id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-229937-fy90oebs	Amaro, J. E.	Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models	2020-05-14		.txt	text/plain	4902	278	59	The Death or 'D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters. Additionally, D-model calculations are benchmarked with more sophisticated and reliable calculations using the extended SIR (ESIR) and Monte Carlo Planck (MCP) models -also developed in this work -which provide similar results, but allow for a more coherent spatial-time disentanglement of the various effects present during a pandemic.	./cache/cord-229937-fy90oebs.txt	./txt/cord-229937-fy90oebs.txt