id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-244657-zp65561y	Hawryluk, Iwona	Simulating normalising constants with referenced thermodynamic integration: application to COVID-19 model selection	2020-09-08		.txt	text/plain	7250	371	49	In this paper we introduce a variation of the TI method, here referred to as referenced TI, which computes a single model's evidence in an efficient way by using a reference density such as a multivariate normal where the normalising constant is known. We show that referenced TI, an asymptotically exact Monte Carlo method of calculating the normalising constant of a single model, in practice converges to the correct result much faster than other competing approaches such as the method of power posteriors. In each referenced TI scenario, we note that even if the reference approximation is poor, the estimate of the normalising constant based on Equation 3 remains asymptotically exact -only the speed of convergence may be reduced (provided assumptions such matching support of end-point densities remains). In the primary application discussed later, regarding relatively complex high-dimensional Bayesian hierarchical models, we use this approach to generate a reference density and normalising constant.	./cache/cord-244657-zp65561y.txt	./txt/cord-244657-zp65561y.txt