id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-118553-ki6bbuod	Piccolomini, Elena Loli	Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 spread in Italy with an adaptive SEIRD model	2020-03-22		.txt	text/plain	1842	107	55	In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February 24th 2020. Since several restricting measures have been imposed by the Italian government at different times, starting from March 8th 2020, we propose a modification of SEIRD by introducing a time dependent transmitting rate. The SIR model and its later modifications, such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) [2] are commonly used by the epidemic medical community in the study of outbreaks diffusion.In these models, the population is divided into groups. Hopefully, these measures will affect the spread of the COVID-19 virus reducing the number of infected people and the value of the parameter R0. In this paper we propose a SEIRD model accounting for five different groups, Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovery and Dead.	./cache/cord-118553-ki6bbuod.txt	./txt/cord-118553-ki6bbuod.txt