id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-289325-jhokn5bu	Lachiany, Menachem	Effects of distribution of infection rate on epidemic models	2016-08-11		.txt	text/plain	6823	446	59	We show that when variability in infection rates is included in standard susciptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models the total number of infected individuals in the late dynamics can be orders lower than predicted from the early dynamics. As will be further shown, the initial dynamics are only affected by the first moment of the distribution (the expected values of β), while the total number of infected individuals during the outbreak in the SIR model or the steady-state infected fraction in the SIS model can be strongly affected by the following moments. Thus, in some distributions, it is impossible to predict the "outcome" of the epidemics from the observed initial dynamics and the resulting estimate of Ro. To examine the behavior of the infected class as a function of time, we developed a moment closure scheme, and we use the following notations:	./cache/cord-289325-jhokn5bu.txt	./txt/cord-289325-jhokn5bu.txt