id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-306060-wtdzad90	Tuite, Ashleigh	Estimation of COVID-19 outbreak size in Italy based on international case exportations	2020-03-06		.txt	text/plain	1084	60	54	During the interval between February 25-29, 2020, we identified 46 cases of COVID-19 reported in 21 countries in Europe, Africa, North America, and South America which were either in individuals with recent travel from Italy, or who had presumed infection by a traveler from Italy 2. In summary, we suggest that the numerous COVID-19 case exportations from Italy in recent days suggest an epidemic that is larger than official case counts suggest, and which is approximately on a par with that currently occurring in South Korea, which reports 3526 cases (and fewer deaths) as of February 29, 2020. To estimate the time at risk of COVID-19 exposure for travelers departing Italy, we obtained data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) for the proportion of international travelers that are non-residents of Italy (63%) 4 and the average length of stay of tourists to Italy (3.4 days) 5 , and assumed the Italian epidemic began one month prior to February 29, 2020 6 .	./cache/cord-306060-wtdzad90.txt	./txt/cord-306060-wtdzad90.txt