id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-154170-7pnz98o6	Ponciano, Jos'e Miguel	Poverty levels, societal and individual heterogeneities explain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic growth in Latin America	2020-05-22		.txt	text/plain	3253	175	46	Latin America is experiencing severe impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but poverty and weak public health institutions hamper gathering the kind of refined data needed to inform classical SEIR models of epidemics. Here we show that a multi-model, multi-stages modeling approach helps elucidate i) early epidemic growth in fourteen Latin-American countries ii) the role of poverty in shaping the growth rate of the number of cases and iii) the probability that the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 exceeds any given amount within arbitrarily defined small windows of time, starting from the present. We draw on prior work in conservation biology, population dynamics and epidemiological theory to complement the current suite of deterministic epidemiological models, characterize the role of urban poverty in shaping the region's SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, and develop a methodology to generate short (5-15 days), sequentially updatable, process-based forecasts.	./cache/cord-154170-7pnz98o6.txt	./txt/cord-154170-7pnz98o6.txt