id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-315248-hww7duvj	Albaladejo, Isabel P.	A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis	2020-12-31		.txt	text/plain	7202	370	58	The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination. Taking into account the logistic growth models by Lundtorp and Wanhill (2001) and Albaladejo and Martínez-García (2017) , this paper will show that the TALC theory can be validated by testing whether a logistic or bilogistic growth trend is a long-run equilibrium path to tourism evolution. Albaladejo and Martínez-García (2017) go further and propose a multilogistic growth model, which is characterized by a non-constant carrying capacity, to represent the superposition of several life cycles in the tourism performance of a destination. A rejection of the null hypothesis of Harley-Mills test would indicate that the shocks to tourism are temporary, and that tourism arrivals in Spain would probably be a stationary time series around a double S-shaped curve, providing empirical evidence in favor of two tourism area life cycles.	./cache/cord-315248-hww7duvj.txt	./txt/cord-315248-hww7duvj.txt