id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-316393-ozl28ztz	Enrique Amaro, José	Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models	2020-10-22		.txt	text/plain	5293	294	58	The Death or 'D' model is a simplified version of the well-known SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) compartment model, which allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically by assuming no recovery during the pandemic. By fitting to available data, the D-model provides a precise way to characterize the exponential and normal phases of the pandemic evolution, and it can be extended to describe additional spatial-time effects such as the release of lockdown measures. More accurate calculations using the extended SIR or ESIR model, which includes recovery, and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations – also developed in this work – predict similar trends and suggest a common pandemic evolution with universal parameters. Additionally, D-model calculations are benchmarked with more sophisticated and reliable calculations using the extended SIR (ESIR) and Monte Carlo Planck (MCP) models -also developed in this work -which provide similar results, but allow for a more coherent spatial-time disentanglement of the various effects present during a pandemic.	./cache/cord-316393-ozl28ztz.txt	./txt/cord-316393-ozl28ztz.txt