id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-342211-y7zxipiz	Dagpunar, J. S.	Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation	2020-05-15		.txt	text/plain	3183	234	66	In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500 day period. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R_0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lock down (R_0=0.60) of 23 March. Starting with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R_0 of 0.60 on day 72, the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave, but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week earlier. Figure 1 shows the death rate, required ward and intensive care beds, numbers of susceptible, exposed, and infectious, and cumulative deaths over time.	./cache/cord-342211-y7zxipiz.txt	./txt/cord-342211-y7zxipiz.txt