id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-256843-05m50voc	Rovetta, Alessandro	Modelling the epidemiological trend and behavior of COVID-19 in Italy	2020-03-23		.txt	text/plain	2496	183	61	After the reconstruction of the real data on COVID-19 in Italy in the period March 2020, 1-14, through the above methods, the best estimates obtained for the Italian epidemic parameters are 1/σ = (3±1) days, 1/γ = (15±3) days, R0 = 3.51 ± 5%, I 0 = 3350 ± 20%. Thus, thanks to the results obtained from the application of the S.E.I.R. model we can foresee three possible scenarios: If, in Italy, the real next-days trend of the total infected number will be lower than that shown in figure 1, we can assume the following events set out in order of probability: the containment measures adopted 10 days ago are taking effect; Sars-Cov-2 has undergone a significant anti-evolutionary mutation. We assume the following events set out in order of probability: the containment measures adopted 10 days ago are not taking effect and Sars-Cov-2 has undergone a significant evolutionary mutation; the S.E.I.R model is no-more representative of the COVID-19 Italian case and we should utilize the S.E.I.R.S. model.	./cache/cord-256843-05m50voc.txt	./txt/cord-256843-05m50voc.txt