id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-169288-aeyz2t6c	Runvik, Haakan	Initialization of a Disease Transmission Model	2020-07-17		.txt	text/plain	3354	197	51	Approaches to the calculation of the full state vector of a larger epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in Sweden at the initial time instant from available data and with a simplified dynamical model are proposed and evaluated. This paper is concerned with using publicly available epidemiological data for estimating suitable initial conditions for a large mechanistic general Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of the Swedish COVID-19 outbreak. The problem of estimating the infected, exposed, and asymptomatic populations at a given point in time (model initialization point) is therefore investigated, based on the data for cumulative incidence measured over a fixed time horizon. The remaining compartments of the Markov chain model do not influence the infected, exposed or asymptomatic populations and are therefore not included at present in the considered estimation problem. First, linear model (1) was used to generate the data, with the same Poisson-distributed state dependent noise sources as derived for the estimators.	./cache/cord-169288-aeyz2t6c.txt	./txt/cord-169288-aeyz2t6c.txt