id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-335418-s8ugu8e1	Annan, James D	Model calibration, nowcasting, and operational prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic	2020-04-17		.txt	text/plain	4075	205	57	We present a simple operational nowcasting/forecasting scheme based on a joint state/parameter estimate of the COVID-19 epidemic at national or regional scale, performed by assimilating the time series of reported daily death numbers into a simple SEIR model. This system generates estimates of the current reproductive rate, Rt, together with predictions of future daily deaths and clearly outperforms a number of alternative forecasting systems that have been presented recently. In this work, we focus on the the current reproductive rate of the epidemic, R t , as the main parameter of interest, and also on the reported number of daily deaths, both as being the most reliable source of data (i.e., our observations O in the application of Bayes' Theorem above) and also the primary forecast variable of interest to the public and policy makers. We have presented a simple data assimilation method that simultaneously calibrates and initialises a SEIR model for nowcasting and forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic at national and regional scale.	./cache/cord-335418-s8ugu8e1.txt	./txt/cord-335418-s8ugu8e1.txt