id sid tid token lemma pos cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 1 1 key key NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 1 2 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 1 cord-263248 cord-263248 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 2 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 3 8y1u0h6y 8y1u0h6y CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 4 authors author NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 5 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 6 Ediev Ediev NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 8 D. D. NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 9 M. M. NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 10 title title NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 11 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 12 Population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 13 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 14 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 15 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 16 critical critical JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 17 factor factor NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 18 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 20 kinetics kinetic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 21 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 23 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 24 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 2 25 date date NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 1 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 2 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 3 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 4 06 06 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 5 - - SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 6 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 7 journal journal NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 3 8 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 4 1 nan nan NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 4 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 4 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 5 1 10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 5 2 sha sha NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 5 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 6 1 87f16a6fdbeaf3094d7c4316ab5be993c6dd70f2 87f16a6fdbeaf3094d7c4316ab5be993c6dd70f2 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 6 2 doc_id doc_id CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 6 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 6 4 263248 263248 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 6 5 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 6 6 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 7 1 8y1u0h6y 8y1u0h6y CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 2 novel novel JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 3 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 4 pandemic pandemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 5 generates generate VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 6 extensive extensive JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 7 attention attention NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 8 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 9 political political JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 10 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 11 scholarly scholarly JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 12 domains domain NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 8 13 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 1 Its -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 2 potentially potentially RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 3 lasting lasting JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 4 prospects prospect NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 6 economic economic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 7 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 8 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 9 consequences consequence NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 10 call call VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 11 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 12 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 13 better well JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 14 understanding understanding NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 16 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 17 nature nature NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 9 18 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 2 widespread widespread JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 3 expectations expectation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 4 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 5 large large JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 6 portions portion NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 9 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 10 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 11 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 12 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 13 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 14 vaccinated vaccinate VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 15 before before IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 16 containing contain VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 18 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 19 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 20 rely rely VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 21 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 22 assuming assume VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 23 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 24 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 25 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 10 26 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 2 reality reality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 4 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 5 differ differ VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 6 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 8 propensity propensity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 9 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 10 catch catch VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 12 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 13 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 14 spread spread VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 16 further further RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 11 17 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 1 Here here RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 4 incorporate incorporate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 5 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 6 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 7 into into IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 9 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 10 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 11 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 12 SIR SIR NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 13 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 14 model model NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 15 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 16 show show VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 18 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 19 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 20 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 21 pandemic pandemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 22 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 23 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 24 much much RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 25 lower low JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 26 than than IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 27 usually usually RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 28 assumed assume VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 12 29 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 2 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 3 indicate indicate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 5 crucial crucial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 6 role role NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 8 correctly correctly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 9 planning plan VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 10 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 11 interventions intervention NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 13 12 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 2 found find VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 3 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 4 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 5 efficient efficient JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 6 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 7 strategy strategy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 8 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 9 reduce reduce VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 11 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 12 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 16 as as RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 17 low low JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 18 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 19 several several JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 20 percents percent NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 21 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 22 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 23 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 24 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 14 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 1 That that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 2 level level NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 3 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 4 comparable comparable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 5 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 6 prevalences prevalence NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 7 found find VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 8 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 9 serological serological JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 10 surveys survey NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 15 11 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 2 expect expect VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 3 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 4 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 5 study study NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 6 will will MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 7 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 8 followed follow VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 9 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 10 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 11 extensive extensive JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 12 data data NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 13 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 14 driven drive VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 15 research research NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 16 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 17 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 18 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 19 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 20 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 21 populations population NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 16 22 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 1 Because because IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 2 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 4 novelty novelty NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 5 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 6 urgency urgency NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 9 situation situation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 11 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 12 models model NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 13 inform inform VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 14 decision decision NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 15 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 16 making make VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 17 1,7 1,7 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 18 - - SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 19 13 13 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 20 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 21 addressing address VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 23 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 24 pandemic pandemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 17 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 1 Those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 2 models model NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 3 indicate indicate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 4 high high JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 5 contagiousness contagiousness NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 8 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 9 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 10 raise raise VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 11 concerns concern NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 12 about about IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 14 majority majority NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 17 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 18 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 19 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 20 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 22 if if IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 23 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 24 vaccinated vaccinate VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 18 26 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 2 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 4 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 5 ܴ ܴ NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 9 at at IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 10 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 11 beginning beginning NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 12 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 13 estimated estimate VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 14 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 15 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 16 around around IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 17 3 3 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 18 9,14 9,14 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 19 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 20 16 16 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 21 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 22 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 23 implies imply VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 24 1 1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 25 െ െ NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 26 1 1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 19 27 ܴ ܴ NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 1 ⁄ ⁄ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 3 i.e. i.e. FW cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 4 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 5 about about RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 6 67 67 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 7 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 8 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 10 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 11 must must MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 12 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 13 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 14 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 15 vaccinated vaccinate VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 16 before before IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 18 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 19 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 20 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 21 controlled control VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 22 without without IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 23 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 24 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 20 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 1 This this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 2 conclusion conclusion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 3 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 4 affected affect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 5 mitigation mitigation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 6 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 7 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 8 many many JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 9 countries country NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 12 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 13 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 14 contributed contribute VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 16 expectations expectation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 18 recurrent recurrent JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 19 waves wave NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 20 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 21 23 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 1 Those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 2 models model NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 4 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 6 ignore ignore VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 7 varying vary VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 8 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 9 engagement engagement NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 12 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 13 awareness awareness NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 14 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 15 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 16 hygiene hygiene NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 17 preparedness preparedness NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 18 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 19 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 20 along along IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 21 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 22 other other JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 23 factors factor NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 24 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 25 contribute contribute VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 26 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 27 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 28 varying vary VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 29 propensity propensity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 30 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 31 contracting contract VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 32 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 33 disease disease NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 34 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 35 spreading spread VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 36 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 37 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 38 others other NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 22 39 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 1 Various various JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 2 reports report NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 3 suggest suggest VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 4 10 10 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 5 - - SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 6 20 20 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 7 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 8 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 9 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 10 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 11 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 12 responsible responsible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 13 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 14 80 80 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 15 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 16 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 18 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 19 transmissions transmission NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 20 [ [ -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 21 17 17 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 22 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 24 18 18 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 27 19 19 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 23 29 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 1 These these DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 2 findings finding NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 3 illuminate illuminate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 5 fact fact NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 6 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 7 while while IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 9 majority majority NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 10 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 11 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 12 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 13 barely barely RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 14 contribute contribute VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 17 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 18 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 20 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 21 thanks thank NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 22 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 23 either either CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 24 limited limit VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 25 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 26 engagement engagement NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 27 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 28 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 29 alertness alertness NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 30 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 31 better well JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 32 hygiene hygiene NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 33 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 34 few few JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 35 others other NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 36 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 37 become become VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 38 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 39 infecting infect VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 40 dozens dozen NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 41 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 42 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 24 43 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 1 An an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 2 essential essential JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 3 practical practical JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 4 conclusion conclusion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 5 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 6 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 7 conclusion conclusion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 8 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 9 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 10 call call NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 11 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 12 aim aim VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 14 mitigation mitigation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 15 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 16 at at IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 17 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 18 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 19 reduce reduce VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 20 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 21 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 22 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 23 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 25 average average JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 26 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 27 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 28 secondary secondary JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 29 infections infection NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 30 per per IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 31 one one CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 32 initial initial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 33 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 34 person person NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 36 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 37 contain contain VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 38 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 39 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 40 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 41 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 42 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 25 43 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 1 Another another DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 2 aspect aspect NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 3 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 5 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 7 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 9 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 10 demand demand VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 11 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 12 revise revise VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 13 that that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 14 conclusion conclusion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 15 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 16 readdress readdress VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 18 prospects prospect NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 19 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 20 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 21 pandemic pandemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 22 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 23 mitigation mitigation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 24 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 26 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 2 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 3 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 4 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 5 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 6 essential essential JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 7 player player NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 8 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 10 kinetics kinetic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 11 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 12 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 14 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 15 because because IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 16 when when WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 18 minority minority NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 19 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 20 contributes contribute VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 21 most most RBS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 22 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 23 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 24 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 25 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 26 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 27 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 28 contracts contract VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 29 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 30 disease disease NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 31 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 32 develops develop VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 33 immunity immunity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 34 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 35 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 36 outbreak outbreak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 37 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 38 abruptly abruptly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 39 come come VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 40 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 41 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 42 end end NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 43 before before IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 44 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 45 expected expect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 46 majority majority NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 47 gets get VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 48 affected affect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 27 49 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 1 Differential Differential NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 2 contagiousness contagiousness NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 3 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 4 matters matter VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 5 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 6 how how WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 7 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 8 manage manage VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 10 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 11 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 12 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 13 whether whether IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 14 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 15 assume assume VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 17 recurrent recurrent JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 18 waves wave NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 19 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 20 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 22 after after IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 23 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 24 lift lift NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 25 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 26 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 27 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 28 isolation isolation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 29 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 30 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 31 Autumn Autumn NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 32 cooling cool VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 28 33 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 3 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 4 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 5 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 6 shorten shorten VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 8 course course NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 9 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 11 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 13 because because IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 14 those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 15 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 16 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 17 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 18 engagement engagement NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 19 will will MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 20 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 21 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 23 first first JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 24 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 25 catch catch VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 26 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 27 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 29 28 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 2 Figure figure NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 3 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 5 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 6 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 7 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 9 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 10 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 11 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 12 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 13 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 14 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 15 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 16 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 18 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 19 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 20 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 30 21 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 2 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 3 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 4 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 5 certified certify VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 6 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 7 peer peer NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 8 review review NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 31 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 1 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 2 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 3 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 4 three three CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 8 could could MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 9 have have VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 10 been be VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 11 checked check VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 12 after after IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 13 67 67 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 14 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 17 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 18 gets get VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 19 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 32 20 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 2 reality reality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 4 that that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 5 threshold threshold NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 6 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 7 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 8 surpassed surpass VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 9 thanks thank NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 10 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 12 gained gain VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 13 momentum momentum NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 14 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 16 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 19 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 33 20 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 3 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 4 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 7 total total JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 8 numbers number NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 9 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 10 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 11 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 12 substantial substantial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 14 27.6 27.6 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 15 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 16 14.1 14.1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 17 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 18 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 19 respectively respectively RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 21 but but CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 22 much much RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 23 lower low JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 24 than than IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 25 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 26 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 27 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 28 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 34 29 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 2 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 3 levels level NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 4 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 6 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 7 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 8 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 9 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 10 much much RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 11 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 13 56.1 56.1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 14 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 16 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 18 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 19 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 20 than than IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 21 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 23 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 24 ones one NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 26 12.1 12.1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 27 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 28 5.8 5.8 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 29 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 35 31 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 1 Also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 2 note note VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 3 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 5 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 6 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 7 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 9 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 12 earlier early JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 13 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 15 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 16 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 36 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 1 An an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 2 intuition intuition NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 3 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 4 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 5 observation observation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 6 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 7 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 9 faster fast JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 10 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 12 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 13 recovery recovery NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 17 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 18 accelerates accelerate VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 20 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 21 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 22 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 23 early early JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 24 phase phase NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 25 while while IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 26 slowing slow VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 27 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 28 down down RP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 29 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 30 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 31 later later JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 32 phase phase NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 37 33 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 2 panes pane NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 3 b b NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 4 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 5 d d XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 8 present present VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 9 results result NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 10 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 11 three three CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 12 timing timing NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 13 options option NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 14 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 16 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 17 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 18 lasts last VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 19 over over IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 20 28 28 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 21 days day NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 22 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 23 reduces reduce VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 25 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 26 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 27 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 28 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 29 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 30 90 90 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 31 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 38 32 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 1 When when WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 2 started start VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 3 too too RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 4 early early RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 6 day day NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 7 30 30 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 9 pane pane NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 10 b b NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 14 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 15 leaves leave VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 16 too too RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 17 many many JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 18 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 19 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 20 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 22 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 23 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 24 facilitates facilitate VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 25 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 26 substantial substantial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 27 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 28 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 39 29 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 2 total total JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 3 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 4 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 5 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 6 nearly nearly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 8 same same JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 9 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 10 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 12 no no DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 13 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 14 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 15 variant variant NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 16 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 18 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 19 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 20 but but CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 21 considerably considerably RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 22 lower lower RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 23 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 25 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 26 populations population NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 40 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 1 With with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 2 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 3 better well JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 4 timing timing NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 10 long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 11 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 12 term term NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 13 costs cost NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 14 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 16 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 17 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 18 much much RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 19 lower low JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 41 20 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 2 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 3 presented present VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 4 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 5 pane pane NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 6 c c NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 8 starts start VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 9 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 10 day day NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 11 39 39 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 13 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 14 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 15 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 17 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 18 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 19 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 20 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 21 experiences experience NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 22 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 23 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 25 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 26 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 27 timing timing NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 28 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 29 no no DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 30 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 31 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 33 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 34 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 35 total total JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 36 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 37 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 38 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 39 minimal minimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 40 at at IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 41 4.9 4.9 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 42 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 42 44 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 1 That that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 2 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 4 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 6 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 7 yet yet RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 8 too too RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 9 early early JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 10 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 12 less less RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 13 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 14 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 15 where where WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 16 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 17 moderate moderate JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 18 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 20 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 21 develops develop VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 22 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 23 leads lead VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 24 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 25 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 26 total total NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 27 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 28 15.8 15.8 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 29 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 30 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 32 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 33 substantially substantially RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 34 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 35 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 36 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 37 compared compare VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 38 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 39 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 40 minimal minimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 41 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 42 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 43 11 11 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 44 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 45 associated associate VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 46 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 47 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 48 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 49 starting start VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 50 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 51 day day NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 52 44 44 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 43 54 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 3 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 4 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 7 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 8 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 9 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 10 even even RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 11 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 13 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 14 almost almost RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 15 everybody everybody NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 17 93.3 93.3 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 18 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 20 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 21 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 22 again again RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 23 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 24 gets get VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 25 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 44 26 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 1 Only only RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 2 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 3 later later JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 4 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 5 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 6 starts start VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 7 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 8 day day NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 9 55 55 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 11 pane pane NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 12 d d NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 14 produces produce VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 16 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 17 result result NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 18 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 20 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 21 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 23 68.8 68.8 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 24 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 25 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 45 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 1 While while IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 3 first first JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 4 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 8 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 10 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 11 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 12 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 13 earlier early JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 14 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 15 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 16 compressed compressed JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 17 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 18 compared compare VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 19 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 20 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 21 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 22 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 23 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 25 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 26 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 27 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 28 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 29 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 30 contrary contrary NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 31 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 32 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 33 later later RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 34 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 35 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 36 stretched stretch VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 37 out out RP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 46 38 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 1 Even even RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 2 if if IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 3 beneficial beneficial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 4 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 5 terms term NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 7 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 8 lower low JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 9 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 11 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 12 extended extended JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 13 small small JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 14 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 15 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 16 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 17 misguide misguide VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 19 policymaker policymaker NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 20 about about IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 22 long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 23 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 24 term term NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 25 efficiency efficiency NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 26 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 27 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 28 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 29 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 47 30 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 1 Heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 2 scenarios scenario NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 3 show show VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 4 much much RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 5 lower low JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 6 long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 7 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 8 term term NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 9 costs cost NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 10 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 12 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 13 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 14 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 15 levels level NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 16 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 18 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 19 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 20 compared compare VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 21 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 23 traditional traditional JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 24 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 25 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 48 26 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 1 If if IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 3 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 4 had have VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 5 been be VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 6 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 7 selective selective JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 9 better better RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 10 protecting protect VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 12 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 13 - - JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 14 spreading spread VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 15 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 16 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 17 those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 18 numbers number NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 19 could could MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 20 have have VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 21 been be VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 22 even even RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 23 smaller small JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 49 24 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 4 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 5 could could MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 7 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 8 principle principle NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 9 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 10 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 11 contained contain VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 12 after after IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 13 most most JJS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 14 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 16 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 17 were be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 18 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 20 bringing bring VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 21 total total JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 22 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 23 populations population NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 24 down down RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 25 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 26 about about IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 27 1 1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 50 28 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 51 1 5 5 LS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 51 2 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 52 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 52 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 52 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 52 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 52 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 52 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 53 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 53 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 53 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 53 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 53 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 53 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 54 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 2 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 3 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 4 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 5 certified certify VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 6 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 7 peer peer NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 8 review review NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 55 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 56 16 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 1 Expectations expectation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 2 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 3 about about RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 4 70 70 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 5 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 7 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 8 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 9 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 10 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 11 before before IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 12 containing contain VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 15 were be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 16 implicitly implicitly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 17 based base VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 18 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 19 assuming assume VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 20 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 21 homogeneity homogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 57 22 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 1 Contrary contrary JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 2 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 3 those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 4 expectations expectation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 7 show show VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 8 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 10 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 11 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 12 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 13 bring bring VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 14 that that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 15 threshold threshold NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 16 level level NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 17 down down RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 18 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 19 as as RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 20 few few JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 21 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 22 14 14 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 23 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 24 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 25 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 26 similar similar JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 27 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 28 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 29 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 58 30 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 1 Population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 2 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 5 appears appear VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 7 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 8 even even RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 9 outweigh outweigh VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 11 vaccination vaccination NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 12 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 13 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 14 importance importance NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 15 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 16 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 17 factor factor NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 18 checking check VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 20 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 21 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 23 disease disease NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 59 24 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 2 urgently urgently RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 3 need need VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 4 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 5 fully fully RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 6 understand understand VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 8 extent extent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 9 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 10 nature nature NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 11 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 12 how how WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 13 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 14 differ differ VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 15 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 16 susceptibility susceptibility NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 17 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 19 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 20 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 22 ability ability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 23 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 24 spread spread VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 25 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 26 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 27 appreciate appreciate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 28 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 29 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 30 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 31 decision decision NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 32 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 33 making making NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 60 34 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 3 long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 4 run run NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 7 lower low JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 8 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 9 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 10 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 11 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 12 means mean VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 13 fewer few JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 14 causalities causality NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 17 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 61 18 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 3 short short JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 4 run run NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 6 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 8 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 9 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 10 around around IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 12 world world NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 13 take take VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 15 capacity capacity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 16 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 18 healthcare healthcare NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 19 system system NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 20 into into IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 21 account account NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 22 too too RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 62 23 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 2 that that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 3 context context NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 4 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 6 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 7 notable notable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 8 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 9 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 63 10 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 64 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 64 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 64 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 64 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 64 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 64 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 65 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 65 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 65 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 65 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 65 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 65 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 66 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 67 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 1 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 2 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 3 reduces reduce VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 5 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 6 levels level NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 9 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 10 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 12 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 13 56 56 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 14 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 15 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 16 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 19 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 20 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 21 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 22 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 23 6 6 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 24 - - SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 25 12 12 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 26 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 68 28 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 1 Lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 3 when when WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 4 well well RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 5 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 6 scheduled schedule VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 8 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 9 capable capable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 10 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 11 substantially substantially RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 12 reducing reduce VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 14 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 17 outbreak outbreak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 69 18 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 2 timing timing NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 3 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 5 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 6 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 7 crucial crucial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 8 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 9 all all DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 10 scenarios scenario NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 70 11 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 1 When when WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 2 prematurely prematurely RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 3 implemented implement VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 4 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 6 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 7 leaves leave VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 8 too too RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 9 large large JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 10 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 11 portion portion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 12 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 14 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 16 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 18 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 19 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 20 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 21 results result VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 22 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 23 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 24 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 25 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 26 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 27 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 71 29 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 2 such such JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 3 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 4 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 7 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 8 gain gain VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 9 momentum momentum NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 10 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 11 eventually eventually RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 12 lead lead VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 13 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 14 nearly nearly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 16 same same JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 17 total total JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 18 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 19 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 20 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 21 persons person NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 22 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 23 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 25 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 26 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 27 no no DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 28 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 72 29 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 2 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 3 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 4 appears appear VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 5 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 6 stretch stretch VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 7 over over RP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 8 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 9 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 10 extended extended JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 11 period period NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 12 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 14 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 15 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 16 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 17 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 18 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 19 misguide misguide VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 20 policymakers policymaker NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 21 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 22 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 23 assessment assessment NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 24 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 26 efficiency efficiency NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 27 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 28 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 29 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 73 30 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 1 Too too RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 2 late late RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 3 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 4 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 6 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 8 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 9 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 10 inefficient inefficient JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 11 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 12 because because IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 14 allows allow VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 15 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 16 many many JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 17 avoidable avoidable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 18 infections infection NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 74 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 3 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 4 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 5 strategy strategy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 7 one one PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 8 should should MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 9 wait wait VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 10 until until IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 12 proportions proportion NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 14 fall fall NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 16 levels level NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 17 where where WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 19 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 20 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 21 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 22 turns turn VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 23 unity unity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 75 24 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 1 After after IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 2 reaching reach VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 3 that that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 4 threshold threshold NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 8 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 9 should should MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 10 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 11 implemented implement VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 12 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 13 maximal maximal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 14 possible possible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 15 strength strength NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 16 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 17 cool cool VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 18 off off RP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 21 ' ' `` cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 22 momentum momentum NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 23 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 24 halt halt VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 26 further further JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 27 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 28 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 29 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 30 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 76 31 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 1 To to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 2 design design VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 3 such such PDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 4 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 5 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 6 policy policy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 7 response response NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 9 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 12 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 13 mandatory mandatory JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 14 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 15 understand understand VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 17 kinetics kinetic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 18 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 21 well well RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 22 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 23 assess assess VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 25 threshold threshold NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 26 correctly correctly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 77 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 1 That that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 2 includes include VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 3 accounting account VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 6 role role NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 8 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 9 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 78 10 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 1 designing design VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 2 policy policy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 3 responses response NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 4 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 6 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 7 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 8 other other JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 9 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 79 10 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 2 results result NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 3 imply imply VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 4 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 6 should should MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 7 further further RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 8 extend extend VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 9 those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 10 models model NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 11 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 12 include include VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 13 different different JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 14 predispositions predisposition NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 15 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 16 catch catch VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 17 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 18 spread spread VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 20 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 80 21 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 1 With with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 2 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 3 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 4 strategy strategy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 7 total total JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 8 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 9 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 10 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 11 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 12 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 13 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 14 reduced reduce VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 16 as as RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 17 low low JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 18 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 19 five five CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 20 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 21 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 23 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 24 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 81 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 1 Notably notably RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 3 such such JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 4 level level NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 6 prevalence prevalence NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 7 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 8 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 10 same same JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 11 magnitude magnitude NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 12 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 13 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 14 found find VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 15 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 16 serological serological JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 17 surveys survey NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 18 6 6 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 82 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 83 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 83 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 83 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 83 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 83 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 83 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 84 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 84 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 84 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 84 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 84 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 84 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 85 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 86 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 87 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 87 2 doi doi XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 87 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 2 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 3 will will MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 4 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 5 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 6 less less RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 7 affected affect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 8 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 9 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 10 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 88 11 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 1 That that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 2 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 3 contribute contribute VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 4 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 6 selectivity selectivity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 9 first first JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 10 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 11 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 12 reduction reduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 13 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 15 eventual eventual JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 16 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 89 20 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 1 On on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 3 other other JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 4 hand hand NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 6 closing close VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 7 down down RP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 8 public public JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 9 workplaces workplace NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 11 introducing introduce VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 12 strict strict JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 13 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 14 distancing distancing NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 15 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 16 isolation isolation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 17 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 18 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 19 public public JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 20 hygiene hygiene NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 21 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 22 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 23 affect affect VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 24 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 26 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 27 while while IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 28 having have VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 29 limited limit VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 30 effect effect NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 31 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 32 if if IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 33 at at RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 34 all all RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 35 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 36 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 37 socially socially RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 38 less less RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 39 engaged engaged JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 40 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 41 initially initially RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 42 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 43 prepared prepared JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 44 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 90 45 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 1 That that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 2 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 3 form form VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 4 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 5 selectivity selectivity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 8 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 9 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 10 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 11 exaggerate exaggerate VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 12 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 13 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 14 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 91 17 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 1 Which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 2 scenarios scenario NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 3 develop develop VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 4 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 5 reality reality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 6 needs need VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 7 urgently urgently RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 8 being be VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 9 examined examine VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 10 while while IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 11 countries country NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 12 move move VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 13 into into IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 15 postlockdown postlockdown JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 16 phases phase NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 92 17 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 1 Long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 2 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 3 term term NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 4 effects effect NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 7 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 8 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 9 reported report VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 10 here here RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 11 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 12 call call VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 13 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 14 revisiting revisit VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 16 policy policy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 17 recommendations recommendation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 18 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 19 respect respect NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 20 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 22 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 93 23 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 2 usual usual JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 3 policy policy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 4 recommendation recommendation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 5 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 6 respect respect NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 7 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 9 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 10 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 11 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 12 maximize maximize VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 13 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 14 efficiency efficiency NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 15 among among IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 17 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 94 18 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 1 Yet yet CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 4 indicate indicate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 5 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 6 such such PDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 7 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 8 policy policy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 9 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 10 delay delay VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 11 but but CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 12 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 13 prevent prevent VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 15 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 16 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 20 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 21 spread spread VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 22 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 23 unnecessarily unnecessarily RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 24 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 26 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 27 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 28 into into IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 29 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 30 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 31 - - JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 32 spreaders spreaders JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 33 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 95 34 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 2 need need VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 3 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 4 address address VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 6 issue issue NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 7 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 8 designing design VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 9 social social JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 10 isolation isolation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 11 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 96 12 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 2 extent extent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 3 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 4 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 6 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 7 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 8 depend depend VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 9 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 10 many many JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 11 factors factor NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 12 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 13 need need VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 14 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 15 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 16 studied study VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 97 17 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 1 Those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 2 include include VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 3 demographic demographic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 4 factors factor NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 5 such such JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 6 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 7 age age NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 8 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 9 sex sex NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 11 kinship kinship NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 12 structures structure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 13 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 14 relations relation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 15 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 16 household household NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 17 sizes size NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 18 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 19 roles role NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 20 within within IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 21 them -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 98 22 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 1 Factors factor NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 2 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 3 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 4 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 5 include include VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 6 biological biological JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 7 predispositions predisposition NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 9 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 10 patterns pattern NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 12 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 13 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 14 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 15 turn turn NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 16 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 17 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 18 depend depend VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 19 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 20 demographic demographic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 21 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 22 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 23 such such JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 24 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 26 presence presence NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 27 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 28 persons person NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 29 vulnerable vulnerable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 30 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 31 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 32 disease disease NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 33 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 34 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 35 household household NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 36 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 37 kinship kinship NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 38 networks network NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 40 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 41 educational educational JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 42 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 43 occupational occupational JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 44 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 45 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 46 income income NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 47 differentials differential NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 48 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 49 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 50 others other NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 99 51 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 1 A a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 2 better well JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 3 understanding understanding NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 4 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 5 these these DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 6 relations relation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 7 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 8 instrumental instrumental JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 9 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 10 combating combat VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 11 both both CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 12 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 13 current current JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 14 urgency urgency NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 15 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 16 other other JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 17 communicable communicable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 18 diseases disease NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 100 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 1 To to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 2 address address VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 3 those those DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 4 issues issue NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 6 however however RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 9 need need VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 10 representative representative NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 11 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 12 comparable comparable JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 13 statistics statistic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 14 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 15 how how WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 17 differ differ VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 18 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 19 odds odd NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 20 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 21 catch catch VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 22 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 23 then then RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 24 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 25 spread spread VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 26 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 27 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 101 28 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 1 Such such JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 2 data datum NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 3 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 4 barely barely RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 5 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 7 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 9 call call VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 10 statistical statistical JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 11 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 12 healthcare healthcare NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 13 agencies agency NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 14 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 15 urgently urgently RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 16 fill fill VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 18 gap gap NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 19 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 20 data datum NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 21 on on IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 22 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 23 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 24 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 102 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 103 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 103 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 103 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 103 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 103 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 103 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 104 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 104 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 104 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 104 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 104 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 104 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 105 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 106 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 2 incorporate incorporate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 3 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 4 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 5 into into IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 7 discrete discrete JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 9 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 11 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 107 12 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 2 assume assume VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 3 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 4 symmetric symmetric JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 5 model model NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 6 where where WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 7 both both CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 9 propensity propensity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 10 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 11 catching catch VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 12 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 13 virus virus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 14 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 16 propensity propensity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 18 spreading spread VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 19 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 20 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 21 proportional proportional JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 22 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 23 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 24 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 25 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 26 ݇ ݇ NNPS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 108 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 1 Hence hence RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 4 model model VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 5 new new JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 6 infections infection NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 7 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 8 follows follow VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 9 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 109 10 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 2 modeling model VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 4 course course NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 6 recovering recover VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 9 trace trace VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 11 duration duration NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 12 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 14 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 15 period period NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 16 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 17 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 18 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 19 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 20 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 21 assume assume VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 22 every every DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 23 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 24 person person NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 25 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 26 recover recover VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 27 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 28 time time NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 29 ߬ ߬ NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 30 after after IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 31 getting get VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 32 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 110 33 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 1 That that RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 2 is is RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 5 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 7 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 8 recovering recover VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 9 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 11 period period NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 12 ‫ݐ‬ ‫ݐ‬ CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 13 equals equal VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 14 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 111 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 112 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 112 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 112 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 112 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 112 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 112 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 113 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 113 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 113 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 113 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 113 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 113 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 114 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 115 15 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 2 neglect neglect VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 3 R r NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 4 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 5 S s NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 6 transitions transition NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 7 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 8 recovered recover VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 9 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 11 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 12 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 13 because because IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 14 such such JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 15 transitions transition NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 16 have have VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 17 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 18 yet yet RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 19 been be VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 20 reported report VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 21 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 22 play play VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 23 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 24 substantial substantial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 25 role role NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 26 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 27 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 28 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 29 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 116 30 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 2 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 3 neglect neglect VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 5 fatality fatality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 8 disease disease NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 9 because because IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 11 intend intend VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 12 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 13 highlight highlight VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 15 primary primary JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 16 effects effect NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 18 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 19 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 20 upon upon IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 22 overall overall JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 23 course course NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 24 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 117 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 1 Introducing introduce VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 2 R R NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 3 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 4 S s NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 5 transitions transition NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 7 mortality mortality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 9 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 10 more more RBR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 11 realistic realistic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 12 demographics demographic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 13 should should MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 14 pose pose VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 15 no no DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 16 difficulty difficulty NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 18 future future JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 19 research research NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 118 20 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 1 Assuming assume VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 3 entire entire JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 4 original original JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 5 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 6 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 7 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 10 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 11 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 12 secondary secondary JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 13 infections infection NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 14 per per IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 15 one one CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 16 initially initially RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 17 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 18 person person NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 19 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 20 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 21 ݆ ݆ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 22 over over IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 23 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 24 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 25 period period NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 26 ߬ ߬ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 27 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 28 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 29 found find VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 30 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 32 3 3 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 34 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 35 here here RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 36 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 37 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 38 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 39 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 40 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 41 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 42 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 43 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 44 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 45 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 46 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 47 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 48 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 49 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 50 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 51 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 52 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 53 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 54 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 119 55 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 120 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 121 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 121 2 doi doi XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 121 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 2 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 3 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 4 halt halt VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 6 new new JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 7 infections infection NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 8 completely completely RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 122 9 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 123 1 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 123 2 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 2 5 5 LS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 4 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 6 10 10 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 8 lead lead NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 9 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 11 following follow VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 12 closedform closedform NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 13 solution solution NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 14 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 16 evolution evolution NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 19 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 20 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 21 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 124 22 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 2 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 4 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 5 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 6 ݇ ݇ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 9 faster fast JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 10 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 12 fall fall NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 13 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 16 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 19 11 11 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 125 21 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 1 That that DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 2 creates create VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 3 compositional compositional JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 4 change change NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 5 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 7 remaining remain VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 8 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 9 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 10 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 12 change change NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 13 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 14 suppresses suppress VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 16 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 17 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 18 weighted weight VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 19 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 20 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 126 21 ‫ܬ‬ ‫ܬ‬ NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 127 1 ሺ ሺ LS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 127 2 ‫ݐ‬ ‫ݐ‬ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 1 ሻ ሻ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 2 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 3 checks check VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 5 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 128 9 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 2 generating generate VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 3 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 4 interpreting interpret VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 5 results result NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 7 simulation simulation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 8 scenarios scenario NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 9 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 11 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 12 useful useful JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 14 relate relate VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 16 model model NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 18 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 20 commonly commonly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 21 used use VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 22 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 23 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 24 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 25 ܴ ܴ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 129 26 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 1 To to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 2 establish establish VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 4 relation relation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 5 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 6 assume assume VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 8 initial initial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 9 distribution distribution NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 10 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 11 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 12 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 13 follows follow VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 14 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 15 model model NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 16 relation relation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 18 3 3 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 20 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 21 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 22 proportional proportional JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 23 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 25 weighted weighted JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 26 populations population NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 27 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 28 each each DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 29 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 30 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 130 31 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 1 That that RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 2 is is RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 3 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 5 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 7 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 8 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 10 weighted weighted JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 11 average average NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 12 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 14 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 15 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 16 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 17 weights weight NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 18 equal equal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 19 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 20 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 21 weighted weighted JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 22 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 23 populations population NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 24 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 25 each each DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 26 type type NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 131 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 1 At at IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 2 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 3 advanced advanced JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 4 phase phase NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 8 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 9 substantial substantial JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 10 portions portion NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 11 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 12 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 13 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 14 move move VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 15 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 16 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 17 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 18 recovered recovered JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 19 compartments compartment NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 20 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 21 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 23 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 24 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 25 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 26 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 27 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 28 new new JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 29 outbreak outbreak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 30 decreases decrease VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 31 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 32 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 33 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 34 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 35 new new JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 36 outbreak outbreak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 37 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 38 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 39 contained contain VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 40 without without IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 41 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 42 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 132 43 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 1 subpopulation subpopulation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 3 set set VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 4 at at IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 5 such such PDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 7 level level NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 8 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 10 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 11 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 12 average average JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 13 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 133 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 134 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 134 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 134 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 134 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 134 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 134 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 135 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 135 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 135 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 135 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 135 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 135 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 136 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 137 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 138 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 138 2 doi doi XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 138 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 2 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 3 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 5 12 12 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 7 equals equal VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 8 3 3 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 139 9 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 2 form form VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 4 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 5 populations population NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 6 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 7 such such PDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 8 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 9 way way NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 10 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 11 10 10 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 12 or or CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 13 20 20 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 14 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 16 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 17 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 18 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 19 responsible responsible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 20 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 21 80 80 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 22 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 23 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 25 further further JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 26 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 27 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 28 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 29 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 30 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 31 similar similar JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 32 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 33 what what WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 34 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 35 reported report VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 36 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 37 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 38 literature literature NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 39 [ [ -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 40 17 17 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 41 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 42 [ [ -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 43 18 18 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 44 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 45 [ [ -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 46 19 19 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 47 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 140 48 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 1 Assuming assume VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 2 that that IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 3 ‫ݔ‬ ‫ݔ‬ CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 4 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 6 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 7 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 8 responsible responsible JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 9 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 10 ‫ݕ‬ ‫ݕ‬ DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 11 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 12 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 13 transmissions transmission NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 14 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 16 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 17 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 18 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 19 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 20 - - NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 21 spreaders spreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 23 ݇ ݇ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 24 ଵ ଵ LS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 26 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 27 superspreaders superspreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 28 may may MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 29 be be VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 30 found find VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 31 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 33 12 12 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 35 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 36 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 37 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 38 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 39 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 40 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 41 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 42 model model NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 43 turns turn VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 44 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 45 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 46 conventional conventional JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 47 SIR SIR NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 48 model model NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 141 49 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 142 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 142 2 Fig Fig NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 142 3 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 1 S1 s1 NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 4 present present VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 5 sizes size NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 6 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 7 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 8 three three CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 9 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 10 compartments compartment NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 11 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 12 four four CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 13 selected select VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 14 simulations simulation NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 15 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 17 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 18 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 19 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 20 no no DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 21 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 22 intervention intervention NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 24 pane pane NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 26 a a NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 29 ; ; : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 30 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 31 reducing reduce VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 32 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 143 33 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 144 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 144 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 144 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 144 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 144 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 144 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 145 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 145 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 145 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 145 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 145 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 145 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 146 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 1 similarly similarly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 2 timed time VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 4 pane pane NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 6 c c NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 9 leads lead VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 10 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 11 near near IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 12 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 13 optimal optimal NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 14 results result NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 147 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 2 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 3 such such PDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 4 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 5 ' ' `` cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 6 optimality optimality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 7 ' ' '' cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 8 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 10 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 11 ignores ignore VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 12 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 13 fatality fatality NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 14 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 15 healthcare healthcare NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 16 systems system NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 17 ' ' POS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 18 capacity capacity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 19 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 20 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 21 become become VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 22 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 23 concern concern NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 24 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 25 many many JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 26 countries country NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 148 27 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 149 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 149 2 Fig Fig NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 149 3 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 1 S2 S2 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 3 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 4 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 5 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 6 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 8 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 9 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 10 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 11 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 12 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 13 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 14 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 15 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 16 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 17 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 18 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 19 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 150 20 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 151 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 152 1 Table table NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 152 2 S1 S1 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 152 3 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 1 Even even RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 2 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 3 only only RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 4 half half NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 7 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 8 being be VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 9 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 10 - - NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 11 spreaders spreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 13 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 14 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 15 no no DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 16 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 17 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 19 long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 20 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 21 term term NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 22 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 23 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 24 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 26 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 27 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 28 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 29 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 30 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 31 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 32 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 33 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 34 decrease decrease VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 35 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 36 more more JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 37 than than IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 38 30 30 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 39 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 40 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 41 compared compare VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 42 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 43 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 44 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 45 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 153 46 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 1 In in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 2 an an DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 3 extreme extreme JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 4 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 5 where where WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 6 99.9 99.9 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 7 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 8 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 9 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 10 are be VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 11 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 12 - - NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 13 spreaders spreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 14 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 16 long long JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 17 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 18 term term NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 19 cost cost NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 20 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 21 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 23 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 24 only only RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 25 about about RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 26 five five CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 27 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 28 without without IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 29 any any DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 30 policy policy NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 31 intervention intervention NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 154 32 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 2 peak peak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 3 level level NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 4 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 5 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 6 infected infected JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 7 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 8 also also RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 9 falls fall VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 10 dramatically dramatically RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 11 as as IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 12 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 13 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 14 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 15 increases increase NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 16 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 155 17 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 156 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 156 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 156 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 156 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 156 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 156 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 157 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 157 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 157 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 157 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 157 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 157 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 158 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 159 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 2 pane pane NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 4 c c NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 8 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 9 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 10 optimal optimal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 11 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 12 reducing reduce VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 13 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 14 spread spread NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 15 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 16 99.1 99.1 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 17 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 18 that that WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 19 starts start VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 20 at at IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 160 21 ‫ݐ‬ ‫ݐ‬ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 161 1 ൌ ൌ NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 161 2 5 5 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 161 3 7 7 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 2 pane pane NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 4 d d NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 162 7 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 1 All all DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 2 lockdowns lockdown NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 3 last last JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 5 14 14 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 6 days day NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 163 7 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 1 Vertical vertical JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 2 axis axis NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 4 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 5 size size NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 6 starting start VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 7 with with IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 8 1000 1000 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 9 original original JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 10 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 164 11 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 1 Horizontal horizontal JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 2 axis axis NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 4 time time NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 5 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 6 days day NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 7 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 9 original original JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 10 infection infection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 11 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 12 0.01 0.01 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 13 percent percent NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 14 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 15 people people NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 165 16 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 3 strength strength NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 4 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 8 ; ; : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 9 ‫ܫ‬ ‫ܫ‬ NFP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 10 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 12 eventual eventual JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 13 proportion proportion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 14 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 16 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 17 infected infect VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 18 throughout throughout IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 19 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 20 course course NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 21 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 22 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 24 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 166 25 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 167 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 167 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 167 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 167 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 167 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 167 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 168 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 168 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 168 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 168 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 168 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 168 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 169 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 2 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 3 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 4 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 5 certified certify VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 6 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 7 peer peer NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 8 review review NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 170 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 171 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 172 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 172 2 doi doi XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 172 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 173 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 173 2 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 173 3 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 174 1 CC CC NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 174 2 - - : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 174 3 BY by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 174 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 174 5 International international JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 174 6 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 175 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 175 2 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 175 3 made make VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 175 4 available available JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 175 5 under under IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 175 6 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 1 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 3 author author NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 4 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 5 funder funder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 6 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 7 who who WP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 8 has have VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 9 granted grant VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 12 license license NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 13 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 14 display display VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 15 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 16 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 17 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 176 19 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 2 which which WDT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 3 was be VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 4 not not RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 5 certified certify VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 6 by by IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 7 peer peer NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 8 review review NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 177 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 2 copyright copyright NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 3 holder holder NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 4 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 5 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 6 preprint preprint NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 7 this this DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 8 version version NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 9 posted post VBD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 10 June June NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 11 26 26 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 12 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 13 2020 2020 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 14 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 178 15 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 179 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140442 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 179 2 doi doi XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 179 3 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 180 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 180 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 180 3 _SP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 180 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 180 5 4 4 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 180 6 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 181 1 eLife eLife NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 181 2 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 182 1 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 182 2 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 182 3 A a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 182 4 collection collection NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 182 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 182 6 articles article NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 1 A a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 2 contribution contribution NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 3 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 4 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 5 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 6 theory theory NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 9 Lessons Lessons NNPS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 10 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 11 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 12 rapid rapid JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 13 systematic systematic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 14 review review NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 15 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 16 early early JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 17 SARS SARS NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 18 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 19 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 20 serosurveys serosurveys NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 21 Experts expert NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 22 ' ' POS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 23 request request NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 24 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 25 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 26 Spanish spanish JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 27 Government Government NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 28 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 29 move move VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 30 Spain Spain NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 31 towards towards IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 32 complete complete JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 33 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 34 First first JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 35 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 36 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 37 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 38 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 39 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 40 severity severity NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 41 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 42 China China NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 43 outside outside IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 44 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 45 after after IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 46 control control NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 47 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 48 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 49 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 50 second second JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 51 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 52 wave wave NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 53 scenario scenario NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 54 planning planning NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 55 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 56 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 57 modelling modelling NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 58 impact impact NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 59 assessment assessment NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 60 How how WRB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 61 will will MD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 62 country country NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 63 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 64 based base VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 65 mitigation mitigation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 66 measures measure NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 67 influence influence VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 68 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 69 course course NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 70 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 71 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 72 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 73 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 183 74 ? ? . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 2 incubation incubation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 3 period period NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 4 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 5 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 6 disease disease NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 7 2019 2019 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 9 CoVID-19 CoVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 11 from from IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 12 publicly publicly RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 13 reported report VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 14 confirmed confirm VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 15 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 16 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 17 Estimation estimation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 18 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 19 application application NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 20 Social Social NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 21 network network NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 22 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 23 based base VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 24 distancing distance VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 25 strategies strategy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 26 to to TO cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 27 flatten flatten VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 28 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 29 COVID COVID NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 30 19 19 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 31 curve curve NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 32 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 33 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 34 post post JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 35 - - JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 36 lockdown lockdown JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 37 world world NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 38 Estimation estimation NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 39 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 40 country country NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 41 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 42 level level NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 43 basic basic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 44 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 45 ratios ratio NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 46 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 47 novel novel JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 48 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 49 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 50 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 52 using use VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 53 synthetic synthetic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 54 contact contact NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 55 matrices matrix NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 56 Health Health NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 57 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 58 sustainability sustainability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 59 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 60 post post JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 61 - - JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 62 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 63 economic economic JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 64 policies policy NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 65 Early Early NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 66 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 67 Dynamics Dynamics NNPS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 68 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 69 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 70 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 71 China China NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 72 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 73 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 74 Novel Novel NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 75 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 76 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 77 Infected Infected NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 78 Pneumonia Pneumonia NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 79 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 80 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 81 clinical clinical JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 82 features feature NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 83 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 84 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 85 2019 2019 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 86 novel novel JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 87 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 88 outbreak outbreak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 89 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 184 90 China China NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 1 The the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 2 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 3 number number NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 4 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 6 is be VBZ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 7 higher high JJR cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 8 compared compare VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 9 to to IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 11 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 12 Clustering clustering NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 13 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 14 superspreading superspreade VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 15 potential potential NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 16 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 17 severe severe JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 18 acute acute JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 19 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 20 syndrome syndrome NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 21 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 185 22 2 2 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 2 SARS SARS NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 3 - - HYPH cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 4 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 6 infections infection NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 7 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 8 Hong Hong NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 9 Kong Kong NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 10 Estimating estimate VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 11 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 12 overdispersion overdispersion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 13 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 15 transmission transmission NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 16 using use VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 17 outbreak outbreak NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 18 sizes size NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 19 outside outside IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 20 China China NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 21 Epidemiology Epidemiology NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 22 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 23 transmission transmission NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 24 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 25 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 26 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 27 391 391 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 28 cases case NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 29 and and CC cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 30 1286 1286 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 31 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 32 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 33 close close JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 34 contacts contact NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 35 in in IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 36 Shenzhen Shenzhen NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 37 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 38 China China NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 186 39 : : : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 1 a a DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 2 retrospective retrospective JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 3 cohort cohort NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 4 study study NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 5 # # NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 6 propoirtion propoirtion NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 7 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 8 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 9 - - NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 10 spreaders spreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 11 ; ; : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 12 = = SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 187 13 0 0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 1 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 2 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 3 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 4 case case NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 5 k1<-0.5 k1<-0.5 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 6 # # NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 7 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 8 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 9 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 11 non non JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 12 - - JJ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 13 spreaders spreader NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 188 14 k2<-R0*(1+sqrt(1 k2<-R0*(1+sqrt(1 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 1 +4*beta*k1*(R0-k1)/(R0 +4*beta*k1*(r0-k1)/(r0 XX cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 2 ^ ^ NFP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 3 2*(1-beta))))/2 2*(1-beta))))/2 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 4 # # NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 5 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 6 parameter parameter NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 7 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 8 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 9 superspreaders superspreaders NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 10 K<-c(k1,k2 K<-c(k1,k2 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 12 # # $ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 13 communicability communicability NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 14 parameters parameter NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 15 # # VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 16 ditribution ditribution NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 17 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 18 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 189 19 population population NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 1 * * NFP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 2 tau))-1 tau))-1 DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 3 # # $ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 4 period period NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 190 8 qq<-0.1 qq<-0.1 . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 191 1 # # NFP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 191 2 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 191 3 efficiency efficiency NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 191 4 coef coef NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 191 5 . . . cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 192 1 1 1 LS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 192 2 -no -no CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 192 3 lockdown lockdown NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 1 ; ; : cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 2 0 0 CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 3 -absolute -absolute SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 4 halt halt NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 5 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 7 Q<-ifelse(Horizon Q<-ifelse(Horizon NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 8 % % NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 9 in% in% NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 10 Quaranteen Quaranteen NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 11 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 12 qq,1 qq,1 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 14 # # $ cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 193 15 generate generate VBP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 1 scenario scenario NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 2 FUN fun NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 3 = = SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 4 sum sum NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 6 plot(Pt.agr$t plot(Pt.agr$t NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 7 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 8 Pt.agr$S Pt.agr$S NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 194 9 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 1 type="l",col="darkgreen type="l",col="darkgreen NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 2 R r NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 3 if(min(Q)<1 if(min(q)<1 NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 5 rect(min(Horizon[Q!=1]),-10,max(Horizon[Q!=1 rect(min(Horizon[Q!=1]),-10,max(Horizon[Q!=1 JJS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 195 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 1 , , , cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 2 1100,density=30,col="grey 1100,density=30,col="grey CD cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 3 # # NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 4 function function NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 5 generating generate VBG cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 6 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 8 scenario scenario NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 9 for for IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 10 the the DT cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 11 given give VBN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 12 set set NN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 13 of of IN cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 14 parameters parameter NNS cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 15 CoVgen<-function CoVgen<-function NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 196 16 ncol= ncol= RB cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 197 1 tau tau NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 197 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 198 1 P.k<-P*distr P.k<-P*distr NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 198 2 N0<-sum(K*P.k N0<-sum(K*P.k NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 198 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 198 4 alpha<-step/(tau*N0 alpha<-step/(tau*N0 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 198 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 199 1 k k NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 199 2 / / SYM cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 199 3 N0 N0 NNP cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 199 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-263248-8y1u0h6y 199 5 if(sum(I.k)