id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-310986-20x21k63	Cilloni, Lucia	The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis	2020-10-24		.txt	text/plain	6222	277	47	METHODS: We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06–1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333–394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100–44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8–17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826–6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815–1,980) in Ukraine. Fig. 4 shows how the size of this pool grows over time; the right-hand panel illustrates the potential impact of a two-month campaign to reduce the prevalence of untreated TB in India through expanded case finding to reach an monthly notification target of 17 per 100,000 population per month, immediately upon easing of lockdown restrictions (i.e., implemented alongside the restoration of TB services).	./cache/cord-310986-20x21k63.txt	./txt/cord-310986-20x21k63.txt