id sid tid token lemma pos cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 1 1 key key NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 1 2 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 2 1 cord-309096-vwbpkpxd cord-309096-vwbpkpxd NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 1 authors author NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 2 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 3 Magdon Magdon NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 5 Ismail Ismail NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 7 Malik Malik NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 8 title title NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 9 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 10 Machine machine NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 11 Learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 13 Phenomenology Phenomenology NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 14 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 3 15 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 1 From from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 2 Early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 3 Infection Infection NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 4 Dynamics Dynamics NNPS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 5 date date NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 6 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 7 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 9 03 03 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 10 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 11 20 20 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 12 journal journal NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 4 13 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 5 1 nan nan NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 5 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 5 3 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 6 1 10.1101/2020.03.17.20037309 10.1101/2020.03.17.20037309 LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 7 1 sha sha NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 7 2 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 8 1 e8efcf095ea37444eadcb82fb363b2760a6f25d8 e8efcf095ea37444eadcb82fb363b2760a6f25d8 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 8 2 doc_id doc_id CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 8 3 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 8 4 309096 309096 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 8 5 cord_uid cord_uid NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 8 6 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 9 1 vwbpkpxd vwbpkpxd NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 2 present present VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 4 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 5 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 7 driven drive VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 8 machine machine NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 9 learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 10 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 11 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 13 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 15 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 16 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 17 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 18 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 19 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 21 specifically specifically RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 22 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 23 counts count VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 24 over over IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 25 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 10 26 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 2 goal goal NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 4 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 5 extract extract VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 6 actionable actionable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 7 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 8 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 9 insights insight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 11 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 1 These these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 2 insights insight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 3 include include VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 5 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 6 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 9 rate rate NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 10 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 11 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 12 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 13 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 14 becoming become VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 15 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 16 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 17 estimates estimate NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 18 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 19 asymtomatic asymtomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 20 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 21 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 22 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 23 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 24 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 25 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 26 over over IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 27 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 12 28 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 2 focus focus VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 3 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 4 USA USA NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 5 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 6 starting start VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 7 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 9 first first JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 10 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 11 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 12 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 13 January January NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 14 20 20 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 15 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 13 16 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 2 methods method NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 3 reveal reveal VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 4 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 5 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 7 hidden hidden JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 9 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 11 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 12 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 13 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 14 about about IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 15 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 16 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 20 quantitatively quantitatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 21 confirm confirm VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 22 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 25 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 26 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 27 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 28 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 29 about about RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 30 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 31 0.14 0.14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 32 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 33 transition transition NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 34 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 35 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 36 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 37 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 38 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 14 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 2 methods method NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 3 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 4 efficient efficient JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 6 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 7 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 8 general general JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 10 being be VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 11 agnostic agnostic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 12 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 14 specific specific JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 15 virus virus NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 16 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 17 applicable applicable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 18 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 19 different different JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 20 populations population NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 21 or or CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 22 cohorts cohort NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 15 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 1 As as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 2 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 3 March March NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 4 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 5 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 7 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 8 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 9 still still RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 10 much much JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 11 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 12 debate debate NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 13 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 14 properties property NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 15 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 16 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 17 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 18 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 20 see see VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 21 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 22 CNN CNN NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 23 article article NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 24 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 25 Cohen Cohen NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 27 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 16 30 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 1 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 2 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 5 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 6 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 7 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 8 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 9 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 10 major major JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 11 driver driver NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 12 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 17 15 ? ? . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 1 There there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 2 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 3 no no DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 4 clear clear JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 5 unimodal unimodal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 6 view view NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 8 highlighting highlight VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 10 need need NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 11 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 12 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 13 tools tool NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 14 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 15 generate generate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 16 actionable actionable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 17 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 18 intelligence intelligence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 19 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 20 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 21 nature nature NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 22 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 23 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 24 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 25 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 26 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 27 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 28 minimal minimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 29 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 18 30 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 19 1 One one CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 19 2 approach approach NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 19 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 19 4 scenario scenario NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 19 5 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 19 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 20 1 Recently recently RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 20 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 20 3 Chinazzi Chinazzi NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 20 4 et et NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 20 5 al al NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 20 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 2 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 4 used use VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 6 Global Global NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 7 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 8 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 9 Mobility Mobility NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 10 Model Model NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 12 GLEAM GLEAM NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 14 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 15 perform perform VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 16 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 17 scenario scenario NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 18 analyses analysis NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 19 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 21 20 China China NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 1 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 2 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 4 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 5 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 6 networked networked JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 7 meta meta JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 9 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 10 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 11 based base VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 12 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 13 transportation transportation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 14 hubs hub NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 22 15 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 2 similar similar JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 3 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 6 US US NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 7 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 8 reported report VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 9 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 10 Wilson Wilson NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 12 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 14 where where WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 16 web web NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 17 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 18 app app NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 19 predicted predict VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 20 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 21 150,000 150,000 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 22 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 23 1.4 1.4 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 24 million million CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 25 infected infected JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 26 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 27 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 28 April April NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 29 30 30 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 30 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 31 depending depend VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 32 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 33 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 34 intervention intervention NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 35 level level NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 23 36 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 1 Such such JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 2 scenario scenario NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 3 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 4 requires require VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 5 user user NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 6 input input NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 7 such such JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 8 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 9 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 10 sites site NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 11 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 12 contagion contagion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 13 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 14 properties property NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 24 15 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 1 However however RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 4 majority majority NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 6 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 7 sites site NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 8 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 9 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 10 hidden hide VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 11 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 12 especially especially RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 13 if if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 14 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 15 transmission transmission NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 16 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 17 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 25 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 1 Further further RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 4 contagion contagion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 6 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 7 unknown unknown JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 8 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 9 must must MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 10 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 11 deduced deduce VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 13 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 14 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 15 domain domain NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 16 expertise expertise NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 26 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 27 1 Data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 27 2 driven drive VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 27 3 approaches approach NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 27 4 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 27 5 powerful powerful JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 27 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 2 long long JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 3 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 4 regression regression NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 5 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 6 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 7 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 8 out out IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 9 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 10 2025 2025 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 11 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 12 US US NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 13 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 14 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 15 immunological immunological JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 16 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 17 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 19 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 20 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 21 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 22 given give VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 23 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 24 Kissler Kissler NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 25 et et NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 26 al al NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 28 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 2 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 5 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 6 predicts predict VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 7 recurrent recurrent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 8 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 29 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 2 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 3 follow follow VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 4 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 5 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 7 driven drive VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 8 machine machine NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 9 learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 10 approach approach NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 11 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 12 understand understand VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 13 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 14 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 15 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 16 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 17 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 19 first first JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 20 54 54 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 21 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 22 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 23 US US NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 24 confirmed confirm VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 25 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 26 reports report NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 28 downloadable downloadable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 29 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 30 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 31 European European NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 32 Center Center NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 33 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 34 Disease Disease NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 35 Control Control NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 30 37 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 2 address address VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 4 challenge challenge NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 6 realtime realtime NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 7 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 9 intelligence intelligence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 10 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 11 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 12 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 31 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 2 approach approach NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 4 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 6 requires require VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 7 minimal minimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 8 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 9 or or CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 10 human human JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 11 input input NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 12 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 13 generates generate VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 14 actionable actionable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 15 insights insight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 32 16 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 1 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 2 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 5 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 6 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 7 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 33 8 ? ? . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 2 fall fall NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 3 away away RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 4 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 5 predicteds predicteds NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 7 indicating indicate VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 8 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 9 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 10 distancing distancing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 11 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 12 working work VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 13 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 14 agreement agreement NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 15 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 16 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 17 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 18 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 19 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 20 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 23 two two CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 24 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 25 kinks kink NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 26 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 27 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 28 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 29 curve curve NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 34 31 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 2 figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 3 emphasizes emphasize VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 4 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 5 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 6 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 7 learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 8 about about IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 11 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 12 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 13 later later JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 14 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 15 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 16 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 17 contaminated contaminate VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 18 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 19 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 20 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 21 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 22 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 23 whose whose WP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 24 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 25 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 26 hard hard JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 28 quantify quantify VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 35 29 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 2 Note note NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 3 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 4 Dates date NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 5 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 7 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 9 stamps stamp NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 10 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 12 ECDC ECDC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 13 report report NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 15 ECDC ECDC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 16 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 17 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 19 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 20 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 21 captures capture VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 23 previous previous JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 24 day day NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 25 's 's POS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 26 activity activity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 28 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 29 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 30 driven drive VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 31 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 32 says say VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 33 yes yes UH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 34 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 35 emphatically emphatically RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 36 36 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 2 even even RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 3 give give VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 4 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 5 estimates estimate NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 6 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 8 number number NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 9 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 10 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 11 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 37 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 1 Early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 2 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 4 both both CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 5 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 6 curse curse NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 7 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 9 blessing blessing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 38 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 2 curse curse NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 4 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 5 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 6 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 7 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 8 implies imply VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 9 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 10 much much JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 11 information information NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 13 so so IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 14 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 15 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 16 must must MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 17 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 18 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 19 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 20 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 21 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 22 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 23 identifiable identifiable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 24 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 25 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 26 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 39 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 2 blessing blessing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 4 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 5 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 6 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 7 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 9 peek peek NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 10 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 13 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 15 roams roam VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 16 free free JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 18 unchecked unchecked JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 19 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 20 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 21 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 22 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 23 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 24 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 25 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 26 learn learn VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 27 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 28 true true JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 29 intentions intention NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 30 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 31 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 32 lion lion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 33 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 34 you -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 35 must must MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 36 follow follow VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 37 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 38 beast beast NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 39 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 40 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 41 savanna savanna NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 42 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 43 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 44 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 45 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 46 zoo zoo NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 40 47 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 1 As as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 3 will will MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 4 see see VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 6 much much RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 7 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 8 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 9 learned learn VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 10 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 11 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 12 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 13 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 14 these these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 15 insights insight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 16 early early RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 17 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 19 game game NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 21 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 22 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 23 crucial crucial JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 24 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 25 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 26 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 27 governance governance NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 41 28 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 2 analyzed analyze VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 3 daily daily RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 4 confirmed confirm VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 6 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 7 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 8 January January NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 9 21 21 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 10 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 11 March March NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 12 14 14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 13 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 14 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 15 training training NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 16 or or CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 17 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 18 calibration calibration NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 19 phase phase NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 21 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 22 gray gray JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 23 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 24 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 25 Figure Figure NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 26 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 42 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 2 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 3 detailed detailed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 4 plot plot NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 7 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 8 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 9 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 11 training training NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 12 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 13 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 14 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 15 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 16 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 43 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 1 Qualitatively qualitatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 3 see see VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 4 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 6 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 7 captures capture VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 9 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 11 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 13 does do VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 14 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 15 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 16 setting set VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 17 four four CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 19 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 20 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 21 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 22 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 23 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 24 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 25 governing govern VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 26 exponential exponential JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 27 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 28 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 29 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 30 virulence virulence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 31 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 32 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 33 fraction fraction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 34 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 35 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 36 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 37 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 38 become become VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 39 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 40 later later RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 44 41 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 1 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 2 lag lag VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 3 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 5 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 6 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 7 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 8 become become VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 9 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 11 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 12 incubation incubation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 13 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 45 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 1 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 2 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 4 Unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 5 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 6 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 7 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 8 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 9 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 10 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 11 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 12 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 13 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 14 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 15 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 16 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 18 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 19 envelope envelope NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 46 21 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 1 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 2 red red JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 3 circles circle NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 4 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 6 observed observed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 7 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 8 counts count VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 47 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 1 How how WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 2 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 4 know know VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 6 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 7 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 8 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 9 honest honest JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 11 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 12 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 14 red red JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 15 circles circle NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 16 were be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 17 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 18 no no DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 19 way way NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 20 influenced influence VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 21 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 22 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 48 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 2 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 3 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 4 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 5 unique unique JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 6 position position NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 7 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 8 test test VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 10 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 11 because because IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 13 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 14 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 15 stamped stamp VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 16 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 17 version version NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 18 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 19 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 20 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 21 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 22 Magdon Magdon NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 23 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 24 Ismail Ismail NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 26 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 49 28 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 2 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 3 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 4 provably provably RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 5 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 6 changed change VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 7 since since IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 8 03/14 03/14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 10 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 12 just just RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 13 added add VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 14 test test NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 15 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 16 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 18 arrived arrive VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 50 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 2 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 3 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 4 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 5 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 6 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 7 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 8 no no DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 9 way way NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 10 forward forward RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 11 looking look VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 13 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 14 snooped snoop VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 15 or or CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 16 overfitted overfitte VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 51 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 2 observe observe VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 3 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 5 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 6 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 7 observed observe VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 8 counts count NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 9 agree agree VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 11 modulo modulo VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 12 two two CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 13 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 14 kinks kink NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 15 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 16 around around IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 17 03/24 03/24 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 19 03/30 03/30 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 21 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 23 observed observed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 24 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 25 start start VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 26 falling fall VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 27 away away RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 28 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 30 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 52 31 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 1 To to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 2 understand understand VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 4 cause cause NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 7 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 8 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 9 important important JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 53 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 1 Aggressive aggressive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 2 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 3 distancing distancing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 4 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 5 implemented implement VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 6 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 7 about about RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 8 03/13 03/13 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 9 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 10 lockdowns lockdown NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 11 around around IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 12 03/21 03/21 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 54 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 2 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 3 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 4 k k NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 5 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 6 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 7 means mean VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 9 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 10 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 11 these these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 12 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 13 will will MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 14 become become VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 15 apparent apparent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 16 around around IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 17 03/23 03/23 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 19 03/31 03/31 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 20 respectively respectively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 55 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 2 methods method NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 3 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 4 general general JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 5 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 6 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 7 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 8 applied apply VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 9 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 10 different different JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 11 cohorts cohort NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 56 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 1 In in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 2 Section section NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 3 3.2 3.2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 5 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 7 cross cross JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 8 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 9 sectional sectional JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 10 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 11 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 12 based base VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 13 study study NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 57 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 2 contributions contribution NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 3 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 4 • • NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 5 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 6 methodology methodology NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 7 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 8 quickly quickly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 9 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 10 robustly robustly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 11 machine machine NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 12 learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 13 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 14 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 15 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 16 given give VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 17 coarse coarse RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 18 aggregated aggregated JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 19 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 20 counts count VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 58 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 59 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 1 Building build VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 2 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 3 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 4 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 5 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 6 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 7 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 8 learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 9 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 10 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 12 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 60 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 61 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 1 Application application NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 2 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 4 methodology methodology NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 5 within within IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 7 context context NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 8 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 10 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 11 USA USA NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 12 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 62 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 2 methods method NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 3 reveal reveal VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 4 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 5 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 7 hidden hidden JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 9 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 11 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 12 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 13 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 14 about about IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 15 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 16 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 20 quantitatively quantitatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 21 confirm confirm VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 22 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 25 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 26 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 27 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 28 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 29 about about RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 30 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 31 0.14 0.14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 32 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 33 transition transition NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 34 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 35 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 36 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 37 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 38 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 63 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 2 Cross Cross NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 3 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 4 sectional sectional JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 5 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 6 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 9 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 10 across across IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 11 several several JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 12 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 64 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 65 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 1 To to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 3 knowledge knowledge NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 6 only only RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 7 tested test VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 8 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 9 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 10 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 11 due due IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 12 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 13 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 14 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 15 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 16 stamping stamping NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 17 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 19 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 66 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 2 results result NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 3 demonstrate demonstrate VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 5 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 6 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 7 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 8 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 9 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 10 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 11 predicting predict VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 13 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 14 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 15 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 16 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 67 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 2 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 4 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 5 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 6 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 68 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 2 majority majority NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 3 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 4 disease disease NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 5 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 6 aggregate aggregate VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 7 individuals individual NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 8 according accord VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 9 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 10 disease disease NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 11 status status NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 13 such such JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 14 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 15 SI SI NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 16 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 17 SIR SIR NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 18 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 19 SIS SIS NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 21 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 22 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 23 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 25 1927 1927 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 27 ; ; : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 28 Bailey Bailey NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 30 1957 1957 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 32 ; ; : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 33 Anderson Anderson NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 34 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 35 May May NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 37 1992 1992 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 69 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 2 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 4 similar similar JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 5 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 6 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 7 considering consider VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 9 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 10 infected infected JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 11 state state NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 12 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 13 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 14 transition transition VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 15 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 17 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 18 state state NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 70 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 1 Early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 2 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 3 allows allow VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 4 us -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 6 make make VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 7 simplifying simplify VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 8 assumptions assumption NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 71 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 1 In in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 3 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 4 phase phase NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 6 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 7 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 8 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 9 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 10 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 11 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 12 kicked kick VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 13 in in RP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 15 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 16 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 17 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 18 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 19 self self NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 20 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 21 reported report VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 72 22 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 1 That that RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 2 is is RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 4 you -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 5 decide decide VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 6 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 7 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 8 tested test VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 73 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 74 1 Why why WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 74 2 ? ? . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 75 1 Because because IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 75 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 75 3 condition condition NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 75 4 became become VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 75 5 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 75 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 76 1 This this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 76 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 76 3 important important JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 76 4 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 77 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 77 2 confirmed confirm VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 77 3 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 77 4 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 78 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 79 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 80 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 1 case case NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 4 transition transition NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 5 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 6 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 7 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 8 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 9 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 81 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 1 This this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 3 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 4 true true JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 5 later later RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 6 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 8 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 9 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 11 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 12 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 13 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 14 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 15 institute institute VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 16 randomized randomized JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 17 testing testing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 82 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 1 At at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 2 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 3 t t NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 4 let let VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 5 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 6 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 7 C(t C(t VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 9 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 10 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 11 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 12 correspondingly correspondingly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 13 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 15 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 17 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 18 unreported unreported JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 19 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 20 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 83 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 2 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 3 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 4 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 5 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 6 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 7 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 8 correspond correspond VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 9 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 10 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 11 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 12 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 13 some some DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 14 earlier early JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 84 15 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 1 t t NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 2 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 3 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 5 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 6 now now RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 7 transitioned transition VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 8 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 9 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 10 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 11 hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 12 got get VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 13 self self NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 14 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 15 reported report VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 85 16 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 1 Let let VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 2 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 3 fraction fraction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 4 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 6 those those DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 7 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 8 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 9 transitioned transition VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 10 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 11 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 13 Another another DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 14 advantage advantage NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 15 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 16 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 17 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 18 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 19 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 21 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 22 approximate approximate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 24 growth growth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 25 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 26 each each DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 27 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 28 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 29 independent independent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 30 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 31 exponential exponential JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 32 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 33 according accord VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 34 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 35 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 36 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 37 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 38 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 39 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 40 disease disease NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 86 41 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 1 So so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 3 Here here RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 6 second second JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 7 term term NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 8 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 10 loss loss NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 11 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 12 mild mild JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 13 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 14 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 15 transitioned transition VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 16 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 17 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 18 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 20 third third JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 21 term term NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 22 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 24 remaining remain VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 25 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 26 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 27 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 28 n't not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 29 transition transition VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 30 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 31 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 32 recovering recovering NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 33 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 34 some some DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 35 later later JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 36 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 37 r r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 38 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 39 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 40 fourth fourth JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 41 term term NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 42 accounts account NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 43 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 44 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 45 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 46 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 47 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 48 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 87 49 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 2 will will MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 3 further further RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 4 simplify simplify VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 5 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 6 assume assume VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 7 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 8 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 9 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 10 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 11 fully fully RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 12 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 13 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 14 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 15 α α NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 16 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 17 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 19 recovery recovery NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 20 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 21 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 22 non non JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 23 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 25 state state NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 26 occurs occur VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 27 late late JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 28 enough enough RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 29 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 30 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 31 factor factor VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 32 into into IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 33 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 34 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 88 35 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 2 simplified simplified JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 3 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 5 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 6 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 7 set set VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 8 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 9 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 10 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 11 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 13 first first JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 14 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 15 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 17 Jan Jan NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 18 21 21 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 19 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 20 USA USA NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 89 22 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 1 Given give VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 2 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 4 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 5 0 0 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 8 get get VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 9 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 10 approximate approximate JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 11 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 12 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 14 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 15 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 16 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 17 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 18 perturbation perturbation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 19 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 20 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 21 solve solve VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 22 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 23 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 24 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 25 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 26 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 27 fit fit VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 28 two two CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 29 points point NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 30 S(τ S(τ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 32 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 33 S(T S(T NNPS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 90 34 ): ): XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 1 where where WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 3 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 4 r r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 5 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 6 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 7 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 8 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 10 s s NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 91 11 = = NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 1 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 2 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 3 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 5 κ κ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 6 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 8 S(T S(T NNPS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 10 − − CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 11 S(1))/(S(τ S(1))/(S(τ NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 92 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 93 1 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 93 2 S(1 S(1 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 93 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 93 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 94 1 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 94 2 ρ ρ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 94 3 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 94 4 κ κ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 94 5 − − NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 94 6 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 2 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 3 details detail NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 4 see see VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 6 appendix appendix NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 95 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 1 From from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 2 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 3 solution solution NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 4 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 5 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 6 starting starting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 7 point point NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 10 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 11 further further RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 12 optimize optimize VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 13 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 15 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 16 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 17 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 18 gradient gradient NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 19 descent descent NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 20 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 21 minimizes minimize VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 22 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 23 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 24 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 25 measure measure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 26 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 27 captures capture VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 28 how how WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 29 well well RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 30 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 31 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 32 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 33 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 34 γ γ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 35 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 36 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 37 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 38 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 39 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 40 reproduce reproduce VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 41 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 42 observed observed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 43 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 44 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 45 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 46 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 47 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 48 see see VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 49 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 96 50 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 97 1 Abu Abu NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 97 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 97 3 Mostafa Mostafa NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 97 4 et et NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 97 5 al al NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 97 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 98 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 98 2 2012 2012 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 98 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 98 4 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 2 used use VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 4 combination combination NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 6 root root NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 7 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 8 mean mean JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 9 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 10 squared squared NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 11 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 12 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 13 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 14 root root NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 15 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 16 mean mean JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 17 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 18 squared squared JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 19 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 20 percentage percentage NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 21 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 22 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 23 between between IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 24 observed observed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 25 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 26 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 27 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 28 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 99 29 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 1 By by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 2 optimizing optimize VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 3 over over RP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 4 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 6 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 7 0 0 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 10 obtain obtain VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 11 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 12 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 13 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 14 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 16 training training NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 100 17 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 2 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 3 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 5 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 6 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 8 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 9 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 10 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 12 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 13 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 14 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 16 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 17 very very RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 18 high high JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 19 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 20 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 21 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 22 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 23 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 24 doubling double VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 25 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 26 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 27 2.6 2.6 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 28 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 101 29 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 2 virulence virulence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 3 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 4 0.14 0.14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 5 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 6 seems seem VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 7 comparable comparable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 8 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 9 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 10 standard standard JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 11 flu flu NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 13 though though IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 14 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 15 virus virus NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 16 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 17 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 18 affecting affect VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 19 certain certain JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 20 demographics demographic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 21 much much RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 22 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 23 severely severely RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 24 than than IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 26 flu flu NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 102 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 2 incubation incubation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 3 period period NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 4 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 5 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 6 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 7 seems seem VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 8 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 9 line line NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 10 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 11 physician physician NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 12 observations observation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 103 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 2 data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 3 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 4 predicts predict VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 5 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 6 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 8 first first JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 9 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 10 case case NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 11 appeared appear VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 13 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 14 were be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 15 4 4 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 16 other other JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 17 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 18 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 20 USA USA NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 104 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 3 β β XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 4 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 6 γ γ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 7 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 8 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 9 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 10 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 11 0 0 NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 12 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 13 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 14 knowledge knowledge NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 16 gained gain VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 17 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 18 relative relative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 19 ease ease NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 20 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 21 calibrating calibrate VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 22 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 23 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 24 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 25 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 26 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 27 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 28 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 29 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 105 30 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 1 But but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 3 these these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 4 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 6 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 7 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 9 whole whole JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 10 story story NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 11 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 12 especially especially RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 13 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 15 comes come VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 16 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 17 prediction prediction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 106 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 2 exhaustive exhaustive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 3 search search NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 4 over over IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 5 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 7 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 8 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 10 fixing fix VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 11 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 12 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 13 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 14 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 16 optimal optimal NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 17 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 18 that that DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 19 specific specific JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 20 k k NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 21 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 22 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 23 0 0 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 24 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 25 produces produce VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 26 several several JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 27 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 28 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 29 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 30 show show VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 31 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 32 quality quality NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 33 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 34 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 35 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 36 various various JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 38 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 39 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 40 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 41 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 43 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 44 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 45 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 47 a a NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 107 49 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 2 deepblue deepblue NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 3 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 4 contains contain VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 5 essentially essentially RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 6 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 7 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 8 within within IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 9 0.5 0.5 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 10 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 11 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 13 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 14 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 16 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 18 user user NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 19 defined define VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 21 4 4 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 108 22 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 109 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 110 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 111 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 112 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037309 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037309 ADD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 112 2 doi doi XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 112 3 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 113 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 113 2 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 113 3 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 113 4 tolerance tolerance NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 113 5 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 2 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 3 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 4 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 5 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 6 shows show VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 8 extent extent NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 9 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 10 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 12 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 13 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 14 ill ill RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 15 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 16 identified identify VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 17 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 19 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 114 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 3 all all PDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 4 these these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 5 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 7 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 8 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 9 equally equally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 10 fit fit VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 12 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 13 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 14 results result VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 15 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 17 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 18 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 19 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 115 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 1 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 2 robustness robustness NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 5 pick pick VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 7 white white NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 8 square square NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 9 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 11 middle middle NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 12 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 14 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 15 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 16 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 17 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 18 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 19 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 20 note note VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 21 here here RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 22 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 24 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 25 only only RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 26 one one CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 27 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 28 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 29 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 30 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 31 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 32 consistent consistent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 33 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 34 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 35 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 116 36 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 1 In in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 2 making make VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 3 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 6 should should MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 7 consider consider VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 8 all all DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 9 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 10 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 11 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 12 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 13 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 14 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 15 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 16 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 17 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 18 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 19 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 20 all all DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 21 equally equally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 22 consistent consistent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 23 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 24 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 25 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 117 26 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 3 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 4 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 5 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 7 b b NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 11 fix fix VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 118 12 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 1 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 2 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 3 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 4 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 5 0 0 NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 6 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 7 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 8 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 9 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 10 values value NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 11 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 12 show show VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 14 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 15 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 16 respect respect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 17 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 18 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 19 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 20 γ γ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 23 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 24 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 25 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 26 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 119 28 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 1 Again again RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 4 pick pick VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 6 white white NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 7 square square NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 8 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 10 middle middle NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 11 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 13 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 14 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 15 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 16 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 17 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 18 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 19 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 20 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 21 respect respect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 22 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 24 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 120 25 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 1 Hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 3 arrive arrive VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 4 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 6 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 8 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 9 Equation equation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 11 6 6 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 121 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 1 By by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 2 considering consider VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 3 all all DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 4 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 5 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 6 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 7 equally equally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 8 consistent consistent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 9 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 11 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 14 get get VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 16 estimates estimate NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 17 toghether toghether RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 18 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 20 ranges range NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 21 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 22 Equation equation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 23 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 122 24 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 2 emphasize emphasize VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 3 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 4 these these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 5 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 6 - - : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 7 ranges range VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 9 report report VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 10 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 11 nothing nothing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 12 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 13 do do VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 14 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 16 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 19 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 20 simply simply RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 21 due due JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 22 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 24 ill ill JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 25 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 26 posedness posedness NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 27 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 28 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 29 inverse inverse JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 30 problem problem NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 31 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 32 inifer inifer VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 33 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 34 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 35 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 36 finite finite JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 37 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 123 38 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 1 Several several JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 2 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 3 essentially essentially RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 4 fit fit VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 6 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 7 equivalently equivalently RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 124 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 2 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 3 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 4 include include VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 5 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 6 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 7 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 9 possible possible JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 10 measurement measurement NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 11 errors error NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 12 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 14 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 16 although although IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 17 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 18 two two CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 19 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 20 related relate VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 21 through through IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 23 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 24 tolerence tolerence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 25 used use VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 26 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 27 defining define VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 28 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 29 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 30 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 31 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 125 32 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 1 More More JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 2 noise noise NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 3 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 5 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 6 would would MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 7 result result VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 8 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 9 more more JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 10 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 11 being be VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 12 treated treat VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 13 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 14 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 126 15 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 1 As as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 2 already already RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 3 mentioned mention VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 6 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 7 honest honest JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 8 estimates estimate NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 11 must must MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 12 consider consider VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 13 all all DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 14 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 15 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 16 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 17 equally equally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 18 consistent consistent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 19 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 20 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 21 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 23 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 24 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 25 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 26 regions region NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 27 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 28 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 29 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 31 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 127 32 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 128 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 3 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 4 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 5 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 7 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 8 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 9 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 11 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 12 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 13 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 15 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 16 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 17 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 18 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 20 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 21 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 129 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 130 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 131 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 1 Blue Blue NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 3 better well RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 4 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 6 red red JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 7 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 8 worse bad JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 132 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 2 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 3 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 4 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 5 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 6 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 7 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 8 comparable comparable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 9 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 11 within within IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 12 0.5 0.5 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 13 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 14 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 16 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 17 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 133 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 2 white white JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 3 square square NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 6 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 7 chosen choose VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 10 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 11 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 13 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 14 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 15 0 0 NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 134 17 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 2 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 4 4 4 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 6 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 7 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 8 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 9 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 10 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 11 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 13 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 14 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 15 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 16 being be VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 17 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 19 middle middle NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 20 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 21 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 22 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 23 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 24 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 25 regions region NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 135 26 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 2 b b LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 4 Model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 5 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 6 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 8 chosen choose VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 136 9 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 137 1 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 137 2 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 137 3 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 137 4 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 137 5 0 0 NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 137 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 1 Again again RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 4 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 5 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 6 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 7 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 8 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 9 equivalence equivalence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 10 class class NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 11 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 12 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 13 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 138 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 2 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 3 robust robust JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 4 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 5 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 6 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 8 white white NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 9 square square NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 10 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 12 middle middle NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 13 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 14 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 15 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 16 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 17 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 18 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 19 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 21 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 22 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 23 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 24 γ γ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 25 * * NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 27 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 29 1.30 1.30 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 30 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 31 0.0014 0.0014 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 139 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 2 deep deep JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 3 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 4 blue blue JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 5 regions region NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 6 represent represent VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 7 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 140 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 2 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 3 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 4 Equation equation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 6 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 8 gives give VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 10 prediction prediction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 11 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 12 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 13 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 14 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 16 table table NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 17 below below RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 141 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 2 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 3 predicted predict VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 4 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 5 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 7 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 8 plotted plot VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 9 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 10 Figure Figure NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 11 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 142 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 143 1 6 6 LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 143 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 144 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 145 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 146 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 146 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 146 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 146 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 146 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 146 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 2 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 3 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 5 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 6 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 8 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 10 _SP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 11 In in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 13 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 14 material material NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 16 give give VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 17 details detail NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 18 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 19 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 20 cross cross JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 21 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 22 sectional sectional JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 23 study study NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 24 across across IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 25 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 147 26 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 2 different different JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 3 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 4 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 5 different different JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 6 cultures culture NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 8 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 9 networks network NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 11 mobility mobility NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 13 demographics demographic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 15 as as RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 16 well well RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 17 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 18 different different JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 19 times time NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 20 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 21 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 23 first first JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 24 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 25 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 26 reported report VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 28 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 29 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 30 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 31 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 148 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 2 calibrated calibrate VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 3 independent independent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 4 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 5 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 6 each each DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 7 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 8 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 10 resulting result VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 11 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 12 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 13 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 14 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 15 Table Table NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 16 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 149 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 2 primarily primarily RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 3 focused focus VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 4 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 7 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 8 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 10 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 11 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 12 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 13 variability variability NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 15 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 17 studied study VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 18 how how WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 19 β β PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 20 statistically statistically RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 21 depends depend VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 22 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 23 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 24 number number NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 25 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 26 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 27 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 28 specific specific JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 29 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 30 factors factor NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 150 31 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 1 In in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 3 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 4 material material NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 7 give give VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 8 details detail NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 9 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 11 study study NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 12 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 14 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 15 results result NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 151 16 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 152 1 Qualitatively qualitatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 152 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 152 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 152 4 find find VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 152 5 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 152 6 • • XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 2 larger large JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 3 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 4 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 6 virus virus NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 7 reaching reach VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 9 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 10 indicates indicate VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 11 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 12 larger large JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 13 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 153 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 2 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 3 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 4 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 5 been be VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 6 witnessed witness VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 9 faster fast RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 11 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 154 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 1 That that DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 2 seems seem VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 3 unusual unusual JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 5 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 6 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 7 strongly strongly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 8 indicated indicate VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 155 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 2 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 3 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 4 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 5 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 6 good good JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 7 explanation explanation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 8 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 9 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 10 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 156 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 2 could could MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 3 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 4 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 5 artefact artefact NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 6 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 7 testing testing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 8 procedures procedure NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 9 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 10 being be VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 11 streamlined streamline VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 13 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 14 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 15 adopters adopter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 16 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 17 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 18 pandamic pandamic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 19 presenting present VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 20 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 21 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 22 were be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 23 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 24 detected detect VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 157 25 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 158 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 1 Population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 2 density density NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 3 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 5 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 6 site site NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 7 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 9 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 10 positive positive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 11 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 12 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 14 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 15 's 's POS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 16 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 17 density density NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 18 does do VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 19 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 159 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 160 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 1 There there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 3 faster fast JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 4 spread spread VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 5 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 6 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 7 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 8 more more JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 9 people people NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 10 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 12 poverty poverty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 13 level level NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 14 defined define VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 15 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 16 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 17 percentage percentage NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 18 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 19 people people NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 20 living live VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 21 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 22 less less JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 23 than than IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 24 $ $ $ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 25 5.50 5.50 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 26 per per IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 27 day day NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 161 28 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 162 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 1 Median median JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 2 age age NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 3 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 4 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 5 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 6 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 163 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 1 Spread Spread NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 3 faster fast JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 4 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 5 younger young JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 6 populations population NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 164 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 2 youth youth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 3 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 4 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 5 mobile mobile JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 6 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 7 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 8 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 9 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 10 carefree carefree JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 165 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 166 1 7 7 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 166 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 167 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 168 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 169 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 170 1 https://doi.org/10 https://doi.org/10 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 170 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 171 1 1101 1101 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 172 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 1 Wealth wealth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 2 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 3 per per IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 5 capita capita NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 6 income income NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 7 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 9 slight slight JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 10 negative negative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 11 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 173 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 1 Spread Spread NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 3 slower slow JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 4 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 5 richer rich JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 6 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 8 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 9 due due IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 10 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 11 risk risk NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 12 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 13 aversion aversion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 15 higher high JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 16 levels level NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 17 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 18 education education NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 19 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 20 less less JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 21 reliance reliance NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 22 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 23 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 24 transportation transportation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 174 25 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 1 Whatever whatever WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 3 cause cause NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 6 does do VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 7 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 8 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 9 impact impact NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 11 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 12 relatively relatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 13 smaller small JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 14 than than IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 16 other other JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 17 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 175 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 1 Early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 2 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 3 allows allow VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 4 us -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 6 learn learn VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 7 useful useful JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 8 properties property NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 9 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 176 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 1 Later later JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 2 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 3 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 4 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 5 contaminated contaminate VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 6 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 7 human human JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 8 intervention intervention NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 10 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 11 renders render VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 13 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 14 less less RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 15 useful useful JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 16 without without IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 17 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 18 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 19 general general JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 20 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 177 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 2 learned learn VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 4 lot lot NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 5 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 7 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 8 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 9 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 178 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 2 's be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 3 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 4 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 6 virulence virulence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 8 incubation incubation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 9 period period NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 11 unseen unseen JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 12 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 13 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 14 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 15 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 16 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 17 confirmed confirm VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 18 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 179 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 1 All all PDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 2 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 4 albeit albeit IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 5 within within IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 6 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 7 tolerances tolerance NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 9 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 10 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 11 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 12 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 13 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 14 little little JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 15 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 180 16 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 1 Asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 2 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 4 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 6 around around RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 7 30 30 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 8 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 10 converting convert VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 11 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 12 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 13 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 14 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 15 rate rate NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 16 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 17 most most RBS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 18 1.2 1.2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 19 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 181 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 1 There there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 3 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 4 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 5 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 7 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 9 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 10 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 11 up up IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 12 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 13 13 13 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 14 days day NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 16 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 18 estimate estimate VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 19 5.3 5.3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 20 million million CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 21 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 22 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 23 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 24 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 25 03/14 03/14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 26 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 27 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 28 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 29 being be VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 30 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 31 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 32 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 33 26 26 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 34 million million CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 182 35 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 1 Such such JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 2 information information NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 4 useful useful JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 5 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 6 planning planning NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 7 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 8 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 9 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 10 system system NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 11 preparedness preparedness NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 183 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 184 1 Are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 184 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 184 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 184 4 correct correct JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 184 5 ? ? . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 2 were be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 3 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 4 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 5 unique unique JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 6 position position NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 7 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 8 test test VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 9 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 10 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 11 because because IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 12 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 13 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 14 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 15 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 16 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 17 stamped stamp VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 18 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 19 version version NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 20 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 21 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 23 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 24 Magdon Magdon NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 25 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 26 Ismail Ismail NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 28 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 185 30 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 2 side side NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 3 benefit benefit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 4 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 6 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 7 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 8 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 9 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 10 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 11 benchmark benchmark NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 12 against against IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 13 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 14 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 15 evaluate evaluate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 16 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 17 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 18 interventions intervention NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 186 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 1 If if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 2 moving move VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 3 forward forward RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 5 observed observe VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 6 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 7 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 8 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 9 low low JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 10 compared compare VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 11 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 13 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 14 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 16 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 17 means mean VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 19 interventions intervention NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 20 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 21 working work VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 22 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 23 most most RBS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 24 likely likely RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 25 reducing reduce VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 26 β β XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 187 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 1 Starting start VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 2 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 3 about about IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 4 March March NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 5 25 25 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 8 observed observed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 9 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 10 starts start VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 11 falling fall VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 12 off off RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 13 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 15 observe observe VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 17 flattening flattening NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 18 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 19 March March NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 20 28 28 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 188 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 2 US US NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 3 instuted instute VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 4 broad broad JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 5 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 6 aggressive aggressive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 7 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 8 distancing distance VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 9 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 10 starting start VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 11 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 12 or or CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 13 before before IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 14 March March NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 15 13 13 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 16 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 17 even even RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 18 stronger strong JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 19 lockdown lockdown NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 20 around around IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 21 March March NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 22 21 21 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 23 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 24 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 25 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 26 consistent consistent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 27 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 28 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 29 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 30 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 31 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 32 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 33 's 's POS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 34 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 35 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 36 k k NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 37 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 38 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 189 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 1 Without without IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 2 such such JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 3 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 4 targets target NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 6 compare compare VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 7 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 10 would would MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 11 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 12 hard hard JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 13 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 14 evaluate evaluate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 15 intervention intervention NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 16 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 190 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 2 approach approach NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 4 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 5 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 6 works work VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 7 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 8 coarse coarse JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 10 aggregated aggregated JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 11 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 191 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 192 1 But but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 192 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 192 3 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 192 4 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 192 5 limitations limitation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 192 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 193 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 2 independent independent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 3 evolution evolution NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 4 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 5 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 6 sites site NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 7 only only RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 8 applies apply VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 9 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 10 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 11 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 194 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 1 Hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 3 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 5 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 6 infections infection NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 7 increase increase VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 8 beyond beyond IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 9 some some DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 10 point point NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 11 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 12 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 15 begins begin VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 16 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 17 saturate saturate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 19 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 21 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 22 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 23 sophisticated sophisticated JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 24 network network NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 25 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 26 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 27 captures capture VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 28 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 29 dependence dependence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 30 between between IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 31 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 32 sites site NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 33 would would MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 34 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 35 needed need VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 36 Balcan Balcan NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 37 et et FW cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 38 al al NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 195 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 196 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 1 While while IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 3 did do VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 4 present present VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 5 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 6 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 7 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 10 should should MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 11 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 12 taken take VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 13 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 14 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 15 grain grain NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 16 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 17 salt salt NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 18 because because IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 19 many many JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 20 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 21 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 22 nearly nearly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 23 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 24 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 25 resulting result VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 26 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 27 prediction prediction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 28 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 197 29 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 198 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 2 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 3 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 5 interpretation interpretation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 6 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 7 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 9 will will MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 10 change change VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 11 once once RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 12 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 13 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 14 protocols protocol NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 15 kick kick VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 16 in in RP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 199 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 2 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 3 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 4 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 6 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 7 re re VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 8 - - VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 9 calibrated calibrate VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 11 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 12 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 13 if if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 14 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 15 decreases decrease VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 17 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 20 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 21 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 22 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 23 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 24 reinterpreted reinterpret VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 26 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 27 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 28 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 29 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 30 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 31 virulence virulence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 32 only only RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 33 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 34 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 35 self self NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 36 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 37 reporting reporting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 38 setting setting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 39 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 40 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 41 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 42 random random JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 43 testing testing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 200 45 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 3 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 4 possible possible JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 6 build build VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 7 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 8 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 9 general general JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 10 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 11 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 12 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 13 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 14 phase phase NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 15 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 16 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 17 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 18 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 19 latter latter JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 201 20 phase phase NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 1 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 2 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 4 after after IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 5 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 6 distancing distancing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 202 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 1 But but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 3 beware beware VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 5 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 7 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 8 general general JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 9 sophisticated sophisticated JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 10 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 11 looks look VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 12 good good JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 13 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 14 priori priori NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 15 until until IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 16 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 17 comes come VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 18 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 19 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 20 calibrate calibrate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 22 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 23 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 24 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 25 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 26 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 27 point point NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 28 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 29 becomes become VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 30 unidentifiable unidentifiable JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 203 31 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 204 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 2 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 3 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 4 learned learn VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 5 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 6 USA USA NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 7 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 205 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 2 learned learn VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 3 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 5 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 7 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 8 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 9 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 10 another another DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 11 society society NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 206 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 2 virulence virulence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 3 could could MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 4 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 5 globally globally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 6 invariant invariant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 8 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 10 could could MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 11 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 12 depend depend VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 13 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 14 genetic genetic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 15 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 16 demographic demographic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 17 factors factor NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 18 like like IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 19 age age NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 21 as as RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 22 well well RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 23 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 24 what what WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 25 " " `` cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 26 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 27 " " '' cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 28 means mean NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 29 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 30 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 31 culturethat culturethat NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 32 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 33 when when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 34 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 35 you -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 36 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 37 yourself -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 38 checked check VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 207 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 1 In in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 2 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 3 high high RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 5 strung string VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 6 society society NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 8 you -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 9 expect expect VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 10 high high JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 11 virulenceparameter virulenceparameter NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 12 since since IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 14 threshold threshold NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 15 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 16 serious serious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 17 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 18 lower low JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 208 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 1 One one CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 2 certainly certainly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 3 expects expect VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 5 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 6 force force NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 7 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 8 depend depend VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 9 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 11 underlying underlying JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 12 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 13 network network NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 14 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 15 interaction interaction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 16 patterns pattern NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 17 between between IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 18 people people NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 19 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 20 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 21 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 22 vary vary VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 23 drastically drastically RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 24 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 25 one one CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 26 society society NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 27 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 28 another another DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 29 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 30 depending depend VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 31 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 32 interventions intervention NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 209 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 1 Hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 3 one one PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 4 should should MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 5 calibrate calibrate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 7 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 8 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 9 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 10 specific specific JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 11 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 12 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 13 gain gain VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 14 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 15 useful useful JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 16 insights insight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 210 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 211 1 8 8 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 211 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 212 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 213 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 214 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 2 Lag Lag NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 4 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 6 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 7 Public Public NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 8 Policy Policy NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 215 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 2 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 3 k k NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 5 important important JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 6 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 7 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 8 policy policy NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 9 due due IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 10 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 11 how how WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 12 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 13 policy policy NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 14 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 15 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 16 driven drive VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 17 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 18 human human JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 19 psychology psychology NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 216 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 2 Human human JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 3 tendency tendency NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 6 associate associate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 7 any any DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 8 improvement improvement NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 9 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 10 outcome outcome NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 11 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 12 recent recent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 13 actions action NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 217 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 1 However however RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 3 if if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 4 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 5 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 7 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 9 one one PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 10 might may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 11 prematurely prematurely RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 12 reward reward VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 13 those those DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 14 recent recent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 15 actions action NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 16 instead instead RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 17 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 18 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 19 earlier early JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 20 actions action NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 21 whose whose WP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 22 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 23 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 24 actually actually RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 25 being be VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 26 seen see VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 218 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 1 Such such JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 2 lags lag NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 3 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 4 present present JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 5 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 6 traditional traditional JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 7 machine machine NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 8 learning learning NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 10 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 11 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 12 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 13 delayed delay VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 14 reward reward NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 15 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 16 reinforcement reinforcement NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 17 learning learning NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 18 settings setting NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 219 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 1 Credit credit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 2 assignment assignment NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 3 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 4 prior prior JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 5 actions action NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 6 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 8 face face NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 9 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 10 delayed delayed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 11 reward reward NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 13 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 14 notoriously notoriously RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 15 difficult difficult JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 16 task task NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 19 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 20 remains remain VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 21 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 22 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 23 humans human NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 24 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 25 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 26 loop loop NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 220 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 1 Knowledge knowledge NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 2 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 4 lag lag NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 5 helps help VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 6 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 7 assign assign VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 8 credit credit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 9 appropriately appropriately RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 10 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 11 prior prior JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 12 actions action NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 13 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 14 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 16 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 17 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 18 setting setting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 19 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 20 no no DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 21 exception exception NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 221 22 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 1 Wikipedia Wikipedia NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 3 Source source NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 4 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 5 World World NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 6 Bank Bank NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 8 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 222 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 1 List list NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 2 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 3 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 4 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 5 percentage percentage NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 6 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 7 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 8 living live VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 9 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 10 poverty poverty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 223 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 224 1 www.wikipedia.com www.wikipedia.com ADD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 224 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 1 Wilson Wilson NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 3 C. C. NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 5 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 225 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 226 1 Exclusive exclusive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 226 2 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 1 Here here RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 2 's be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 3 how how WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 4 fast fast RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 6 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 7 could could MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 8 infect infect VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 9 over over IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 10 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 11 million million CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 12 americans americans NNPS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 227 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 1 TIME time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 2 web web NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 3 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 4 applet applet NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 5 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 6 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 7 scenario scenario NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 8 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 228 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 1 World World NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 3 Bank Bank NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 5 2017 2017 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 229 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 1 Adjusted adjust VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 2 net net JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 3 national national JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 4 income income NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 5 per per IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 6 capita capita FW cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 8 current current JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 9 us$ us$ $ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 230 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 231 1 https://data.worldbank.org https://data.worldbank.org JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 231 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 232 1 World- World- NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 1 Data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 3 Info info NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 5 2015 2015 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 233 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 234 1 Average average JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 234 2 income income NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 234 3 around around IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 234 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 234 5 world world NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 234 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 235 1 https://data.worlddata.info https://data.worlddata.info JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 235 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 235 3 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 236 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 3 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 4 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 5 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 7 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 8 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 9 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 11 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 12 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 13 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 15 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 16 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 17 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 18 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 20 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 21 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 237 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 238 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 239 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 240 1 https://doi.org/10 https://doi.org/10 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 240 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 1 1101 1101 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 2 Recall recall VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 4 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 6 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 7 fixed fix VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 8 k k NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 10 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 11 0 0 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 14 must must MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 15 perform perform VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 17 gradient gradient NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 18 descent descent NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 19 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 20 optimize optimize VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 21 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 22 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 23 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 241 24 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 1 Unfortunately unfortunately RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 4 dependence dependence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 5 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 6 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 7 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 8 exponential exponential JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 9 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 10 hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 11 very very RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 12 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 242 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 1 So so CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 2 if if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 4 starting starting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 5 point point NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 6 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 7 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 8 chosen choose VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 9 carefully carefully RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 12 optimization optimization NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 13 gets get VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 14 stuck stick VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 15 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 17 very very RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 18 flat flat JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 19 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 21 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 22 many many JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 23 millions million NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 24 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 25 iterations iteration NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 26 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 27 needed need VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 28 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 29 converge converge VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 243 30 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 1 Hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 4 prudent prudent JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 5 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 6 choose choose VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 8 starting start VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 9 conditions condition NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 10 carefully carefully RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 244 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 1 To to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 2 do do VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 3 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 6 need need VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 7 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 8 analyze analyze VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 10 recursion recursion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 245 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 1 First first RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 4 observe observe VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 5 that that IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 7 recursion recursion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 8 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 9 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 11 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 13 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 14 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 15 standalone standalone JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 16 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 17 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 18 th th DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 19 order order NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 20 recurrence recurrence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 246 21 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 1 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 2 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 3 ≤ ≤ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 4 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 5 ≤ ≤ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 6 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 8 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 10 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 247 12 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 248 1 M m NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 248 2 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 1 β β LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 2 t−1 t−1 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 4 hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 7 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 8 guess guess VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 9 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 10 solution solution NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 11 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 13 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 249 15 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 250 1 M m NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 250 2 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 1 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 2 k−1 k−1 XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 3 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 4 t−k t−k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 6 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 7 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 251 8 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 1 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 3 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 4 requires require VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 5 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 6 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 252 7 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 1 βφ βφ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 2 k−1 k−1 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 3 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 4 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 5 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 6 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 253 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 2 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 4 perturbation perturbation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 5 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 6 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 7 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 8 → → SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 9 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 254 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 1 At at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 2 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 3 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 4 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 6 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 7 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 8 β β XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 10 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 12 set set VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 13 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 14 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 15 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 16 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 18 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 19 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 20 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 21 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 22 first first JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 23 order order NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 24 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 25 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 26 solved solve VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 27 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 28 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 255 29 −γ/ −γ/ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 256 1 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 256 2 k−1 k−1 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 257 1 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 257 2 so so RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 257 3 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 1 Given give VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 2 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 3 approximation approximation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 6 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 7 solve solve VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 8 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 9 S(t S(t NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 11 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 12 Since since IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 13 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 14 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 15 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 16 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 17 O(γ O(γ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 19 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 20 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 258 21 t t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 259 1 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 1 2k 2k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 4 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 5 approximate approximate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 6 S(t S(t NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 8 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 10 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 11 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 12 independently independently RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 13 control control VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 14 two two CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 15 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 16 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 17 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 18 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 260 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 2 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 3 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 4 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 5 match match VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 7 observed observed JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 8 S(t S(t NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 10 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 11 two two CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 12 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 13 points point NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 261 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 1 Since since IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 3 growth growth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 5 exponential exponential JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 8 match match VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 10 end end NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 11 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 13 S(T S(T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 15 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 16 some some DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 17 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 18 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 19 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 20 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 21 middle middle NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 22 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 23 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 24 example example NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 25 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 26 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 27 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 28 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 29 /4 /4 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 262 30 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 1 Let let VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 2 ∆ ∆ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 3 T t NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 4 = = , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 6 S(T S(T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 8 − − NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 9 S(1))/M s(1))/m NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 10 0 0 NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 11 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 12 ∆ ∆ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 13 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 263 14 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 2 S(τ s(τ JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 4 − − NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 5 S(1))/M s(1))/m NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 6 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 264 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 1 Then then RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 3 Dividing dividing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 4 gives give VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 5 ∆ ∆ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 6 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 7 /∆ /∆ NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 8 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 9 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 11 φ φ FW cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 12 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 13 −k −k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 14 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 265 15 1)/(φ 1)/(φ CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 266 1 τ τ LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 266 2 −k −k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 266 3 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 266 4 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 266 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 1 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 2 φ φ HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 3 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 4 −τ −τ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 6 because because IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 7 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 8 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 9 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 267 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 1 Let let VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 2 us -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 3 consider consider VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 5 equation equation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 6 κ κ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 7 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 9 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 10 r r NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 11 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 12 1)/(φ 1)/(φ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 13 s s POS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 14 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 15 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 17 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 18 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 19 gives give VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 20 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 21 r r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 22 − − NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 23 κφ κφ IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 24 s s NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 25 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 26 κ κ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 27 − − NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 28 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 29 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 30 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 31 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 32 or or CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 33 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 34 generally generally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 268 35 φ φ . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 1 r r LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 2 − − NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 3 κφ κφ IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 4 s s NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 5 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 6 ρ ρ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 7 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 8 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 269 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 270 1 where where WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 270 2 r r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 270 3 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 270 4 s s NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 270 5 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 271 1 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 271 2 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 271 3 κ κ . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 272 1 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 272 2 ρ ρ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 272 3 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 272 4 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 273 1 This this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 273 2 means mean VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 273 3 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 273 4 > > XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 273 5 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 273 6 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 1 When when WRB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 2 ρ ρ LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 3 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 4 0 0 NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 7 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 8 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 9 r−s r− NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 274 10 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 1 κ κ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 3 so so IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 5 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 7 perturbation perturbation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 8 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 9 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 10 φ φ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 11 r−s r−s NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 275 12 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 276 1 κ κ LS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 1 + + UH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 3 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 4 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 5 perturbation perturbation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 6 parameter parameter NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 7 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 277 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 278 1 Then then RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 278 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 278 3 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 278 4 r r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 278 5 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 279 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 279 2 κ κ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 279 3 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 279 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 1 φ φ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 2 s s NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 3 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 4 plugging plug VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 5 into into IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 7 equation equation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 8 gives give VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 280 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 281 34 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 2 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 4 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 6 setting setting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 8 r r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 9 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 10 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 11 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 12 k k XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 13 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 14 s s NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 15 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 16 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 17 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 18 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 19 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 20 κ κ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 21 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 22 ∆ ∆ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 23 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 24 /∆ /∆ NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 25 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 26 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 27 ρ ρ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 28 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 29 κ κ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 30 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 31 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 282 32 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 1 Finally finally RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 3 since since IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 4 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 5 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 6 approximate approximate JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 9 may may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 10 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 11 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 12 able able JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 13 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 14 satisfy satisfy VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 15 both both DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 16 equations equation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 17 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 19 9 9 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 21 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 22 hence hence RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 24 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 25 instead instead RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 26 minimize minimize VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 27 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 28 mean mean NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 29 squared squared NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 30 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 31 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 32 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 33 gives give VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 34 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 35 now now RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 36 need need VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 37 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 38 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 39 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 40 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 41 satisfies satisfy VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 42 φ φ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 43 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 44 β(1 β(1 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 45 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 46 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 47 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 48 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 49 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 50 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 283 51 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 1 Again again RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 4 do do VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 5 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 6 perturbation perturbation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 7 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 9 omitting omit VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 11 details detail NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 12 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 13 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 14 obtain obtain VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 15 If if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 16 one one PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 17 wishes wish VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 18 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 19 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 20 fixed fix VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 21 point point NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 22 iteration iteration NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 23 starting start VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 24 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 25 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 26 above above RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 27 will will MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 28 quickly quickly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 29 approach approach VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 30 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 31 solution solution NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 32 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 284 33 φ φ ADD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 1 = = NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 2 β(1 β(1 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 3 − − NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 4 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 5 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 6 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 7 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 285 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 2 show show VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 4 approximate approximate JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 5 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 6 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 8 US US NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 9 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 11 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 12 4 4 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 286 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 2 show show VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 4 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 5 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 8 initial initial JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 9 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 10 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 12 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 13 constructed construct VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 14 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 16 12 12 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 18 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 20 11 11 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 287 22 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 3 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 4 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 5 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 6 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 7 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 8 γ γ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 9 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 10 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 11 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 12 1.306 1.306 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 13 0.0013282 0.0013282 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 14 1.6521 1.6521 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 15 Equations equation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 17 12 12 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 19 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 21 11 11 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 23 1.3055 1.3055 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 24 0.0013423 0.0013423 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 288 25 1.6619 1.6619 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 2 approximate approximate JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 3 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 4 works work NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 5 pretty pretty RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 6 well well RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 8 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 9 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 10 certainly certainly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 11 good good JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 12 enough enough RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 13 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 14 initialize initialize VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 15 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 16 optimization optimization NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 289 17 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 1 Note note VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 2 that that DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 3 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 4 get get VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 5 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 6 even even RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 7 better well JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 8 starting starting NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 9 point point NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 10 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 12 gradient gradient NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 13 descent descent NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 14 optimization optimization NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 16 assuming assume VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 17 12 12 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 290 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 291 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 292 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 293 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 294 1 https https NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 294 2 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 295 1 //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10.1101 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 295 2 //doi.org/10 //doi.org/10 XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 295 3 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 296 1 /2020 /2020 . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 1 T T NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 2 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 3 τ τ NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 4 ≥ ≥ CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 5 2k 2k NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 7 one one PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 8 could could MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 9 simultaneously simultaneously RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 10 solve solve VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 11 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 12 three three CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 13 equations equation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 14 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 15 perform perform VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 16 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 17 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 18 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 19 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 20 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 21 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 22 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 23 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 24 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 25 ECDC ECDC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 26 giving give VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 27 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 28 numbers number NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 29 starting start VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 30 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 31 December December NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 32 31 31 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 33 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 34 2019 2019 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 35 ECDC ECDC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 37 2020 2020 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 297 39 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 2 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 3 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 5 20 20 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 6 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 7 selected select VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 8 qualitatively qualitatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 9 because because IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 10 they -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 11 appear appear VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 12 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 13 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 14 reasonably reasonably RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 15 efficient efficient JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 16 testing testing NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 17 procedures procedure NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 18 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 19 self self NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 20 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 21 reported report VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 22 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 298 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 299 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 299 2 in- in- VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 1 From from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 3 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 4 health health NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 5 perspective perspective NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 7 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 9 most most RBS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 10 important important JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 11 parameter parameter NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 13 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 15 since since IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 16 actions action NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 17 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 18 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 19 taken take VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 20 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 21 mitigate mitigate VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 22 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 23 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 24 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 25 reducing reduce VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 26 β β XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 27 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 28 whereas whereas IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 29 γ γ NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 30 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 31 k k NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 32 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 33 M M NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 34 0 0 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 35 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 36 somewhat somewhat RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 37 givens given NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 38 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 39 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 40 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 300 41 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 2 show show VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 4 fits fit NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 5 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 6 Table Table NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 7 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 301 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 1 As as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 2 you -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 3 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 4 see see VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 6 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 7 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 8 much much JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 9 variability variability NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 10 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 11 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 302 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 303 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 3 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 4 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 5 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 7 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 8 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 9 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 11 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 12 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 13 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 15 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 16 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 17 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 18 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 20 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 21 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 304 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 305 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 306 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 307 1 https://doi.org/10 https://doi.org/10 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 307 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 308 1 1101 1101 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 308 2 _SP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 2 perform perform VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 4 simple simple JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 5 statistical statistical JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 6 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 7 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 8 test test VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 9 if if IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 10 β β PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 11 can can MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 12 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 13 explained explain VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 14 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 15 any any DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 16 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 17 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 18 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 20 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 21 Table Table NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 22 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 309 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 2 include include VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 4 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 5 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 7 global global JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 8 explanatory explanatory JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 9 variable variable NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 11 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 12 would would MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 13 account account VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 14 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 15 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 16 global global JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 17 increase increase NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 18 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 19 vigilence vigilence NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 20 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 21 time time NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 22 passes pass VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 23 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 24 awareness awareness NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 25 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 26 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 27 pandemic pandemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 28 increases increase NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 310 29 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 1 One one PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 2 expects expect VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 3 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 4 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 5 decrease decrease VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 6 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 8 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 311 9 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 2 table table NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 3 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 4 correlations correlation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 6 β β XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 7 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 9 various various JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 10 parameters parameter NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 11 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 12 shown show VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 13 below below RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 312 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 1 For for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 3 analysis analysis NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 5 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 7 best good JJS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 8 case case NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 9 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 11 although although IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 12 similar similar JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 13 results result NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 14 follow follow VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 15 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 16 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 17 optimal optimal NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 18 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 313 19 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 1 As as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 2 expected expect VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 3 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 4 there there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 5 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 7 very very RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 8 significant significant JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 9 correlation correlation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 10 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 11 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 12 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 13 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 14 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 15 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 16 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 17 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 18 opposite opposite JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 19 direction direction NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 314 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 315 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 2 larger large JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 4 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 6 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 7 larger large JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 8 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 9 β β XX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 316 10 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 2 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 4 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 5 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 6 observed observe VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 9 faster fast RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 11 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 12 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 13 that that DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 14 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 317 15 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 1 That that DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 2 seems seem VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 3 unusual unusual JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 4 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 5 seems seem VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 6 strongly strongly RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 7 indicated indicate VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 8 by by IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 10 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 318 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 319 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 1 Population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 2 density density NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 3 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 5 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 6 site site NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 7 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 9 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 10 positive positive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 11 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 12 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 14 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 15 's 's POS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 16 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 17 density density NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 18 does do VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 19 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 320 20 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 321 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 1 There there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 3 faster fast JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 4 spread spread VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 5 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 6 poorer poor JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 7 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 322 8 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 323 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 1 Median median JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 2 age age NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 3 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 4 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 5 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 6 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 324 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 1 Spread Spread NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 3 faster fast JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 4 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 5 younger young JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 6 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 325 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 2 youth youth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 3 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 4 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 5 mobile mobile JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 6 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 7 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 8 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 9 more more RBR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 10 carefree carefree JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 326 11 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 327 1 • • NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 1 There there EX cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 4 slight slight JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 5 negative negative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 6 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 7 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 8 wealth wealth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 9 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 10 per per IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 11 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 12 capita capita NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 13 income income NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 328 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 1 Spread Spread NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 3 slower slow JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 4 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 5 richer rich JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 6 countries country NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 329 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 1 Perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 2 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 3 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 4 due due JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 5 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 6 more more JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 7 risk risk NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 9 aversion aversion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 11 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 12 higher high JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 13 levels level NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 14 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 15 education education NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 16 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 17 perhaps perhaps RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 18 less less JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 19 use use NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 20 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 21 public public JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 22 transportation transportation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 330 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 1 Whatever whatever WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 3 cause cause NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 4 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 6 does do VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 7 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 8 an an DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 9 impact impact NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 11 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 12 relatively relatively RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 13 smaller small JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 14 than than IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 16 other other JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 17 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 331 18 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 332 1 14 14 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 332 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 333 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 334 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 7 Figure figure NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 8 5 5 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 9 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 10 Optimal Optimal NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 11 feature feature NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 12 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 13 predict predict VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 14 β β NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 16 within within IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 17 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 18 cross cross NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 19 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 20 valudation valudation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 21 setting set VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 22 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 23 select select VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 24 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 25 regularization regularization NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 26 parameter parameter NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 335 27 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 2 gray gray JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 3 region region NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 4 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 6 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 7 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 9 predicted predict VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 10 value value NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 11 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 12 each each DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 13 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 336 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 2 R r NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 3 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 4 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 5 0.57 0.57 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 6 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 7 so so CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 9 cross cross NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 10 - - NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 11 validation validation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 12 based base VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 13 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 14 linear linear JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 15 feature feature NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 16 captures capture VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 17 57 57 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 18 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 19 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 20 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 21 residual residual JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 22 variance variance NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 337 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 2 now now RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 3 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 4 regularized regularized JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 5 regression regression NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 6 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 7 perform perform VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 9 linear linear JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 10 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 11 fit fit JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 12 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 13 explain explain VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 14 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 338 15 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 1 To to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 2 make make VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 4 weight weight NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 5 magnitudes magnitude NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 6 meaningful meaningful JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 9 normalize normalize VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 11 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 339 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 2 use use VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 4 leave leave NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 5 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 6 one one CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 7 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 8 out out NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 9 cross cross NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 10 validation validation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 11 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 12 select select VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 13 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 14 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 15 regularization regularization NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 16 parameter parameter NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 18 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 19 happens happen VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 20 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 21 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 22 20 20 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 340 24 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 2 optimal optimal JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 3 regularized regularize VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 4 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 5 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 6 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 7 regularization regularization NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 8 parameter parameter NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 9 gives give VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 10 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 11 new new JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 12 feature feature NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 13 X x NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 14 = = SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 15 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 16 1 1 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 341 17 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 342 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 342 2 Del Del NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 342 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 342 4 + + . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 1 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 2 2 2 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 3 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 5 Pop pop NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 343 7 + + . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 1 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 2 3 3 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 3 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 5 Age age NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 7 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 8 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 9 4 4 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 344 10 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 345 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 345 2 Wlth Wlth NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 345 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 345 4 + + . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 346 1 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 346 2 5 5 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 1 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 3 Inc Inc NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 5 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 6 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 7 6 6 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 8 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 10 Pov Pov NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 12 + + CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 13 w w NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 14 7 7 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 15 · · NFP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 17 Pop pop NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 18 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 19 Init Init NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 347 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 2 learned learned JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 3 weights weight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 4 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 6 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 7 ranges range NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 8 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 9 yield yield VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 10 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 11 cross cross JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 12 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 13 validation validation NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 14 error error NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 15 within within IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 16 10 10 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 17 % % NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 18 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 19 optimal optimal NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 20 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 21 shown show VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 22 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 23 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 24 table table NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 25 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 348 26 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 349 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 2 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 3 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 4 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 5 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 6 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 7 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 8 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 9 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 10 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 11 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 12 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 13 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 15 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 16 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 17 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 18 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 19 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 20 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 21 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 350 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 351 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 352 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 353 1 https://doi.org/10 https://doi.org/10 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 353 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 354 1 1101 1101 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 2 predictions prediction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 3 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 4 β β NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 5 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 6 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 7 feature feature NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 8 are be VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 9 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 10 shown show VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 11 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 12 Figure Figure NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 13 5 5 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 355 14 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 2 statistical statistical JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 3 regression regression NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 4 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 5 using use VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 6 these these DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 7 data datum NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 8 produces produce VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 9 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 10 fit fit NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 11 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 12 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 13 statistical statistical JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 14 regression regression NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 15 model model NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 16 also also RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 17 identifies identify VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 18 positive positive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 19 weights weight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 20 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 21 delay delay NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 22 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 23 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 24 density density NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 25 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 26 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 27 initial initial JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 28 site site NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 29 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 30 poverty poverty NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 32 that that DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 33 order order NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 34 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 35 significance significance NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 356 36 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 1 As as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 3 observed observe VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 4 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 6 correlations correlation NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 7 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 8 Delay Delay NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 9 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 10 Poverty Poverty NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 11 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 12 Population Population NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 13 Density Density NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 14 at at IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 15 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 16 initial initial JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 17 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 18 site site NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 19 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 20 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 21 positive positive JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 22 weights weight NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 357 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 1 Age age NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 2 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 3 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 4 strong strong JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 5 negative negative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 6 weight weight NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 358 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 1 Wealth wealth NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 2 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 3 income income NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 4 have have VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 5 weak weak JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 6 negative negative JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 7 effects effect NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 8 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 9 but but CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 10 non non JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 11 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 12 zero zero CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 359 13 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 2 population population NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 3 density density NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 4 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 5 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 6 country country NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 7 as as IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 8 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 9 whole whole NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 10 seems seem VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 11 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 12 have have VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 13 no no DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 14 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 15 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 16 with with IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 17 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 18 weight weight NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 19 range range NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 20 that that WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 21 includes include VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 22 0 0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 360 23 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 361 1 16 16 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 361 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 1 CC CC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 2 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 3 BY BY NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 4 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 5 NC NC NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 6 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 7 ND ND NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 9 International international JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 10 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 12 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 13 made make VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 14 available available JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 15 under under IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 16 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 17 author author NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 18 / / SYM cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 19 funder funder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 20 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 21 who who WP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 22 has have VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 23 granted grant VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 24 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 25 a a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 26 license license NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 27 to to TO cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 28 display display VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 29 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 30 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 31 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 32 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 362 33 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 1 is be VBZ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 2 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 4 which which WDT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 5 was be VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 6 not not RB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 7 peer peer NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 8 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 9 reviewed review VBN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 363 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 2 copyright copyright NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 3 holder holder NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 4 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 5 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 6 preprint preprint NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 364 7 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 365 1 https://doi.org/10 https://doi.org/10 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 365 2 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 366 1 1101 1101 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 366 2 _SP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 367 1 Learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 367 2 From from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 367 3 Data data NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 367 4 : : : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 368 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 368 2 Short Short NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 368 3 Course course NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 368 4 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 369 1 amlbook amlbook NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 369 2 Infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 369 3 diseases disease NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 369 4 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 369 5 humans human NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 2 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 3 theory theory NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 4 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 5 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 6 Multiscale multiscale JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 7 mobility mobility NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 8 networks network NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 9 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 11 spatial spatial JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 12 spreading spreading NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 13 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 370 15 diseases disease NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 1 The the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 2 effect effect NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 3 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 4 travel travel NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 5 restrictions restriction NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 6 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 7 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 8 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 9 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 11 2019 2019 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 12 novel novel NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 371 13 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 1 Infected infected JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 2 people people NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 3 without without IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 4 symptoms symptom NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 5 might may MD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 6 be be VB cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 7 driving drive VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 8 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 9 spread spread NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 10 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 11 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 12 more more JJR cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 13 than than IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 15 realized realize VBD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 16 Geographic geographic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 17 distribution distribution NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 18 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 19 covid-19 covid-19 CD cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 20 cases case NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 21 worldwide worldwide VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 22 Infectious infectious JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 23 disease disease NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 24 modeling modeling NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 25 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 26 social social JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 27 contagion contagion NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 28 in in IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 29 networks network NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 30 Networks network NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 31 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 32 epidemic epidemic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 372 33 models model NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 1 A a DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 2 contribution contribution NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 3 to to IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 4 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 5 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 6 theory theory NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 7 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 9 Projecting project VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 10 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 11 transmission transmission NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 12 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 13 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 373 14 sars sars NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 1 -cov-2 -cov-2 : cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 2 through through IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 4 post post JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 5 - - JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 6 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 374 7 period period NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 1 Machine machine NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 2 learning learn VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 3 the the DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 4 phenomenology phenomenology NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 5 of of IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 6 covid-19 covid-19 NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 7 from from IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 8 early early JJ cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 9 infection infection NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 10 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 11 Acknowledgments acknowledgment NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 375 12 . . . cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 2 thank thank VBP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 3 Abhijit Abhijit NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 4 Patel Patel NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 5 , , , cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 6 Sibel Sibel NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 7 Adali Adali NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 8 and and CC cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 9 Zainab Zainab NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 10 Magdon Magdon NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 11 - - HYPH cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 12 Ismail Ismail NNP cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 13 for for IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 14 provoking provoke VBG cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 15 discussions discussion NNS cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 16 on on IN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 17 this this DT cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 18 topic topic NN cord-309096-vwbpkpxd 376 19 . . .