key: cord-267762-mzon01fd authors: Ferreira, A.; Oliveira-e-Silva, A.; Bettencourt, P. title: Chronic treatment with hydroxychloroquine and SARS-CoV-2 infection. date: 2020-06-29 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.26.20056507 sha: doc_id: 267762 cord_uid: mzon01fd Background: Hydroxychloroquine sulphate (HCQ) is being scrutinized for repositioning in the treatment and prevention of SARS-Cov-2 infection. This antimalarial drug is also chronically used to treat patients with autoimmune diseases. Methods: By analyzing the Portuguese anonymized data on private and public based medical prescriptions we have identified all cases chronically receiving HCQ for the management of diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis, and other autoimmune diseases. Additionally, we have detected all laboratory confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and all laboratory confirmed negative cases in the Portuguese population (mandatorily registered in a centrally managed database). Cross linking the two sets of data has allowed us to compare the proportion of HCQ chronic treatment (at least 2 grams per month) in laboratory confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection with laboratory confirmed negative cases. Results: Out of 26,815 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, 77 (0.29%) were chronically treated with HCQ, while 1,215 (0.36%) out of 333,489 negative patients were receiving it chronically (P=0.04). After adjustment for age, sex, and chronic treatment with corticosteroids and/or immunosuppressants, the odds ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection for chronic treatment with HCQ has been 0.51 (0.37-0.70). Conclusions: Our data suggest that chronic treatment with HCQ confer protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Several in vitro studies have shown chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulphate (HCQ) to be effective in both preventing and treating SARS-CoV-2 infection in isolated cells (1) (2) (3) . Chloroquine phosphate and HCQ were also found effective in the treatment of COVID-19 patients in small nonrandomized or unblinded clinical studies (4) (5) (6) . A recent observational study has shown no association between HCQ use and the composite endpoint of intubation or death in hospitalized patients (7) . However, up until today there are no available results from well designed, randomized, double blinded, placebo controlled clinical trials showing any evidence of a therapeutic or preventive effect of these drugs in SARS-CoV-2 infection. These two drugs are also chronically used to treat systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other autoimmune diseases. SLE patients are at increased risk of viral infections (8). Increased ratios of serious bacterial and viral infections have been shown or are expected in different autoimmune diseases (8-11). Thus, patients with these diseases should be expected to have increased ratios of SARS-CoV-2 infection as compared to the general population. Antimalarials appear to have a protective effect against infections in patients with SLE (11, 12) . To evaluate the effect of chronic treatment with HCQ for other medical conditions in SARS-COV-2 infection incidence. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. . https://doi.org /10.1101 /10. /2020 Patients and methods The Portuguese National Health Service (Serviço Nacional de Saúde -SNS) has a centrally controlled electronic database where all drug prescriptions, both from public and private medical care, are systematically registered (Prescrição Anonymized data were extracted from these databases. By analyzing these sets of data, we were able to detect all patients with SARS-CoV-2 confirmed infections and all clinically suspected but non-confirmed patients between Mars 2, 2020 (the date of the first Portuguese case) and the moment of the analysis. All cases prescribed with HCQ between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2019 for other medical conditions were documented too. Additionally, we identified all prescriptions of corticosteroids (prednisolone, methylprednisolone, dexamethasone and deflazacort) and/or immunosuppressants . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. To be considered under chronic treatment with HCQ, cases had to be prescribed with at least 2 grams of HCQ per month, on average. Chloroquine phosphate is not available in Portugal. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. Patients with, at least, 6 months on corticosteroids and/or immunosuppressants were considered under chronic immunosuppressant treatment. For each case, the first 2019 HCQ prescription was identified (index prescription). Then, the total HCQ dose (in grams) prescribed from the index prescription (inclusive) was quantified up until the last day of 2019. Finally, the average monthly dose of HCQ was computed. The same methodology was used for corticosteroids and immunosuppressants, but the number of prescriptions (not grams) was quantified. Non-residents in Portugal were excluded from the study. Anonymized raw data were extracted from the abovementioned databases on July 2, 2020. The raw data were revised to ensure internal consistency and . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. In the set of patients with case definition, 1,292 received HCQ (at least 2 grams per month) and 897 were prescribed with corticosteroids and/or immunosuppressants for 6 months at least. The results of univariate analysis are summarized in table 1. SARS-CoV-2 positive patients were older and more frequently of the male gender than negative patients. The proportion of HCQ chronic treatment was higher in negative patients is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20056507 doi: medRxiv preprint PCR test for HCQ chronic treatment was 0.51 (0.37-0.70). Immunosuppressive treatment was found to be positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection with an odds ratio of 2.06 (1.51-2.82). As far as we know, this is the first study retrospectively assessing the relationship between chronic treatment with HCQ and SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large sample of patients at a nation-while level. In this study, we only included patients chronically prescribed with HCQ during 2019, whose prescriptions continued into 2020. This way, we were able to exclude those who have started taking HCQ aiming to treat or prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Otherwise, this would be a confounding factor in the analysis of the data. Although we have no information on comorbidities of the patients registered in the databases used in this study, it seems fair to assume that patients who chronically received HCQ at a dose of at least 2 grams per month have SLE, RA or other autoimmune diseases. In fact, in Portugal, HCQ is approved for the treatment of SLE, discoid lupus erythematosus, RA, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, and for the prophylaxis and treatment of malaria, which is not endemic (only imported cases). In the last case, the dose and duration of the treatment are much lower than the ones selected for inclusion in this study. Thus, patients using HCQ for prophylaxis or treatment of malaria were excluded from the study by the inclusion criteria we have used. The prevalence of SLE and RA in Portugal is 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively (13) . These figures have allowed us to . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. Patients with SLE or RA have numerous cellular and humoral abnormalities that contribute to an increased susceptibility to infectious agents (14) (15) (16) . SLE patients have a 3.9 times higher incidence rate of severe herpes simplex virus infection than controls (9) . SLE patients treated with glucocorticoids alone also have a 3.9-fold hazard ratio for severe infections when compared to patients treated with HCQ alone (11) . The prevalence of papillomavirus and cytomegalovirus is supposedly higher in patients with autoimmune diseases too (9, 10) . Besides the negative effect of the immunologic disturbance, these patients usually receive immunosuppressive drugs too, making them even more susceptible to infection (14) (15) (16) . Thus, the available data suggest that autoimmune patients are at increased risk of viral infections. The benefits of HCQ treatment in this context, if any, depend on its ability to prevent those infections. The COVID-19 risk scoring guide of the British Society for Rheumatology (17) seems to adopt the same orientation, by scoring with zero the use of HCQ while it scores with three high-dose corticosteroids and cyclophosphamide. Our data give further support to this suggestion. We were able to show that patients taking HCQ have had reduced odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This effect was most evident after adjustment for age, sex, and chronic immunosuppressive treatment, increasing the likelihood that chronic treatment with HCQ actually has a protective effect against SARS-CoV-2 infection. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. A recent paper compared the proportions of HCQ use in SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative patients (18) , finding no differences between the two groups. However, as study limitation, the authors stated that the duration of treatment was not documented and only 3 patients received HCQ in the positive cases group. An Indian study showed that HCQ (in the dosage currently used in the prophylaxis of malaria and after four maintenance doses) was effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in health care workers (19) , while another paper showed no statistically significant effect of HCQ (in the dose of 600 mg/day for four days, after a loading dose of 800 mg plus 600 mg after 6 to 8 hours) in postexposure prevention (20) . The first two studies evaluated the effectiveness of HCQ as pre-exposure prophylaxis, while the latter tested its effectiveness as post-exposure prophylaxis. Taken together, these results suggest that a relatively long period of HCQ treatment may be necessary in patients without prior contact with the virus to obtain a preventive effect. We believe our data supports this hypothesis. Available data show that there was a significant increase of HCQ prescriptions in March 2020 and in the first two weeks of April 2020. Additional studies are needed to understand whether this increase in HCQ consumption has had any effect on the evolution of the outbreak in Portugal and on the incidence of adverse events. In conclusion, our findings suggest that HCQ might have a preventive effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. Despite having a considerable number of lab tests that were missing in the official electronic registries, we believe that we have captured all suspected confirmed and unconfirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection by checking the lab data (SINAVE LAB) against de the obligatory registry database (SINAVE MED). Furthermore, all positive and negative cases included in our sample were confirmed by PCR testing, giving consistency to our results. The fact that we do not have information on comorbidities may be a major limitation of the study, because it did not allow us to exclude a potential selection bias -for example, physicians may have decided to prescribe HCQ to patients with fewer comorbidities, and because it was not possible to adjust the effect of HCQ to such comorbidities. Thus, the observed effect could be related to a better health status of patients and not to a preventive action of HCQ. However, clinical guidelines recommend the use of antimalarials in all cases (21) , regardless of the existence of comorbidities (namely, those that may affect resistance to infection, such as chronic renal failure). It is therefore to be expected that physicians have followed those recommendations and that no such selection bias has occurred. We do not have any data on the therapeutic compliance of patients, and this is a study limitation too. Although the proportions of HCQ chronic treatment are low, the difference in proportions between the two groups is unlikely to be cancelled out by the study pitfalls mentioned above. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. Considering the low toxicity (22) (23) (24) and the enormous clinical experience with HCQ utilization, these results strongly suggest it should continue to be used in patients with autoimmune diseases, mostly in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Whether it should be used as a pre-exposure prophylactic measure in other risk groups or in the general population is unknown. We believe that our findings suggest that at least it should be considered for this purpose. The lockdown is severely affecting the world's economy, increasing unemployment, and inducing more suffering than the disease itself. Eventually, its effects on the welfare of the populations will be much worse than the potential adverse effects of HCQ prophylaxis. Furthermore, it cannot be maintained for an extended period. Thus, while waiting for an effective and safe vaccine, a chemoprophylaxis-based strategy, using this inexpensive and safe drug, continuously monitored and modified according to the results of ongoing clinical trials, may be justified. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. negative cases -332,663) due to missing data. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20056507 doi: medRxiv preprint Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity Risk of severe herpes simplex virus infection in systemic lupus erythematosus: analysis of epidemiology and risk factors analysis in Taiwan Risk factors for cytomegalovirus disease in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): a systematic review Risk of human papillomavirus infection in women with rheumatic disease: cervical cancer screening and prevention Risk of Serious Infection for Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Starting Glucocorticoids with or without Antimalarials Predictors of major infections in systemic lupus erythematous Epidemiological study of rheumatic diseases in Portugal -EpiReumaPt Immunopathogenesis and spectrum of infections in systemic lupus erythematosus. Semin Arthritis Rheum International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted The risk of infections associated with rheumatoid arthritis, with its comorbidity and treatment Infections in systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis Continuous hydroxychloroquine or colchicine therapy does not prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2: Insights from a large healthcare database analysis Healthcare workers & SARS-CoV-2 infection in India: A case-control investigation in the time of COVID-19 A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 2019 update of the EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus Antimalarials -are they effective and safe in rheumatic diseases? Reumatologia It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 29, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20056507 doi: medRxiv preprint