id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-005350-19za0msu	O’Regan, Suzanne M.	Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination	2013-05-31		.txt	text/plain	14420	802	54	Using the stochastic differential equation, we can obtain analytical expressions for statistical signatures of leading indicators and early warning signals, including the power spectrum and autocorrelation function (see Appendix A for details). To investigate the results of this theory for a particular parameter set (Table 7) , we calculated leading indicators of elimination and emergence, assuming alternatively that (a) the mean proportion of infectious individuals is given by the deterministic endemic equilibrium ( → 0 theory) or (b) assuming it is given by the current state of the fast-slow system approaching a transition. We also compared the elimination indicators with those calculated assuming that the mean proportion of infectious individuals was given by the deterministic endemic equilibrium from the limiting case models with no immigration. The goal of our study was to develop the theory of such early warning signals and leading indicators for infectious disease transmission systems that meet the assumptions of the familiar SIS and SIR models and which are forced through a critical transition by changes in transmission.	./cache/cord-005350-19za0msu.txt	./txt/cord-005350-19za0msu.txt