id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-351830-x4sv6ieu	Gollier, Christian	Pandemic economics: optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning	2020-08-17		.txt	text/plain	5052	326	61	In the absence of uncertainty, the optimal confinement policy is to impose a constant rate of lockdown until the suppression of the virus in the population. I show that introducing uncertainty about the reproduction number of deconfined people reduces the optimal initial rate of confinement. To illustrate, here is a short list of the sources of covid-19 uncertainties: The mortality rate, the rate of asymptomatic sick people, the rate of prevalence, the duration of immunity, the impact of various policies (lockdown, social distancing, compulsory masks, …) on the reproduction numbers, the proportion of people who could telework efficiently, and the possibility of cross-immunization from similar viruses. The uncertainty surrounding the reproduction number affects this expected cost because of the intricate non-linearities in the duration of the pandemic and in the sensitivity of the optimal future lockdown to new information.	./cache/cord-351830-x4sv6ieu.txt	./txt/cord-351830-x4sv6ieu.txt