id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	Cakmakli, Cem	Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time Varying Parameter SIRD Model	2020-07-03		.txt	text/plain	7551	423	58	This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized autoregressive score modelling structure designed for the typically daily count data related to pandemic. A real-time estimation and forecasting exercise starting from April show that the proposed model with time varying parameters indeed provide timely information on the current stance of the pandemic ahead of the competing models. (2020) use a least squares based approach on a rolling window of daily observations and document the time variation of parameters in the SIRD based model using Chinese data. Independent of the analysis of COVID-19 pandemic, observation-driven models for count data are considered in many different cases. Finally, we explore whether this capability of the TVP-SIRD model in reflecting the stance of the pandemic in a timely manner indeed proved to be useful in forecasting the number of active cases.	./cache/cord-117688-20gfpbyf.txt	./txt/cord-117688-20gfpbyf.txt