id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-290719-ab71pz6v	Bogacz, Rafal	Estimating the probability of New Zealand regions being free from COVID-19 using a stochastic SEIR model	2020-04-21		.txt	text/plain	2534	152	58	title: Estimating the probability of New Zealand regions being free from COVID-19 using a stochastic SEIR model This report describes a method for estimating the probability that there are no infected or pre-symptomatic individuals in a populations on a basis of historical data describing the number of cases in consecutive days. This report presents a method for estimating such a probability on the basis of a simple model and presents results for individual District Health Boards (DHB) in New Zealand. • Since the Ministry of Health reports daily numbers of new cases in each DHB, the model treats each DHB as a separate population, thus assuming that individuals do not move between DHB (following government instructions not to travel). On the basis of data on the number of cases in New Zealand in the period from 25 March to 18 April 2020, we estimated parameters of the model as β = 0.26, γ = 0.42.	./cache/cord-290719-ab71pz6v.txt	./txt/cord-290719-ab71pz6v.txt