id sid tid token lemma pos cord-259745-69wk591l 1 1 key key NN cord-259745-69wk591l 1 2 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 2 1 cord-259745 cord-259745 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 2 2 - - : cord-259745-69wk591l 2 3 69wk591l 69wk591l CD cord-259745-69wk591l 3 1 authors author NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 3 2 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 3 3 Baerwolff Baerwolff NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 3 4 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 3 5 Guenter Guenter NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 3 6 K.F. K.F. NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 4 1 title title NN cord-259745-69wk591l 4 2 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 5 1 A a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 5 2 Contribution contribution NN cord-259745-69wk591l 5 3 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 5 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 5 5 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 6 Modeling Modeling NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 5 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 5 9 Corona Corona NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 10 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 5 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 12 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 13 date date NN cord-259745-69wk591l 5 14 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 5 15 2020 2020 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 5 16 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 5 17 04 04 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 5 18 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 5 19 06 06 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 5 20 journal journal NN cord-259745-69wk591l 5 21 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 5 22 nan nan NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 23 DOI DOI NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 5 24 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 6 1 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 6 2 sha sha NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 6 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 7 1 1107150765aca0f01b971697f813e05e7400f125 1107150765aca0f01b971697f813e05e7400f125 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 7 2 doc_id doc_id CD cord-259745-69wk591l 7 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 8 1 259745 259745 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 8 2 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 8 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 8 4 69wk591l 69wk591l CD cord-259745-69wk591l 9 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 9 2 responsible responsible JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 9 3 estimation estimation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 9 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 9 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 9 6 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 9 7 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 9 8 main main JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 9 9 issue issue NN cord-259745-69wk591l 9 10 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 9 11 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 9 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 9 13 models model NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 9 14 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 10 1 Especially especially RB cord-259745-69wk591l 10 2 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 10 3 good good JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 10 4 choice choice NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 6 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 7 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 10 9 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 10 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 11 others other NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 10 12 that that WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 10 13 one one CD cord-259745-69wk591l 10 14 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 10 15 person person NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 16 encounters encounter VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 10 17 per per IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 18 unit unit NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 19 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 10 21 per per IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 22 day day NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 10 24 influences influence VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 10 25 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 10 26 adequateness adequateness NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 27 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 28 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 10 29 results result NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 10 30 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 31 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 10 32 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 10 33 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 11 1 For for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 11 3 example example NN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 11 6 actual actual JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 11 7 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 11 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 9 some some DT cord-259745-69wk591l 11 10 aspects aspect NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 11 11 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 11 13 parameter parameter NN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 14 choice choice NN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 15 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 11 16 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 11 17 discussed discuss VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 11 18 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 12 1 Because because IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 2 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 4 incompatibility incompatibility NN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 7 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 12 8 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 9 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 10 Johns Johns NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 11 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 12 12 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 13 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 12 14 University University NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 15 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 16 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 17 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 12 18 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 20 German german JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 12 21 Robert Robert NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 22 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 12 23 Koch Koch NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 24 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 12 25 Institut Institut NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 26 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 27 use use VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 28 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 29 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 30 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 12 31 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 32 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 33 European European NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 34 Centre Centre NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 35 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 36 Disease Disease NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 37 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 38 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 12 39 Control Control NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 12 41 ECDC ECDC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 12 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 12 43 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 44 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 45 base base NN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 46 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 47 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 12 48 parameter parameter NN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 49 estimation estimation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 12 50 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 13 1 Two two CD cord-259745-69wk591l 13 2 different different JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 13 3 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 13 4 methods method NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 13 5 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 13 7 data data NN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 8 analysis analysis NN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 9 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 13 10 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 13 11 discussed discuss VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 12 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 13 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 13 14 paper paper NN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 15 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 13 16 possible possible JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 13 17 sources source NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 13 18 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 19 trouble trouble NN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 20 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 13 21 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 13 22 shown show VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 13 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 14 1 Parameters parameter NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 14 2 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 14 3 several several JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 14 4 countries country NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 14 5 like like IN cord-259745-69wk591l 14 6 UK UK NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 7 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 14 8 USA USA NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 9 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 14 10 Italy Italy NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 11 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 14 12 Spain Spain NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 13 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 14 14 Germany Germany NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 15 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 14 16 China China NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 17 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 14 18 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 14 19 estimated estimate VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 14 20 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 14 21 used use VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 14 22 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 14 23 W.O. W.O. NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 24 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 25 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 14 26 A.G. A.G. NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 27 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 28 's 's POS cord-259745-69wk591l 14 29 SIR SIR NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 14 30 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 14 31 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 15 1 Strategies strategy NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 15 2 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 15 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 15 4 commencing commencing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 15 5 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 15 6 ending ending NN cord-259745-69wk591l 15 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 15 8 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 15 9 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 15 10 economic economic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 15 11 shutdown shutdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 15 12 measures measure NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 15 13 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 15 14 discussed discuss VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 15 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 16 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 16 2 numerical numerical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 16 3 solution solution NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 16 6 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 16 7 differential differential JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 16 8 equation equation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 9 system system NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 10 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 11 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 16 12 modified modify VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 13 SIR SIR NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 16 14 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 15 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 16 16 being be VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 16 17 done do VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 18 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 19 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 16 20 Runge Runge NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 16 21 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 16 22 Kutta Kutta NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 16 23 integration integration NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 24 method method NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 25 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 26 fourth fourth JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 16 27 order order NN cord-259745-69wk591l 16 28 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 17 1 At at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 17 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 17 3 end end NN cord-259745-69wk591l 17 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 17 5 applicability applicability NN cord-259745-69wk591l 17 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 17 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 17 8 SIR SIR NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 17 9 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 17 10 could could MD cord-259745-69wk591l 17 11 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 17 12 shown show VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 17 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 18 1 Suggestions suggestion NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 18 2 about about IN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 3 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 18 4 points point NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 18 5 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 6 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 7 at at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 8 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 18 9 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 18 10 commence commence VB cord-259745-69wk591l 18 11 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 12 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 13 measures measure NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 18 14 based base VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 15 on on IN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 16 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 18 17 acceleration acceleration NN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 18 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 19 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 20 infections infection NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 18 21 conclude conclude VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 18 22 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 18 23 paper paper NN cord-259745-69wk591l 18 24 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 19 1 At at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 19 2 first first RB cord-259745-69wk591l 19 3 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 19 4 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 19 5 describe describe VB cord-259745-69wk591l 19 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 19 7 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 19 8 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 20 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 20 2 denotes denote VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 20 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 20 4 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 20 5 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 20 6 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 20 7 S S NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 20 8 stands stand VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 20 9 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 20 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 20 11 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 20 12 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 20 13 R r NN cord-259745-69wk591l 20 14 denotes denote VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 20 15 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 20 16 recovered recovered JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 20 17 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 20 18 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 21 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 21 2 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 21 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 4 infections infection NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 21 5 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 21 6 recoveries recovery NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 21 7 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 21 8 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 21 9 approximated approximate VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 10 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 11 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 21 12 ODE ode NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 13 system system NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 14 We -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 21 15 understand understand VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 21 16 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 17 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 18 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 21 19 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 20 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 21 others other NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 21 22 that that WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 21 23 one one CD cord-259745-69wk591l 21 24 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 21 25 person person NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 26 encounters encounter VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 21 27 per per IN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 28 unit unit NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 29 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 21 31 per per IN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 32 day day NN cord-259745-69wk591l 21 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 21 34 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 22 1 γ γ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 22 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 22 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 22 4 reciprocal reciprocal JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 22 5 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 22 8 typical typical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 22 9 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 10 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 11 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 12 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 13 recovery recovery NN cord-259745-69wk591l 22 14 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 23 1 N N NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 23 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 23 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 23 4 total total JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 23 5 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 7 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 23 8 involved involve VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 9 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 23 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 12 disease disease NN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 13 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 23 14 there there EX cord-259745-69wk591l 23 15 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 23 16 N n NN cord-259745-69wk591l 23 17 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 23 18 S s NN cord-259745-69wk591l 24 1 + + CC cord-259745-69wk591l 25 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 25 2 + + CC cord-259745-69wk591l 25 3 R r NN cord-259745-69wk591l 25 4 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 26 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 26 2 empirical empirical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 26 3 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 26 4 currently currently RB cord-259745-69wk591l 26 5 available available JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 26 6 suggests suggest VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 26 7 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 26 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 26 9 corona corona NN cord-259745-69wk591l 26 10 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 26 11 typically typically RB cord-259745-69wk591l 26 12 lasts last VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 26 13 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 26 14 some some DT cord-259745-69wk591l 26 15 14 14 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 26 16 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 26 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 27 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 27 2 means mean VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 27 3 γ γ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 27 4 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 27 5 1/14 1/14 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 27 6 ≈ ≈ NNPS cord-259745-69wk591l 27 7 0,07 0,07 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 27 8 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 28 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 28 2 choice choice NN cord-259745-69wk591l 28 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 28 4 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 28 5 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 28 6 more more RBR cord-259745-69wk591l 28 7 complicated complicated JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 28 8 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 29 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-259745-69wk591l 29 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 29 3 consider consider VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 29 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 29 5 development development NN cord-259745-69wk591l 29 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 29 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 29 8 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 29 9 persons person NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 29 10 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 29 11 Germany Germany NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 29 12 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 30 1 Figs fig NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 30 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 31 1 1 1 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 32 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 32 2 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 32 3 2 2 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 32 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 32 5 show show VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 32 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 32 7 history history NN cord-259745-69wk591l 32 8 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 32 9 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 32 10 last last JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 32 11 60 60 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 32 12 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 32 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 33 1 At at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 33 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 33 3 beginning beginning NN cord-259745-69wk591l 33 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 33 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 33 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 33 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 33 8 quotient quotient NN cord-259745-69wk591l 33 9 S S NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 33 10 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 33 11 N N NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 33 12 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 33 13 nearly nearly RB cord-259745-69wk591l 33 14 equal equal JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 33 15 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 33 16 1 1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 33 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 34 1 Also also RB cord-259745-69wk591l 34 2 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 34 3 at at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 34 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 34 5 early early JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 34 6 stage stage NN cord-259745-69wk591l 34 7 no no DT cord-259745-69wk591l 34 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 34 9 one one NN cord-259745-69wk591l 34 10 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 34 11 yet yet RB cord-259745-69wk591l 34 12 recovered recover VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 34 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 35 1 Thus thus RB cord-259745-69wk591l 35 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 35 3 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 35 4 describe describe VB cord-259745-69wk591l 35 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 35 6 early early JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 35 7 regime regime NN cord-259745-69wk591l 35 8 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 35 9 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 35 10 equation equation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 36 1 dI dI NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 36 2 dt dt NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 36 3 = = NN cord-259745-69wk591l 36 4 βI βi XX cord-259745-69wk591l 37 1 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 37 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 37 3 solution solution NN cord-259745-69wk591l 37 4 I(t I(t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 37 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 37 6 = = NFP cord-259745-69wk591l 38 1 I(0 I(0 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 38 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 38 3 exp(βt exp(βt NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 38 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 38 5 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 39 1 To to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 39 2 guess guess VB cord-259745-69wk591l 39 3 values value NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 39 4 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 39 5 I(0 I(0 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 39 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 39 7 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 39 8 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 39 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 39 10 fit fit VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 39 11 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 39 12 real real JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 39 13 behavior behavior NN cord-259745-69wk591l 39 14 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 39 15 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 39 16 function function NN cord-259745-69wk591l 39 17 α α NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 39 18 exp(βt exp(βt NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 39 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 39 20 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 40 1 With with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 40 2 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 40 3 damped damped JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 40 4 Gauss Gauss NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 40 5 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 40 6 Newton Newton NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 40 7 method method NN cord-259745-69wk591l 40 8 [ [ -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 40 9 3 3 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 40 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 40 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 40 12 get get VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 40 13 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 40 14 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 40 15 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 40 16 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 40 17 0,218 0,218 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 40 18 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 40 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 40 20 nonlinear nonlinear JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 40 21 approximation approximation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 40 22 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 40 23 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 41 1 = = LS cord-259745-69wk591l 41 2 0,175 0,175 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 41 3 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 41 4 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 41 5 logarithmic logarithmic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 41 6 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 41 7 linear linear JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 41 8 regression regression NN cord-259745-69wk591l 41 9 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 41 10 Germany Germany NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 41 11 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 42 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 42 2 values value NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 42 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 4 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 5 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 6 Italy Italy NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 42 7 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 42 8 Spain Spain NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 42 9 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 42 10 greater great JJR cord-259745-69wk591l 42 11 than than IN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 12 those those DT cord-259745-69wk591l 42 13 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 14 Germany Germany NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 42 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 42 16 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 17 Italy Italy NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 42 18 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 42 19 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 42 20 resulting result VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 42 21 exponential exponential JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 42 22 curves curve NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 42 23 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 42 24 sketched sketch VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 25 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 42 26 figs fig NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 42 27 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 43 1 1 1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 43 2 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 43 3 2 2 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 43 4 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 44 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 44 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 44 3 important important JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 44 4 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 44 5 note note VB cord-259745-69wk591l 44 6 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 44 7 actual actual JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 44 8 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 44 9 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 44 10 Germany Germany NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 44 11 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 44 12 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 44 13 only only RB cord-259745-69wk591l 44 14 coarsely coarsely RB cord-259745-69wk591l 44 15 approximated approximate VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 44 16 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 44 17 exponential exponential JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 44 18 curves curve NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 44 19 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 45 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 45 2 reduces reduce VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 45 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 45 4 quality quality NN cord-259745-69wk591l 45 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 45 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 45 7 SIR SIR NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 45 8 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 45 9 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 45 10 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 45 11 limits limit VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 45 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-259745-69wk591l 45 13 predictive predictive JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 45 14 power power NN cord-259745-69wk591l 45 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 46 1 With with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 46 3 optimmistic optimmistic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 46 4 choice choice NN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 6 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 7 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 46 8 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 9 0,175 0,175 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 46 10 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 46 11 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 46 12 evaluated evaluate VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 13 on on IN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 14 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 46 15 basis basis NN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 16 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 17 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 46 18 real real JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 46 19 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 46 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 46 21 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 22 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 46 23 Johns Johns NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 46 24 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 46 25 University University NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 46 26 database database NN cord-259745-69wk591l 46 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 47 1 one one PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 47 2 gets get VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 47 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 47 4 course course NN cord-259745-69wk591l 47 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 47 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 47 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 47 8 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 47 9 pictured picture VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 47 10 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 47 11 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 47 12 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 48 1 3 3 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 48 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 49 1 1 1 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 49 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 50 1 R0 R0 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 50 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 50 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 50 4 basis basis NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 5 reproduction reproduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 6 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 8 persons person NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 50 9 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 50 10 infected infect VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 11 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 50 13 transmission transmission NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 14 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 50 16 pathogen pathogen NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 17 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 18 one one CD cord-259745-69wk591l 50 19 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 50 20 person person NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 21 during during IN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 22 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 50 23 infectious infectious JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 50 24 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 50 26 R0 R0 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 50 27 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 50 28 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 29 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 50 30 γ γ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 50 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 50 32 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 50 33 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 50 34 following follow VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 50 35 figures figure NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 50 36 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 51 1 Neither neither DT cord-259745-69wk591l 51 2 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 51 3 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 51 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 51 5 German german JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 51 6 Robert Robert NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 7 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 51 8 Koch Koch NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 9 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 51 10 Institut Institut NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 11 nor nor CC cord-259745-69wk591l 51 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 51 13 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 51 14 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 51 15 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 51 16 Johns Johns NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 17 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 18 University University NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 19 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 20 correct correct JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 51 21 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 51 22 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 51 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 24 have have VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 25 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 51 26 reasonably reasonably RB cord-259745-69wk591l 51 27 assume assume VB cord-259745-69wk591l 51 28 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 51 29 there there EX cord-259745-69wk591l 51 30 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 51 31 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 51 32 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 51 33 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 51 34 unknown unknown JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 51 35 cases case NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 51 36 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 52 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 52 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 52 3 guessed guess VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 52 4 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 52 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 52 6 data data NN cord-259745-69wk591l 52 7 covers cover VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 52 8 only only RB cord-259745-69wk591l 52 9 15 15 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 52 10 % % NN cord-259745-69wk591l 52 11 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 52 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 52 13 real real JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 52 14 cases case NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 52 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 53 1 Considering consider VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 53 2 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 53 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 53 4 get get VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 53 5 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 53 6 slightly slightly RB cord-259745-69wk591l 53 7 changed change VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 53 8 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 53 9 pictured picture VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 53 10 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 53 11 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 53 12 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 54 1 4 4 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 54 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 55 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 55 2 maximum maximum JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 55 3 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 5 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 55 6 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 55 7 including include VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 55 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 55 9 estimated estimate VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 10 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 11 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 12 unknown unknown JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 55 13 cases case NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 55 14 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 55 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 55 16 bit bit NN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 17 higher high JJR cord-259745-69wk591l 55 18 than than IN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 55 20 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 21 showed show VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 55 22 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 23 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 55 24 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 56 1 3 3 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 56 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 57 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 57 2 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 57 3 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 57 4 explained explain VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 57 5 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 57 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 57 7 small small JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 57 8 reduction reduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 57 9 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 57 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 57 11 S S NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 57 12 stock stock NN cord-259745-69wk591l 57 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 58 1 1 1 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 58 2 I0 i0 NN cord-259745-69wk591l 58 3 denotes denote VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 58 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 58 5 initial initial JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 58 6 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 58 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 58 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 58 9 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 58 10 species species VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 58 11 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 58 12 that that RB cord-259745-69wk591l 58 13 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 58 14 March March NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 58 15 27th 27th NN cord-259745-69wk591l 58 16 2020 2020 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 58 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 59 1 Imax Imax NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 59 2 stands stand VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 59 3 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 59 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 59 5 maximum maximum NN cord-259745-69wk591l 59 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 59 7 I. i. NN cord-259745-69wk591l 60 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 60 2 total total JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 60 3 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 60 4 N N NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 60 5 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 60 6 Germany Germany NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 60 7 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 60 8 guessed guess VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 60 9 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 60 10 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 60 11 75 75 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 60 12 millions million NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 60 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 60 14 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 61 1 CC CC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 61 2 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 61 3 BY BY NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 61 4 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 61 5 NC NC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 61 6 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 61 7 ND ND NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 61 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 61 9 International international JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 61 10 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 62 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 62 3 made make VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 4 available available JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 62 5 under under IN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 62 7 author author NN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 8 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 62 9 funder funder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 10 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 62 11 who who WP cord-259745-69wk591l 62 12 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 62 13 granted grant VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 62 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 62 16 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 17 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 62 18 display display VB cord-259745-69wk591l 62 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 62 20 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 21 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 62 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 63 1 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 63 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 63 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 63 4 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 63 5 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 63 6 not not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 63 7 peer peer NN cord-259745-69wk591l 63 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 63 9 reviewed review VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 63 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 64 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 64 2 copyright copyright NN cord-259745-69wk591l 64 3 holder holder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 64 4 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 64 5 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 64 6 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 64 7 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 65 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 65 2 doi doi NN cord-259745-69wk591l 65 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 66 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 66 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 66 3 _SP cord-259745-69wk591l 67 1 With with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 67 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 67 3 data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 67 4 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 67 5 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 67 6 0,25 0,25 NN cord-259745-69wk591l 67 7 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 67 8 γ γ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 67 9 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 67 10 0,05 0,05 NN cord-259745-69wk591l 68 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 68 2 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 68 3 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 68 4 20 20 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 68 5 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 68 6 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 68 7 heal heal VB cord-259745-69wk591l 68 8 up up RP cord-259745-69wk591l 68 9 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 68 10 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 68 11 join join VB cord-259745-69wk591l 68 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 68 13 species specie NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 68 14 R R NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 68 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 68 16 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 68 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 68 18 get get VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 68 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 68 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 68 21 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 68 22 showed show VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 68 23 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 68 24 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 68 25 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 69 1 5 5 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 69 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 70 1 For for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 70 2 N n CD cord-259745-69wk591l 70 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 70 4 take take VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 70 5 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 70 6 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 70 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 70 8 70 70 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 70 9 millons millon NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 70 10 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 70 11 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 71 1 CC CC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 71 2 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 71 3 BY BY NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 71 4 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 71 5 NC NC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 71 6 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 71 7 ND ND NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 71 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 71 9 International international JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 71 10 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 72 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 72 3 made make VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 4 available available JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 72 5 under under IN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 72 7 author author NN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 8 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 72 9 funder funder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 10 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 72 11 who who WP cord-259745-69wk591l 72 12 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 72 13 granted grant VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 72 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 72 16 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 17 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 72 18 display display VB cord-259745-69wk591l 72 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 72 20 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 21 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 72 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 73 1 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 73 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 73 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 73 4 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 73 5 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 73 6 not not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 73 7 peer peer NN cord-259745-69wk591l 73 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 73 9 reviewed review VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 73 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 74 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 74 2 copyright copyright NN cord-259745-69wk591l 74 3 holder holder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 74 4 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 74 5 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 74 6 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 74 7 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 75 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 75 2 doi doi NN cord-259745-69wk591l 75 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 76 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 76 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 76 3 _SP cord-259745-69wk591l 77 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 77 2 effects effect NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 77 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 4 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 77 5 distancing distancing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 6 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 77 7 decrease decrease VB cord-259745-69wk591l 77 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 77 9 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 10 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 11 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 77 12 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 77 13 modeled model VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 14 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 77 16 modification modification NN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 17 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 18 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 77 19 SIR SIR NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 77 20 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 77 21 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 78 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 78 2 original original JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 78 3 ODE ode NN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 4 system system NN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 78 6 1)-(3 1)-(3 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 78 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 78 8 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 78 9 modified modify VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 10 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 11 κ κ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 12 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 78 13 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 78 14 function function NN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 15 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 16 values value NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 78 17 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 78 18 [ [ -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 78 19 0,1 0,1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 78 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 78 21 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 79 1 For for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 79 2 example example NN cord-259745-69wk591l 79 3 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 79 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 79 5 duration duration NN cord-259745-69wk591l 79 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 79 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 79 8 temporary temporary JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 79 9 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 79 10 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 79 11 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 79 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 79 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 80 1 A a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 80 2 good good JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 80 3 choice choice NN cord-259745-69wk591l 80 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 80 5 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 80 6 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 80 7 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 80 8 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 80 9 k k NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 80 10 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 80 11 going go VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 80 12 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 80 13 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 80 14 complicated complicated JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 80 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 81 1 Some some DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 2 numerical numerical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 3 tests test NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 81 4 showed show VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 81 5 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 7 very very RB cord-259745-69wk591l 81 8 early early JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 9 start start NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 10 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 11 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 12 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 13 resulting result VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 81 14 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 16 reduction reduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 17 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 18 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 19 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 20 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 21 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 22 results result VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 23 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 24 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 25 typical typical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 26 Gaussian gaussian JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 27 curve curve NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 28 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 81 29 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 81 30 delayed delay VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 31 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 32 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 81 33 ; ; : cord-259745-69wk591l 81 34 however however RB cord-259745-69wk591l 81 35 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 81 36 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 81 37 amplitude amplitude NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 81 39 maximum maximum JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 40 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 41 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 42 I i NN cord-259745-69wk591l 81 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 81 44 does do VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 81 45 n't not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 81 46 really really RB cord-259745-69wk591l 81 47 change change VB cord-259745-69wk591l 81 48 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 82 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 82 2 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 4 an an DT cord-259745-69wk591l 82 5 imposed impose VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 6 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 8 30 30 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 82 9 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 82 10 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 11 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 12 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 82 13 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 82 14 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 82 15 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 82 16 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 17 1 1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 82 18 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 82 19 30 30 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 82 20 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 82 21 reduction reduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 22 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 23 κ κ . cord-259745-69wk591l 82 24 equal equal JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 82 25 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 82 26 0,5 0,5 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 83 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 83 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 83 3 means mean VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 83 4 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 83 5 reduction reduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 7 contacts contact NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 83 8 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 9 50 50 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 83 10 % % NN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 83 12 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 83 13 pictured picture VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 14 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 15 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 83 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 84 1 6 6 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 84 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 85 1 There there EX cord-259745-69wk591l 85 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 85 3 not not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 85 4 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 85 5 genuine genuine JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 85 6 profit profit NN cord-259745-69wk591l 85 7 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 85 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 85 9 fight fight NN cord-259745-69wk591l 85 10 against against IN cord-259745-69wk591l 85 11 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 85 12 disease disease NN cord-259745-69wk591l 85 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 86 1 One one PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 86 2 knows know VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 86 3 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 86 4 development development NN cord-259745-69wk591l 86 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 86 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 86 7 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 86 8 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 86 9 looks look VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 86 10 like like IN cord-259745-69wk591l 86 11 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 86 12 Gaussian gaussian JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 86 13 curve curve NN cord-259745-69wk591l 86 14 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 87 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 87 2 interesting interesting JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 87 3 points point NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 87 4 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 87 5 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 87 6 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 87 7 those those DT cord-259745-69wk591l 87 8 where where WRB cord-259745-69wk591l 87 9 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 87 10 acceleration acceleration NN cord-259745-69wk591l 87 11 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 87 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 87 13 numbers number NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 87 14 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 87 15 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 87 16 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 87 17 increases increase NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 87 18 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 87 19 decreases decrease NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 87 20 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 87 21 respectively respectively RB cord-259745-69wk591l 87 22 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 88 1 These these DT cord-259745-69wk591l 88 2 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 88 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 88 4 points point NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 88 5 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 6 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 7 where where WRB cord-259745-69wk591l 88 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 88 9 curve curve NN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 10 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 11 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 88 12 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 88 13 changing change VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 88 14 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 88 16 convex convex NN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 17 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 18 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 88 19 concave concave JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 88 20 behavior behavior NN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 21 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 88 22 vice vice NN cord-259745-69wk591l 88 23 versa versa RB cord-259745-69wk591l 88 24 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 89 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 89 2 convexity convexity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 89 3 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 89 4 concavity concavity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 89 5 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 89 6 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 89 7 controlled control VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 89 8 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 89 9 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 89 10 second second JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 89 11 derivative derivative NN cord-259745-69wk591l 89 12 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 89 13 I(t I(t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 89 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 89 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 90 1 Let let VB cord-259745-69wk591l 90 2 us -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 90 3 consider consider VB cord-259745-69wk591l 90 4 equation equation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 90 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 90 6 2 2 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 90 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 90 8 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 91 1 By by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 2 differentiation differentiation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 91 5 2 2 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 91 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 91 7 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 91 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 91 9 use use NN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 10 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 91 12 1 1 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 91 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 91 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 91 15 get get VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 91 16 With with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 17 that that DT cord-259745-69wk591l 91 18 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 91 19 I i NN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 20 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 91 21 curve curve NN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 22 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 91 23 change change VB cord-259745-69wk591l 91 24 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 25 convex convex JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 91 26 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 91 27 concave concave VB cord-259745-69wk591l 91 28 if if IN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 29 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 91 30 relation relation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 91 31 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 91 32 valid valid JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 91 33 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 92 1 For for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 92 3 switching switching NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 4 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 5 follows follow VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 92 6 A a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 92 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 8 starting start VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 92 9 at at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 10 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 11 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 92 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 92 13 assigning assign VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 92 14 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 15 * * NFP cord-259745-69wk591l 92 16 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 92 17 κβ κβ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 92 18 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 92 19 κ κ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 20 ∈ ∈ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 92 22 0,1 0,1 NFP cord-259745-69wk591l 92 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 92 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 92 25 up up IN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 26 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 27 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 92 28 point point NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 29 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 30 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 31 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 92 32 1 1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 93 1 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 93 2 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 93 3 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 93 4 + + CC cord-259745-69wk591l 93 5 ∆ ∆ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 93 6 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 93 7 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 93 8 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 9 ∆ ∆ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 93 10 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 93 11 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 93 13 duration duration NN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 14 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 15 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 93 16 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 17 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 18 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 93 19 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 93 20 will will MD cord-259745-69wk591l 93 21 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 93 22 denoted denote VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 23 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 24 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 93 25 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 93 26 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 93 28 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 93 29 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 94 1 > > XX cord-259745-69wk591l 95 1 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 95 2 1 1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 95 3 β β NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 95 4 * * NFP cord-259745-69wk591l 95 5 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 95 6 reset reset JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 95 7 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 95 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 95 9 original original JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 95 10 value value NN cord-259745-69wk591l 95 11 β β NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 95 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 95 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 96 1 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 96 2 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 96 3 means mean VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 96 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 96 5 point point NN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 6 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 7 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 8 up up IN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 9 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 10 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 96 11 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 96 12 growth growth NN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 13 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 14 increases increase NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 96 15 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 96 16 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 17 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 96 18 on on IN cord-259745-69wk591l 96 19 it -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 96 20 decreases decrease VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 96 21 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 97 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 97 2 . . NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 97 3 7 7 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 97 4 shows show VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 97 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 97 6 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 97 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 97 8 such such PDT cord-259745-69wk591l 97 9 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 97 10 computation computation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 97 11 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 97 12 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 97 13 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 97 14 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 97 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 98 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 98 2 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 98 3 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 98 4 significant significant JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 98 5 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 99 1 In in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 99 2 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 99 3 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 100 1 9 9 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 100 2 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 100 3 typical typical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 100 4 behavior behavior NN cord-259745-69wk591l 100 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 100 6 d d NN cord-259745-69wk591l 100 7 2 2 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 100 8 I i NN cord-259745-69wk591l 100 9 dt dt NN cord-259745-69wk591l 100 10 2 2 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 100 11 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 100 12 plotted plot VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 100 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 101 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 101 2 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 4 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 101 5 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 101 6 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 7 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 8 Italy Italy NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 101 9 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 101 10 shown show VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 11 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 12 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 101 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 102 1 8 8 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 102 2 Data datum NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 102 3 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 4 China China NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 102 5 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 102 6 South South NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 102 7 Korea Korea NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 102 8 suggests suggest VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 102 9 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 102 11 group group NN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 12 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 13 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 102 14 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 102 15 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 16 an an DT cord-259745-69wk591l 102 17 age age NN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 18 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 19 70 70 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 102 20 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 102 21 more more JJR cord-259745-69wk591l 102 22 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 102 23 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 24 magnitude magnitude NN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 25 10 10 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 102 26 % % NN cord-259745-69wk591l 102 27 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 103 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 103 2 group group NN cord-259745-69wk591l 103 3 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 103 4 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 103 5 significant significant JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 103 6 higher high JJR cord-259745-69wk591l 103 7 mortality mortality NN cord-259745-69wk591l 103 8 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 103 9 than than IN cord-259745-69wk591l 103 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 103 11 rest rest NN cord-259745-69wk591l 103 12 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 103 13 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 103 14 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 103 15 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 103 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 104 1 Thus thus RB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 104 3 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 104 4 presume presume VB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 5 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 104 6 α=10 α=10 XX cord-259745-69wk591l 104 7 % % NN cord-259745-69wk591l 104 8 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 104 9 I -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 104 10 must must MD cord-259745-69wk591l 104 11 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 12 especially especially RB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 13 sheltered shelter VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 104 14 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 104 15 possibly possibly RB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 16 medicated medicated JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 104 17 very very RB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 18 intensively intensively RB cord-259745-69wk591l 104 19 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 104 20 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 104 21 highrisk highrisk JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 104 22 group group NN cord-259745-69wk591l 104 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 105 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 105 2 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 106 1 10 10 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 106 2 shows show VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 106 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 106 4 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 5 history history NN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 106 8 above above RB cord-259745-69wk591l 106 9 defined define VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 10 high high JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 106 11 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 106 12 risk risk NN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 13 group group NN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 14 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 106 16 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 106 17 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 18 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 106 19 κ κ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 107 1 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 107 2 0,5 0,5 NFP cord-259745-69wk591l 108 1 compared compare VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 108 2 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 108 3 regime regime NN cord-259745-69wk591l 108 4 without without IN cord-259745-69wk591l 108 5 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 108 6 distancing distancing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 108 7 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 109 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 109 2 maximum maximum JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 109 3 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 109 4 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 109 5 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 109 6 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 109 7 decreases decrease VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 109 8 from from IN cord-259745-69wk591l 109 9 approximately approximately RB cord-259745-69wk591l 109 10 1,7 1,7 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 109 11 millions million NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 109 12 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 109 13 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 109 14 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 110 1 11 11 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 110 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 110 3 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 110 4 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 110 5 κβ κβ XX cord-259745-69wk591l 110 6 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 110 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 110 8 got get VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 110 9 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 110 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 110 11 switching switch VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 110 12 times times CC cord-259745-69wk591l 110 13 t t NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 110 14 0 0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 110 15 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 110 16 t t NN cord-259745-69wk591l 110 17 1 1 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 110 18 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 110 19 pictured picture VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 110 20 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 111 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 111 2 result result NN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 3 proves prove VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 111 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 111 5 usefulness usefulness NN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 7 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 111 8 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 9 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 111 10 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 111 11 strict strict JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 111 12 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 111 13 distancing distancing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 14 during during IN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 15 an an DT cord-259745-69wk591l 111 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 17 disease disease NN cord-259745-69wk591l 111 18 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 112 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 112 2 observe observe VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 112 3 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 112 4 flattening flattening NN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 112 7 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 8 curve curve NN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 9 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 10 requested request VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 11 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 12 politicians politician NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 112 13 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 112 14 health health NN cord-259745-69wk591l 112 15 professionals professional NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 112 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 113 1 With with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 2 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 113 3 strict strict JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 113 4 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 113 5 distancing distancing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 6 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 7 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 113 8 limited limited JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 113 9 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 10 one one PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 113 11 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 113 12 save save VB cord-259745-69wk591l 113 13 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 14 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 113 15 find find VB cord-259745-69wk591l 113 16 vaccines vaccine NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 113 17 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 113 18 time time NN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 19 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 113 20 improve improve VB cord-259745-69wk591l 113 21 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 113 22 possibilities possibility NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 113 23 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 113 24 help help VB cord-259745-69wk591l 113 25 high high JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 113 26 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 113 27 risk risk NN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 28 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 113 29 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 113 30 hospitals hospital NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 113 31 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 114 1 To to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 114 2 see see VB cord-259745-69wk591l 114 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 114 4 influence influence NN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 5 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 114 7 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 114 8 distancing distancing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 114 10 look look VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 114 11 at at IN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 114 13 Italian italian JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 114 14 situation situation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 15 without without IN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 16 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 114 17 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 18 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 114 19 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 114 20 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 114 21 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 22 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 23 30 30 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 114 24 days day NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 114 25 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 26 fig fig NN cord-259745-69wk591l 114 27 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 115 1 12 12 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 115 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 115 3 κ κ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 115 4 = = SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 115 5 0,5 0,5 NFP cord-259745-69wk591l 115 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 115 7 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 115 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 115 9 10 10 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 115 10 % % NN cord-259745-69wk591l 115 11 high high JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 115 12 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 115 13 risk risk NN cord-259745-69wk591l 115 14 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 115 15 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 116 1 If if IN cord-259745-69wk591l 116 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 116 3 write write VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 116 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 116 5 2 2 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 116 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 116 7 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 116 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 116 9 5 5 LS cord-259745-69wk591l 116 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 116 11 resp resp NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 116 12 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 117 1 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 117 3 form form NN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 117 5 realize realize VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 117 6 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 117 8 number number NN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 9 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 10 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 117 11 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 117 12 decreases decrease VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 117 13 if if IN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 14 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 117 15 complied comply VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 117 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 118 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 118 2 relation relation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 118 4 8) 8) NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 118 5 shows show VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 118 6 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 7 there there EX cord-259745-69wk591l 118 8 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 118 9 two two CD cord-259745-69wk591l 118 10 possibilities possibility NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 118 11 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 118 13 rise rise NN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 14 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 15 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 118 16 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 118 17 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 118 18 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 118 19 inverted invert VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 20 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 118 21 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 118 22 medical medical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 118 23 burden burden NN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 24 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 118 25 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 118 26 reduced reduce VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 118 27 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 119 1 a a LS cord-259745-69wk591l 119 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 120 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 120 2 reduction reduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 120 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 120 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 120 5 stock stock NN cord-259745-69wk591l 120 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 120 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 120 8 species specie NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 120 9 S. S. NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 121 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 121 2 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 121 3 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 121 4 obtained obtain VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 121 5 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 121 6 immunization immunization NN cord-259745-69wk591l 121 7 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 121 8 vaccination vaccination NN cord-259745-69wk591l 121 9 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 122 1 Another another DT cord-259745-69wk591l 122 2 possibility possibility NN cord-259745-69wk591l 122 3 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 122 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 122 5 isolation isolation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 122 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 122 7 high high JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 122 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 122 9 risk risk NN cord-259745-69wk591l 122 10 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 122 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 122 12 70 70 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 122 13 years year NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 122 14 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 122 15 older old JJR cord-259745-69wk591l 122 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 122 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 123 1 Positive positive JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 123 2 tests test NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 123 3 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 123 4 antibodies antibody NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 123 5 reduce reduce VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 123 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 123 7 stock stock NN cord-259745-69wk591l 123 8 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 123 9 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 123 10 persons person NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 123 11 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 124 1 b b LS cord-259745-69wk591l 124 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 125 1 A a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 125 2 second second JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 125 3 possibility possibility NN cord-259745-69wk591l 125 4 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 125 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 125 6 reduction reduction NN cord-259745-69wk591l 125 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 125 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 125 9 infection infection NN cord-259745-69wk591l 125 10 rate rate NN cord-259745-69wk591l 125 11 κβ κβ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 125 12 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 126 1 This this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 126 2 can can MD cord-259745-69wk591l 126 3 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 126 4 achieved achieve VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 126 5 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 126 6 strict strict JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 126 7 lockdowns lockdown NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 126 8 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 126 9 social social JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 126 10 distancing distancing NN cord-259745-69wk591l 126 11 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 126 12 or or CC cord-259745-69wk591l 126 13 rigid rigid JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 126 14 sanitarian sanitarian NN cord-259745-69wk591l 126 15 moves move NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 126 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 126 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 127 1 CC CC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 127 2 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 127 3 BY BY NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 127 4 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 127 5 NC NC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 127 6 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 127 7 ND ND NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 127 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 127 9 International international JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 127 10 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 128 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 128 3 made make VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 4 available available JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 128 5 under under IN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 128 7 author author NN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 8 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 128 9 funder funder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 10 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 128 11 who who WP cord-259745-69wk591l 128 12 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 128 13 granted grant VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 128 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 128 16 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 17 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 128 18 display display VB cord-259745-69wk591l 128 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 128 20 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 21 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 128 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 129 1 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 129 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 129 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 129 4 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 129 5 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 129 6 not not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 129 7 peer peer NN cord-259745-69wk591l 129 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 129 9 reviewed review VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 129 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 130 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 130 2 copyright copyright NN cord-259745-69wk591l 130 3 holder holder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 130 4 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 130 5 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 130 6 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 130 7 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 131 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 131 2 doi doi NN cord-259745-69wk591l 131 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 132 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 132 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 133 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 133 2 results result NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 133 3 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 133 4 pessimistic pessimistic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 133 5 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 6 total total NN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 7 with with IN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 8 respect respect NN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 9 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 10 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 133 11 successful successful JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 133 12 fight fight NN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 13 against against IN cord-259745-69wk591l 133 14 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 133 15 COVID-19-virus COVID-19-virus NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 133 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 134 1 Hopefully hopefully RB cord-259745-69wk591l 134 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 134 3 reality reality NN cord-259745-69wk591l 134 4 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 134 5 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 134 6 bit bit NN cord-259745-69wk591l 134 7 more more RBR cord-259745-69wk591l 134 8 merciful merciful JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 134 9 than than IN cord-259745-69wk591l 134 10 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 134 11 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 134 12 model model NN cord-259745-69wk591l 134 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 135 1 But but CC cord-259745-69wk591l 135 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 135 3 rather rather RB cord-259745-69wk591l 135 4 err err VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 135 5 on on IN cord-259745-69wk591l 135 6 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 135 7 pessimistic pessimistic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 135 8 side side NN cord-259745-69wk591l 135 9 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 135 10 be be VB cord-259745-69wk591l 135 11 surprised surprise VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 135 12 by by IN cord-259745-69wk591l 135 13 more more JJR cord-259745-69wk591l 135 14 benign benign JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 135 15 developments development NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 135 16 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 136 1 Note note VB cord-259745-69wk591l 136 2 again again RB cord-259745-69wk591l 136 3 that that IN cord-259745-69wk591l 136 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 136 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 136 6 β β NN cord-259745-69wk591l 136 7 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 136 8 κ κ NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 136 9 are be VBP cord-259745-69wk591l 136 10 guessed guess VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 136 11 very very RB cord-259745-69wk591l 136 12 roughly roughly RB cord-259745-69wk591l 136 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 137 1 Also also RB cord-259745-69wk591l 137 2 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 137 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 137 4 percentage percentage NN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 5 α α NN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 6 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 7 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 137 8 group group NN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 9 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 10 high high JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 137 11 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 137 12 risk risk NN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 13 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 137 14 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 137 15 possibly possibly RB cord-259745-69wk591l 137 16 overestimated overestimate VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 137 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 138 1 Depending depend VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 138 2 on on IN cord-259745-69wk591l 138 3 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 138 4 capabilities capability NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 138 5 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 138 6 performance performance NN cord-259745-69wk591l 138 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 138 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 138 9 health health NN cord-259745-69wk591l 138 10 system system NN cord-259745-69wk591l 138 11 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 138 12 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 138 13 respective respective JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 138 14 countries country NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 138 15 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 138 16 those those DT cord-259745-69wk591l 138 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 138 18 may may MD cord-259745-69wk591l 138 19 look look VB cord-259745-69wk591l 138 20 different different JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 138 21 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 139 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 139 2 interpretation interpretation NN cord-259745-69wk591l 139 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 139 4 κ κ NN cord-259745-69wk591l 139 5 as as IN cord-259745-69wk591l 139 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 139 7 random random JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 139 8 variable variable NN cord-259745-69wk591l 139 9 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 139 10 thinkable thinkable JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 139 11 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 139 12 too too RB cord-259745-69wk591l 139 13 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 140 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 140 2 3 3 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 140 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 140 4 G. G. NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 5 Bärwolff Bärwolff NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 6 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 140 7 Numerics Numerics NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 8 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 140 9 engineers engineer NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 140 10 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 140 11 physicists physicist NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 140 12 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 140 13 computer computer NN cord-259745-69wk591l 140 14 scientists scientist NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 140 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 140 16 3rd 3rd NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 17 ed ed NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 18 . . NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 19 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 140 20 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 140 21 German German NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 140 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 140 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 141 1 Springer Springer NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 141 2 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 141 3 Spektrum Spektrum NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 141 4 2020 2020 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 141 5 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 142 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 142 2 4 4 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 142 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 142 4 Toshihisa Toshihisa NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 142 5 Tomie Tomie NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 142 6 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 142 7 Understandig Understandig NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 142 8 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 142 9 present present JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 142 10 status status NN cord-259745-69wk591l 142 11 and and CC cord-259745-69wk591l 142 12 forcasting forcasting NN cord-259745-69wk591l 142 13 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 142 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 142 15 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 142 16 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 142 17 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 143 1 medRxiv.preprint medrxiv.preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 143 2 2020 2020 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 143 3 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 143 4 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 144 1 CC CC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 144 2 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 144 3 BY BY NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 144 4 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 144 5 NC NC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 144 6 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 144 7 ND ND NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 144 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 144 9 International international JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 144 10 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 145 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 145 3 made make VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 4 available available JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 145 5 under under IN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 145 7 author author NN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 8 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 145 9 funder funder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 10 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 145 11 who who WP cord-259745-69wk591l 145 12 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 145 13 granted grant VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 145 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 145 16 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 17 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 145 18 display display VB cord-259745-69wk591l 145 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 145 20 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 21 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 145 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 146 1 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 146 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 146 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 146 4 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 146 5 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 146 6 not not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 146 7 peer peer NN cord-259745-69wk591l 146 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 146 9 reviewed review VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 146 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 147 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 147 2 copyright copyright NN cord-259745-69wk591l 147 3 holder holder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 147 4 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 147 5 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 147 6 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 147 7 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 148 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 148 2 doi doi NN cord-259745-69wk591l 148 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 149 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 149 2 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 149 3 Figure Figure NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 149 4 12 12 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 149 5 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 150 1 Italian italian JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 150 2 history history NN cord-259745-69wk591l 150 3 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 150 4 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 150 5 infected infected JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 150 6 people people NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 150 7 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 150 8 high high JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 150 9 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 150 10 risk risk NN cord-259745-69wk591l 150 11 groups group NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 150 12 depending depend VBG cord-259745-69wk591l 150 13 on on IN cord-259745-69wk591l 150 14 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 150 15 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 150 16 lockdown lockdown NN cord-259745-69wk591l 150 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 150 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 150 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 150 20 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 151 1 CC CC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 151 2 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 151 3 BY BY NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 151 4 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 151 5 NC NC NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 151 6 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 151 7 ND ND NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 151 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 151 9 International international JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 151 10 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-259745-69wk591l 152 2 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 152 3 made make VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 4 available available JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 152 5 under under IN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 6 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 152 7 author author NN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 8 / / SYM cord-259745-69wk591l 152 9 funder funder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 10 , , , cord-259745-69wk591l 152 11 who who WP cord-259745-69wk591l 152 12 has have VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 152 13 granted grant VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 152 15 a a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 152 16 license license NN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 17 to to TO cord-259745-69wk591l 152 18 display display VB cord-259745-69wk591l 152 19 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 152 20 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 21 in in IN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-259745-69wk591l 152 23 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 153 1 is be VBZ cord-259745-69wk591l 153 2 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 153 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 153 4 which which WDT cord-259745-69wk591l 153 5 was be VBD cord-259745-69wk591l 153 6 not not RB cord-259745-69wk591l 153 7 peer peer NN cord-259745-69wk591l 153 8 - - HYPH cord-259745-69wk591l 153 9 reviewed review VBN cord-259745-69wk591l 153 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-259745-69wk591l 154 1 The the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 154 2 copyright copyright NN cord-259745-69wk591l 154 3 holder holder NN cord-259745-69wk591l 154 4 for for IN cord-259745-69wk591l 154 5 this this DT cord-259745-69wk591l 154 6 preprint preprint NN cord-259745-69wk591l 154 7 . . . cord-259745-69wk591l 155 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050229 CD cord-259745-69wk591l 155 2 doi doi NN cord-259745-69wk591l 155 3 : : : cord-259745-69wk591l 156 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-259745-69wk591l 157 1 preprint preprint NNP cord-259745-69wk591l 157 2 A a DT cord-259745-69wk591l 157 3 contribution contribution NN cord-259745-69wk591l 157 4 to to IN cord-259745-69wk591l 157 5 the the DT cord-259745-69wk591l 157 6 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-259745-69wk591l 157 7 theory theory NN cord-259745-69wk591l 157 8 of of IN cord-259745-69wk591l 157 9 epidemics epidemic NNS