less	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	14	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	15	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	16	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	17	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	18	performed	perform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	19	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	21	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	22	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	23	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	24	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	25	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	26	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	28	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	29	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	30	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	178	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	2	transpires	transpire	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	3	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	5	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	7	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	8	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	9	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	10	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	11	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	13	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	16	early	early	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	17	peaks	peak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	19	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	20	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	21	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	22	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	23	significantly	significantly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	24	higher	high	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	25	than	than	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	26	VB1	vb1	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	27	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	28	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	29	both	both	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	30	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	31	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	32	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	33	p<10	p<10	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	34	-4	-4	ADD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	36	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	37	initial	initial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	38	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	39	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	40	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	41	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	42	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	43	p<10	p<10	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	44	-4	-4	ADD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	45	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	179	46	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	2	contrast	contrast	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	4	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	6	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	8	yet	yet	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	9	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	10	manifest	manifest	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	12	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	13	peaks	peak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	16	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	18	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	19	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	20	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	21	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	22	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	23	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	24	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	25	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	26	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	27	significantly	significantly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	28	worse	bad	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	29	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	30	VB1	vb1	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	31	than	than	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	32	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	33	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	34	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	35	p<10	p<10	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	36	-4	-4	ADD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	37	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	180	38	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	1	Interestingly	interestingly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	4	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	5	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	6	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	8	highest	high	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	9	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	10	VB1	vb1	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	11	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	13	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	14	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	15	already	already	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	16	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	17	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	19	cf	cf	XX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	181	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	182	1	lower	lower	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	182	2	right	right	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	182	3	panel	panel	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	182	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	182	5	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	2	counterintuitive	counterintuitive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	3	result	result	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	4	derives	derive	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	5	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	7	fact	fact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	8	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	9	default	default	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	10	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	11	explanations	explanation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	13	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	14	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	15	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	16	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	17	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	18	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	19	favour	favour	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	20	overestimated	overestimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	21	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	22	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	23	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	24	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	25	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	26	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	27	VB1	vb1	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	28	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	29	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	183	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	184	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	185	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	185	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	185	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	185	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	185	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	185	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	186	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	187	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	1	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	2	constrained	constrain	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	3	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	4	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	5	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	6	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	188	8	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	2	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	3	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	4	clearer	clear	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	5	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	6	analysing	analyse	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	8	French	french	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	9	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	10	below	below	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	189	11	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	2	summary	summary	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	5	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	7	almost	almost	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	8	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	9	predicted	predict	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	10	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	12	severely	severely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	13	impacted	impact	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	14	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	16	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	17	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	18	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	19	performed	perform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	20	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	21	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	22	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	23	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	24	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	25	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	26	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	190	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	4	ignoring	ignore	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	5	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	6	such	such	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	7	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	8	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	9	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	10	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	11	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	12	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	13	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	14	strongly	strongly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	15	impairs	impair	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	17	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	18	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	19	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	20	initial	initial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	21	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	23	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	24	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	25	as	as	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	26	well	well	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	27	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	28	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	29	maximum	maximum	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	30	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	31	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	32	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	33	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	34	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	35	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	36	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	37	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	38	analysed	analyse	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	39	>	>	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	40	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	41	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	42	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	43	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	44	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	45	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	46	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	47	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	48	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	191	49	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	2	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	3	now	now	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	4	illustrate	illustrate	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	5	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	6	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	9	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	12	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	13	's	's	POS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	14	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	15	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	16	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	17	using	use	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	18	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	19	single	single	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	20	country	country	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	21	's	's	POS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	22	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	192	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	2	focus	focus	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	3	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	4	French	french	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	5	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	7	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	8	governmental	governmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	9	agencies	agency	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	10	provide	provide	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	11	additional	additional	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	12	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	13	11	11	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	15	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	16	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	17	missing	miss	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	18	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	19	WHO	WHO	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	20	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	21	ECDC	ECDC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	22	databases	database	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	23	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	24	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	26	today	today	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	27	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	193	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	1	Note	note	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	2	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	3	reported	report	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	4	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	5	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	6	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	7	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	8	restricted	restrict	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	9	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	10	hospital	hospital	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	11	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	13	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	14	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	15	does	do	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	16	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	17	include	include	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	18	those	those	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	19	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	20	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	21	do	do	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	22	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	23	die	die	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	24	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	25	hospitals	hospital	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	26	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	27	c.f	c.f	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	194	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	195	1	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	195	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	195	3	retirement	retirement	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	195	4	homes	home	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	195	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	195	6	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	2	pre	pre	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	3	-	-	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	4	processed	process	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	6	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	7	series	series	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	8	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	9	correct	correct	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	10	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	11	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	12	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	13	various	various	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	14	counting	counting	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	15	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	16	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	17	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	18	below	below	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	196	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	2	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	3	padded	pad	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	5	governmental	governmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	6	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	7	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	8	ECDC	ECDC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	9	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	10	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	12	1	1	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	13	st	st	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	15	January	January	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	16	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	18	18	18	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	19	th	th	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	21	March	March	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	23	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	24	both	both	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	25	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	26	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	27	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	28	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	29	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	30	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	31	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	32	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	33	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	34	dates	date	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	35	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	36	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	37	reported	report	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	38	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	39	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	40	online	online	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	41	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	42	governmental	governmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	43	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	44	repositories	repository	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	197	45	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	2	means	mean	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	3	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	4	there	there	EX
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	6	missing	miss	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	7	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	8	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	9	both	both	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	10	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	11	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	12	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	13	total	total	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	14	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	15	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	198	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	1	Figure	figure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	2	  	  	_SP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	3	5	5	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	4	below	below	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	5	shows	show	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	7	effect	effect	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	9	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	10	smoothing	smooth	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	11	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	13	observed	observed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	199	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	200	1	11	11	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	1	These	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	2	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	3	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	4	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	5	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	6	online	online	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	7	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	201	8	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	202	1	https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-hospitalieresrelatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/	https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-hospitalieresrelatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/	UH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	202	2	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	202	3	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	202	4	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	203	1	https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-relatives-auxtests-de-depistage-de-covid-19-realises-en-laboratoire-de-ville/.	https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-relatives-auxtests-de-depistage-de-covid-19-realises-en-laboratoire-de-ville/.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	203	2	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	204	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	205	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	205	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	205	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	205	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	205	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	205	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	206	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	207	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	1	One	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	2	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	3	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	6	native	native	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	7	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	8	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	9	total	total	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	10	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	11	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	12	exhibit	exhibit	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	13	strong	strong	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	14	periodic	periodic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	15	dips	dip	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	208	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	1	Inspection	inspection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	2	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	4	corresponding	corresponding	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	5	dates	date	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	6	show	show	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	8	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	9	dips	dip	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	10	correspond	correspond	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	11	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	12	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	13	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	14	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	15	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	16	weekends	weekend	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	209	17	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	1	Data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	2	pre	pre	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	3	-	-	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	4	processing	processing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	5	corrects	correct	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	6	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	8	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	9	inconsistencies	inconsistency	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	11	without	without	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	12	impacting	impact	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	13	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	14	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	15	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	16	cumulated	cumulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	17	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	19	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	20	shown	show	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	210	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	2	conducted	conduct	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	3	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	4	analyses	analysis	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	5	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	6	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	7	corrected	correct	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	8	datasets	dataset	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	10	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	11	either	either	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	12	fitting	fitting	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	13	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	14	reported	report	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	15	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	16	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	17	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	19	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	20	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	21	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	22	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	23	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	24	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	25	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	26	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	28	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	29	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	211	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	1	Figure	figure	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	2	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	3	below	below	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	4	summarizes	summarize	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	6	ensuing	ensue	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	7	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	8	fits	fit	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	10	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	11	predicted	predict	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	12	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	13	100	100	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	14	days	day	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	15	beyond	beyond	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	17	last	last	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	18	reported	report	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	19	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	212	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	213	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	214	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	214	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	214	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	214	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	214	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	214	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	215	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	216	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	217	1	Recall	Recall	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	1	that	that	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	2	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	3	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	4	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	5	both	both	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	6	attempt	attempt	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	7	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	8	account	account	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	9	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	10	observed	observed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	11	daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	12	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	13	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	14	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	15	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	16	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	17	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	218	18	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	1	One	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	2	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	3	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	5	both	both	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	6	succeed	succeed	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	7	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	8	explaining	explain	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	9	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	10	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	11	series	series	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	12	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	13	very	very	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	14	high	high	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	15	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	219	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	2	fact	fact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	4	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	5	explains	explain	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	6	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	7	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	8	better	well	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	9	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	11	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	12	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	13	tries	try	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	14	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	15	concurrently	concurrently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	16	fit	fit	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	17	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	18	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	19	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	20	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	21	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	22	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	220	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	1	Here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	2	again	again	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	4	observed	observe	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	5	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	6	series	series	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	7	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	8	very	very	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	9	well	well	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	10	explained	explain	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	12	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	13	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	14	R	r	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	15	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	16	[	[	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	17	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	18	occupancy]=95	occupancy]=95	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	19	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	21	R	r	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	22	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	23	[	[	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	24	total	total	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	221	25	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	222	1	rate]=95	rate]=95	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	222	2	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	222	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	222	4	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	2	contrast	contrast	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	4	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	5	's	's	POS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	6	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	8	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	9	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	10	series	series	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	11	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	12	substantially	substantially	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	13	overestimated	overestimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	223	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	3	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	4	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	5	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	7	unknowingly	unknowingly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	9	overfitted	overfitte	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	11	positive	positive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	12	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	13	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	15	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	16	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	17	resulted	result	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	18	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	19	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	20	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	21	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	224	22	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	2	situation	situation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	4	quite	quite	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	5	different	different	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	6	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	7	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	8	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	9	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	10	had	have	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	11	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	12	find	find	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	13	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	14	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	15	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	16	yield	yield	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	17	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	18	balanced	balanced	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	19	trade	trade	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	20	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	21	off	off	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	22	between	between	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	23	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	24	concurrent	concurrent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	25	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	26	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	225	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	2	observation	observation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	3	recapitulates	recapitulate	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	5	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	6	results	result	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	7	regarding	regard	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	8	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	9	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	10	error	error	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	12	although	although	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	13	France	France	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	15	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	16	lying	lie	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	17	in	in	RP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	18	between	between	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	19	typical	typical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	20	early	early	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	21	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	22	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	23	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	24	phases	phase	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	26	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	226	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	227	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	228	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	228	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	228	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	228	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	228	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	228	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	229	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	230	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	231	1	https://doi.org/10.1101	https://doi.org/10.1101	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	231	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	1	Although	although	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	2	fit	fit	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	3	accuracies	accuracy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	5	common	common	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	6	datasets	dataset	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	7	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	8	comparable	comparable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	10	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	11	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	12	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	13	make	make	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	14	remarkably	remarkably	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	15	different	different	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	16	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	232	17	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	3	illustrated	illustrate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	4	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	5	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	6	7	7	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	7	below	below	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	233	8	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	1	First	first	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	4	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	5	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	6	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	8	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	9	th	th	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	11	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	12	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	13	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	15	whereas	whereas	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	16	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	17	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	18	2	2	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	19	nd	nd	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	21	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	22	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	23	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	24	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	25	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	26	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	27	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	28	seen	see	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	29	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	30	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	31	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	32	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	234	33	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	1	Second	second	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	4	predicted	predict	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	5	cumulated	cumulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	6	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	7	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	8	after	after	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	10	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	11	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	12	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	13	clearly	clearly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	14	differ	differ	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	235	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	1	For	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	2	VB0	VB0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	4	predicted	predict	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	5	cumulated	cumulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	6	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	7	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	8	should	should	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	9	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	10	15799	15799	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	11	+	+	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	12	/-255	/-255	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	14	11635	11635	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	15	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	16	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	17	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	18	18-Apr-2020	18-apr-2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	21	whereas	whereas	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	22	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	23	VB1	vb1	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	24	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	25	predicted	predict	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	26	cumulated	cumulated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	27	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	28	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	29	should	should	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	30	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	31	13450	13450	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	32	+	+	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	33	/-124	/-124	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	236	34	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	2	brief	brief	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	4	ignoring	ignore	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	5	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	6	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	7	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	8	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	9	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	10	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	11	yield	yield	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	12	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	13	outbreaks	outbreak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	14	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	15	terminate	terminate	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	16	sooner	soon	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	17	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	18	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	19	less	less	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	20	severe	severe	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	22	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	23	terms	term	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	24	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	25	casualties	casualty	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	26	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	237	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	1	Third	third	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	3	recall	recall	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	6	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	7	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	8	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	9	used	use	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	10	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	11	derive	derive	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	12	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	14	effective	effective	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	15	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	16	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	18	R0	R0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	20	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	21	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	23	expected	expect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	24	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	26	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	27	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	28	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	29	infected	infect	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	30	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	31	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	32	COVID	covid	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	33	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	34	carrier	carrier	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	238	35	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	2	summary	summary	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	3	statistics	statistic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	6	infectiousness	infectiousness	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	9	epidemics	epidemic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	10	varies	vary	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	11	over	over	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	12	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	14	depending	depend	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	15	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	17	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	18	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	19	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	20	stay	stay	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	21	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	22	home	home	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	23	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	239	24	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	240	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	240	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	240	3	changes	change	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	240	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	240	5	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	241	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	242	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	242	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	242	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	242	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	242	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	242	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	243	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	244	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	245	1	https://doi.org/10.1101	https://doi.org/10.1101	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	245	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	1	effective	effective	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	2	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	4	social	social	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	5	contacts	contact	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	8	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	10	probability	probability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	12	being	be	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	13	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	14	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	16	disease	disease	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	246	17	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	2	refer	refer	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	4	interested	interested	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	5	reader	reader	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	6	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	7	Equation	equation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	8	1.9	1.9	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	9	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	10	Friston	Friston	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	11	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	12	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	247	13	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	2	turns	turn	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	3	out	out	RP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	5	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	7	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	8	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	11	effective	effective	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	12	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	13	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	14	'	'	POS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	15	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	16	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	17	clearly	clearly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	18	higher	high	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	19	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	20	accounting	account	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	21	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	22	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	23	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	24	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	25	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	26	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	27	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	28	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	29	cf	cf	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	30	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	31	upper	upper	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	32	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	33	right	right	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	34	panel	panel	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	35	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	36	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	37	7	7	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	38	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	248	39	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	1	Note	note	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	2	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	3	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	4	effective	effective	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	5	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	6	rate	rate	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	7	starts	start	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	8	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	9	decrease	decrease	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	10	roughly	roughly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	11	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	13	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	15	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	16	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	18	Tuesday	Tuesday	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	19	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	20	17	17	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	21	th	th	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	23	March	March	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	249	25	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	3	interesting	interesting	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	4	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	6	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	8	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	9	informed	inform	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	10	about	about	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	11	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	12	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	13	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	14	event	event	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	250	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	1	More	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	2	precisely	precisely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	4	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	5	defines	define	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	6	social	social	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	7	distancing	distancing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	8	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	9	terms	term	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	12	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	13	hidden	hidden	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	15	behaviour	behaviour	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	16	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	17	citizens	citizen	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	19	without	without	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	20	assuming	assume	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	21	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	22	everyone	everyone	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	23	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	25	governmental	governmental	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	26	containment	containment	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	27	instructions	instruction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	251	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	3	accounting	account	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	5	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	6	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	7	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	8	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	9	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	10	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	11	produce	produce	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	12	more	more	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	13	uncertain	uncertain	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	14	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	15	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	16	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	17	cf	cf	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	252	18	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	1	lower	low	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	2	panels	panel	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	3	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	4	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	5	7	7	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	253	7	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	3	most	most	RBS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	4	likely	likely	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	5	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	6	VB1	VB1	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	7	overfits	overfits	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	9	observed	observed	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	10	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	12	effectively	effectively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	13	yielding	yield	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	14	underestimated	underestimated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	16	overconfident	overconfident	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	17	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	18	evaluations	evaluation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	20	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	21	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	22	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	254	23	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	3	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	6	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	7	evaluated	evaluate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	9	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	11	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	12	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	13	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	14	estimations	estimation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	15	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	16	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	17	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	18	four	four	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	19	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	21	interest	interest	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	22	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	24	context	context	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	26	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	27	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	28	COVID	covid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	29	pandemics	pandemic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	255	30	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	2	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	3	shown	show	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	4	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	6	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	8	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	9	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	10	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	11	sensitively	sensitively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	12	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	13	whether	whether	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	14	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	15	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	16	derived	derive	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	17	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	18	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	19	after	after	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	21	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	22	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	23	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	256	24	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	5	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	6	shown	show	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	7	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	8	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	9	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	11	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	12	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	14	ignoring	ignore	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	15	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	16	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	17	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	18	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	19	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	20	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	22	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	23	accentuate	accentuate	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	24	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	25	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	26	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	27	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	28	even	even	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	29	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	30	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	31	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	32	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	33	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	34	already	already	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	35	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	36	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	257	37	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	3	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	4	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	5	estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	7	initial	initial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	8	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	9	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	10	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	11	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	13	given	give	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	14	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	15	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	16	determines	determine	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	18	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	19	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	20	acquired	acquire	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	21	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	23	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	24	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	25	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	26	end	end	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	27	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	28	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	29	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	30	event	event	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	258	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	2	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	3	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	4	illustrated	illustrate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	6	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	8	discounting	discount	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	9	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	10	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	11	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	12	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	13	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	14	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	15	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	16	French	french	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	17	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	18	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	19	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	20	date	date	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	259	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	3	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	4	timely	timely	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	5	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	7	since	since	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	8	France	France	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	9	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	11	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	12	all	all	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	13	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	15	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	16	experiencing	experience	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	17	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	18	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	21	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	22	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	23	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	260	24	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	2	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	3	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	5	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	6	significant	significant	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	7	marker	marker	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	9	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	10	rise	rise	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	11	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	12	fall	fall	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	14	distinct	distinct	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	15	transient	transient	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	16	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	17	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	19	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	20	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	21	associated	associated	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	22	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	23	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	24	measures	measure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	26	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	27	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	28	late	late	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	29	phase	phase	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	30	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	31	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	32	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	33	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	34	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	35	inform	inform	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	36	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	37	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	261	38	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	3	reminiscent	reminiscent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	5	what	what	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	6	could	could	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	7	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	262	8	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	263	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	264	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	264	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	264	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	264	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	264	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	264	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	265	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	266	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	267	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	267	2	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	268	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	268	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	1	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	2	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	3	DCMs	dcms	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	5	neural	neural	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	6	responses	response	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	8	where	where	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	9	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	10	instance	instance	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	11	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	13	key	key	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	14	role	role	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	15	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	16	feedback	feedback	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	17	connections	connection	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	18	between	between	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	19	neuronal	neuronal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	20	populations	population	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	21	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	22	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	23	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	24	evidenced	evidence	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	25	once	once	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	26	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	27	first	first	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	28	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	29	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	30	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	31	electrophysiological	electrophysiological	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	32	evoked	evoke	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	33	response	response	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	34	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	35	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	269	36	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	2	Garrido	Garrido	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	3	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	5	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	7	2007	2007	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	270	9	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	1	Here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	3	some	some	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	4	key	key	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	5	hidden	hide	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	6	biological	biological	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	7	processes	process	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	10	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	11	associated	associate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	12	unknown	unknown	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	13	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	15	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	16	only	only	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	17	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	18	reliably	reliably	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	19	inferred	infer	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	20	after	after	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	21	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	22	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	23	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	24	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	25	transient	transient	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	26	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	271	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	1	Having	have	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	2	said	say	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	3	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	5	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	6	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	8	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	9	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	10	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	11	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	12	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	13	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	14	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	15	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	16	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	17	passed	pass	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	18	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	19	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	20	yet	yet	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	22	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	23	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	24	still	still	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	25	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	26	case	case	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	27	now	now	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	28	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	29	could	could	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	30	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	31	fact	fact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	32	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	33	improved	improve	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	34	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	35	informing	inform	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	36	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	37	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	38	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	39	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	40	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	41	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	42	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	43	where	where	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	44	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	45	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	46	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	47	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	48	already	already	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	49	been	be	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	50	observed	observe	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	51	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	52	using	use	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	53	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	54	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	55	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	56	hierarchical	hierarchical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	57	empirical	empirical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	58	Bayes	Bayes	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	59	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	60	Kass	Kass	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	61	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	62	Steffey	Steffey	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	63	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	64	1989	1989	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	65	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	272	66	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	1	At	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	3	European	european	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	4	level	level	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	5	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	6	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	8	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	9	speaks	speak	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	10	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	12	common	common	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	13	effort	effort	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	14	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	15	gather	gather	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	16	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	17	share	share	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	18	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	273	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	1	From	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	2	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	3	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	4	perspective	perspective	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	6	one	one	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	7	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	8	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	9	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	10	surprised	surprised	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	11	that	that	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	12	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	13	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	14	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	15	errors	error	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	16	decrease	decrease	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	17	when	when	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	18	augmenting	augment	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	19	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	20	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	21	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	22	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	23	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	24	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	25	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	26	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	27	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	28	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	274	29	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	1	What	what	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	3	remarkable	remarkable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	4	however	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	7	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	8	quantitative	quantitative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	9	difference	difference	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	10	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	11	makes	make	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	12	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	13	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	15	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	16	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	17	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	18	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	19	effective	effective	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	20	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	21	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	23	see	see	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	24	Figures	figure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	25	6	6	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	26	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	27	7	7	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	28	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	275	29	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	1	More	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	2	remarkable	remarkable	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	5	interaction	interaction	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	7	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	8	paucity	paucity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	10	timing	timing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	12	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	13	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	14	respect	respect	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	15	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	17	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	18	peak	peak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	276	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	1	More	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	2	generally	generally	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	4	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	5	those	those	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	6	particular	particular	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	7	times	time	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	8	where	where	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	9	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	11	high	high	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	12	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	13	decisions	decision	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	14	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	15	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	16	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	17	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	18	as	as	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	19	quickly	quickly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	20	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	21	possible	possible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	22	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	23	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	24	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	25	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	26	particularly	particularly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	27	important	important	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	28	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	29	complement	complement	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	30	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	31	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	32	quantitative	quantitative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	33	assessments	assessment	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	34	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	35	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	36	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	37	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	38	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	39	limits	limit	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	40	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	41	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	42	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	43	approaches	approach	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	277	44	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	1	As	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	2	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	3	side	side	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	4	point	point	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	5	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	7	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	8	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	9	addressed	address	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	11	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	15	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	16	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	17	used	use	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	18	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	19	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	20	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	278	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	1	Daily	daily	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	2	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	3	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	4	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	5	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	6	example	example	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	8	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	9	potentially	potentially	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	10	problematic	problematic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	11	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	12	at	at	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	13	least	least	RBS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	14	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	15	reasons	reason	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	279	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	1	First	first	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	3	different	different	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	4	data	data	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	5	repositories	repository	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	6	effectively	effectively	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	7	give	give	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	8	different	different	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	9	numbers	number	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	10	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	11	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	13	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	14	deceased	decease	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	15	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	16	hospitals	hospital	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	18	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	21	case	case	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	22	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	24	French	french	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	25	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	26	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	27	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	28	presented	present	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	29	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	30	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	31	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	32	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	33	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	34	hospitals	hospital	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	35	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	36	retirement	retirement	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	37	homes	home	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	280	38	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	1	Second	second	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	3	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	4	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	5	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	6	account	account	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	7	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	8	"	"	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	9	normal	normal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	10	"	"	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	11	seasonal	seasonal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	12	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	14	Goldstein	Goldstein	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	15	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	16	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	17	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	19	2012	2012	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	20	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	21	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	22	though	though	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	23	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	24	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	25	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	26	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	27	case	case	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	28	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	29	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	30	because	because	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	31	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	32	hospital	hospital	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	33	death	death	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	34	counts	count	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	35	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	36	confirmed	confirm	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	37	COVID	covid	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	38	cases	case	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	39	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	281	40	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	1	Testing	testing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	2	procedures	procedure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	3	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	4	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	5	imperfect	imperfect	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	6	sensitivity	sensitivity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	7	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	8	specificity	specificity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	10	Patel	Patel	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	11	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	12	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	13	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	15	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	17	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	18	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	19	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	20	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	21	actually	actually	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	22	depend	depend	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	23	upon	upon	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	24	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	25	clinical	clinical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	26	criteria	criterion	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	28	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	29	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	30	respiratory	respiratory	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	31	support	support	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	32	versus	versus	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	33	reanimation	reanimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	282	35	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	1	All	all	PDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	2	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	3	limitations	limitation	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	4	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	5	difficult	difficult	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	7	though	though	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	8	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	9	impossible	impossible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	11	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	12	account	account	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	13	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	14	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	15	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	16	further	further	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	17	challenge	challenge	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	18	even	even	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	19	further	far	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	20	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	21	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	23	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	24	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	25	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	26	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	27	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	283	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	284	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	285	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	285	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	285	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	285	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	285	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	285	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	286	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	2	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	3	was	be	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	4	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	5	certified	certify	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	6	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	7	peer	peer	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	8	review	review	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	287	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	288	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	289	1	https://doi.org/10.1101	https://doi.org/10.1101	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	289	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	1	Contrary	contrary	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	2	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	3	most	most	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	4	papers	paper	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	5	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	6	focus	focus	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	7	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	8	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	9	definition	definition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	10	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	11	extension	extension	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	14	approach	approach	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	15	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	16	tackles	tackle	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	17	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	18	assessment	assessment	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	19	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	20	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	21	believe	believe	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	22	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	23	become	become	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	24	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	25	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	26	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	27	important	important	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	28	as	as	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	29	more	more	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	30	alternative	alternative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	31	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	32	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	33	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	34	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	35	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	36	account	account	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	37	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	38	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	39	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	40	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	41	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	42	influence	influence	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	43	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	44	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	45	decisions	decision	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	290	46	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	2	applies	apply	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	3	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	5	DCM	DCM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	7	COVID	COVID	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	8	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	9	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	10	evaluate	evaluate	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	11	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	13	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	15	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	16	being	be	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	17	refined	refine	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	18	along	along	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	19	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	20	lines	line	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	291	21	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	2	kind	kind	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	4	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	5	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	6	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	7	need	need	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	8	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	9	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	10	acquired	acquire	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	11	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	12	inform	inform	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	13	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	14	ensuing	ensue	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	15	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	16	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	17	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	18	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	19	issue	issue	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	20	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	21	primary	primary	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	22	practical	practical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	23	importance	importance	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	24	if	if	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	25	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	26	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	27	similar	similar	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	28	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	29	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	30	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	31	guide	guide	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	32	public	public	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	33	health	health	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	34	decisions	decision	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	292	35	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	1	Performing	perform	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	2	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	3	type	type	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	5	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	6	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	7	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	8	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	9	models	model	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	11	beyond	beyond	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	13	scope	scope	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	14	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	16	current	current	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	17	work	work	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	293	18	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	1	However	however	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	2	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	3	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	4	results	result	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	5	highlight	highlight	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	7	need	need	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	8	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	9	evaluating	evaluate	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	11	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	13	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	14	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	15	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	16	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	17	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	18	used	use	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	19	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	20	national	national	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	21	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	22	international	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	23	socio	socio	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	24	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	25	political	political	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	26	decision	decision	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	27	makers	maker	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	294	28	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	1	They	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	2	also	also	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	3	motivate	motivate	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	5	gathering	gathering	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	6	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	7	multiple	multiple	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	8	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	9	time	time	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	10	series	series	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	11	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	12	making	make	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	13	them	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	14	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	15	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	17	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	18	community	community	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	295	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	1	This	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	2	requirement	requirement	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	3	obviously	obviously	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	4	extends	extend	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	5	beyond	beyond	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	6	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	7	occupancy	occupancy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	8	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	9	negative	negative	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	10	test	test	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	11	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	12	Salomon	Salomon	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	13	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	14	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	296	16	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	3	near	near	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	4	future	future	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	5	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	6	instance	instance	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	8	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	9	about	about	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	11	number	number	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	12	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	13	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	14	cases	case	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	15	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	17	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	18	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	19	about	about	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	20	how	how	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	21	infectious	infectious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	22	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	23	children	child	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	24	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	25	about	about	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	26	individual	individual	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	27	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	28	after	after	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	29	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	30	may	may	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	31	prove	prove	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	32	critical	critical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	297	33	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	2	order	order	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	3	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	4	validate	validate	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	5	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	6	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	7	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	8	particularly	particularly	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	9	those	those	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	10	related	relate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	11	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	12	infected	infected	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	13	or	or	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	14	clinical	clinical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	15	status	status	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	16	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	17	biological	biological	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	18	assays	assay	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	20	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	21	inferred	infer	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	22	measures	measure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	23	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	24	required	require	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	298	25	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	1	Serological	serological	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	2	surveys	survey	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	3	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	4	example	example	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	5	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	6	being	be	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	7	rolled	roll	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	8	out	out	RP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	9	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	10	examine	examine	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	11	community	community	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	12	infection	infection	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	13	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	299	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	2	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	3	recent	recent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	4	study	study	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	5	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	6	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	7	Santa	Santa	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	8	Clara	Clara	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	9	region	region	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	11	California	California	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	12	antibodies	antibody	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	13	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	14	SARs	SARs	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	15	-	-	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	16	CoV-2	CoV-2	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	17	were	be	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	18	identified	identify	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	19	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	20	1.5	1.5	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	21	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	23	3,330	3,330	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	24	people	people	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	25	sampledwith	sampledwith	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	26	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	27	adjusted	adjust	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	28	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	29	prevalence	prevalence	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	30	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	31	2.4	2.4	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	32	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	33	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	34	4.26	4.26	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	35	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	36	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	37	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	300	38	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	2	Bendavid	Bendavid	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	3	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	4	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	5	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	7	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	9	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	10	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	11	similar	similar	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	12	rates	rate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	13	identified	identify	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	14	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	15	an	an	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	16	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	17	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	18	Dutch	dutch	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	19	blood	blood	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	20	samples	sample	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	21	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	22	line	line	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	23	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	24	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	25	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	301	26	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	1	Larger	large	JJR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	2	'	'	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	3	serosurveys	serosurvey	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	4	'	'	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	5	will	will	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	6	ultimately	ultimately	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	7	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	8	required	require	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	9	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	10	more	more	RBR
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	11	precisely	precisely	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	12	define	define	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	13	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	14	measures	measure	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	15	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	16	large	large	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	17	populations	population	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	18	being	be	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	19	enrolled	enrol	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	20	currently	currently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	21	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	22	Germany	Germany	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	23	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	24	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	25	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	26	US	US	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	27	National	National	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	28	Institute	Institute	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	29	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	30	Health	Health	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	302	31	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	1	In	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	3	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	4	reports	report	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	5	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	6	centres	centre	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	8	recent	recent	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	9	outbreaks	outbreak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	10	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	11	providing	provide	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	12	further	further	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	13	details	detail	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	14	that	that	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	15	can	can	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	16	inform	inform	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	17	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	18	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	19	priors	prior	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	303	20	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	1	For	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	2	example	example	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	3	two	two	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	4	hospitals	hospital	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	5	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	6	New	New	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	7	York	York	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	8	City	City	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	9	have	have	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	10	recently	recently	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	11	reported	report	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	12	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	13	mechanical	mechanical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	14	ventilation	ventilation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	15	requirement	requirement	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	16	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	17	33.1	33.1	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	18	%	%	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	19	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	20	patients	patient	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	21	admitted	admit	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	22	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	24	treatment	treatment	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	25	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	26	Covid-19	covid-19	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	27	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	28	Goyal	Goyal	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	29	et	et	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	30	al	al	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	31	.	.	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	32	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	33	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	304	35	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	2	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	4	these	these	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	5	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	6	other	other	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	7	kinds	kind	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	8	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	9	data	datum	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	10	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	11	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	12	reliability	reliability	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	14	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	15	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	16	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	17	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	18	could	could	MD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	19	be	be	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	20	evaluated	evaluate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	21	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	23	approach	approach	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	24	presented	present	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	25	here	here	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	26	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	27	irrespective	irrespective	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	28	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	29	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	30	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	31	used	use	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	32	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	305	33	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	5	ND	ND	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	6	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	7	International	international	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	306	8	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	307	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	307	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	307	3	made	make	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	307	4	available	available	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	307	5	under	under	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	307	6	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	2	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	3	author	author	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	4	/	/	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	6	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	7	who	who	WP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	11	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	12	license	license	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	13	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	14	display	display	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	15	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	17	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	308	19	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	2	which	which	WDT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	3	was	be	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	4	not	not	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	5	certified	certify	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	6	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	7	peer	peer	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	8	review	review	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	309	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	4	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	5	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	7	this	this	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	8	version	version	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	9	posted	post	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	10	April	April	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	11	29	29	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	12	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	14	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	310	15	.	.	.
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	311	1	https://doi.org/10.1101	https://doi.org/10.1101	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	311	2	/2020	/2020	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	311	3	 	 	_SP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	312	1	SPM	SPM	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	312	2	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	1	A	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	2	history	history	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	3	COVID-19	covid-19	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	4	Antibody	Antibody	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	5	Seroprevalence	Seroprevalence	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	6	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	7	Data	Data	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	8	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	9	Driven	Driven	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	10	Study	Study	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	11	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	12	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	13	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	14	Pandemic	Pandemic	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	15	via	via	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	16	Age	Age	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	17	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	18	Structured	Structured	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	19	Modelling	Modelling	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	20	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	21	Prediction	Prediction	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	23	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	24	Health	Health	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	25	System	System	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	26	Failure	Failure	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	27	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	28	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	29	amid	amid	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	30	Diverse	diverse	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	31	Intervention	Intervention	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	32	Strategies	strategy	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	33	Mitigating	mitigate	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	34	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	35	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	36	via	via	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	37	high	high	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	38	testing	testing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	39	capacity	capacity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	40	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	41	strong	strong	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	42	transmission	transmission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	43	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	44	intervention	intervention	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	45	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	46	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	47	United	United	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	313	48	States	States	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	1	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	2	variational	variational	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	3	Laplace	Laplace	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	4	approach	approach	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	5	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	6	approximate	approximate	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	7	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	8	inference	inference	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	9	VBA	vba	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	314	10	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	1	A	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	2	Probabilistic	Probabilistic	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	3	Treatment	Treatment	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	4	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	5	Nonlinear	Nonlinear	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	6	Models	Models	NNPS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	7	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	8	Neurobiological	Neurobiological	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	9	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	10	Behavioural	Behavioural	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	11	Data	Data	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	12	Variational	Variational	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	13	free	free	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	14	energy	energy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	15	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	16	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	17	Laplace	Laplace	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	18	approximation	approximation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	19	Dynamic	dynamic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	20	causal	causal	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	21	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	22	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	23	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	24	The	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	25	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	26	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	27	early	early	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	28	social	social	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	29	distancing	distancing	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	30	at	at	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	31	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	32	Outbreak	Outbreak	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	33	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	34	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	35	largest	large	JJS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	36	Metropolitan	Metropolitan	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	37	Area	Area	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	38	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	39	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	40	Evoked	evoke	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	41	brain	brain	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	42	responses	response	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	43	are	be	VBP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	44	generated	generate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	45	by	by	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	46	feedback	feedback	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	47	loops	loop	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	48	Improving	improve	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	49	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	50	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	51	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	52	influenza	influenza	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	53	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	54	related	relate	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	55	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	56	over	over	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	57	a	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	58	seasonal	seasonal	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	59	baseline	baseline	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	60	Clinical	Clinical	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	61	Characteristics	characteristic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	62	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	63	Covid-19	Covid-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	64	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	65	Suppression	Suppression	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	66	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	67	Mitigation	Mitigation	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	68	Strategies	Strategies	NNPS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	69	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	70	Control	Control	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	71	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	72	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	73	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	74	New	New	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	75	Zealand	Zealand	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	76	Chloroquine	Chloroquine	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	77	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	78	hydroxychloroquine	hydroxychloroquine	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	79	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	80	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	81	treatment	treatment	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	82	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	83	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	84	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	85	A	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	86	living	live	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	87	systematic	systematic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	88	review	review	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	89	protocol	protocol	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	90	Updating	update	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	91	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	92	accounts	account	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	315	93	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	1	global	global	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	2	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	3	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	5	1918	1918	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	6	-	-	SYM
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	7	1920	1920	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	8	"	"	``
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	9	Spanish	spanish	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	10	"	"	''
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	11	influenza	influenza	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	12	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	13	Approximate	Approximate	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	14	Bayesian	Bayesian	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	15	Inference	Inference	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	16	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	17	Conditionally	conditionally	RB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	18	Independent	Independent	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	19	Hierarchical	Hierarchical	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	316	20	Models	Models	NNPS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	317	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	317	2	Parametric	Parametric	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	317	3	Empirical	Empirical	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	317	4	Bayes	Bayes	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	317	5	Models	Models	NNPS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	317	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	1	A	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	2	contribution	contribution	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	3	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	4	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	5	mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	6	theory	theory	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	7	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	8	epidemics	epidemic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	9	Projecting	project	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	10	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	11	transmission	transmission	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	12	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	13	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	14	SARS	SARS	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	15	-	-	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	16	CoV-2	CoV-2	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	17	through	through	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	18	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	19	postpandemic	postpandemic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	20	period	period	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	21	Explaining	explain	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	22	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	23	Bomb	Bomb	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	24	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	25	Like	Like	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	26	Dynamics	Dynamics	NNPS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	27	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	28	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	29	with	with	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	30	Modeling	Modeling	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	31	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	32	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	33	Implications	implication	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	34	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	35	Policy	policy	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	36	Projecting	project	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	37	hospital	hospital	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	38	utilization	utilization	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	39	during	during	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	40	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	41	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	42	outbreaks	outbreak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	43	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	44	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	45	United	United	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	46	States	States	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	47	Estimating	Estimating	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	48	required	require	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	49	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	50	cycles	cycle	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	51	before	before	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	52	immunity	immunity	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	53	to	to	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	54	SARS	SARS	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	55	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	56	CoV-2	CoV-2	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	57	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	58	Model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	59	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	60	based	base	VBN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	61	analyses	analysis	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	62	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	63	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	64	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	65	sizes	size	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	66	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	67	S0	S0	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	68	,	,	,
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	69	in	in	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	70	seven	seven	CD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	71	European	european	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	72	countries	country	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	73	including	include	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	74	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	75	UK	UK	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	76	and	and	CC
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	77	Ireland	Ireland	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	78	Pick	Pick	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	79	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	80	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	81	coronavirus	coronavirus	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	82	papers	paper	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	83	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	84	How	how	WRB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	85	Hong	Hong	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	86	Kong	Kong	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	87	stemmed	stem	VBD
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	88	viral	viral	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	89	spread	spread	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	90	without	without	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	91	harsh	harsh	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	92	restrictions	restriction	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	93	Report	Report	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	94	from	from	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	95	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	96	American	American	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	97	Society	Society	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	98	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	318	99	Microbiology	Microbiology	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	319	1	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	319	2	International	International	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	319	3	Summit	Summit	NNP
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	1	A	a	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	2	mechanistic	mechanistic	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	3	population	population	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	4	balance	balance	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	5	model	model	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	6	to	to	TO
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	7	evaluate	evaluate	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	8	the	the	DT
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	9	impact	impact	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	10	of	of	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	11	interventions	intervention	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	12	on	on	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	13	infectious	infectious	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	14	disease	disease	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	320	15	outbreaks	outbreak	NNS
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	1	:	:	:
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	2	Case	case	VB
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	3	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	4	COVID19	covid19	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	5	Defining	define	VBG
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	6	high	high	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	7	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	8	value	value	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	9	information	information	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	10	for	for	IN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	11	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	12	decision	decision	NN
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	321	14	making	make	VBG