id sid tid token lemma pos cord-346495-irtdqbeb 1 1 key key NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 1 2 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 1 cord-346495-irtdqbeb cord-346495-irtdqbeb NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 2 authors author NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 3 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 4 Ackland Ackland NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 6 G. G. NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 7 J. J. NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 8 ; ; : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 9 Rice Rice NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 10 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 11 K. K. NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 12 ; ; : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 13 Wynne Wynne NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 15 B. B. NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 16 M. M. NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 17 ; ; : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 18 Martin Martin NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 20 V. V. NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 21 title title NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 22 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 23 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 24 long long JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 25 term term NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 26 predictions prediction NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 27 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 28 Imperial Imperial NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 29 College College NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 30 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 31 Report report NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 32 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 33 date date NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 34 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 35 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 36 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 37 06 06 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 38 - - SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 39 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 40 journal journal NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 41 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 42 nan nan NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 43 DOI DOI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 2 44 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 3 1 10.1101/2020.06.18.20135004 10.1101/2020.06.18.20135004 LS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 4 1 sha sha NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 4 2 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 4 3 e0358b8eac15b6483ca299c370f30f499fdccfd1 e0358b8eac15b6483ca299c370f30f499fdccfd1 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 4 4 doc_id doc_id CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 4 5 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 5 1 346495 346495 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 5 2 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 5 3 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 5 4 irtdqbeb irtdqbeb NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 2 present present VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 3 calculations calculation NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 4 using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 6 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 7 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 8 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 9 implements implement VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 11 Imperial Imperial NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 12 College College NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 13 individual individual NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 14 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 15 based base VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 16 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 17 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 19 COVID COVID NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 6 21 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 1 Using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 3 parameterization parameterization NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 4 assumed assume VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 5 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 6 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 7 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 8 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 10 reproduce reproduce VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 11 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 12 predictions prediction NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 13 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 14 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 15 inform inform VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 16 UK UK NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 17 government government NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 18 policy policy NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 20 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 21 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 7 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 2 find find VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 3 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 4 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 5 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 6 have have VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 7 given give VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 8 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 9 good good JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 10 forecast forecast NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 11 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 13 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 14 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 15 if if IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 16 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 17 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 18 initial initial JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 19 value value NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 20 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 21 R0 R0 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 22 had have VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 23 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 24 assumed assume VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 8 25 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 2 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 3 investigate investigate VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 4 further further RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 6 whole whole JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 7 trajectory trajectory NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 8 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 12 presenting present VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 13 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 14 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 15 previously previously RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 16 published publish VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 9 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 2 find find VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 3 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 4 while while IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 5 prompt prompt JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 6 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 7 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 8 highly highly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 9 effective effective JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 10 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 11 reducing reduce VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 12 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 13 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 14 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 16 none none NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 17 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 19 pro- pro- JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 20 posed pose VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 21 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 22 strategies strategy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 23 reduces reduce VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 24 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 25 predicted predict VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 26 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 27 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 28 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 29 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 30 below below IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 31 200,000 200,000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 10 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 1 Surprisingly surprisingly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 3 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 4 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 5 such such JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 6 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 7 school school NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 8 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 9 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 10 predicted predict VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 11 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 12 increase increase VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 14 projected project VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 15 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 16 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 17 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 18 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 11 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 2 UK UK NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 3 national national JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 4 response response NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 5 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 7 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 8 crisis crisis NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 9 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 10 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 11 widely widely RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 12 reported report VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 13 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 14 being be VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 15 primarily primarily RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 16 led lead VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 17 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 18 modelling model VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 19 based base VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 20 on on IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 21 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 22 work work NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 23 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 25 5 5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 27 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 28 although although IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 29 other other JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 30 models model NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 31 have have VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 32 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 33 considered consider VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 34 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 12 35 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 2 key key JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 3 paper paper NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 5 4 4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 8 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 10 will will MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 11 refer refer VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 12 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 13 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 14 " " `` cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 15 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 16 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 17 " " '' cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 18 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 19 investigated investigate VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 20 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 21 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 22 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 23 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 24 using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 25 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 26 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 27 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 28 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 29 best good JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 30 parameterisation parameterisation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 31 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 32 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 33 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 34 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 13 35 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 1 Contrary contrary JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 2 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 3 popular popular JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 4 perception perception NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 7 full full JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 8 lockdown lockdown NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 9 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 10 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 11 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 12 implemented implement VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 13 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 14 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 15 specifically specifically RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 16 modelled model VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 18 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 19 work work NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 14 20 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 1 As as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 4 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 5 progressed progress VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 8 parameterisation parameterisation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 9 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 10 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 11 continually continually RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 12 improved improve VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 13 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 14 new new JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 15 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 16 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 18 arrives arrive VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 15 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 2 main main JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 3 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 4 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 5 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 6 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 7 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 8 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 9 especially especially RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 10 surprising surprising JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 16 11 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 2 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 3 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 4 morbidity morbidity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 5 around around IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 6 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 7 % % NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 9 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 12 so so IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 13 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 15 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 16 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 17 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 18 population population NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 19 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 20 70 70 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 21 M M NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 22 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 23 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 24 cause cause VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 25 many many JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 26 hundreds hundred NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 27 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 28 thousands thousand NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 29 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 30 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 17 31 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 2 early early JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 3 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 4 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 5 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 6 may may MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 7 have have VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 8 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 9 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 10 case case NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 11 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 12 doubling double VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 13 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 15 around around IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 16 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 17 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 18 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 20 UK UK NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 22 12 12 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 24 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 25 meaning mean VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 26 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 27 within within IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 28 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 29 week week NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 30 COVID covid NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 31 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 32 could could MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 33 go go VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 34 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 35 accounting account VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 36 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 37 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 38 minority minority NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 39 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 40 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 41 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 42 spaces space NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 43 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 44 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 45 exceeding exceed VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 46 capacity capacity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 18 47 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 3 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 4 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 5 onset onset NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 6 delay delay NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 7 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 8 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 9 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 10 week week NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 12 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 13 limited limited JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 14 or or CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 15 delayed delay VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 16 testing testing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 17 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 18 reporting reporting NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 20 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 21 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 22 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 23 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 24 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 25 very very RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 26 little little JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 27 measurable measurable JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 28 warning warning NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 29 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 30 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 31 explosion explosion NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 32 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 33 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 34 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 19 35 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 2 original original JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 3 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 4 used use VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 5 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 6 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 7 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 9 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 10 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 11 released release VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 13 however however RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 15 Ferguson Ferguson NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 16 group group NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 17 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 18 led lead VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 19 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 20 effort effort NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 21 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 22 Microsoft Microsoft NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 23 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 24 github github NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 25 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 26 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 27 Royal Royal NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 28 Society Society NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 29 RAMP ramp NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 30 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 31 initiative initiative NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 32 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 33 recreate recreate VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 34 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 35 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 36 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 37 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 38 open open RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 39 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 40 sourced source VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 41 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 42 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 44 8) 8) NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 20 45 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 1 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 2 faithfully faithfully RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 3 replicated replicate VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 5 original original JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 6 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 8 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 9 recently recently RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 11 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 12 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 13 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 14 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 15 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 16 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 17 independently independently RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 18 replicated replicate VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 20 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 21 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 1 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 3 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 4 individual individual NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 5 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 6 based base VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 7 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 8 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 9 includes include VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 10 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 11 detailed detailed JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 12 geographic geographic JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 13 network network NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 15 considers consider VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 16 schools school NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 17 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 18 universities university NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 20 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 21 places place NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 22 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 23 work work NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 24 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 25 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 26 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 27 parameterised parameterise VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 28 using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 29 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 30 best well RBS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 31 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 32 expert expert JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 33 clinical clinical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 34 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 35 behavioural behavioural JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 36 evidence evidence NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 22 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 2 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 3 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 5 required require VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 6 complexity complexity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 7 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 8 consider consider VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 9 non non JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 10 - - JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 11 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 12 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 14 NPIs NPIs NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 17 specifically specifically RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 18 home home NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 19 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 20 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 21 suspect suspect JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 22 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 24 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 26 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 27 home home NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 28 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 29 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 30 family family NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 31 members member NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 33 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 35 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 36 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 37 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 38 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 40 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 42 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 43 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 44 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 45 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 46 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 47 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 48 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 49 70 70 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 50 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 51 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 23 53 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 2 further further RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 3 considered consider VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 4 " " `` cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 5 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 6 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 7 " " '' cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 9 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 12 specifically specifically RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 14 closure closure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 15 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 16 schools school NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 17 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 18 universities university NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 24 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 1 More More JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 2 details detail NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 3 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 4 these these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 5 NPIs npi NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 6 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 7 provided provide VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 8 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 9 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 10 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 11 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 12 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 13 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 15 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 17 reproduce reproduce VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 18 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 19 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 20 Figure Figure NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 21 5 5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 25 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 1 Report report NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 2 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 3 presented present VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 4 both both DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 5 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 6 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 7 suppression suppression NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 8 strategies strategy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 9 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 10 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 12 focus focus VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 13 here here RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 14 on on IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 16 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 17 strategies strategy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 26 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 1 One one CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 2 counter counter JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 3 - - JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 4 intuitive intuitive JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 5 result result NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 6 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 7 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 8 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 9 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 11 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 12 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 13 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 14 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 15 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 16 A1 A1 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 18 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 20 prediction prediction NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 21 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 22 once once RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 23 all all DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 24 other other JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 25 considered consider VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 26 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 27 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 28 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 29 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 30 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 31 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 32 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 33 closure closure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 34 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 35 schools school NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 36 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 37 universities university NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 38 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 39 increase increase VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 40 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 41 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 42 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 43 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 44 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 27 45 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 3 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 4 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 5 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 6 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 8 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 10 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 12 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 13 involving involve VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 14 case case NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 15 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 16 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 17 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 18 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 20 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 21 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 22 projected project VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 23 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 24 increase increase VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 25 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 26 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 27 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 28 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 29 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 28 30 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 1 Very very RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 2 recently recently RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 5 detailed detailed JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 6 inputs input NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 7 used use VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 8 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 9 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 10 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 11 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 12 released release VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 29 13 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 2 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 3 paper paper NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 4 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 6 reproduce reproduce VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 8 main main JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 9 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 10 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 11 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 12 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 13 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 14 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 15 explain explain VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 16 why why WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 17 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 18 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 20 framework framework NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 21 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 23 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 24 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 25 these these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 26 counter counter JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 27 - - JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 28 intuitive intuitive JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 29 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 30 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 31 obtained obtain VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 30 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 2 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 3 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 4 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 5 developed develop VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 6 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 7 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 8 influenza influenza NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 9 pandemic pandemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 10 model(5 model(5 VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 11 ; ; : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 12 6 6 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 13 ; ; : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 14 10 10 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 31 16 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 2 used use VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 3 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 4 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 5 recovered recover VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 6 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 7 github(8 github(8 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 9 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 10 tagged tagged NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 11 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 12 0.14.0 0.14.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 13 + + CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 14 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 15 patches patch NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 16 dated date VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 17 before before IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 18 03 03 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 19 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 20 06 06 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 21 - - SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 22 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 32 23 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 1 Input input NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 2 files file NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 3 relevant relevant JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 4 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 5 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 6 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 7 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 8 supplied supply VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 9 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 10 Ferguson Ferguson NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 11 et et NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 12 al al NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 33 13 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 34 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 34 2 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 34 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 34 4 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 2 chose choose VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 3 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 4 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 5 attempt attempt VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 6 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 7 re re VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 8 - - VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 9 parameterise parameterise VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 11 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 35 12 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 1 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 2 contains contain VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 3 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 4 huge huge JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 5 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 6 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 8 derived derive VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 9 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 10 expert expert JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 11 judgement judgement NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 13 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 14 so so RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 16 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 17 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 18 well well RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 19 suited suited JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 20 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 21 data data NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 22 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 23 driven drive VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 24 re re NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 25 - - NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 26 parameterisation parameterisation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 27 using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 28 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 29 inference inference NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 30 or or CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 31 related related JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 32 techniques technique NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 36 33 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 2 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 3 assumptions assumption NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 4 underlying underlie VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 6 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 7 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 8 identical identical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 9 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 10 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 11 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 12 Ferguson Ferguson NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 13 et et NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 14 al al NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 15 . . NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 17 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 18 purpose purpose NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 19 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 20 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 21 paper paper NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 22 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 23 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 24 investigate investigate VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 25 more more RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 26 fully fully RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 28 consequences consequence NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 29 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 30 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 31 assumption assumption NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 37 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 38 1 2 2 LS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 38 2 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 7 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 39 8 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 40 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 40 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 40 3 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 40 4 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 40 5 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 40 6 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 41 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 2 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 3 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 4 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 5 certified certify VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 6 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 7 peer peer NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 8 review review NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 42 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 2 result result NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 3 tables table NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 6 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 7 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 8 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 10 original original JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 11 report report NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 12 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 13 straightforwardly straightforwardly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 14 reproduced reproduce VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 15 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 16 averaging average VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 17 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 18 10 10 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 19 simulation simulation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 20 runs run VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 21 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 23 same same JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 24 random random JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 25 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 26 seeds seed NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 27 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 28 used use VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 29 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 30 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 31 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 43 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 2 simulations simulation NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 3 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 4 run run VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 5 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 6 800 800 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 7 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 8 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 9 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 10 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 11 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 12 being be VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 13 01 01 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 14 January January NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 15 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 44 16 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 2 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 3 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 4 lasts last VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 5 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 6 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 7 months month NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 9 91 91 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 10 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 13 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 14 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 15 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 16 extended extend VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 17 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 18 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 19 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 20 30 30 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 21 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 45 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 2 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 3 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 4 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 5 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 6 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 7 considered consider VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 8 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 9 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 46 10 = = NFP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 1 2.2 2.2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 2 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 3 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 4 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 5 = = SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 6 2.4 2.4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 47 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 1 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 3 initially initially RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 4 only only RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 5 considered consider VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 6 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 7 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 8 = = SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 9 2.4 2.4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 48 10 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 1 As as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 2 highlighted highlight VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 3 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 5 8) 8) NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 7 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 9 obtain obtain VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 10 here here RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 11 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 12 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 13 precisely precisely RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 14 identical identical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 15 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 16 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 18 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 19 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 20 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 21 since since IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 22 they -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 23 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 24 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 25 average average NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 26 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 27 10 10 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 28 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 29 realisations realisation NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 30 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 31 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 32 population population NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 33 dataset dataset NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 34 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 35 changed change VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 36 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 37 one one CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 38 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 39 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 40 open open JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 41 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 42 source source NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 43 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 44 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 45 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 46 algorithm algorithm NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 47 used use VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 48 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 49 generate generate VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 50 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 51 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 52 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 53 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 54 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 55 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 56 network network NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 57 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 58 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 59 modified modify VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 60 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 61 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 62 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 49 63 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 2 stochasticity stochasticity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 3 gives give VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 4 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 5 variance variance NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 6 around around IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 7 5 5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 8 % % NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 9 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 10 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 11 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 12 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 13 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 14 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 16 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 17 explains explain VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 19 discrepancies discrepancy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 20 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 21 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 22 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 50 23 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 1 More more RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 2 significant significant JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 3 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 5 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 6 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 8 timing timing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 9 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 11 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 12 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 14 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 16 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 17 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 18 around around IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 19 ±5 ±5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 20 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 51 21 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 2 compare compare VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 3 these these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 4 predictions prediction NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 5 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 7 death death NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 8 rates rate NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 9 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 11 actual actual JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 12 trajectory trajectory NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 13 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 15 disease(11 disease(11 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 52 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 2 note note VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 3 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 4 NHS NHS NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 5 England England NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 6 stopped stop VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 7 publishing publish VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 8 critical critical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 9 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 10 occupancy occupancy NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 11 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 12 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 13 2020(2 2020(2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 16 so so CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 18 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 19 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 20 possible possible JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 21 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 22 compare compare VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 23 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 24 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 25 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 26 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 27 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 28 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 29 reality reality NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 53 30 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 1 To to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 2 understand understand VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 3 why why WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 4 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 5 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 6 example example NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 8 closing close VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 9 schools school NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 10 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 11 universities university NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 12 increases increase VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 13 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 14 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 15 within within IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 17 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 18 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 20 consider consider VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 21 two two CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 22 possibilities possibility NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 54 23 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 1 Firstly firstly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 3 reduced reduce VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 4 contact contact NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 5 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 6 school school NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 7 leads lead NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 8 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 9 increased increase VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 10 contact contact NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 11 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 12 home home NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 55 13 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 2 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 3 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 4 transferred transfer VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 5 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 6 low low JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 7 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 8 risk risk NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 9 children child NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 10 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 11 high high JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 12 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 13 risk risk NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 14 adults adult NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 56 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 2 investigated investigate VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 3 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 4 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 5 examining examine VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 7 effect effect NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 8 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 9 changing change VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 11 " " `` cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 12 Relative relative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 13 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 14 contact contact NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 15 rate rate NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 16 after after IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 17 closure closure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 18 " " '' cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 19 parameter parameter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 57 20 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 2 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 3 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 5 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 6 clear clear JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 7 that that DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 8 variation variation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 9 due due IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 10 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 11 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 12 value value NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 13 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 14 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 15 parameter parameter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 16 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 17 insignificant insignificant JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 18 compared compare VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 19 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 21 overall overall JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 22 effect effect NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 23 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 24 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 25 school school NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 26 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 27 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 28 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 29 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 30 other other JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 31 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 58 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 59 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 59 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 59 3 reject reject VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 59 4 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 59 5 hypothesis hypothesis NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 59 6 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 1 Secondly secondly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 3 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 4 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 5 suppress suppress VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 7 first first JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 8 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 9 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 10 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 11 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 13 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 14 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 15 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 17 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 18 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 19 still still RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 20 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 21 large large JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 22 population population NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 23 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 24 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 25 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 26 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 27 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 28 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 29 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 30 substantial substantial JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 31 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 32 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 33 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 34 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 35 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 36 infected infect VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 60 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 1 This this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 2 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 3 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 4 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 5 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 6 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 7 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 8 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 9 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 10 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 11 can can MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 12 result result VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 13 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 14 more more JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 15 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 17 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 18 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 19 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 20 later later JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 21 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 61 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 2 Table table NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 3 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 5 show show VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 7 critical critical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 8 care care NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 10 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 12 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 13 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 15 while while IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 16 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 17 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 18 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 20 show show VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 21 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 22 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 23 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 24 both both DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 25 using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 26 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 27 same same JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 28 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 29 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 30 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 31 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 32 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 33 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 34 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 62 35 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 1 As as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 2 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 3 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 4 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 6 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 7 each each DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 8 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 9 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 11 consider consider VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 12 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 13 range range NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 15 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 16 triggers trigger NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 63 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 2 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 3 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 5 report report VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 7 peak peak JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 8 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 9 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 10 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 11 across across IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 13 full full JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 14 simulation simulation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 15 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 16 each each DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 17 trigger trigger NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 18 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 19 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 20 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 21 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 22 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 23 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 24 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 25 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 26 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 27 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 28 include include VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 29 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 30 peak peak JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 31 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 32 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 33 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 34 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 35 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 36 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 37 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 38 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 39 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 41 labelled label VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 43 Int int NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 64 46 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 2 latter latter JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 4 define define VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 5 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 7 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 8 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 9 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 10 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 11 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 12 distancing distance VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 14 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 16 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 18 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 20 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 21 implemented implement VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 65 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 2 Table table NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 3 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 5 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 6 report report VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 8 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 9 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 10 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 11 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 12 across across IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 14 entire entire JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 15 simulation simulation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 17 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 18 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 20 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 21 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 22 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 23 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 24 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 25 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 26 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 28 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 29 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 66 30 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 1 Despite despite IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 3 description description NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 4 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 5 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 6 closure closure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 7 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 8 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 9 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 10 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 11 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 12 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 13 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 15 university university NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 16 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 17 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 18 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 19 included include VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 20 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 67 21 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 2 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 4 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 5 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 6 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 7 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 8 parameter parameter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 9 files file NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 11 8) 8) NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 12 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 68 13 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 7 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 69 8 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 70 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 70 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 70 3 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 70 4 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 70 5 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 70 6 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 71 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 72 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 1 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 3 again again RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 4 defined define VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 5 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 7 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 8 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 9 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 10 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 11 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 12 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 13 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 14 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 16 if if IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 17 implemented implement VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 73 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 2 full full JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 3 simulation simulation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 4 numbers number NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 6 present present VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 7 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 8 Tables table NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 9 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 10 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 11 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 12 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 13 essentially essentially RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 15 same same JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 16 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 17 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 18 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 20 Table Table NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 21 A1 A1 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 22 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 23 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 24 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 74 25 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 1 As as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 2 discussed discuss VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 3 earlier early RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 4 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 6 small small JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 7 difference difference NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 8 between between IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 9 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 10 numbers number NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 11 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 12 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 13 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 14 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 15 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 16 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 17 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 18 probably probably RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 19 because because IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 20 these these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 21 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 22 averaged average VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 23 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 24 10 10 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 25 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 26 realisations realisation NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 27 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 28 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 29 population population NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 30 dataset dataset NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 31 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 32 slightly slightly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 33 different different JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 34 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 35 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 36 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 37 algorithm algorithm NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 38 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 39 generating generate VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 40 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 41 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 42 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 43 toplace toplace NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 44 network network NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 45 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 46 changed change VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 47 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 48 make make VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 49 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 50 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 75 51 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 1 Table table NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 2 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 3 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 4 illustrates illustrate VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 6 counter counter JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 7 - - JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 8 intuitive intuitive JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 9 result result NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 10 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 11 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 12 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 13 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 14 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 15 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 16 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 17 increases increase VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 19 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 20 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 21 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 22 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 23 across across IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 24 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 25 full full JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 26 simulation simulation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 27 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 28 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 29 does do VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 30 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 31 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 32 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 33 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 34 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 76 35 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 1 What what WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 2 's be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 3 clear clear JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 4 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 5 Tables table NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 6 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 7 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 8 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 9 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 10 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 11 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 12 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 13 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 14 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 77 15 peak peak VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 1 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 2 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 4 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 5 most most JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 6 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 8 occur occur VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 9 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 11 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 12 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 14 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 15 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 16 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 17 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 78 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 1 There there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 2 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 4 however however RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 6 other other JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 8 where where WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 10 peak peak JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 11 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 12 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 13 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 14 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 15 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 16 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 17 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 18 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 20 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 21 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 23 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 24 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 25 far far RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 26 smaller small JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 27 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 28 outside outside IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 29 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 30 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 79 31 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 2 reason reason NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 3 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 4 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 5 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 6 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 7 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 8 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 9 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 80 10 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 2 solid solid JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 3 lines line NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 4 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 6 same same JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 7 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 8 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 9 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 10 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 11 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 12 Figure Figure NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 13 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 15 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 16 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 81 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 2 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 3 show show VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 4 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 5 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 6 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 8 dashed dash VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 9 lines line NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 11 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 12 shown show VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 13 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 14 Figure Figure NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 15 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 16 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 17 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 18 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 20 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 21 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 22 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 23 included include VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 24 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 25 Tables table NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 26 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 27 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 28 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 29 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 30 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 31 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 32 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 33 Tables Tables NNPS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 34 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 35 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 36 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 82 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 3 simulations simulation NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 4 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 5 here here RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 8 main main JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 9 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 10 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 11 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 12 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 13 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 14 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 15 months month NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 16 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 17 end end VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 18 on on IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 19 about about IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 20 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 21 200 200 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 23 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 24 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 25 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 26 extended extend VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 27 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 28 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 29 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 30 30 30 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 31 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 83 33 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 1 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 2 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 3 shows show VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 4 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 5 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 6 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 8 lead lead VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 9 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 10 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 11 single single JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 12 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 13 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 14 occurs occur VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 15 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 17 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 18 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 19 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 21 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 22 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 23 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 24 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 84 25 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 1 Hence hence RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 3 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 4 peak peak JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 5 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 6 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 7 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 8 occurs occur VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 9 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 10 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 11 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 13 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 14 do do VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 15 most most JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 16 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 85 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 86 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 86 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 86 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 86 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 86 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 87 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 87 2 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 87 3 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 88 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 88 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 88 3 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 88 4 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 88 5 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 88 6 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 89 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 90 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 1 There there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 2 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 4 however however RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 6 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 7 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 8 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 9 suppress suppress VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 11 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 12 so so IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 13 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 14 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 15 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 16 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 17 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 18 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 19 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 20 once once IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 21 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 22 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 23 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 24 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 91 25 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 1 For for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 2 example example NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 4 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 5 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 6 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 7 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 8 case case VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 9 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 10 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 11 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 12 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 13 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 14 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 15 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 16 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 17 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 18 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 19 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 20 70 70 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 21 substantially substantially RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 22 suppresses suppress VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 23 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 24 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 25 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 26 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 27 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 28 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 29 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 30 compared compare VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 31 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 32 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 33 same same JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 34 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 35 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 36 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 37 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 92 38 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 1 However however RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 3 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 4 suppression suppression NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 5 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 6 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 7 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 8 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 9 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 10 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 11 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 12 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 13 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 14 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 15 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 16 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 17 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 18 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 19 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 21 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 22 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 23 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 24 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 25 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 26 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 27 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 28 exceed exceed VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 29 that that DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 30 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 31 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 32 same same JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 33 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 34 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 35 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 36 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 93 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 2 therefore therefore RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 3 conclude conclude VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 4 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 6 somewhat somewhat RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 7 counter counter JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 8 - - JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 9 intuitive intuitive JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 10 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 11 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 12 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 13 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 14 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 15 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 16 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 17 consequence consequence NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 18 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 20 addition addition NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 21 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 22 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 23 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 24 suppressing suppress VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 25 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 26 first first JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 27 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 28 so so IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 29 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 30 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 31 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 32 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 33 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 34 occurring occur VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 35 after after IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 36 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 37 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 38 have have VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 39 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 40 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 41 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 42 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 43 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 44 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 45 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 46 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 47 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 48 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 49 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 50 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 51 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 52 total total NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 53 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 54 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 55 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 56 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 57 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 58 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 59 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 60 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 94 61 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 1 A a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 2 similar similar JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 3 effect effect NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 4 can can MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 5 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 6 seen see VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 7 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 8 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 9 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 11 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 12 involving involve VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 13 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 14 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 15 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 17 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 95 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 1 For for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 2 example example NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 4 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 5 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 6 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 7 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 8 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 9 case case VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 10 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 11 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 12 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 13 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 14 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 15 strongly strongly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 16 suppresses suppress VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 17 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 18 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 19 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 21 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 22 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 23 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 24 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 25 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 26 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 27 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 28 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 29 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 30 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 31 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 32 actually actually RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 33 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 34 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 35 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 36 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 37 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 38 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 39 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 40 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 41 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 42 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 43 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 44 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 45 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 46 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 47 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 96 48 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 1 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 2 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 3 provides provide VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 4 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 5 explanation explanation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 6 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 7 how how WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 8 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 9 closure closure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 10 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 11 affect affect VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 13 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 14 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 16 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 17 why why WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 18 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 19 extra extra JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 20 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 21 may may MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 22 result result VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 23 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 24 more more JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 25 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 26 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 28 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 29 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 30 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 31 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 32 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 97 33 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 3 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 4 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 5 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 6 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 8 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 9 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 10 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 12 single single JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 13 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 15 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 16 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 17 seen see VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 98 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 2 data data NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 3 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 4 brokendown brokendown VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 5 into into IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 6 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 7 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 8 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 9 showing show VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 10 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 11 younger young JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 12 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 13 contribute contribute VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 14 most most RBS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 15 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 17 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 18 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 20 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 21 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 22 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 23 come come VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 24 primarily primarily RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 25 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 26 older old JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 27 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 99 28 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 1 Adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 3 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 4 closure closure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 5 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 7 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 8 keeping keep VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 9 all all DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 10 other other JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 11 things thing NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 12 constant constant JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 14 gives give VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 16 behaviour behaviour NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 17 shown show VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 18 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 20 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 21 row row NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 22 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 23 plots plot NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 100 24 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 2 initial initial JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 3 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 4 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 5 greatly greatly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 6 suppressed suppress VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 8 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 10 end end NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 11 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 12 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 13 seems seem VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 14 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 15 prompt prompt VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 16 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 17 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 18 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 19 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 20 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 21 amongst amongst IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 22 younger young JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 23 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 101 24 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 1 This this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 2 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 3 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 4 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 5 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 6 third third JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 8 more more RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 9 deadly deadly JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 10 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 11 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 12 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 13 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 14 affecting affect VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 16 elderly elderly JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 17 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 18 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 19 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 20 removed remove VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 102 21 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 2 net net JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 3 effect effect NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 4 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 5 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 6 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 7 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 8 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 9 postponement postponement NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 10 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 11 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 12 5 5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 103 13 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 7 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 8 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 9 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 10 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 11 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 12 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 13 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 104 14 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 105 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 106 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 1 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 2 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 3 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 4 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 6 younger young JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 7 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 8 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 9 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 10 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 11 increases increase VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 13 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 15 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 17 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 18 hence hence RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 19 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 20 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 21 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 23 older old JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 24 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 25 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 107 26 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 108 1 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 108 2 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 108 3 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 1 Comparison comparison NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 2 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 3 simulation simulation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 4 results result VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 5 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 6 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 8 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 109 10 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 1 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 2 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 3 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 4 PC PC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 5 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 6 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 7 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 8 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 9 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 110 10 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 1 Interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 2 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 3 triggered trigger VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 4 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 5 reaching reach VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 6 100 100 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 7 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 8 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 9 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 111 10 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 3 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 4 including include VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 5 Place Place NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 6 Closure Closure NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 8 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 10 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 11 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 12 value value NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 13 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 15 relative relative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 16 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 17 contact contact NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 18 parameter parameter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 19 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 20 varied varied JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 21 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 22 1.0 1.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 23 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 24 2.0 2.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 112 25 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 1 Regardless regardless RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 2 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 3 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 4 variation variation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 7 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 8 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 9 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 10 always always RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 11 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 12 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 13 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 14 increase increase NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 15 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 16 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 17 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 18 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 19 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 113 20 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 1 Although although IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 2 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 3 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 4 does do VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 5 discuss discuss VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 7 possibility possibility NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 8 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 9 relaxing relax VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 11 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 12 could could MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 13 lead lead VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 14 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 15 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 16 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 17 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 18 later later RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 21 year year NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 22 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 24 wanted want VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 25 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 26 briefly briefly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 27 explore explore VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 28 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 29 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 30 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 31 bit bit NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 32 more more JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 33 detail detail NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 114 34 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 1 Given give VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 2 that that DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 3 little little JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 4 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 5 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 6 intialising intialise VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 8 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 9 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 10 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 11 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 12 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 13 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 14 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 15 released release VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 18 use use VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 19 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 20 updated update VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 21 set set NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 22 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 23 parameter parameter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 24 files file NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 25 included include VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 26 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 28 github github NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 29 repository repository NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 31 8) 8) NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 115 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 2 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 4 consider consider VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 5 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 6 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 7 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 9 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 12 case case NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 13 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 15 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 17 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 18 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 19 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 21 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 23 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 24 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 25 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 26 distancing distance VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 28 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 30 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 31 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 32 implemented implement VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 33 using use VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 34 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 35 PC PC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 36 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 37 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 38 SD sd NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 39 parameter parameter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 40 file file NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 116 41 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 1 These these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 2 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 3 start start VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 4 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 5 late late JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 6 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 8 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 9 83 83 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 11 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 12 last last JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 13 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 14 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 15 months month NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 17 91 91 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 18 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 117 20 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 1 These these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 2 simulations simulation NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 3 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 4 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 5 initialised initialise VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 6 so so IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 7 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 8 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 9 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 10 about about RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 11 10000 10000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 12 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 13 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 14 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 15 100 100 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 16 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 17 all all DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 18 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 20 presumed presume VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 21 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 22 have have VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 23 mostly mostly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 24 been be VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 25 infected infect VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 26 before before IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 28 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 29 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 30 implemented implement VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 31 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 118 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 119 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 119 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 119 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 119 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 119 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 120 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 120 2 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 120 3 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 121 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 121 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 121 3 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 121 4 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 121 5 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 121 6 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 122 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 123 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 124 1 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 124 2 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 124 3 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 124 4 report report NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 124 5 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 124 6 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 2 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 3 include include VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 4 three three CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 5 additional additional JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 6 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 8 dashed dash VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 9 lines line NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 11 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 12 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 13 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 14 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 15 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 16 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 17 report report NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 18 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 20 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 21 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 22 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 23 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 24 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 25 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 26 Tables table NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 27 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 28 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 29 Tables table NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 30 1 1 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 31 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 32 2 2 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 33 here here RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 125 34 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 1 These these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 2 illustrate illustrate VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 3 why why WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 4 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 5 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 6 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 8 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 10 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 12 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 13 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 14 case case NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 15 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 17 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 20 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 21 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 23 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 25 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 26 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 27 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 28 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 29 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 30 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 31 70 70 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 33 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 35 can can MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 36 lead lead VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 37 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 38 more more JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 39 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 40 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 41 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 42 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 43 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 44 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 45 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 46 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 126 47 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 1 Doing do VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 2 so so RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 3 suppresses suppress VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 5 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 6 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 8 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 9 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 10 present present JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 12 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 13 leads lead VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 14 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 15 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 16 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 17 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 18 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 19 they -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 20 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 21 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 22 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 23 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 24 happens happen VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 25 on on RP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 26 around around IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 27 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 28 200 200 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 127 29 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 2 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 3 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 4 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 5 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 6 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 8 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 9 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 10 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 11 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 12 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 13 260,000 260,000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 15 while while IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 16 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 17 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 18 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 128 19 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 129 1 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 130 1 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 130 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 130 3 350,000 350,000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 130 4 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 1 So so RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 3 latter latter NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 4 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 5 more more JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 6 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 7 even even RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 8 though though IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 10 peak peak JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 11 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 12 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 13 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 14 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 15 lower low JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 131 16 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 1 A a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 2 similar similar JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 3 effect effect NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 4 can can MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 5 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 6 seen see VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 7 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 8 comparing compare VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 9 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 10 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 11 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 12 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 13 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 15 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 17 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 18 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 19 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 20 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 21 SD sd NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 132 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 1 For for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 2 example example NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 5 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 6 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 7 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 8 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 10 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 11 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 12 SD SD NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 13 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 14 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 15 actually actually RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 16 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 17 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 19 first first JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 20 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 21 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 22 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 23 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 24 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 25 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 26 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 133 27 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 2 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 3 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 4 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 5 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 6 Figure Figure NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 7 4 4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 134 8 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 2 top top JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 3 panel panel NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 4 shows show VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 5 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 6 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 8 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 9 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 10 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 12 11 11 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 15 while while IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 17 bottom bottom JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 18 panel panel NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 19 shows show VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 20 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 21 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 22 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 23 per per IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 24 100000 100000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 25 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 135 26 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 2 consider consider VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 3 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 4 range range NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 5 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 6 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 7 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 8 values value NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 9 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 10 find find VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 11 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 12 values value NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 13 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 14 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 15 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 16 considered consider VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 18 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 19 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 20 best good JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 21 reproduce reproduce VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 23 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 24 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 25 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 26 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 27 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 28 = = SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 29 3.5 3.5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 30 providing provide VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 31 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 32 best good JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 33 fit fit NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 136 34 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 1 This this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 3 consistent consistent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 4 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 6 analysis analysis NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 7 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 8 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 10 7 7 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 13 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 14 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 15 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 16 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 17 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 18 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 19 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 20 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 21 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 22 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 23 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 24 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 25 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 26 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 27 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 28 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 29 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 30 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 31 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 32 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 33 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 34 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 35 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 36 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 37 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 38 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 39 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 40 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 41 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 42 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 43 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 44 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 137 45 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 138 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 1 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 2 3 3 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 3 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 4 Simulated simulated JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 5 values value NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 6 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 7 daily daily JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 8 virus virus NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 9 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 11 left left NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 13 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 14 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 16 right right RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 18 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 19 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 139 20 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 140 1 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 140 2 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 1 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 3 top top NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 5 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 6 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 7 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 141 8 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 142 1 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 142 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 142 3 bottom bottom NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 142 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 142 5 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 1 Interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 2 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 3 triggered trigger VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 4 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 5 reaching reach VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 6 100 100 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 7 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 8 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 9 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 143 10 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 1 Results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 2 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 3 broken break VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 4 down down RP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 5 into into IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 6 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 7 categories category NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 8 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 9 indicated indicate VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 10 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 11 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 12 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 13 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 14 affecting affect VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 16 three three CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 17 oldest old JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 18 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 144 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 3 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 4 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 5 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 6 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 8 see see VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 9 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 10 single single JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 11 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 12 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 13 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 15 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 16 greatest great JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 17 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 18 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 20 younger young JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 21 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 22 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 23 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 24 most most JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 25 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 26 occurring occur VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 27 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 28 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 29 older old JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 145 30 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 3 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 4 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 5 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 6 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 7 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 9 see see VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 10 three three CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 11 peaks peak NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 12 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 14 plot plot NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 15 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 16 daily daily JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 17 cases case NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 18 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 19 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 21 first first JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 22 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 23 occurring occur VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 24 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 25 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 26 similar similar JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 27 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 28 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 29 CI CI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 146 30 HQ HQ NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 147 1 SDOL70 SDOL70 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 1 above above RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 3 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 4 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 5 reduced reduce VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 6 severity severity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 148 7 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 2 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 3 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 4 seems seem VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 5 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 6 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 7 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 8 response response NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 9 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 11 ending ending NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 12 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 13 Place Place NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 14 Closure Closure NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 16 PC pc NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 18 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 19 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 20 most most JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 21 affects affect VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 23 younger young JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 24 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 25 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 26 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 27 therefore therefore RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 28 having have VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 29 little little JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 30 impact impact NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 31 on on IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 32 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 33 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 34 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 149 35 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 2 third third JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 3 peak peak NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 4 affects affect VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 6 older old JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 7 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 8 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 9 leading lead VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 10 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 12 significant significant JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 13 increase increase NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 14 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 16 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 17 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 150 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 1 After after IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 3 trigger trigger NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 4 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 5 all all PDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 7 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 8 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 9 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 10 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 11 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 12 91 91 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 13 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 15 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 16 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 17 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 18 runs run NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 19 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 20 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 21 194 194 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 22 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 23 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 24 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 25 enhanced enhance VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 26 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 27 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 28 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 29 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 30 70s 70 NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 31 runs run VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 32 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 33 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 34 extra extra JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 35 30 30 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 36 days day NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 151 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 1 but but CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 3 acknowledge acknowledge VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 4 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 5 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 6 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 7 could could MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 8 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 9 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 10 fitted fit VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 11 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 12 changes change NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 13 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 15 other other JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 16 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 152 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 2 both both DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 3 panels panel NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 5 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 6 show show VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 8 " " `` cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 9 Do do VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 10 nothing nothing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 11 " " '' cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 12 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 13 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 14 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 15 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 16 = = SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 17 3.0 3.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 153 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 2 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 3 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 4 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 5 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 8 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 9 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 10 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 11 4 4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 12 show show VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 13 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 15 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 16 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 17 correctly correctly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 18 predicted predict VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 19 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 20 limit limit VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 21 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 22 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 23 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 24 less less JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 25 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 26 10 10 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 27 per per IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 28 100000 100000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 154 29 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 1 However however RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 3 if if IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 4 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 5 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 6 fully fully RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 7 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 8 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 9 there there EX cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 10 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 12 risk risk NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 13 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 14 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 15 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 16 will will MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 17 start start VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 18 increasing increase VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 19 again again RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 20 sometime sometime RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 21 between between IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 22 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 23 200 200 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 24 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 25 day day NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 26 250 250 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 28 i.e. i.e. FW cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 29 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 30 between between IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 31 8 8 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 155 32 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 7 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 8 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 9 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 10 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 11 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 12 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 13 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 156 14 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 157 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 158 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 1 late late JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 2 July July NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 3 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 4 late late JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 5 August August NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 159 7 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 1 If if IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 2 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 3 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 4 were be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 5 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 6 remain remain VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 7 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 8 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 9 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 10 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 11 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 12 might may MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 13 delay delay VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 15 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 16 weaken weaken VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 17 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 18 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 19 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 20 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 160 21 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 1 As as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 2 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 3 here here RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 4 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 5 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 6 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 7 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 8 analysis analysis NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 9 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 11 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 12 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 13 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 14 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 15 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 18 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 19 seem seem VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 20 important important JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 21 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 22 understand understand VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 23 how how WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 24 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 25 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 26 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 27 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 28 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 29 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 30 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 31 relaxation relaxation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 32 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 33 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 34 imposed impose VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 35 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 36 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 37 may may MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 38 influence influence VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 39 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 40 potentially potentially RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 41 more more RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 42 deadly deadly JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 43 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 44 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 45 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 46 could could MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 47 occur occur VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 48 later later RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 49 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 50 year year NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 161 51 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 1 In in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 2 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 3 paper paper NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 5 used use VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 7 recently recently RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 8 released release VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 9 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 10 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 12 8) 8) NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 14 reproduce reproduce VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 16 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 17 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 18 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 20 mid mid NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 21 - - NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 22 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 23 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 24 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 25 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 27 4 4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 162 29 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 2 motivation motivation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 3 behind behind IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 4 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 5 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 6 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 7 some some DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 8 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 10 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 11 presented present VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 12 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 13 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 14 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 15 suggested suggest VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 16 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 17 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 18 addition addition NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 19 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 20 extra extra JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 21 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 22 may may MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 23 actually actually RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 24 increase increase VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 25 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 26 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 27 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 28 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 29 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 163 30 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 2 find find VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 3 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 4 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 5 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 6 code code NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 7 reliably reliably RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 8 reproduces reproduce VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 10 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 11 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 12 Report-9 Report-9 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 13 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 14 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 15 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 17 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 18 underlying underlie VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 19 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 20 can can MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 21 accurately accurately RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 22 track track VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 23 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 24 UK UK NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 25 deathrate deathrate NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 26 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 164 27 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 1 To to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 2 do do VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 3 so so RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 4 does do VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 5 require require VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 6 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 7 adjustment adjustment NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 8 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 10 parameters parameter NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 11 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 12 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 13 slightly slightly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 14 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 15 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 16 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 17 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 18 considered consider VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 20 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 21 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 22 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 23 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 24 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 25 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 26 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 27 earlier early JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 28 start start NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 29 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 30 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 31 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 32 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 33 suggested suggest VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 34 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 35 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 36 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 165 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 2 emphasize emphasize VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 3 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 4 though though RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 5 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 6 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 8 unavailability unavailability NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 9 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 10 these these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 12 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 13 early early JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 14 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 15 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 16 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 17 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 18 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 19 failure failure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 20 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 21 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 22 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 166 23 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 2 confirm confirm VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 3 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 4 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 5 school school NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 6 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 7 university university NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 8 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 9 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 10 case case VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 11 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 13 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 14 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 16 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 17 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 18 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 19 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 20 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 21 over over IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 22 70 70 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 23 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 24 lead lead VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 25 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 26 more more JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 27 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 28 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 29 compared compare VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 30 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 31 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 32 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 33 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 34 without without IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 35 school school NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 36 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 37 university university NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 38 closures closure NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 167 39 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 3 adding add VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 4 general general JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 5 social social JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 6 distancing distancing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 7 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 8 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 9 case case NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 10 isolation isolation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 11 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 12 household household NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 13 quarantine quarantine NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 14 scenario scenario NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 15 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 16 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 17 projected project VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 18 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 19 increase increase VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 20 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 21 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 22 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 23 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 24 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 168 25 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 2 qualitative qualitative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 3 explanation explanation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 6 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 7 that that DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 8 within within IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 9 all all DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 10 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 11 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 12 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 14 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 15 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 18 ends end VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 19 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 20 herd herd NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 21 immunity immunity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 22 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 23 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 24 large large JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 25 fraction fraction NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 26 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 28 population population NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 29 infected infect VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 169 30 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 1 Strategies strategy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 2 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 3 minimise minimise VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 4 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 5 involve involve VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 6 having have VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 7 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 8 infected infected JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 9 fraction fraction NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 10 primarily primarily RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 11 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 13 low low JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 14 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 15 risk risk NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 16 younger young JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 17 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 18 groups group NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 170 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 1 These these DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 2 strategies strategy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 3 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 4 different different JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 5 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 6 those those DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 7 aimed aim VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 8 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 9 reducing reduce VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 11 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 12 burden burden NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 171 13 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 1 A a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 2 key key JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 3 thing thing NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 4 seems seem VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 5 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 6 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 7 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 8 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 9 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 10 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 11 very very RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 12 effective effective JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 13 when when WRB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 14 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 15 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 16 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 18 place place NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 19 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 20 can can MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 21 then then RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 22 lead lead VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 23 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 24 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 25 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 26 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 27 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 28 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 29 most most JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 30 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 31 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 32 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 33 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 34 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 35 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 36 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 37 occur occur VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 172 38 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 2 comparison comparison NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 3 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 4 updated update VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 5 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 6 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 7 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 8 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 9 published publish VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 10 death death NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 11 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 12 suggests suggest VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 13 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 14 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 15 similar similar JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 16 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 17 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 18 could could MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 19 occur occur VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 20 later later RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 21 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 22 year year NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 23 if if IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 24 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 25 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 26 fully fully RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 27 lifted lift VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 173 28 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 1 Finally finally RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 4 reemphasize reemphasize VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 5 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 7 results result NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 8 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 9 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 10 work work NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 11 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 12 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 13 intended intend VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 14 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 15 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 16 detailed detailed JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 17 predictions prediction NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 18 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 19 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 20 second second JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 21 wave wave NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 174 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 1 Rather rather RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 4 are be VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 5 reexamining reexamine VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 7 evidence evidence NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 8 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 9 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 10 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 11 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 12 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 13 start start NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 175 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 1 More more RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 2 accurate accurate JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 3 information information NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 4 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 5 now now RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 6 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 7 about about IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 8 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 9 compliance compliance NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 10 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 11 lockdown lockdown NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 12 rules rule NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 13 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 14 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 15 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 16 dependent dependent JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 17 mortality mortality NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 176 18 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 2 difficulty difficulty NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 3 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 4 shielding shield VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 5 care care NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 6 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 7 home home NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 8 residents resident NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 9 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 10 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 11 particularly particularly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 12 important important JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 13 piece piece NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 14 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 15 health health NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 16 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 17 that that WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 18 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 19 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 20 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 21 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 22 modellers modeller NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 23 at at IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 24 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 25 outset outset NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 177 26 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 2 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 3 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 4 almost almost RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 5 all all DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 6 mitigation mitigation NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 8 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 9 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 10 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 11 eventually eventually RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 12 finish finish VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 13 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 14 widespread widespread JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 15 immunity immunity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 16 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 17 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 19 final final JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 20 death death NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 21 toll toll NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 22 depends depend VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 23 primarily primarily RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 24 on on IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 25 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 26 age age NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 27 distribution distribution NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 28 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 29 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 30 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 31 total total JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 32 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 33 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 34 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 35 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 36 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 178 37 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 179 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 179 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 179 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 179 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 179 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 180 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 180 2 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 180 3 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 181 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 181 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 181 3 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 181 4 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 181 5 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 181 6 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 182 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 2 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 3 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 4 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 5 certified certify VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 6 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 7 peer peer NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 8 review review NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 183 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 184 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 1 Figure figure NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 2 4 4 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 3 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 4 Refit refit NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 5 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 6 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 7 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 8 March March NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 9 parameterization parameterization NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 10 based base VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 11 on on IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 12 death death NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 13 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 14 through through IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 15 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 16 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 185 17 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 2 top top JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 3 panel panel NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 4 shows show VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 5 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 6 deaths death NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 7 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 8 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 9 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 10 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 12 11 11 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 14 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 15 while while IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 16 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 17 bottom bottom JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 18 panel panel NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 19 shows show VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 20 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 21 bed bed NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 22 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 23 per per IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 24 100000 100000 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 25 people people NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 186 26 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 2 considered consider VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 3 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 4 range range NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 5 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 6 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 7 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 8 values value NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 9 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 10 find find VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 11 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 12 values value NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 13 higher high JJR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 14 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 15 that that DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 16 considered consider VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 18 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 19 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 20 best good JJS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 21 reproduce reproduce VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 22 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 23 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 187 24 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 1 A a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 2 good good JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 3 fit fit NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 4 also also RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 5 requires require VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 6 us -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 7 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 8 assume assume VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 9 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 10 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 12 started start VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 13 considerably considerably RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 14 earlier early RBR cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 15 than than IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 16 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 17 previously previously RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 18 suggested suggest VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 19 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 20 Report Report NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 21 9 9 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 188 22 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 2 see see VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 3 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 4 CovidSim CovidSim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 6 a a LS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 8 provides provide VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 9 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 10 good good JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 11 fit fit NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 12 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 14 data datum NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 15 with with IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 16 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 17 value value NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 18 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 19 R r NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 20 0 0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 189 21 = = NFP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 1 3.5 3.5 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 2 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 4 b b LS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 6 correctly correctly RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 7 predicts predict VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 8 that that IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 9 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 10 ICU ICU NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 11 capacity capacity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 12 would would MD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 13 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 14 be be VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 15 exceeded exceed VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 16 during during IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 17 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 18 intervention intervention NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 19 period period NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 20 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 190 21 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 191 1 CC CC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 191 2 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 191 3 BY BY NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 191 4 - - HYPH cord-346495-irtdqbeb 191 5 NC NC NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 192 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 192 2 International international JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 192 3 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 193 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 193 2 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 193 3 made make VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 193 4 available available JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 193 5 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 193 6 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 1 is be VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 2 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 3 author author NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 4 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 5 funder funder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 6 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 7 who who WP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 8 has have VBZ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 9 granted grant VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 11 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 12 license license NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 13 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 14 display display VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 15 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 16 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 17 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 194 19 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 2 which which WDT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 3 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 4 not not RB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 5 certified certify VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 6 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 7 peer peer NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 8 review review NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 195 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 1 The the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 2 copyright copyright NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 3 holder holder NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 4 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 5 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 6 preprint preprint NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 7 this this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 8 version version NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 9 posted post VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 10 June June NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 11 22 22 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 12 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 13 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 14 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 196 15 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 197 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.18.20135004 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.18.20135004 PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 197 2 doi doi NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 197 3 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 198 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 1 preprint preprint NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 2 Codecheck Codecheck NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 3 certificate certificate NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 4 2020 2020 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 5 - - SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 6 010 010 CD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 7 Impact Impact NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 8 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 9 non non JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 10 - - JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 11 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 12 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 14 npis npis NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 16 to to TO cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 17 reduce reduce VB cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 18 covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 19 mortality mortality NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 20 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 21 healthcare healthcare NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 22 demand demand NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 23 Strategies strategy NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 24 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 25 containing contain VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 26 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 27 emerging emerge VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 28 influenza influenza NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 29 pandemic pandemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 30 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 31 Southeast Southeast NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 32 Asia Asia NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 33 Strategies Strategies NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 34 for for IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 35 mitigating mitigate VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 36 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 37 influenza influenza NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 38 pandemic pandemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 39 Estimating estimate VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 40 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 41 number number NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 42 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 43 infections infection NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 44 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 45 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 46 impact impact NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 47 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 48 non non JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 49 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 50 covidsim covidsim NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 51 model model NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 199 52 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 1 github github NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 2 Estimating estimate VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 3 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 4 global global JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 5 infection infection NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 6 fatality fatality NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 7 rate rate NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 8 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 9 covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 200 10 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 2 Modeling model VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 3 targeted target VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 4 layered layered JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 5 containment containment NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 6 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 7 an an DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 8 influenza influenza NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 9 pandemic pandemic NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 10 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 11 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 12 United United NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 13 States States NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 14 Challenges Challenges NNPS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 15 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 16 control control NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 17 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 18 covid-19 covid-19 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 19 : : : cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 20 short short JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 21 doubling double VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 22 time time NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 23 and and CC cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 24 long long JJ cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 25 delay delay NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 26 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 27 effect effect NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 28 of of IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 29 interventions intervention NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 201 30 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 3 acknowledge acknowledge VBP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 4 support support NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 5 from from IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 6 UKRI UKRI NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 202 7 grant grant NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 1 ST ST NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 2 / / SYM cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 3 V00221X/1 V00221X/1 NNS cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 4 under under IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 6 initiative initiative NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 203 7 . . . cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 1 This this DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 2 work work NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 3 was be VBD cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 4 undertaken undertake VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 5 [ [ -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 6 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 7 part part NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 9 as as IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 10 a a DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 11 contribution contribution NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 12 to to IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 13 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 14 Rapid Rapid NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 15 Assistance Assistance NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 16 in in IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 17 Modelling model VBG cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 18 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 19 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 21 RAMP RAMP NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 23 initiative initiative NN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 24 , , , cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 25 coordinated coordinate VBN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 26 by by IN cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 27 the the DT cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 28 Royal Royal NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 29 Society Society NNP cord-346495-irtdqbeb 204 30 . . .