id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-103598-8umv06ox	Ambrosio, Benjamin	On a coupled time-dependent SIR models fitting with New York and New-Jersey states COVID-19 data	2020-06-10		.txt	text/plain	4127	296	73	This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people becoming infected is adjusted over time in order to fit the available data. In this short article, we first introduce a simple SIR model, in which we adjust a key parameter k standing for a control on the Susceptible-Infected rate, and secondarily the death rate, in order to fit the data of the pandemic in NY state in March 2020, and provide predictions for a near future. Accordingly, the main key points of this article are that, 1) it highlights the dynamics and epidemiological characteristics which have been discussed in press and health policies; It highlights qualitatively how lockdown policies have decreased the spread of the virus and provides prediction and explanation of an upcoming apex, 2) it fits real data provided for the New York state and 3) it fits the data of NJ state by considering coupled equations taking into account the daily fluxes between NY and NJ.	./cache/cord-103598-8umv06ox.txt	./txt/cord-103598-8umv06ox.txt