id sid tid token lemma pos cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 1 key key NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 2 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 3 cord-336714-brurrmi4 cord-336714-brurrmi4 NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 4 authors author NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 5 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 6 De De NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 7 Brouwer Brouwer NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 9 Edward Edward NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 10 ; ; : cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 11 Raimondi Raimondi NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 12 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 13 Daniele Daniele NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 14 ; ; : cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 15 Moreau Moreau NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 17 Yves Yves NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 18 title title NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 19 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 20 Modeling model VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 22 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 23 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 24 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 26 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 27 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 28 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 29 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 30 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 31 adopted adopt VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 32 across across IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 33 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 34 date date NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 35 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 36 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 37 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 38 04 04 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 39 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 40 04 04 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 41 journal journal NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 1 42 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 2 1 nan nan NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 2 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 2 3 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 1 10.1101/2020.04.02.20046375 10.1101/2020.04.02.20046375 CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 2 sha sha NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 3 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 4 68731f77a20bb8c3b123817ac749583ce95120a5 68731f77a20bb8c3b123817ac749583ce95120a5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 5 doc_id doc_id CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 6 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 7 336714 336714 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 8 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 9 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 3 10 brurrmi4 brurrmi4 NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 1 On on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 2 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 3 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 5 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 6 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 8 World World NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 9 Health Health NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 10 Organization Organization NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 11 declared declare VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 13 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 14 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 16 originally originally RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 17 started start VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 18 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 19 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 21 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 22 global global JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 23 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 4 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 1 Since since IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 2 then then RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 5 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 6 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 7 indeed indeed RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 8 spread spread VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 9 across across IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 10 all all DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 11 continents continent NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 12 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 13 threatening threaten VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 15 public public JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 16 health health NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 17 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 18 numerous numerous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 19 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 5 20 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 1 Although although IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 3 Case Case NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 4 Fatality fatality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 5 Rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 7 CFR CFR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 9 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 11 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 12 relatively relatively RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 13 low low JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 14 when when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 15 optimal optimal JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 16 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 17 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 18 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 19 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 20 granted grant VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 21 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 23 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 26 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 27 percentage percentage NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 28 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 29 severe severe JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 30 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 31 developing develop VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 32 severe severe JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 33 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 34 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 35 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 36 requiring require VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 37 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 38 support support NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 39 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 40 worryingly worryingly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 41 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 42 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 43 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 44 could could MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 45 lead lead VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 46 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 47 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 48 rapid rapid JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 49 saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 50 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 51 Intensive Intensive NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 52 Care Care NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 53 Units Units NNPS cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 54 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 55 ICUs ICUs NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 56 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 6 57 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 1 To to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 2 overcome overcome VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 3 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 4 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 6 most most JJS cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 7 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 8 enacted enact VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 9 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 10 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 11 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 7 12 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 3 study study NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 6 use use VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 7 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 8 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 9 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 10 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 11 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 12 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 13 perform perform VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 14 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 15 parametric parametric JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 16 regression regression NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 17 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 19 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 20 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 21 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 22 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 23 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 25 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 26 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 27 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 28 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 29 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 30 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 31 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 32 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 33 estimate estimate VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 34 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 35 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 36 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 37 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 38 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 39 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 40 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 41 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 42 basic basic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 43 reproduction reproduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 44 ratio ratio NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 45 R_0 R_0 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 8 46 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 2 find find VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 3 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 5 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 7 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 8 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 9 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 10 detectable detectable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 11 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 12 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 13 tends tend VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 14 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 15 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 16 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 18 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 19 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 20 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 21 progressive progressive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 22 strengthening strengthening NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 23 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 24 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 25 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 26 usually usually RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 27 reduces reduce VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 28 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 29 R_0 R_0 NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 30 below below IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 31 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 33 granting grant VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 34 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 35 decay decay NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 36 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 37 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 38 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 9 39 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 2 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 3 discuss discuss VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 5 biases bias NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 6 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 7 inconsistencies inconsistency NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 8 present present JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 9 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 11 publicly publicly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 12 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 13 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 14 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 15 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 16 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 18 providing provide VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 19 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 20 estimate estimate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 21 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 23 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 24 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 25 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 26 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 27 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 28 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 29 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 30 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 31 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 33 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 10 34 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 1 Lastly lastly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 3 despite despite IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 5 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 6 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 7 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 8 's 's POS cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 9 limitations limitation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 12 argue argue VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 13 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 15 idea idea NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 17 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 18 flattening flatten VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 20 curve curve NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 21 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 22 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 23 reach reach VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 24 herd herd NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 25 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 26 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 27 likely likely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 28 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 29 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 30 unfeasible unfeasible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 11 31 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 1 More More JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 2 than than IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 3 100 100 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 4 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 6 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 10 world world NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 11 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 12 currently currently RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 13 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 14 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 15 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 16 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 17 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 19 COVID- covid- NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 20 19 19 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 22 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 24 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 12 26 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 1 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 2 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 3 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 4 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 5 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 6 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 7 caused cause VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 8 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 11 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 12 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 13 virus virus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 15 previously previously RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 16 known know VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 17 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 18 2019-nCOV 2019-ncov CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 21 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 22 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 23 originated originate VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 24 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 25 December December NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 26 2019 2019 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 27 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 28 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 30 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 33 most most RBS cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 34 probably probably RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 35 following follow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 36 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 37 zoonotic zoonotic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 38 event event NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 40 3 3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 41 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 42 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 13 44 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 1 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 2 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 3 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 4 now now RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 5 affecting affect VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 6 many many JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 7 European european JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 8 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 10 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 11 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 12 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 13 different different JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 14 stages stage NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 16 contagion contagion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 17 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 18 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 19 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 21 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 14 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 2 virus virus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 3 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 4 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 5 found find VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 6 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 8 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 9 tract tract NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 11 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 12 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 13 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 14 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 15 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 16 before before IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 18 onset onset NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 19 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 20 symptoms symptom NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 22 where where WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 24 shows show VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 25 active active JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 26 replication replication NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 28 5 5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 31 persisting persist VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 32 7 7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 33 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 34 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 35 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 37 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 15 39 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 1 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 2 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 4 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 5 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 6 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 7 seriously seriously RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 8 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 10 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 12 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 13 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 14 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 16 France France NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 18 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 20 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 21 other other JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 22 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 23 being be VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 24 7 7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 25 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 26 14 14 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 27 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 28 behind behind RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 16 29 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 1 Although although IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 2 definitive definitive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 3 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 4 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 7 Case Case NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 8 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 9 Rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 11 CFR CFR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 13 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 14 still still RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 15 missing miss VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 16 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 18 current current JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 19 ones one NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 20 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 21 biased bias VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 22 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 24 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 25 policies policy NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 26 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 27 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 28 demographic demographic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 29 structure structure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 30 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 32 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 33 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 34 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 35 observed observed JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 36 CFR CFR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 37 may may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 38 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 39 as as RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 40 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 41 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 42 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 43 10.0 10.0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 44 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 45 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 46 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 47 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 48 4.0 4.0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 49 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 50 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 51 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 52 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 53 6.0 6.0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 54 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 55 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 56 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 57 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 58 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 59 4.3 4.3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 60 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 61 worldwide worldwide RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 17 62 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 2 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 5 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 6 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 7 observed observe VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 8 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 9 7 7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 10 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 11 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 12 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 15 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 16 present present VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 17 Acute acute JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 18 Respiratory Respiratory NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 19 Distress Distress NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 20 syndrome syndrome NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 22 ARDS ARDS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 24 caused cause VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 25 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 26 SARS SARS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 27 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 28 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 29 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 31 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 32 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 33 require require VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 34 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 35 support support NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 36 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 37 Intensive Intensive NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 38 Care Care NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 39 Units Units NNPS cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 41 ICUs ICUs NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 44 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 45 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 46 7 7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 47 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 18 48 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 1 European European NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 2 Countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 3 tend tend VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 4 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 5 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 6 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 7 4.2 4.2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 9 Portugal Portugal NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 11 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 19 12 29.2 29.2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 2 Germany Germany NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 4 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 5 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 6 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 7 100,000 100,000 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 8 inhabitants inhabitant NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 10 8) 8) NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 12 EU EU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 13 average average NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 14 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 15 11.5 11.5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 20 17 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 2 indicates indicate VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 3 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 4 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 5 exponential exponential JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 6 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 7 like like JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 8 growth growth NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 9 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 11 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 12 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 13 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 14 rapidly rapidly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 15 reach reach VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 16 oversaturation oversaturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 17 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 19 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 20 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 21 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 22 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 23 thereby thereby RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 24 decreasing decrease VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 26 quality quality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 27 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 28 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 29 medical medical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 30 treatments treatment NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 31 provided provide VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 32 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 33 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 34 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 35 worsening worsen VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 36 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 37 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 38 fatality fatality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 39 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 41 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 42 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 43 9 9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 21 45 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 1 To to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 2 avoid avoid VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 3 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 4 scenario scenario NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 6 almost almost RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 7 every every DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 8 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 9 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 10 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 12 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 13 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 14 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 15 put put VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 16 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 17 place place NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 18 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 19 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 20 contain contain VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 23 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 24 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 25 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 26 attempt attempt NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 27 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 28 relieve relieve VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 30 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 31 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 32 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 33 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 34 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 22 35 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 1 When when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 3 comes come VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 4 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 6 modeling modeling NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 8 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 9 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 10 affect affect VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 12 basic basic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 13 reproduction reproduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 14 ratio ratio NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 15 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 16 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 18 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 19 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 21 expected expect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 22 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 23 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 24 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 25 directly directly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 26 generated generate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 27 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 28 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 29 infected infected JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 30 individual individual NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 31 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 32 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 33 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 34 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 35 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 36 infection infection NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 38 10 10 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 23 40 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 1 Current current JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 4 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 5 value value NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 6 range range VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 7 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 8 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 9 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 10 6.5 6.5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 11 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 12 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 14 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 17 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 20 13 13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 23 14 14 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 25 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 26 3.1 3.1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 27 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 28 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 29 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 30 phase phase NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 31 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 32 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 33 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 34 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 35 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 37 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 24 39 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 2 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 4 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 6 Exposed expose VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 8 Infected Infected NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 10 Removed remove VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 13 16 16 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 15 modeling modeling NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 17 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 19 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 20 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 25 21 = = NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 1 β β NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 2 / / SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 3 γ γ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 5 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 6 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 7 representing represent VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 9 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 11 contacts contact NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 12 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 13 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 14 infected infected JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 15 individual individual NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 16 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 17 unit unit NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 19 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 20 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 21 γ γ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 22 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 24 period period NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 25 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 26 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 27 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 28 patient patient NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 29 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 30 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 26 31 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 1 When when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 2 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 3 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 4 > > SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 5 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 6 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 8 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 9 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 10 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 11 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 12 growing grow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 13 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 14 else else RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 18 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 19 receding recede VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 27 20 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 1 Countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 2 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 3 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 7 deployed deploy VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 8 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 9 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 10 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 11 acted act VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 12 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 13 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 14 two two CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 15 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 28 16 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 1 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 3 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 4 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 5 acted act VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 6 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 7 R R NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 8 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 9 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 10 quarantining quarantine VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 11 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 12 hospitalizing hospitalize VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 13 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 14 as as RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 15 soon soon RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 16 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 17 they -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 18 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 19 becoming become VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 20 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 22 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 23 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 24 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 25 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 26 elapsed elapse VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 27 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 28 symptoms symptom NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 29 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 30 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 31 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 32 2.3 2.3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 34 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 35 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 36 13 13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 38 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 39 2.9 2.9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 40 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 42 14 14 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 29 44 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 1 Similar similar JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 2 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 3 have have VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 4 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 5 adopted adopt VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 6 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 8 European european JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 9 coun coun NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 10 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 11 tries try NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 12 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 13 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 15 started start VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 16 spreading spread VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 18 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 30 20 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 1 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 2 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 4 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 5 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 6 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 7 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 8 Europe Europe NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 10 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 12 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 14 cluster cluster NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 15 prompted prompt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 17 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 20 town town NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 22 Codogno Codogno NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 23 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 24 later later RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 25 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 27 Lodi Lodi NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 28 province province NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 31 29 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 2 further further JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 3 spreading spreading NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 6 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 7 led lead VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 8 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 10 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 13 most most RBS cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 14 affected affected JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 15 regions region NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 16 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 17 northern northern JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 18 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 19 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 20 eventually eventually RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 23 entire entire JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 24 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 32 25 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 2 growth growth NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 4 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 5 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 6 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 7 started start VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 8 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 9 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 10 delay delay NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 11 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 12 respect respect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 13 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 14 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 16 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 18 growth growth NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 19 trend trend NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 20 prompted prompt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 22 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 23 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 24 lock lock VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 25 down down RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 26 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 27 Madrid Madrid NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 28 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 29 then then RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 30 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 31 entire entire JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 32 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 33 33 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 1 Similar similar JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 2 incremental incremental JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 3 actions action NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 4 have have VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 5 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 6 adopted adopt VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 7 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 8 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 10 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 12 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 13 13 13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 15 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 16 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 17 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 18 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 19 18 18 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 21 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 34 22 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 3 study study NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 6 collected collect VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 8 publicly publicly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 9 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 10 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 11 regarding regard VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 12 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 13 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 14 recovered recover VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 15 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 16 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 17 related relate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 18 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 21 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 22 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 23 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 25 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 26 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 27 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 28 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 35 29 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 1 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 3 trained train VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 4 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 5 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 6 SEIR seir NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 7 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 8 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 9 perform perform VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 10 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 11 parametric parametric JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 12 regression regression NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 13 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 14 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 15 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 16 series series NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 36 17 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 2 modeled model VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 4 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 5 progression progression NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 6 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 7 those those DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 8 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 9 inferring infer VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 11 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 13 basic basic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 15 ratio ratio NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 16 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 17 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 18 due due IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 19 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 21 introduction introduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 22 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 23 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 24 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 25 issued issue VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 26 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 27 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 28 aimed aim VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 29 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 30 slowing slow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 32 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 37 33 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 1 Approaches approach NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 2 similar similar JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 3 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 4 ours our NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 5 could could MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 6 help help VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 7 governments government NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 8 nowcasting nowcaste VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 10 behavior behavior NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 13 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 14 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 15 detecting detect VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 16 flaws flaw NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 17 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 19 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 20 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 21 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 22 place place NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 23 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 24 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 25 act act VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 26 as as RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 27 rapidly rapidly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 28 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 29 possible possible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 31 ensuring ensure VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 32 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 33 proper proper JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 34 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 35 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 36 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 37 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 38 38 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 2 show show VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 3 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 6 learned learn VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 7 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 9 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 10 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 11 suggest suggest VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 12 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 13 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 14 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 17 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 19 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 21 most most RBS cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 22 drastic drastic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 23 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 24 observed observe VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 25 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 26 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 27 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 28 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 29 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 30 61 61 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 31 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 32 reduction reduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 33 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 34 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 35 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 36 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 37 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 38 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 39 introduced introduce VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 40 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 41 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 42 23 23 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 43 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 44 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 39 45 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 2 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 3 provide provide VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 4 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 5 estimation estimation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 8 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 9 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 11 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 12 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 13 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 14 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 15 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 16 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 17 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 19 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 21 suggesting suggest VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 22 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 23 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 25 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 26 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 27 could could MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 28 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 29 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 30 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 31 that that DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 32 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 33 around around IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 34 3 3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 35 times time NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 36 higher high JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 37 than than IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 39 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 40 count count NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 41 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 42 2 2 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 44 unreported unreported JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 45 people people NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 46 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 47 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 48 20 20 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 49 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 50 29-yrs 29-yrs CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 51 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 52 group group NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 53 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 54 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 55 played play VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 56 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 57 crucial crucial JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 58 role role NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 59 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 60 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 61 virus virus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 62 diffusion diffusion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 40 63 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 1 Finally finally RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 4 argue argue VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 5 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 7 idea idea NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 8 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 9 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 10 flattening flatten VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 12 curve curve NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 13 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 15 i.e. i.e. FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 17 reducing reduce VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 19 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 20 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 24 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 25 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 26 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 27 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 28 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 29 allow allow VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 30 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 31 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 32 build build NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 33 up up IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 34 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 35 natural natural JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 36 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 37 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 39 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 41 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 42 likely likely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 43 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 44 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 45 unfeasible unfeasible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 46 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 47 since since IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 48 reaching reach VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 49 herd herd NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 50 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 51 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 52 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 53 manageable manageable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 54 pace pace NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 55 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 56 probably probably RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 57 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 58 possible possible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 59 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 60 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 61 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 62 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 63 scale scale NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 41 64 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 2 performed perform VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 3 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 4 parametric parametric JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 5 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 6 regression regression NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 8 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 9 Methods Methods NNPS cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 11 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 13 mainland mainland NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 14 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 15 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 17 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 18 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 19 training train VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 20 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 21 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 22 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 23 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 24 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 25 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 26 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 27 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 28 series series NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 29 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 30 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 32 goal goal NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 33 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 34 inferring infer VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 36 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 37 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 38 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 39 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 42 40 = = NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 1 β β NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 2 / / SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 3 γ γ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 4 produced produce VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 5 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 7 increasingly increasingly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 8 stringent stringent JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 9 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 10 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 11 introduced introduce VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 12 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 14 Chinese chinese JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 15 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 17 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 18 mainly mainly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 19 aim aim VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 20 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 21 reducing reduce VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 23 frequency frequency NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 26 contacts contact NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 27 β β NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 28 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 29 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 30 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 43 31 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 2 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 3 used use VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 5 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 6 i i PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 7 before before RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 8 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 9 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 11 introduction introduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 13 each each DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 14 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 15 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 16 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 17 sole sole JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 18 trainable trainable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 21 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 22 SEIR seir NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 23 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 44 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 2 kept keep VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 3 γ γ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 4 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 5 fixed fix VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 6 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 7 2.5 2.5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 9 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 10 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 12 mean mean NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 13 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 15 current current JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 16 estimates estimate NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 17 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 19 mean mean JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 20 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 21 elapsed elapse VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 22 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 23 insurgence insurgence NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 25 symptoms symptom NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 26 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 27 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 28 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 29 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 31 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 32 correspond correspond VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 33 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 34 2.3 2.3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 36 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 37 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 38 13 13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 40 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 41 2.9 2.9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 42 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 44 14 14 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 45 46 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 3 study study NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 5 used use VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 6 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 7 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 8 incubation incubation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 46 9 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 47 1 δ δ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 1 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 2 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 3 5.2 5.2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 4 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 6 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 7 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 10 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 48 12 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 2 implementation implementation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 5 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 6 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 7 measure measure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 9 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 10 happened happen VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 11 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 12 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 13 23 23 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 15 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 17 when when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 18 all all DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 19 public public JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 20 transportation transportation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 21 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 22 suspended suspend VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 23 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 24 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 26 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 27 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 28 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 29 61 61 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 30 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 31 decrease decrease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 32 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 33 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 34 inferred infer VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 35 R R NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 36 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 37 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 38 bringing bring VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 39 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 40 down down RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 41 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 42 4.94 4.94 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 44 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 45 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 46 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 47 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 48 4.80,4 4.80,4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 49 .99 .99 NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 50 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 52 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 53 1.90 1.90 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 54 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 55 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 56 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 57 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 58 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 59 1.84,2.0 1.84,2.0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 60 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 61 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 49 62 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 2 introduction introduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 5 more more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 6 stringent stringent JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 7 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 8 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 9 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 10 23 23 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 11 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 12 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 13 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 14 including include VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 15 closing close VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 16 all all DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 17 non non JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 18 - - JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 19 essential essential JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 20 companies company NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 21 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 22 manufacturing manufacture VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 23 plants plant NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 24 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 25 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 26 province province NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 27 corresponded correspond VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 28 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 29 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 30 further further JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 31 reduction reduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 32 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 33 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 34 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 35 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 36 identified identify VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 37 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 38 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 39 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 40 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 41 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 42 down down RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 43 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 44 0.055 0.055 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 50 45 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 1 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 2 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 4 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 5 European european JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 6 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 7 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 8 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 9 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 10 severely severely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 11 hit hit VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 12 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 17 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 19 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 21 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 22 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 23 writing writing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 25 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 26 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 27 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 28 second second JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 29 nation nation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 30 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 32 world world NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 33 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 34 terms term NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 35 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 36 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 37 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 38 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 39 92,472 92,472 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 51 40 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 2 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 3 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 4 reacted react VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 5 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 8 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 9 closing close VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 10 all all DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 11 schools school NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 12 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 13 universities university NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 14 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 15 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 16 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 18 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 20 putting put VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 22 north north NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 23 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 24 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 25 under under IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 26 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 27 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 28 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 29 8 8 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 31 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 33 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 34 extending extend VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 35 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 36 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 37 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 39 entire entire JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 40 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 41 few few JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 42 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 43 later later RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 44 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 45 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 46 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 47 10 10 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 48 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 49 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 52 50 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 1 On on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 2 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 3 20 20 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 5 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 6 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 8 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 9 introduced introduce VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 10 even even RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 11 stricter strict JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 12 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 13 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 14 banning ban VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 15 open open JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 16 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 17 air air NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 18 sports sport NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 19 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 20 closing closing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 21 parks park NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 22 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 23 public public JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 24 green green NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 53 25 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 2 used use VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 4 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 54 7 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 1 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 2 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 3 provided provide VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 4 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 6 Protezione Protezione NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 7 Civile Civile NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 8 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 9 infer infer VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 11 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 12 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 13 before before IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 14 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 15 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 17 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 18 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 19 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 20 implemented implement VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 55 21 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 2 fixed fix VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 3 γ γ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 4 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 5 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 6 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 7 equal equal JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 8 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 9 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 11 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 12 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 14 median median JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 15 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 16 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 17 insurgence insurgence NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 19 symptoms symptom NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 20 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 21 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 22 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 23 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 24 estimated estimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 25 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 27 Istituto Istituto NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 56 28 Superiore Superiore NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 1 di di NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 2 Sanità Sanità NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 4 ISS ISS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 7 17 17 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 57 9 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 2 only only JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 3 free free JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 5 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 6 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 7 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 8 SEIR seir NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 9 regression regression NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 10 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 11 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 13 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 14 i i PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 15 associate associate VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 16 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 17 each each DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 18 date date NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 19 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 20 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 21 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 22 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 23 have have VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 24 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 25 implemented implement VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 26 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 27 only only RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 28 free free JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 29 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 31 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 32 shown show VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 33 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 34 Fig Fig NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 58 35 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 59 1 2 2 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 59 2 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 1 From from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 3 analysis analysis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 6 appears appear VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 7 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 9 initially initially RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 10 inferred infer VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 11 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 12 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 13 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 14 3.31 3.31 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 16 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 17 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 18 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 20 3.13 3.13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 22 3.45 3.45 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 25 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 26 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 27 line line NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 28 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 30 3.1 3.1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 31 estimate estimate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 32 provided provide VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 33 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 35 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 60 37 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 61 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 61 2 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 61 3 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 61 4 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 61 5 2.53 2.53 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 2 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 3 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 4 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 5 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 6 2.2 2.2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 8 2.9 2.9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 11 inferred infer VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 12 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 14 nationwide nationwide JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 15 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 16 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 17 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 18 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 19 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 20 10 10 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 22 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 23 suggests suggest VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 24 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 25 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 26 measure measure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 27 had have VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 28 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 29 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 30 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 31 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 32 that that DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 33 did do VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 34 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 35 provide provide VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 36 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 37 immediate immediate JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 38 dramatic dramatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 39 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 40 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 41 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 42 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 62 43 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 1 For for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 2 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 5 effects effect NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 6 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 7 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 8 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 9 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 10 initially initially RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 11 less less RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 12 evident evident JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 13 than than IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 15 ones one NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 16 implemented implement VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 17 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 18 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 20 even even RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 21 though though IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 23 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 24 clearly clearly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 25 departed depart VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 26 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 27 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 28 situation situation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 29 without without IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 30 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 31 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 32 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 33 place place NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 35 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 36 Suppl Suppl NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 63 37 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 64 1 Fig fig NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 64 2 . . NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 64 3 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 64 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 64 5 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 2 suggests suggest VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 3 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 5 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 6 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 7 effective effective JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 8 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 9 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 10 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 11 implementation implementation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 12 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 13 more more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 14 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 65 15 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 1 Allowing allow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 2 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 3 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 4 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 5 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 6 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 7 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 8 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 9 20 20 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 11 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 12 nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 13 shows show VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 14 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 15 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 16 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 17 decreased decrease VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 18 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 19 0.69 0.69 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 21 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 22 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 23 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 25 0.15 0.15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 26 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 27 1.32 1.32 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 31 initiating initiate VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 32 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 33 decrease decrease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 34 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 36 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 37 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 38 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 66 39 _SP cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 1 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 2 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 3 one one CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 6 European european JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 7 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 9 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 13 arrived arrive VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 14 later later RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 16 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 18 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 19 confirmed confirm VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 20 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 21 reported report VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 22 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 23 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 24 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 26 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 67 27 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 2 growth growth NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 5 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 7 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 9 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 10 started start VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 11 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 12 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 13 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 15 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 17 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 18 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 19 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 20 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 22 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 23 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 24 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 25 Belgian belgian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 26 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 27 issued issue VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 28 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 29 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 30 involving involve VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 32 closure closure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 33 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 34 schools school NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 35 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 36 cafes cafe NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 37 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 38 restaurants restaurant NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 39 starting start VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 40 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 41 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 42 14 14 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 43 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 44 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 68 45 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 2 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 3 then then RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 4 extended extend VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 5 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 6 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 8 enforcing enforce VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 9 stricter strict JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 10 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 11 physical physical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 12 distancing distancing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 13 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 15 starting start VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 16 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 17 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 18 18 18 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 20 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 22 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 23 noon noon NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 69 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 2 modeled model VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 4 growth growth NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 9 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 10 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 11 using use VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 13 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 14 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 15 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 16 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 17 infer infer VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 19 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 20 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 22 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 23 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 24 through through IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 25 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 26 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 27 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 28 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 29 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 30 i i PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 31 parameters parameter VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 70 32 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 2 fixed fix VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 3 γ γ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 4 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 5 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 6 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 7 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 8 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 10 since since IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 11 no no DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 12 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 13 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 14 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 15 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 16 mean mean JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 17 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 18 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 19 symptoms symptom NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 20 onset onset NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 21 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 22 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 23 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 24 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 25 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 26 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 27 sources source NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 28 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 29 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 30 assumed assume VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 31 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 32 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 33 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 34 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 35 upper upper JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 36 bound bind VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 37 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 38 terms term NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 39 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 40 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 41 efficiency efficiency NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 71 42 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 72 1 From from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 72 2 Fig Fig NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 72 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 1 4 4 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 3 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 4 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 5 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 7 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 8 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 9 infers infer VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 10 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 11 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 12 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 13 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 14 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 15 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 16 decreases decrease VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 17 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 19 original original JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 73 20 3.38 3.38 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 2 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 3 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 4 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 5 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 6 2.90,3.85 2.90,3.85 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 9 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 74 10 2.00 2.00 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 2 CI CI NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 3 95 95 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 4 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 5 [ [ -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 6 1.81,2.19 1.81,2.19 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 75 9 , , . cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 1 suggesting suggest VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 2 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 3 situation situation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 4 similar similar JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 5 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 6 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 7 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 9 introduction introduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 12 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 13 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 14 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 76 15 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 2 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 3 initial initial JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 4 value value NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 5 obtained obtain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 6 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 7 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 8 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 9 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 10 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 11 partly partly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 12 explained explain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 13 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 14 under under NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 15 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 16 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 17 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 18 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 20 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 21 Discussion Discussion NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 77 24 _SP cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 1 Although although IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 3 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 4 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 5 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 6 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 7 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 8 dates date VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 9 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 10 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 11 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 12 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 13 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 15 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 17 there there RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 18 did do VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 19 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 20 show show VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 21 worrying worrying JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 22 numbers number NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 23 until until IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 24 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 25 end end NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 26 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 27 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 28 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 29 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 30 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 31 rapid rapid JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 32 growth growth NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 33 starting start VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 34 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 36 beginning beginning NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 37 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 38 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 78 39 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 2 crisis crisis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 3 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 4 answered answer VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 5 first first RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 6 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 7 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 8 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 9 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 11 Community Community NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 13 Madrid Madrid NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 15 enforced enforce VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 16 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 17 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 18 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 20 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 21 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 22 followed follow VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 23 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 24 nationwide nationwide JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 25 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 26 enforced enforce VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 27 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 28 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 29 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 31 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 79 32 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 2 used use VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 4 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 5 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 6 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 7 infer infer VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 9 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 10 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 11 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 12 due due IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 13 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 15 implementation implementation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 18 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 19 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 80 20 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 2 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 4 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 5 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 6 Belgian belgian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 7 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 10 observe observe VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 11 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 12 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 13 decrease decrease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 14 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 15 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 16 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 17 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 19 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 21 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 22 deems deem VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 24 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 25 drastic drastic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 26 enough enough RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 27 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 28 reverse reverse VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 30 trend trend NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 31 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 32 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 34 already already RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 81 35 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 2 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 3 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 4 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 6 under under NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 7 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 8 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 9 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 11 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 12 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 14 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 15 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 16 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 82 17 _SP cord-336714-brurrmi4 83 1 testing test VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 83 2 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 2 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 3 counts count NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 5 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 6 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 7 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 9 manu manu NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 10 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 11 severely severely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 12 under under RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 13 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 14 estimated estimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 15 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 16 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 17 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 18 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 19 biases bias NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 21 due due IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 22 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 23 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 84 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 1 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 2 limited limited JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 3 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 5 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 6 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 7 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 8 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 9 run run VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 10 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 11 2 2 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 13 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 14 preferential preferential JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 15 usage usage NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 16 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 17 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 18 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 19 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 20 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 21 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 22 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 23 subjects subject NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 85 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 2 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 3 attempt attempt NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 4 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 5 address address VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 6 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 7 issue issue NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 10 computed compute VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 11 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 12 estimate estimate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 15 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 16 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 17 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 18 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 19 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 21 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 22 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 23 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 24 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 26 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 86 27 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 1 To to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 2 do do VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 3 so so RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 5 relied rely VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 6 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 8 fatality fatality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 9 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 11 CFR CFR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 15 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 16 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 18 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 19 distribution distribution NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 20 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 22 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 23 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 24 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 25 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 26 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 27 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 28 adopted adopt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 29 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 30 extensive extensive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 31 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 32 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 33 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 34 face face VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 36 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 37 crisis crisis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 38 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 39 administering administer VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 40 one one CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 41 test test NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 42 every every DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 43 142 142 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 44 citizens citizen NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 45 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 46 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 47 no no DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 48 evident evident JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 49 biases bias NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 87 50 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 2 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 3 considered consider VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 4 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 5 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 6 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 8 most most RBS cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 9 reliable reliable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 10 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 11 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 12 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 13 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 14 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 15 shows show VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 16 indeed indeed RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 17 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 18 Pearson Pearson NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 19 correlation correlation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 20 coefficient coefficient NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 21 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 23 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 25 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 26 detected detect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 27 among among IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 28 10-yrs 10-yrs CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 29 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 30 bins bin NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 31 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 32 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 33 demographic demographic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 34 structure structure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 35 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 36 r r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 37 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 38 0.69 0.69 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 40 p p NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 41 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 42 value= value= NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 43 0.039 0.039 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 45 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 46 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 47 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 48 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 49 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 50 r r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 51 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 52 0.21 0.21 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 53 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 54 p p NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 55 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 56 value= value= NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 57 0.591 0.591 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 58 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 59 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 60 suggesting suggest VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 61 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 62 much much RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 63 more more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 64 skewed skewed JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 65 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 88 66 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 2 estimation estimation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 3 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 4 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 5 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 6 three three CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 7 other other JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 8 assumptions assumption NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 9 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 10 1 1 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 12 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 14 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 15 propagated propagate VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 16 similarly similarly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 17 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 18 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 19 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 20 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 21 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 22 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 24 different different JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 25 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 26 bins bin NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 27 ; ; : cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 28 2 2 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 30 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 31 South south JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 32 Korean korean JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 33 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 34 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 35 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 36 have have VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 37 similar similar JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 38 standards standard NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 39 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 40 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 41 suggesting suggest VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 42 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 43 comparable comparable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 44 fatality fatality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 45 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 46 once once IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 47 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 48 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 49 bias bias NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 50 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 51 addressed address VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 52 ; ; : cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 53 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 54 3 3 LS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 56 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 57 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 58 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 59 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 60 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 61 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 62 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 63 e.g. e.g. RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 64 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 65 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 66 availability availability NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 67 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 68 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 69 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 70 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 71 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 72 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 73 reached reach VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 74 saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 75 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 76 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 77 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 78 satisfy satisfy VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 79 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 80 condition condition NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 81 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 82 indeed indeed RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 83 chose choose VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 84 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 85 perform perform VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 86 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 87 estimation estimation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 88 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 89 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 90 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 91 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 92 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 93 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 94 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 95 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 96 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 97 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 98 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 99 appear appear VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 100 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 101 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 102 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 103 result result NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 104 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 105 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 106 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 107 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 108 rapidly rapidly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 109 approaching approach VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 110 saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 89 111 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 2 first first RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 3 adjusted adjust VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 5 South south JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 6 Korean korean JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 7 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 8 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 9 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 10 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 11 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 12 group group NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 13 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 14 respect respect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 15 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 17 demographic demographic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 18 structure structure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 19 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 21 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 22 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 90 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 1 As as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 2 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 3 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 4 Figure figure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 5 5 5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 7 green green JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 8 bars bar NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 12 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 14 confirmed confirm VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 15 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 16 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 17 heavily heavily RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 18 skewed skewed JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 19 towards towards IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 20 older old JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 21 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 22 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 23 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 25 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 26 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 27 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 28 more more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 29 consistent consistent JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 30 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 32 demographic demographic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 33 structure structure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 34 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 36 South south JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 37 Korean korean JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 38 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 91 39 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 2 argue argue VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 3 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 5 skewness skewness NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 8 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 9 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 10 towards towards IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 11 older old JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 12 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 13 groups group NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 14 results result VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 15 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 17 fact fact NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 18 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 19 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 21 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 22 26 26 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 23 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 24 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 25 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 27 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 28 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 29 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 30 changed change VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 31 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 32 blanket blanket NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 33 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 34 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 35 focusing focus VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 36 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 37 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 38 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 39 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 40 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 41 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 42 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 44 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 46 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 47 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 48 introducing introduce VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 49 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 50 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 51 sampling sampling NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 52 bias bias NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 92 53 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 2 then then RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 3 adjust adjust VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 5 proportion proportion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 7 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 8 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 9 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 10 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 11 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 13 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 14 Suppl Suppl NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 93 15 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 1 Material material NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 3 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 4 computing compute VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 6 proportion proportion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 94 7 ... ... . cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 2 orange orange NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 3 bars bar NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 4 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 5 Figure figure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 6 5 5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 9 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 11 computed compute VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 13 expected expect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 14 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 16 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 17 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 18 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 19 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 20 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 22 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 23 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 24 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 25 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 26 use use VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 27 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 28 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 29 further further RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 30 adjust adjust VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 32 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 33 distribution distribution NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 95 34 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 3 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 5 bins bin NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 6 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 7 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 8 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 9 30 30 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 10 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 11 old old JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 12 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 13 undefined undefined JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 15 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 17 addressed address VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 18 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 19 issue issue NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 20 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 21 using use VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 23 corrected correct VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 24 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 25 distribution distribution NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 26 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 27 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 28 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 29 ... ... NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 96 30 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 1 Using use VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 3 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 4 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 5 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 6 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 7 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 9 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 10 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 11 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 12 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 13 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 14 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 17 find find VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 18 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 19 estimated estimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 20 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 22 real real JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 23 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 25 45 45 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 26 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 27 052 052 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 28 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 29 instead instead RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 30 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 32 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 33 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 34 113 113 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 35 officially officially RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 36 reported report VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 37 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 38 indicating indicate VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 39 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 40 three three CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 41 fold fold JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 42 increase increase NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 97 43 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 1 Analysis analysis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 2 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 4 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 5 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 6 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 7 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 8 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 9 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 12 progression progression NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 98 13 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 2 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 4 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 5 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 6 putting put VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 7 immense immense JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 8 pressure pressure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 9 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 11 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 12 systems system NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 14 many many JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 15 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 16 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 18 spreads spread VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 19 widely widely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 22 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 23 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 24 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 25 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 26 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 27 mild mild JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 28 form form NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 30 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 33 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 34 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 35 significant significant JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 36 percentage percentage NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 37 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 39 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 40 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 42 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 43 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 44 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 45 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 46 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 47 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 48 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 49 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 50 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 51 7 7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 54 requires require VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 55 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 56 treatment treatment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 57 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 58 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 59 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 60 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 61 limited limited JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 62 resource resource NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 63 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 64 any any DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 65 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 66 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 67 including include VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 68 European european JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 69 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 70 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 71 8) 8) NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 99 72 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 2 availability availability NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 4 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 5 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 6 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 7 crucial crucial JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 9 9 9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 11 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 12 so so RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 13 far far RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 14 there there EX cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 15 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 16 no no DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 17 established establish VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 18 curative curative JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 19 treatment treatment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 20 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 21 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 22 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 24 clinical clinical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 25 best good JJS cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 26 practice practice NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 27 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 28 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 29 put put VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 30 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 31 suffering suffer VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 32 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 33 Acute acute JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 34 Respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 35 Distress Distress NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 36 Syndrome Syndrome NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 37 under under IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 38 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 39 support support NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 40 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 41 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 42 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 43 period period NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 44 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 45 may may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 46 last last VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 47 up up IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 48 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 49 two two CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 50 weeks week NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 51 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 52 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 100 54 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 1 Saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 2 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 3 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 4 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 5 causes cause VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 6 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 7 dramatic dramatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 8 decrease decrease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 9 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 11 quality quality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 14 medical medical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 15 treatments treatment NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 16 provided provide VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 17 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 18 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 20 thereby thereby RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 21 worsening worsen VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 23 observed observed JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 24 Case Case NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 25 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 26 Rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 28 CFR CFR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 31 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 33 9 9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 101 35 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 1 To to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 2 analyze analyze VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 4 burden burden NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 5 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 9 brings bring VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 10 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 12 national national JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 13 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 14 systems system NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 17 affected affected JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 18 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 21 plot plot VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 23 evolution evolution NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 24 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 25 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 26 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 27 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 28 log log NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 29 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 30 CFR CFR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 32 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 33 log log NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 34 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 35 ratio ratio NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 36 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 37 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 38 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 39 confirmed confirm VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 40 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 41 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 102 43 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 1 During during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 3 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 4 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 10 expect expect VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 11 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 12 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 13 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 14 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 15 noisy noisy JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 16 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 17 due due IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 18 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 20 delay delay NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 21 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 22 infections infection NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 23 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 24 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 27 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 28 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 29 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 30 remains remain VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 31 very very RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 32 low low JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 33 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 34 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 35 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 36 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 37 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 39 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 40 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 41 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 42 grows grow VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 103 43 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 1 After after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 3 transition transition NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 4 period period NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 6 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 7 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 8 occur occur VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 9 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 10 if if IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 11 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 12 units unit NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 13 do do VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 14 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 15 reach reach VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 16 saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 19 expect expect VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 20 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 21 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 22 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 23 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 24 stay stay VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 25 constant constant JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 104 26 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 1 However however RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 3 if if IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 4 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 5 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 6 increases increase VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 8 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 9 suggests suggest VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 10 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 12 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 13 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 14 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 15 under under IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 16 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 17 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 19 tries try VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 20 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 21 cope cope VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 22 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 24 growing grow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 25 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 26 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 27 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 28 requiring require VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 29 ARDS ARDS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 30 treatment treatment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 105 31 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 1 Towards towards IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 3 end end NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 6 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 8 when when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 10 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 11 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 13 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 14 flattens flatten VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 15 out out RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 18 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 19 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 20 expected expect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 21 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 22 increase increase VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 23 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 24 again again RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 25 due due JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 26 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 27 delay delay VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 28 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 30 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 31 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 32 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 33 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 34 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 35 occurrence occurrence NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 36 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 37 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 106 38 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 2 . . NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 3 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 4 shows show VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 5 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 6 log log NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 7 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 8 ratio ratio NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 9 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 10 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 11 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 12 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 107 13 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 1 After after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 2 some some DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 3 expected expect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 4 initial initial JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 5 oscillations oscillation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 7 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 8 possibly possibly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 9 due due JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 10 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 12 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 13 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 15 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 16 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 19 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 20 showed show VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 21 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 22 steep steep JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 23 increase increase NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 24 incidence incidence NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 25 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 26 deaths death NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 27 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 28 respect respect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 29 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 30 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 31 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 32 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 33 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 34 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 35 indicating indicate VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 36 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 37 significant significant JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 38 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 39 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 40 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 41 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 42 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 43 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 44 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 45 possibly possibly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 46 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 47 degradation degradation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 48 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 49 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 50 quality quality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 51 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 52 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 53 care care NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 54 provided provide VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 108 55 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 1 Towards towards IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 4 end end NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 9 when when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 11 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 13 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 14 flattens flatten VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 17 observe observe VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 18 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 19 slower slow RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 20 steady steady JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 21 increase increase NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 109 22 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 2 same same JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 3 plot plot NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 4 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 5 shown show VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 6 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 7 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 9 Figure Figure NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 10 7 7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 110 11 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 1 Shortly shortly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 2 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 4 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 5 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 11 mortality mortality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 12 rate rate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 13 started start VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 14 growing grow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 15 quickly quickly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 17 suggesting suggest VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 18 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 19 increasing increase VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 20 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 21 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 22 ICUs ICUs NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 23 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 24 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 25 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 26 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 27 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 28 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 29 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 30 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 31 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 32 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 34 9 9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 36 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 111 37 _SP cord-336714-brurrmi4 112 1 Effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 112 2 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 112 3 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 112 4 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 112 5 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 1 Containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 2 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 3 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 4 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 5 significantly significantly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 6 reduced reduce VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 7 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 8 spreading spreading NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 113 9 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 2 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 3 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 4 resulted result VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 5 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 6 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 7 61 61 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 8 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 9 decrease decrease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 13 factor factor NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 14 R R NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 15 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 16 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 18 second second JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 20 stricter strict JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 21 wave wave NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 22 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 23 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 24 eventually eventually RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 25 managed manage VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 26 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 27 bring bring VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 28 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 29 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 30 close close VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 31 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 32 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 114 33 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 2 do do VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 3 however however RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 4 observe observe VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 5 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 6 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 8 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 9 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 10 able able JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 11 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 12 fit fit VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 14 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 16 Belgian belgian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 18 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 19 Spanish spanish JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 20 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 21 relatively relatively RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 22 well well RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 23 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 24 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 25 fit fit NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 26 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 27 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 28 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 29 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 30 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 31 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 32 rather rather RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 33 mediocre mediocre JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 115 34 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 2 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 3 unsure unsure JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 4 about about IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 5 what what WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 6 could could MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 7 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 8 caused cause VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 9 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 10 discrepancy discrepancy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 116 11 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 1 By by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 2 contrast contrast NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 4 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 5 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 6 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 7 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 8 appear appear VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 9 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 10 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 11 had have VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 12 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 13 more more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 14 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 15 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 117 16 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 2 reason reason NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 3 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 4 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 5 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 6 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 7 entirely entirely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 8 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 118 9 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 1 Data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 2 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 4 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 5 region region NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 6 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 7 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 8 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 9 anonymous anonymous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 10 cell cell NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 11 phone phone NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 12 tracking tracking NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 14 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 15 showed show VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 16 here here RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 19 suggests suggest VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 20 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 21 almost almost RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 22 40 40 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 23 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 26 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 27 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 28 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 29 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 30 still still RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 31 commuting commute VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 32 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 33 moving move VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 34 around around RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 35 notwithstanding notwithstanding IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 36 quarantine quarantine NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 37 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 38 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 39 although although IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 40 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 41 trend trend NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 42 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 43 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 44 26 26 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 45 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 46 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 47 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 48 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 49 16 16 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 50 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 51 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 52 clearly clearly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 53 indicates indicate VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 54 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 55 progressive progressive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 56 reduction reduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 57 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 58 displacements displacement NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 119 59 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 1 Such such JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 2 large large JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 3 percentage percentage NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 6 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 7 moving move VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 8 across across IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 9 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 10 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 11 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 12 part part NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 13 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 14 explained explain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 15 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 17 fact fact NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 18 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 19 factory factory NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 20 closures closure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 21 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 22 only only RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 23 partial partial JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 24 until until IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 25 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 26 23 23 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 27 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 28 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 29 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 30 when when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 32 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 33 government government NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 34 issued issue VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 35 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 36 decree decree NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 37 mandating mandate VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 39 immediate immediate JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 40 halt halt NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 41 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 42 all all DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 43 non non JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 44 - - JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 45 essential essential JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 46 production production NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 47 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 48 industries industry NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 49 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 50 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 51 businesses business NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 52 across across IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 53 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 54 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 120 55 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 1 Data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 2 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 4 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 5 Interior Interior NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 6 Minister Minister NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 8 18 18 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 10 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 11 indicates indicate VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 12 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 13 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 15 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 16 1.7 1.7 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 17 million million CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 18 police police NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 19 controls control NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 20 were be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 21 carried carry VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 22 out out RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 23 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 24 infractions infraction NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 25 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 27 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 28 registered register VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 29 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 30 4 4 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 31 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 32 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 33 controls control NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 121 34 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 2 analysis analysis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 5 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 6 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 7 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 8 suggested suggest VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 9 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 10 values value NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 11 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 12 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 13 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 15 despite despite IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 17 introduction introduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 19 strict strict JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 20 quarantine quarantine NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 21 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 22 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 23 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 24 possibly possibly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 25 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 26 explained explain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 27 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 28 some some DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 29 under under NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 30 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 31 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 32 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 33 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 34 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 122 35 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 1 Because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 2 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 3 limited limited JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 4 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 7 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 10 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 12 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 13 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 14 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 15 probably probably RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 16 significantly significantly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 17 underestimated underestimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 123 18 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 1 Because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 3 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 4 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 5 assumes assume VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 6 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 8 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 10 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 11 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 13 ones one NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 14 infecting infect VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 15 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 16 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 19 inferred infer VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 20 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 21 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 22 may may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 23 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 24 over over RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 25 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 26 estimated estimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 27 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 28 although although IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 29 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 30 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 32 same same JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 33 range range NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 34 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 35 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 36 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 37 estimations estimation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 38 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 39 other other JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 40 sources source NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 42 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 43 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 44 estimates estimate NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 45 range range VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 46 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 47 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 48 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 49 6.5 6.5 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 50 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 51 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 53 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 55 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 56 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 57 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 58 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 59 13 13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 60 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 61 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 62 14 14 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 63 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 64 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 65 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 66 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 67 estimate estimate NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 68 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 69 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 70 3.1 3.1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 71 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 72 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 73 first first JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 74 phase phase NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 75 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 76 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 77 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 78 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 79 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 80 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 81 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 82 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 83 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 124 84 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 1 limit limit VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 3 ability ability NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 4 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 5 draw draw VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 6 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 7 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 125 8 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 2 models model NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 3 fits fit VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 4 presented present VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 5 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 7 Results result NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 8 section section NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 9 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 10 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 11 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 13 officially officially RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 14 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 15 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 16 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 17 counts count VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 18 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 19 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 21 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 22 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 23 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 25 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 26 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 126 27 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 1 Even even RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 2 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 3 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 4 superficial superficial JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 5 analysis analysis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 7 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 8 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 10 several several JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 11 biases bias NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 12 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 13 hinder hinder VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 15 modeling modeling NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 17 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 18 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 19 become become VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 20 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 127 21 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 1 First first RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 4 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 6 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 7 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 8 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 9 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 10 run run VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 11 each each DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 12 day day NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 13 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 14 finite finite JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 16 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 17 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 19 limited limited JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 20 availability availability NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 22 supplies supply NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 23 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 24 personnel personnel NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 26 making make VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 27 blanket blanket NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 28 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 29 currently currently RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 30 impossible impossible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 31 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 32 perform perform VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 33 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 34 many many JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 35 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 128 36 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 2 results result VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 3 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 4 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 5 large large JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 6 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 8 unreported unreported JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 9 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 10 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 11 respect respect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 12 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 14 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 15 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 129 16 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 1 Second second JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 3 if if IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 4 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 5 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 6 performed perform VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 7 mainly mainly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 8 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 9 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 10 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 11 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 12 diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 13 purposes purpose NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 15 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 18 generally generally RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 19 higher high JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 20 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 23 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 24 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 27 resulting result VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 28 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 29 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 30 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 31 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 32 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 33 show show VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 34 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 35 striking striking JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 36 proportion proportion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 37 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 38 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 39 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 40 60 60 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 41 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 42 old old JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 43 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 44 regardless regardless RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 45 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 46 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 47 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 48 demographic demographic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 49 structure structure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 50 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 51 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 52 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 53 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 54 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 55 Suppl Suppl NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 130 56 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 131 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 131 2 . . NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 131 3 13 13 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 131 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 131 5 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 1 Another another DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 2 reason reason NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 3 why why WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 5 sheer sheer JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 6 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 8 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 9 performed perform VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 10 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 11 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 12 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 13 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 14 indication indication NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 17 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 19 bias bias NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 20 present present JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 21 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 23 data data NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 24 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 25 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 27 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 28 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 29 test test NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 30 performed perform VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 31 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 32 just just RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 33 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 34 upper upper JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 35 bound bind VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 36 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 37 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 38 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 39 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 40 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 41 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 42 screened screen VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 43 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 44 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 45 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 46 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 47 medical medical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 48 personnel personnel NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 49 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 50 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 51 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 52 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 53 exposure exposure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 54 may may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 55 undergo undergo VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 56 periodic periodic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 57 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 132 58 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 4 directives directive NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 7 Italian italian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 8 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 9 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 10 Health Health NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 11 indicates indicate VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 12 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 13 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 14 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 15 patient patient NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 16 must must MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 17 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 18 negative negative JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 19 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 20 two two CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 21 consecutive consecutive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 22 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 23 performed perform VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 24 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 25 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 26 24h 24h CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 27 delay delay NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 29 19 19 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 31 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 32 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 33 considered consider VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 34 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 35 having have VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 36 recovered recover VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 37 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 39 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 133 40 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 2 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 3 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 5 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 7 used use VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 8 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 9 fit fit VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 11 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 12 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 13 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 14 therefore therefore RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 15 most most RBS cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 16 probably probably RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 17 both both DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 18 severely severely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 19 underestimated underestimated JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 20 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 21 skewed skewed JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 22 towards towards IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 23 older old JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 24 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 25 groups group NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 26 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 27 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 28 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 134 29 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 1 Both both DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 2 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 3 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 4 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 5 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 6 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 8 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 9 instance instance NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 11 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 12 who who WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 13 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 14 diagnosed diagnose VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 15 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 16 suspect suspect JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 17 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 18 case case NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 19 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 20 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 21 phone phone NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 22 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 23 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 24 GP gp NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 26 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 27 who who WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 28 present present VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 29 no no DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 30 immediate immediate JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 31 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 32 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 33 complication complication NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 34 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 35 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 36 nor nor CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 37 tested test VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 38 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 39 nor nor CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 40 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 41 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 42 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 43 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 135 44 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 1 As as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 4 progresses progress VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 5 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 6 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 7 resources resource NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 8 become become VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 9 mobilized mobilize VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 11 testing test VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 12 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 13 increases increase NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 14 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 16 observe observe VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 17 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 18 growing grow VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 19 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 20 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 21 newly newly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 22 tested test VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 23 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 136 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 1 Interestingly interestingly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 4 estimation estimation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 7 actual actual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 9 vs. vs. FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 10 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 12 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 13 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 14 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 15 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 16 March March NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 17 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 19 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 21 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 22 suggests suggest VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 23 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 25 although although IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 26 heavily heavily RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 27 under under RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 28 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 29 represented represent VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 30 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 31 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 32 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 33 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 34 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 35 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 36 testing test VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 37 bias bias NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 38 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 39 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 40 20 20 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 41 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 42 29 29 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 43 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 44 group group NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 45 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 46 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 47 most most RBS cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 48 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 49 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 50 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 137 51 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 1 Given give VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 2 that that DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 3 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 4 group group NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 5 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 6 particularly particularly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 7 socially socially RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 8 active active JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 10 one one PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 11 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 12 speculate speculate VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 13 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 14 infections infection NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 15 via via IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 16 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 17 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 18 group group NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 19 may may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 20 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 21 played play VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 22 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 23 key key JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 24 role role NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 25 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 27 spread spread NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 28 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 29 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 30 across across IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 31 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 32 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 33 even even RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 34 though though IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 35 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 36 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 37 ended end VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 38 up up RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 39 almost almost RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 40 completely completely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 41 unreported unreported JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 138 42 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 1 There there EX cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 2 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 3 however however RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 4 some some DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 5 limitations limitation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 6 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 7 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 8 analysis analysis NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 139 9 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 1 While while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 2 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 3 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 4 's 's POS cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 5 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 6 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 7 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 8 clearly clearly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 9 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 10 comprehensive comprehensive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 11 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 13 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 14 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 15 clear clear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 16 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 18 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 19 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 20 completely completely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 21 unbiased unbiased JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 140 22 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 2 particular particular JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 5 low low JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 6 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 8 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 9 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 11 10 10 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 12 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 13 19 19 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 14 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 15 bin bin NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 16 compared compare VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 17 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 19 20 20 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 20 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 21 29 29 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 22 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 23 bin bin NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 24 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 25 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 26 explained explain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 27 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 28 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 29 radical radical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 30 difference difference NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 31 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 32 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 33 true true JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 34 proportion proportion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 35 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 36 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 37 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 38 those those DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 39 two two CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 40 age age NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 41 groups group NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 42 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 43 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 44 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 45 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 46 lower low JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 47 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 48 among among IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 49 younger young JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 50 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 51 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 52 they -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 53 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 54 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 55 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 56 considered consider VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 57 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 58 very very RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 59 low low JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 60 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 61 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 62 complications complication NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 63 and/or and/or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 64 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 65 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 66 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 67 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 141 68 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 2 information information NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 3 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 4 does do VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 5 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 6 allow allow VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 7 us -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 8 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 9 discriminate discriminate VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 10 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 11 those those DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 12 explanations explanation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 142 13 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 1 A a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 2 key key JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 3 assumption assumption NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 6 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 7 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 8 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 9 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 10 infections infection NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 11 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 12 caused cause VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 13 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 14 contamination contamination NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 15 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 16 currently currently RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 17 reported report VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 18 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 19 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 21 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 22 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 23 modeling modeling NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 24 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 25 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 26 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 27 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 28 observed observed JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 29 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 30 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 31 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 32 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 33 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 34 data data NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 35 exists exist VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 143 36 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 1 However however RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 3 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 4 practice practice NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 6 many many JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 9 newly newly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 10 diagnosed diagnose VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 11 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 12 have have VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 13 been be VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 14 infected infect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 15 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 17 majority majority NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 19 unreported unreported JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 20 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 21 people people NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 144 22 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 2 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 3 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 4 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 5 infer infer VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 6 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 7 higher high JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 8 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 9 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 10 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 11 compensate compensate VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 12 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 14 underestimated underestimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 15 pool pool NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 17 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 18 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 145 19 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 2 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 3 explain explain VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 5 seemingly seemingly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 6 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 7 values value NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 8 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 9 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 10 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 11 estimates estimate NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 12 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 13 Spain Spain NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 14 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 15 instance instance NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 146 16 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 3 every every DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 4 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 5 adopted adopt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 6 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 7 own own JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 8 specific specific JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 9 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 10 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 11 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 12 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 13 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 14 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 15 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 17 resulting result VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 18 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 19 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 20 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 22 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 23 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 24 coming come VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 25 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 26 different different JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 27 countries country NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 147 28 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 1 For for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 2 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 4 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 5 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 6 opted opt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 7 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 8 blanket blanket NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 9 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 11 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 12 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 13 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 14 selective selective JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 15 quarantine quarantine NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 18 positive positive JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 19 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 21 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 22 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 23 focused focus VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 24 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 25 testing test VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 26 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 27 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 28 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 29 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 30 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 31 subjects subject NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 32 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 33 generalized generalized JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 34 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 35 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 36 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 37 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 38 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 39 reduce reduce VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 40 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 41 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 42 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 43 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 44 acting act VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 45 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 46 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 47 frequency frequency NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 48 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 49 social social JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 50 contacts contact NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 148 51 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 1 Even even RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 2 within within IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 4 same same JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 5 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 6 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 8 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 9 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 10 changed change VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 11 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 12 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 13 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 14 some some DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 15 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 16 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 17 leaving leave VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 18 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 19 trace trace NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 22 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 149 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 1 For for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 2 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 5 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 7 daily daily JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 8 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 9 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 10 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 11 China China NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 12 presents present VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 13 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 14 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 15 spike spike NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 17 14,108 14,108 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 18 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 19 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 21 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 22 single single JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 23 day day NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 25 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 26 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 27 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 28 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 30 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 31 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 32 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 33 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 34 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 36 reporting reporting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 37 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 38 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 39 since since IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 40 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 41 clinically clinically RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 42 diagnosed diagnose VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 43 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 44 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 45 started start VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 46 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 47 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 48 included include VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 49 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 50 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 51 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 52 count count VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 53 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 54 alongside alongside IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 55 laboratory laboratory NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 56 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 150 57 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 1 This this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 2 measure measure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 3 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 4 probably probably RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 5 necessary necessary JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 6 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 7 overcome overcome VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 9 saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 10 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 12 maximum maximum JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 13 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 14 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 15 tests test NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 16 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 17 could could MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 18 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 19 performed perform VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 20 every every DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 21 day day NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 22 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 23 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 24 caused cause VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 26 sudden sudden JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 27 inclusion inclusion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 28 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 29 previous previous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 30 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 31 suspect suspect JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 32 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 33 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 34 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 35 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 36 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 37 count count NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 151 38 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 3 Italy Italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 4 opted opt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 5 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 6 testing test VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 7 only only RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 8 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 9 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 10 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 11 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 12 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 13 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 14 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 15 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 16 February February NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 17 26 26 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 19 2020 2020 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 20 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 22 15 15 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 152 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 153 1 Limitations limitation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 153 2 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 153 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 153 4 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 153 5 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 154 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 154 2 Suppl Suppl NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 154 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 1 Material material NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 3 discuss discuss VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 4 some some DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 5 minor minor JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 6 limitations limitation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 8 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 9 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 155 10 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 1 One one CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 2 aspect aspect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 4 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 5 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 6 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 7 still still RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 8 unclear unclear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 9 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 10 whether whether IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 11 presymptomatic presymptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 12 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 14 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 15 at at RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 16 least least JJS cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 17 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 18 - - SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 19 3 3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 20 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 23 incubation incubation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 24 period period NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 26 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 27 likely likely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 28 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 29 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 30 contagious contagious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 31 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 32 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 33 degree degree NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 34 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 35 infectivity infectivity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 36 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 37 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 38 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 39 yet yet RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 40 well well RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 41 characterized characterize VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 156 42 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 2 SEIR seir NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 3 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 4 does do VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 5 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 6 account account VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 7 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 8 these these DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 9 effects effect NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 10 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 12 high high JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 13 value value NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 14 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 15 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 16 obtained obtain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 17 might might NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 18 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 19 part part NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 20 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 21 caused cause VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 22 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 24 need need NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 25 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 26 account account VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 27 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 28 those those DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 29 missing miss VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 30 contagion contagion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 31 events event NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 157 32 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 4 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 5 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 6 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 7 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 8 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 9 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 10 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 11 underestimated underestimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 12 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 13 testing testing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 14 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 15 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 16 some some DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 17 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 18 being be VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 19 focused focus VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 20 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 21 most most JJS cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 22 severe severe JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 23 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 25 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 26 similarly similarly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 27 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 28 lead lead VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 29 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 30 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 31 inflation inflation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 32 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 33 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 34 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 35 R R NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 36 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 158 37 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 2 parameter parameter NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 3 γ γ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 4 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 5 set set VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 6 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 7 each each DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 8 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 9 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 10 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 11 prior prior JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 12 knowledge knowledge NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 13 obtained obtain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 14 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 15 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 16 literature literature NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 17 rather rather RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 18 than than IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 19 estimated estimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 20 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 22 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 159 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 2 rationale rationale NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 3 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 4 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 5 approach approach NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 6 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 7 that that DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 8 parameter parameter NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 9 estimation estimation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 10 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 11 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 12 single single JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 13 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 14 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 15 series series NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 17 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 18 autonomous autonomous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 19 response response NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 20 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 21 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 22 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 23 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 24 varying vary VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 25 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 26 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 27 inherently inherently RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 28 challenging challenging JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 160 29 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 2 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 3 chose choose VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 4 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 5 use use VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 7 information information NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 8 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 9 carry carry VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 10 out out RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 11 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 12 inference inference NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 13 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 14 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 15 piecewise piecewise JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 16 stationary stationary JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 17 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 18 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 19 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 20 single single JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 21 parameter parameter NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 22 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 23 i i PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 161 24 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 1 More more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 2 sophisticated sophisticated JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 3 models model NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 5 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 6 more more JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 7 patient patient JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 8 compartments compartment NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 10 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 11 better well RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 12 capture capture VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 13 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 14 different different JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 15 effects effect NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 16 described describe VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 17 before before RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 19 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 20 such such JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 21 models model NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 22 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 23 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 24 significantly significantly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 25 more more RBR cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 26 free free JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 27 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 28 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 29 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 30 means mean VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 31 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 32 those those DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 33 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 34 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 35 simply simply RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 36 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 37 unidentifiable unidentifiable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 38 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 39 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 40 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 41 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 42 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 43 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 44 overfitting overfitting NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 45 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 46 likely likely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 162 47 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 1 About about IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 2 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 3 flattening flatten VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 5 curve curve NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 6 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 163 7 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 1 Despite despite IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 2 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 3 limitations limitation NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 6 models model NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 7 show show VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 8 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 10 idea idea NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 12 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 13 flattening flatten VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 15 curve curve NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 16 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 18 i.e. i.e. FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 20 reducing reduce VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 22 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 23 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 27 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 28 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 29 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 30 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 31 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 32 allow allow VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 33 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 34 gradual gradual JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 35 build build NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 36 up up IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 37 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 38 natural natural JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 39 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 40 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 41 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 42 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 44 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 45 likely likely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 46 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 47 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 48 unfeasible unfeasible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 164 49 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 1 Any any DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 2 significant significant JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 3 reduction reduction NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 5 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 6 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 7 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 8 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 9 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 10 bring bring VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 12 extremely extremely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 13 close close JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 14 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 15 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 16 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 17 overwhelm overwhelm VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 19 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 20 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 21 because because IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 23 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 24 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 25 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 27 height height NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 28 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 31 peak peak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 32 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 33 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 34 immunologically immunologically RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 35 naïve naïve JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 36 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 37 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 38 simply simply RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 39 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 40 different different JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 41 scales scale NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 43 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 44 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 45 SIR SIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 46 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 47 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 48 proportion proportion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 49 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 50 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 51 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 52 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 53 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 54 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 55 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 56 peak peak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 57 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 58 given give VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 59 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 60 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 61 − − CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 165 62 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 1 /R /R NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 2 0 0 NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 3 − − NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 4 ln(R ln(r CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 5 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 7 /R /R . cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 8 0 0 NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 166 9 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 1 For for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 2 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 4 30 30 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 5 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 6 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 8 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 9 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 11 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 14 peak peak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 15 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 16 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 17 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 18 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 19 3 3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 20 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 21 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 23 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 24 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 25 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 26 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 27 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 28 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 29 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 30 15.9 15.9 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 31 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 32 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 33 100,000 100,000 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 34 inhabitants inhabitant NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 36 8) 8) NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 167 38 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 1 Even even RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 2 if if IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 5 could could MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 6 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 7 controlled control VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 8 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 9 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 10 fixed fix VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 11 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 12 corresponding correspond VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 13 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 14 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 15 heavy heavy JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 16 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 17 non non JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 18 - - JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 19 overloading overloading JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 20 load load NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 23 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 24 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 25 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 26 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 27 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 28 needed need VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 29 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 30 build build VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 31 herd herd NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 32 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 33 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 34 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 35 measured measure VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 36 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 37 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 168 38 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 1 As as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 2 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 3 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 5 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 6 estimation estimation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 7 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 8 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 9 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 10 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 11 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 12 permanent permanent JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 13 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 14 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 16 1,000 1,000 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 17 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 18 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 19 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 20 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 22 compared compare VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 23 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 24 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 25 pre pre JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 26 - - JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 27 existing existing JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 28 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 29 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 30 1,750 1,750 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 32 8) 8) NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 33 beds bed NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 34 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 35 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 36 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 37 mean mean VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 38 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 39 major major JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 40 continuing continue VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 41 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 42 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 43 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 44 hospital hospital NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 45 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 46 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 47 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 48 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 49 need need NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 50 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 51 maintain maintain VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 52 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 53 capacity capacity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 54 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 55 several several JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 56 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 57 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 58 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 59 assuming assume VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 60 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 61 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 62 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 63 stay stay NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 64 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 65 10 10 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 66 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 67 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 68 6 6 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 69 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 70 20 20 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 71 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 72 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 73 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 74 assuming assume VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 75 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 76 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 77 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 78 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 79 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 80 affected affect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 81 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 82 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 83 general general JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 84 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 85 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 86 eventually eventually RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 87 require require VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 88 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 89 care care NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 90 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 91 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 92 mean mean VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 93 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 94 100 100 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 95 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 96 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 97 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 98 ad ad NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 99 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 100 mitted mitte VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 101 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 102 ICU ICU NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 103 care care NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 104 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 105 day day NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 106 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 107 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 108 5,000 5,000 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 109 individuals individual NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 110 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 111 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 112 general general JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 113 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 114 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 115 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 116 infected infect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 117 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 118 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 119 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 120 each each DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 121 day day NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 169 122 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 1 Reaching reach VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 2 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 3 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 4 where where WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 5 50 50 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 6 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 9 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 12 about about RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 13 11 11 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 14 million million CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 15 people people NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 17 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 18 achieved achieve VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 19 natural natural JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 20 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 21 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 22 require require VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 23 1,100 1,100 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 24 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 25 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 26 3 3 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 27 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 170 28 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 1 Given give VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 2 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 4 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 5 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 7 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 8 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 9 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 10 relatively relatively RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 11 short short RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 12 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 13 lived live VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 15 around around RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 16 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 17 years year NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 18 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 19 SARS SARS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 21 21 21 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 25 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 26 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 27 simply simply RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 28 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 29 next next JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 30 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 31 impossible impossible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 32 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 33 achieve achieve VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 34 herd herd NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 35 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 36 without without IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 37 overwhelming overwhelm VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 38 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 39 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 40 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 171 41 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 2 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 3 such such PDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 4 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 5 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 6 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 7 require require VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 8 maintaining maintain VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 10 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 12 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 13 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 15 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 16 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 17 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 18 tightly tightly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 19 controlled control VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 20 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 21 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 22 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 23 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 24 being be VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 25 maintained maintain VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 26 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 27 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 28 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 29 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 172 30 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 1 Whenever whenever WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 2 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 3 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 4 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 5 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 6 above above IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 7 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 10 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 11 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 12 flare flare VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 13 up up RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 15 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 16 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 17 quickly quickly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 18 overload overload VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 19 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 20 healthcare healthcare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 21 system system NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 22 maintained maintain VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 23 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 24 saturation saturation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 173 25 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 1 When when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 2 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 3 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 4 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 5 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 6 below below IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 7 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 8 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 10 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 11 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 12 start start VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 13 vanishing vanish VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 15 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 16 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 17 extend extend VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 18 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 19 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 20 needed need VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 21 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 22 build build VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 23 herd herd NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 24 immunity immunity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 174 25 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 1 Given give VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 2 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 4 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 5 completely completely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 6 unclear unclear JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 7 what what WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 9 precise precise JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 10 impact impact NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 12 any any DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 13 containment containment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 14 measure measure NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 15 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 16 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 17 R R NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 18 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 20 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 21 strategy strategy NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 22 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 23 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 24 lifting lift VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 25 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 26 reimposing reimpose VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 27 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 28 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 29 switch switch VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 30 between between IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 31 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 32 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 33 slightly slightly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 34 below below IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 35 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 36 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 37 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 38 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 39 slightly slightly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 40 above above IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 41 1 1 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 42 does do VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 43 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 44 appear appear VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 45 realistic realistic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 175 46 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 1 If if IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 2 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 3 treatment treatment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 4 became become VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 5 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 6 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 7 would would MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 8 greatly greatly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 9 diminish diminish VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 10 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 11 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 12 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 13 complications complication NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 15 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 16 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 17 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 18 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 19 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 20 factor factor NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 21 10 10 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 23 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 24 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 25 if if IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 26 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 27 turns turn VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 28 out out RP cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 29 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 30 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 31 proportion proportion NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 32 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 33 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 34 general general JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 35 population population NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 36 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 37 develops develop VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 38 severe severe JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 39 complications complication NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 40 when when WRB cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 41 infected infect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 42 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 43 SARS SARS NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 44 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 45 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 46 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 47 much much RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 48 lower low JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 49 than than IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 50 2 2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 51 % % NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 52 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 53 it -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 54 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 55 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 56 possible possible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 57 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 58 revisit revisit VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 59 strategies strategy NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 60 based base VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 61 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 62 " " `` cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 63 flattening flatten VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 64 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 65 curve curve NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 66 " " '' cord-336714-brurrmi4 176 67 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 3 absence absence NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 5 such such PDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 6 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 7 silver silver JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 8 bullet bullet NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 9 treatment treatment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 12 only only JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 13 plausible plausible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 14 option option NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 15 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 17 moment moment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 18 seems seem VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 19 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 20 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 21 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 22 immediate immediate JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 23 quashing quashing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 25 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 27 together together RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 28 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 30 development development NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 31 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 32 strategies strategy NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 33 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 34 try try VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 35 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 36 contain contain VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 37 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 38 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 39 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 40 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 41 minimal minimal JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 42 level level NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 43 driven drive VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 44 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 45 imported import VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 46 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 47 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 48 while while IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 49 waiting wait VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 50 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 51 greatly greatly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 52 improved improve VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 53 treatments treatment NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 54 or or CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 55 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 56 vaccine vaccine NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 177 57 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 2 such such JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 3 strategies strategy NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 5 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 6 currently currently RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 7 deployed deploy VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 8 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 9 South South NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 10 Korea Korea NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 11 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 12 Hong Hong NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 13 Kong Kong NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 14 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 15 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 16 Singapore Singapore NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 17 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 18 example example NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 20 patients patient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 21 only only RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 22 arise arise VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 23 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 24 imported import VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 25 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 26 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 27 small small JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 28 local local JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 29 clusters cluster NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 30 that that WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 31 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 32 rapidly rapidly RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 33 quashed quash VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 178 34 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 2 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 3 likely likely JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 4 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 5 such such JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 6 strategies strategy NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 7 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 8 sometimes sometimes RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 9 fail fail VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 10 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 11 insufficiently insufficiently RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 12 prepared prepared JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 13 populations population NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 14 leading lead VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 15 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 17 reimposing reimposing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 18 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 19 heavy heavy JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 20 quarantine quarantine NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 21 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 22 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 24 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 25 needed need VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 26 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 27 quash quash VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 28 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 29 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 31 flare flare NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 179 32 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 2 seems seem VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 3 advisable advisable JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 4 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 5 reimpose reimpose VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 6 strict strict JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 7 quarantine quarantine NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 8 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 9 as as RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 10 soon soon RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 11 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 12 uncontrolled uncontrolled JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 13 local local JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 14 circulation circulation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 15 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 16 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 17 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 18 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 19 suspected suspect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 180 20 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 181 1 Data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 181 2 collection collection NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 181 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 2 collected collect VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 3 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 4 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 5 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 6 official official JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 7 sources source NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 8 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 10 list list VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 11 them -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 12 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 13 Supplementary Supplementary NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 14 Material Material NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 182 15 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 183 1 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 183 2 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 183 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 2 SEIR seir NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 4 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 6 Exposed expose VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 7 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 8 Infected Infected NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 9 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 10 Recovered recover VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 12 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 13 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 14 widely widely RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 15 used use VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 16 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 17 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 18 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 20 description description NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 21 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 22 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 23 behavior behavior NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 24 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 26 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 27 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 184 28 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 2 provide provide VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 4 full full JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 5 details detail NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 6 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 7 Suppl Suppl NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 185 8 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 186 1 Material material NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 186 2 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 4 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 5 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 6 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 7 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 8 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 9 responsible responsible JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 10 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 11 tuning tune VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 12 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 13 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 14 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 15 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 16 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 17 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 18 δ δ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 20 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 21 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 22 γ γ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 187 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 1 δ δ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 2 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 3 can can MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 4 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 5 interpreted interpret VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 6 as as IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 7 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 8 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 9 incubation incubation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 10 period period NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 12 i.e. i.e. FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 13 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 15 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 16 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 17 spent spend VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 18 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 19 pool pool NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 20 E e NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 21 before before IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 22 becoming become VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 23 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 24 I i NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 188 26 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 1 β β NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 2 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 3 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 5 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 6 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 8 infections infection NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 9 an an DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 11 individual individual NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 12 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 13 cause cause VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 14 per per IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 15 unit unit NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 17 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 18 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 19 γ γ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 20 −1 −1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 21 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 22 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 24 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 25 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 26 necessary necessary JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 27 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 28 recover recover VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 29 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 30 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 31 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 33 i.e. i.e. FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 34 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 35 going go VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 36 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 37 I -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 38 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 39 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 189 41 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 2 average average JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 3 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 5 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 6 infections infection NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 7 arising arise VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 8 from from IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 9 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 10 single single JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 12 person person NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 13 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 14 then then RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 15 R r NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 16 0 0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 190 17 = = NFP cord-336714-brurrmi4 191 1 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 191 2 γ γ NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 191 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 3 study study NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 5 used use VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 6 δ δ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 7 −1 −1 NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 8 = = SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 9 5.2 5.2 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 10 days day NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 12 12 12 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 14 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 16 adapted adapt VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 17 γ γ NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 18 to to IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 20 estimated estimate VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 21 value value NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 22 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 23 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 24 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 25 under under IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 26 scrutiny scrutiny NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 28 see see VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 29 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 30 corresponding correspond VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 31 country country NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 32 section section NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 33 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 34 Results result NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 192 36 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 2 consider consider VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 3 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 4 those those DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 6 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 7 constant constant JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 8 over over IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 9 time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 11 before before IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 12 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 13 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 14 lockdowns lockdown NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 193 15 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 2 effect effect NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 4 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 5 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 6 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 7 then then RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 8 modelled model VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 9 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 10 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 11 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 12 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 13 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 194 14 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 2 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 3 work work NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 4 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 6 considered consider VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 7 that that IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 8 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 9 lockdown lockdown NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 10 enforcement enforcement NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 11 resulted result VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 12 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 13 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 14 discrete discrete JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 15 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 16 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 17 change change NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 18 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 19 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 195 20 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 1 In in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 2 practice practice NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 3 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 4 however however RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 5 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 7 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 8 might may MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 9 have have VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 10 changed change VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 11 only only RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 12 progressively progressively RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 13 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 14 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 15 adoption adoption NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 16 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 17 confinement confinement NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 18 measures measure NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 19 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 20 but but CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 21 modeling model VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 22 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 23 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 24 require require VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 25 more more JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 26 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 27 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 28 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 29 thus thus RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 30 also also RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 31 more more JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 32 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 33 higher high JJR cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 34 quality quality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 35 data datum NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 36 will will MD cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 37 be be VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 38 recommended recommend VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 39 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 40 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 41 inference inference NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 196 42 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 2 inferred infer VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 3 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 4 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 6 during during IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 7 each each DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 8 period period NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 9 by by IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 10 fitting fit VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 11 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 12 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 13 number number NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 14 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 15 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 16 C(t C(t VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 18 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 19 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 21 Metropolis Metropolis NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 22 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 23 Hastings Hastings NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 197 25 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 2 use use VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 3 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 5 likelihood likelihood NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 6 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 7 uniform uniform JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 8 priors prior NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 9 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 10 β β NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 198 11 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 2 details detail NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 5 model model NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 6 are be VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 7 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 9 Suppl Suppl NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 199 10 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 200 1 Material material NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 200 2 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 200 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 201 1 CC CC NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 201 2 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 201 3 BY BY NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 201 4 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 201 5 NC NC NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 202 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 202 2 International international JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 202 3 license license NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 2 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 3 made make VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 4 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 5 under under IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 6 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 7 author author NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 8 / / SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 9 funder funder NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 11 who who WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 12 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 13 granted grant VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 15 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 16 license license NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 17 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 18 display display VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 20 preprint preprint NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 21 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 203 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 1 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 4 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 5 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 6 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 7 peer peer NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 8 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 9 reviewed review VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 204 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 2 copyright copyright NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 3 holder holder NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 4 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 5 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 6 preprint preprint NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 205 7 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 206 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20046375 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20046375 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 206 2 doi doi NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 206 3 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 207 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 207 2 preprint preprint NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 207 3 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 208 1 CC CC NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 208 2 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 208 3 BY BY NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 208 4 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 208 5 NC NC NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 209 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 209 2 International international JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 209 3 license license NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 2 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 3 made make VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 4 available available JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 5 under under IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 6 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 7 author author NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 8 / / SYM cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 9 funder funder NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 10 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 11 who who WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 12 has have VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 13 granted grant VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 15 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 16 license license NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 17 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 18 display display VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 19 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 20 preprint preprint NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 21 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 210 23 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 1 is be VBZ cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 4 which which WDT cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 5 was be VBD cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 6 not not RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 7 peer peer NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 8 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 9 reviewed review VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 211 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 2 copyright copyright NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 3 holder holder NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 4 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 5 this this DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 6 preprint preprint NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 212 7 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 213 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20046375 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20046375 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 213 2 doi doi NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 213 3 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 2 preprint preprint NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 3 Time Time NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 4 to to TO cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 5 use use VB cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 6 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 7 p p NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 8 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 9 word word NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 214 10 ? ? . cord-336714-brurrmi4 215 1 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 215 2 enter enter VBP cord-336714-brurrmi4 215 3 dangerous dangerous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 215 4 new new JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 215 5 phase phase NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 1 Who who WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 2 director director NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 3 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 4 general general NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 5 's 's POS cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 6 opening opening NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 7 remarks remark NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 8 at at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 9 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 10 media medium NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 11 briefing briefing NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 12 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 13 covid-19 covid-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 216 14 -11 -11 XX cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 2 proximal proximal JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 3 origin origin NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 5 sars sars NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 6 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 7 cov-2 cov-2 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 8 European European NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 9 Centre Centre NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 10 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 11 Disease Disease NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 12 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 13 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 14 Control Control NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 15 Clinical Clinical NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 16 presentation presentation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 17 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 18 virological virological JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 19 assessment assessment NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 20 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 21 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 22 cases case NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 23 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 24 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 25 disease disease NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 26 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 27 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 28 italy italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 217 29 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 218 1 what what WP cord-336714-brurrmi4 218 2 next next JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 218 3 ? ? . cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 2 Lancet Lancet NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 3 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 4 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 5 italy italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 6 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 7 momentous momentous JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 8 decisions decision NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 9 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 10 many many JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 11 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 219 12 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 220 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 220 2 Lancet Lancet NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 220 3 Global Global NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 220 4 Health Health NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 2 variability variability NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 4 critical critical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 5 care care NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 6 bed bed NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 7 numbers number NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 8 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 221 9 europe europe NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 1 At at IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 2 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 3 epicenter epicenter NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 5 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 6 covid-19 covid-19 JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 8 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 9 humanitarian humanitarian JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 10 crises crisis NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 11 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 12 italy italy NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 13 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 14 Changing change VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 15 perspectives perspective NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 16 on on IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 17 preparation preparation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 18 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 19 mitigation mitigation NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 20 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 21 potential potential NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 22 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 23 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 24 strain strain NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 25 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 26 influenza influenza NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 27 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 29 h1n1 h1n1 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 31 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 32 early early JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 33 findings finding NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 222 34 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 1 science science NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 2 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 4 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 5 transmission transmission NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 6 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 7 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 8 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 9 2019-ncov 2019-ncov CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 10 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 11 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 12 implication implication NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 13 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 14 public public JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 15 health health NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 16 interventions intervention NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 17 Early early JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 18 transmission transmission NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 19 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 20 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 21 wuhan wuhan NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 22 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 23 china china NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 24 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 25 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 26 novel novel JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 27 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 28 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 29 infected infect VBN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 30 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 31 Nowcasting Nowcasting NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 32 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 33 forecasting forecast VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 34 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 35 potential potential JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 36 domestic domestic JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 37 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 38 international international JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 39 spread spread NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 40 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 41 the the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 42 2019-ncov 2019-ncov CD cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 43 outbreak outbreak NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 44 originating originate VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 45 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 46 wuhan wuhan NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 47 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 48 china china NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 49 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 50 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 51 modelling modelling NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 52 study study NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 53 Time time NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 54 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 55 varying vary VBG cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 56 transmission transmission NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 57 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 58 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 59 novel novel JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 60 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 61 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 62 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 63 china china NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 223 64 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 224 1 bioRxiv biorxiv RB cord-336714-brurrmi4 225 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 225 2 mathematics mathematic NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 225 3 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 226 1 infectious infectious JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 226 2 diseases disease NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 226 3 Report Report NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 227 1 sulle sulle NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 227 2 caratteristiche caratteristiche FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 227 3 dei dei NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 227 4 pazienti pazienti NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 227 5 deceduti deceduti NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 227 6 positivi positivi NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 1 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 2 covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 3 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 4 italia italia NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 5 Parere Parere NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 6 del del NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 7 consiglio consiglio NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 228 8 superiore superiore NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 229 1 di di NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 229 2 sanità sanità NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 229 3 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 230 1 definizione definizione NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 230 2 di di FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 230 3 paziente paziente NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 231 1 guarito guarito NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 231 2 da da NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 231 3 covid-19 covid-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 231 4 e e NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 231 5 di di FW cord-336714-brurrmi4 231 6 paziente paziente NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 232 1 che che NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 232 2 ha ha UH cord-336714-brurrmi4 232 3 eliminato eliminato NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 232 4 il il NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 232 5 virus virus NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 1 sars sars NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 2 - - HYPH cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 3 cov-2 cov-2 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 4 Clinical clinical JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 5 course course NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 6 and and CC cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 7 risk risk NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 8 factors factor NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 9 for for IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 10 mortality mortality NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 11 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 12 adult adult NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 13 inpatients inpatient NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 14 with with IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 15 covid-19 covid-19 NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 16 in in IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 17 wuhan wuhan NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 18 , , , cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 19 china china NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 20 : : : cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 21 a a DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 22 retrospective retrospective JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 23 cohort cohort NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 24 study study NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 233 25 . . . cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 1 The the DT cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 2 Lancet Lancet NNP cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 3 Duration duration NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 4 of of IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 5 antibody antibody NN cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 6 responses response NNS cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 7 after after IN cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 8 severe severe JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 9 acute acute JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 10 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-336714-brurrmi4 234 11 syndrome syndrome NN