id author title date pages extension mime words sentences flesch summary cache txt cord-252556-o4fyjqss Bonasera, A. Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread: a two-step model. 2020-05-11 .txt text/plain 4801 245 62 The model has successfully predicted the rise and saturation of the spreading in terms of probabilities, i.e. the number of infected (or deceased) persons divided by the total number of tests performed. Among the EU countries, Germany shows the lowest number of deceased cases, which could be due to different ways of counting (for instance performing autopsies to check for the virus like in Italy). Thus in order to better stress the efficacy of the quarantine, we have plotted in figure 2 the number of cases DIVIDED by the population density, assuming that it is much easier to perform social distancing if the population density is low. Equation (1) has the same form observed in the figures (1) and (2) , but in reality it should be applied not the number of positives (or deceased) but to their probabilities, i.e. the number of cases divided by the total number of tests. ./cache/cord-252556-o4fyjqss.txt ./txt/cord-252556-o4fyjqss.txt