id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-127900-78x19fw4	Leung, Abby	Contact Graph Epidemic Modelling of COVID-19 for Transmission and Intervention Strategies	2020-10-06		.txt	text/plain	5032	279	55	More specifically we demonstrate that the compartment-based models are overestimating the spread of the infection by a factor of 3, and under some realistic assumptions on the compliance factor, underestimating the effectiveness of some of NPIs, mischaracterizing others (e.g. predicting a later peak), and underestimating the scale of the second peak after reopening. Only by incorporating real world contact networks into compartment models, one can disconnect network hubs to realistically simulate the effect of closure. We focus on the effects of 4 widely adopted NPIs: 1) quarantining infected and exposed individuals, 2) social distancing, 3) closing down of non-essential work places and schools, and 4) the use of face masks. • We show that structure of the contact networks significantly changes the epidemic curves and the current compartment based models are subject to overestimating the scale of the spread • We demonstrate the degree of effectiveness of different NPIs depends on the assumed underlying structure of the contact networks	./cache/cord-127900-78x19fw4.txt	./txt/cord-127900-78x19fw4.txt