id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-152881-k1hx1m61	Toda, Alexis Akira	Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact	2020-03-25		.txt	text/plain	4655	361	67	This paper aims to help decision making by building a mathematical epidemic model, estimating it using the up-to-date data of COVID-19 cases around the world, making out-of-sample predictions, and discussing optimal policy and economic impact. Due to the high transmission rate and lack of herd immunity, in the absence of mitigation measures such as social distancing, the virus spreads quickly and may infect around 30 percent of the population at the peak of the epidemic. 4 Although the fraction of cases c(t) is likely significantly underestimated because infected individuals do not appear in the data unless they are tested, it does not cause problems for estimating the parameter of interest (the transmission rate β) because under-reporting is absorbed by the constant y 0 in (2.3b), which only affects the onset of the epidemic by a few weeks without changing the overall dynamics (see Figure 5 ).	./cache/cord-152881-k1hx1m61.txt	./txt/cord-152881-k1hx1m61.txt