id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-103291-nqn1qzcu	Chapman, Lloyd A. C.	Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis	2020-02-25		.txt	text/plain	5931	323	53	ú CI = credible interval, calculated as the 95% highest posterior density interval † risk of subsequent VL/asymptomatic infection if susceptible ‡ based on assumed infectiousness § in the absence of background transmission and relative to living directly outside the case household. Based on the relative infectiousness of VL and the di erent 151 types of PKDL from the xenodiagnostic data, in the absence 152 of any other sources of transmission, the estimated probability 153 of being infected and developing VL if living in the same 154 household as a single symptomatic individual for 1 month 155 following their onset was 0.018 (95% CI: 0.013, 0.024) for VL 156 and ranged from 0.009 to 0.023 (95% CIs: (0.007,0.013)-(0.018, 157 0.031)) for macular/papular PKDL to nodular PKDL. We estimate the historical asymptomatic infection rate, ⁄0, by fitting the model to age-prevalence data on leishmanin skin 186 test (LST) positivity amongst non-symptomatic individuals from a cross-sectional survey of three of the study paras conducted 187 in 2002 (28) (see Figure S4 ).	./cache/cord-103291-nqn1qzcu.txt	./txt/cord-103291-nqn1qzcu.txt