id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	1	key	key	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	2	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	3	cord-340375-lhv83zac	cord-340375-lhv83zac	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	4	authors	author	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	5	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	6	Bliznashki	Bliznashki	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	7	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	8	Svetoslav	Svetoslav	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	9	title	title	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	10	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	11	A	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	12	Bayesian	Bayesian	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	13	Logistic	Logistic	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	14	Growth	Growth	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	15	Model	Model	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	16	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	17	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	18	Spread	Spread	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	19	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	20	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	21	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	22	New	New	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	23	York	York	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	24	date	date	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	25	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	26	2020	2020	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	27	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	28	04	04	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	29	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	30	07	07	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	31	journal	journal	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	32	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	33	nan	nan	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	34	DOI	DOI	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	1	35	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	2	1	10.1101/2020.04.05.20054577	10.1101/2020.04.05.20054577	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	3	1	sha	sha	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	3	2	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	3	3	cbde80d83d9b50685434766778f1b84cbe2d9a56	cbde80d83d9b50685434766778f1b84cbe2d9a56	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	4	1	doc_id	doc_id	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	5	1	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	5	2	340375	340375	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	5	3	cord_uid	cord_uid	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	5	4	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	1	lhv83zac	lhv83zac	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	2	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	3	use	use	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	4	Bayesian	Bayesian	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	5	Estimation	Estimation	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	6	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	8	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	9	growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	10	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	11	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	12	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	14	estimate	estimate	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	16	spread	spread	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	17	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	19	coronavirus	coronavirus	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	20	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	21	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	22	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	23	state	state	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	24	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	25	New	New	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	26	York	York	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	6	27	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	1	Models	model	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	2	weighting	weight	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	3	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	4	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	5	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	6	equally	equally	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	7	as	as	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	8	well	well	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	9	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	10	models	model	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	11	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	12	normal	normal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	13	error	error	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	14	structure	structure	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	15	prove	prove	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	16	inadequate	inadequate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	17	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	18	model	model	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	19	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	20	process	process	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	21	accurately	accurately	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	7	22	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	1	On	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	3	other	other	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	4	hand	hand	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	5	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	7	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	8	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	9	larger	large	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	10	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	11	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	12	more	more	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	13	recent	recent	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	14	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	15	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	16	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	17	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	18	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	19	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	20	distributed	distribute	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	21	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	22	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	23	reasonably	reasonably	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	24	capable	capable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	25	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	26	making	make	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	27	at	at	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	28	least	least	JJS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	29	short	short	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	30	term	term	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	31	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	8	32	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	9	1	1	1	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	9	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	10	1	Introduction	introduction	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	10	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	2	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	3	growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	4	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	5	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	6	frequently	frequently	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	7	used	use	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	8	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	9	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	10	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	11	model	model	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	13	spread	spread	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	14	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	15	viral	viral	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	16	diseases	disease	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	17	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	18	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	19	covid-19	covid-19	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	20	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	11	21	particular	particular	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	12	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	12	2	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	12	3	Batista	Batista	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	12	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	12	5	2020	2020	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	12	6	;	;	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	1	Wu	Wu	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	2	et	et	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	3	al	al	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	4	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	5	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	6	2020	2020	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	13	8	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	2	differential	differential	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	3	equation	equation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	5	given	give	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	6	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	7	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	8	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	14	10	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	1	where	where	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	2	C	C	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	5	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	6	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	7	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	8	infected	infected	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	9	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	10	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	11	r	r	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	12	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	13	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	14	infection	infection	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	15	rate	rate	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	16	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	17	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	18	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	21	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	22	asymptote	asymptote	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	23	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	24	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	25	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	26	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	27	limit	limit	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	28	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	29	individuals	individual	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	30	infected	infect	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	31	during	during	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	32	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	33	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	15	35	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	1	Unlike	unlike	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	2	other	other	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	3	models	model	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	5	like	like	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	6	SIR	SIR	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	7	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	8	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	16	9	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	1	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	2	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	3	an	an	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	4	explicit	explicit	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	5	analytical	analytical	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	6	solution	solution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	7	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	10	where	where	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	11	A=(K	A=(K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	12	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	13	C	C	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	14	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	16	/C	/c	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	17	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	18	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	19	C	c	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	20	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	21	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	22	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	23	initial	initial	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	24	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	25	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	26	infectees	infectee	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	17	27	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	18	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	18	2	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	18	3	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	18	4	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	18	5	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	1	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	2	can	can	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	3	easily	easily	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	4	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	5	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	6	via	via	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	7	Least	Least	JJS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	8	Squares	Squares	NNPS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	10	LS	ls	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	12	but	but	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	13	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	14	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	15	note	note	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	16	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	17	use	use	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	18	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	19	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	20	approach	approach	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	21	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	22	allows	allow	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	23	us	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	24	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	25	make	make	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	26	use	use	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	27	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	28	explicit	explicit	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	29	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	30	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	31	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	32	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	33	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	34	make	make	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	35	probabilistic	probabilistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	36	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	19	37	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	2	apply	apply	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	4	above	above	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	5	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	6	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	8	state	state	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	9	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	10	New	New	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	11	York	York	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	12	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	13	represents	represent	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	14	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	15	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	16	geographically	geographically	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	17	homogenous	homogenous	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	18	population	population	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	19	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	20	sufficient	sufficient	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	21	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	22	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	23	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	24	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	25	build	build	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	26	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	27	reliable	reliable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	28	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	29	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	30	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	31	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	32	affected	affect	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	33	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	34	different	different	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	35	trends	trend	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	36	present	present	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	37	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	38	different	different	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	39	regions	region	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	20	40	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	21	1	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	21	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	22	1	Simulation	simulation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	22	2	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	22	3	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	2	begin	begin	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	3	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	4	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	5	simple	simple	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	6	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	7	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	8	estimates	estimate	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	10	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	11	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	12	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	13	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	14	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	15	based	base	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	16	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	17	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	18	assumption	assumption	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	19	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	20	normally	normally	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	21	distributed	distribute	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	22	homoscedastic	homoscedastic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	23	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	23	24	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	2	use	use	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	4	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	5	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	6	28	28	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	7	consecutive	consecutive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	8	days	day	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	9	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	11	epidemic	epidemic	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	12	beginning	beginning	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	13	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	14	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	15	4	4	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	16	th	th	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	17	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	18	March	March	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	20	11	11	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	21	infectees	infectee	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	22	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	23	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	24	ending	end	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	25	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	26	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	27	31	31	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	28	st	st	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	29	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	30	March	March	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	31	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	32	75832	75832	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	33	infectees	infectees	NNPS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	35	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	24	36	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	1	Prior	prior	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	2	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	3	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	5	standardized	standardize	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	6	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	7	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	8	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	9	dividing	divide	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	10	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	11	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	12	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	13	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	14	70000	70000	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	15	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	16	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	17	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	18	avoid	avoid	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	19	numerical	numerical	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	20	problems	problem	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	21	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	22	after	after	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	23	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	24	posteriors	posterior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	25	were	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	26	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	27	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	28	back	back	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	29	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	30	transformed	transform	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	31	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	32	results	result	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	33	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	34	their	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	35	original	original	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	36	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	25	37	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	2	assumed	assume	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	5	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	6	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	7	normally	normally	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	8	distributed	distribute	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	9	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	10	mean	mean	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	11	equal	equal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	12	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	13	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	14	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	15	standard	standard	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	16	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	18	σ	σ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	20	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	21	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	22	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	23	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	26	24	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	2	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	4	blockwise	blockwise	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	5	Random	Random	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	6	Walk	Walk	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	7	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	8	algorithm	algorithm	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	9	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	10	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	11	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	12	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	13	sample	sample	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	14	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	16	joint	joint	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	17	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	18	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	19	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	21	four	four	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	22	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	23	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	24	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	25	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	26	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	27	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	28	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	29	A	A	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	30	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	31	r	r	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	32	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	33	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	34	σ	σ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	27	36	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	2	proposal	proposal	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	3	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	4	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	5	multivariate	multivariate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	6	normal	normal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	7	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	8	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	9	variance	variance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	10	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	11	covariance	covariance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	12	matrix	matrix	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	13	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	14	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	16	basis	basis	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	17	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	18	pilot	pilot	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	19	runs	run	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	28	20	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	1	Uninformative	uninformative	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	2	improper	improper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	3	uniform	uniform	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	4	priors	prior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	5	ranging	range	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	6	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	7	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	29	8	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	30	1	+	+	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	1	∞	∞	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	2	were	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	3	employed	employ	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	5	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	6	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	7	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	8	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	9	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	31	10	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	1	A	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	2	pilot	pilot	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	3	chain	chain	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	4	showed	show	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	5	an	an	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	6	acceptance	acceptance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	7	rate	rate	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	8	within	within	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	10	optimal	optimal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	11	range	range	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	12	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	13	23	23	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	14	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	16	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	17	Chib	Chib	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	18	&	&	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	19	Greenberg	Greenberg	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	20	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	21	1995	1995	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	32	22	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	11	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	12	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	13	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	14	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	15	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	33	16	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	34	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	2	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	3	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	4	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	5	peer	peer	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	7	reviewed	review	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	35	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	36	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	37	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	37	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	3	r=0.34	r=0.34	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	4	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	5	95	95	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	6	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	7	CI=[0.31	CI=[0.31	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	8	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	9	0.37	0.37	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	10	]	]	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	38	12	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	2	see	see	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	5	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	6	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	7	very	very	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	8	similar	similar	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	9	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	11	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	12	EAPs	eap	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	13	reported	report	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	14	above	above	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	15	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	16	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	17	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	18	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	19	expected	expect	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	20	given	give	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	21	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	22	uninformative	uninformative	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	23	nature	nature	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	24	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	25	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	26	priors	prior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	39	27	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	1	Still	still	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	4	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	5	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	6	gives	give	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	7	slightly	slightly	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	8	wider	wide	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	9	intervals	interval	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	10	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	12	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	13	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	14	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	15	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	16	'll	will	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	17	see	see	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	18	below	below	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	19	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	20	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	21	positive	positive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	40	22	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	41	1	conservative	conservative	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	41	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	1	This	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	3	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	4	commonly	commonly	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	5	observed	observe	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	6	situation	situation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	7	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	8	phenomenological	phenomenological	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	10	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	11	purely	purely	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	12	datadriven	datadriven	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	14	models	model	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	15	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	16	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	17	type	type	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	42	18	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	1	At	at	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	3	time	time	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	4	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	5	writing	write	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	6	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	7	note	note	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	8	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	9	there	there	EX
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	10	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	11	information	information	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	12	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	13	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	14	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	15	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	16	infectees	infectee	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	17	three	three	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	18	days	day	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	19	after	after	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	21	28	28	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	22	days	day	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	23	used	use	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	24	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	25	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	26	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	27	fit	fit	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	28	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	29	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	43	30	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	2	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	4	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	5	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	6	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	7	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	8	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	9	predict	predict	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	11	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	12	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	13	future	future	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	14	infectees	infectee	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	44	15	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	1	More	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	2	precisely	precisely	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	3	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	5	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	7	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	8	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	10	including	include	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	11	σ	σ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	13	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	14	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	15	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	16	simulate	simulate	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	17	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	18	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	19	future	future	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	20	values	value	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	21	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	22	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	23	thereby	thereby	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	24	constructing	construct	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	25	what	what	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	26	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	27	known	know	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	28	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	29	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	30	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	31	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	45	32	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	1	For	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	2	example	example	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	3	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	5	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	6	given	give	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	7	future	future	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	8	day	day	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	10	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	11	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	13	28	28	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	14	th	th	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	15	day	day	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	16	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	17	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	18	sampled	sample	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	19	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	20	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	21	values	value	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	22	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	23	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	46	24	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	1	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	2	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	3	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	5	each	each	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	6	sample	sample	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	8	plugged	plug	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	9	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	11	t=28	t=28	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	12	value	value	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	13	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	14	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	15	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	16	obtain	obtain	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	17	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	18	mean	mean	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	19	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	20	value	value	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	21	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	22	then	then	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	23	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	24	added	add	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	25	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	26	random	random	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	27	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	28	generated	generate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	29	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	30	N(0	N(0	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	31	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	32	σ	σ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	33	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	34	where	where	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	35	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	36	value	value	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	37	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	38	σ	σ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	39	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	40	sampled	sample	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	41	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	42	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	43	posterior	posterior	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	44	alongside	alongside	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	45	actual	actual	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	46	predicted	predict	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	47	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	48	other	other	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	49	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	50	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	51	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	52	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	53	given	give	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	54	step	step	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	47	55	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	2	resulting	result	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	3	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	4	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	5	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	6	an	an	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	7	observed	observed	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	8	mean	mean	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	9	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	10	variance	variance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	11	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	12	etc	etc	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	48	13	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	1	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	2	can	can	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	3	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	4	used	use	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	5	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	6	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	7	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	8	make	make	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	9	point	point	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	10	and/or	and/or	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	11	interval	interval	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	12	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	14	HDIs	HDIs	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	16	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	17	usual	usual	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	49	18	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	1	Some	some	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	2	results	result	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	3	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	4	shown	show	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	5	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	6	Table	Table	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	50	7	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	2	see	see	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	5	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	6	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	7	fail	fail	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	8	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	9	capture	capture	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	10	even	even	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	12	immediate	immediate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	13	true	true	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	14	value	value	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	15	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	16	once	once	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	17	again	again	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	18	suggests	suggest	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	19	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	20	indeed	indeed	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	21	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	22	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	23	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	24	inadequate	inadequate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	25	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	26	fails	fail	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	27	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	28	capture	capture	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	29	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	30	true	true	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	31	trends	trend	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	32	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	33	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	34	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	51	35	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	1	Note	note	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	3	however	however	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	5	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	7	ranges	range	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	8	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	10	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	11	intervals	interval	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	12	increase	increase	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	13	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	14	later	later	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	15	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	16	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	17	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	18	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	19	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	20	desirable	desirable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	21	quality	quality	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	22	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	23	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	24	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	25	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	26	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	27	intrinsic	intrinsic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	28	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	29	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	30	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	31	approach	approach	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	32	employed	employ	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	33	here	here	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	52	34	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	1	As	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	2	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	3	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	4	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	5	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	6	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	7	right	right	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	8	portion	portion	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	10	suggests	suggest	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	11	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	13	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	14	converges	converge	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	15	too	too	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	16	quickly	quickly	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	17	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	18	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	19	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	20	asymptote	asymptote	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	21	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	22	hence	hence	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	23	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	24	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	25	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	26	too	too	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	27	low	low	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	28	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	29	probably	probably	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	30	too	too	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	31	narrow	narrow	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	53	32	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	1	This	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	2	observation	observation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	4	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	5	surprising	surprising	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	6	given	give	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	7	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	8	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	9	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	10	well	well	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	11	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	12	known	know	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	13	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	14	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	15	simple	simple	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	16	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	17	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	18	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	19	applicable	applicable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	20	only	only	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	21	during	during	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	22	specific	specific	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	23	stages	stage	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	24	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	25	an	an	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	26	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	27	and/or	and/or	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	28	when	when	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	29	enough	enough	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	30	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	31	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	32	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	33	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	34	see	see	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	35	Wu	Wu	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	36	et	et	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	37	al	al	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	38	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	39	2020	2020	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	40	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	41	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	42	review	review	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	43	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	54	44	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	1	Possible	possible	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	2	solutions	solution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	3	include	include	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	4	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	5	improving	improve	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	7	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	8	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	9	e.g.	e.g.	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	10	Richards	Richards	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	11	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	12	1959	1959	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	14	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	15	adding	add	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	16	more	more	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	17	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	18	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	19	can	can	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	20	account	account	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	21	better	well	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	22	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	23	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	24	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	25	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	26	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	27	observed	observed	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	28	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	29	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	30	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	31	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	32	symmetric	symmetric	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	33	S	s	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	34	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	35	shaped	shape	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	36	curve	curve	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	37	suggested	suggest	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	38	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	39	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	40	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	41	growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	42	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	43	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	44	adjusting	adjust	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	45	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	46	prior	prior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	47	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	48	so	so	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	49	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	50	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	51	reflect	reflect	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	52	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	53	expectations	expectation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	54	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	55	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	56	much	much	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	57	higher	high	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	58	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	59	asymptote	asymptote	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	60	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	61	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	62	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	63	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	64	switching	switch	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	65	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	66	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	67	different	different	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	68	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	69	preferably	preferably	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	70	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	71	mechanistic	mechanistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	72	approach	approach	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	73	altogether	altogether	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	55	74	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	1	Instead	instead	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	4	attempted	attempt	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	5	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	6	construct	construct	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	7	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	8	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	9	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	10	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	11	within	within	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	13	same	same	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	14	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	15	growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	16	paradigm	paradigm	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	18	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	19	different	different	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	20	way	way	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	21	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	22	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	23	introduced	introduce	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	24	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	25	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	26	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	27	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	28	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	29	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	30	later	later	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	31	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	32	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	33	receiving	receive	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	34	higher	high	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	35	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	36	than	than	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	37	older	old	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	38	ones	one	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	39	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	40	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	41	hope	hope	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	42	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	43	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	44	will	will	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	45	alleviate	alleviate	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	46	some	some	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	47	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	48	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	49	problems	problem	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	50	observed	observe	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	51	above	above	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	56	52	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	1	Specifically	specifically	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	4	weighted	weight	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	6	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	7	according	accord	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	8	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	9	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	10	Rectified	rectify	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	57	11	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	58	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	59	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	59	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	59	3	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	59	4	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	59	5	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	59	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	60	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	61	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	62	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	62	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	63	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	63	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	1	Linear	linear	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	3	like	like	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	4	function	function	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	5	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	6	e.g.	e.g.	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	7	Glorot	Glorot	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	8	et	et	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	9	al	al	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	10	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	11	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	12	2011	2011	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	14	whereby	whereby	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	16	first	first	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	17	20	20	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	18	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	19	received	receive	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	20	constant	constant	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	22	0.008	0.008	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	24	low	low	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	25	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	26	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	27	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	28	last	last	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	29	8	8	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	30	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	31	received	receive	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	32	linearly	linearly	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	33	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	34	higher	high	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	35	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	36	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	37	last	last	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	38	8	8	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	39	weights=[0.77	weights=[0.77	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	40	1.55	1.55	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	41	2.32	2.32	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	42	3.09	3.09	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	43	3.87	3.87	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	44	4.64	4.64	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	45	5.41	5.41	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	46	6.19	6.19	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	47	]	]	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	48	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	64	49	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	2	idea	idea	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	3	behind	behind	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	4	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	5	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	6	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	7	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	8	try	try	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	9	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	10	force	force	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	12	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	14	account	account	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	15	better	well	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	16	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	17	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	18	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	19	following	follow	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	21	approximately	approximately	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	22	linear	linear	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	23	trend	trend	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	24	observed	observe	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	25	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	26	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	27	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	28	half	half	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	29	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	30	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	65	31	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	66	1	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	66	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	1	Note	note	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	2	also	also	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	5	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	6	sum	sum	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	7	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	8	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	9	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	10	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	11	original	original	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	12	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	14	28	28	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	67	16	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	2	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	3	pattern	pattern	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	5	shown	show	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	6	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	7	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	68	8	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	69	1	3	3	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	69	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	1	In	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	3	subsequent	subsequent	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	4	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	6	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	8	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	9	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	10	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	11	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	12	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	13	weigh	weigh	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	14	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	15	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	16	function	function	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	17	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	19	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	70	20	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	1	Following	follow	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	2	Simeckova	Simeckova	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	3	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	4	2005	2005	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	7	assuming	assume	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	8	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	9	have	have	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	10	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	11	Y	Y	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	12	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	13	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	14	…	…	NFP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	15	Y	y	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	16	n	n	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	17	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	18	Y	Y	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	19	i	i	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	20	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	21	density	density	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	71	22	f	f	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	72	1	i	i	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	2	Y	y	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	3	i	i	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	4	|θ	|θ	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	6	where	where	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	7	θ	θ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	10	vector	vector	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	11	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	12	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	14	see	see	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	15	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	16	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	17	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	19	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	20	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	21	apply	apply	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	22	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	23	weights	weight	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	73	24	vector	vector	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	74	1	w=[w	w=[w	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	74	2	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	74	3	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	74	4	…	…	NFP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	75	1	w	w	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	75	2	n	n	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	75	3	]	]	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	75	4	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	76	1	If	if	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	76	2	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	76	3	let	let	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	76	4	l	l	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	76	5	i	i	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	77	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	77	2	θ)=log(f	θ)=log(f	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	1	i	i	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	3	Y	Y	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	4	i	i	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	5	|θ	|θ	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	8	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	10	weighted	weighted	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	11	loglikelihood	loglikelihood	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	12	function	function	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	13	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	14	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	15	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	16	becomes	become	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	78	17	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	79	1	3	3	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	79	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	80	1	Simulation	simulation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	80	2	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	80	3	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	2	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	4	above	above	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	5	weighing	weigh	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	6	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	7	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	8	repeated	repeat	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	10	previous	previous	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	11	simulation	simulation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	81	12	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	1	In	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	2	that	that	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	3	sense	sense	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	5	altered	alter	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	7	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	8	function	function	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	9	while	while	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	10	leaving	leave	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	12	prior	prior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	13	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	14	intact	intact	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	82	15	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	1	Everything	everything	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	2	else	else	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	3	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	4	including	include	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	6	simulation	simulation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	7	details	detail	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	8	such	such	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	9	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	10	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	11	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	12	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	13	draws	draw	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	14	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	15	thinning	thinning	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	16	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	17	etc	etc	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	18	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	20	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	21	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	22	same	same	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	23	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	24	reported	report	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	25	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	26	Section	section	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	27	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	83	28	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	84	1	Again	again	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	84	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	84	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	84	4	observed	observe	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	84	5	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	85	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	86	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	86	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	86	3	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	86	4	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	86	5	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	86	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	87	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	88	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	89	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	89	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	90	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	90	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	1	good	good	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	2	convergence	convergence	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	3	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	4	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	5	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	7	see	see	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	8	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	91	9	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	1	4	4	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	2	depicting	depict	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	3	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	4	traceplot	traceplot	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	5	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	7	histogram	histogram	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	8	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	10	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	11	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	92	13	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	1	Table	table	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	2	3	3	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	3	gives	give	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	4	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	5	summary	summary	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	6	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	8	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	9	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	10	3	3	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	93	11	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	2	see	see	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	4	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	5	weighting	weighting	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	6	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	7	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	8	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	9	give	give	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	10	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	11	reasonable	reasonable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	12	results	result	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	13	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	14	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	16	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	17	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	19	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	20	asymptote	asymptote	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	94	21	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	95	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	96	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	96	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	96	3	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	96	4	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	96	5	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	96	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	97	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	98	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	99	1	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054577	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054577	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	99	2	doi	doi	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	99	3	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	1	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	2	preprint	preprint	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	4	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	5	equation	equation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	6	against	against	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	8	observed	observed	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	9	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	11	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	12	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	13	5	5	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	100	15	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	3	clear	clear	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	4	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	6	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	7	curve	curve	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	8	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	9	much	much	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	10	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	11	affected	affect	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	12	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	13	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	14	later	later	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	15	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	16	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	17	consequently	consequently	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	19	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	20	asymptote	asymptote	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	21	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	22	higher	high	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	23	than	than	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	24	before	before	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	25	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	26	compare	compare	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	27	also	also	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	28	Tables	table	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	29	3	3	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	30	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	31	1	1	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	101	32	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	102	1	Table	table	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	102	2	3	3	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	102	3	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	1	Means	mean	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	3	medians	median	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	5	standard	standard	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	6	deviations	deviation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	7	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	8	SD	SD	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	10	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	11	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	12	95	95	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	13	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	14	HDIs	hdi	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	15	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	16	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	17	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	18	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	19	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	103	20	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	1	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	2	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	3	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	5	posterior	posterior	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	6	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	7	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	8	second	second	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	10	weighted	weighted	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	12	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	104	13	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	105	1	Table	table	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	105	2	3	3	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	105	3	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	2	see	see	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	4	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	5	time	time	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	7	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	8	accurately	accurately	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	9	predicts	predict	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	10	two	two	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	11	consequent	consequent	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	12	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	13	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	14	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	15	fails	fail	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	16	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	17	predict	predict	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	19	third	third	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	106	20	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	1	This	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	3	still	still	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	4	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	5	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	6	satisfactory	satisfactory	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	7	performance	performance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	8	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	9	however	however	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	10	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	11	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	12	hints	hint	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	13	towards	towards	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	14	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	15	possibility	possibility	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	16	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	17	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	18	actual	actual	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	19	process	process	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	20	exhibits	exhibit	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	21	steeper	steep	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	22	rise	rise	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	23	than	than	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	24	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	25	one	one	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	26	suggested	suggest	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	27	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	28	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	29	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	107	30	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	1	In	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	3	same	same	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	4	way	way	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	5	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	6	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	7	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	8	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	10	HDIs	hdi	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	11	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	12	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	13	wide	wide	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	14	enough	enough	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	15	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	16	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	17	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	18	accommodate	accommodate	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	19	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	20	actual	actual	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	21	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	108	22	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	1	Looking	look	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	2	at	at	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	3	figures	figure	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	4	2	2	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	5	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	6	5	5	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	7	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	8	see	see	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	9	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	11	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	12	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	13	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	14	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	15	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	16	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	17	both	both	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	18	lack	lack	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	19	homoscedasticity	homoscedasticity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	20	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	21	possess	possess	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	22	an	an	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	23	auto	auto	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	24	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	25	correlated	correlate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	26	structure	structure	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	109	27	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	1	In	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	2	order	order	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	3	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	4	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	5	partially	partially	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	7	alleviate	alleviate	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	8	these	these	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	9	problems	problem	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	10	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	11	removed	remove	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	13	normality	normality	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	14	assumption	assumption	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	15	present	present	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	16	above	above	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	17	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	18	replaced	replace	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	19	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	20	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	21	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	22	assumption	assumption	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	23	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	24	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	25	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	26	follow	follow	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	27	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	28	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	29	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	30	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	31	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	32	location	location	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	33	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	34	equal	equal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	35	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	36	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	37	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	38	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	39	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	40	similar	similar	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	41	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	42	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	43	standard	standard	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	44	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	45	used	use	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	46	above	above	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	47	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	48	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	49	degrees	degree	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	50	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	51	freedom	freedom	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	52	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	53	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	54	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	55	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	56	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	57	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	58	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	59	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	60	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	61	see	see	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	62	Kruschke	Kruschke	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	63	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	64	2012	2012	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	65	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	66	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	67	same	same	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	68	approach	approach	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	69	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	70	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	71	context	context	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	72	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	73	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	74	linear	linear	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	75	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	76	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	110	77	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	2	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	4	same	same	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	5	weighing	weighing	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	6	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	7	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	8	above	above	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	9	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	10	introduced	introduce	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	12	two	two	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	13	new	new	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	14	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	16	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	17	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	18	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	19	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	20	describing	describe	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	21	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	22	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	23	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	24	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	25	governing	govern	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	26	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	27	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	28	's	's	POS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	29	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	111	30	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	2	again	again	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	3	proposed	propose	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	5	first	first	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	6	four	four	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	7	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	8	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	10	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	12	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	13	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	14	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	15	A	A	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	16	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	17	r	r	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	18	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	19	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	20	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	21	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	22	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	23	multivariate	multivariate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	24	normal	normal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	25	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	26	centered	center	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	27	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	28	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	29	previous	previous	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	30	values	value	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	31	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	32	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	33	chain	chain	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	34	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	35	scaled	scale	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	36	variance	variance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	37	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	38	covariance	covariance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	39	matrix	matrix	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	40	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	41	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	42	pilot	pilot	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	43	chains	chain	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	44	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	45	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	46	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	47	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	48	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	49	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	50	separately	separately	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	51	based	base	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	52	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	53	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	54	lognormal	lognormal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	55	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	56	4	4	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	57	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	58	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	59	transformed	transform	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	60	back	back	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	61	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	62	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	63	original	original	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	64	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	65	after	after	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	66	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	67	end	end	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	68	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	69	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	70	simulation	simulation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	112	71	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	1	30	30	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	2	million	million	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	3	samples	sample	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	4	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	6	posterior	posterior	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	7	were	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	8	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	9	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	10	every	every	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	11	300	300	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	12	th	th	XX
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	13	step	step	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	14	retained	retain	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	15	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	16	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	17	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	18	had	have	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	19	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	20	thinning	thinning	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	21	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	22	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	23	300	300	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	24	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	113	25	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	2	used	use	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	3	improper	improper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	4	uniform	uniform	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	5	priors	prior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	6	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	7	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	8	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	9	except	except	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	10	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	12	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	13	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	14	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	15	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	16	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	17	shifted	shift	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	18	exponential	exponential	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	19	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	20	mean	mean	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	21	equal	equal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	22	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	23	30	30	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	24	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	25	specified	specify	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	26	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	27	suggested	suggest	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	28	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	29	Kruschke	Kruschke	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	30	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	31	2012	2012	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	32	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	114	33	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	2	results	result	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	3	indicated	indicate	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	4	good	good	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	5	convergence	convergence	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	7	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	8	traceplot	traceplot	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	9	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	11	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	12	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	13	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	14	shown	show	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	15	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	16	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	115	17	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	116	1	6	6	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	1	below	below	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	2	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	3	histograms	histogram	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	4	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	6	posterior	posterior	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	7	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	8	all	all	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	9	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	10	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	11	shown	show	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	12	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	13	Appendix	Appendix	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	14	A	A	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	117	16	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	118	1	4	4	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	2	lognormal	lognormal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	3	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	5	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	6	symmetric	symmetric	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	7	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	8	hence	hence	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	9	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	10	use	use	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	11	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	12	actual	actual	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	13	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	14	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	15	Hastings	Hastings	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	16	acceptance	acceptance	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	17	probability	probability	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	19	e.g.	e.g.	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	20	Chib	Chib	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	21	&	&	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	22	Greenberg	Greenberg	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	23	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	24	1995	1995	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	26	during	during	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	27	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	28	step	step	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	29	sampling	sampling	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	30	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	31	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	32	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	33	posterior	posterior	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	119	34	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	120	1	Table	table	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	120	2	5	5	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	120	3	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	1	Means	mean	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	3	medians	median	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	5	standard	standard	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	6	deviations	deviation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	7	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	8	SD	SD	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	10	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	11	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	12	95	95	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	13	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	14	HDIs	hdi	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	15	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	16	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	17	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	18	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	19	Eq	Eq	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	121	20	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	1	2	2	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	2	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	3	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	5	posterior	posterior	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	6	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	7	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	8	last	last	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	9	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	122	10	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	1	Consistently	consistently	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	2	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	3	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	4	expectations	expectation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	6	95	95	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	7	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	8	HDI	hdi	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	9	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	11	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	12	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	13	suggests	suggest	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	14	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	15	noticeable	noticeable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	16	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	17	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	18	normality	normality	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	123	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	1	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	2	.	.	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	3	7	7	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	4	shows	show	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	6	predicted	predict	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	7	trend	trend	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	8	based	base	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	9	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	11	EAP	EAP	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	12	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	13	shown	show	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	14	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	15	Table	Table	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	16	5	5	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	124	17	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	3	Table	Table	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	4	6	6	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	5	specifies	specify	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	7	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	8	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	9	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	11	next	next	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	12	7	7	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	13	days	day	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	14	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	15	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	16	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	17	estimate	estimate	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	18	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	19	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	20	final	final	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	21	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	22	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	23	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	24	infectees	infectee	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	125	25	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	2	see	see	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	4	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	5	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	6	accurately	accurately	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	7	predicts	predict	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	8	at	at	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	9	least	least	RBS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	10	three	three	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	11	future	future	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	12	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	13	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	126	14	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	1	In	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	3	next	next	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	4	several	several	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	5	days	day	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	7	should	should	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	8	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	9	able	able	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	10	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	11	observe	observe	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	12	how	how	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	13	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	14	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	15	deals	deal	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	16	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	17	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	18	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	19	further	far	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	20	away	away	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	21	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	22	time	time	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	23	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	127	24	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	128	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	129	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	129	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	129	3	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	129	4	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	129	5	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	129	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	130	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	131	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	132	1	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054577	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054577	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	132	2	doi	doi	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	132	3	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	133	1	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	133	2	preprint	preprint	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	134	1	As	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	134	2	can	can	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	134	3	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	134	4	seen	see	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	134	5	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	135	1	Appendix	Appendix	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	135	2	A	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	1	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	2	posteriors	posterior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	3	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	4	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	5	different	different	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	6	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	7	no	no	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	8	longer	longer	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	9	resemble	resemble	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	10	parametric	parametric	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	11	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	12	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	13	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	14	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	15	previous	previous	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	16	two	two	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	17	models	model	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	19	posteriors	posterior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	20	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	21	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	22	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	23	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	24	A	A	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	25	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	26	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	27	r	r	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	28	definitely	definitely	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	29	resemble	resemble	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	30	normal	normal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	31	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	32	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	33	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	34	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	35	while	while	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	36	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	37	σ	σ	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	38	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	39	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	40	pronouncedly	pronouncedly	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	41	positively	positively	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	42	skewed	skewed	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	43	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	44	thus	thus	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	45	resembles	resemble	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	46	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	47	gamma	gamma	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	48	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	49	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	136	50	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	1	Nevertheless	nevertheless	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	2	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	3	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	4	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	5	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	6	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	7	best	well	RBS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	8	suited	suit	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	9	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	11	modeled	model	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	12	phenomenon	phenomenon	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	137	13	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	138	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	139	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	140	1	https	https	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	140	2	:	:	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	141	1	//doi.org/10.1101	//doi.org/10.1101	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	141	2	//doi.org/10	//doi.org/10	XX
cord-340375-lhv83zac	141	3	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	142	1	/2020	/2020	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	143	1	5	5	LS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	143	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	144	1	Discussion	discussion	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	144	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	2	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	4	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	5	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	6	growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	7	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	8	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	9	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	10	weighted	weighted	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	11	likelihood	likelihood	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	12	function	function	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	13	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	14	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	15	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	16	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	17	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	18	imposed	impose	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	19	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	21	error	error	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	22	structure	structure	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	23	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	24	able	able	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	25	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	26	make	make	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	27	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	28	short	short	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	29	term	term	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	30	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	31	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	32	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	33	spread	spread	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	34	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	35	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	36	disease	disease	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	145	37	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	2	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	3	estimation	estimation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	4	gives	give	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	5	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	6	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	7	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	8	than	than	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	9	traditional	traditional	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	10	Least	Least	JJS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	11	Squares	Squares	NNPS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	12	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	13	Maximum	Maximum	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	14	Likelihood	Likelihood	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	15	approaches	approach	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	16	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	17	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	18	accurate	accurate	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	19	interval	interval	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	20	estimates	estimate	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	146	21	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	1	Moreover	moreover	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	4	Bayesian	bayesian	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	5	posteriors	posterior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	7	including	include	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	8	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	9	predictive	predictive	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	10	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	12	have	have	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	13	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	14	straightforward	straightforward	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	15	probabilistic	probabilistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	16	interpretation	interpretation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	17	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	18	can	can	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	19	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	20	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	21	said	say	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	22	about	about	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	23	traditional	traditional	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	24	frequentist	frequentist	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	25	Confidence	confidence	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	26	Intervals	Intervals	NNPS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	147	27	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	1	As	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	2	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	3	rule	rule	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	6	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	7	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	8	show	show	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	9	high	high	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	10	correlations	correlation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	11	between	between	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	13	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	14	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	15	makes	make	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	16	algorithms	algorithm	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	17	like	like	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	18	blockwise	blockwise	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	19	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	20	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	21	Hastings	Hastings	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	22	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	23	effective	effective	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	24	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	25	general	general	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	26	than	than	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	27	algorithms	algorithm	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	28	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	29	explore	explore	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	30	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	31	single	single	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	32	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	33	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	34	at	at	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	35	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	36	time	time	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	37	such	such	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	38	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	39	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	40	Gibbs	Gibbs	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	41	Sampler	Sampler	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	42	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	43	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	44	componentwise	componentwise	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	45	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	46	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	47	Hastings	Hastings	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	148	48	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	2	fact	fact	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	3	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	4	some	some	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	5	posteriors	posterior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	6	lack	lack	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	7	closed	closed	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	8	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	9	form	form	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	10	solutions	solution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	11	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	12	another	another	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	13	impediment	impediment	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	14	when	when	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	15	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	16	comes	come	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	17	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	19	Gibbs	Gibbs	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	20	Sampler	Sampler	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	21	but	but	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	22	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	23	necessarily	necessarily	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	24	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	25	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	26	use	use	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	27	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	28	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	29	componentwise	componentwise	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	30	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	31	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	32	Hastings	Hastings	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	33	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	34	demonstrated	demonstrate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	35	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	36	Section	section	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	37	3	3	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	149	38	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	2	weighing	weighing	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	3	scheme	scheme	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	4	employed	employ	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	5	here	here	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	6	proves	prove	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	7	beneficial	beneficial	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	8	over	over	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	9	modeling	model	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	10	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	11	raw	raw	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	12	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	13	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	14	forcing	force	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	16	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	17	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	18	pay	pay	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	19	more	more	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	20	attention	attention	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	21	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	22	more	more	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	23	recent	recent	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	24	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	150	25	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	1	Other	other	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	2	weighing	weighing	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	3	schemes	scheme	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	4	are	be	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	5	certainly	certainly	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	6	possible	possible	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	7	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	8	investigating	investigate	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	9	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	10	properties	property	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	11	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	12	different	different	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	13	approaches	approach	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	14	seems	seem	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	15	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	16	potentially	potentially	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	17	fruitful	fruitful	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	18	future	future	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	19	enterprise	enterprise	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	151	20	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	1	As	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	2	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	3	whole	whole	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	4	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	5	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	6	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	8	combination	combination	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	9	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	10	Bayesian	Bayesian	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	11	Estimation	Estimation	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	12	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	13	differentially	differentially	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	14	weighing	weigh	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	16	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	17	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	18	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	19	employing	employ	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	20	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	21	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	22	robust	robust	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	23	approach	approach	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	24	towards	towards	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	25	modeling	model	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	26	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	27	errors	error	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	28	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	29	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	30	assuming	assume	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	31	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	32	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	33	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	34	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	35	with	with	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	36	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	37	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	38	df	df	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	39	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	40	estimated	estimate	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	41	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	42	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	43	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	44	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	45	results	result	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	46	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	47	more	more	RBR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	48	reliable	reliable	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	49	HDIs	hdi	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	50	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	51	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	52	intervals	interval	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	53	than	than	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	54	more	more	JJR
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	55	traditional	traditional	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	56	approaches	approach	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	152	57	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	1	Far	far	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	2	from	from	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	3	being	be	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	4	perfect	perfect	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	5	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	6	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	7	proposed	propose	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	8	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	9	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	10	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	11	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	12	somewhat	somewhat	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	13	useful	useful	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	153	14	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	1	Of	of	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	2	course	course	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	3	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	4	such	such	PDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	5	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	6	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	7	can	can	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	8	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	9	continuously	continuously	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	10	augmented	augment	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	11	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	12	including	include	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	13	new	new	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	14	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	15	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	16	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	17	applying	apply	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	18	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	19	same	same	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	20	or	or	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	21	similar	similar	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	22	weighing	weighing	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	23	procedure	procedure	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	154	24	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	1	Presumably	presumably	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	2	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	3	continuously	continuously	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	4	adjusting	adjust	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	6	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	7	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	8	adding	add	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	9	new	new	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	10	observations	observation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	11	as	as	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	12	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	13	become	become	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	14	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	15	would	would	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	16	improve	improve	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	17	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	18	accuracy	accuracy	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	155	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	1	That	that	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	2	being	be	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	3	said	say	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	5	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	6	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	7	suggest	suggest	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	8	that	that	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	9	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	10	should	should	MD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	11	be	be	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	12	somewhat	somewhat	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	13	skeptical	skeptical	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	14	towards	towards	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	15	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	16	growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	17	models	model	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	18	applied	apply	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	19	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	21	raw	raw	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	22	data	datum	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	23	describing	describe	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	24	an	an	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	25	outbreak	outbreak	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	26	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	27	especially	especially	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	28	when	when	WRB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	29	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	30	number	number	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	31	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	32	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	33	data	data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	34	points	point	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	35	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	36	relatively	relatively	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	37	small	small	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	38	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	39	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	40	upper	upper	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	41	asymptote	asymptote	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	42	appears	appear	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	43	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	44	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	45	have	have	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	46	been	be	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	47	reached	reach	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	48	yet	yet	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	49	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	156	50	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	157	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	158	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	158	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	158	3	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	158	4	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	158	5	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	158	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	159	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	160	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	161	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	161	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	162	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	162	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	162	3	 	 	_SP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	1	Histograms	Histograms	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	2	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	4	posterior	posterior	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	5	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	6	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	8	five	five	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	9	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	10	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	11	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	12	last	last	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	13	model	model	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	163	14	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	164	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	165	1	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	165	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	1	CC	CC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	3	BY	BY	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	4	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	5	NC	NC	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	7	ND	ND	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	8	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	9	International	international	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	166	10	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	167	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	167	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	167	3	made	make	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	167	4	available	available	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	167	5	under	under	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	167	6	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	1	is	be	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	2	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	3	author	author	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	5	funder	funder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	7	who	who	WP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	8	has	have	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	9	granted	grant	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	10	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	11	a	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	12	license	license	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	13	to	to	TO
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	14	display	display	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	15	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	16	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	17	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	18	perpetuity	perpetuity	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	168	19	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	1	(	(	-LRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	2	which	which	WDT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	3	was	be	VBD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	4	not	not	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	5	peer	peer	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	7	reviewed	review	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	169	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	2	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	3	holder	holder	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	5	this	this	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	6	preprint	preprint	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	170	7	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	171	1	https://doi.org/10	https://doi.org/10	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	171	2	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	172	1	1101	1101	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	172	2	/2020	/2020	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	1	if	if	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	2	propdf<0	propdf<0	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	3	alp=-99999	alp=-99999	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	4	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	5	else	else	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	6	Pred	Pred	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	7	=	=	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	8	cur(1)./(1+cur(2)*exp(-cur(3)*t	cur(1)./(1+cur(2)*exp(-cur(3)*t	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	173	11	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	1	Ln	ln	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	2	=	=	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	3	gentdst(y	gentdst(y	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	5	Pred	Pred	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	6	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	7	cur(4	cur(4	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	9	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	10	exp(propdf	exp(propdf	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	13	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	14	Ln	ln	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	15	=	=	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	16	sum(wei.*log(Ln	sum(wei.*log(Ln	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	17	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	174	19	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	1	Ln	ln	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	2	=	=	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	3	Ln+log((1/29)*exp(-(1/29)*(exp(propdf)-1	Ln+log((1/29)*exp(-(1/29)*(exp(propdf)-1	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	4	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	7	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	8	alp=(Ln	alp=(Ln	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	9	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	10	Lp)+(log(propdf)-log(curdf	Lp)+(log(propdf)-log(curdf	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	175	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	1	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	2	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	3	accounting	accounting	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	4	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	5	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	6	log	log	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	7	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	8	normal	normal	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	9	proposal	proposal	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	10	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	11	function	function	VB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	12	y	y	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	13	=	=	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	14	gentdst(x	gentdst(x	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	15	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	16	m	m	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	17	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	18	s	s	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	19	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	20	v	v	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	21	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	22	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	23	x	x	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	24	-data	-data	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	25	point	point	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	26	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	27	m	m	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	28	-location	-location	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	29	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	30	s	s	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	31	-scale	-scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	32	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	33	v	v	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	34	0	0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	35	degrees	degree	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	36	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	37	freedom	freedom	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	176	38	;	;	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	1	c=(1	c=(1	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	2	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	3	sqrt(v))*(1/(beta(v/2	sqrt(v))*(1/(beta(v/2	XX
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	4	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	5	0.5	0.5	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	177	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	1	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	2	y=(c	y=(c	UH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	3	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	4	s)*(1+((x	s)*(1+((x	VBN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	5	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	6	m).^2)/(v*(s^2))).^(-0.5*(v+1	m).^2)/(v*(s^2))).^(-0.5*(v+1	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	9	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	10	Estimation	estimation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	11	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	12	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	13	Final	Final	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	14	Size	Size	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	15	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	16	Coronavirus	Coronavirus	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	17	Epidemic	Epidemic	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	18	by	by	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	19	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	20	Logistic	Logistic	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	21	Model	Model	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	178	22	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	1	medRxiv	medRxiv	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	2	Understanding	understand	VBG
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	4	Metropolis	Metropolis	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	5	-	-	HYPH
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	6	Hastings	Hastings	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	7	Algorithm	Algorithm	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	8	Deep	Deep	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	9	Sparse	sparse	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	10	Rectifier	Rectifier	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	11	Neural	Neural	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	12	Networks	Networks	NNPS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	179	13	.	.	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	1	Proceedings	proceeding	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	2	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	3	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	4	14	14	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	5	th	th	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	6	International	International	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	7	Conference	Conference	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	8	on	on	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	9	Artificial	Artificial	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	10	Intelligence	Intelligence	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	11	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	12	Statistics	Statistics	NNPS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	13	Bayesian	Bayesian	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	14	Estimation	Estimation	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	15	Supersedes	supersede	VBZ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	16	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	17	t	t	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	180	18	test	test	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	1	A	a	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	2	Flexible	flexible	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	3	Growth	growth	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	4	Function	function	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	5	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	6	Empirical	Empirical	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	7	Use	Use	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	8	Maximum	Maximum	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	9	Weighted	weighted	JJ
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	10	Likelihood	Likelihood	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	11	Estimation	estimation	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	12	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	13	Logistic	Logistic	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	14	Regression	Regression	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	15	Generalized	Generalized	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	16	Logistic	Logistic	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	17	Growth	Growth	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	18	Modeling	Modeling	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	19	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	20	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	21	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	22	Outbreak	Outbreak	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	23	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	24	29	29	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	25	Provinces	province	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	26	in	in	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	27	China	China	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	181	28	%	%	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	1	The	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	2	columns	column	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	3	of	of	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	4	PAR	PAR	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	5	correspond	correspond	VBP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	6	to	to	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	7	the	the	DT
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	8	posteriors	posterior	NNS
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	9	for	for	IN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	10	K	K	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	11	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	12	A	A	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	13	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	14	r	r	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	15	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	16	scale	scale	NN
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	17	,	,	,
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	18	and	and	CC
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	19	df	df	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	20	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	21	;	;	:
cord-340375-lhv83zac	182	22	nit=30000000	nit=30000000	ADD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	1	wei	wei	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	2	=	=	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	3	wei	wei	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	4	/	/	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	5	sum(wei)*28	sum(wei)*28	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	6	/(1+cur(2)*exp(-cur(3)*t	/(1+cur(2)*exp(-cur(3)*t	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	9	/29)*exp(-(1/29)*(exp(curdf)-1	/29)*exp(-(1/29)*(exp(curdf)-1	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	11	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	12	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	183	13	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	184	1	<	<	XX
cord-340375-lhv83zac	184	2	=	=	SYM
cord-340375-lhv83zac	184	3	0	0	NFP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	185	1	||	||	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	186	1	prop(2)<=0	prop(2)<=0	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	187	1	||	||	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	188	1	prop(3)<=0	prop(3)<=0	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	1	||	||	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	2	prop(4)<=0	prop(4)<=0	CD
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	3	alp=0	alp=0	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	4	/(1+prop(2)*exp(-prop(3)*t	/(1+prop(2)*exp(-prop(3)*t	NNP
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	5	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	7	/29)*exp(-(1/29)*(exp(curdf)-1	/29)*exp(-(1/29)*(exp(curdf)-1	.
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	8	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-340375-lhv83zac	189	10	)	)	-RRB-