id author title date pages extension mime words sentences flesch summary cache txt cord-004157-osol7wdp Ma, Junling Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number 2020-01-08 .txt text/plain 5474 393 60 Typically, for an epidemic model that contains a single transmission rate b, if all other parameters can be estimated independently to the exponential growth rate l, then l determines b, and thus determines R 0 . Wallinga and Lipsitch (Wallinga & Lipsitch, 2006 ) developed a non-parametric method to infer the basic reproduction number from the exponential growth rate without assuming a model. Let cðtÞdt be the number of new infections during the time interval ½t;t þ dt, that is, cðtÞ is the incidence rate, and SðtÞ be the average susceptibility of the population, i.e., the expected susceptibility of a randomly selected individual. Equation (5) links the exponential growth rate to the basic reproduction number though the serial interval distribution only. That is, if we can estimate the serial interval distribution and the exponential growth rate independently, that we can infer the basic reproduction number. Note that the serial interval distribution wðtÞ can be estimated independently to the exponential growth rate. ./cache/cord-004157-osol7wdp.txt ./txt/cord-004157-osol7wdp.txt