id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-271627-mapfi8f5	Chintalapudi, Nalini	COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach	2020-04-13		.txt	text/plain	2839	184	59	title: COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach METHODS: COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Therefore, we developed a data driven model to forecast COVID-19 outbreak daily registered cases and recovered cases, also estimated the chance of low infected patient cases for next 60 days of Italy quarantine. Based on the ARIMA model accuracy evolution of COVID-19 Italian epidemic data on mentioned time period, we considered mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) parameter.	./cache/cord-271627-mapfi8f5.txt	./txt/cord-271627-mapfi8f5.txt