id sid tid token lemma pos cord-225183-6rusimb5 1 1 key key NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 1 2 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 1 cord-225183 cord-225183 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 2 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 3 6rusimb5 6rusimb5 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 4 authors author NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 5 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 6 Boukai Boukai NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 8 Ben Ben NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 9 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 10 Wang Wang NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 12 Jiayue Jiayue NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 13 title title NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 14 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 15 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 16 Modeling Modeling NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 17 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 18 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 19 Positivity Positivity NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 20 Rate Rate NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 21 -- -- : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 23 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 24 experience experience NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 25 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 26 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 27 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 28 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 29 07 07 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 30 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 31 09 09 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 32 journal journal NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 33 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 34 nan nan NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 35 DOI DOI NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 36 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 37 nan nan NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 2 38 sha sha NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 1 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 2 e2141086ad35d67ce212a71c75af3331d069d6f9 e2141086ad35d67ce212a71c75af3331d069d6f9 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 3 doc_id doc_id NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 5 225183 225183 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 6 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 3 7 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 4 1 6rusimb5 6rusimb5 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 2 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 3 short short JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 4 technical technical JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 5 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 7 model model VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 9 within within IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 11 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 12 framework framework NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 14 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 15 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 16 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 17 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 18 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 19 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 20 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 21 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 23 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 24 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 25 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 26 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 27 accounting account VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 28 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 29 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 30 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 31 substantial substantial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 32 variability variability NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 34 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 35 overdispeartion overdispeartion NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 37 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 38 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 39 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 40 count count NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 41 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 42 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 43 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 44 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 5 45 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 2 approach approach NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 4 take take VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 6 results result VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 7 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 8 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 9 simple simple JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 10 procedure procedure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 11 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 12 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 14 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 15 posteriori posteriori NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 16 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 17 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 18 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 19 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 20 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 21 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 22 positivity positivity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 23 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 24 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 25 allows allow VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 26 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 27 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 28 easy easy JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 29 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 30 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 31 straightforward straightforward JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 32 adaptation adaptation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 33 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 34 any any DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 35 agency agency NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 36 tracking track VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 37 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 38 results result NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 39 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 40 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 41 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 6 42 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 2 numerical numerical JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 3 results result NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 4 provided provide VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 5 herein herein RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 6 were be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 7 obtained obtain VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 8 via via IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 9 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 10 updatable updatable JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 11 R R NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 12 Markdown Markdown NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 13 document document NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 7 14 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 2 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 3 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 4 Department Department NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 5 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 6 Health Health NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 9 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 12 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 13 any any DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 14 other other JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 15 similar similar JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 16 entity entity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 17 across across IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 19 nation nation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 20 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 21 world world NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 22 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 23 wide wide RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 24 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 25 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 26 closely closely RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 27 monitoring monitor VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 8 28 nowadays nowadays RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 1 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 2 pandemic pandemic NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 5 2019 2019 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 6 novel novel NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 7 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 9 AKA aka RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 10 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 11 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 9 12 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 1 According accord VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 2 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 4 World World NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 5 Health Health NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 6 Organizing Organizing NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 9 WHO who WP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 12 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 13 highly highly RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 14 contagious contagious JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 15 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 16 virus virus NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 17 was be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 18 first first RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 19 identified identify VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 20 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 21 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 22 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 23 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 24 city city NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 25 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 26 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 27 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 28 China China NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 29 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 30 early early JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 31 January January NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 32 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 10 33 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 1 Since since IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 2 then then RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 4 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 5 virus virus NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 6 continues continue VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 7 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 8 spread spread VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 9 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 10 infect infect VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 11 people people NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 12 around around IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 14 world world NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 15 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 16 including include VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 17 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 18 United United NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 19 States States NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 11 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 1 On on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 2 March March NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 3 11 11 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 5 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 6 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 8 WHO who WP cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 9 published publish VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 10 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 11 assessment assessment NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 12 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 14 can can MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 15 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 16 characterized characterize VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 17 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 18 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 19 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 12 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 1 As as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 2 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 4 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 5 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 6 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 7 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 9 July July NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 10 7 7 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 12 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 15 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 16 John John NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 17 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 18 University University NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 19 's 's POS cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 20 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 21 Resource Resource NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 22 Center Center NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 23 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 24 reported report VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 25 over over IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 26 11,500,000 11,500,000 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 27 infected infected JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 28 people people NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 29 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 30 538,000 538,000 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 31 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 32 due due JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 33 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 34 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 35 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 36 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 37 globally globally RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 38 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 39 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 40 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 41 over over IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 42 2,938,000 2,938,000 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 43 infections infection NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 44 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 45 130,000 130,000 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 46 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 47 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 48 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 49 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 50 USA USA NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 51 alone alone JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 13 52 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 2 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 4 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 5 was be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 6 not not RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 7 spared spare VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 10 contagious contagious JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 11 impact impact NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 12 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 14 virus virus NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 14 15 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 1 On on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 2 March March NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 3 6 6 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 5 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 6 confirmed confirm VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 8 first first JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 9 case case NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 10 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 12 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 13 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 14 Hoosier Hoosier NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 15 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 16 recent recent JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 17 travel travel NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 15 18 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 1 On on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 2 March March NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 3 16 16 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 6 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 7 reported report VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 9 first first JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 10 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 11 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 12 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 13 due due IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 14 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 16 15 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 2 subsequently subsequently RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 3 worked work VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 4 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 5 federal federal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 6 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 7 local local JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 8 partners partner NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 10 including include VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 12 Centers Centers NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 13 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 14 Disease Disease NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 15 Control Control NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 16 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 17 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 20 CDC CDC NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 23 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 24 respond respond VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 25 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 26 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 27 pandemic pandemic NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 28 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 29 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 30 grave grave JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 31 public public JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 32 health health NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 33 situation situation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 17 34 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 1 Among among IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 2 other other JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 3 responses response NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 6 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 7 created create VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 8 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 9 dashboard dashboard NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 10 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 11 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 12 data data NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 13 depository depository NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 14 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 15 tracking tracking NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 16 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 17 reporting report VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 19 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 20 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 21 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 22 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 23 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 24 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 25 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 26 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 27 as as RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 28 well well RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 29 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 30 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 31 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 32 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 33 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 34 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 35 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 36 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 37 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 38 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 39 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 40 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 41 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 42 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 18 43 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 1 While while IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 2 there there EX cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 3 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 4 substantial substantial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 6 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 7 urgent urgent JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 9 effort effort NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 10 being be VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 11 made make VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 13 worldwide worldwide RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 15 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 16 modeling modeling NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 17 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 19 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 20 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 21 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 23 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 24 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 25 infection infection NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 26 fatality fatality NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 27 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 28 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 29 IFR IFR NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 31 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 32 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 33 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 35 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 36 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 37 example example NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 38 Basu Basu NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 40 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 43 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 44 there there EX cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 45 has have VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 46 been be VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 47 very very RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 48 little little JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 49 attention attention NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 50 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 51 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 52 modeling model VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 53 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 54 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 55 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 56 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 57 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 58 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 59 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 60 often often RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 61 referred refer VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 62 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 63 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 64 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 65 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 66 positivity positivity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 67 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 68 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 19 69 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 2 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 3 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 5 model model VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 6 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 7 within within IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 9 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 10 framework framework NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 13 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 14 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 15 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 16 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 17 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 18 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 19 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 21 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 22 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 23 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 24 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 25 accounting account VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 26 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 27 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 28 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 29 substantial substantial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 30 variability variability NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 31 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 32 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 33 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 34 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 35 test test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 36 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 20 37 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 2 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 3 approach approach NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 4 has have VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 5 been be VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 6 used use VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 7 successfully successfully RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 8 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 9 other other JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 11 related related JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 12 studies study NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 14 e.g. e.g. RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 15 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 16 Dana Dana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 18 at at IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 21 19 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 22 1 el el NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 22 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 2 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 5 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 6 Bayes Bayes NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 8 at at IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 23 9 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 24 1 el el NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 24 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 25 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 25 2 2020 2020 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 25 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 25 4 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 1 However however RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 3 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 5 best good JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 6 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 7 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 8 knowledge knowledge NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 10 none none NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 11 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 13 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 14 studies study NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 16 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 17 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 19 have have VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 20 direct direct JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 21 relevancy relevancy NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 22 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 23 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 24 modeling modeling NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 25 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 26 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 27 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 28 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 29 positivity positivity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 26 30 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 2 approach approach NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 4 take take VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 6 provides provide VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 7 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 8 method method NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 9 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 10 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 11 valid valid JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 12 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 13 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 14 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 15 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 16 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 17 allows allow VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 18 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 19 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 20 easy easy JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 21 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 22 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 23 straightforward straightforward JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 24 adaptation adaptation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 25 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 26 any any DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 27 agency agency NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 28 tracking track VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 29 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 30 results result NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 31 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 32 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 33 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 27 34 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 28 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 1 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 2 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 3 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 4 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 5 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 6 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 7 retrieval retrieval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 8 through through IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 10 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 11 Data Data NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 12 Hub Hub NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 14 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 16 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 17 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 18 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 19 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 21 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 22 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 23 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 24 file file NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 25 covid covid NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 26 report report NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 27 date.xlsx date.xlsx NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 29 28 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 2 includes include VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 4 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 5 records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 6 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 8 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 9 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 10 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 11 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 12 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 14 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 15 total total NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 17 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 19 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 20 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 21 testings testing NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 22 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 23 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 24 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 25 count count NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 26 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 27 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 28 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 29 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 30 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 32 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 33 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 34 B B NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 35 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 36 additional additional JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 37 information information NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 30 39 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 1 For for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 2 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 3 purpose purpose NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 4 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 5 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 6 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 9 focus focus VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 10 attention attention NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 11 only only RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 12 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 13 two two CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 14 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 15 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 16 quantities quantity NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 17 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 18 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 19 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 20 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 21 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 22 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 23 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 24 test test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 25 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 26 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 27 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 28 TEST test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 29 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 30 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 31 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 32 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 33 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 34 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 35 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 36 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 31 37 , , . cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 2 COUNT COUNT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 3 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 4 were be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 5 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 6 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 9 successive successive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 11 127 127 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 12 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 13 records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 14 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 15 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 32 16 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 1 Their -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 2 ratio ratio NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 5 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 6 Percentage percentage NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 8 Positive Positive NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 9 Tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 11 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 14 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 15 used use VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 16 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 17 tracking tracking NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 18 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 19 monitoring monitor VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 21 pandemic pandemic NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 22 's 's POS cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 23 progression progression NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 24 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 25 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 26 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 27 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 28 localities locality NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 33 29 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 2 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 3 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 4 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 5 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 6 important important JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 7 indicator indicator NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 10 scope scope NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 11 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 12 extent extent NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 13 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 14 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 15 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 16 's 's POS cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 17 testing testing NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 18 enterprise enterprise NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 19 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 20 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 21 high high JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 22 value value NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 23 suggests suggest VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 24 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 25 testing testing NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 26 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 27 conducted conduct VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 28 primarily primarily RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 29 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 30 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 31 sickest sick JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 32 patients patient NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 33 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 34 less less RBR cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 35 so so RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 36 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 37 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 38 mild mild JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 39 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 40 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 41 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 42 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 34 43 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 1 A a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 2 lower low JJR cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 3 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 4 may may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 5 suggest suggest VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 6 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 7 testing testing NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 8 has have VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 9 been be VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 10 extended extend VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 11 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 12 cover cover VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 13 patients patient NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 14 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 15 milder mild JJR cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 16 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 17 no no DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 18 symptoms symptom NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 19 at at RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 20 all all RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 35 21 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 1 According accord VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 2 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 4 CDC CDC NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 5 Guidelines Guidelines NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 7 7 7 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 10 among among IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 11 other other JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 12 stipulations stipulation NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 14 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 15 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 16 ≤ ≤ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 17 15 15 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 18 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 19 serves serve VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 20 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 21 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 22 threshold threshold NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 23 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 24 entering enter VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 25 Phase Phase NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 26 II II NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 27 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 28 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 29 reopening reopen VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 30 plans plan NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 31 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 32 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 33 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 34 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 35 whereas whereas IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 36 achieving achieve VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 37 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 38 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 39 ≤ ≤ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 40 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 41 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 42 serves serve VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 43 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 44 threshold threshold NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 45 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 46 entering enter VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 47 Phase Phase NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 48 III III NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 49 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 50 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 51 reopening reopen VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 52 plans plan NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 36 53 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 1 At at IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 2 present present NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 5 7-day 7-day JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 6 average average NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 8 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 9 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 11 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 12 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 13 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 15 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 16 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 17 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 18 7.61 7.61 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 19 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 20 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 21 cumulatively cumulatively RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 23 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 24 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 25 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 26 stands stand VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 27 at at IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 28 9.18 9.18 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 29 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 31 i.e. i.e. FW cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 32 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 33 total total JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 34 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 35 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 36 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 37 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 38 relative relative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 39 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 40 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 41 total total JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 42 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 43 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 44 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 45 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 46 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 47 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 48 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 49 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 50 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 51 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 52 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 53 Dashboard Dashboard NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 54 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 55 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 56 enabled enable VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 57 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 58 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 59 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 60 enter enter VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 61 Phase Phase NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 62 III iii CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 63 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 64 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 65 reopening reopen VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 66 plans plan NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 37 67 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 1 Thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 4 importance importance NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 5 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 7 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 8 modeling modeling NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 9 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 10 tracking track VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 11 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 12 percentage percentage NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 13 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 14 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 15 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 16 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 17 can can MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 18 not not RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 19 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 20 overstated overstate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 21 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 22 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 24 has have VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 25 tremendous tremendous JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 26 economic economic JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 27 implications implication NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 28 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 29 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 30 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 31 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 32 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 33 people people NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 38 34 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 2 particular particular JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 4 constructing construct VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 5 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 6 valid valid JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 7 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 8 model model NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 10 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 11 predicts predict VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 12 reasonably reasonably RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 13 well well RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 14 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 15 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 16 next next JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 17 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 18 day day NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 19 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 20 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 21 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 22 would would MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 23 provide provide VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 24 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 25 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 26 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 27 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 28 early early JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 29 sign sign NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 30 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 31 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 32 looming loom VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 33 surge surge NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 34 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 35 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 36 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 37 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 38 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 39 would would MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 40 allow allow VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 41 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 42 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 43 implement implement VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 44 corrective corrective JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 45 measures measure NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 46 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 47 policies policy NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 39 48 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 1 Since since IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 2 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 3 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 4 records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 5 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 7 latest late JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 8 few few JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 9 days day NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 10 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 11 still still RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 12 updating update VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 15 included include VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 16 records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 17 up up IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 18 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 19 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 20 last last JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 21 3 3 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 22 days day NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 23 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 24 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 25 series series NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 40 26 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 1 Thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 4 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 5 series series NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 6 includes include VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 7 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 8 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 9 109 109 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 10 data data NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 11 points point NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 12 out out IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 13 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 14 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 15 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 16 127 127 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 17 records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 41 18 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 1 Also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 2 marked mark VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 3 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 5 figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 6 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 7 two two CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 8 horizontal horizontal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 9 lines line NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 10 indicating indicate VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 12 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 13 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 14 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 15 5 5 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 16 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 17 thresholds threshold NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 42 18 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 2 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 3 A A NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 4 below below RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 7 provide provide VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 8 basic basic JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 9 descriptive descriptive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 10 statistics statistic NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 11 concerning concern VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 13 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 14 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 15 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 16 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 17 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 18 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 19 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 20 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 21 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 22 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 23 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 24 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 25 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 26 as as RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 27 well well RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 28 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 29 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 30 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 31 ratio ratio NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 32 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 33 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 34 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 43 35 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 2 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 3 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 4 above above RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 7 present present VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 9 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 10 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 11 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 12 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 13 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 14 over over IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 15 these these DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 16 days day NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 44 17 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 2 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 3 super super RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 4 - - JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 5 imposed impose VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 6 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 8 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 9 chart chart NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 11 0.95 0.95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 13 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 14 95 95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 15 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 17 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 18 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 19 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 20 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 22 0.07981 0.07981 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 23 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 24 0.1001 0.1001 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 26 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 27 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 28 current current JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 29 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 31 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 33 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 34 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 35 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 36 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 37 resulted result VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 38 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 39 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 40 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 41 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 42 modeling modeling NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 43 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 44 developed develop VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 45 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 46 present present JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 47 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 48 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 49 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 50 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 51 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 52 Illustrations illustration NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 53 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 54 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 55 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 56 below below RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 57 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 45 58 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 1 As as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 2 can can MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 3 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 4 seen see VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 7 calculated calculate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 8 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 9 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 10 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 11 contains contain VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 13 CDC CDC NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 14 's 's POS cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 15 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 16 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 17 threshold threshold NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 19 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 20 could could MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 21 serve serve VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 22 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 23 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 24 early early JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 25 warning warning NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 26 flag flag NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 27 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 28 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 29 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 30 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 31 may may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 32 prompt prompt VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 33 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 34 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 35 initiate initiate VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 36 some some DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 37 mitigating mitigate VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 38 measures measure NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 40 such such JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 41 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 42 mandating mandate VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 43 masks mask NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 44 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 45 public public JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 47 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 48 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 49 effort effort NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 50 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 51 maintain maintain VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 52 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 53 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 54 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 55 positivity positivity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 56 below below IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 57 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 46 58 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 1 Having have VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 2 retrieved retrieve VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 4 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 5 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 6 described describe VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 7 above above RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 10 labeled label VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 11 them -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 12 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 13 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 14 i i PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 15 ≡COVID ≡COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 16 COUNT COUNT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 47 17 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 48 1 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 48 2 i i NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 1 ≡COVID ≡COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 2 TESTS test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 3 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 4 i i NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 5 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 6 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 8 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 9 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 49 10 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 2 m m LS cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 3 where where WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 4 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 5 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 6 109 109 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 7 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 9 total total JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 10 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 11 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 12 observations observation NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 13 included include VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 14 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 15 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 16 analysis analysis NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 50 17 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 1 Thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 4 denote denote VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 6 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 7 data data NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 8 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 9 Ordinarily ordinarily RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 11 when when WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 12 modeling model VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 14 count count NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 15 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 16 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 17 test test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 51 18 results result NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 52 1 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 53 1 i i PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 53 2 recorded record VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 53 3 out out IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 53 4 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 53 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 53 6 k k XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 1 i i PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 2 tests test VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 3 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 5 assuming assume VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 6 independence independence NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 8 risk risk NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 9 homogeneity homogeneity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 10 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 12 tested test VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 13 population population NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 14 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 15 no no DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 16 lagging lagging JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 17 information information NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 21 binomial binomial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 22 model model NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 23 would would MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 24 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 25 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 54 26 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 1 So so RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 2 that that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 3 conditional conditional JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 4 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 6 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 8 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 9 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 11 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 12 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 13 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 14 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 15 ∈ ∈ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 17 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 19 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 55 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 1 Accordingly accordingly RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 3 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 4 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 5 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 6 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 7 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 8 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 10 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 11 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 56 12 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 2 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 3 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 6 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 7 counts count NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 10 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 11 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 13 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 14 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 15 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 16 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 17 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 19 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 57 21 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 2 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 3 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 4 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 5 conditionally conditionally RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 6 independent independent JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 7 binomial binomial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 8 random random JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 9 variables variable NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 10 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 11 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 12 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 13 Pr(T Pr(T NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 14 est est NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 15 = = NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 16 + + CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 58 18 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 2 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 3 similar similar JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 4 fashion fashion NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 7 model model VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 9 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 10 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 11 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 12 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 13 performed perform VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 14 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 15 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 16 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 17 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 18 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 21 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 59 22 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 2 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 3 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 4 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 6 independent independent JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 60 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 61 1 Negative negative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 61 2 Binomial binomial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 61 3 random random JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 61 4 variables variable NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 61 5 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 1 That that RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 2 is is RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 4 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 5 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 7 fixed fix VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 62 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 1 integer integer NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 2 r r NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 3 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 4 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 6 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 7 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 8 ∈ ∈ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 10 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 12 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 15 As as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 17 can can MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 18 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 19 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 20 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 21 A A NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 23 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 24 observed observed JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 25 marginal marginal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 26 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 27 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 28 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 29 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 30 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 31 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 32 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 33 test test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 34 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 35 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 36 exhibiting exhibit VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 37 over over IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 38 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 39 dispersion dispersion NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 40 features feature NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 41 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 42 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 43 characteristic characteristic JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 44 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 45 mixed mixed JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 46 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 47 Poisson poisson NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 48 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 49 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 50 Negative negative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 51 Binomial Binomial NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 52 counts count NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 63 53 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 1 Thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 3 combining combine VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 5 1)- 1)- CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 7 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 11 obtain obtain VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 12 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 13 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 15 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 16 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 17 θ θ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 21 joint joint JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 22 probability probability NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 24 mass mass NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 26 function function NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 27 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 28 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 29 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 30 pairs pair NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 31 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 64 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 1 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 2 i i NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 4 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 5 i i NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 7 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 8 i i PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 9 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 10 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 12 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 13 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 65 14 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 2 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 5 i.e. i.e. FW cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 7 likelihood likelihood NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 8 function function NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 11 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 12 where where WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 14 ∝ ∝ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 15 indicates indicate VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 16 proportionality proportionality NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 17 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 18 terms term NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 20 up up IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 21 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 22 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 23 constant constant NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 24 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 25 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 26 where where WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 27 N n NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 28 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 29 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 30 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 31 j=1 j=1 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 32 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 33 j j NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 34 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 35 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 36 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 37 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 38 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 39 j=1 j=1 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 40 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 41 j j NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 42 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 43 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 44 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 45 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 46 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 47 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 48 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 49 performed perform VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 50 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 51 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 52 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 53 reported report VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 54 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 55 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 66 56 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 2 note note VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 3 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 4 passing pass VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 5 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 7 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 8 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 9 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 10 mentioned mention VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 11 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 13 Introduction introduction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 14 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 15 merely merely RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 16 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 17 ratio ratio NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 19 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 20 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 21 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 67 22 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 68 1 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 68 2 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 68 3 /N /n NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 68 4 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 68 5 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 2 standard standard JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 3 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 4 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 5 model model NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 6 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 8 case case NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 9 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 10 Binomial Binomial NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 11 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 12 Negative negative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 13 Binomial Binomial NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 14 counts count NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 16 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 17 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 19 1)-(2 1)-(2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 23 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 24 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 25 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 26 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 27 conjugate conjugate JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 28 Beta beta JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 29 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 30 Beta beta NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 31 joint joint JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 32 prior prior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 33 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 34 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 36 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 37 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 38 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 41 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 42 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 69 43 example example NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 70 1 Gelman Gelman NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 70 2 et et NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 70 3 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 71 1 al al NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 71 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 72 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 72 2 2014 2014 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 72 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 72 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 72 5 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 1 That that RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 2 is is RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 4 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 6 case case NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 9 likelihood likelihood NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 10 function function NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 11 f f NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 13 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 14 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 15 |p |p NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 16 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 17 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 19 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 20 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 22 3 3 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 24 above above RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 25 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 26 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 27 consider consider VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 28 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 29 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 30 model model NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 31 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 32 assumes assume VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 33 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 34 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 35 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 36 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 37 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 38 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 39 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 40 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 41 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 42 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 43 some some DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 44 a a NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 45 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 46 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 47 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 48 b b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 49 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 50 0 0 NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 51 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 52 where where WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 53 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 54 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 55 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 56 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 57 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 58 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 59 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 60 some some DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 61 fixed fix VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 62 integer integer NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 63 r r NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 64 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 65 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 66 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 67 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 68 some some DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 69 c c NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 70 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 71 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 72 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 73 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 74 d d NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 75 > > XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 76 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 73 77 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 1 Thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 4 joint joint JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 5 prior prior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 6 pd pd NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 7 f f NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 10 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 12 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 14 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 15 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 16 Accordingly accordingly RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 18 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 19 since since IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 21 joint joint JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 22 posterior posterior NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 23 pd pd NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 24 f f NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 25 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 27 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 28 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 29 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 74 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 2 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 3 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 4 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 5 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 7 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 8 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 9 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 11 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 13 immediately immediately RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 14 obtain obtain VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 15 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 17 3)-(6 3)-(6 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 75 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 2 due due IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 3 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 5 conjugacy conjugacy NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 76 7 that that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 2 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 3 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 4 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 5 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 7 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 9 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 10 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 11 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 12 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 13 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 15 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 17 marginal marginal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 19 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 20 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 21 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 22 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 23 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 24 denoted denote VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 25 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 26 π(p π(p NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 27 |X |x CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 28 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 29 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 30 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 31 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 33 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 34 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 35 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 36 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 37 Beta beta JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 38 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 39 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 40 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 42 marginal marginal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 44 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 45 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 46 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 47 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 48 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 49 denoted denote VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 50 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 51 π(θ π(θ CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 52 |N |n CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 53 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 55 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 56 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 57 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 58 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 59 Beta beta JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 60 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 77 61 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 4 follows follow VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 5 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 6 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 7 X x NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 8 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 9 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 10 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 11 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 13 where where WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 14 these these DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 15 four four CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 16 updated update VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 18 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 19 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 20 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 78 21 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 1 Hence hence RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 4 Bayes Bayes NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 5 estimates estimate NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 6 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 7 θ θ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 8 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 9 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 10 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 12 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 14 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 15 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 16 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 17 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 18 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 20 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 21 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 23 respective respective JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 24 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 25 means mean NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 79 26 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 80 1 p p NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 80 2 Remark remark NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 80 3 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 2 choice choice NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 3 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 5 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 7 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 8 using use VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 10 Negative negative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 11 Binomial Binomial NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 12 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 13 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 14 model model VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 15 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 16 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 17 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 18 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 19 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 81 20 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 1 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 2 i i NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 4 could could MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 5 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 6 seen see VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 7 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 8 specific specific JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 9 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 82 11 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 1 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 2 testing testing NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 3 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 5 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 6 might may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 7 reflect reflect VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 8 testing test VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 9 capacity capacity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 10 limitation limitation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 11 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 12 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 13 variability variability NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 14 unique unique JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 15 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 16 that that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 17 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 83 18 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 1 Other other JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 2 models model NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 3 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 4 account account VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 5 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 7 observed observed JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 8 overdispersion overdispersion NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 9 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 10 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 84 12 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 2 See see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 3 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 4 A A NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 6 could could MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 7 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 8 used use VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 9 instead instead RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 85 10 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 1 For for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 2 instance instance NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 4 one one PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 5 may may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 6 alternatively alternatively RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 7 consider consider VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 9 related relate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 10 mixed mixed JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 11 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 12 Poisson poisson JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 13 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 14 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 16 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 18 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 86 19 _SP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 1 Having have VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 2 observed observe VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 4 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 5 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 6 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 7 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 8 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 12 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 13 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 14 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 15 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 16 under under IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 17 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 18 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 19 model model NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 21 3)-(6 3)-(6 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 23 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 24 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 26 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 27 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 28 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 29 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 30 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 32 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 33 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 34 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 35 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 36 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 37 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 39 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 40 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 41 future future JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 42 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 44 observation observation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 45 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 46 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 47 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 48 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 49 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 50 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 51 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 52 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 53 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 54 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 55 out out IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 56 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 57 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 58 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 87 59 K k NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 88 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 88 2 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 89 1 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 2 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 3 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 4 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 7 beta beta JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 8 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 9 binomial binomial NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 10 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 12 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 13 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 14 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 15 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 16 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 18 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 21 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 90 22 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 91 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 92 1 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 93 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 93 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 2 denote denote VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 3 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 5 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 7 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 8 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 9 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 10 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 12 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 94 13 K k NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 95 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 95 2 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 1 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 2 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 4 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 5 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 6 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 7 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 8 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 9 b b NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 10 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 11 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 12 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 14 7 7 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 96 16 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 2 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 3 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 4 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 5 mean mean NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 6 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 7 variance variance NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 9 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 10 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 11 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 12 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 97 13 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 2 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 3 similar similar JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 4 manner manner NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 6 obtain obtain VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 8 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 9 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 10 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 11 under under IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 12 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 13 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 14 model model NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 15 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 16 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 18 X X NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 19 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 20 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 21 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 22 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 24 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 25 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 26 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 27 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 28 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 29 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 31 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 32 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 33 future future JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 34 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 36 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 37 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 98 38 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 1 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 2 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 3 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 5 Beta beta JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 6 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 7 Negative negative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 8 Binomial Binomial NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 9 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 99 10 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 2 fact fact NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 4 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 5 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 6 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 7 | | : cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 8 θ θ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 9 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 10 NegBinom(r NegBinom(r NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 11 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 12 θ θ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 16 have have VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 17 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 18 k k NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 19 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 20 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 21 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 23 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 24 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 25 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 26 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 27 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 28 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 29 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 100 30 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 2 denote denote VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 3 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 5 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 6 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 8 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 9 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 10 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 11 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 12 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 13 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 14 c c NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 15 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 16 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 17 d d NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 18 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 19 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 20 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 22 7 7 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 101 24 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 2 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 3 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 4 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 5 mean mean NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 6 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 7 variance variance NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 9 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 10 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 11 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 12 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 13 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 102 14 It -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 1 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 2 straightforward straightforward JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 3 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 4 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 5 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 7 joint joint JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 8 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 9 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 10 probability probability NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 12 mass mass NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 14 function function NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 15 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 17 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 18 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 20 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 21 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 23 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 24 can can MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 25 easily easily RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 26 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 27 obtained obtain VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 28 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 29 expressions expression NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 31 7 7 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 33 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 35 8) 8) NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 36 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 37 Clearly clearly RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 38 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 39 along along IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 40 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 41 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 42 value value NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 43 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 44 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 45 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 46 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 47 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 48 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 49 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 50 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 51 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 52 predicted predict VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 53 out out IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 54 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 55 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 56 predicted predict VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 57 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 58 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 59 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 60 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 61 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 62 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 63 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 64 one one PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 65 may may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 66 obtain obtain VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 67 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 68 ratio ratio NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 69 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 70 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 71 * * NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 72 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 103 73 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 104 1 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 2 /K /K . cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 3 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 5 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 7 rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 9 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 10 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 11 predicted predict VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 12 next next RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 14 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 15 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 16 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 105 17 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 1 While while IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 2 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 3 explicit explicit JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 4 expression expression NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 5 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 7 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 8 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 9 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 10 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 11 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 12 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 13 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 14 not not RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 15 readily readily RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 16 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 19 may may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 20 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 21 estimated estimate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 23 quite quite RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 24 accurately accurately RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 25 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 26 through through IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 27 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 28 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 29 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 30 simulations simulation NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 106 31 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 1 Towards towards IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 2 that that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 3 end end NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 6 denote denote VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 7 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 8 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 9 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 10 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 12 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 107 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 1 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 2 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 3 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 4 cd cd NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 5 f f NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 6 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 7 p p NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 8 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 10 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 12 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 13 D d NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 14 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 108 15 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 1 That that RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 2 is is RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 4 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 5 any any DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 6 t t NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 7 ∈ ∈ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 8 R r NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 10 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 11 recall recall VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 12 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 14 α α XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 15 th th XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 16 percentile percentile NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 18 α α NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 19 ∈ ∈ NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 21 0 0 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 23 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 26 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 27 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 28 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 29 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 30 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 31 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 32 defined define VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 33 as as RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 34 Thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 35 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 36 when when WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 37 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 38 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 39 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 40 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 41 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 42 [ [ -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 43 t t NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 44 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 45 1−α 1−α CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 46 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 47 t t NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 48 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 49 α α NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 50 ] ] -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 51 serves serve VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 52 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 53 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 54 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 55 − − CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 56 2α 2α CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 57 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 58 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 59 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 60 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 61 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 62 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 63 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 64 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 65 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 66 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 67 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 68 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 69 so so IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 70 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 71 As as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 72 was be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 73 mentioned mention VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 74 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 75 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 76 previous previous JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 77 section section NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 78 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 79 while while IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 80 explicit explicit JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 81 expression expression NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 82 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 83 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 84 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 85 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 86 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 87 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 88 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 89 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 90 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 91 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 92 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 93 cd cd NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 94 f f NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 95 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 96 p p NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 97 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 98 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 99 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 100 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 101 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 102 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 103 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 104 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 105 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 106 not not RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 107 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 108 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 109 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 110 may may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 111 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 112 estimated estimate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 113 via via IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 114 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 115 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 116 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 117 simulations simulation NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 118 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 119 exploit exploit VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 120 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 121 explicit explicit JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 122 expression expression NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 123 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 124 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 125 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 126 9 9 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 127 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 128 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 129 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 130 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 131 joint joint JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 132 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 133 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 134 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 135 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 136 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 137 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 138 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 139 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 140 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 141 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 142 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 109 143 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 1 Given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 2 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 3 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 5 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 6 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 7 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 8 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 10 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 11 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 13 b b NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 14 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 15 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 16 c c NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 110 17 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 111 1 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 111 2 d d NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 111 3 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 1 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 2 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 3 r r NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 4 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 5 above above RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 6 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 7 generate generate VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 8 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 9 random random JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 10 sample sample NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 11 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 12 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 13 large large JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 14 size size NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 15 B b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 17 B b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 18 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 19 5 5 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 20 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 21 000 000 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 22 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 23 say say VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 25 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 26 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 27 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 28 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 30 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 32 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 33 follows follow VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 34 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 35 1 1 LS cord-225183-6rusimb5 112 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 1 Given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 2 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 3 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 4 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 5 draw draw VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 6 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 7 * * NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 8 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 9 BetaNegBinom(r BetaNegBinom(r NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 11 c c NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 12 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 14 d d NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 15 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 113 17 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 1 2 2 LS cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 3 Given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 4 X x NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 5 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 6 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 7 N N NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 114 8 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 115 1 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 115 2 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 115 3 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 115 4 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 116 1 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 3 draw draw VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 4 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 5 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 6 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 7 BetaBinom(k BetaBinom(k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 8 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 10 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 11 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 13 b b NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 14 m m LS cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 16 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 17 obtain obtain VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 19 pair pair NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 21 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 22 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 23 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 24 k k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 25 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 27 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 28 3 3 LS cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 30 Calculate calculate VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 31 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 32 simulated simulate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 33 predicted predict VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 34 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 35 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 117 36 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 118 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 118 2 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 118 3 y y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 119 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 120 1 /k /k NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 121 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 121 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 122 1 B B NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 122 2 times time NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 1 so so IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 2 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 3 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 4 form form VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 5 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 6 * * SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 7 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 9 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 10 * * SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 11 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 13 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 14 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 123 15 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 2 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 3 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 4 B b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 5 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 6 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 7 random random JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 8 sample sample NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 9 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 10 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 11 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 12 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 14 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 124 16 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 1 Having have VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 2 obtained obtain VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 4 random random JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 5 sample sample NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 6 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 7 * * SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 8 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 10 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 11 * * SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 12 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 13 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 14 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 15 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 125 16 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 2 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 3 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 4 B b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 7 estimate estimate VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 8 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 9 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 10 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 12 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 126 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 127 1 by by IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 127 2 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 127 3 empirical empirical JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 127 4 ver ver NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 127 5 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 127 6 sionQ sionq JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 128 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 1 Accordingly accordingly RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 2 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 3 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 4 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 5 similarity similarity NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 6 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 8 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 12 estimate estimate VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 14 α α NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 15 st st NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 16 percentile percentile NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 17 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 18 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 19 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 20 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 22 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 129 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 130 1 bŷ bŷ NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 1 A a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 2 simple simple JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 3 R r NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 4 script script NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 6 see see VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 7 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 8 C C NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 10 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 11 utilizes utilize VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 13 built build VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 14 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 15 in in RP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 16 functions function NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 17 rbnbinom rbnbinom NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 21 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 23 BetaNegBinom BetaNegBinom NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 25 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 27 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 29 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 30 rbbinom rbbinom NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 34 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 35 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 36 BetaBinom BetaBinom NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 38 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 40 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 42 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 43 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 44 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 45 extraDistr extraDistr NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 46 package package NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 47 produces produce VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 48 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 49 simulated simulated JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 50 sample sample NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 51 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 52 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 53 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 54 respective respective JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 56 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 57 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 58 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 59 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 60 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 61 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 62 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 63 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 64 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 65 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 66 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 67 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 68 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 69 corresponding correspond VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 70 predicted predict VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 71 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 72 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 73 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 74 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 75 = = NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 76 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 77 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 131 78 /K /K . cord-225183-6rusimb5 132 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 132 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 2 continue continue VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 3 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 5 same same JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 6 prior prior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 7 parameterization parameterization NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 8 used use VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 9 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 10 Illustration Illustration NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 11 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 12 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 13 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 14 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 15 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 16 b b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 17 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 18 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 19 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 20 c c NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 21 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 22 d d NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 23 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 24 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 25 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 26 r r NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 27 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 28 3 3 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 133 29 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 1 Recall recall VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 2 that that IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 4 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 5 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 6 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 7 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 9 yields yield NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 10 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 11 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 12 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 13 109 109 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 15 N n NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 16 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 17 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 18 5.22946 5.22946 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 19 × × NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 20 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 21 5 5 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 22 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 23 X x NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 24 m m NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 25 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 26 4.6907 4.6907 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 27 × × NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 28 10 10 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 29 4 4 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 134 30 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 2 first first RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 3 simulated simulate VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 4 B b NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 5 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 6 5000 5000 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 7 sample sample NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 8 values value NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 9 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 11 respective respective JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 12 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 13 distributions distribution NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 14 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 16 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 17 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 19 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 20 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 22 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 23 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 24 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 25 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 26 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 27 used use VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 28 these these DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 29 simulated simulate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 30 values value NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 31 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 32 estimate estimate VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 33 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 34 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 35 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 36 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 37 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 38 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 39 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 40 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 41 which which WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 42 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 43 turn turn NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 44 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 45 was be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 46 used use VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 47 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 48 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 49 obtain obtain VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 50 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 51 95 95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 52 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 53 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 54 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 55 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 56 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 57 [ [ -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 58 0.07981 0.07981 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 59 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 60 0.1001 0.1001 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 61 ] ] -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 62 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 63 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 64 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 65 next next JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 66 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 67 day day NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 68 ' ' '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 69 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 70 's 's POS cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 71 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 72 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 73 was be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 74 displayed display VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 75 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 76 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 77 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 135 78 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 2 means mean NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 3 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 4 standard standard JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 5 deviations deviation NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 6 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 9 estimated estimated JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 11 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 12 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 13 distributions distribution NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 14 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 15 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 16 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 18 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 19 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 20 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 21 p p NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 22 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 23 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 24 along along IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 25 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 26 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 27 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 28 95 95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 29 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 30 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 31 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 32 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 33 presented present VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 34 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 35 Table Table NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 36 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 37 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 38 3 3 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 136 39 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 4 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 5 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 6 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 8 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 9 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 10 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 11 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 12 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 13 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 15 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 16 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 18 along along IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 19 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 21 marked marked JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 23 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 24 blue blue JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 137 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 1 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 2 95 95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 3 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 4 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 5 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 6 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 7 3 3 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 8 above above RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 9 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 10 displays display VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 12 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 13 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 14 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 15 histogram histogram NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 16 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 17 that that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 18 predictive predictive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 19 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 20 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 21 along along IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 22 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 23 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 24 nonparametric nonparametric JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 25 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 26 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 27 normal normal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 28 density density NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 30 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 31 red red JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 33 approximations approximation NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 138 34 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 1 Also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 2 marked mark VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 3 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 5 corresponding correspond VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 6 bound bind VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 7 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 9 95 95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 10 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 11 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 12 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 13 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 14 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 139 15 p p NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 140 1 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 140 2 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 2 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 3 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 4 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 5 marginal marginal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 7 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 9 distribution distribution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 10 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 11 K K NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 12 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 13 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 14 displayed display VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 15 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 16 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 17 4 4 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 18 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 19 that that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 20 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 21 Y Y NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 22 * * NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 23 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 24 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 25 5 5 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 141 26 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 2 conclude conclude VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 3 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 4 illustration illustration NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 5 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 6 Figure Figure NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 7 6 6 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 9 where where WRB cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 11 display display VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 12 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 13 posterior posterior JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 14 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 15 intervals interval NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 16 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 17 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 18 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 19 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 20 were be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 21 calculated calculate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 22 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 23 each each DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 24 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 25 day day NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 26 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 27 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 28 series series NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 142 29 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 1 That that DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 2 is is RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 3 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 4 based base VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 5 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 7 given give VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 8 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 9 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 11 n n NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 12 th th XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 13 day day NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 14 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 15 D D NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 16 n n NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 17 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 19 calculated calculate VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 21 95 95 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 22 % % NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 23 posterior posterior NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 24 predicted predict VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 25 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 26 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 27 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 28 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 29 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 30 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 32 n n NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 33 + + SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 34 1 1 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 36 th th XX cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 37 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 38 day day NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 40 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 41 " " `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 42 next next JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 43 " " '' cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 44 day day NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 46 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 47 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 48 each each DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 49 n n NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 50 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 51 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 52 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 53 3 3 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 54 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 55 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 56 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 143 57 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 1 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 2 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 4 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 5 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 6 = = SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 7 109 109 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 8 days day NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 9 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 10 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 11 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 12 data data NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 13 set set VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 144 14 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 1 As as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 2 can can MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 3 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 4 seen see VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 6 each each DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 9 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 10 calculated calculate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 11 PPT PPT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 13 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 14 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 15 Figure figure NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 16 2 2 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 18 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 19 fell fall VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 20 well well RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 21 within within IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 23 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 24 prediction prediction NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 25 interval interval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 27 marked mark VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 28 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 29 red red NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 30 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 31 Figure Figure NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 32 6 6 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 34 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 35 was be VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 36 calculated calculate VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 37 based base VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 38 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 39 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 40 previous previous JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 41 ' ' `` cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 42 days day NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 43 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 44 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 45 thus thus RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 46 providing provide VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 47 also also RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 48 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 49 partial partial JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 50 validation validation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 51 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 52 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 53 applicability applicability NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 54 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 55 this this DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 56 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 57 approach approach NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 58 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 59 with with IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 60 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 61 underlying underlie VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 62 assumptions assumption NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 63 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 64 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 65 these these DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 66 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 67 count count NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 68 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 69 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 145 70 _SP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 2 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 3 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 4 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 5 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 6 available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 7 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 8 retrieval retrieval NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 9 through through IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 11 ISDH ISDH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 12 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 13 hub[10 hub[10 NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 15 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 16 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 17 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 18 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 19 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 20 state state NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 21 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 23 file file NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 24 covid covid NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 25 report report NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 26 date.xlsx date.xlsx NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 146 27 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 2 includes include VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 4 daily daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 5 records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 7 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 8 columns column NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 10 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 147 11 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 148 1 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 148 2 DATE date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 148 3 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 1 Date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 2 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 3 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 4 event event NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 5 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 6 it -PRON- PRP cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 7 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 8 equal equal JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 9 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 11 investigation investigation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 12 starting start VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 13 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 14 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 15 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 16 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 17 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 19 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 20 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 21 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 22 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 23 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 24 ; ; : cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 25 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 26 coalesce coalesce NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 27 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 28 specimen specimen JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 29 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 30 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 31 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 32 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 33 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 34 testings testing NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 36 if if IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 37 specimen specimen NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 38 collected collect VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 39 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 40 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 41 unknown unknown JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 42 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 43 use use VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 44 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 45 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 47 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 48 respectively respectively RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 49 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 50 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 51 TEST test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 149 52 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 1 Total total JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 4 testings testing NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 6 i.e. i.e. FW cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 7 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 9 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 10 people people NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 11 tested test VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 12 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 14 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 150 15 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 151 1 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 151 2 residents resident NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 151 3 only only RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 151 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 152 1 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 153 1 DAILY DAILY NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 153 2 DELTA DELTA NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 153 3 TESTS test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 153 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 4 most most RBS cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 5 recent recent JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 7 i.e i.e DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 8 latest late JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 9 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 11 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 12 testings testing NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 13 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 14 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 15 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 16 into into IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 17 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 18 testing testing NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 19 pool pool NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 154 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 2 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 4 specimen specimen NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 5 collected collect VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 6 is be VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 7 typically typically RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 8 earlier early JJR cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 9 than than IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 10 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 11 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 12 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 155 13 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 156 1 DAILY daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 156 2 BASE BASE NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 156 3 TESTS test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 156 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 4 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 5 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 7 last last JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 8 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 157 9 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 1 Records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 2 might may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 3 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 4 removed remove VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 5 due due IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 6 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 7 information information NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 8 correctness correctness NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 158 9 • • NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 159 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 159 2 COUNT COUNT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 159 3 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 1 Total total JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 4 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 5 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 7 i.e. i.e. FW cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 8 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 9 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 10 patients patient NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 11 who who WP cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 12 started start VBD cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 13 investigation investigation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 14 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 15 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 16 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 17 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 19 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 20 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 160 21 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 161 1 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 162 1 DAILY daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 162 2 DELTA delta NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 162 3 CASES case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 162 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 4 most most JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 5 recent(i.e recent(i.e NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 6 latest late JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 7 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 9 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 10 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 11 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 12 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 13 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 14 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 15 into into IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 16 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 17 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 18 case case NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 19 pool pool NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 163 20 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 2 investigation investigation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 3 starting start VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 4 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 5 could could MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 6 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 7 earlier early JJR cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 8 than than IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 10 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 11 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 12 due due JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 13 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 14 necessary necessary JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 164 15 process process NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 165 1 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 166 1 DAILY daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 166 2 BASE BASE NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 166 3 CASES case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 166 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 4 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 5 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 6 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 8 last last JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 9 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 167 10 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 1 Records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 2 might may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 3 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 4 removed remove VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 5 due due IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 6 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 7 information information NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 8 correctness correctness NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 168 9 • • NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 169 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 169 2 DEATHS death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 1 Total total JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 2 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 3 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 4 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 5 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 6 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 7 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 170 8 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 171 1 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 172 1 DAILY daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 172 2 DELTA delta NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 172 3 DEATHS death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 4 most most RBS cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 5 recent recent JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 7 i.e i.e DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 8 latest late JJS cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 9 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 11 new new JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 12 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 13 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 14 that that WDT cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 15 are be VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 16 reported report VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 17 into into IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 19 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 20 case case NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 21 pool pool NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 173 22 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 2 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 4 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 5 could could MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 6 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 7 earlier early JJR cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 8 than than IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 10 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 11 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 12 due due JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 13 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 14 necessary necessary JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 15 process process NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 16 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 17 confirmation confirmation NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 174 18 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 175 1 DAILY daily JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 175 2 BASE BASE NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 175 3 DEATHS death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 175 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 2 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 3 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 4 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 5 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 6 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 7 last last JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 8 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 176 9 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 1 Records record NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 2 might may MD cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 3 be be VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 4 removed remove VBN cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 5 due due IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 6 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 7 information information NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 8 correctness correctness NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 177 9 • • NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 178 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 178 2 COUNT COUNT NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 179 1 CUMSUM CUMSUM NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 179 2 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 2 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 3 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 4 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 5 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 6 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 7 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 8 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 10 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 11 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 180 12 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 181 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 181 2 DEATHS death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 181 3 CUMSUM CUMSUM NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 181 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 2 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 3 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 4 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 5 deaths death NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 6 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 9 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 182 10 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 183 1 • • NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 184 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 184 2 TEST test NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 184 3 CUMSUM CUMSUM NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 184 4 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 1 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 2 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 3 number number NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 4 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 5 tests test NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 6 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 7 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 8 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 9 report report NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 10 date date NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 11 A a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 12 simple simple JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 13 R r NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 14 script script NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 15 to to TO cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 16 obtain obtain VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 17 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 18 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 19 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 20 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 21 sample sample NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 22 from from IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 23 Q Q NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 24 m m NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 26 · · NFP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 28 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 29 _SP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 30 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 31 Data Data NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 32 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 33 Chapman Chapman NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 34 & & CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 35 Hall Hall NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 36 / / SYM cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 37 CRC CRC NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 38 Texts Texts NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 39 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 40 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 41 Science Science NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 42 Estimating Estimating NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 43 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 44 Infection Infection NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 45 Fatality fatality NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 46 Rate rate NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 47 Among among IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 48 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 49 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 185 50 Cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 1 In in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 2 The the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 3 United United NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 4 States States NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 5 HEALTH HEALTH NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 6 AFFAIRS AFFAIRS NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 7 39 39 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 8 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 9 NO no NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 10 . . NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 11 7 7 CD cord-225183-6rusimb5 186 12 . . . cord-225183-6rusimb5 187 1 Project project NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 188 1 HOPEThe hopethe RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 1 People People NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 2 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 3 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 4 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 5 People People NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 6 Health Health NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 7 Foundation Foundation NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 8 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 10 Global Global NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 11 Cases Cases NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 12 COVID-19 covid-19 VBP cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 13 positive positive JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 14 cases case NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 15 , , , cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 16 evidence evidence NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 17 on on IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 18 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 19 time time NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 20 evolution evolution NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 21 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 22 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 24 or or CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 25 an an DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 26 indicator indicator NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 27 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 28 local local JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 29 testing testing NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 30 capabilities capability NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 189 31 ? ? . cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 1 A a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 2 case case NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 3 study study NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 4 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 5 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 6 United United NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 7 States States NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 8 Available Available NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 9 Modelling Modelling NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 10 death death NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 11 rates rate NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 12 due due JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 13 to to IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 14 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 15 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 16 A a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 17 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 18 approach approach NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 19 Available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 20 online online RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 21 at at IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 22 Brazilian Brazilian NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 23 Modeling Modeling NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 24 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 25 COVID-19(BRAM COVID-19(BRAM NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 26 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 27 COD COD NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-225183-6rusimb5 190 29 : : : cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 1 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 2 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 3 Monte Monte NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 4 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 5 approach approach NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 6 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 7 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 8 spread spread NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 9 in in IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 10 a a DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 11 limited limited JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 12 data datum NNS cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 13 set set NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 14 context context NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 15 Available available JJ cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 16 online online RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 17 at at IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 18 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 19 preprint preprint NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 191 20 doi doi NN cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 1 CDC CDC NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 2 Guidelines Guidelines NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 3 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 4 CDC CDC NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 5 Activities Activities NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 6 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 7 Initiatives Initiatives NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 8 Supporting support VBG cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 9 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 11 Response Response NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 12 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 13 the the DT cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 14 Presidents Presidents NNPS cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 15 Plan Plan NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 16 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 17 Opening Opening NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 192 18 America America NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 1 Up up RP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 2 Again again RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 3 -Centers -center VBZ cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 4 for for IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 5 Disease Disease NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 6 Control Control NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 7 and and CC cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 8 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 9 Available Available NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 10 online online RB cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 11 as as IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 12 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 14 Data Data NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 15 Report Report NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 16 - - HYPH cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 17 Indiana Indiana NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 18 State State NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 19 Department Department NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 20 of of IN cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 21 Health Health NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 22 Available Available NNP cord-225183-6rusimb5 193 23 online online RB