id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-216208-kn0njkqg	Botha, Andr'e E.	A simple iterative map forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic	2020-03-23		.txt	text/plain	2478	131	65	We develop a simple 3-dimensional iterative map model to forecast the global spread of the coronavirus disease. Our model contains at most two fitting parameters, which we determine from the data supplied by the world health organisation for the total number of cases and new cases each day. The fact that the available data for the pandemic can be fitted well by a simple model such as ours suggests that past and current interventions to curb the spread of the disease, globally, may not be very effective. In developing countries such as South Africa there is also a relatively large percentage of people with compromised immunity, due to the high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and this also could result in the coronavirus having a much larger impact than our model of the current global data shows.	./cache/cord-216208-kn0njkqg.txt	./txt/cord-216208-kn0njkqg.txt