id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-347317-qcghtkk0	Russo, Lucia	Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach	2020-10-30		.txt	text/plain	9776	397	51	For the estimation of the day-zero of the outbreak in Lombardy, as well as of the "effective" per-day transmission rate for which no clinical data are available, we have used the proposed SEIIRD simulator to fit the numbers of new daily cases from February 21 to the 8th of March. Among the perplexing problems that mathematical models face when they are used to estimate epidemiological parameters and to forecast the evolution of the outbreak, two stand out: (a) the uncertainty regarding the day-zero of the outbreak, the knowledge of which is crucial to assess the stage and dynamics of the epidemic, especially during the first growth period, and (b) the uncertainty that characterizes the actual number of the asymptomatic infected cases in the total population (see e.g.	./cache/cord-347317-qcghtkk0.txt	./txt/cord-347317-qcghtkk0.txt