id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	1	key	key	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	2	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	3	cord-117688	cord-117688	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	5	20gfpbyf	20gfpbyf	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	6	authors	author	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	7	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	8	Cakmakli	Cakmakli	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	10	Cem	Cem	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	11	;	;	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	12	Simsek	Simsek	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	1	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	1	Yasin	Yasin	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	2	title	title	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	3	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	4	Bridging	bridge	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	6	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	7	Data	Data	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	10	Epidemiological	Epidemiological	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	11	Model	Model	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	12	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	13	Time	Time	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	14	Varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	15	Parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	16	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	17	Model	Model	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	18	date	date	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	19	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	20	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	21	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	22	07	07	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	23	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	24	03	03	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	25	journal	journal	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	2	26	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	3	1	nan	nan	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	3	2	DOI	DOI	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	3	3	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	3	4	nan	nan	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	3	5	sha	sha	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	3	6	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	4	1	34aa470c6d89364ca328b55c9459df371792f80b	34aa470c6d89364ca328b55c9459df371792f80b	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	4	2	doc_id	doc_id	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	5	1	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	5	2	117688	117688	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	5	3	cord_uid	cord_uid	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	5	4	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	6	1	20gfpbyf	20gfpbyf	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	2	paper	paper	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	3	extends	extend	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	5	canonical	canonical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	8	epidemiology	epidemiology	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	10	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	11	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	13	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	14	allow	allow	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	15	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	16	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	17	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	18	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	19	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	20	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	21	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	22	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	23	measurement	measurement	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	26	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	29	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	30	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	7	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	1	Time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	2	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	4	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	5	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	7	captured	capture	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	8	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	10	generalized	generalized	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	11	autoregressive	autoregressive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	12	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	13	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	14	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	15	designed	design	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	16	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	18	typically	typically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	19	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	20	count	count	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	21	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	22	related	relate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	23	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	8	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	2	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	3	specification	specification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	4	permits	permit	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	6	flexible	flexible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	7	yet	yet	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	8	parsimonious	parsimonious	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	10	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	11	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	12	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	13	very	very	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	14	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	15	computational	computational	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	16	cost	cost	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	9	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	3	especially	especially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	4	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	5	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	7	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	10	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	11	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	13	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	15	scarce	scarce	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	18	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	20	abundant	abundant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	10	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	1	Full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	2	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	3	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	4	show	show	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	5	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	6	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	7	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	8	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	10	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	12	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	13	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	14	still	still	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	15	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	16	able	able	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	17	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	18	contain	contain	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	21	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	23	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	24	having	have	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	26	worst	bad	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	27	performance	performance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	11	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	1	Furthermore	furthermore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	3	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	4	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	5	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	6	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	7	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	8	likely	likely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	9	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	10	experience	experience	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	12	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	13	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	16	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	12	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	2	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	3	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	4	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	5	exercise	exercise	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	6	show	show	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	7	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	9	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	10	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	11	delivers	deliver	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	12	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	14	precise	precise	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	15	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	16	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	18	current	current	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	19	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	22	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	23	ahead	ahead	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	26	competitors	competitor	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	27	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	28	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	29	rolling	roll	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	30	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	13	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	4	turn	turn	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	6	transforms	transform	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	7	into	into	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	8	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	9	short	short	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	10	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	11	term	term	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	12	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	15	active	active	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	16	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	14	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	2	further	further	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	3	modify	modify	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	5	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	6	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	7	allow	allow	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	8	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	9	unreported	unreported	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	10	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	15	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	1	Results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	2	suggest	suggest	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	3	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	5	effects	effect	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	8	presence	presence	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	10	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	11	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	12	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	14	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	15	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	16	diminish	diminish	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	17	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	19	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	21	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	22	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	24	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	25	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	27	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	16	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	2	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	5	new	new	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	6	coronavirus	coronavirus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	8	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	11	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	13	most	most	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	14	severe	severe	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	15	health	health	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	16	crisis	crisis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	18	world	world	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	19	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	20	encountered	encounter	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	21	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	22	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	23	decades	decade	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	24	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	25	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	26	century	century	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	17	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	2	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	5	virus	virus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	6	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	7	been	be	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	8	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	9	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	10	unexpected	unexpected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	11	pace	pace	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	12	since	since	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	14	burst	burst	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	17	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	18	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	20	Wuhan	Wuhan	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	21	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	22	China	China	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	23	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	24	early	early	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	25	January	January	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	27	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	18	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	2	World	World	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	3	Health	Health	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	4	Organization	Organization	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	5	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	6	declared	declare	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	8	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	10	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	11	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	12	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	13	global	global	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	14	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	15	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	16	March	March	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	17	11	11	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	18	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	19	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	1	Official	official	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	2	records	record	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	3	indicate	indicate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	5	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	8	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	10	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	12	more	more	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	13	than	than	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	14	10	10	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	15	million	million	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	16	people	people	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	17	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	18	infected	infect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	19	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	20	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	21	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	22	death	death	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	23	toll	toll	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	24	approaching	approach	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	25	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	26	half	half	PDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	27	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	28	million	million	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	20	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	1	Anticipating	anticipate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	3	devastating	devastating	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	4	humanitarian	humanitarian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	5	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	6	economic	economic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	7	effects	effect	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	10	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	12	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	13	have	have	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	14	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	15	various	various	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	16	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	17	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	18	contain	contain	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	21	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	2	variety	variety	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	4	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	5	have	have	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	6	been	be	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	7	imposed	impose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	8	ranging	range	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	9	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	10	complete	complete	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	11	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	13	essentially	essentially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	14	freezing	freeze	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	16	flow	flow	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	18	life	life	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	19	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	20	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	21	uncertain	uncertain	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	22	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	23	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	24	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	25	partial	partial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	26	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	27	implying	imply	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	28	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	29	partial	partial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	30	closure	closure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	31	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	33	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	34	routines	routine	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	35	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	37	protection	protection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	38	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	39	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	40	most	most	RBS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	41	vulnerable	vulnerable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	42	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	43	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	44	population	population	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	22	45	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	3	contrary	contrary	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	5	some	some	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	6	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	7	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	8	Sweden	Sweden	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	10	England	England	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	12	Netherlands	Netherlands	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	13	were	be	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	14	reluctant	reluctant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	15	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	16	consider	consider	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	17	any	any	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	18	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	19	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	20	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	21	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	23	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	26	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	27	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	28	rapidly	rapidly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	29	switch	switch	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	30	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	31	impose	impose	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	32	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	33	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	23	34	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	1	Recently	recently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	3	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	4	vast	vast	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	5	majority	majority	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	7	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	9	launched	launch	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	11	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	12	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	13	normalization	normalization	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	14	confronting	confront	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	15	economic	economic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	16	pressures	pressure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	24	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	2	decision	decision	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	4	imposing	impose	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	5	and/or	and/or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	6	relaxation	relaxation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	8	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	9	various	various	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	10	sorts	sort	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	12	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	14	evaluating	evaluate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	16	outcome	outcome	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	18	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	19	actions	action	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	20	evidently	evidently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	21	rely	rely	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	22	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	23	efficiently	efficiently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	24	monitoring	monitor	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	26	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	29	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	25	30	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	3	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	4	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	5	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	6	estimating	estimating	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	9	perhaps	perhaps	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	10	even	even	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	11	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	12	crucially	crucially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	14	predicting	predict	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	16	trajectory	trajectory	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	18	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	19	come	come	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	20	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	22	forefront	forefront	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	26	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	1	However	however	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	3	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	4	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	5	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	6	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	7	turn	turn	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	8	out	out	RP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	9	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	10	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	11	effective	effective	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	13	changing	change	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	15	natural	natural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	16	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	19	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	20	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	21	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	22	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	23	implies	imply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	24	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	26	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	29	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	30	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	31	alter	alter	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	32	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	33	comply	comply	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	34	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	35	changing	change	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	36	trajectory	trajectory	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	27	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	4	departure	departure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	5	point	point	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	7	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	8	paper	paper	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	28	9	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	1	Specifically	specifically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	4	develop	develop	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	6	simple	simple	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	7	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	8	statistically	statistically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	9	coherent	coherent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	10	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	11	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	12	allows	allow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	14	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	15	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	18	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	21	conventional	conventional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	22	workhorse	workhorse	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	23	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	24	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	29	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	2	start	start	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	3	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	4	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	5	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	6	confronting	confront	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	7	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	8	simple	simple	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	9	version	version	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	12	workhorse	workhorse	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	13	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	14	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	15	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	17	actual	actual	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	18	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	30	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	1	From	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	3	perspective	perspective	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	5	econometrics	econometrics	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	8	specify	specify	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	9	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	10	count	count	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	11	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	12	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	13	modeling	model	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	15	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	18	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	19	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	20	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	21	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	22	selected	select	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	23	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	25	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	26	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	27	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	29	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	30	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	31	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	2	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	3	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	4	identifies	identify	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	6	four	four	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	7	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	10	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	11	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	12	Susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	14	Infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	16	Recovered	Recovered	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	32	18	Death	death	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	1	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	2	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	3	depicts	depict	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	5	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	7	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	8	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	9	depending	depend	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	10	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	12	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	13	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	15	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	16	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	17	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	18	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	19	Kermack	Kermack	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	21	McKendrick	McKendrick	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	23	1927	1927	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	33	25	;	;	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	34	1	Allen	Allen	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	34	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	34	3	2008	2008	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	34	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	34	5	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	4	contestation	contestation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	6	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	7	forces	force	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	9	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	11	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	12	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	14	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	16	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	18	resolution	resolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	20	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	22	form	form	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	24	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	25	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	26	death	death	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	27	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	28	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	29	determines	determine	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	31	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	32	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	33	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	35	34	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	4	extend	extend	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	6	econometric	econometric	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	7	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	8	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	9	allowing	allow	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	10	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	11	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	12	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	13	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	15	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	16	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	17	resorting	resort	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	18	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	20	Generalized	Generalized	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	21	Autoregressive	Autoregressive	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	22	Score	Score	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	23	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	24	GAS	gas	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	36	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	1	modeling	modeling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	2	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	3	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	6	class	class	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	8	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	9	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	10	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	11	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	37	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	2	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	3	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	4	permits	permit	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	6	flexible	flexible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	7	yet	yet	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	8	feasible	feasible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	9	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	10	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	11	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	12	track	track	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	14	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	16	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	17	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	18	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	19	timely	timely	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	21	accurately	accurately	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	38	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	1	One	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	2	important	important	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	3	aspect	aspect	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	5	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	6	specification	specification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	8	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	9	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	10	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	11	computational	computational	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	12	cost	cost	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	14	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	15	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	16	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	17	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	18	especially	especially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	19	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	21	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	25	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	27	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	28	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	29	scarce	scarce	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	30	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	32	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	33	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	34	overwhelming	overwhelming	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	39	35	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	2	construct	construct	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	3	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	4	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	6	selected	select	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	7	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	8	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	9	so	so	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	10	far	far	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	11	have	have	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	12	experienced	experience	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	13	different	different	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	14	courses	course	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	16	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	17	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	18	demonstrate	demonstrate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	20	efficacy	efficacy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	23	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	24	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	40	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	1	These	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	2	include	include	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	3	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	4	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	5	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	6	mitigate	mitigate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	8	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	9	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	10	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	11	differential	differential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	12	momentum	momentum	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	14	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	15	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	17	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	18	starts	start	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	19	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	20	late	late	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	21	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	22	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	23	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	24	experience	experience	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	25	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	26	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	27	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	28	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	29	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	41	30	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	2	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	3	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	4	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	5	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	6	ground	ground	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	7	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	8	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	9	wide	wide	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	10	variety	variety	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	12	patterns	pattern	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	13	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	14	examine	examine	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	16	potential	potential	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	19	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	20	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	42	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	2	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	3	indicate	indicate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	5	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	6	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	7	majority	majority	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	9	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	11	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	12	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	13	alter	alter	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	14	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	15	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	43	16	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	2	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	4	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	5	typically	typically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	6	starts	start	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	7	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	8	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	9	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	10	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	11	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	13	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	16	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	18	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	19	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	20	decreases	decrease	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	21	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	22	distinct	distinct	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	23	paces	pace	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	24	depending	depend	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	25	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	27	success	success	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	28	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	29	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	30	country	country	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	31	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	32	containing	contain	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	33	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	34	transmission	transmission	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	35	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	37	virus	virus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	44	38	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	3	contrary	contrary	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	6	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	7	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	8	starts	start	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	9	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	10	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	11	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	12	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	14	gets	get	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	15	stabilized	stabilize	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	16	after	after	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	17	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	18	increase	increase	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	19	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	20	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	21	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	22	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	23	reflecting	reflect	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	25	performance	performance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	27	health	health	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	28	systems	system	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	29	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	30	handling	handle	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	32	active	active	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	33	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	45	34	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	1	As	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	2	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	3	result	result	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	6	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	7	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	9	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	10	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	12	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	15	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	16	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	17	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	19	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	21	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	22	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	23	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	24	start	start	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	25	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	26	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	27	levels	level	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	28	often	often	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	29	exceeding	exceed	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	31	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	32	5	5	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	33	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	34	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	35	diminish	diminish	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	36	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	37	differential	differential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	38	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	46	39	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	1	Two	two	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	2	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	3	findings	finding	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	4	emerge	emerge	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	5	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	7	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	10	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	11	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	12	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	13	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	14	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	15	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	47	16	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	1	First	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	3	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	5	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	6	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	7	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	8	still	still	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	9	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	10	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	11	tackle	tackle	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	12	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	14	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	15	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	16	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	19	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	20	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	22	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	23	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	24	have	have	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	25	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	26	fallen	fall	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	27	below	below	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	29	critical	critical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	30	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	31	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	32	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	48	33	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	1	Second	second	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	3	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	4	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	5	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	6	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	7	seem	seem	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	8	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	9	experience	experience	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	11	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	12	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	15	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	49	16	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	2	further	further	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	3	examine	examine	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	5	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	7	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	8	performance	performance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	11	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	50	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	3	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	6	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	7	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	8	indicate	indicate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	10	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	13	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	14	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	15	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	16	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	17	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	19	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	20	provide	provide	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	21	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	22	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	23	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	24	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	25	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	26	least	least	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	29	short	short	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	30	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	31	run	run	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	51	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	2	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	3	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	4	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	5	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	6	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	7	forecasting	forecasting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	8	exercise	exercise	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	9	starting	start	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	10	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	11	April	April	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	12	show	show	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	13	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	15	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	16	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	17	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	18	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	19	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	20	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	21	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	22	provide	provide	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	23	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	24	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	25	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	27	current	current	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	28	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	31	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	32	ahead	ahead	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	34	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	35	competing	compete	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	36	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	52	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	1	Moreover	moreover	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	4	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	5	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	6	superior	superior	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	7	forecasting	forecasting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	8	performance	performance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	9	up	up	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	10	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	11	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	12	week	week	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	13	ahead	ahead	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	15	especially	especially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	16	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	17	those	those	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	18	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	19	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	20	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	21	currently	currently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	22	experiencing	experience	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	24	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	25	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	28	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	53	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	4	extend	extend	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	7	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	8	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	10	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	11	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	13	undocumented	undocumented	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	14	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	15	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	16	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	17	infected	infect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	18	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	19	do	do	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	20	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	21	show	show	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	22	symptoms	symptom	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	24	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	26	strategy	strategy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	28	Grewelle	Grewelle	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	29	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	30	De	De	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	31	Leo	Leo	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	32	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	33	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	54	35	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	2	inclusion	inclusion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	4	those	those	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	5	leads	lead	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	6	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	7	large	large	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	8	discrepancies	discrepancy	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	9	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	10	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	11	compared	compare	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	12	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	13	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	14	findings	finding	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	15	especially	especially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	16	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	18	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	21	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	22	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	23	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	24	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	25	converge	converge	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	26	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	27	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	28	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	29	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	31	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	32	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	33	May	May	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	34	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	35	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	36	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	37	figures	figure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	38	mount	mount	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	55	39	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	2	literature	literature	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	3	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	4	estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	6	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	7	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	9	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	10	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	11	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	14	variants	variant	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	15	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	16	evaluate	evaluate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	18	current	current	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	19	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	22	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	23	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	24	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	25	exploded	explode	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	26	since	since	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	28	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	31	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	56	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	1	Relatively	relatively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	2	earlier	early	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	3	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	4	include	include	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	5	Read	Read	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	6	et	et	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	7	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	57	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	58	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	58	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	58	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	59	1	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	59	2	Lourenco	Lourenco	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	59	3	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	59	4	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	59	5	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	4	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	5	estimate	estimate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	6	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	7	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	8	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	10	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	12	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	13	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	14	China	China	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	15	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	17	former	former	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	19	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	21	UK	UK	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	22	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	23	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	24	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	26	latter	latter	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	27	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	28	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	29	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	30	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	31	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	32	strategy	strategy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	60	33	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	61	1	Wu	Wu	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	61	2	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	61	3	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	61	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	4	blend	blend	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	5	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	6	related	relate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	7	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	8	COVID-19	covid-19	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	9	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	10	China	China	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	11	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	12	mobility	mobility	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	13	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	14	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	15	estimate	estimate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	17	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	18	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	19	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	20	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	21	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	22	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	23	predict	predict	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	25	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	28	virus	virus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	29	domestically	domestically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	30	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	31	internationally	internationally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	62	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	63	1	Li	Li	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	63	2	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	63	3	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	63	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	4	conduct	conduct	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	6	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	7	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	8	employing	employ	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	9	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	10	modified	modify	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	11	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	12	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	13	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	14	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	15	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	16	network	network	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	17	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	19	mobility	mobility	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	20	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	21	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	22	uncover	uncover	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	24	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	25	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	27	undocumented	undocumented	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	28	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	29	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	30	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	31	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	32	Hortaçsu	Hortaçsu	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	33	et	et	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	34	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	64	35	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	65	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	65	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	65	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	65	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	66	1	Zhang	Zhang	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	66	2	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	66	3	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	66	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	4	extend	extend	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	6	standard	standard	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	7	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	8	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	9	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	10	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	11	additional	additional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	12	compartments	compartment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	14	estimate	estimate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	15	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	16	part	part	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	18	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	19	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	20	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	21	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	67	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	1	Several	several	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	2	factors	factor	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	3	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	4	lead	lead	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	5	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	6	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	7	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	8	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	10	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	13	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	14	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	15	regarding	regard	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	16	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	18	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	68	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	3	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	7	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	8	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	9	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	10	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	12	policy	policy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	13	makers	maker	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	14	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	15	intended	intend	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	16	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	17	isolate	isolate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	19	infected	infect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	20	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	22	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	23	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	69	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	4	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	5	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	7	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	9	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	10	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	12	simply	simply	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	14	average	average	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	15	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	17	contacts	contact	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	19	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	20	person	person	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	21	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	22	likely	likely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	23	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	24	alter	alter	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	25	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	27	conduct	conduct	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	28	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	29	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	30	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	31	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	32	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	33	example	example	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	34	Hale	Hale	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	35	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	36	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	70	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	71	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	71	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	71	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	71	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	3	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	6	advancements	advancement	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	7	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	9	fight	fight	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	10	against	against	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	11	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	12	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	14	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	16	drugs	drug	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	17	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	18	could	could	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	19	effectively	effectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	20	mitigate	mitigate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	22	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	25	disease	disease	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	26	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	28	installment	installment	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	29	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	31	lack	lack	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	32	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	33	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	34	medical	medical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	35	equipment	equipment	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	36	such	such	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	37	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	38	ventilators	ventilator	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	39	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	40	alter	alter	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	41	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	42	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	43	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	44	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	45	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	46	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	47	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	48	words	word	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	49	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	50	duration	duration	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	51	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	52	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	53	state	state	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	54	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	55	being	be	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	56	infected	infect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	57	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	58	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	59	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	60	example	example	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	61	Greenhalgh	Greenhalgh	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	62	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	63	Day	Day	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	64	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	65	2017	2017	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	66	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	67	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	68	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	69	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	70	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	71	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	72	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	72	73	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	73	1	Accordingly	accordingly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	73	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	73	3	Anastassopoulou	Anastassopoulou	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	73	4	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	73	5	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	73	6	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	4	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	6	least	least	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	7	squares	square	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	8	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	9	approach	approach	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	10	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	11	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	12	rolling	rolling	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	13	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	15	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	16	observations	observation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	18	document	document	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	20	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	21	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	23	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	24	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	26	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	27	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	28	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	29	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	30	Chinese	chinese	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	31	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	74	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	1	Tan	Tan	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	2	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	3	Chen	Chen	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	4	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	5	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	7	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	8	employ	employ	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	9	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	10	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	11	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	12	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	13	articulated	articulated	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	14	rolling	roll	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	15	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	16	strategy	strategy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	17	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	18	capture	capture	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	20	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	21	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	22	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	24	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	25	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	75	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	1	Other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	2	frameworks	framework	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	3	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	4	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	5	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	7	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	8	almost	almost	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	9	exclusively	exclusively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	10	allow	allow	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	11	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	13	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	14	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	15	only	only	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	18	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	19	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	76	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	1	An	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	2	application	application	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	3	prior	prior	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	4	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	5	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	6	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	7	includes	include	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	9	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	10	example	example	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	12	Xu	Xu	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	13	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	14	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	77	15	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	2	2016	2016	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	4	among	among	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	5	others	other	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	7	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	8	utilize	utilize	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	9	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	10	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	11	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	12	prior	prior	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	15	incidence	incidence	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	16	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	17	involving	involve	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	19	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	21	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	22	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	23	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	24	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	25	nonparametric	nonparametric	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	26	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	78	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	3	context	context	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	5	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	6	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	8	Kucharski	Kucharski	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	9	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	10	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	79	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	4	estimate	estimate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	6	modified	modify	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	7	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	8	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	9	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	10	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	11	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	12	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	13	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	14	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	15	allowing	allow	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	17	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	18	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	19	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	20	follow	follow	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	21	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	22	geometric	geometric	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	23	random	random	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	24	walk	walk	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	25	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	27	remaining	remain	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	28	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	29	kept	keep	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	30	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	31	constant	constant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	32	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	33	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	34	Marioli	Marioli	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	35	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	36	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	80	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	6	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	7	approach	approach	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	81	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	82	1	Similarly	similarly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	82	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	82	3	Yang	Yang	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	82	4	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	82	5	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	82	6	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	4	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	5	Fernndez	Fernndez	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	7	Villaverde	Villaverde	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	9	Jones	Jones	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	11	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	13	allow	allow	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	14	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	15	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	16	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	17	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	19	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	21	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	22	keeping	keep	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	24	remaining	remain	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	25	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	26	constant	constant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	83	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	3	paper	paper	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	6	propose	propose	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	7	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	8	alternative	alternative	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	9	modeling	modeling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	10	strategy	strategy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	11	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	12	capture	capture	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	14	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	15	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	18	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	19	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	21	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	22	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	25	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	26	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	84	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	3	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	6	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	7	modeling	modeling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	8	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	9	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	10	statistically	statistically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	11	consistent	consistent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	12	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	14	typical	typical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	15	count	count	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	16	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	17	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	18	related	relate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	19	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	21	unlike	unlike	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	23	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	24	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	25	either	either	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	26	employ	employ	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	27	least	least	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	28	squares	square	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	29	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	30	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	31	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	32	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	33	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	34	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	35	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	36	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	37	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	38	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	39	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	40	Kalman	Kalman	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	41	filter	filter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	85	42	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	3	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	6	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	7	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	9	computationally	computationally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	10	inexpensive	inexpensive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	11	unlike	unlike	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	13	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	14	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	15	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	16	statistically	statistically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	17	consistent	consistent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	18	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	19	employing	employ	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	20	particle	particle	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	21	filter	filter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	22	type	type	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	24	methods	method	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	25	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	26	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	27	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	28	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	29	computationally	computationally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	30	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	31	costly	costly	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	86	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	2	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	3	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	4	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	5	especially	especially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	6	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	8	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	11	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	12	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	14	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	15	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	16	scarce	scarce	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	18	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	19	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	21	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	23	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	24	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	25	abounding	abound	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	87	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	2	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	3	belongs	belong	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	4	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	6	class	class	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	8	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	9	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	10	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	12	specifically	specifically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	13	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	15	class	class	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	17	Generalized	Generalized	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	18	Autoregressive	Autoregressive	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	19	Score	Score	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	20	Models	Models	NNPS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	22	henceforth	henceforth	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	23	GAS	gas	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	24	Models	Models	NNPS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	26	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	27	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	28	Creal	Creal	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	29	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	30	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	88	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	89	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	89	2	2013	2013	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	89	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	89	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	1	GAS	gas	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	2	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	3	involve	involve	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	4	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	7	celebrated	celebrated	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	8	econometric	econometric	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	9	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	10	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	11	Generalized	Generalized	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	12	Autoregressive	Autoregressive	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	13	Heteroskedasticy	Heteroskedasticy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	14	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	15	GARCH	garch	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	17	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	19	various	various	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	20	variants	variant	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	21	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	22	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	23	special	special	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	24	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	26	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	27	thus	thus	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	28	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	29	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	30	proved	prove	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	31	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	32	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	33	useful	useful	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	34	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	35	both	both	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	36	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	37	fitting	fitting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	38	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	39	well	well	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	40	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	41	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	90	42	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	91	1	Koopman	Koopman	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	91	2	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	91	3	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	91	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	2	2016	2016	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	4	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	6	comprehensive	comprehensive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	7	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	8	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	9	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	10	power	power	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	12	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	13	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	14	compared	compare	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	15	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	16	parameter	parameter	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	17	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	18	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	20	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	21	settings	setting	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	22	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	23	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	24	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	25	count	count	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	26	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	92	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	1	Independent	independent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	2	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	4	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	6	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	7	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	9	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	10	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	11	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	12	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	14	count	count	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	15	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	16	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	17	considered	consider	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	18	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	19	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	20	different	different	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	21	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	93	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	94	1	Davis	Davis	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	94	2	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	94	3	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	94	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	2	2003	2003	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	4	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	6	comprehensive	comprehensive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	7	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	8	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	9	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	10	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	11	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	12	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	13	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	14	focus	focus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	15	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	16	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	17	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	19	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	20	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	21	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	22	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	95	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	96	1	Ferland	Ferland	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	96	2	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	96	3	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	96	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	97	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	97	2	2006	2006	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	97	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	2	remainder	remainder	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	5	paper	paper	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	7	organized	organize	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	8	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	9	follows	follow	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	98	10	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	2	Section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	3	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	5	describe	describe	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	7	canonical	canonical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	8	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	10	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	11	introduce	introduce	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	13	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	14	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	15	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	16	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	17	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	18	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	19	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	20	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	21	details	detail	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	22	provided	provide	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	23	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	25	Appendix	Appendix	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	99	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	3	section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	6	discuss	discuss	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	8	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	9	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	10	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	11	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	12	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	13	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	14	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	15	various	various	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	16	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	100	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	2	Section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	3	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	6	discuss	discuss	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	8	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	9	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	10	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	11	performance	performance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	13	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	14	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	15	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	17	capturing	capture	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	19	current	current	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	20	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	23	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	24	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	25	well	well	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	26	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	28	short	short	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	29	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	30	term	term	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	31	forecasting	forecasting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	32	compared	compare	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	33	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	34	frequently	frequently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	35	used	use	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	36	competitors	competitor	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	101	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	2	Section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	3	4	4	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	6	extend	extend	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	8	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	9	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	10	account	account	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	11	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	12	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	13	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	14	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	15	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	16	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	17	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	19	therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	20	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	21	included	include	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	22	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	24	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	102	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	4	conclude	conclude	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	5	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	6	Section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	7	5	5	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	103	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	1	Hence	hence	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	3	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	4	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	5	γ	γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	6	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	7	ν	ν	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	10	infections	infection	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	11	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	12	'	'	``
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	13	resolved	resolve	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	14	'	'	''
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	15	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	16	total	total	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	104	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	2	leads	lead	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	5	following	follow	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	6	sets	set	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	8	equations	equation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	105	9	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	1	Note	note	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	2	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	4	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	5	equation	equation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	6	defines	define	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	8	law	law	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	10	motion	motion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	11	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	13	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	15	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	16	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	18	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	21	outcome	outcome	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	24	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	25	three	three	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	26	equations	equation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	27	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	28	∆S	∆S	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	29	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	106	30	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	107	1	∆R	∆r	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	107	2	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	107	3	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	108	1	∆I	∆I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	108	2	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	108	3	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	1	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	2	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	3	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	4	0	0	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	5	holds	hold	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	6	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	7	any	any	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	8	given	give	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	9	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	11	assuming	assume	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	12	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	14	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	17	population	population	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	18	remains	remain	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	19	constant	constant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	109	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	110	1	1	1	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	2	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	4	interest	interest	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	5	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	7	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	9	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	11	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	13	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	14	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	15	provide	provide	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	16	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	17	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	19	transmission	transmission	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	21	resolution	resolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	22	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	25	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	26	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	27	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	28	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	111	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	2	central	central	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	3	metric	metric	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	4	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	5	characterizes	characterize	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	7	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	10	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	13	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	14	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	16	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	17	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	112	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	2	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	3	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	4	refers	refer	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	5	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	7	speed	speed	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	10	diffusion	diffusion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	11	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	12	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	13	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	14	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	15	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	17	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	19	newly	newly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	20	confirmed	confirm	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	21	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	22	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	23	denoted	denote	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	24	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	25	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	26	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	27	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	28	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	29	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	31	resolved	resolve	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	32	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	33	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	34	that	that	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	35	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	36	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	37	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	38	/(∆R	/(∆R	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	39	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	40	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	41	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	42	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	43	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	113	44	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	4	serves	serve	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	5	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	6	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	7	threshold	threshold	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	8	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	10	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	11	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	12	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	14	disease	disease	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	15	extinction	extinction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	16	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	17	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	114	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	1	Considering	consider	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	3	fact	fact	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	5	S	S	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	6	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	7	/N	/N	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	8	≈	≈	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	9	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	11	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	12	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	13	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	14	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	15	approximated	approximate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	16	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	17	β/(γ	β/(γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	18	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	19	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	20	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	21	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	23	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	115	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	1	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	2	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	3	holds	hold	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	4	exactly	exactly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	5	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	6	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	7	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	8	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	10	referred	refer	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	11	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	13	basic	basic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	14	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	15	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	16	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	17	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	116	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	3	sense	sense	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	6	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	8	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	9	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	10	being	be	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	11	less	less	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	12	than	than	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	13	unity	unity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	14	indicates	indicate	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	15	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	17	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	18	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	19	contained	contain	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	21	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	22	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	23	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	24	unity	unity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	26	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	27	implies	imply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	28	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	29	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	30	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	31	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	33	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	34	continues	continue	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	117	35	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	1	Inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	2	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	3	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	5	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	6	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	7	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	9	thereby	thereby	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	10	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	11	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	12	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	13	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	14	enables	enable	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	15	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	16	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	17	track	track	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	19	trajectory	trajectory	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	22	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	118	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	2	main	main	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	3	motivation	motivation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	5	employing	employ	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	7	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	8	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	10	econometrics	econometrics	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	11	point	point	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	13	view	view	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	15	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	16	conform	conform	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	17	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	18	canonical	canonical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	19	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	20	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	21	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	23	actual	actual	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	24	datasets	dataset	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	25	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	26	pinpoint	pinpoint	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	28	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	31	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	32	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	119	33	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	2	that	that	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	3	purpose	purpose	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	6	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	7	discretesize	discretesize	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	9	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	11	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	13	typical	typical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	14	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	15	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	16	involves	involve	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	17	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	18	observations	observation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	19	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	21	counts	count	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	23	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	24	belonging	belong	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	25	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	26	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	27	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	28	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	29	health	health	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	120	30	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	1	Motivated	motivate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	2	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	3	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	6	specify	specify	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	7	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	8	counting	counting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	9	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	10	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	12	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	13	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	15	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	16	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	17	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	18	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	19	arrivals	arrival	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	20	implying	imply	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	21	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	22	nonhomogenous	nonhomogenous	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	23	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	24	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	25	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	26	all	all	PDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	28	counts	count	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	29	see	see	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	30	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	31	example	example	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	32	Allen	Allen	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	34	2008	2008	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	36	;	;	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	37	Yan	Yan	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	38	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	39	2008	2008	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	40	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	41	;	;	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	42	Rizoiu	Rizoiu	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	43	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	44	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	121	45	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	2	2018	2018	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	5	earlier	early	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	6	examples	example	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	7	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	8	Li	Li	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	9	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	10	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	122	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	2	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	4	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	6	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	7	context	context	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	8	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	9	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	10	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	11	approach	approach	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	123	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	2	leads	lead	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	5	following	following	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	6	specification	specification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	7	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	9	stochastic	stochastic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	10	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	12	counts	count	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	14	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	15	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	16	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	17	Ω	Ω	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	18	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	19	stands	stand	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	20	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	21	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	22	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	23	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	24	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	25	available	available	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	26	up	up	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	27	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	124	28	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	125	1	t.	t.	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	2	assume	assume	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	3	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	4	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	5	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	7	∆R	∆r	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	8	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	9	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	10	δD	δd	UH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	11	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	13	independent	independent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	14	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	15	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	16	Ω	Ω	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	17	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	126	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	2	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	3	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	6	active	active	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	7	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	9	infections	infection	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	11	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	12	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	15	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	16	Skellam	Skellam	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	17	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	19	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	20	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	21	Ω	Ω	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	22	t−1	t−1	WP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	24	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	26	mean	mean	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	27	πI	πI	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	28	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	29	=	=	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	30	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	31	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	32	+	+	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	33	β(R	β(R	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	127	34	−1	−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	1	0	0	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	2	−	−	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	3	1))I	1))i	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	4	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	5	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	7	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	8	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	9	β(R	β(R	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	10	−1	−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	128	11	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	1	+	+	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	2	1)I	1)i	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	3	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	5	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	7	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	9	identity	identity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	10	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	12	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	13	equation	equation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	14	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	15	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	17	definition	definition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	19	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	20	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	129	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	3	stationarity	stationarity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	6	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	7	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	8	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	9	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	10	whether	whether	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	11	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	12	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	13	<	<	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	14	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	15	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	16	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	17	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	18	≥	≥	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	19	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	20	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	21	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	22	whether	whether	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	25	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	26	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	27	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	28	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	29	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	30	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	130	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	2	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	3	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	4	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	5	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	6	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	8	identical	identical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	9	due	due	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	10	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	11	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	12	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	15	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	17	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	18	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	19	diverge	diverge	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	20	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	21	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	22	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	24	unconditonal	unconditonal	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	25	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	131	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	3	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	5	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	7	assume	assume	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	8	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	10	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	11	condition	condition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	13	I	i	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	14	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	16	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	17	known	know	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	132	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	1	If	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	3	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	4	condition	condition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	6	considered	consider	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	7	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	8	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	9	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	10	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	11	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	12	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	13	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	15	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	16	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	17	further	further	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	18	amplified	amplify	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	19	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	20	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	21	factor	factor	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	22	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	23	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	26	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	29	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	30	condition	condition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	133	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	1	Accordingly	accordingly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	4	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	5	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	8	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	11	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	13	linear	linear	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	14	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	16	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	17	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	18	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	20	I	I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	21	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	134	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	2	refer	refer	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	4	Appendix	Appendix	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	5	B.1	B.1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	7	details	detail	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	135	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	2	conduct	conduct	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	3	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	4	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	5	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	7	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	8	implied	imply	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	9	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	11	2	2	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	13	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	14	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	15	noninformative	noninformative	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	16	priors	prior	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	17	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	18	estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	20	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	21	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	136	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	1	Specifically	specifically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	3	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	4	all	all	PDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	6	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	8	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	9	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	10	independent	independent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	11	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	12	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	13	Hastings	Hastings	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	14	algorithm	algorithm	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	15	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	16	Normal	normal	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	17	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	18	around	around	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	20	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	21	mode	mode	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	22	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	23	Hessian	Hessian	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	24	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	26	candidate	candidate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	27	density	density	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	28	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	29	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	30	Robert	Robert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	31	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	32	Casella	Casella	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	34	2013	2013	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	36	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	37	details	detail	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	137	38	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	2	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	4	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	6	selected	select	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	7	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	9	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	10	starting	start	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	11	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	13	early	early	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	14	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	16	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	17	until	until	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	19	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	21	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	22	week	week	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	24	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	138	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	2	each	each	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	3	country	country	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	6	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	8	day	day	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	9	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	11	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	13	confirmed	confirm	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	14	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	15	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	16	1000	1000	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	17	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	19	starting	starting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	20	point	point	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	23	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	139	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	2	display	display	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	4	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	5	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	6	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	7	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	140	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	3	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	4	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	141	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	1	These	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	2	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	3	exhibit	exhibit	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	4	extensive	extensive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	5	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	6	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	7	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	9	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	10	experience	experience	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	11	related	relate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	12	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	13	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	142	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	1	Some	some	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	2	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	4	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	5	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	6	impose	impose	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	7	strict	strict	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	8	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	10	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	11	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	13	successful	successful	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	14	policies	policy	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	16	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	18	tracing	trace	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	19	promptly	promptly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	20	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	22	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	25	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	26	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	27	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	28	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	29	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	30	while	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	31	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	32	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	33	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	34	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	35	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	36	imposed	impose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	37	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	38	immense	immense	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	39	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	40	after	after	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	41	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	42	certain	certain	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	43	threshold	threshold	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	44	regarding	regard	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	45	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	46	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	47	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	48	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	49	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	143	50	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	1	Some	some	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	2	others	other	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	3	opt	opt	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	5	imposing	impose	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	6	mixed	mixed	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	7	strategies	strategy	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	8	involving	involve	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	9	partial	partial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	10	lockdowns	lockdown	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	12	voluntary	voluntary	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	13	quarantine	quarantine	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	14	such	such	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	15	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	16	Turkey	Turkey	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	18	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	144	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	2	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	3	include	include	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	4	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	5	interesting	interesting	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	6	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	7	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	8	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	9	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	10	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	11	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	13	going	go	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	14	through	through	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	15	differential	differential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	16	phases	phase	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	19	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	145	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	3	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	4	experiences	experience	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	6	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	7	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	10	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	12	though	though	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	13	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	14	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	15	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	16	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	17	start	start	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	18	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	19	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	20	pattern	pattern	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	21	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	22	albeit	albeit	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	23	much	much	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	24	milder	mild	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	146	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	1	Hence	hence	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	3	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	4	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	5	rich	rich	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	6	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	7	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	8	dataset	dataset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	9	involving	involve	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	10	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	11	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	12	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	13	sorts	sort	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	15	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	16	experience	experience	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	17	enables	enable	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	18	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	19	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	20	examine	examine	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	22	success	success	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	25	econometric	econometric	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	26	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	28	tracking	track	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	29	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	30	changes	change	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	31	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	33	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	34	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	35	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	36	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	37	response	response	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	38	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	39	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	40	policy	policy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	41	implementations	implementation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	147	42	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	2	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	5	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	6	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	7	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	8	displayed	display	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	9	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	10	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	11	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	148	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	3	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	4	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	149	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	2	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	3	focus	focus	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	4	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	6	basic	basic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	7	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	8	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	10	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	11	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	12	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	13	displayed	display	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	14	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	16	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	17	column	column	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	19	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	20	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	150	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	2	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	3	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	4	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	5	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	6	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	7	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	8	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	9	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	11	threshold	threshold	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	13	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	14	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	15	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	16	some	some	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	17	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	18	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	19	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	20	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	151	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	1	Apparently	apparently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	3	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	5	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	6	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	8	several	several	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	9	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	11	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	12	into	into	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	13	account	account	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	15	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	16	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	17	show	show	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	18	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	20	almost	almost	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	21	none	none	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	24	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	25	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	26	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	27	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	29	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	30	could	could	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	31	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	32	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	33	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	34	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	152	35	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	2	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	4	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	5	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	6	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	7	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	8	experience	experience	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	9	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	10	prolonged	prolonged	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	11	earlier	early	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	12	phases	phase	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	15	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	16	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	17	estimate	estimate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	18	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	19	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	20	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	21	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	22	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	23	very	very	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	24	close	close	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	25	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	26	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	27	or	or	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	28	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	29	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	30	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	31	departing	depart	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	32	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	33	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	34	rest	rest	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	35	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	37	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	38	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	39	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	40	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	153	41	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	3	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	4	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	6	almost	almost	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	7	exceptional	exceptional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	8	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	9	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	10	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	11	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	13	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	15	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	17	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	18	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	20	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	21	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	22	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	154	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	1	Indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	3	two	two	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	4	groups	group	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	5	come	come	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	6	into	into	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	7	view	view	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	8	considering	consider	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	10	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	11	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	155	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	1	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	2	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	3	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	4	constitute	constitute	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	6	group	group	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	7	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	8	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	9	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	10	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	11	departing	depart	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	12	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	14	remaining	remain	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	15	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	156	16	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	2	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	3	grouping	grouping	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	4	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	5	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	8	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	9	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	157	10	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	3	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	4	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	5	joins	join	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	6	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	8	group	group	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	10	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	11	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	12	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	13	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	14	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	15	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	17	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	158	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	2	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	3	results	result	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	4	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	5	Table	table	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	6	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	7	rely	rely	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	8	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	10	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	11	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	12	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	13	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	14	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	15	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	16	demonstrated	demonstrate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	17	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	19	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	20	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	159	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	3	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	6	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	7	week	week	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	9	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	10	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	12	widely	widely	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	13	accepted	accept	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	14	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	16	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	17	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	18	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	19	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	20	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	21	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	22	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	23	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	24	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	25	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	26	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	27	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	28	still	still	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	29	obtain	obtain	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	30	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	31	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	32	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	33	very	very	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	34	close	close	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	35	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	36	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	160	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	2	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	3	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	4	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	5	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	6	rapid	rapid	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	7	pace	pace	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	9	infectiousness	infectiousness	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	11	captured	capture	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	12	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	13	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	15	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	17	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	21	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	22	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	23	brought	bring	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	24	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	25	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	26	due	due	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	27	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	28	rapidly	rapidly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	29	imposed	impose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	30	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	161	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	1	Moreover	moreover	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	3	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	4	knowledge	knowledge	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	7	SARS	SARS	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	8	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	9	Cov-2	Cov-2	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	10	virus	virus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	12	availability	availability	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	15	medical	medical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	16	care	care	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	17	facilities	facility	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	18	such	such	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	19	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	20	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	21	's	's	POS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	22	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	23	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	24	effective	effective	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	25	treatment	treatment	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	28	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	29	potentially	potentially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	30	lead	lead	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	31	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	32	changes	change	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	33	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	34	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	35	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	36	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	37	γ	γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	38	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	39	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	40	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	41	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	42	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	162	43	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	4	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	5	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	6	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	7	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	8	model	model	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	9	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	10	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	11	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	12	efficiently	efficiently	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	13	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	14	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	15	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	16	scarce	scarce	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	17	environment	environment	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	18	allowing	allow	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	19	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	20	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	21	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	23	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	26	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	27	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	28	well	well	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	163	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	3	section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	5	put	put	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	6	forward	forward	RP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	8	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	10	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	11	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	12	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	13	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	164	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	2	modeling	model	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	4	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	5	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	7	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	9	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	11	Generalized	Generalized	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	12	Autoregressive	Autoregressive	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	13	Score	Score	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	14	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	16	GAS	gas	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	17	hereafter	hereafter	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	19	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	20	encompasses	encompass	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	21	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	22	wide	wide	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	23	range	range	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	25	celebrated	celebrate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	26	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	28	econometrics	econometric	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	29	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	30	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	31	Generalized	Generalized	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	32	Autoregressive	Autoregressive	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	33	Conditional	Conditional	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	34	Heeteroscedasticity	Heeteroscedasticity	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	35	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	36	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	37	GARCH	garch	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	38	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	39	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	40	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	41	variants	variant	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	165	42	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	1	Briefly	briefly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	4	GAS	gas	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	5	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	6	relies	rely	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	7	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	9	intuitive	intuitive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	10	principle	principle	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	12	modeling	model	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	14	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	15	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	17	key	key	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	18	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	20	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	21	autoregressive	autoregressive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	22	manner	manner	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	23	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	24	evolves	evolve	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	25	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	27	direction	direction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	28	implied	imply	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	29	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	31	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	32	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	33	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	34	thereby	thereby	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	35	improving	improve	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	37	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	38	local	local	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	39	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	40	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	41	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	42	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	43	Creal	Creal	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	44	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	45	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	166	46	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	2	2013	2013	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	4	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	6	detailed	detailed	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	7	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	10	GAS	gas	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	11	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	167	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	1	As	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	2	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	4	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	7	GARCH	GARCH	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	8	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	10	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	11	effectively	effectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	12	captures	capture	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	14	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	15	dependence	dependence	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	17	long	long	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	18	lags	lag	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	20	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	21	parsimonious	parsimonious	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	22	yet	yet	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	23	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	24	flexible	flexible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	25	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	168	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	1	Perhaps	perhaps	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	2	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	3	importantly	importantly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	5	since	since	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	6	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	7	admits	admit	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	8	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	9	recursive	recursive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	10	deterministic	deterministic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	11	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	13	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	15	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	16	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	17	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	18	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	19	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	21	computationally	computationally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	22	inexpensive	inexpensive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	23	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	24	estimate	estimate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	169	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	2	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	3	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	4	crucial	crucial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	5	given	give	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	6	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	7	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	8	flexible	flexible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	9	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	10	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	11	evaluated	evaluate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	12	throughout	throughout	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	14	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	17	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	18	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	19	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	21	often	often	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	22	scarce	scarce	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	23	especially	especially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	24	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	26	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	28	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	170	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	1	Consider	consider	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	3	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	4	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	5	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	6	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	7	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	9	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	10	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	11	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	13	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	14	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	15	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	16	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	17	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	171	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	2	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	3	transform	transform	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	4	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	5	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	6	into	into	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	7	logarithmic	logarithmic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	8	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	9	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	10	ensure	ensure	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	11	positivity	positivity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	13	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	14	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	15	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	16	thereby	thereby	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	18	positivity	positivity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	21	predicted	predict	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	22	counts	count	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	23	every	every	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	24	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	25	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	172	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	1	Let	let	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	3	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	4	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	6	tilde	tilde	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	7	denote	denote	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	9	logarithmic	logarithmic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	10	transformations	transformation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	11	asβ	asβ	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	12	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	13	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	14	ln(β	ln(β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	15	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	17	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	18	γ	γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	19	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	20	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	21	ln(γ	ln(γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	22	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	173	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	174	1	andν	andν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	175	1	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	175	2	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	175	3	ln(ν	ln(ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	175	4	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	175	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	175	6	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	176	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	176	2	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	176	3	Time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	176	4	Varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	176	5	Paramaters	Paramaters	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	176	6	-SIRD	-SIRD	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	2	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	3	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	4	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	8	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	9	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	10	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	11	s	s	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	12	1,t	1,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	14	s	s	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	15	2,t	2,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	17	s	s	NNPS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	18	3,t	3,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	19	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	22	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	24	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	25	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	28	joint	joint	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	29	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	177	30	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	1	Since	since	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	3	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	4	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	7	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	8	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	9	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	10	constituted	constitute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	11	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	14	conditionally	conditionally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	16	independent	independent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	17	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	18	processes	process	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	19	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	20	each	each	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	21	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	22	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	23	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	24	derived	derive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	25	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	27	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	28	compartment	compartment	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	178	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	1	Specifically	specifically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	3	let	let	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	4	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	5	1,t	1,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	6	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	7	∂L(∆Ct;βt	∂L(∆Ct;βt	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	179	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	1	∂βt	∂βt	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	3	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	4	2,t	2,t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	5	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	6	∂L(∆Rt;γt	∂L(∆Rt;γt	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	8	∂γt	∂γt	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	9	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	10	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	11	3,t	3,t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	12	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	13	∂L(∆Dt;νt	∂L(∆Dt;νt	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	15	∂νt	∂νt	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	16	denote	denote	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	18	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	19	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	22	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	23	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	24	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	25	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	26	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	27	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	180	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	2	specify	specify	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	3	s	s	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	4	i	i	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	6	t	t	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	7	such	such	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	8	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	10	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	11	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	13	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	14	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	15	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	16	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	17	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	18	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	20	specific	specific	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	21	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	23	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	24	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	26	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	27	modeling	modeling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	28	strategy	strategy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	29	leads	lead	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	30	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	32	following	following	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	33	specification	specification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	34	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	35	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	36	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	37	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	38	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	39	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	40	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	41	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	42	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	43	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	44	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	45	logarithmic	logarithmic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	46	link	link	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	47	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	48	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	49	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	50	2,t	2,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	51	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	52	γ	γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	181	53	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	182	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	182	2	t−1	t−1	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	182	3	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	182	4	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	182	5	3,t	3,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	182	6	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	183	1	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	183	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	184	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	185	1	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	185	2	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	2	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	3	specification	specification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	4	implies	imply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	5	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	6	intuitive	intuitive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	7	updating	updating	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	8	rule	rule	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	9	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	11	sense	sense	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	12	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	14	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	17	logarithmic	logarithmic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	18	form	form	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	20	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	21	updated	update	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	22	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	23	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	24	combination	combination	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	25	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	26	recent	recent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	27	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	28	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	29	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	30	recent	recent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	31	percentage	percentage	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	32	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	33	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	34	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	35	mean	mean	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	186	36	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	2	refer	refer	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	4	Appendix	Appendix	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	5	A	A	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	8	details	detail	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	9	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	10	derivation	derivation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	12	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	13	5	5	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	187	15	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	2	specification	specification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	4	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	5	4	4	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	7	leads	lead	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	8	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	9	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	10	rich	rich	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	11	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	12	both	both	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	13	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	14	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	16	mean	mean	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	19	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	22	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	23	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	188	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	2	enables	enable	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	3	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	4	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	5	capture	capture	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	7	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	10	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	11	accurately	accurately	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	12	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	13	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	14	reflected	reflect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	15	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	16	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	18	prompt	prompt	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	19	response	response	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	22	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	23	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	25	changes	change	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	26	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	28	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	29	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	30	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	31	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	33	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	34	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	35	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	36	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	189	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	2	refer	refer	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	4	Appendix	Appendix	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	5	B.2	B.2	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	8	details	detail	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	9	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	11	properties	property	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	14	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	15	described	describe	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	18	4	4	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	190	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	1	An	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	2	appealing	appealing	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	3	feature	feature	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	6	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	7	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	8	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	11	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	12	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	13	encompasses	encompass	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	15	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	16	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	17	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	18	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	19	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	191	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	2	example	example	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	4	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	5	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	6	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	7	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	8	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	9	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	10	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	11	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	12	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	14	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	15	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	16	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	17	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	18	zero	zero	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	19	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	20	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	22	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	24	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	26	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	27	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	28	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	29	remains	remain	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	30	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	31	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	33	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	34	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	35	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	192	36	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	2	would	would	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	3	indicate	indicate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	6	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	7	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	8	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	9	proved	prove	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	10	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	11	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	12	ineffective	ineffective	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	13	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	14	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	15	does	do	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	16	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	17	lead	lead	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	18	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	19	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	20	systematic	systematic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	21	change	change	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	22	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	24	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	25	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	193	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	1	Similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	2	reasoning	reasoning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	3	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	4	applies	apply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	5	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	6	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	7	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	9	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	10	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	194	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	4	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	6	solid	solid	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	7	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	8	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	9	statistically	statistically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	10	testing	test	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	12	efficiency	efficiency	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	14	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	15	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	16	taking	take	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	18	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	19	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	20	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	195	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	2	display	display	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	4	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	7	underlying	underlying	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	9	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	11	logarithms	logarithm	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	196	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	1	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	4	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	5	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	6	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	7	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	8	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	9	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	10	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	11	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	197	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	3	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	4	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	198	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	2	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	3	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	4	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	5	Table	table	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	6	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	7	indicate	indicate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	8	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	10	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	11	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	12	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	14	diffusion	diffusion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	17	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	18	exhibit	exhibit	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	19	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	20	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	21	behaviour	behaviour	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	199	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	2	all	all	PDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	4	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	7	95	95	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	8	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	9	credible	credible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	10	intervals	interval	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	11	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	13	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	14	joint	joint	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	15	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	16	exclude	exclude	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	18	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	20	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	21	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	200	22	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	1	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	2	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	3	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	4	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	5	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	6	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	7	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	8	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	9	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	10	implying	imply	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	11	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	12	β	β	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	13	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	14	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	15	varies	vary	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	16	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	17	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	201	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	2	same	same	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	3	conclusion	conclusion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	4	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	5	applies	apply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	8	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	9	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	10	γ	γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	11	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	13	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	14	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	15	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	16	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	17	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	18	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	19	considered	consider	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	20	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	21	constant	constant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	22	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	23	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	24	vast	vast	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	25	majority	majority	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	27	studies	study	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	202	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	2	display	display	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	4	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	7	underlying	underlying	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	8	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	9	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	11	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	12	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	14	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	15	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	16	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	17	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	18	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	19	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	21	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	22	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	23	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	24	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	25	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	26	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	27	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	28	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	203	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	3	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	4	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	204	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	2	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	3	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	4	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	5	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	6	have	have	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	7	less	less	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	8	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	9	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	10	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	11	majority	majority	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	13	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	15	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	16	usually	usually	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	17	starts	start	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	18	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	19	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	20	levels	level	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	21	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	22	still	still	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	24	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	25	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	27	recoveries	recovery	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	28	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	29	limited	limited	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	30	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	31	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	32	getting	get	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	33	stabilized	stabilize	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	34	around	around	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	35	some	some	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	36	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	37	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	205	38	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	1	Turkey	Turkey	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	2	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	3	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	4	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	5	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	6	exception	exception	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	7	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	8	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	9	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	10	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	12	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	13	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	15	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	17	April	April	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	18	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	19	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	20	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	21	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	23	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	206	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	1	May.	May	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	2	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	3	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	4	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	6	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	7	coincides	coincide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	8	perfectly	perfectly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	9	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	11	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	12	right	right	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	13	after	after	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	15	peak	peak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	17	active	active	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	18	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	19	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	21	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	24	third	third	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	25	week	week	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	27	April	April	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	207	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	2	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	3	note	note	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	6	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	7	around	around	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	8	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	9	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	10	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	11	rises	rise	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	12	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	13	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	14	result	result	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	16	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	17	rapid	rapid	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	18	change	change	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	208	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	2	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	3	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	4	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	6	improvement	improvement	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	7	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	9	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	10	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	12	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	13	gradual	gradual	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	14	approaching	approach	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	15	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	16	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	17	stable	stable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	19	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	20	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	21	only	only	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	22	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	24	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	25	week	week	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	209	27	May.	May	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	1	When	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	3	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	5	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	6	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	8	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	9	interesting	interesting	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	10	structure	structure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	11	emerges	emerge	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	210	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	2	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	3	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	4	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	6	exception	exception	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	8	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	9	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	11	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	13	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	14	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	15	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	16	smoothly	smoothly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	17	stabilized	stabilize	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	18	around	around	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	19	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	20	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	21	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	211	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	3	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	4	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	6	0.001	0.001	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	7	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	8	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	9	majority	majority	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	11	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	13	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	15	lower	low	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	16	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	17	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	18	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	19	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	20	larger	large	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	21	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	22	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	23	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	24	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	25	reflecting	reflect	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	27	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	28	capability	capability	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	31	health	health	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	32	systems	system	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	34	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	35	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	36	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	37	coping	cope	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	38	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	39	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	40	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	212	41	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	2	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	3	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	5	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	6	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	9	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	11	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	12	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	213	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	1	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	2	seemingly	seemingly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	3	volatile	volatile	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	4	nature	nature	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	7	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	8	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	9	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	10	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	11	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	12	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	13	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	14	minuscule	minuscule	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	15	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	16	prone	prone	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	17	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	18	fluctuations	fluctuation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	19	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	20	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	214	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	2	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	5	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	6	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	8	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	9	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	12	central	central	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	13	importance	importance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	14	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	15	tracing	trace	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	17	efficacy	efficacy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	20	containment	containment	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	21	efforts	effort	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	215	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	2	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	3	column	column	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	6	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	7	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	8	displays	display	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	9	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	10	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	11	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	12	discuss	discuss	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	13	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	14	findings	finding	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	15	country	country	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	16	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	17	country	country	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	216	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	2	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	4	although	although	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	6	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	7	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	9	decreased	decrease	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	10	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	11	record	record	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	12	high	high	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	13	levels	level	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	14	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	15	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	16	around	around	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	17	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	18	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	19	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	21	still	still	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	22	larger	large	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	23	than	than	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	24	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	217	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	1	Even	even	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	2	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	3	crucially	crucially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	6	drop	drop	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	7	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	8	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	9	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	10	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	11	just	just	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	12	above	above	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	13	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	14	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	16	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	18	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	20	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	21	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	22	sudden	sudden	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	23	increase	increase	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	24	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	26	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	28	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	29	rather	rather	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	30	than	than	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	31	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	32	decrease	decrease	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	33	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	34	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	35	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	36	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	218	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	2	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	5	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	6	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	7	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	8	fallen	fall	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	9	below	below	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	11	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	13	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	14	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	16	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	18	May	May	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	19	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	20	remained	remain	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	21	there	there	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	22	since	since	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	23	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	219	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	3	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	4	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	5	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	6	take	take	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	8	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	9	successfully	successfully	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	10	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	11	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	220	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	2	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	5	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	6	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	7	fell	fall	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	8	below	below	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	9	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	10	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	11	early	early	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	12	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	13	mid	mid	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	221	14	April	April	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	1	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	2	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	3	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	4	exceeded	exceed	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	5	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	6	critical	critical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	7	threshold	threshold	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	8	starting	start	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	9	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	11	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	12	week	week	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	14	May	May	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	15	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	16	still	still	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	17	remains	remain	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	18	above	above	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	19	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	222	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	1	As	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	2	discussed	discuss	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	3	earlier	early	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	5	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	7	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	8	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	10	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	11	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	12	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	14	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	15	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	16	large	large	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	17	extent	extent	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	18	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	19	reflecting	reflect	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	21	potential	potential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	22	threat	threat	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	23	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	25	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	26	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	223	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	2	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	3	pattern	pattern	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	5	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	6	observed	observe	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	7	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	9	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	10	repeat	repeat	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	12	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	13	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	14	adding	add	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	15	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	16	more	more	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	17	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	19	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	20	dropping	drop	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	21	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	22	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	23	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	25	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	28	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	29	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	30	recursively	recursively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	224	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	2	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	3	three	three	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	4	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	5	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	6	setting	set	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	7	M	M	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	8	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	9	10	10	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	11	20	20	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	13	30	30	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	15	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	16	starting	start	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	17	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	18	ten	ten	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	19	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	21	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	22	up	up	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	23	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	24	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	25	month	month	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	27	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	225	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	3	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	5	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	8	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	10	expanding	expand	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	11	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	12	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	13	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	14	up	up	RP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	15	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	16	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	17	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	18	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	19	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	21	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	22	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	23	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	24	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	25	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	26	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	27	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	226	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	2	display	display	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	4	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	7	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	10	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	11	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	13	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	14	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	16	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	17	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	20	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	21	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	22	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	23	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	24	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	25	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	26	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	27	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	227	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	3	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	4	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	228	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	1	When	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	3	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	5	rolling	rolling	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	6	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	7	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	8	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	10	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	11	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	12	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	13	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	14	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	16	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	17	observe	observe	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	18	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	19	there	there	EX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	21	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	22	trade	trade	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	23	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	24	off	off	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	25	between	between	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	27	speed	speed	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	28	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	29	reaction	reaction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	30	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	32	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	34	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	35	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	37	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	38	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	39	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	40	expected	expect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	229	41	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	1	When	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	3	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	4	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	6	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	7	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	8	30	30	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	9	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	11	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	12	evolve	evolve	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	13	quite	quite	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	14	smoothly	smoothly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	15	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	16	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	17	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	18	react	react	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	19	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	21	rapid	rapid	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	22	changes	change	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	23	promptly	promptly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	230	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	3	contrary	contrary	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	5	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	6	10	10	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	7	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	9	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	10	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	12	used	use	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	13	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	14	adjust	adjust	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	15	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	17	new	new	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	18	conditions	condition	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	19	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	20	quickly	quickly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	231	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	1	When	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	3	focus	focus	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	4	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	6	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	7	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	9	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	10	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	12	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	13	observe	observe	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	14	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	16	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	17	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	18	accommodate	accommodate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	19	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	21	newly	newly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	22	changing	change	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	23	conditions	condition	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	24	swiftly	swiftly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	26	ahead	ahead	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	29	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	30	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	31	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	32	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	33	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	34	regardless	regardless	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	35	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	37	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	38	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	232	39	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	2	addition	addition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	4	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	5	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	6	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	7	react	react	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	8	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	10	abrupt	abrupt	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	11	changes	change	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	12	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	233	15	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	234	1	Specifically	specifically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	234	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	234	3	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	234	4	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	235	1	ob-	ob-	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	1	Here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	3	do	do	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	4	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	5	discuss	discuss	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	7	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	8	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	9	20	20	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	10	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	11	30	30	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	12	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	14	rolling	roll	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	15	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	16	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	17	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	19	fixed	fix	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	20	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	21	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	22	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	23	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	24	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	25	perform	perform	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	26	worse	bad	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	27	than	than	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	29	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	30	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	31	10	10	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	32	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	34	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	35	size	size	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	36	used	use	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	37	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	38	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	236	39	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	4	explore	explore	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	5	whether	whether	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	6	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	7	capability	capability	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	10	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	11	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	12	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	13	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	14	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	15	reflecting	reflect	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	17	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	21	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	22	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	23	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	24	manner	manner	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	25	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	26	proved	prove	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	27	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	28	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	29	useful	useful	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	30	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	31	forecasting	forecast	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	33	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	34	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	35	active	active	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	36	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	237	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	2	would	would	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	3	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	4	indicate	indicate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	5	whether	whether	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	7	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	8	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	9	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	10	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	11	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	12	reflects	reflect	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	14	current	current	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	15	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	18	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	20	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	21	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	22	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	23	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	24	manner	manner	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	238	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	2	therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	3	perform	perform	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	4	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	5	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	7	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	8	forecasting	forecasting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	9	exercise	exercise	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	10	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	11	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	12	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	13	recursive	recursive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	14	estima	estima	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	15	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	16	tions	tion	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	19	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	20	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	22	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	24	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	25	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	26	4	4	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	27	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	28	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	29	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	31	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	32	available	available	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	33	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	34	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	35	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	239	36	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	1	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	3	perform	perform	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	4	h	h	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	5	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	6	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	8	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	10	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	240	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	1	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	2	7−day	7−day	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	3	ahead	ahead	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	4	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	6	active	active	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	7	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	9	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	241	10	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	242	1	t+h	t+h	UH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	242	2	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	2	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	4	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	5	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	6	third	third	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	9	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	10	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	11	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	13	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	14	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	15	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	16	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	17	expand	expand	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	19	window	window	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	20	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	21	adding	add	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	22	one	one	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	23	more	more	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	24	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	25	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	26	repeat	repeat	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	28	procedure	procedure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	243	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	2	roughly	roughly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	3	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	4	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	5	at	at	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	6	least	least	RBS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	7	40	40	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	8	days	day	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	10	evaluation	evaluation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	11	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	12	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	13	each	each	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	14	country	country	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	244	15	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	2	display	display	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	4	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	5	involving	involve	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	6	RMSFEs	rmsfe	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	9	competing	compete	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	10	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	11	relative	relative	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	12	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	13	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	14	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	15	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	16	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	17	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	18	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	19	4	4	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	245	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	3	Table	Table	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	4	4	4	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	246	8	 	 	_SP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	247	1	Assumption	assumption	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	247	2	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	2	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	3	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	4	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	5	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	6	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	7	always	always	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	8	recover	recover	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	10	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	11	thus	thus	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	13	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	14	do	do	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	15	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	16	switch	switch	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	17	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	19	state	state	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	21	'	'	``
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	22	death	death	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	23	'	'	''
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	24	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	25	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	26	D	d	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	27	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	248	28	=	=	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	249	1	D	D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	249	2	*	*	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	249	3	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	249	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	2	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	3	assumption	assumption	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	4	implies	imply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	5	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	7	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	8	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	9	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	11	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	12	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	13	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	14	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	15	without	without	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	16	symptoms	symptom	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	17	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	18	identical	identical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	250	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	2	assumption	assumption	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	4	obviously	obviously	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	5	subject	subject	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	6	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	7	doubt	doubt	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	9	however	however	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	11	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	12	saves	save	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	13	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	14	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	15	extra	extra	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	16	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	17	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	18	calibrate	calibrate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	251	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	1	These	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	2	assumptions	assumption	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	3	serve	serve	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	4	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	6	rough	rough	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	7	approximation	approximation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	8	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	10	entire	entire	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	11	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	12	without	without	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	13	deep	deep	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	14	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	15	insight	insight	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	17	therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	19	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	20	outputs	output	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	21	should	should	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	22	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	23	taken	take	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	24	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	25	caution	caution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	252	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	1	Using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	2	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	3	assumptions	assumption	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	6	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	7	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	8	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	10	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	11	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	14	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	15	numbers	number	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	16	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	17	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	18	written	write	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	19	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	20	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	21	∆I	∆I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	22	*	*	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	23	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	253	24	=	=	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	1	∆It	∆it	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	3	1−δt	1−δt	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	5	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	6	∆R	∆R	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	7	*	*	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	8	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	254	9	=	=	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	255	1	∆Rt	∆Rt	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	255	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	255	3	1−δt	1−δt	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	255	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	255	5	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	2	key	key	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	3	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	4	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	5	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	6	new	new	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	7	set	set	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	9	equations	equation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	11	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	13	observed	observed	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	14	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	16	deaths	death	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	17	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	18	identical	identical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	19	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	21	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	22	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	23	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	25	third	third	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	26	assumption	assumption	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	27	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	28	holds	hold	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	256	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	4	turn	turn	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	6	prevents	prevent	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	8	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	10	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	11	who	who	WP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	13	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	14	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	15	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	16	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	17	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	18	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	19	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	21	1/(1	1/(1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	22	−	−	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	23	δ	δ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	24	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	26	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	28	final	final	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	29	equation	equation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	30	suggests	suggest	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	257	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	4	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	7	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	9	differs	differ	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	10	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	12	counterpart	counterpart	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	13	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	15	previous	previous	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	16	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	17	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	18	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	19	observed	observe	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	20	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	21	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	22	assumed	assume	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	23	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	24	represent	represent	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	26	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	27	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	258	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	3	source	source	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	5	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	6	might	may	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	7	suffice	suffice	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	8	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	10	identification	identification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	13	δ	δ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	14	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	15	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	16	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	17	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	18	note	note	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	19	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	21	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	23	deaths	death	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	24	constitutes	constitute	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	25	only	only	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	26	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	27	minuscule	minuscule	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	28	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	31	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	32	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	34	susceptible	susceptible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	35	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	259	36	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	1	To	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	2	enhance	enhance	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	4	identification	identification	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	6	δ	δ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	7	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	8	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	9	exploit	exploit	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	11	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	12	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	14	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	15	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	17	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	18	following	follow	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	19	Grewelle	Grewelle	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	21	De	De	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	22	Leo	Leo	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	23	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	24	2020	2020	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	260	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	1	Briefly	briefly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	4	underlying	underlying	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	5	idea	idea	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	6	stems	stem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	7	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	9	fact	fact	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	10	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	12	detection	detection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	15	infections	infection	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	16	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	18	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	19	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	20	would	would	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	21	improve	improve	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	22	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	24	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	25	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	27	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	261	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	2	that	that	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	3	sense	sense	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	6	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	8	tested	test	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	9	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	10	among	among	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	12	population	population	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	13	should	should	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	14	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	15	related	relate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	16	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	18	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	20	reported	report	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	21	infections	infection	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	22	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	24	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	25	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	27	infections	infection	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	262	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	2	leads	lead	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	5	following	following	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	6	expression	expression	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	263	7	Here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	1	ρ	ρ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	5	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	7	tests	test	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	8	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	9	positive	positive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	10	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	11	among	among	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	12	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	13	tests	test	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	264	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	1	With	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	3	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	4	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	6	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	7	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	9	population	population	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	10	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	11	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	12	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	13	expected	expect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	14	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	15	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	16	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	18	therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	19	δ	δ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	20	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	21	approaches	approach	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	22	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	23	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	265	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	3	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	6	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	7	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	9	concentrated	concentrate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	10	only	only	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	11	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	12	symptomatic	symptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	13	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	14	then	then	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	15	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	16	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	17	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	18	close	close	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	19	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	20	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	21	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	22	δ	δ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	23	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	24	approaches	approach	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	25	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	26	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	27	lower	lower	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	28	bound	bind	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	29	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	30	captured	capture	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	31	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	33	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	34	exp(−k	exp(−k	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	36	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	37	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	38	functional	functional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	39	form	form	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	40	admits	admit	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	41	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	42	exponential	exponential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	43	decay	decay	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	266	44	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	2	display	display	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	4	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	7	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	9	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	10	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	12	6	6	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	14	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	16	7	7	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	17	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	18	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	19	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	20	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	21	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	22	selected	select	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	23	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	267	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	1	Compared	compare	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	2	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	3	previous	previous	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	4	sections	section	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	6	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	7	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	8	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	10	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	12	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	13	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	14	excluded	exclude	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	15	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	17	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	18	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	19	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	20	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	21	do	do	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	22	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	23	provide	provide	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	24	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	25	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	26	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	27	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	28	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	29	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	30	frequency	frequency	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	268	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	1	[	[	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	2	Insert	Insert	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	3	Figure	Figure	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	4	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	5	about	about	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	6	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	269	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	1	As	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	2	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	3	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	4	seen	see	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	5	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	7	graphs	graph	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	8	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	10	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	11	row	row	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	13	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	14	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	16	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	17	observe	observe	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	18	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	19	sizable	sizable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	20	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	23	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	24	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	25	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	26	do	do	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	27	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	28	show	show	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	29	symptoms	symptom	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	30	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	31	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	32	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	33	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	34	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	35	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	36	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	37	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	38	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	270	39	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	3	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	5	smallest	small	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	8	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	9	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	11	starting	start	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	12	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	13	15	15	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	14	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	15	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	17	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	20	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	21	decreasing	decrease	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	22	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	23	4	4	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	24	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	25	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	26	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	27	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	28	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	29	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	30	largest	large	JJS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	31	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	32	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	33	starting	start	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	34	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	35	50	50	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	36	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	37	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	38	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	39	infected	infect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	40	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	41	decreasing	decrease	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	42	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	43	30	30	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	44	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	45	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	46	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	271	47	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	2	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	3	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	4	Turkey	Turkey	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	7	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	9	about	about	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	10	20	20	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	11	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	13	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	14	declines	decline	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	15	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	16	about	about	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	17	10	10	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	18	%	%	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	20	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	272	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	2	temporary	temporary	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	3	increases	increase	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	4	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	6	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	8	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	9	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	10	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	12	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	15	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	16	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	17	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	18	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	20	efforts	effort	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	22	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	23	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	24	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	25	increase	increase	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	26	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	27	testing	testing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	28	capacity	capacity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	29	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	30	April	April	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	273	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	3	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	6	speed	speed	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	8	increase	increase	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	9	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	11	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	13	positive	positive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	14	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	15	falls	fall	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	16	behind	behind	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	18	speed	speed	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	20	increase	increase	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	21	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	23	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	25	tests	test	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	26	leading	lead	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	27	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	28	'	'	''
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	29	spuriously	spuriously	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	30	'	'	``
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	31	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	32	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	34	δ	δ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	35	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	274	36	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	1	However	however	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	3	once	once	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	5	capacity	capacity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	7	reached	reach	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	8	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	9	observe	observe	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	10	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	11	monotonically	monotonically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	12	decreasing	decrease	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	13	pattern	pattern	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	14	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	16	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	18	δ	δ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	19	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	20	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	21	expected	expect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	275	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	2	impact	impact	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	5	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	6	sizable	sizable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	7	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	10	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	11	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	12	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	13	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	14	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	15	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	16	seen	see	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	17	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	19	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	20	column	column	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	22	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	23	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	276	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	1	While	while	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	3	pattern	pattern	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	6	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	9	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	10	remains	remain	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	11	unaffected	unaffected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	12	there	there	EX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	13	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	14	some	some	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	15	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	16	shifts	shift	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	17	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	18	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	19	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	20	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	21	seem	seem	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	22	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	23	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	24	diminishing	diminish	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	25	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	26	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	277	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	2	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	3	observe	observe	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	4	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	5	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	6	shifts	shift	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	9	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	10	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	11	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	13	albeit	albeit	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	14	limited	limit	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	15	compared	compare	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	16	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	17	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	18	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	278	19	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	1	These	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	2	effects	effect	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	3	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	4	further	further	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	5	aggravated	aggravate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	6	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	8	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	9	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	10	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	11	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	12	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	14	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	17	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	18	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	19	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	21	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	23	resolution	resolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	279	24	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	3	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	5	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	6	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	7	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	8	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	10	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	11	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	12	differs	differ	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	13	considerably	considerably	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	14	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	16	earlier	early	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	17	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	18	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	19	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	21	reported	report	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	22	numbers	number	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	23	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	25	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	28	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	280	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	2	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	3	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	4	converge	converge	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	5	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	7	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	8	figures	figure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	9	mount	mount	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	10	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	11	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	12	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	13	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	14	have	have	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	15	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	16	little	little	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	17	effect	effect	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	18	after	after	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	20	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	21	half	half	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	24	samples	sample	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	281	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	3	under	under	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	4	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	5	assumptions	assumption	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	8	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	9	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	10	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	11	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	12	official	official	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	13	statistics	statistic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	14	reflects	reflect	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	15	progressively	progressively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	16	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	17	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	18	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	20	actual	actual	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	21	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	282	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	2	world	world	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	4	struggling	struggle	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	5	heavily	heavily	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	6	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	7	mitigate	mitigate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	9	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	11	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	12	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	14	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	15	so	so	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	16	far	far	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	17	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	18	devastating	devastating	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	19	effects	effect	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	20	both	both	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	21	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	22	humanitarian	humanitarian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	23	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	24	economic	economic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	25	point	point	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	27	view	view	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	283	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	1	Countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	2	have	have	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	3	been	be	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	4	imposing	impose	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	5	various	various	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	6	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	7	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	8	fight	fight	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	10	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	11	ranging	range	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	12	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	13	partial	partial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	14	curfew	curfew	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	15	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	16	full	full	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	17	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	18	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	19	lower	lower	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	21	transmission	transmission	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	284	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	1	These	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	2	measures	measure	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	3	supposedly	supposedly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	4	pave	pave	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	6	way	way	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	7	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	9	normalization	normalization	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	11	economies	economy	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	13	reopening	reopen	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	14	policies	policy	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	15	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	16	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	17	started	start	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	18	since	since	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	20	early	early	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	21	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	22	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	23	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	24	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	285	25	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	1	Health	health	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	2	systems	system	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	3	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	4	overloaded	overloaded	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	5	intensive	intensive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	6	care	care	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	7	units	unit	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	8	lead	lead	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	9	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	10	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	11	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	12	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	14	number	number	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	16	recoveries	recovery	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	17	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	18	well	well	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	19	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	20	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	21	death	death	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	22	tolls	toll	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	23	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	24	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	25	course	course	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	28	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	286	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	1	Additionally	additionally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	3	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	4	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	5	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	6	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	7	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	9	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	10	start	start	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	11	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	12	experience	experience	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	13	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	14	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	15	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	18	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	19	after	after	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	20	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	21	easing	easing	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	22	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	23	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	24	first	first	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	25	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	287	26	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	4	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	5	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	7	workhorse	workhorse	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	8	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	9	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	10	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	13	ultimately	ultimately	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	15	key	key	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	16	statistics	statistic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	19	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	20	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	21	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	23	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	24	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	26	change	change	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	27	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	28	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	29	due	due	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	30	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	32	change	change	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	33	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	34	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	35	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	36	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	288	37	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	2	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	3	paper	paper	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	6	extend	extend	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	8	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	9	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	10	allowing	allow	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	11	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	12	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	13	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	14	structural	structural	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	15	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	16	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	17	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	19	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	20	measurement	measurement	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	23	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	26	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	289	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	2	modeling	modeling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	3	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	4	falls	fall	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	5	into	into	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	7	class	class	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	9	generalized	generalized	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	10	autoregressive	autoregressive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	11	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	12	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	14	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	16	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	17	evolve	evolve	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	18	deterministically	deterministically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	19	according	accord	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	20	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	21	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	22	autoregressive	autoregressive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	23	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	24	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	26	direction	direction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	27	implied	imply	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	28	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	29	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	30	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	31	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	290	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	4	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	5	approach	approach	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	6	permits	permit	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	7	quite	quite	PDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	8	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	9	flexible	flexible	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	10	yet	yet	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	11	parsimonious	parsimonious	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	13	statistically	statistically	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	14	coherent	coherent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	15	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	16	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	17	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	18	operate	operate	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	20	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	21	scarce	scarce	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	22	environments	environment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	23	easily	easily	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	24	due	due	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	25	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	26	low	low	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	27	computational	computational	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	28	cost	cost	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	291	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	2	demonstrate	demonstrate	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	4	potential	potential	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	7	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	8	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	9	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	10	daily	daily	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	11	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	12	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	13	seven	seven	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	14	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	15	ranging	range	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	16	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	17	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	18	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	19	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	20	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	21	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	22	have	have	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	23	distinct	distinct	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	25	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	26	over	over	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	28	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	29	6	6	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	30	months	month	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	292	31	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	2	results	result	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	3	show	show	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	6	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	7	framework	framework	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	8	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	9	nicely	nicely	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	10	track	track	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	12	stance	stance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	15	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	16	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	17	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	18	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	19	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	293	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	2	all	all	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	3	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	6	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	7	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	9	reduced	reduce	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	10	considerably	considerably	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	11	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	12	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	13	differential	differential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	14	speed	speed	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	15	depending	depend	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	16	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	18	success	success	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	20	containing	contain	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	22	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	294	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	2	findings	finding	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	3	suggest	suggest	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	4	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	5	there	there	EX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	7	considerable	considerable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	8	fluctuation	fluctuation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	9	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	10	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	12	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	13	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	15	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	16	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	17	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	18	get	get	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	19	more	more	RBR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	20	stable	stable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	21	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	22	June	June	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	295	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	2	US	US	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	3	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	4	Russia	Russia	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	5	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	6	Brazil	Brazil	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	8	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	9	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	11	above	above	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	13	critical	critical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	14	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	16	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	17	implying	imply	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	18	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	19	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	20	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	21	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	22	unable	unable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	23	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	24	contain	contain	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	26	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	27	yet	yet	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	296	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	1	Our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	2	findings	finding	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	3	confirm	confirm	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	5	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	6	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	7	Iran	Iran	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	8	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	9	South	South	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	10	Korea	Korea	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	11	experience	experience	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	13	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	14	wave	wave	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	17	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	297	18	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	2	further	further	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	3	extend	extend	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	5	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	7	including	include	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	9	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	10	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	11	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	12	do	do	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	13	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	14	show	show	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	15	symptoms	symptom	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	17	therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	18	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	19	not	not	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	20	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	298	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	2	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	3	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	4	have	have	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	5	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	6	sizable	sizable	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	7	impact	impact	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	8	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	10	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	11	level	level	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	13	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	14	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	15	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	17	onset	onset	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	20	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	21	but	but	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	22	converge	converge	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	23	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	24	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	25	levels	level	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	26	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	28	earlier	early	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	29	findings	finding	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	30	towards	towards	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	32	end	end	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	33	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	34	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	35	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	299	36	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	300	1	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	2	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	4	δ	δ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	5	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	7	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	8	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	10	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	11	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	13	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	14	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	15	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	16	R	R	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	17	0,t	0,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	18	when	when	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	19	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	20	infected	infected	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	21	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	22	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	23	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	24	considered	consider	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	25	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	301	27	sample	sample	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	2	graphs	graph	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	3	show	show	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	5	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	8	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	9	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	10	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	12	δt	δt	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	15	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	16	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	17	asymptomatic	asymptomatic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	18	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	19	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	20	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	21	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	22	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	23	βt	βt	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	24	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	26	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	27	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	28	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	29	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	30	γt	γt	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	31	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	33	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	34	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	35	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	36	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	37	νt	νt	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	38	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	39	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	40	mortality	mortality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	41	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	42	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	43	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	44	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	45	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	46	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	47	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	48	R0,t	R0,t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	49	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	50	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	51	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	52	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	53	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	54	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	55	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	56	introduced	introduce	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	57	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	58	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	59	4	4	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	60	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	61	displayed	display	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	62	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	63	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	64	blue	blue	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	65	line	line	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	66	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	67	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	68	TVP	TVP	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	69	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	70	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	71	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	72	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	73	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	74	takes	take	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	75	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	76	unreported	unreported	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	77	cases	case	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	78	into	into	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	79	account	account	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	80	introduced	introduce	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	81	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	82	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	83	6	6	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	84	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	85	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	86	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	87	7	7	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	88	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	89	displayed	display	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	90	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	91	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	92	red	red	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	93	line	line	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	302	94	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	303	1	Let	let	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	303	2	f	f	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	303	3	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	2	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	3	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	4	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	5	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	304	7	,	,	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	1	f	f	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	2	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	3	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	4	∆R	∆R	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	5	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	6	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	7	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	9	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	10	f	f	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	305	11	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	306	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	306	2	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	306	3	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	1	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	2	t−1	t−1	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	4	denote	denote	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	6	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	7	probability	probability	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	8	density	density	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	9	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	10	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	11	∆C	∆c	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	12	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	13	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	14	∆R	∆r	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	15	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	16	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	17	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	18	t	t	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	19	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	20	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	22	information	information	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	23	set	set	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	24	at	at	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	25	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	26	period	period	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	27	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	28	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	29	Ω	Ω	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	30	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	31	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	32	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	307	33	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	1	Assuming	assume	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	3	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	5	independence	independence	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	6	among	among	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	7	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	8	variables	variable	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	11	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	12	joint	joint	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	13	probability	probability	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	14	density	density	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	15	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	16	could	could	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	17	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	18	written	write	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	19	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	20	f	f	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	22	∆C	∆c	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	23	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	24	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	25	∆R	∆r	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	26	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	308	27	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	309	1	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	309	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	309	3	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	309	4	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	309	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	310	1	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	311	1	f	f	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	311	2	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	312	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	312	2	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	312	3	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	312	4	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	312	5	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	312	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	313	1	f	f	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	313	2	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	314	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	314	2	∆R	∆r	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	314	3	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	314	4	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	314	5	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	314	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	315	1	f	f	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	315	2	3	3	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	2	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	3	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	4	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	5	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	316	7	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	2	assume	assume	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	3	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	4	these	these	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	5	marginal	marginal	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	6	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	7	follow	follow	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	8	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	9	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	10	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	11	arrival	arrival	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	12	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	13	specified	specify	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	14	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	15	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	16	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	17	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	18	equation	equation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	20	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	317	22	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	1	Thus	thus	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	4	joint	joint	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	5	density	density	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	7	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	8	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	11	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	12	2,t	2,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	13	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	14	γ	γ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	318	15	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	319	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	319	2	t−1	t−1	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	319	3	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	319	4	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	319	5	3,t	3,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	319	6	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	320	1	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	320	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	321	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	322	1	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	322	2	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	2	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	3	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	5	denoted	denote	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	6	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	7	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	8	1,t	1,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	10	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	11	2,t	2,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	13	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	14	3,t	3,t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	15	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	16	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	17	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	18	written	write	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	19	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	20	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	21	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	23	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	24	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	26	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	27	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	28	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	29	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	30	scaling	scaling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	31	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	323	32	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	1	Variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	2	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	4	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	5	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	7	∇	∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	8	1,t	1,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	10	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	11	example	example	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	13	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	14	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	15	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	16	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	17	As	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	18	E[(∆C	E[(∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	19	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	20	−	−	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	21	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	22	1,t	1,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	24	2	2	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	25	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	26	refers	refer	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	27	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	29	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	30	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	31	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	32	distributed	distribute	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	33	random	random	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	34	variable	variable	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	35	∆C	∆c	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	36	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	37	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	38	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	39	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	40	identical	identical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	41	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	42	λ	λ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	43	1,t	1,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	324	44	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	1	Hence	hence	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	4	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	5	expression	expression	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	8	Similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	9	computations	computation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	10	lead	lead	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	11	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	13	variances	variance	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	14	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	15	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	16	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	17	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	18	∆R	∆r	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	19	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	20	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	21	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	22	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	23	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	24	V	V	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	25	ar(∇	ar(∇	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	26	2,t	2,t	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	27	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	28	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	29	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	325	30	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	1	Scaling	scale	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	3	A.2	a.2	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	5	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	6	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	7	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	8	A.4	A.4	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	10	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	12	A.5	A.5	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	15	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	16	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	17	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	18	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	19	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	20	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	21	written	write	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	22	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	23	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	24	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	25	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	26	final	final	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	27	step	step	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	28	includes	include	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	29	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	30	division	division	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	31	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	32	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	33	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	34	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	35	functions	function	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	36	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	37	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	38	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	39	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	40	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	41	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	42	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	43	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	44	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	45	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	46	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	47	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	48	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	49	obtain	obtain	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	50	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	51	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	52	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	53	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	54	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	55	terms	term	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	56	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	57	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	58	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	59	logarithmic	logarithmic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	60	transformations	transformation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	61	applying	apply	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	62	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	63	chain	chain	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	64	rule	rule	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	326	65	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	2	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	3	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	4	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	5	forβ	forβ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	6	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	7	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	8	log(β	log(β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	9	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	12	Combining	combine	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	14	A.7	a.7	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	16	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	17	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	19	SIRD	SIRD	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	20	equations	equation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	21	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	23	final	final	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	24	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	25	becomes	become	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	26	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	27	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	28	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	29	assume	assume	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	30	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	31	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	32	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	33	values	value	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	34	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	35	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	36	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	37	S	S	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	38	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	39	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	40	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	41	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	42	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	43	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	44	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	45	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	46	D	D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	47	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	48	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	49	known	know	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	327	50	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	3	sake	sake	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	5	simplicity	simplicity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	8	assume	assume	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	9	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	10	S	s	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	11	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	12	≈	≈	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	13	N	N	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	328	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	2	focus	focus	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	3	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	5	general	general	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	6	form	form	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	7	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	8	equations	equation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	9	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	10	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	11	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	12	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	13	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	14	∼	∼	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	15	P	p	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	16	oisson(λI	oisson(λI	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	17	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	19	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	20	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	21	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	22	β	β	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	23	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	24	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	25	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	26	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	27	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	28	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	29	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	30	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	31	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	32	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	33	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	34	∆R	∆r	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	35	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	36	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	37	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	38	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	39	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	40	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	329	41	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	2	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	3	mean	mean	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	4	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	6	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	7	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	9	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	10	distributed	distribute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	11	variables	variable	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	12	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	13	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	14	resulting	result	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	15	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	16	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	17	stationary	stationary	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	18	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	20	underlying	underlying	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	21	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	22	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	23	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	24	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	25	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	26	stationary	stationary	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	330	27	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	4	turn	turn	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	5	depends	depend	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	6	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	8	basic	basic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	9	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	10	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	12	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	13	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	331	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	1	To	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	2	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	3	this	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	6	first	first	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	7	start	start	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	8	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	9	∆I	∆I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	10	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	332	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	4	difference	difference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	5	equation	equation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	6	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	7	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	8	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	9	takes	take	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	11	form	form	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	12	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	13	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	15	last	last	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	16	equation	equation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	17	uses	use	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	19	definition	definition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	20	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	21	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	22	basic	basic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	23	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	24	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	26	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	27	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	28	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	29	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	30	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	31	ratio	ratio	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	32	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	33	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	34	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	35	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	36	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	37	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	38	resolution	resolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	39	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	333	40	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	2	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	3	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	4	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	5	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	6	unity	unity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	7	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	8	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	9	β	β	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	11	positive	positive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	14	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	15	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	16	explosive	explosive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	17	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	18	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	19	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	20	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	21	progress	progress	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	22	exponentially	exponentially	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	334	23	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	1	On	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	3	other	other	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	5	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	6	if	if	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	7	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	8	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	9	falls	fall	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	10	below	below	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	11	unity	unity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	12	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	14	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	15	becomes	become	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	16	stationary	stationary	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	335	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	2	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	3	track	track	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	4	down	down	RP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	6	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	7	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	8	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	10	starting	starting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	11	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	12	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	13	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	14	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	336	15	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	337	1	Let	let	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	337	2	π	π	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	337	3	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	337	4	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	337	5	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	337	6	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	1	β(1	β(1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	2	−	−	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	3	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	4	−1	−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	5	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	338	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	339	1	E[I	E[I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	339	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	339	3	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	339	4	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	340	1	π	π	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	1	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	2	I	I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	3	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	4	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	5	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	6	B.11	b.11	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	341	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	1	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	2	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	4	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	5	condition	condition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	7	known	know	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	9	otherwise	otherwise	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	10	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	12	replaced	replace	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	13	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	14	E[I	E[I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	15	0	0	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	16	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	342	17	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	3	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	5	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	6	use	use	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	7	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	8	similar	similar	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	9	recursion	recursion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	343	10	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	2	start	start	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	3	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	4	computing	compute	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	5	V	V	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	6	ar(I	ar(I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	7	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	8	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	9	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	344	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	1	By	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	3	law	law	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	5	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	6	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	7	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	8	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	9	forward	forward	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	10	iteration	iteration	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	13	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	14	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	15	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	16	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	17	computed	compute	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	18	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	19	V	V	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	20	ar(I	ar(I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	21	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	22	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	345	23	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	346	1	β(1	β(1	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	347	1	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	347	2	R	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	347	3	−1	−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	347	4	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	347	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	348	1	E[I	E[I	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	349	1	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	349	2	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	1	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	2	π	π	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	3	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	4	V	V	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	5	ar(I	ar(I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	6	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	9	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	350	10	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	1	In	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	2	case	case	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	4	initial	initial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	5	condition	condition	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	7	known	know	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	8	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	10	second	second	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	11	term	term	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	12	drops	drop	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	351	13	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	4	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	5	use	use	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	7	B.11	b.11	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	9	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	11	B.13	B.13	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	14	construction	construction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	17	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	18	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	19	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	20	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	21	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	22	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	23	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	24	V	V	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	25	ar(Y	ar(y	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	26	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	27	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	352	28	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	353	1	λE[I	λE[I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	353	2	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	353	3	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	1	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	2	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	3	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	4	V	v	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	5	ar(I	ar(I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	6	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	354	8	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	355	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	355	2	B.14	b.14	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	355	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	2	common	common	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	3	drawback	drawback	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	6	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	7	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	8	involves	involve	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	9	variables	variable	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	10	assumed	assume	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	11	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	12	follow	follow	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	13	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	14	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	15	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	16	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	17	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	18	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	19	mean	mean	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	21	assumed	assume	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	22	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	23	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	24	identical	identical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	25	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	26	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	27	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	356	28	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	1	However	however	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	3	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	4	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	5	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	6	seen	see	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	7	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	8	above	above	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	9	derivations	derivation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	10	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	12	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	14	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	15	random	random	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	16	variable	variable	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	17	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	18	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	20	greater	great	JJR
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	21	than	than	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	22	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	23	expected	expect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	24	value	value	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	25	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	26	i.e	i.e	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	27	V	v	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	28	ar[Y	ar[y	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	29	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	30	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	31	>	>	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	32	E[Y	E[Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	33	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	34	]	]	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	357	35	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	4	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	5	allows	allow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	7	overdispersion	overdispersion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	8	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	10	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	358	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	1	As	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	2	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	4	previous	previous	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	5	section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	6	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	8	focus	focus	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	9	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	11	general	general	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	12	form	form	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	14	equations	equation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	15	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	16	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	17	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	18	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	19	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	20	∼	∼	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	21	P	P	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	22	oisson(λ	oisson(λ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	23	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	25	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	26	λ	λ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	27	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	28	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	359	29	Ψ	ψ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	360	1	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	2	t−1	t−1	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	3	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	4	Ψ	ψ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	5	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	6	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	7	β	β	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	8	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	10	γ	γ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	11	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	12	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	13	ν	ν	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	14	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	15	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	16	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	17	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	18	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	19	∆C	∆C	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	20	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	21	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	22	∆R	∆r	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	23	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	24	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	25	∆D	∆D	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	26	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	27	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	28	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	361	29	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	2	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	3	W	w	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	4	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	5	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	6	log(λ	log(λ	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	7	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	362	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	1	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	2	log(Ψ	log(Ψ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	3	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	5	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	6	log(I	log(I	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	7	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	363	9	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	1	θ	θ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	2	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	3	+	+	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	4	K	k	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	5	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	6	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	7	insure	insure	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	8	positivity	positivity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	9	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	10	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	11	dynamic	dynamic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	12	arrival	arrival	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	13	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	364	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	1	The	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	2	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	3	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	4	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	7	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	9	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	10	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	365	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	1	Assuming	assume	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	2	stationarity	stationarity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	3	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	4	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	5	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	6	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	9	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	10	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	11	would	would	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	12	imply	imply	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	13	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	14	θ	θ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	15	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	16	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	17	Moreover	moreover	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	18	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	19	Cov(e	Cov(e	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	20	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	21	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	22	e	e	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	23	s	s	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	25	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	26	0	0	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	27	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	28	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	29	=	=	SYM
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	366	30	s.	s.	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	2	suggests	suggest	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	3	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	4	e	e	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	5	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	6	series	series	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	7	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	8	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	9	considered	consider	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	10	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	11	i.i.d	i.i.d	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	13	innovations	innovation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	367	14	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	3	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	4	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	6	θ	θ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	7	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	8	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	9	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	10	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	11	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	12	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	14	i.i.d	i.i.d	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	15	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	16	property	property	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	19	innovations	innovation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	368	20	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	1	For	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	2	deriving	derive	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	4	expectations	expectation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	7	variables	variable	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	8	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	10	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	13	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	14	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	15	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	16	use	use	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	17	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	18	approximation	approximation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	19	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	20	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	21	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	22	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	23	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	24	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	25	write	write	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	26	see	see	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	27	Davis	Davis	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	28	et	et	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	29	al	al	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	369	30	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	370	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	370	2	2003	2003	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	370	3	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	370	4	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	1	Moreover	moreover	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	2	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	3	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	4	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	6	Y	Y	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	7	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	8	series	series	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	9	follows	follow	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	10	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	12	law	law	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	13	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	14	total	total	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	15	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	16	together	together	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	17	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	18	delta	delta	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	19	method	method	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	20	as	as	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	21	Notice	Notice	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	22	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	23	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	24	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	25	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	26	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	27	linear	linear	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	28	function	function	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	30	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	31	t−1	t−1	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	32	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	33	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	34	thus	thus	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	35	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	37	discussion	discussion	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	38	provided	provide	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	39	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	40	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	41	properties	property	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	42	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	43	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	44	t	t	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	45	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	46	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	47	previous	previous	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	48	section	section	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	49	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	50	applies	apply	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	51	here	here	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	371	52	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	1	An	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	2	important	important	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	3	distinction	distinction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	5	that	that	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	7	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	372	8	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	373	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	373	2	t	t	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	373	3	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	373	4	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	1	B.10	b.10	LS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	2	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	4	replaced	replace	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	5	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	6	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	7	that	that	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	8	are	be	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	9	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	10	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	374	11	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	1	Hence	hence	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	3	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	4	component	component	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	5	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	7	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	9	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	10	significant	significant	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	11	impact	impact	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	12	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	13	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	14	long	long	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	15	run	run	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	16	behavior	behavior	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	17	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	18	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	19	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	20	variables	variable	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	375	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	2	impose	impose	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	3	stationarity	stationarity	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	4	restrictions	restriction	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	5	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	7	dynamic	dynamic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	8	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	9	governing	govern	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	10	θ	θ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	11	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	376	12	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	377	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	377	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	377	3	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	377	4	moments	moment	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	377	5	regarding	regard	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	377	6	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	1	I	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	2	t	t	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	3	can	can	MD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	4	be	be	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	5	derived	derive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	6	similarly	similarly	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	7	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	8	θ	θ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	9	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	10	replaced	replace	VBD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	11	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	12	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	13	unconditional	unconditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	14	mean	mean	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	15	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	17	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	19	θ	θ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	20	t	t	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	378	21	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	1	Furthermore	furthermore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	3	let	let	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	4	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	5	consider	consider	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	6	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	7	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	8	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	9	V	V	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	10	ar(θ	ar(θ	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	11	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	12	|Ω	|ω	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	13	t−1	t−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	379	15	=	=	NFP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	1	α	α	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	2	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	3	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	4	λ	λ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	5	−1	−1	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	6	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	380	7	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	1	Therefore	therefore	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	2	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	3	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	4	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	5	variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	6	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	7	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	8	conditional	conditional	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	9	variance	variance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	12	data	data	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	13	stems	stem	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	14	from	from	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	15	both	both	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	16	K	k	XX
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	17	t−1	t−1	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	19	θ	θ	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	20	t	t	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	21	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	22	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	23	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	24	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	25	characterized	characterize	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	26	by	by	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	27	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	28	coefficients	coefficient	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	29	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	30	lagged	lagged	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	31	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	32	variable	variable	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	381	33	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	1	This	this	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	2	provides	provide	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	3	considerably	considerably	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	4	rich	rich	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	5	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	6	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	7	capturing	capture	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	8	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	9	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	10	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	11	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	12	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	13	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	14	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	15	reflected	reflect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	16	as	as	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	17	timely	timely	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	18	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	19	prompt	prompt	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	20	response	response	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	21	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	23	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	24	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	25	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	26	changes	change	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	29	data	datum	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	30	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	31	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	32	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	33	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	34	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	35	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	37	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	38	which	which	WDT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	39	is	be	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	40	reflected	reflect	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	41	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	42	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	43	1	1	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	44	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	45	also	also	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	46	Figure	figure	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	47	2	2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	48	where	where	WRB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	49	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	50	consider	consider	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	51	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	52	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	53	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	54	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	55	performance	performance	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	56	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	57	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	58	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	382	59	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	1	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	2	multi	multi	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	3	-	-	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	4	risk	risk	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	5	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	6	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	7	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	8	optimally	optimally	RB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	9	targeted	target	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	383	10	lockdown	lockdown	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	1	An	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	2	Introduction	introduction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	3	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	4	Stochastic	Stochastic	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	5	Epidemic	Epidemic	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	6	Models	Models	NNPS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	7	Data	Data	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	8	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	9	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	10	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	11	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	12	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	13	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	14	forecasting	forecasting	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	15	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	16	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	17	covid-19	covid-19	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	18	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	19	Generalized	generalize	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	20	poisson	poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	21	autoregressive	autoregressive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	22	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	23	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	24	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	25	series	series	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	26	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	27	counts	count	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	28	Generalized	generalized	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	29	autoregressive	autoregressive	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	30	score	score	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	31	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	32	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	33	applications	application	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	34	Observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	35	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	36	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	37	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	38	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	39	poisson	poisson	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	40	counts	count	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	41	Integer	Integer	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	42	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	43	valued	value	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	44	garch	garch	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	45	process	process	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	46	Estimating	Estimating	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	47	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	48	simulating	simulate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	49	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	50	sird	sird	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	51	model	model	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	52	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	53	covid-19	covid-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	54	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	55	many	many	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	56	countries	country	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	57	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	58	states	state	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	59	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	60	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	61	cities	city	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	62	Poisson	Poisson	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	63	autoregression	autoregression	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	64	Time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	65	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	66	varying	varying	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	67	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	68	state	state	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	69	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	70	dependent	dependent	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	71	recovery	recovery	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	72	rates	rate	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	73	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	74	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	75	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	76	Estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	77	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	78	global	global	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	79	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	80	fatality	fatality	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	81	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	82	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	83	covid-19	covid-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	84	Variation	variation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	85	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	86	government	government	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	87	responses	response	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	88	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	89	covid-19	covid-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	384	90	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	1	Blavatnik	Blavatnik	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	2	school	school	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	3	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	4	government	government	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	5	working	work	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	6	paper	paper	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	7	31	31	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	8	Estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	9	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	10	fraction	fraction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	11	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	12	unreported	unreported	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	13	infections	infection	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	14	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	15	epidemics	epidemic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	16	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	17	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	18	known	known	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	19	epicenter	epicenter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	20	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	21	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	22	application	application	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	23	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	24	covid-19	covid-19	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	25	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	26	contribution	contribution	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	27	to	to	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	28	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	29	mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	30	theory	theory	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	31	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	32	epidemics	epidemic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	33	Predicting	predict	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	34	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	35	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	36	varying	vary	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	37	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	38	with	with	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	39	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	40	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	41	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	42	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	43	observation	observation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	44	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	45	driven	drive	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	46	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	47	Early	early	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	48	dynamics	dynamic	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	49	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	50	transmission	transmission	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	51	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	52	control	control	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	53	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	54	covid-19	covid-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	55	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	56	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	57	mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	58	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	385	59	study	study	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	1	Substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	2	undocumented	undocumented	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	3	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	4	facilitates	facilitate	VBZ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	5	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	6	rapid	rapid	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	7	dissemination	dissemination	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	9	novel	novel	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	10	coronavirus	coronavirus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	12	sars	sars	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	14	cov-2	cov-2	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	16	Fundamental	fundamental	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	17	principles	principle	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	18	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	19	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	20	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	21	highlight	highlight	VBP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	22	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	23	immediate	immediate	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	24	need	need	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	25	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	26	large	large	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	27	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	28	scale	scale	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	29	serological	serological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	30	surveys	survey	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	31	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	32	assess	assess	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	33	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	34	stage	stage	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	35	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	36	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	37	sars	sars	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	38	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	39	cov-2	cov-2	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	40	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	41	Estimating	estimate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	42	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	43	covid-19	covid-19	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	44	infection	infection	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	45	rate	rate	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	46	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	47	Anatomy	anatomy	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	48	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	49	an	an	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	50	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	51	problem	problem	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	52	Tracking	tracking	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	53	r	r	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	54	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	55	covid-19	covid-19	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	56	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	57	A	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	58	new	new	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	59	real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	60	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	61	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	62	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	63	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	64	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	65	kalman	kalman	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	66	filter	filter	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	386	67	.	.	.
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	1	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	2	Novel	novel	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	3	coronavirus	coronavirus	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	4	2019-ncov	2019-ncov	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	5	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	6	early	early	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	7	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	8	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	9	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	10	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	11	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	12	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	13	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	14	Sir	Sir	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	15	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	16	hawkes	hawkes	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	17	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	18	linking	link	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	19	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	20	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	21	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	22	hawkes	hawkes	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	23	processes	process	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	24	to	to	TO
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	25	model	model	VB
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	26	diffusions	diffusion	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	27	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	28	finite	finite	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	29	populations	population	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	30	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	31	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	32	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	33	methods	method	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	34	Real	real	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	35	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	36	time	time	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	37	differential	differential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	38	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	39	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	40	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	41	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	42	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	43	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	44	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	45	Nowcasting	Nowcasting	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	46	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	47	forecasting	forecast	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	48	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	49	potential	potential	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	50	domestic	domestic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	51	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	52	international	international	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	53	spread	spread	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	54	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	55	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	56	2019-ncov	2019-ncov	CD
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	57	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	58	originating	originate	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	59	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	60	wuhan	wuhan	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	61	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	62	china	china	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	63	:	:	:
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	64	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	65	modelling	modelling	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	66	study	study	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	67	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	68	non	non	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	69	-	-	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	70	parametric	parametric	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	71	inference	inference	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	72	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	73	stochastic	stochastic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	74	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	75	models	model	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	76	using	use	VBG
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	77	gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	78	processes	process	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	79	Distribution	Distribution	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	80	Theory	Theory	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	81	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	82	Stochastic	Stochastic	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	83	Processes	Processes	NNPS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	84	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	85	Infectious	Infectious	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	86	Disease	Disease	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	87	Modelling	Modelling	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	88	Short	short	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	89	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	90	term	term	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	91	forecasts	forecast	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	92	and	and	CC
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	93	long	long	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	94	-	-	HYPH
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	95	term	term	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	96	mitigation	mitigation	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	97	evaluations	evaluation	NNS
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	98	for	for	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	99	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	100	covid-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	101	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	102	in	in	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	103	hubei	hubei	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	104	province	province	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	105	,	,	,
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	106	china	china	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	107	Prediction	Prediction	NNP
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	108	of	of	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	109	the	the	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	110	covid-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	111	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	112	based	base	VBN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	113	on	on	IN
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	114	a	a	DT
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	115	realistic	realistic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	116	stochastic	stochastic	JJ
cord-117688-20gfpbyf	387	117	model	model	NN