id sid tid token lemma pos cord-284945-837qlk8y 1 1 key key JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 1 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 2 cord-284945 cord-284945 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 3 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 4 837qlk8y 837qlk8y CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 5 authors author NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 7 Rahmandad Rahmandad NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 9 H. H. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 10 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 11 Lim Lim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 13 T. T. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 14 Y. Y. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 15 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 16 Sterman Sterman NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 18 J. J. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 19 title title NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 20 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 21 Estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 23 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 24 spread spread NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 26 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 2 27 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 1 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 2 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 3 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 4 06 06 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 5 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 6 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 7 journal journal NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 3 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 4 1 nan nan NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 4 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 4 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 5 1 10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 6 1 sha sha NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 6 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 6 3 cbec3d5de6e9bf33d2e8474943274b819980f8ee cbec3d5de6e9bf33d2e8474943274b819980f8ee NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 6 4 doc_id doc_id CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 6 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 7 1 284945 284945 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 7 2 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 7 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 7 4 837qlk8y 837qlk8y . cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 1 Limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 2 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 3 inconsistent inconsistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 4 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 6 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 8 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 9 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 11 health health NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 12 care care NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 13 resources resource NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 15 social social JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 16 distancing distancing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 19 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 20 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 21 caused cause VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 22 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 23 variations variation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 26 extent extent NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 28 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 30 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 31 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 32 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 33 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 34 nations nation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 35 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 36 complicating complicate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 37 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 38 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 39 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 40 prevalence prevalence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 42 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 43 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 44 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 45 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 47 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 50 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 51 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 52 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 53 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 54 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 55 care care VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 56 providers provider NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 57 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 58 policymakers policymaker NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 8 59 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 1 Using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 2 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 3 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 4 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 5 84 84 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 6 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 7 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 8 reliable reliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 9 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 10 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 12 spanning span VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 13 4.75 4.75 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 14 billion billion CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 15 people people NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 18 develop develop VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 19 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 20 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 21 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 22 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 23 integrating integrate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 24 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 25 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 26 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 27 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 28 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 30 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 31 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 33 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 34 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 35 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 36 estimate estimate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 37 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 38 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 39 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 40 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 41 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 42 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 43 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 44 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 45 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 46 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 47 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 48 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 49 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 50 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 51 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 52 risk risk VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 53 condition condition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 54 prevalence prevalence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 55 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 56 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 57 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 58 nations nation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 59 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 60 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 61 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 9 62 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 2 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 3 nations nation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 5 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 6 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 7 averages average VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 8 0.68 0.68 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 9 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 11 0.64%-0.7 0.64%-0.7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 12 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 10 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 1 Cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 2 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 3 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 4 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 5 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 6 18 18 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 8 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 9 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 12 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 13 11.8 11.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 15 1.48 1.48 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 16 times time NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 17 official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 18 reports report NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 20 respectively respectively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 22 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 23 88.5 88.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 25 85 85 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 26 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 27 95.3 95.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 29 million million CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 30 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 31 600 600 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 33 586 586 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 34 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 35 622 622 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 37 thousand thousand CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 11 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 1 Prevalence prevalence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 2 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 3 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 4 vary vary VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 5 substantially substantially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 7 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 9 Ecuador Ecuador NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 11 18 18 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 12 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 13 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 14 0.61 0.61 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 15 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 18 Chile Chile NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 20 15.5 15.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 21 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 22 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 23 0.57 0.57 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 24 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 27 Mexico Mexico NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 29 8.8 8.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 30 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 31 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 32 0.69 0.69 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 33 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 35 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 36 Iran Iran NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 38 7.9 7.9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 39 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 40 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 41 0.44 0.44 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 42 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 44 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 45 USA USA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 47 5.3 5.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 48 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 49 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 50 0.99 0.99 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 51 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 53 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 54 UK UK NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 55 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 56 5.2 5.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 57 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 58 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 59 1.59 1.59 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 60 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 61 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 62 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 63 Iceland Iceland NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 64 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 65 1.65 1.65 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 66 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 67 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 68 0.56 0.56 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 69 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 70 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 71 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 72 New New NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 73 Zealand Zealand NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 74 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 75 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 76 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 77 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 78 0.64 0.64 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 79 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 80 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 81 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 82 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 83 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 84 nations nation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 85 remain remain VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 86 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 87 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 88 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 89 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 90 needed need VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 91 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 92 herd herd NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 93 immunity immunity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 12 94 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 2 alerting alert VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 4 public public NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 5 earlier early RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 7 reducing reduce VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 8 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 10 extensive extensive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 11 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 12 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 15 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 16 declared declare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 17 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 18 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 19 averted avert VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 20 35.3 35.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 22 32.7 32.7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 23 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 24 42.7 42.7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 26 million million CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 27 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 29 197 197 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 31 171 171 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 32 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 33 232 232 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 35 thousand thousand CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 36 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 13 37 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 3 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 4 outcomes outcome NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 5 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 6 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 7 dependent dependent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 8 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 9 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 11 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 12 contingent contingent NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 15 willingness willingness NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 17 communities community NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 19 governments government NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 20 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 21 reduce reduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 22 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 14 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 1 Absent absent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 2 breakthroughs breakthrough NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 4 treatment treatment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 5 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 6 vaccination vaccination NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 8 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 9 mildly mildly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 10 improved improve VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 11 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 13 project project VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 14 249 249 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 16 186 186 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 17 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 18 586 586 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 20 million million CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 21 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 23 1.75 1.75 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 25 1.40 1.40 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 26 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 27 3.67 3.67 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 29 million million CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 30 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 31 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 32 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 33 84 84 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 34 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 35 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 36 Spring Spring NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 37 2021 2021 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 15 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 16 1 explanatory explanatory JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 16 2 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 16 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 1 A a LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 3 Differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 5 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 6 density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 8 lifestyle lifestyle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 11 interaction interaction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 12 patterns pattern NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 13 create create VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 14 variations variation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 15 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 16 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 17 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 17 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 18 1 B b NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 18 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 1 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 2 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 4 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 5 change change NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 7 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 8 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 9 alter alter VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 10 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 11 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 12 endogenously endogenously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 19 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 20 1 C C NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 20 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 1 Testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 3 prioritized prioritize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 4 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 6 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 8 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 9 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 11 so so IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 12 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 13 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 14 depend depend VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 15 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 16 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 17 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 18 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 20 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 21 prevalence prevalence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 21 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 22 1 D D NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 22 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 1 Limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 2 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 3 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 5 allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 6 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 8 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 10 influencing influence VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 11 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 12 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 23 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 1 E e LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 3 Weather Weather NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 4 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 5 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 7 role role NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 9 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 11 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 13 while while IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 14 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 16 socio socio JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 17 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 18 economic economic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 19 status status NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 22 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 23 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 24 existing existing JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 25 conditions condition NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 26 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 27 severity severity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 29 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 30 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 31 9 9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 33 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 34 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 35 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 36 poor poor JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 37 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 38 minorities minority NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 39 suffering suffer VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 40 disproportionately disproportionately RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 42 10 10 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 24 44 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 1 Prior prior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 2 research research NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 3 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 4 addressed address VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 5 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 6 parts part NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 8 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 9 puzzle puzzle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 11 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 12 estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 14 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 15 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 16 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 18 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 21 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 22 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 23 controlled control VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 24 settings setting NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 26 11 11 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 28 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 29 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 30 statistical statistical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 31 extrapolation extrapolation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 33 12 12 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 35 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 36 assessing assess VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 37 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 38 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 39 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 40 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 41 smaller small JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 42 populations population NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 43 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 44 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 45 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 46 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 47 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 48 13 13 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 50 14 14 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 52 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 53 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 54 estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 55 prevalence prevalence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 56 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 57 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 58 antibody antibody NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 59 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 60 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 61 highly highly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 62 affected affect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 63 cities city NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 64 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 65 regions region NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 66 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 67 15 15 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 68 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 25 69 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 1 Yet yet CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 3 lack lack VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 5 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 6 view view NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 9 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 10 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 11 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 12 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 13 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 14 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 15 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 16 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 17 focused focused JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 18 findings finding NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 20 simultaneously simultaneously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 21 explains explain VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 23 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 24 variance variance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 25 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 26 official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 27 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 29 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 30 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 31 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 32 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 26 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 2 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 3 paper paper NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 5 build build VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 7 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 8 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 9 multi multi JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 10 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 11 country country JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 12 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 15 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 16 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 17 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 18 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 19 scale scale NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 27 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 3 captures capture VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 4 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 5 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 6 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 8 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 10 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 11 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 12 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 13 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 15 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 17 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 18 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 20 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 21 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 22 vary vary VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 23 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 24 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 25 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 26 risk risk VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 27 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 29 weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 30 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 31 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 32 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 33 condition condition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 34 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 35 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 36 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 37 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 38 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 39 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 40 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 41 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 42 depend depend VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 43 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 44 demographics demographic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 45 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 46 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 28 47 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 1 Estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 2 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 3 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 4 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 5 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 7 every every DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 8 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 9 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 10 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 11 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 12 1000 1000 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 13 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 15 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 16 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 17 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 18 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 19 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 21 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 22 infer infer VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 23 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 26 key key JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 27 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 29 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 30 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 31 globally globally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 33 inform inform VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 34 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 35 alternative alternative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 36 control control NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 37 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 38 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 39 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 40 played play VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 41 out out RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 42 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 43 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 44 globe globe NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 29 45 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 2 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 4 multi multi JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 5 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 6 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 7 modified modify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 8 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 9 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 10 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 11 simultaneously simultaneously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 12 estimate estimate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 14 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 16 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 18 84 84 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 19 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 30 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 3 tracks track VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 4 community community NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 5 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 7 excluding exclude VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 9 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 10 travel travel NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 11 network network NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 13 instead instead RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 14 separately separately RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 15 estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 17 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 19 introduction introduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 21 patient patient JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 22 zero zero CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 24 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 25 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 31 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 1 Within within IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 2 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 3 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 6 core core NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 9 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 10 tracks track VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 12 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 13 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 14 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 16 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 17 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 18 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 20 infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 21 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 22 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 23 testing testing JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 25 infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 26 post post NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 27 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 28 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 30 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 31 recovered recover VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 32 states state NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 32 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 1 Basic basic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 2 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 3 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 4 reflect reflect VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 6 classical classical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 7 SEIR seir NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 8 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 10 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 12 baseline baseline JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 13 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 14 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 16 incubation incubation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 17 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 20 duration duration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 22 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 33 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 1 Building build VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 2 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 4 basic basic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 5 structure structure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 7 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 8 explicitly explicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 9 represents represent VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 11 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 13 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 14 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 16 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 17 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 18 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 19 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 21 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 23 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 24 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 25 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 28 allocation allocation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 30 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 31 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 32 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 33 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 34 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 35 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 36 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 37 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 38 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 39 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 40 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 41 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 42 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 43 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 44 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 45 system system NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 46 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 47 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 48 both both CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 49 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 50 concomitant concomitant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 51 effects effect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 52 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 53 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 54 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 55 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 34 56 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 2 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 3 endogenously endogenously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 4 generates generate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 5 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 6 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 7 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 8 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 10 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 11 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 12 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 13 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 15 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 16 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 18 government government NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 19 intervention intervention NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 35 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 1 infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 2 people people NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 3 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 4 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 5 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 6 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 7 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 8 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 10 e.g. e.g. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 11 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 12 workers worker NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 14 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 15 similar similar JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 16 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 17 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 18 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 19 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 20 illnesses illness NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 36 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 2 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 4 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 6 prior prior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 7 research research NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 9 16 16 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 12 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 13 infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 14 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 15 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 16 potentially potentially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 17 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 18 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 19 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 20 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 21 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 22 after after IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 24 onset onset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 26 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 37 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 1 On on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 2 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 3 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 4 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 6 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 7 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 8 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 9 severe severe JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 10 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 11 get get VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 12 priority priority NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 14 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 38 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 1 Following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 3 17 17 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 6 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 7 prioritization prioritization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 8 exerts exert VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 9 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 10 selection selection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 11 effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 12 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 13 results result VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 15 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 16 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 17 severity severity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 19 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 22 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 23 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 24 untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 25 infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 26 populations population NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 39 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 2 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 3 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 5 30 30 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 6 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 7 false false JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 8 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 9 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 11 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 12 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 13 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 14 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 15 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 17 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 19 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 40 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 2 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 3 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 4 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 6 reduced reduce VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 7 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 8 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 10 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 11 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 13 changing change VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 15 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 16 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 17 endogenously endogenously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 41 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 1 Thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 3 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 4 tracks track VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 5 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 6 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 7 generating generate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 9 observable observable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 10 measures measure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 12 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 13 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 14 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 15 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 16 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 17 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 18 combines combine VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 20 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 21 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 22 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 23 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 24 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 25 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 26 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 27 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 28 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 29 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 30 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 31 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 32 mortem mortem JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 33 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 34 confirmations confirmation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 35 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 36 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 37 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 38 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 39 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 40 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 41 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 42 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 43 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 44 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 42 45 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 1 Unobserved unobserved JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 4 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 5 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 6 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 8 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 9 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 11 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 12 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 13 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 14 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 15 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 16 fitting fit VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 18 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 19 against against IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 21 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 22 observables observable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 43 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 4 effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 5 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 6 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 8 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 9 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 10 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 12 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 14 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 15 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 16 beds bed NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 17 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 19 modified modify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 20 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 21 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 22 density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 44 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 2 modification modification NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 3 approximates approximate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 5 effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 7 geographic geographic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 8 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 10 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 12 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 13 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 14 -in -in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 15 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 17 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 18 densely densely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 19 populated populated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 20 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 22 geographic geographic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 23 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 26 progression progression NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 28 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 29 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 30 means mean VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 31 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 32 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 33 areas area NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 35 e.g. e.g. DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 36 New New NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 37 York York NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 38 city city NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 40 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 41 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 42 overwhelmed overwhelmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 43 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 44 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 45 even even RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 46 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 47 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 48 parts part NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 49 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 50 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 51 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 52 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 53 unused unused JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 54 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 55 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 45 56 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 2 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 3 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 5 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 6 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 7 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 8 allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 9 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 10 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 11 severe severe JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 12 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 13 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 15 both both PDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 16 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 17 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 19 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 20 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 21 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 24 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 25 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 26 non non JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 27 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 28 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 29 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 46 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 1 Hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 2 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 3 reduce reduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 5 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 6 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 8 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 9 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 11 while while IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 12 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 13 determinants determinant NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 15 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 16 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 17 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 19 severity severity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 21 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 24 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 25 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 26 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 28 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 30 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 32 9 9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 47 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 1 Each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 2 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 3 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 4 exhibits exhibit VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 6 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 9 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 10 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 12 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 48 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 2 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 4 endogenously endogenously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 5 driven drive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 8 weighted weighted JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 9 combination combination NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 11 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 13 actual actual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 14 hazard hazard NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 16 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 49 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 1 Perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 2 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 3 drives drive VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 4 reduction reduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 6 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 7 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 9 hence hence RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 10 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 11 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 12 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 13 non non JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 14 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 15 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 16 interventions intervention NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 17 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 18 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 19 social social JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 20 distancing distancing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 21 measures measure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 50 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 1 Specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 2 government government NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 3 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 4 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 5 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 6 explicitly explicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 7 represented represent VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 9 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 10 treated treat VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 11 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 12 part part NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 14 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 15 endogenous endogenous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 16 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 17 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 51 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 1 Different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 2 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 3 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 4 vary vary VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 6 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 7 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 8 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 10 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 11 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 13 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 14 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 15 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 17 magnitude magnitude NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 19 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 20 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 21 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 22 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 24 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 25 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 52 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 1 Overall overall RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 2 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 3 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 5 represented represent VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 8 system system NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 10 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 11 differential differential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 12 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 13 tracking track VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 14 seven seven CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 15 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 16 stocks stock NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 18 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 20 Pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 21 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 22 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 23 Infected Infected NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 25 Infected Infected NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 26 Pre pre NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 27 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 28 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 30 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 31 four four CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 32 groups group NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 33 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 34 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 35 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 36 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 37 testing testing JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 38 -positively -positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 39 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 40 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 41 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 42 × × NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 43 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 44 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 45 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 47 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 48 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 49 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 50 variable variable NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 51 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 52 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 53 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 53 54 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 3 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 4 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 5 multiple multiple JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 6 additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 7 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 8 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 10 measurement measurement NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 12 accounting accounting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 14 e.g. e.g. JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 15 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 17 recoveries recovery NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 54 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 1 Model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 4 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 5 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 6 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 7 prior prior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 8 literature literature NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 10 formal formal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 11 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 55 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 1 Main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 3 adopted adopt VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 4 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 6 literature literature NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 7 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 8 incubation incubation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 9 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 11 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 12 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 14 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 16 16 16 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 20 onset onset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 21 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 22 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 23 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 24 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 25 delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 27 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 28 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 30 16 16 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 33 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 34 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 36 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 37 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 38 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 39 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 41 70 70 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 42 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 44 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 45 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 46 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 47 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 50 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 51 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 52 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 53 detection detection JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 54 illness illness NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 55 duration duration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 56 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 57 10 10 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 58 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 59 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 60 8) 8) NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 61 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 56 62 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 4 remaining remain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 6 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 8 maximum maximum JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 9 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 10 approach approach NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 57 11 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 1 Using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 2 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 3 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 4 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 5 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 7 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 8 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 10 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 11 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 12 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 14 e.g. e.g. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 15 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 17 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 18 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 20 comorbidities comorbiditie NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 22 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 23 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 27 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 28 endogenously endogenously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 29 simulates simulate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 30 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 31 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 32 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 33 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 34 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 35 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 36 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 37 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 38 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 39 matches match VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 40 them -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 41 against against IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 42 observed observed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 43 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 44 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 45 maximizing maximize VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 46 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 47 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 48 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 49 observing observe VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 50 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 51 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 52 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 53 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 54 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 55 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 58 56 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 2 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 4 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 5 binomial binomial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 6 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 7 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 9 accommodate accommodate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 10 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 11 dispersion dispersion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 12 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 13 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 15 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 16 flows flow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 17 compared compare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 18 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 19 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 20 common common JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 21 Gaussian gaussian JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 22 specifications specification NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 59 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 1 Where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 2 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 3 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 4 mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 6 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 7 2.2 2.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 8 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 10 9.4 9.4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 11 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 13 median median NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 14 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 17 Med Med NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 20 8.4 8.4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 60 21 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 2 Med Med NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 4 10.2 10.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 5 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 8 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 9 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 11 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 13 respectively respectively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 61 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 1 R r NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 3 square square JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 4 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 5 exceed exceed VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 6 0.9 0.9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 8 56 56 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 9 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 11 336 336 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 12 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 13 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 14 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 15 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 17 incidence incidence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 18 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 19 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 62 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 2 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 4 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 5 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 6 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 7 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 8 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 9 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 11 where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 12 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 14 see see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 15 appendix appendix NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 16 S4 S4 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 63 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 1 Main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 2 findings finding NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 3 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 4 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 9 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 10 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 12 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 13 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 14 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 15 trajectories trajectory NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 17 key key JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 18 measures measure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 64 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 2 estimated estimated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 5 report report VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 9 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 11 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 12 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 13 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 14 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 17 Mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 19 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 20 b b LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 23 standard standard JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 24 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 26 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 27 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 29 Std Std NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 32 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 33 quantifies quantify VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 34 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 36 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 37 underlying underlying JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 38 concept concept NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 39 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 40 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 41 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 43 c c LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 65 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 1 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 2 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 4 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 5 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 6 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 7 interquartile interquartile JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 8 ranges range NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 10 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 13 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 14 captures capture VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 16 inherent inherent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 17 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 19 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 20 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 21 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 22 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 23 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 66 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 3 brings bring VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 4 together together RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 5 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 7 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 9 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 10 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 12 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 14 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 15 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 17 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 20 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 21 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 22 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 23 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 24 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 26 globe globe NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 67 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 1 Here here RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 3 focus focus VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 4 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 5 three three CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 6 main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 7 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 68 8 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 1 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 4 magnitude magnitude NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 7 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 8 widely widely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 9 under under RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 10 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 11 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 12 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 13 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 14 variation variation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 15 globally globally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 69 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 4 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 5 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 6 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 7 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 8 55 55 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 70 9 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 2 Mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 3 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 4 Std std NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 6 0.6 0.6 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 7 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 8 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 9 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 11 3.7 3.7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 12 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 71 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 1 Combined combine VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 2 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 4 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 6 70 70 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 7 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 9 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 11 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 14 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 15 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 18 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 20 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 21 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 22 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 23 potentially potentially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 24 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 25 identified identify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 26 without without IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 27 mass mass NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 28 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 29 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 30 limited limit VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 31 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 32 32 32 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 33 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 72 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 1 Most Most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 2 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 3 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 5 reach reach VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 6 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 7 upper upper JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 8 bound bind VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 10 however however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 13 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 14 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 16 binding bind VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 17 constraint constraint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 73 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 2 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 3 -A -A : cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 4 reports report VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 6 ratio ratio NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 8 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 9 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 10 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 11 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 13 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 15 ranging range VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 16 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 17 2.4 2.4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 19 157 157 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 20 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 21 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 23 0.65 0.65 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 24 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 25 27 27 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 26 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 27 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 74 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 3 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 5 84 84 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 6 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 8 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 9 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 11 4.675 4.675 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 12 billion billion CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 16 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 17 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 18 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 19 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 20 88.5 88.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 22 85 85 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 23 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 24 95.3 95.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 26 95 95 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 27 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 28 Credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 29 Interval interval NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 31 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 75 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 76 1 million million CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 76 2 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 76 3 600 600 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 2 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 4 586 586 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 5 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 6 622 622 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 77 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 1 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 2 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 3 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 4 18 18 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 5 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 7 11.8 11.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 9 1.48 1.48 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 10 times time NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 11 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 12 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 13 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 14 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 15 respectively respectively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 78 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 1 Under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 3 counting counting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 4 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 5 been be VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 6 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 7 earlier early RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 79 11 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 2 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 4 USA USA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 5 faced face VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 6 peak peak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 7 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 8 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 11 395 395 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 12 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 13 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 14 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 16 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 17 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 18 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 19 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 20 less less JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 21 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 22 10 10 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 23 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 25 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 26 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 27 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 80 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 2 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 3 affected affected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 4 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 6 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 8 percent percent NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 9 infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 12 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 13 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 14 Ecuador Ecuador NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 16 18 18 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 17 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 20 Peru Peru NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 22 16.6 16.6 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 23 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 26 Chile Chile NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 28 15.5 15.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 29 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 32 Mexico Mexico NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 34 8.8 8.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 35 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 37 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 38 Iran Iran NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 40 7.9 7.9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 41 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 43 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 44 Qatar Qatar NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 45 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 46 7.3 7.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 47 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 50 Spain Spain NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 51 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 52 7.1 7.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 53 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 55 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 56 USA USA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 57 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 58 5.3 5.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 59 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 60 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 61 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 62 UK UK NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 63 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 64 5.2 5.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 65 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 66 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 67 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 68 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 69 Netherlands Netherlands NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 70 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 71 4.8 4.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 72 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 81 73 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 82 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 82 2 See see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 82 3 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 82 4 1-B 1-b CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 82 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 82 6 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 1 Despite despite IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 3 order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 6 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 7 magnitude magnitude NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 8 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 10 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 12 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 14 however however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 16 herd herd NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 17 immunity immunity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 18 due due IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 19 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 20 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 21 remains remain VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 22 far far RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 23 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 24 reach reach NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 26 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 27 2-B 2-b CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 83 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 84 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 84 2 closest close JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 84 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 84 4 A A NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 84 5 B b NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 84 6 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 85 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 86 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 86 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 86 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 86 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 86 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 86 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 87 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 88 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 89 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 90 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 90 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 90 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 3 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 4 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 5 come come VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 6 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 7 herd herd VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 8 immunity immunity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 9 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 10 Chile Chile NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 12 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 13 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 14 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 15 peak peak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 16 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 17 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 18 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 91 19 194 194 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 2 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 4 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 5 away away RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 7 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 9 80 80 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 10 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 13 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 14 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 92 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 1 Second second RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 4 quantify quantify VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 5 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 6 significant significant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 7 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 10 notable notable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 11 consistency consistency NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 13 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 14 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 15 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 16 terms term NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 18 basic basic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 93 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 3 initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 4 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 5 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 6 RE RE NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 7 ranges range NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 8 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 9 1.24 1.24 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 11 Indonesia Indonesia NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 14 10.28 10.28 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 16 Iran Iran NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 19 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 21 median median NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 23 4.5 4.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 25 Iceland Iceland NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 94 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 2 RE RE NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 3 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 4 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 5 significant significant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 6 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 95 7 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 1 See see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 2 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 3 S6 S6 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 5 details detail NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 96 7 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 1 Even even RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 2 absent absent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 3 endogenous endogenous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 4 reductions reduction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 6 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 7 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 9 realized realize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 10 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 12 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 13 initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 14 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 15 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 16 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 17 higher high JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 18 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 19 longer long JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 20 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 21 term term NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 22 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 24 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 25 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 26 because because IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 28 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 29 exposures exposure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 30 happening happen VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 31 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 32 denser dense JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 33 social social JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 34 networks network NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 97 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 1 Cross cross NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 2 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 3 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 4 variations variation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 5 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 6 reflect reflect VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 7 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 9 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 10 density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 12 cultural cultural JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 13 practices practice NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 15 hygiene hygiene NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 17 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 18 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 19 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 21 timing timing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 23 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 25 thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 26 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 27 preparedness preparedness NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 98 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 2 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 3 support support NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 6 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 8 weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 9 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 11 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 13 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 15 multiplier multiplier NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 17 RW RW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 19 developed develop VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 20 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 21 Xu Xu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 23 colleagues colleague NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 25 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 27 explaining explain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 28 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 29 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 30 closely closely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 32 RW RW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 33 0.76 0.76 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 99 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 4 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 5 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 6 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 7 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 9 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 12 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 13 been be VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 14 0.68 0.68 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 15 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 17 CI ci NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 18 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 19 0.64%-0.70 0.64%-0.70 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 20 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 23 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 24 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 25 wide wide JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 26 range range NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 28 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 29 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 30 -C -C NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 32 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 33 0.14 0.14 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 34 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 36 CI ci NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 37 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 38 0.12 0.12 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 39 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 40 0.16 0.16 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 41 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 42 Qatar Qatar NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 44 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 45 2.08 2.08 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 46 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 47 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 48 CI ci NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 49 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 50 1.73 1.73 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 51 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 52 2.28 2.28 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 53 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 54 Italy Italy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 100 56 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 2 variations variation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 4 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 5 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 6 primarily primarily RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 7 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 9 demographics demographic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 10 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 11 elderly elderly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 12 having have VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 13 much much RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 14 higher high JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 15 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 17 9 9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 101 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 2 availability availability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 3 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 4 treatment treatment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 5 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 6 provide provide VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 8 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 9 mechanism mechanism NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 10 affecting affect VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 11 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 12 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 102 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 2 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 3 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 4 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 5 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 6 bring bring VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 7 down down RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 8 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 10 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 12 39.5 39.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 103 13 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 2 Std Std NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 4 17.8 17.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 5 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 6 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 7 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 9 7.9 7.9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 10 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 13 baseline baseline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 104 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 3 explains explain VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 4 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 5 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 7 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 8 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 9 minimum minimum JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 10 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 11 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 12 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 13 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 15 basic basic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 16 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 105 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 4 quality quality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 6 fit fit JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 7 deteriorates deteriorate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 9 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 10 handful handful NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 12 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 106 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 2 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 5 ratio ratio NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 7 simulated simulate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 9 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 10 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 11 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 12 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 13 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 14 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 15 handful handful NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 17 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 18 signals signal VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 19 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 21 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 22 expected expect VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 23 fewer few JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 24 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 25 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 26 observed observe VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 107 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 1 Notably notably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 4 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 6 hard hard JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 8 reconcile reconcile VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 10 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 11 only only RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 13 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 14 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 15 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 18 low low JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 19 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 20 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 22 Qatar Qatar NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 24 Singapore Singapore NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 27 Thailand Thailand NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 28 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 29 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 30 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 31 statistics statistic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 32 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 33 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 34 high high JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 35 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 36 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 37 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 38 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 39 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 40 France France NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 108 41 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 1 Third third RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 3 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 4 regulates regulate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 5 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 6 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 7 though though IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 8 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 9 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 10 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 109 11 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 2 providing provide VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 3 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 4 warning warning NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 6 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 7 sets set NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 9 motion motion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 11 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 13 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 14 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 15 essential essential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 16 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 17 reducing reduce VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 18 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 19 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 21 controlling control VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 110 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 2 exponential exponential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 3 nature nature NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 5 contagion contagion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 6 amplifies amplify VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 7 small small JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 8 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 9 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 11 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 12 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 14 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 15 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 16 ' ' POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 17 difference difference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 19 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 20 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 21 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 22 lead lead VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 23 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 24 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 25 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 26 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 27 peak peak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 28 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 29 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 30 final final JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 31 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 32 size size NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 111 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 1 Behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 2 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 3 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 4 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 6 changes change NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 8 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 9 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 10 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 11 adopted adopt VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 12 rapidly rapidly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 14 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 15 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 16 reducing reduce VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 17 effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 18 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 21 thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 22 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 24 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 25 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 26 13.5 13.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 28 std std NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 29 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 30 7.1 7.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 31 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 32 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 33 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 34 3.8 3.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 36 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 112 37 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 1 Those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 2 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 4 relaxed relaxed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 5 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 6 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 7 attenuate attenuate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 9 though though IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 10 down down RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 11 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 12 regulating regulate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 13 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 14 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 15 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 16 slower slow JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 18 mean mean VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 19 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 20 70.0 70.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 21 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 22 std std NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 23 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 24 31.2 31.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 25 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 26 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 27 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 28 49.2 49.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 29 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 113 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 1 Given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 2 limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 3 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 4 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 5 rebounds rebound NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 7 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 9 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 11 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 12 quickly quickly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 13 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 14 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 15 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 16 downgraded downgrade VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 17 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 18 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 19 major major JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 20 source source NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 22 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 23 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 24 projecting project VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 26 future future NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 28 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 29 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 114 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 2 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 3 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 4 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 5 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 6 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 8 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 9 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 10 reduce reduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 11 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 12 infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 13 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 14 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 15 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 16 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 19 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 20 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 22 Mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 23 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 24 11.8 11.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 25 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 26 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 27 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 28 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 29 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 30 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 31 Std std NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 32 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 33 2.3 2.3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 34 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 35 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 36 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 37 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 38 11.0 11.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 39 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 115 41 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 1 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 2 reductions reduction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 4 especially especially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 5 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 6 because because IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 7 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 8 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 9 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 12 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 13 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 15 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 16 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 17 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 19 Mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 20 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 21 28 28 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 22 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 23 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 24 Std std NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 25 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 26 0.68 0.68 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 27 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 28 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 29 MIQR MIQR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 30 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 31 2.4 2.4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 32 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 116 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 1 Finally finally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 3 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 4 regulating regulate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 5 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 6 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 7 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 9 previous previous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 10 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 11 channels channel NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 13 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 14 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 15 ' ' `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 16 flattens flatten VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 18 curve curve NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 19 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 21 allowing allow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 22 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 23 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 24 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 26 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 27 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 28 need need NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 30 medical medical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 31 care care NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 32 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 33 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 34 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 117 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 1 Together together RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 3 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 4 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 5 create create VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 6 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 7 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 8 race race NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 9 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 10 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 13 spread spread NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 15 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 17 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 18 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 118 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 1 When when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 2 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 4 ahead ahead RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 6 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 7 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 8 compromised compromise VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 10 moving move VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 11 up up RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 12 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 14 darker dark JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 15 shades shade NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 16 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 17 figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 20 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 21 lag lag VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 22 further far RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 25 exponential exponential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 26 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 27 growth growth NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 28 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 29 overwhelm overwhelm VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 30 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 31 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 119 32 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 1 High high JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 2 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 3 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 4 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 6 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 7 rapid rapid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 8 expansion expansion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 10 moving move VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 13 right right NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 16 figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 19 brings bring VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 22 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 23 light light NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 25 activates activate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 26 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 27 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 28 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 29 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 30 allow allow VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 31 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 32 control control NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 120 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 121 1 4 4 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 2 Panels Panels NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 3 A A NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 4 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 5 B b NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 7 shows show VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 8 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 9 alternative alternative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 10 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 11 scenario scenario NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 13 counter counter JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 14 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 15 factual factual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 16 trajectories trajectory NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 18 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 19 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 20 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 122 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 2 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 3 scenario scenario NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 5 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 6 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 7 shift shift VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 8 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 9 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 10 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 11 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 12 baseline baseline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 13 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 14 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 15 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 17 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 18 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 19 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 21 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 22 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 23 currently currently RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 24 achieved achieve VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 25 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 26 multiple multiple JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 27 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 28 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 29 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 30 USA USA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 32 Australia Australia NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 33 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 34 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 35 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 36 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 123 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 2 shift shift NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 3 happens happen VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 4 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 5 March March NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 6 11 11 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 8 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 124 11 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 1 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 2 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 3 officially officially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 4 designated designate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 5 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 125 9 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 1 Such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 2 enhanced enhanced JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 3 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 4 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 5 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 6 reduced reduce VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 7 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 8 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 9 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 10 88.5 88.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 11 millions million NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 13 53.2 53.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 15 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 17 50.5 50.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 18 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 19 59.6 59.6 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 21 millions million NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 126 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 1 Corresponding corresponding JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 2 reduction reduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 4 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 5 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 6 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 7 been be VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 8 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 9 600k 600k NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 10 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 11 403k(CI 403k(ci CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 12 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 13 377k-438k 377k-438k CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 127 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 2 making make VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 3 additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 4 assumptions assumption NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 6 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 7 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 9 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 12 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 13 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 14 inform inform VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 15 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 16 trajectories trajectory NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 128 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 2 explore explore VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 4 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 5 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 6 out out RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 8 spring spring VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 9 2021 2021 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 10 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 11 exclude exclude VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 12 vaccine vaccine NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 14 treatment treatment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 15 availability availability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 129 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 2 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 4 panels panel NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 5 C c NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 7 D D NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 9 shows show VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 10 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 11 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 12 three three CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 13 scenarios scenario NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 15 I i NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 17 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 19 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 20 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 21 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 22 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 23 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 24 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 25 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 26 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 27 functions function NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 28 moving move VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 29 forward forward RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 30 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 31 II ii LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 33 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 34 enhanced enhance VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 35 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 37 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 38 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 39 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 40 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 41 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 43 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 44 adopted adopt VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 45 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 46 July July NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 47 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 48 st st NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 49 2020p 2020p CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 50 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 51 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 52 III III NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 54 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 55 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 56 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 57 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 58 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 59 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 60 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 61 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 62 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 63 set set VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 64 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 65 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 66 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 67 approx approx NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 130 68 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 1 70 70 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 2 th th XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 3 percentile percentile NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 6 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 7 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 8 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 11 leaving leave VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 12 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 13 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 14 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 15 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 131 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 1 Contrary contrary JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 2 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 4 impacts impact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 6 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 7 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 9 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 11 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 12 4-A 4-a CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 16 reductions reduction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 18 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 19 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 20 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 21 additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 22 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 24 II II NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 26 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 27 rather rather RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 28 modest modest JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 30 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 31 1.55 1.55 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 32 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 33 I -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 34 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 35 1.37 1.37 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 36 billions billion NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 37 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 38 II II NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 40 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 41 because because IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 42 recognition recognition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 43 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 44 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 45 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 46 no no RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 47 longer long RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 48 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 49 bottleneck bottleneck NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 50 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 51 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 132 52 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 1 Both both CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 2 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 3 scenarios scenario NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 4 project project VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 6 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 7 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 8 burden burden NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 10 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 11 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 12 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 14 fall fall NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 15 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 17 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 18 hundreds hundred NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 20 millions million NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 22 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 23 concentrated concentrate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 25 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 26 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 27 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 28 estimated estimate VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 29 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 30 B b NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 31 C c NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 32 D d NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 133 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 134 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 135 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 135 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 135 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 135 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 135 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 135 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 136 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 137 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 138 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 139 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 139 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 140 1 24.20139451 24.20139451 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 140 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 140 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 3 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 4 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 5 insufficient insufficient JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 6 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 7 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 8 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 9 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 11 primarily primarily RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 12 India India NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 14 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 15 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 16 Bangladesh Bangladesh NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 18 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 21 USA USA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 141 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 2 contrast contrast NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 4 changes change NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 6 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 7 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 8 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 9 make make VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 10 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 11 major major JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 12 difference difference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 142 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 1 Scenario scenario NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 2 III III NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 3 brings bring VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 4 down down RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 5 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 6 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 7 sharply sharply RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 9 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 10 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 11 low low JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 12 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 143 13 153 153 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 2 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 4 147 147 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 5 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 6 170 170 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 8 millions million NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 10 cumulatively cumulatively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 12 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 14 end end NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 16 winter winter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 144 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 1 Across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 2 scenarios scenario NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 5 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 6 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 8 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 9 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 11 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 12 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 13 usually usually RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 14 peaks peak VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 16 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 17 stabilizes stabilize VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 18 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 19 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 20 lower low JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 22 slowly slowly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 23 declining decline VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 24 linear linear JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 25 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 27 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 28 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 29 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 30 after after IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 31 damped damped JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 32 oscillations oscillation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 34 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 35 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 36 waves wave NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 145 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 1 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 3 approximately approximately RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 5 steady steady JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 6 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 7 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 8 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 9 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 10 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 11 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 12 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 13 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 14 motivate motivate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 15 just just RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 16 enough enough JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 17 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 19 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 20 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 21 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 22 bring bring VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 23 effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 24 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 25 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 26 RE RE NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 27 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 28 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 146 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 1 Faster fast JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 2 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 3 lead lead VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 4 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 5 exponential exponential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 6 growth growth NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 8 raise raise VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 9 alarms alarm NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 11 bring bring VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 12 down down RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 13 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 14 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 15 slower slow JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 16 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 17 lead lead VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 18 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 19 relaxation relaxation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 21 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 22 bringing bring VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 24 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 25 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 26 back back RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 27 up up IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 28 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 29 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 147 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 1 Those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 2 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 3 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 4 peak peak JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 5 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 6 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 7 vary vary VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 8 widely widely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 9 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 10 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 12 depend depend VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 14 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 15 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 18 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 19 constants constant NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 22 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 23 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 24 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 25 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 27 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 28 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 29 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 30 weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 32 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 33 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 34 size size NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 148 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 2 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 3 scenario scenario NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 5 shift shift VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 6 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 7 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 9 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 10 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 12 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 13 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 14 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 15 arguably arguably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 16 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 17 realistic realistic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 18 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 19 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 20 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 21 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 23 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 25 scenarios scenario NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 26 II II NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 28 III III NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 29 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 30 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 31 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 149 32 -C. -c. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 150 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 150 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 150 3 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 150 4 July July NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 150 5 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 151 1 st st NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 151 2 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 1 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 2 shift shift VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 3 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 4 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 7 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 8 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 9 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 10 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 12 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 13 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 15 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 16 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 17 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 18 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 20 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 21 increases increase VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 22 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 23 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 24 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 25 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 27 reduces reduce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 28 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 29 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 30 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 31 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 152 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 3 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 5 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 6 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 7 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 8 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 9 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 10 shifted shift VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 12 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 13 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 16 way way NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 17 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 18 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 19 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 20 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 21 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 22 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 24 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 25 high high JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 26 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 28 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 153 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 1 Resulting result VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 2 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 3 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 4 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 5 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 6 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 8 end end NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 10 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 11 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 12 reflect reflect VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 14 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 15 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 16 peak peak JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 17 burden burden NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 20 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 21 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 22 above above RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 24 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 25 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 26 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 27 0.01 0.01 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 28 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 30 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 31 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 32 0.005 0.005 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 33 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 34 0.045 0.045 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 36 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 37 7.9e-5 7.9e-5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 38 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 40 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 41 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 42 4.4e 4.4e CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 154 43 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 1 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 2 S4 S4 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 3 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 4 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 6 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 7 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 155 8 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 1 Note note VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 2 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 3 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 4 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 5 highly highly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 6 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 8 assumed assume VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 9 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 11 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 14 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 15 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 16 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 18 scenario scenario NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 156 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 2 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 3 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 4 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 5 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 6 interpreted interpret VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 7 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 8 indicators indicator NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 10 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 11 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 13 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 14 precise precise JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 15 predictions prediction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 17 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 18 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 19 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 20 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 21 rigorous rigorous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 22 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 24 reductions reduction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 25 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 26 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 27 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 28 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 29 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 30 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 31 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 32 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 33 significantly significantly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 34 reduce reduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 35 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 36 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 37 while while IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 38 laxer laxer JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 39 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 40 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 41 normalization normalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 42 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 43 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 44 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 45 lead lead VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 46 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 47 overwhelming overwhelming JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 48 breakouts breakout NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 49 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 157 50 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 1 To to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 2 enable enable VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 3 empirical empirical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 4 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 6 considering consider VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 7 limits limit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 9 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 10 availability availability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 11 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 12 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 13 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 14 scale scale NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 17 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 18 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 19 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 20 simplifications simplification NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 22 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 23 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 24 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 25 temper temper VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 27 interpretation interpretation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 30 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 158 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 1 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 3 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 4 analyzing analyze VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 5 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 6 aggregate aggregate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 8 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 10 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 11 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 14 abstract abstract VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 15 away away RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 16 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 17 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 19 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 20 social social JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 21 networks network NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 22 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 23 super super JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 24 - - NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 25 spreaders spreader NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 27 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 28 events event NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 159 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 4 offer offer VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 5 no no DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 6 explanation explanation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 9 underlying underlie VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 10 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 13 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 14 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 160 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 1 Second second RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 3 lacking lack VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 4 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 5 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 6 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 8 world world NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 11 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 12 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 13 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 14 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 15 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 16 additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 17 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 161 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 4 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 5 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 7 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 8 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 9 functions function NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 10 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 11 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 12 tease tease VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 13 apart apart RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 15 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 17 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 18 determinants determinant NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 19 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 20 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 21 national national JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 23 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 24 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 26 business business NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 28 event event NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 29 closures closure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 30 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 31 use use NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 32 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 33 personal personal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 34 protective protective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 35 equipment equipment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 36 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 37 reductions reduction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 38 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 39 physical physical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 40 interactions interaction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 43 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 44 host host NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 45 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 46 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 47 contributors contributor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 162 48 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 1 Thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 3 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 4 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 5 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 6 informative informative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 7 about about IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 9 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 11 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 12 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 15 extrapolation extrapolation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 17 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 18 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 20 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 21 scenarios scenario NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 22 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 23 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 24 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 163 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 2 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 4 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 5 normalization normalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 7 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 8 reduced reduce VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 9 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 10 magnitude magnitude NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 13 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 14 wave wave NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 16 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 17 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 18 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 19 miss miss VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 20 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 22 prove prove VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 23 optimistic optimistic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 164 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 1 Finally finally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 3 absent absent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 4 explicit explicit JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 5 travel travel NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 6 network network NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 7 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 8 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 9 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 10 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 11 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 12 estimate estimate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 14 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 17 reintroduction reintroduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 20 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 22 locations location NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 23 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 24 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 25 contained contain VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 165 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 2 paper paper NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 3 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 5 systemic systemic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 6 view view NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 9 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 11 globally globally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 166 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 2 incorporating incorporate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 3 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 4 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 6 prioritization prioritization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 8 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 11 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 12 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 14 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 15 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 16 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 17 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 18 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 21 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 22 able able JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 23 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 24 closely closely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 25 match match VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 26 widely widely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 27 varying vary VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 28 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 29 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 30 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 31 trajectories trajectory NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 32 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 33 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 34 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 167 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 3 explains explain VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 5 observed observed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 6 heterogeneities heterogeneity NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 7 primarily primarily RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 8 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 9 three three CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 10 pathways pathway NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 168 11 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 1 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 3 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 4 point point VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 6 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 7 variance variance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 9 initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 11 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 12 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 13 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 169 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 2 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 5 surprising surprising JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 6 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 7 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 8 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 9 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 11 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 12 much much RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 14 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 16 human human JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 17 behaviors behavior NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 19 interaction interaction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 20 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 22 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 23 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 24 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 26 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 27 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 28 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 29 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 30 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 31 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 32 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 33 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 34 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 35 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 36 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 37 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 170 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 171 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 172 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 173 1 environments environment NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 173 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 4 study study NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 5 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 6 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 7 designed design VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 9 tease tease VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 10 out out RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 12 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 14 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 15 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 17 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 18 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 19 task task NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 20 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 21 requires require VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 22 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 23 types type NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 25 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 27 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 174 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 1 Second second RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 4 course course NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 8 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 9 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 10 significantly significantly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 11 impacted impact VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 12 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 13 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 14 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 16 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 18 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 19 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 20 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 21 vary vary VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 22 notably notably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 23 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 24 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 25 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 175 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 1 Finally finally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 4 show show VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 6 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 8 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 9 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 10 play play VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 11 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 12 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 13 role role NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 15 shaping shape VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 16 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 17 trajectories trajectory NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 176 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 1 Despite despite IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 2 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 3 variations variation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 6 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 7 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 8 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 9 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 11 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 12 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 14 globe globe NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 15 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 16 a a LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 177 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 3 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 4 just just RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 5 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 6 half half NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 9 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 10 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 11 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 13 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 14 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 15 detailed detailed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 16 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 17 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 18 smaller small JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 19 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 21 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 23 13 13 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 25 14 14 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 178 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 1 b b LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 3 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 4 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 6 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 7 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 8 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 9 about about RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 10 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 11 third third JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 12 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 13 infective infective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 14 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 15 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 16 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 179 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 180 1 c c LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 180 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 3 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 5 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 6 brings bring VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 7 down down RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 8 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 9 substantially substantially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 11 highlighting highlight VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 13 crucial crucial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 14 importance importance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 16 keeping keep VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 17 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 18 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 19 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 20 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 181 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 1 d d LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 3 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 4 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 5 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 6 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 7 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 8 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 9 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 10 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 11 close close RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 13 0.68 0.68 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 14 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 182 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 3 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 4 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 5 growing grow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 6 evidence evidence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 8 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 10 11 11 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 12 28 28 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 183 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 3 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 4 IFR IFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 5 change change NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 6 predictably predictably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 7 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 8 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 11 require require VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 12 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 13 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 14 predictors predictor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 16 no no DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 17 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 18 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 19 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 20 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 21 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 22 stay stay VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 23 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 24 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 26 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 184 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 185 1 e e LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 185 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 1 An an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 2 order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 4 magnitude magnitude NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 6 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 7 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 9 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 12 norm norm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 13 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 14 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 17 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 18 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 19 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 20 percent percent NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 22 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 23 already already RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 24 infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 25 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 26 many many JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 27 nations nation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 28 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 29 nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 30 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 31 herd herd NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 32 immunity immunity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 33 remains remain VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 34 distant distant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 186 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 1 f f LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 3 Finally finally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 5 absent absent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 6 notable notable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 7 improvements improvement NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 9 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 10 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 11 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 12 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 13 breakthroughs breakthrough NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 15 vaccination vaccination NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 16 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 17 treatment treatment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 20 outlook outlook NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 21 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 24 remains remain VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 25 grim grim JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 27 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 28 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 29 nations nation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 30 settling settle VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 31 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 32 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 33 steady steady JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 34 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 36 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 37 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 38 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 39 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 40 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 41 while while IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 42 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 43 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 44 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 45 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 46 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 47 troublingly troublingly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 48 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 187 49 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 188 1 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 188 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 189 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 190 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 190 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 190 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 190 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 190 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 190 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 191 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 192 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 193 15 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 3 simulates simulate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 5 evolution evolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 10 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 11 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 13 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 15 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 17 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 20 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 21 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 23 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 25 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 26 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 194 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 1 Here here RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 3 explain explain VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 4 key key JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 5 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 7 structures structure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 9 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 10 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 12 followed follow VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 13 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 14 complete complete JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 15 listing listing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 17 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 18 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 20 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 22 S5 S5 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 195 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 5 derivative derivative NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 8 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 10 known know VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 11 SEIR seir NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 13 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 15 Exposed exposed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 17 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 19 Recovered recovered JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 21 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 22 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 23 simulating simulate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 24 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 25 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 196 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 2 S5 S5 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 3 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 4 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 5 overview overview NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 7 key key JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 8 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 9 groups group NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 12 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 13 movements movement NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 14 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 15 them -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 16 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 197 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 2 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 3 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 5 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 7 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 8 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 9 driven drive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 10 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 11 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 13 so so IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 14 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 15 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 16 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 17 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 18 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 21 latter latter JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 22 category category NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 198 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 199 1 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 3 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 4 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 6 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 7 short short JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 8 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 9 hands hand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 10 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 11 simplify simplify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 12 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 13 notations notation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 200 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 2 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 3 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 4 documentation documentation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 5 uses use VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 6 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 7 variable variable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 8 names name NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 201 9 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 1 Table table NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 2 S1 S1 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 3 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 5 mapping mapping NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 6 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 8 short short JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 10 hands hand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 13 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 14 names name NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 16 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 17 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 18 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 20 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 22 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 24 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 25 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 27 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 28 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 29 below below RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 202 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 203 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 204 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 204 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 204 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 204 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 204 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 204 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 205 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 206 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 207 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 207 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 207 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 3 From from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 4 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 5 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 6 categories category NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 8 resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 208 9 flows flow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 2 r r NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 3 … … NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 5 take take VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 6 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 8 either either CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 9 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 11 R r NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 12 … … NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 14 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 209 15 Dead Dead NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 2 D D NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 3 … … NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 5 states state NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 7 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 8 corresponding correspond VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 9 subscripts subscript NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 10 U U NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 12 C C NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 14 CH CH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 17 UH uh NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 18 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 19 stocks stock NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 21 UU UU NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 23 UHCH UHCH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 24 etc etc FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 210 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 211 1 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 211 2 flows flow NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 211 3 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 1 Given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 3 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 5 severity severity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 7 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 8 survival survival NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 9 extension extension NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 10 due due IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 12 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 15 distinguish distinguish VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 16 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 17 resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 18 delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 19 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 20 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 22 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 24 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 25 Resolution Resolution NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 26 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 27 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 28 τH τH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 30 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 31 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 32 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 33 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 35 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 36 - - NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 37 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 38 Phase Phase NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 39 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 40 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 41 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 42 τR τr CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 212 44 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 2 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 3 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 4 order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 5 exponential exponential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 6 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 8 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 9 lags lag NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 11 though though IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 12 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 13 analyses analysis NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 14 showed show VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 15 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 16 little little JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 17 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 19 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 20 higher high JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 21 order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 22 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 213 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 2 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 3 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 5 rSP rSP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 7 controls control VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 9 flow flow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 10 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 11 S S NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 13 P p NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 15 depends depend VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 16 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 17 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 18 Contacts Contacts NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 20 CI CI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 23 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 25 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 26 Population Population NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 28 N N NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 30 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 31 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 32 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 33 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 34 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 35 Weather Weather NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 36 Effect Effect NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 37 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 38 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 40 W W NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 214 42 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 2 latter latter JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 5 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 7 RW RW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 10 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 11 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 12 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 13 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 15 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 17 weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 18 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 19 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 20 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 21 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 22 year year NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 23 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 24 round round NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 25 developed develop VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 26 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 27 Xu Xu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 29 colleagues colleague NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 31 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 33 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 34 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 35 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 36 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 37 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 38 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 39 Weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 41 sW sw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 43 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 44 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 45 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 46 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 47 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 48 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 49 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 50 depend depend VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 51 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 52 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 53 Reference Reference NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 54 Force Force NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 55 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 56 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 57 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 58 β β NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 59 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 60 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 61 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 62 infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 63 sub sub NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 64 - - NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 65 populations population NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 66 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 67 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 68 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 69 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 70 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 71 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 72 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 73 ma ma NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 74 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 75 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 76 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 77 mT mT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 78 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 79 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 80 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 81 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 82 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 83 Contacts Contacts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 84 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 85 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 86 Normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 87 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 88 FC FC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 89 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 90 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 91 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 92 captures capture VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 93 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 94 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 95 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 96 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 97 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 98 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 99 fractional fractional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 100 multiplier multiplier NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 101 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 102 baseline baseline VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 103 infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 104 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 105 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 106 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 107 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 108 equation equation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 109 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 110 separate separate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 111 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 112 stocks stock NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 113 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 114 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 115 I -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 116 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 117 P P NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 118 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 119 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 120 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 121 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 122 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 123 superscript superscript NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 124 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 125 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 126 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 127 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 128 s s NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 129 superscript superscript NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 130 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 215 131 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 1 That that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 2 distinction distinction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 4 treated treat VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 5 analytically analytically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 6 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 8 zero zero CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 10 inflated inflated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 11 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 12 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 13 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 14 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 15 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 16 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 18 next next JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 19 section section NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 216 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 2 light light NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 4 evidence evidence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 7 short short JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 8 serial serial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 9 interval interval NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 13 likely likely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 14 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 16 incubation incubation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 17 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 19 29 29 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 21 30 30 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 24 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 25 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 26 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 27 distinguish distinguish VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 28 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 29 infectivity infectivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 30 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 31 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 32 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 33 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 34 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 35 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 36 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 37 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 38 onset onset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 217 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 1 Contagion contagion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 2 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 3 start start VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 4 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 5 Patient Patient NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 6 Zero Zero NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 7 Arrival Arrival NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 8 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 10 T0 T0 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 12 another another DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 13 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 14 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 218 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 2 key key JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 3 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 4 regulating regulate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 6 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 7 flows flow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 8 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 9 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 10 stocks stock NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 11 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 12 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 13 below below RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 16 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 17 schematic schematic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 19 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 20 relationships relationship NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 21 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 22 provided provide VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 23 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 24 Figure Figure NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 25 S6 S6 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 219 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 1 Five five CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 4 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 7 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 8 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 9 above above RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 220 10 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 1 One one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 3 them -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 5 sW sw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 7 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 8 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 10 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 11 assumed assume VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 12 identical identical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 13 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 14 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 15 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 16 see see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 18 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 19 section section NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 20 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 21 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 22 details detail NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 23 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 25 distinction distinction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 26 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 27 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 29 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 30 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 31 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 32 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 34 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 35 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 36 remaining remain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 37 four four CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 38 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 39 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 40 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 41 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 42 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 43 β β NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 44 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 45 mT mT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 46 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 47 ma ma NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 48 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 49 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 50 T0 T0 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 51 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 221 52 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 222 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 223 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 223 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 223 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 223 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 223 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 223 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 224 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 225 15 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 1 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 2 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 3 varies vary VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 5 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 7 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 8 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 9 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 10 life life NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 11 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 12 threatening threaten VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 226 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 1 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 3 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 4 affects affect VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 5 notonly notonly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 6 baseline baseline JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 7 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 8 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 10 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 11 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 12 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 14 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 15 decisions decision NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 16 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 17 impact impact VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 18 official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 19 records record NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 21 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 23 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 24 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 227 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 1 Since since IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 2 movement movement NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 3 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 4 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 5 groups group NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 6 via via IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 7 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 8 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 9 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 11 itself -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 12 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 13 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 15 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 17 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 18 allow allow VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 19 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 20 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 21 inference inference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 23 mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 24 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 25 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 26 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 27 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 28 groups group NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 30 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 31 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 32 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 33 analytical analytical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 34 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 35 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 36 track track VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 37 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 38 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 228 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 2 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 4 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 6 adapted adapt VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 7 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 8 prior prior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 9 research research NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 11 17 17 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 14 obviates obviate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 16 need need NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 17 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 18 disaggregate disaggregate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 20 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 21 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 22 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 23 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 24 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 26 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 27 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 28 prohibitively prohibitively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 29 raise raise VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 30 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 31 computational computational JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 32 costs cost NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 33 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 34 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 229 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 4 represent represent VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 5 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 6 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 8 zero zero CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 10 inflated inflated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 11 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 12 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 230 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 2 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 3 combines combine VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 4 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 5 subpopulations subpopulation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 6 -one -one : cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 7 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 8 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 10 distributed distribute VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 11 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 12 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 13 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 14 mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 15 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 16 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 18 αC αc NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 22 another another DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 23 Additional Additional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 24 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 25 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 26 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 27 zero zero CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 28 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 30 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 31 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 32 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 33 zero zero CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 34 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 35 inflated inflate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 36 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 231 37 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 2 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 4 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 5 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 6 zero zero CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 7 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 8 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 10 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 11 part part NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 14 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 17 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 18 group group NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 19 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 21 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 22 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 23 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 25 a a NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 232 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 2 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 4 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 5 group group NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 6 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 7 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 8 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 9 priority priority NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 11 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 12 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 13 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 16 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 17 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 18 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 19 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 21 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 233 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 1 Thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 2 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 3 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 4 always always RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 5 follow follow VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 7 → → NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 8 → → XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 9 → → XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 10 → → NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 11 pathway pathway NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 234 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 2 pathways pathway NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 3 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 5 remaining remain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 6 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 7 depend depend VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 8 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 9 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 11 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 12 impacts impact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 14 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 16 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 19 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 235 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 1 Note note VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 2 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 4 concept concept NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 6 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 7 defined define VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 8 here here RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 9 only only RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 10 needs need VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 12 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 14 monotonic monotonic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 15 relationship relationship NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 16 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 17 tangible tangible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 18 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 20 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 21 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 24 does do VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 25 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 26 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 27 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 28 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 29 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 30 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 31 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 32 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 33 relationship relationship NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 34 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 35 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 36 real real JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 37 world world NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 38 measure measure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 39 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 40 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 43 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 44 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 45 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 46 better well RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 47 seen see VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 48 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 49 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 50 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 51 construct construct NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 52 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 53 informs inform VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 54 modeling model VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 55 rather rather RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 56 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 57 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 58 real real JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 59 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 60 world world NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 61 variable variable NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 62 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 63 clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 64 definition definition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 236 65 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 1 From from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 2 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 3 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 4 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 7 a a NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 9 αC αc UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 11 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 12 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 13 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 14 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 15 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 17 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 18 limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 19 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 20 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 21 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 237 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 238 1 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 239 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 240 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 240 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 240 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 240 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 240 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 240 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 241 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 242 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 243 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 243 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 243 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 244 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 244 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 2 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 3 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 4 reads read VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 6 Active Active NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 7 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 8 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 10 Tt Tt NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 13 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 14 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 15 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 16 exogenous exogenous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 17 input input NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 18 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 20 see see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 21 appendix appendix NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 22 S3 S3 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 24 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 25 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 26 processing processing JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 27 details detail NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 28 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 29 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 30 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 245 32 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 2 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 4 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 5 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 6 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 7 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 9 typically typically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 10 small small JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 12 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 13 allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 14 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 15 postmortem postmortem JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 16 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 18 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 19 victims victim NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 20 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 21 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 22 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 23 been be VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 24 previously previously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 25 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 27 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 28 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 29 Tests Tests NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 30 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 32 TPM TPM NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 246 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 5 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 7 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 9 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 11 whether whether IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 12 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 13 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 14 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 17 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 18 certain certain JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 19 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 21 Fatalities Fatalities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 22 Screened screen VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 23 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 24 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 26 nPM nPM NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 28 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 29 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 30 identified identify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 31 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 32 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 33 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 34 mortem mortem JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 35 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 247 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 2 anchor anchor VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 4 nPM npm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 6 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 7 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 248 8 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 2 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 3 Previously previously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 4 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 6 nDCH ndch RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 249 8 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 2 rationale rationale NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 3 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 4 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 5 anchoring anchoring NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 6 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 7 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 8 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 10 margin margin NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 11 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 12 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 13 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 14 many many JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 15 unidentified unidentified JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 16 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 17 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 19 hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 22 chances chance NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 23 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 24 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 26 system system NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 27 lacks lack VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 28 enough enough JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 29 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 30 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 32 thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 33 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 34 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 35 mortem mortem JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 36 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 37 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 38 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 39 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 40 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 41 thorough thorough JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 42 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 43 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 44 experimented experiment VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 45 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 46 functional functional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 47 forms form NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 48 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 49 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 50 free free JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 51 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 52 connecting connect VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 53 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 54 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 55 constructs construct NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 56 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 57 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 58 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 59 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 60 conservative conservative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 61 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 62 principle principle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 63 decided decide VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 64 against against IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 65 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 66 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 67 free free JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 68 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 69 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 70 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 71 final final JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 72 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 250 73 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 2 feared fear VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 3 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 4 absent absent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 5 clear clear JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 6 observables observable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 8 identify identify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 9 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 10 additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 11 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 13 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 14 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 15 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 17 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 18 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 19 regulating regulate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 20 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 21 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 22 mortem mortem JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 23 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 251 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 1 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 2 degree degree NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 4 freedom freedom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 5 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 6 improve improve VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 8 fit fit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 9 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 10 potentially potentially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 13 wrong wrong JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 14 reason reason NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 252 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 2 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 3 Where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 5 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 6 Recent Recent NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 7 Infections Infections NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 9 Test test VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 11 mIT mIT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 14 captures capture VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 16 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 18 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 19 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 20 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 21 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 22 recent recent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 23 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 24 reports report NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 253 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 1 To to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 2 allocate allocate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 5 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 7 TNet TNet NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 9 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 10 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 11 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 12 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 14 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 17 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 18 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 19 analytical analytical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 20 logic logic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 21 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 22 allocates allocate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 23 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 24 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 25 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 26 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 28 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 254 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 2 basic basic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 3 idea idea NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 6 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 7 self self NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 8 selection selection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 10 screening screening NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 11 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 12 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 13 centers center NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 15 people people NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 16 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 17 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 18 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 19 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 20 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 21 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 22 signals signal NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 23 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 24 correlate correlate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 25 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 26 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 27 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 29 e.g. e.g. DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 30 high high JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 31 exposure exposure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 32 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 34 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 35 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 36 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 37 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 38 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 39 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 255 40 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 2 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 3 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 4 unit unit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 6 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 7 increases increase VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 9 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 10 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 11 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 12 individual individual NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 13 gets get VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 14 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 16 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 17 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 18 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 19 variable variable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 20 Prob Prob NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 21 Missing Missing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 22 Symptom symptom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 24 pMS pms NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 256 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 2 variable variable NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 3 represents represent VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 5 probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 6 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 7 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 8 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 9 unit unit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 10 fails fail VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 12 convince convince VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 14 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 15 decision decision NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 16 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 17 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 18 test test VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 19 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 20 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 21 individual individual NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 23 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 24 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 25 selectively selectively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 27 sparingly sparingly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 28 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 29 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 30 conducted conduct VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 257 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 4 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 5 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 6 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 7 individual individual NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 8 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 9 k k NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 10 acuity acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 11 units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 12 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 13 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 14 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 15 probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 17 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 18 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 20 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 21 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 22 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 23 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 24 coming come VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 25 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 26 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 27 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 28 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 29 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 30 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 31 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 32 distributed distribute VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 33 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 34 unit unit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 35 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 36 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 37 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 39 αN=1 αN=1 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 41 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 42 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 43 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 44 non non JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 45 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 46 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 47 influenza influenza NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 48 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 49 like like JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 50 illnesses illness NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 258 51 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 259 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 259 2 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 259 3 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 259 4 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 259 5 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 259 6 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 260 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 261 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 261 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 261 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 261 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 261 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 261 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 262 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 263 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 264 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 264 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 264 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 3 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 4 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 5 comes come VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 8 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 9 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 11 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 13 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 14 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 15 mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 16 αC. αC. NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 17 With with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 19 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 20 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 22 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 23 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 24 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 26 α α NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 28 pMS pMS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 30 one one PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 31 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 32 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 33 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 34 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 36 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 37 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 38 source source NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 39 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 40 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 41 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 42 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 43 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 44 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 45 therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 46 need need VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 47 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 48 find find VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 49 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 50 pMS pms NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 51 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 52 allows allow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 53 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 54 supply supply NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 55 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 56 match match VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 57 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 58 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 59 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 60 satisfied satisfied JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 61 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 62 specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 63 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 64 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 65 solving solve VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 66 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 67 following following JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 68 equation equation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 69 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 265 70 pMS pms NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 3 Having have VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 4 solved solve VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 6 p*MS p*MS NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 8 numerically numerically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 12 analytically analytically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 13 calculate calculate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 15 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 16 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 17 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 18 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 19 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 20 positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 21 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 23 αCP αcp XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 24 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 25 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 26 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 28 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 29 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 32 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 33 either either CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 34 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 35 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 36 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 37 having have VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 38 received receive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 39 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 40 false false JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 41 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 42 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 44 αCN αcn XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 266 46 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 3 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 4 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 5 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 6 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 7 100 100 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 8 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 11 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 12 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 14 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 15 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 16 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 17 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 18 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 19 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 20 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 21 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 22 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 24 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 25 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 26 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 27 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 28 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 29 found find VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 30 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 31 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 32 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 33 conservation conservation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 34 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 35 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 36 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 37 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 38 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 39 positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 40 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 41 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 42 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 43 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 267 44 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 1 Starting start VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 2 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 4 basic basic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 5 specification specification NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 7 further further RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 8 account account VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 11 Sensitivity Sensitivity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 13 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 14 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 16 sT st UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 18 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 19 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 21 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 23 αCP αCP NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 25 αCN αcn XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 268 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 2 parametrize parametrize VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 3 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 4 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 5 70 70 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 6 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 8 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 9 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 12 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 15 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 17 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 18 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 19 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 20 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 22 primary primary JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 23 diagnosis diagnosis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 24 method method NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 26 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 27 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 29 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 31 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 32 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 33 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 269 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 1 Overall overall RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 4 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 5 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 6 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 7 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 8 determined determine VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 9 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 10 solving solve VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 12 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 14 combined combine VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 15 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 16 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 18 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 20 inform inform VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 22 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 23 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 24 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 25 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 26 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 27 transitioning transition VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 28 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 29 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 30 - - NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 31 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 33 IP ip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 35 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 36 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 37 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 38 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 39 states state NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 41 IC IC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 42 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 43 ICH ICH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 44 vs. vs. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 45 IU IU NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 46 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 47 IUH IUH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 50 while while IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 51 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 52 calculated calculated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 53 α α NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 54 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 55 inform inform VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 56 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 57 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 58 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 59 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 60 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 61 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 62 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 63 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 64 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 65 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 66 next next RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 270 67 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 2 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 3 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 4 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 6 following following JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 7 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 8 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 9 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 10 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 11 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 12 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 13 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 15 nST nST NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 17 mIT mIT NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 271 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 2 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 3 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 6 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 7 starts start VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 8 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 9 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 10 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 11 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 12 Nominal Nominal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 13 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 14 Capacity Capacity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 16 hN hN NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 19 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 20 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 21 beds bed NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 272 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 2 practice practice NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 4 geographic geographic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 5 variation variation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 7 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 8 density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 10 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 11 creates create VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 12 imperfect imperfect JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 13 matching matching NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 15 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 16 beds bed NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 17 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 18 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 20 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 21 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 22 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 23 point point NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 25 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 27 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 28 because because IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 29 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 30 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 31 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 32 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 33 physically physically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 34 distant distant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 35 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 36 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 37 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 38 hotspots hotspot NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 273 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 2 imperfect imperfect JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 3 matching matching NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 4 means mean VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 5 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 8 nominal nominal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 9 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 10 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 11 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 12 effectively effectively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 13 unavailable unavailable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 14 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 15 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 16 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 18 especially especially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 20 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 22 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 23 densely densely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 24 populated populated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 25 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 274 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 2 therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 3 calculate calculate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 4 Effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 5 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 6 Capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 8 hE he PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 10 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 11 considering consider VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 12 geographic geographic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 13 density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 15 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 16 beds bed NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 18 Bed Bed NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 19 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 20 Square Square NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 21 Kilometer Kilometer NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 22 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 23 dH dh NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 275 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 1 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 2 Where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 4 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 5 represents represent VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 7 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 8 Reference reference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 9 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 10 Density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 12 6.06 6.06 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 13 beds bed NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 14 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 15 km km NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 16 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 18 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 19 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 21 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 24 South South NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 25 Korea Korea NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 276 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 277 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 277 2 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 277 3 sDH sDH NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 2 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 4 Population Population NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 5 Density Density NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 6 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 7 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 8 Availability Availability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 278 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 1 Effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 2 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 4 allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 5 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 6 Potential Potential NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 7 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 8 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 10 HCD HCD NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 12 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 13 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 14 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 17 regular regular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 18 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 19 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 20 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 21 beds bed NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 22 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 23 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 24 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 25 conditions condition NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 27 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 28 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 29 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 30 equals equal VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 31 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 32 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 33 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 34 effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 35 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 36 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 279 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 2 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 3 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 4 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 5 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 6 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 7 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 8 higher high JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 9 priority priority NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 11 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 12 compared compare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 13 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 14 regular regular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 15 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 280 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 4 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 6 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 8 regular regular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 9 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 10 allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 12 mHR mHR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 14 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 15 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 281 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 282 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 283 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 283 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 283 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 283 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 283 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 283 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 284 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 285 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 286 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 286 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 286 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 3 square square NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 5 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 6 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 7 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 8 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 10 mHC mhc CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 13 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 14 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 17 solve solve VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 19 resulting result VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 20 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 21 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 22 allocation allocation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 23 problem problem NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 287 24 analytically analytically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 1 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 3 determine determine VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 5 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 6 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 8 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 9 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 10 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 12 screening screening NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 13 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 14 similar similar JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 15 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 16 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 17 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 18 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 288 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 1 Two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 2 types type NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 4 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 5 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 6 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 7 seek seek VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 8 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 10 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 11 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 12 confirmed confirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 13 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 14 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 16 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 17 without without IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 289 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 2 former former JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 4 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 5 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 6 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 7 seek seek VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 8 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 9 treatment treatment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 290 10 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 2 first first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 3 calculate calculate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 5 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 6 analogous analogous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 8 pMS pms NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 11 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 12 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 13 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 14 informs inform VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 16 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 17 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 18 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 19 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 20 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 21 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 22 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 291 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 2 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 5 PMAS PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 6 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 8 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 9 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 11 pMHC pmhc NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 13 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 14 determined determine VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 15 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 16 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 17 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 18 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 20 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 22 αCT αCT NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 25 Reference reference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 292 26 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 1 Hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 3 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 5 rH rH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 8 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 9 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 10 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 11 capturing capture VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 13 overall overall JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 14 need need NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 15 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 16 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 17 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 18 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 19 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 20 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 21 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 22 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 23 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 24 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 25 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 26 scale scale VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 28 analogue analogue NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 30 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 31 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 33 pMHU pMHU NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 35 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 36 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 37 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 38 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 39 priority priority NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 40 non non JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 41 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 42 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 43 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 44 generally generally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 45 receive receive VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 46 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 47 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 48 formulation formulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 49 ensures ensure VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 50 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 51 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 52 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 54 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 55 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 56 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 57 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 58 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 59 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 60 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 61 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 62 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 63 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 64 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 65 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 66 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 67 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 68 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 69 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 70 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 71 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 72 ample ample JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 73 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 74 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 75 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 76 mHR~1 mHR~1 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 77 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 78 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 79 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 80 confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 81 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 82 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 83 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 84 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 85 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 86 receive receive VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 87 similar similar JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 88 priority priority NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 89 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 90 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 91 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 92 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 93 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 94 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 293 95 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 2 short short JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 5 pM. pm. JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 6 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 7 determine determine VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 8 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 9 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 10 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 11 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 13 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 14 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 15 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 17 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 18 add add VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 19 up up RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 20 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 21 HCD HCD NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 294 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 2 latter latter JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 3 determines determine VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 5 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 7 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 8 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 9 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 11 met meet VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 295 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 1 Analogous analogous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 2 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 4 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 5 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 8 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 9 along along IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 10 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 11 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 12 determines determine VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 14 flow flow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 16 individuals individual NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 17 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 19 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 20 - - NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 21 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 23 IP ip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 25 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 26 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 27 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 28 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 29 non non JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 30 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 31 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 32 states state NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 34 ICH ICH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 35 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 36 IUH IUH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 37 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 38 IC IC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 39 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 40 IU IU NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 296 42 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 1 Matching match VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 2 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 4 allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 5 capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 6 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 7 allows allow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 8 us -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 9 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 10 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 12 realized realize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 13 Probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 15 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 16 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 17 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 18 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 19 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 21 p*M p*M NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 24 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 25 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 26 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 27 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 297 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 4 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 5 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 7 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 8 probabilities probability NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 9 let let VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 10 us -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 11 approximate approximate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 14 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 15 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 16 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 17 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 18 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 19 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 22 out out IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 23 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 24 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 26 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 27 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 28 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 29 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 30 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 31 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 32 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 33 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 35 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 36 αCT αct XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 37 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 38 αCH αCH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 39 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 40 αU αu XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 43 αUH αuh RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 298 44 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 1 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 2 average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 3 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 4 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 6 turn turn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 7 inform inform VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 8 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 9 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 11 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 12 group group NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 299 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 2 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 3 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 4 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 5 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 6 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 7 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 8 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 9 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 10 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 11 limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 12 variation variation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 13 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 14 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 15 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 16 sDH sDH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 300 18 rH. rH. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 2 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 4 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 7 U U NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 9 C C NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 11 CH CH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 14 UH UH NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 15 groups group NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 17 specify specify VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 19 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 20 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 21 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 23 f f NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 26 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 27 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 28 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 29 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 30 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 31 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 32 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 33 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 34 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 301 35 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 2 fb fb NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 4 sets set VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 6 baseline baseline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 8 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 9 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 302 10 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 1 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 3 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 6 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 8 sf sf NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 10 determines determine VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 11 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 12 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 13 changes change NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 14 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 15 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 16 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 17 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 18 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 19 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 20 severe severe JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 21 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 22 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 23 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 24 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 25 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 26 higher high JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 27 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 28 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 303 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 1 Hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 2 reduces reduce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 3 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 4 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 6 expressed express VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 7 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 9 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 10 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 12 Treatment Treatment NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 14 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 15 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 17 sHF sHF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 304 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 2 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 3 incorporates incorporate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 5 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 7 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 8 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 9 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 10 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 11 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 305 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 2 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 3 effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 6 calculate calculate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 8 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 9 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 11 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 12 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 13 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 14 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 15 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 16 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 17 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 20 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 21 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 22 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 24 COVID covid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 25 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 26 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 27 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 28 ages age NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 29 documented document VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 30 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 31 prior prior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 32 work work NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 34 9 9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 306 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 307 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 307 2 normalize normalize VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 307 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 307 4 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 307 5 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 308 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 309 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 309 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 309 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 309 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 309 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 309 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 310 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 311 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 312 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 312 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 312 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 3 against against IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 4 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 5 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 6 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 7 China China NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 8 where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 10 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 11 study study NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 12 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 13 conducted conduct VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 313 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 1 Given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 3 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 5 established establish VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 6 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 8 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 9 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 10 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 12 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 13 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 14 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 15 directly directly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 16 multiplied multiply VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 17 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 19 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 20 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 21 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 314 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 1 Overall overall RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 4 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 5 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 6 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 7 three three CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 9 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 10 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 12 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 14 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 15 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 17 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 18 limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 19 variance variance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 20 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 21 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 23 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 24 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 25 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 27 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 315 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 1 Note note VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 2 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 3 comorbidities comorbiditie NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 4 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 5 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 7 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 8 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 9 explored explore VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 10 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 11 three three CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 12 comorbidities comorbiditie NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 13 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 14 found find VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 16 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 17 unreliable unreliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 19 therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 20 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 21 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 22 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 23 included include VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 26 main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 27 specification specification NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 30 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 316 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 1 Those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 2 comorbidities comorbiditie NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 3 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 4 obesity obesity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 6 chronic chronic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 7 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 10 liver liver NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 11 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 317 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 2 effects effect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 4 explored explore VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 6 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 7 were be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 10 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 318 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 319 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 319 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 319 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 5 where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 7 used use VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 9 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 10 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 11 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 12 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 13 indicators indicator NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 14 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 16 World World NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 17 Health Health NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 18 Organization Organization NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 20 23 23 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 23 normalized normalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 24 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 26 average average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 27 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 28 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 29 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 31 d d NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 320 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 1 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 2 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 3 obesity obesity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 5 Prevalence prevalence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 7 obesity obesity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 8 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 9 adults adult NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 11 BMI BMI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 12 ≥30 ≥30 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 14 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 15 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 16 standardized standardize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 17 estimate estimate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 20 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 321 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 2 chronic chronic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 3 health health NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 4 issues issue NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 6 Probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 8 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 11 dying die VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 12 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 13 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 14 30 30 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 16 exact exact JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 17 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 18 70 70 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 19 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 20 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 22 cardiovascular cardiovascular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 23 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 25 cancer cancer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 27 diabetes diabetes NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 28 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 29 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 30 chronic chronic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 31 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 32 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 33 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 34 liver liver NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 35 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 36 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 37 Liver liver NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 38 cirrhosis cirrhosis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 39 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 40 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 41 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 42 standardized standardize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 43 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 44 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 45 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 46 15 15 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 47 + + SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 50 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 51 100,000 100,000 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 52 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 53 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 54 equation equation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 55 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 56 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 57 noted note VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 58 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 59 Contacts Contacts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 60 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 61 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 62 Normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 63 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 64 FC FC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 65 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 66 regulates regulate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 67 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 68 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 322 69 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 2 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 3 ranges range VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 4 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 6 minimum minimum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 8 Min Min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 9 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 10 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 11 ; ; , cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 12 cMin cMin NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 15 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 16 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 17 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 18 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 21 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 22 Utility Utility NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 23 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 24 Normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 25 Activities Activities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 27 UN UN NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 29 compared compare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 30 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 31 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 32 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 33 Limited Limited NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 323 34 Activities Activities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 324 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 324 2 UL ul NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 324 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 1 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 2 light light NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 4 additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 5 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 6 associated associate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 7 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 8 normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 9 activity activity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 10 patterns pattern NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 12 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 13 utilities utility NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 14 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 15 normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 17 limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 18 activities activity NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 19 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 20 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 21 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 325 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 326 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 327 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 327 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 327 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 327 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 327 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 327 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 328 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 329 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 330 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 330 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 330 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 3 Overall Overall NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 6 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 7 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 9 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 10 sector sector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 11 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 13 following following JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 14 five five CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 15 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 17 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 19 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 20 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 21 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 22 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 23 cMin cMin NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 25 τRU τru CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 27 τRD τRD NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 28 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 29 λ λ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 30 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 32 wR. wR. MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 33 Table Table NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 331 34 S1 S1 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 1 summarizes summarize VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 3 main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 4 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 5 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 7 appendix appendix NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 8 S1 S1 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 10 providing provide VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 12 mapping mapping NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 13 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 14 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 15 variable variable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 16 names name NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 19 short short JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 20 forms form NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 332 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 2 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 3 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 4 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 6 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 9 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 10 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 11 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 12 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 13 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 14 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 15 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 16 prior prior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 17 research research NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 333 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 1 Table table NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 2 S1 s1 NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 3 -Mapping -mapping NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 4 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 5 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 6 variable variable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 7 names name NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 9 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 10 short short JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 11 form form NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 14 subset subset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 16 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 19 discussed discuss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 21 S1 S1 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 334 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 1 Also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 2 included include VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 4 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 5 explained explain VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 6 above above RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 8 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 10 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 11 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 335 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 336 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 337 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 338 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 339 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 339 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 339 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 339 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 339 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 339 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 340 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 341 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 342 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 342 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 342 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 343 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 343 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 4 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 5 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 6 nonlinear nonlinear JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 8 complex complex JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 11 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 12 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 13 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 14 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 15 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 16 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 17 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 18 clean clean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 19 analytical analytical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 20 solutions solution NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 21 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 22 provable provable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 23 bounds bound NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 24 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 25 errors error NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 27 biases bias NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 344 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 4 designing design VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 6 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 7 procedure procedure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 10 set set VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 11 out out RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 12 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 13 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 14 conservative conservative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 345 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 4 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 6 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 7 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 8 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 9 accommodates accommodate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 10 overdispersion overdispersion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 12 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 14 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 15 binomial binomial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 17 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 19 utilize utilize VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 20 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 21 hierarchical hierarchical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 22 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 23 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 24 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 25 couple couple NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 26 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 27 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 28 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 29 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 30 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 31 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 32 reduces reduce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 33 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 34 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 36 over over RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 37 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 38 fitting fit VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 39 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 40 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 41 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 43 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 44 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 45 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 46 conceptual conceptual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 47 definitions definition NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 48 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 49 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 50 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 51 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 52 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 53 similarity similarity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 54 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 55 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 56 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 57 inform inform VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 58 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 59 magnitude magnitude NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 60 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 61 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 62 coupling coupling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 63 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 64 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 346 65 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 1 Compared compare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 2 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 3 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 4 common common JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 5 choices choice NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 7 similar similar JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 8 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 9 settings setting NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 11 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 12 choices choice NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 13 tend tend VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 14 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 15 widen widen VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 17 credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 18 regions region NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 19 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 20 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 21 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 23 reduce reduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 25 quality quality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 26 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 28 fit fit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 29 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 30 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 32 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 347 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 2 return return NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 5 think think VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 7 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 8 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 9 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 10 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 11 reliable reliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 13 projection projection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 15 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 16 informative informative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 17 about about IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 19 underlying underlie VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 20 processes process NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 23 better well JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 24 reflective reflective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 26 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 27 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 28 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 29 complex complex JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 30 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 31 settings setting NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 348 32 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 5 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 6 system system NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 8 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 9 differential differential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 10 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 11 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 12 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 13 set set NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 15 known know VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 17 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 349 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 2 known know VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 4 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 5 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 6 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 7 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 8 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 10 existing exist VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 11 literature literature NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 13 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 14 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 15 play play VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 16 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 17 active active JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 18 role role NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 20 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 350 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 2 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 4 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 5 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 6 categorized categorize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 7 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 8 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 9 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 10 vary vary VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 11 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 12 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 13 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 15 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 16 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 17 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 19 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 20 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 21 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 22 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 24 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 25 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 26 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 351 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 2 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 3 method method NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 5 designed design VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 6 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 7 identify identify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 8 both both CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 10 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 11 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 12 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 15 credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 16 regions region NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 17 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 19 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 20 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 22 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 24 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 25 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 26 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 27 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 29 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 32 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 33 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 34 subset subset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 36 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 37 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 39 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 40 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 352 42 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 3 done do VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 4 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 6 combination combination NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 8 estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 10 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 11 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 12 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 13 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 15 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 16 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 17 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 18 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 21 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 22 Markov Markov NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 23 Chain Chain NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 24 Monte Monte NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 25 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 26 simulations simulation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 27 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 28 quantify quantify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 30 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 31 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 32 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 33 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 34 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 353 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 2 first first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 3 introduce introduce VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 5 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 6 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 7 components component NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 10 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 11 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 13 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 16 fit fit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 17 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 18 time time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 19 series series NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 23 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 24 effects effect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 25 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 26 coupling couple VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 27 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 28 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 29 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 30 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 33 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 34 penalty penalty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 35 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 36 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 37 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 354 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 1 Then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 3 explain explain VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 5 implementation implementation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 6 details detail NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 355 7 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 1 Define define VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 3 calculations calculation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 5 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 6 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 7 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 9 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 11 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 12 i i PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 13 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 14 μij(t μij(t NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 356 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 2 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 3 index index NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 4 j j NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 5 specifying specify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 6 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 8 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 12 observed observed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 13 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 15 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 16 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 17 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 18 yij(t yij(t NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 20 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 22 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 23 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 24 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 25 vector vector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 26 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 27 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 28 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 29 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 30 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 31 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 32 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 33 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 34 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 35 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 36 ϕ. ϕ. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 37 Note note VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 38 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 39 vector vector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 40 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 41 several several JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 42 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 43 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 44 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 45 specifying specify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 46 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 47 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 48 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 49 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 50 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 51 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 52 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 53 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 54 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 55 Treatment Treatment NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 56 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 57 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 58 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 59 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 60 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 61 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 62 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 63 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 64 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 65 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 357 66 i. i. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 3 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 4 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 5 summarized summarize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 6 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 8 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 9 f f XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 10 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 11 produces produce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 12 predictions prediction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 14 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 15 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 17 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 18 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 19 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 20 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 21 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 23 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 25 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 26 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 27 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 28 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 29 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 30 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 31 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 32 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 33 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 34 binomial binomial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 35 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 36 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 37 specify specify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 39 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 40 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 41 observing observe VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 42 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 43 y y NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 44 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 45 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 46 θ θ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 47 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 48 ϕ. ϕ. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 49 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 50 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 51 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 52 logarithm logarithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 53 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 54 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 55 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 56 observing observe VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 57 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 58 data data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 59 series series NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 60 y y NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 61 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 62 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 358 63 predictions prediction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 1 μ(θ μ(θ CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 3 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 5 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 7 where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 9 dropping drop VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 10 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 11 index index NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 13 clarity clarity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 15 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 359 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 360 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 361 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 361 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 361 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 361 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 361 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 361 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 362 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 363 15 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 1 Summing sum VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 3 LT LT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 4 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 5 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 6 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 7 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 9 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 11 log log NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 13 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 16 observed observed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 17 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 18 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 19 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 20 parameterization parameterization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 23 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 364 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 2 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 3 binomial binomial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 4 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 5 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 6 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 7 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 10 μ μ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 12 ε ε NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 13 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 14 determine determine VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 16 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 19 scaling scale VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 20 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 21 shape shape NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 24 observed observed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 25 outcomes outcome NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 365 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 2 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 3 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 5 ε ε NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 7 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 9 flexibility flexibility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 10 needed need VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 11 fit fit JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 12 outcomes outcome NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 13 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 14 fat fat JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 15 tails tail NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 17 auto auto NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 18 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 19 correlation correlation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 366 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 2 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 3 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 4 itself -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 5 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 6 subject subject JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 8 search search NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 11 optimization optimization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 12 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 367 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 4 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 7 Thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 9 create create VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 10 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 12 set set NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 15 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 16 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 17 parameter(s parameter(s NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 22 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 23 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 24 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 27 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 28 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 29 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 30 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 31 along along IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 32 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 33 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 34 conceptual conceptual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 35 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 36 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 368 37 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 2 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 3 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 4 scale scale NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 7 implicitly implicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 8 assesses assess VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 10 reliability reliability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 12 inherent inherent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 13 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 15 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 16 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 17 reports report NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 21 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 22 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 23 inform inform VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 25 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 26 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 27 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 28 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 29 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 30 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 369 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 2 augment augment VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 4 vectors vector NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 5 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 7 θ θ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 9 include include VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 10 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 11 scaling scale VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 12 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 13 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 14 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 370 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 1 Up up IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 2 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 4 point point NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 6 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 7 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 8 included include VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 9 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 10 relationship relationship NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 11 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 12 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 13 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 14 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 371 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 2 independence independence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 3 assumption assumption NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 4 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 5 allow allow VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 7 representing represent VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 9 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 10 underlying underlying JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 11 concept concept NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 12 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 13 vary vary VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 14 widely widely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 15 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 16 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 17 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 372 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 1 Such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 2 treatment treatment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 4 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 5 providing provide VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 6 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 7 flexibility flexibility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 9 enhances enhance VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 11 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 12 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 13 fit fit JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 14 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 15 historical historical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 16 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 373 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 4 ignores ignore VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 6 conceptual conceptual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 7 link link NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 8 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 9 exists exist VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 12 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 13 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 14 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 17 potentially potentially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 18 allowing allow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 20 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 21 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 22 fit fit VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 24 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 25 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 27 wrong wrong JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 28 reasons reason NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 30 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 31 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 32 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 33 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 34 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 35 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 36 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 37 correspond correspond VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 38 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 39 meaningful meaningful VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 40 real real JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 41 world world NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 42 concepts concept NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 374 44 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 2 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 3 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 4 likely likely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 5 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 6 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 7 reliable reliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 9 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 10 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 11 robust robust JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 13 future future JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 14 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 375 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 2 therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 3 define define VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 5 Hierarchical hierarchical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 6 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 7 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 9 account account VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 12 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 13 dependencies dependency NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 14 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 15 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 376 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 4 assume assume VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 6 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 7 conceptual conceptual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 10 e.g. e.g. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 11 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 13 Treatment Treatment NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 14 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 15 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 18 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 19 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 20 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 22 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 23 coming come VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 24 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 25 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 26 underlying underlying JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 27 normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 28 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 29 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 30 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 31 unknown unknown JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 32 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 34 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 35 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 36 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 38 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 39 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 40 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 41 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 42 specified specified JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 43 standard standard JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 44 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 377 45 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 2 assumption assumption NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 4 similar similar JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 7 use use NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 9 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 10 Random Random NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 11 Effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 12 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 13 models model NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 14 common common JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 15 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 16 regression regression NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 17 frameworks framework NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 19 though though IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 21 deviate deviate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 22 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 23 canonical canonical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 24 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 25 effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 26 models model NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 27 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 28 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 29 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 30 specifying specify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 31 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 32 standard standard JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 33 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 378 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 2 fact fact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 5 possible possible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 6 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 7 estimate estimate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 9 standard standard JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 10 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 11 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 12 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 13 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 14 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 17 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 18 obtain obtain VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 19 better well JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 20 fits fit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 21 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 22 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 25 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 26 adding add VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 27 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 28 degrees degree NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 30 freedom freedom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 31 ignores ignore VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 32 qualitatively qualitatively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 33 relevant relevant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 34 insights insight NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 35 about about IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 36 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 37 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 38 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 39 coupling coupling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 40 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 41 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 42 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 43 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 44 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 45 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 46 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 47 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 48 thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 49 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 50 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 51 fit fit VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 52 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 53 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 54 better well RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 55 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 56 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 57 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 58 wrong wrong JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 59 reasons reason NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 379 60 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 2 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 4 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 7 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 8 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 9 Patient Patient NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 10 Zero Zero NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 11 Arrival Arrival NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 12 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 14 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 15 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 16 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 17 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 18 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 19 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 21 whereas whereas IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 22 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 23 reflecting reflect VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 24 innate innate JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 25 properties property NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 26 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 28 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 29 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 30 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 31 virus virus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 32 itself -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 34 e.g. e.g. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 35 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 36 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 37 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 39 a a NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 42 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 43 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 44 determining determine VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 45 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 47 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 48 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 49 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 50 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 51 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 52 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 53 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 54 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 55 fb fb NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 56 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 57 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 58 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 59 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 60 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 61 similar similar JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 62 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 63 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 64 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 380 65 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 1 Allowing allow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 3 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 4 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 5 determine determine VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 7 variance variance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 10 latter latter JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 11 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 12 lead lead VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 13 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 14 better well JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 15 fits fit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 18 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 19 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 20 find find VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 21 baseline baseline JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 22 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 23 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 24 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 25 easily easily RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 26 match match VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 27 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 28 variations variation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 29 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 30 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 33 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 34 expand expand VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 35 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 36 corresponding correspond VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 37 variance variance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 38 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 39 accordingly accordingly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 381 40 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 3 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 5 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 7 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 8 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 9 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 10 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 11 too too RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 12 easy easy JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 14 job job NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 15 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 16 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 17 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 18 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 19 require require VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 20 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 21 precise precise JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 22 balancing balancing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 23 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 24 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 26 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 28 acuity acuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 29 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 30 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 33 post post JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 34 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 35 mortem mortem JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 36 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 37 decisions decision NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 38 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 39 fit fit VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 40 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 41 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 382 42 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 1 Thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 4 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 5 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 6 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 7 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 8 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 9 informative informative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 11 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 12 further further RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 13 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 14 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 15 underlying underlying JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 16 processes process NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 19 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 20 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 23 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 24 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 25 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 26 care care VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 27 about about IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 383 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 2 implementation implementation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 4 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 5 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 6 effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 7 introduces introduce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 8 another another DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 9 element element NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 10 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 12 overall overall JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 13 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 14 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 15 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 16 Here here RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 17 θik θik NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 18 represents represent VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 20 k k XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 21 th th XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 22 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 24 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 25 i i PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 28 ̅ ̅ UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 29 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 30 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 32 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 34 average average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 35 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 36 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 37 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 39 k k XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 40 th th XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 41 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 384 42 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 1 σk σk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 4 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 5 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 6 specified specified JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 7 allowable allowable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 8 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 11 k k XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 12 th th XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 13 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 14 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 15 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 16 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 385 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 386 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 387 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 387 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 387 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 387 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 387 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 387 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 388 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 389 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 390 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 390 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 390 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 3 Specifying specify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 4 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 5 standard standard JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 6 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 7 adds add VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 8 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 9 subjective subjective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 10 element element NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 13 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 14 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 391 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 4 note note VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 6 subjective subjective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 7 elements element NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 8 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 9 ultimately ultimately RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 10 indispensable indispensable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 12 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 13 modeling modeling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 14 activity activity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 15 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 16 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 17 specifying specify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 19 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 20 boundary boundary NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 21 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 23 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 25 aggregation aggregation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 27 use use NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 29 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 30 functional functional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 31 forms form NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 32 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 33 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 34 choice choice NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 36 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 37 functions function NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 38 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 39 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 40 choices choice NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 41 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 42 built build VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 43 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 44 subjective subjective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 45 assessments assessment NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 46 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 47 experts expert NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 48 bring bring VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 49 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 50 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 51 modeling modeling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 52 project project NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 392 53 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 1 Absent absent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 3 conceptually conceptually RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 4 informed informed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 5 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 6 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 9 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 10 need need VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 12 make make VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 14 assumption assumption NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 15 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 16 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 17 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 18 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 20 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 21 independent independent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 23 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 24 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 25 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 26 complex complex JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 27 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 28 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 29 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 30 correctly correctly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 31 identify identify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 32 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 33 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 34 dependencies dependency NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 35 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 36 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 37 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 393 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 2 think think VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 3 both both CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 4 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 5 alternatives alternative NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 6 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 7 inferior inferior JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 10 chosen choose VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 11 method method NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 394 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 1 So so RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 2 here here RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 4 focus focus VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 6 transparently transparently RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 7 documenting document VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 9 explaining explain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 10 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 11 assumptions assumption NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 395 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 1 Table Table NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 2 S2 S2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 3 summarizes summarize VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 6 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 9 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 11 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 13 mean mean VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 14 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 17 mean mean VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 19 Inter Inter NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 20 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 21 Quartile Quartile NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 22 Range Range NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 26 assumed assumed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 27 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 28 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 30 σk σk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 32 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 33 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 396 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 397 1 sW sw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 397 2 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 397 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 397 4 Weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 397 5 0.765 0.765 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 398 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 398 2 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 398 3 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 398 4 so so RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 1 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 2 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 3 metrics metric NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 4 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 5 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 6 apply apply VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 399 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 400 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 1 Given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 3 wide wide JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 4 range range NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 6 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 7 long long JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 8 tail tail NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 10 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 13 Log10 Log10 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 14 transformation transformation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 15 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 16 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 18 specifying specify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 20 dispersion dispersion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 21 penalty penalty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 23 equation equation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 24 27 27 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 27 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 28 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 29 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 30 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 31 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 32 10 10 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 33 σ σ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 35 where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 36 σ σ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 37 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 38 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 39 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 40 equation equation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 41 27 27 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 401 42 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 402 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 2 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 4 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 5 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 6 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 7 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 8 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 9 variable variable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 10 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 11 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 13 thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 14 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 15 assigned assign VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 16 small small JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 17 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 18 allowances allowance NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 19 compared compare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 20 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 21 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 22 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 403 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 404 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 405 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 405 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 405 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 405 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 405 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 405 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 406 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 407 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 408 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 408 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 408 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 3 Finally finally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 6 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 8 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 10 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 11 penalty penalty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 12 term term NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 14 allow allow VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 15 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 16 predictions prediction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 17 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 18 informed inform VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 19 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 20 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 21 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 22 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 23 collected collect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 24 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 25 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 26 news news NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 27 agencies agency NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 28 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 29 researchers researcher NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 30 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 31 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 32 subset subset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 33 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 34 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 35 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 36 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 37 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 409 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 1 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 2 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 3 provide provide VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 4 snapshots snapshot NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 6 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 7 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 9 compared compare VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 10 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 12 historical historical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 13 baseline baseline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 15 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 16 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 17 window window NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 19 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 21 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 22 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 410 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 1 Subtracting subtract VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 2 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 3 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 4 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 5 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 8 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 9 officially officially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 10 recorded record VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 12 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 13 window window NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 14 offers offer VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 15 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 16 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 17 point point NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 18 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 19 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 20 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 21 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 22 accounted account VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 23 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 25 official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 26 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 28 ei ei NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 411 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 2 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 3 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 6 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 8 counter counter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 9 - - NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 10 part part NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 12 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 13 construct construct NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 16 simulated simulated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 17 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 18 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 19 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 20 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 21 included include VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 22 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 24 simulated simulated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 25 reported report VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 26 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 27 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 29 ̅ ̅ UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 412 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 1 There there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 3 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 5 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 6 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 7 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 8 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 11 historical historical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 12 baselines baseline NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 13 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 14 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 15 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 16 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 17 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 18 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 19 adjust adjust VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 20 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 21 demographic demographic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 22 change change NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 24 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 25 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 26 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 27 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 28 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 29 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 30 factors factor NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 31 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 32 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 33 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 35 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 36 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 37 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 38 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 39 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 40 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 41 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 42 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 43 changes change NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 44 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 45 healthcare healthcare NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 46 availability availability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 47 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 48 utilization utilization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 49 motivated motivate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 50 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 51 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 52 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 53 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 54 directly directly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 55 attributable attributable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 56 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 57 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 58 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 59 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 60 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 61 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 62 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 63 surgeries surgery NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 64 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 65 delayed delay VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 66 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 67 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 68 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 69 avoided avoid VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 70 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 71 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 72 heart heart NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 73 conditions condition NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 74 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 75 ignored ignore VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 76 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 413 77 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 1 Excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 2 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 3 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 4 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 5 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 6 reduced reduce VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 7 due due IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 9 reduced reduce VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 10 traffic traffic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 11 accidents accident NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 13 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 14 light light NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 16 physical physical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 17 distancing distancing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 18 policies policy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 21 pollution pollution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 22 related relate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 23 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 414 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 1 Given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 2 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 3 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 6 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 8 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 9 penalty penalty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 10 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 12 keep keep VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 14 simulated simulate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 15 unaccounted unaccounted JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 16 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 17 mortality mortality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 18 close close JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 19 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 21 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 22 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 23 penalty penalty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 24 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 25 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 26 seen see VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 27 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 28 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 29 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 30 coming come VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 31 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 32 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 33 probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 34 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 37 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 38 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 39 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 40 attributed attribute VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 41 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 42 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 43 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 44 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 45 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 46 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 47 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 48 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 49 significant significant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 50 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 51 around around IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 52 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 53 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 54 so so RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 55 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 56 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 57 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 58 variation variation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 59 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 60 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 61 figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 62 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 63 quite quite RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 64 plausible plausible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 65 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 66 70%-110 70%-110 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 67 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 68 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 69 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 70 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 415 71 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 3 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 4 outside outside RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 6 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 7 range range NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 8 start start VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 9 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 10 impose impose VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 11 increasingly increasingly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 12 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 13 penalties penalty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 15 so so IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 16 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 17 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 18 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 19 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 20 becomes become VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 21 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 416 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 1 Combining combine VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 2 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 3 three three CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 4 components component NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 7 obtain obtain VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 9 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 10 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 11 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 12 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 13 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 15 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 17 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 18 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 19 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 21 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 23 LT LT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 24 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 25 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 27 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 28 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 29 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 30 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 31 reached reach VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 32 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 33 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 34 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 35 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 36 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 37 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 38 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 39 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 40 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 42 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 43 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 44 minimum minimum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 45 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 46 50 50 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 47 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 48 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 417 49 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 2 excludes exclude VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 3 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 4 early early JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 5 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 6 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 7 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 8 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 9 unreliable unreliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 11 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 13 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 14 very very RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 15 small small JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 16 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 17 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 18 predictions prediction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 19 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 20 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 22 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 23 lead lead VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 24 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 25 unreasonably unreasonably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 26 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 27 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 28 contributions contribution NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 418 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 3 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 5 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 6 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 9 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 10 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 12 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 14 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 15 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 16 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 18 impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 20 weather weather NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 22 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 23 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 24 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 25 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 28 21 21 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 29 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 30 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 31 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 32 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 33 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 34 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 35 coupled couple VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 36 together together RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 37 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 38 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 39 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 40 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 41 effects effect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 42 framework framework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 43 described describe VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 44 above above RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 419 45 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 1 Out out IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 3 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 5 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 6 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 10 rest rest NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 11 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 12 informing inform VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 13 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 14 features feature NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 16 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 17 transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 19 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 21 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 24 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 25 perception perception NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 27 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 420 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 1 With with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 2 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 3 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 5 84 84 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 6 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 8 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 9 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 10 lead lead VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 12 about about RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 13 1800 1800 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 14 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 15 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 16 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 17 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 421 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 2 direct direct JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 3 optimization optimization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 4 approach approach NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 6 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 7 problem problem NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 8 suffers suffer VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 9 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 10 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 11 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 13 getting get VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 14 stuck stick VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 15 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 16 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 17 optima optima NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 20 direct direct JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 21 use use NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 23 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 24 methods method NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 25 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 26 find find VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 28 promising promising JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 29 region region NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 30 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 31 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 32 space space NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 33 suffers suffer VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 34 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 35 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 36 curse curse NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 37 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 38 dimensionality dimensionality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 422 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 2 therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 3 designed design VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 5 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 6 4-step 4-step CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 7 procedure procedure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 9 find find VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 10 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 11 reliable reliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 12 solutions solution NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 13 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 14 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 15 problems problem NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 423 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 424 1 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 424 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 4 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 5 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 7 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 8 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 9 vector vector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 12 smaller small JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 13 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 15 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 16 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 17 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 18 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 20 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 21 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 22 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 23 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 425 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 2 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 4 Powell Powell NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 5 direction direction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 6 search search NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 7 method method NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 8 implemented implement VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 10 Vensim Vensim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 11 ™ ™ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 12 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 13 software software NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 15 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 16 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 426 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 2 method method NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 5 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 6 search search NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 7 approach approach NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 8 though though IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 10 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 11 features feature NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 12 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 13 allows allow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 15 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 16 escape escape VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 17 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 18 optima optima NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 20 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 21 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 427 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 2 restart restart VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 4 optimization optimization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 5 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 6 various various JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 7 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 8 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 11 feasible feasible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 12 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 13 space space NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 15 track track VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 17 convergence convergence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 19 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 20 restarts restart NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 21 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 22 unique unique JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 23 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 24 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 428 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 2 stop stop VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 4 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 5 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 7 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 8 repeatedly repeatedly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 9 landing land VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 10 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 12 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 13 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 14 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 15 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 17 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 429 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 430 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 431 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 431 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 431 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 431 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 431 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 431 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 432 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 433 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 434 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 434 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 434 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 435 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 435 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 435 3 space space NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 435 4 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 2 procedure procedure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 3 showed show VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 4 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 5 local local JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 6 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 7 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 8 exist exist VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 10 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 11 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 12 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 13 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 14 many many JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 15 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 16 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 17 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 18 within within IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 19 100 100 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 20 restarts restart NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 21 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 22 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 23 find find VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 24 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 25 - - SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 26 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 27 distinct distinct JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 28 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 436 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 2 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 4 coherent coherent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 5 set set NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 7 starting start VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 8 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 10 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 12 ̅ ̅ UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 14 next next JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 15 steps step NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 437 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 1 2 2 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 3 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 4 go go VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 5 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 6 iterations iteration NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 9 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 10 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 11 steps step NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 438 12 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 1 A a LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 3 Conduct conduct VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 4 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 5 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 6 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 7 optimizations optimization NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 8 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 9 50 50 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 10 restarts restart NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 12 find find VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 14 vector vector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 439 16 θi θi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 1 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 3 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 4 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 5 ̅ ̅ UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 7 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 8 optimization optimization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 9 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 10 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 12 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 13 B. B. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 440 14 B B NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 1 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 2 Conduct conduct VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 4 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 5 optimization optimization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 7 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 8 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 9 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 10 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 11 fixing fix VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 12 θi θi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 14 optimizing optimize VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 15 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 16 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 19 ̅ ̅ UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 20 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 21 though though IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 22 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 23 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 24 simply simply RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 26 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 27 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 28 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 29 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 30 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 31 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 32 previous previous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 33 round round NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 441 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 2 stop stop VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 3 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 4 iterations iteration NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 5 offer offer VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 6 little little JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 7 improvement improvement NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 8 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 9 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 10 round round NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 13 next next JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 15 less less JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 16 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 17 0.05 0.05 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 18 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 19 improvement improvement NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 21 loglikelihood loglikelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 442 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 443 1 3 3 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 443 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 2 conduct conduct VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 4 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 5 optimization optimization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 6 allowing allow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 7 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 10 θi θi UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 12 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 14 ̅ ̅ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 16 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 17 change change VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 19 starting start VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 20 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 22 point point NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 23 found find VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 26 last last JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 27 iteration iteration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 29 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 30 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 444 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 2 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 3 finds find VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 5 exact exact JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 6 peak peak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 9 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 10 landscape landscape NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 11 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 12 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 14 best well RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 15 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 16 fitting fitting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 17 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 18 set set VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 19 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 21 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 445 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 1 4 4 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 3 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 5 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 7 theoretically theoretically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 8 one one PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 9 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 10 conduct conduct VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 12 sampling sampling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 13 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 14 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 15 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 19 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 20 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 446 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 4 experiments experiment NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 5 showed show VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 6 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 8 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 9 dimensionality dimensionality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 12 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 13 space space NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 14 requires require VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 15 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 16 infeasible infeasible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 17 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 19 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 20 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 21 achieve achieve VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 22 adequate adequate JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 23 mixing mixing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 25 ensure ensure VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 26 reliable reliable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 27 credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 28 regions region NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 29 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 30 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 32 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 447 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 1 To to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 2 overcome overcome VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 3 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 4 challenge challenge NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 6 note note VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 7 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 11 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 12 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 13 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 14 connected connect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 15 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 16 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 17 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 18 only only RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 19 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 20 ϕ ϕ NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 22 ̅ ̅ UH cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 25 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 26 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 27 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 28 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 29 rather rather RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 30 insensitive insensitive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 31 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 32 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 33 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 34 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 35 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 448 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 2 insensitivity insensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 4 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 7 fact fact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 8 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 9 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 10 single single JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 11 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 12 only only RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 13 contributes contribute VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 14 about about RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 15 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 16 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 17 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 19 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 20 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 21 ' ' POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 22 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 25 within within IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 26 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 27 typical typical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 28 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 30 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 31 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 32 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 33 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 34 often often RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 35 ca can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 36 n't not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 37 change change VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 38 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 39 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 40 10 10 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 41 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 42 before before IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 43 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 44 resulting result VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 45 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 46 become become VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 47 highly highly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 48 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 449 49 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 3 one one PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 4 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 5 conduct conduct VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 6 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 7 approximate approximate JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 8 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 10 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 11 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 12 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 13 fixing fix VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 15 general general JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 17 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 18 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 19 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 20 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 21 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 24 only only RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 25 sampling sample VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 26 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 28 θi θi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 29 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 30 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 31 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 450 32 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 2 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 3 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 4 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 5 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 6 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 7 designed design VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 9 exploring explore VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 10 high high JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 11 dimensional dimensional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 12 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 13 spaces space NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 14 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 15 differential differential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 16 evolution evolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 18 self self NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 19 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 20 adaptive adaptive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 21 randomized randomized JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 22 subspace subspace NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 23 sampling sampling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 25 19 19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 451 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 1 Using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 2 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 3 method method NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 5 obtain obtain VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 6 good good JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 7 mixing mixing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 9 stable stable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 10 outcomes outcome NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 12 Robin Robin NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 13 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 14 Brooks Brooks NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 15 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 16 Gelman Gelman NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 17 PSFR PSFR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 18 convergence convergence NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 19 statistic statistic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 20 remaining remain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 21 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 22 1.1 1.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 24 after after IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 25 about about IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 26 600,000 600,000 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 27 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 30 burn burn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 31 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 32 in in RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 33 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 452 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 2 continue continue VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 4 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 6 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 7 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 9 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 10 million million CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 11 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 13 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 14 randomly randomly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 15 take take VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 16 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 17 subsample subsample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 19 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 20 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 21 after after IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 23 burn burn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 24 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 25 in in RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 26 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 27 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 28 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 29 next next JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 30 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 453 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 454 1 5 5 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 454 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 2 resulting result VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 3 subsamples subsample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 5 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 6 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 7 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 8 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 9 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 10 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 11 assembled assemble VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 12 together together RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 14 create create VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 15 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 16 final final JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 17 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 20 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 22 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 23 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 24 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 25 conduct conduct VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 26 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 28 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 29 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 30 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 31 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 32 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 33 scale scale NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 455 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 1 Uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 4 handful handful NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 6 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 8 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 9 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 10 identified identify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 12 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 13 procedure procedure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 15 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 16 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 17 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 18 quantified quantify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 19 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 20 assessing assess VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 22 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 23 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 25 global global JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 26 likelihood likelihood NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 27 surface surface NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 28 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 29 changes change NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 30 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 31 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 32 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 456 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 2 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 3 above above RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 5 automated automate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 6 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 8 Python Python NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 9 script script NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 10 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 11 controls control VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 13 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 14 software software NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 16 Vensim Vensim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 457 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 2 conduct conduct VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 4 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 5 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 7 parallel parallel JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 8 computing computing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 9 feature feature NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 11 Vensim Vensim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 12 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 14 Windows Windows NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 15 server server NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 16 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 17 48 48 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 18 cores core NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 458 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 1 After after IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 2 compiling compile VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 4 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 5 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 6 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 7 C++ C++ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 8 code code NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 10 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 11 speeds speed VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 12 up up RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 13 calculations calculation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 14 significantly significantly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 18 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 19 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 20 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 21 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 22 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 23 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 24 0.25 0.25 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 25 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 27 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 28 takes take VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 29 about about RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 30 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 31 hours hour NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 32 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 33 complete complete VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 34 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 35 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 36 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 37 84 84 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 38 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 459 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 1 Full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 2 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 3 code code NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 5 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 6 online online RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 7 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 8 https://github.com/tseyanglim/CovidGlobal https://github.com/tseyanglim/CovidGlobal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 9 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 460 10 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 461 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 462 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 462 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 462 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 462 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 462 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 462 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 463 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 464 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 465 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 465 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 465 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 466 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 466 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 466 3 S3-DATA S3-DATA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 1 PRE pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 2 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 3 PROCESSING processing JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 4 Getting get VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 5 contemporaneous contemporaneous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 7 comprehensive comprehensive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 9 national national JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 10 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 11 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 12 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 14 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 15 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 16 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 17 challenge challenge NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 467 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 2 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 3 widely widely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 5 cited cite VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 6 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 7 aggregators aggregator NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 9 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 10 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 12 Johns Johns NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 13 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 14 Center Center NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 15 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 16 Systems Systems NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 17 Science Science NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 19 Engineering Engineering NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 468 20 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 1 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 2 database database NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 4 31 31 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 7 OurWorldInData OurWorldInData NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 8 portal portal NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 10 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 15 US US NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 17 focused focus VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 18 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 19 Tracking Tracking NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 20 Project Project NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 22 21 21 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 25 get get VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 26 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 27 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 28 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 30 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 31 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 32 official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 33 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 35 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 36 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 37 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 38 US US NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 39 Centers Centers NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 40 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 41 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 42 Control Control NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 43 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 44 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 45 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 46 CDC CDC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 47 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 48 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 49 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 50 European european JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 51 CDC CDC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 53 ECDC ECDC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 55 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 56 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 57 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 58 World World NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 59 Health Health NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 60 Organization Organization NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 61 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 62 WHO who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 63 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 469 64 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 1 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 2 official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 3 agencies agency NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 5 turn turn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 6 get get VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 7 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 8 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 9 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 10 national national JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 12 subnational subnational JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 13 public public JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 14 health health NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 15 authorities authority NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 17 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 18 ultimately ultimately RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 19 rely rely VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 20 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 21 reports report NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 22 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 23 hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 25 clinics clinic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 28 private private JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 29 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 30 public public JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 31 health health NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 32 labs lab NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 470 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 2 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 3 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 5 idiosyncrasies idiosyncrasy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 8 ground ground NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 10 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 11 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 12 collection collection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 13 processes process NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 14 permeate permeate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 15 virtually virtually RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 16 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 17 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 19 aggregate aggregate JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 471 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 1 Most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 2 notably notably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 4 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 5 collection collection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 6 involves involve VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 7 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 8 lags lag VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 10 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 11 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 12 differ differ VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 13 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 14 source source NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 15 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 16 source source NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 472 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 1 Daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 2 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 3 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 4 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 5 reflect reflect VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 7 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 9 actual actual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 10 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 11 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 13 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 14 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 15 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 16 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 17 registered register VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 18 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 19 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 20 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 21 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 22 UK UK NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 23 government government NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 24 sources source NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 26 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 27 instance instance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 28 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 29 use use VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 30 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 31 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 32 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 33 metrics metric NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 473 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 474 1 2 2 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 1 Daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 2 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 3 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 4 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 5 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 6 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 7 include include VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 9 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 10 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 11 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 12 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 14 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 15 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 16 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 18 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 20 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 21 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 22 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 23 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 24 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 25 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 26 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 28 latter latter JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 29 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 30 result result VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 31 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 32 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 33 ' ' `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 34 backfill backfill NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 35 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 36 whereby whereby NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 37 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 38 counts count VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 39 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 40 previous previous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 41 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 42 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 43 continue continue VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 44 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 45 increase increase VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 46 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 47 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 48 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 49 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 50 delayed delay VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 51 confirmations confirmation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 52 come come VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 53 in in RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 475 54 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 1 Daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 2 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 4 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 5 conducted conduct VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 6 could could MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 7 report report VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 8 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 9 collected collect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 11 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 12 processed process VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 14 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 15 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 17 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 18 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 19 mix mix NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 21 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 22 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 24 US US NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 25 CDC CDC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 27 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 28 instance instance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 30 reports report VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 31 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 32 mix mix NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 33 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 34 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 35 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 36 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 37 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 38 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 39 collection collection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 40 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 41 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 42 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 43 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 44 delivery delivery NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 45 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 46 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 47 CDC CDC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 476 48 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 1 3 3 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 2 Aside aside RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 4 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 6 unit unit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 8 measure measure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 10 people people NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 11 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 12 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 13 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 14 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 17 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 18 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 19 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 20 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 21 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 22 lags lag VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 23 involved involve VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 24 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 25 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 477 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 2 addition addition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 4 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 5 idiosyncrasies idiosyncrasy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 7 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 8 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 10 particular particular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 11 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 12 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 13 patchy patchy JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 15 many many JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 16 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 18 even even RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 19 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 20 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 21 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 22 become become VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 23 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 24 widespread widespread JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 478 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 2 WHO who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 3 does do VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 5 report report VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 6 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 7 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 8 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 10 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 11 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 13 nor nor CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 14 does do VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 16 JHU JHU NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 17 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 18 map map NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 19 outside outside IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 21 US US NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 479 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 3 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 4 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 5 sometimes sometimes RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 6 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 7 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 10 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 12 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 13 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 15 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 16 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 17 create create VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 18 occasional occasional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 19 unexpected unexpected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 20 spikes spike NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 22 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 23 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 25 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 27 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 28 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 29 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 30 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 480 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 481 1 4 4 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 1 Depending depend VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 2 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 4 specifics specific NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 6 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 7 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 8 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 10 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 11 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 12 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 13 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 15 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 16 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 18 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 19 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 20 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 21 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 22 disjunction disjunction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 23 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 25 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 482 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 1 Because because IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 2 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 3 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 4 counts count VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 5 largely largely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 6 depend depend VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 8 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 9 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 10 results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 12 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 14 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 15 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 16 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 17 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 18 correlated correlate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 19 -ceteris -ceteris : cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 20 paribus paribus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 22 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 23 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 24 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 25 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 26 lot lot NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 28 samples sample NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 29 collected collect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 30 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 31 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 32 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 33 see see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 34 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 35 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 36 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 37 attributed attribute VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 38 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 39 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 40 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 41 while while IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 42 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 43 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 44 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 45 no no DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 46 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 47 collection collection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 48 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 49 see see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 50 no no DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 51 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 483 52 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 1 But but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 2 since since IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 3 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 4 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 5 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 6 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 7 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 8 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 10 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 13 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 16 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 17 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 18 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 19 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 20 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 21 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 23 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 25 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 26 collection collection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 27 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 28 officially officially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 29 reported report VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 30 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 31 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 32 get get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 33 out out IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 34 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 35 sync sync NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 36 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 37 either either DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 38 direction direction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 484 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 2 problem problem NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 4 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 5 salient salient JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 6 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 7 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 8 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 9 clear clear JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 10 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 11 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 12 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 13 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 14 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 485 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 2 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 5 world world NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 7 particularly particularly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 8 western western JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 9 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 11 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 12 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 13 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 14 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 15 far far RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 16 lower low JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 17 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 18 weekends weekend NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 19 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 20 during during IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 22 week week NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 486 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 2 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 3 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 5 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 6 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 7 show show VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 8 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 9 clear clear JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 10 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 11 cyclical cyclical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 12 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 13 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 14 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 487 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 1 But but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 3 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 4 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 6 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 8 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 9 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 12 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 13 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 14 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 15 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 16 always always RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 17 line line VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 18 up up RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 488 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 2 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 3 explicitly explicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 4 accounts account VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 7 effect effect NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 9 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 10 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 11 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 12 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 14 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 16 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 17 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 18 explicitly explicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 19 model model VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 21 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 22 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 23 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 24 idiosyncrasies idiosyncrasy NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 26 reporting report VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 28 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 29 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 30 vary vary VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 31 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 32 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 33 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 34 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 35 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 489 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 1 Instead instead RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 3 account account VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 5 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 6 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 7 lags lag NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 9 pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 10 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 11 processing processing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 12 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 14 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 15 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 16 align align VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 17 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 18 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 19 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 490 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 2 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 3 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 4 occurs occur VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 6 many many JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 7 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 8 ' ' POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 9 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 10 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 11 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 12 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 13 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 15 where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 16 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 17 presents present VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 18 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 19 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 20 problem problem NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 491 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 2 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 3 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 5 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 6 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 8 behaviourally behaviourally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 9 realistic realistic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 10 part part NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 13 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 14 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 15 generation generation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 16 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 18 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 19 many many JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 20 labs lab NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 22 clinics clinic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 24 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 25 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 26 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 27 sites site NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 28 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 29 instance instance NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 30 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 31 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 32 closed close VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 33 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 34 weekends weekend NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 492 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 2 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 3 provides provide VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 5 window window NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 6 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 8 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 10 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 11 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 14 comparable comparable JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 15 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 16 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 17 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 18 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 19 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 20 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 21 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 22 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 23 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 24 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 493 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 2 linking link VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 3 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 4 confirmations confirmation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 6 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 8 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 9 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 10 explicitly explicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 11 accounts account VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 13 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 14 limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 15 visibility visibility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 16 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 18 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 19 state state NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 494 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 3 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 4 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 5 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 7 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 8 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 9 almost almost RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 10 certainly certainly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 11 reflects reflect VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 12 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 13 limitations limitation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 16 data-2 data-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 17 https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving-the-coronavirus-covid-19/ https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving-the-coronavirus-covid-19/ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 18 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 19 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/previous-testing-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/previous-testing-in-us.html NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 495 20 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 496 1 See see VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 496 2 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 496 3 https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903 https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 496 4 # # NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 496 5 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 497 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 498 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 498 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 498 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 498 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 498 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 498 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 499 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 500 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 501 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 501 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 501 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 3 generation generation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 4 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 6 typically typically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 8 do do VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 9 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 10 hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 11 staffing staffing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 13 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 14 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 16 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 17 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 18 explicitly explicitly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 19 model model VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 502 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 2 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 4 need need VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 5 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 6 address address VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 7 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 8 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 9 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 11 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 12 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 13 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 14 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 15 pre pre NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 16 - - NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 17 processing processing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 18 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 19 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 503 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 1 To to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 2 deal deal VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 3 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 4 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 5 challenges challenge NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 8 developed develop VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 9 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 10 multi multi JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 11 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 12 step step JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 13 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 14 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 15 pre pre VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 16 - - VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 17 process process VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 18 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 19 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 20 before before IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 21 feeding feed VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 22 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 23 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 25 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 26 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 27 calibration calibration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 504 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 505 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 505 2 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 505 3 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 505 4 described describe VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 505 5 below below RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 505 6 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 2 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 3 implemented implement VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 5 Python Python NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 7 largely largely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 8 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 10 Pandas Pandas NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 12 NumPy numpy JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 13 packages package NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 17 code code NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 18 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 19 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 21 full full JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 22 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 23 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 24 https://github.com/tseyanglim/CovidGlobal https://github.com/tseyanglim/CovidGlobal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 506 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 2 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 3 proceeds proceed VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 4 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 5 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 7 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 8 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 10 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 11 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 12 steps step NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 14 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 15 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 507 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 1 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 3 Examine examine VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 4 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 5 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 6 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 7 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 8 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 9 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 10 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 11 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 12 insufficient insufficient JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 14 6 6 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 15 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 16 fewer few JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 17 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 18 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 21 drop drop VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 22 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 23 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 25 dataset dataset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 27 2 2 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 29 Interpolate interpolate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 30 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 31 missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 32 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 33 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 34 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 35 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 36 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 37 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 38 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 39 piecewise piecewise JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 40 cubic cubic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 41 Hermite Hermite NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 42 interpolating interpolate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 43 polynomial polynomial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 45 PCHIP PCHIP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 47 spline spline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 508 48 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 1 If if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 3 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 4 reported reported JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 5 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 6 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 7 before before IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 9 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 10 reported reported JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 11 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 12 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 14 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 15 extrapolate extrapolate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 16 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 17 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 18 back back RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 19 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 21 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 22 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 23 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 24 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 25 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 509 26 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 1 a. a. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 2 Extrapolation Extrapolation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 5 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 7 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 8 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 9 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 11 necessary necessary JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 12 since since IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 13 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 16 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 19 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 20 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 21 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 22 extent extent NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 25 reality reality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 27 reported report VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 28 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 29 require require VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 30 testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 31 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 32 confirmation confirmation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 510 33 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 511 1 b. b. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 511 2 PCHIP PCHIP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 1 spline spline JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 2 interpolation interpolation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 3 yields yield VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 4 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 5 continuous continuous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 6 monotonic monotonic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 7 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 8 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 9 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 10 continuous continuous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 11 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 12 derivative derivative NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 14 thus thus RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 15 avoiding avoid VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 16 generating generate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 17 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 18 anomalous anomalous JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 19 rapid rapid JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 20 change change NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 22 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 23 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 24 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 512 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 513 1 c. c. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 2 used use VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 4 implementation implementation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 6 PCHIP PCHIP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 7 interpolation interpolation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 8 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 10 widely widely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 11 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 12 SciPy scipy JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 13 package package NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 15 Python Python NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 514 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 1 6 6 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 2 3 3 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 4 Calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 5 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 6 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 7 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 8 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 9 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 10 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 11 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 12 less less RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 14 preceding precede VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 15 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 16 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 17 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 18 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 19 total total NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 515 20 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 1 4 4 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 3 Examine examine VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 5 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 6 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 7 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 8 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 9 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 10 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 11 estimate estimate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 12 how how WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 13 much much JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 16 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 17 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 18 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 19 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 20 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 21 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 22 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 23 interpolated interpolate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 24 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 25 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 26 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 516 27 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 1 a. a. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 2 Daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 3 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 4 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 5 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 6 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 8 mostly mostly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 9 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 10 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 11 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 12 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 13 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 14 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 15 include include VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 16 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 17 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 18 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 19 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 20 occasional occasional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 21 irregularities irregularity NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 22 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 23 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 24 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 25 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 26 reflected reflect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 27 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 28 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 29 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 30 counts count VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 517 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 1 Conversely conversely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 3 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 4 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 5 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 6 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 7 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 8 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 9 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 10 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 11 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 12 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 13 largely largely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 14 interpolated interpolate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 15 would would MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 16 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 17 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 18 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 19 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 20 fully fully RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 21 reproduce reproduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 22 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 23 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 24 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 25 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 26 irregularities irregularity NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 27 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 28 since since IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 30 interpolation interpolation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 31 produces produce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 32 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 33 relatively relatively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 34 smooth smooth JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 35 function function NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 518 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 519 1 b. b. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 2 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 3 rule rule NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 5 thumb thumb NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 8 examine examine VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 10 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 11 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 12 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 15 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 16 half half NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 19 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 20 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 22 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 23 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 24 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 25 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 26 latest late JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 27 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 520 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 1 If if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 2 fewer few JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 3 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 4 half half PDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 6 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 8 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 9 window window NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 10 have have VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 11 original original JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 12 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 13 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 14 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 17 consider consider VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 19 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 21 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 22 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 23 ' ' `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 24 sparse sparse JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 25 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 26 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 27 requiring require VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 28 further further JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 29 processing processing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 521 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 522 1 5 5 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 2 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 3 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 4 argued argue VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 5 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 6 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 7 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 8 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 9 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 11 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 12 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 13 scale scale NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 14 human human JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 15 behaviour behaviour NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 16 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 17 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 18 drive drive VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 19 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 20 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 21 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 22 cyclicality cyclicality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 23 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 25 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 26 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 28 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 29 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 30 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 33 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 34 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 35 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 36 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 37 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 38 wrong wrong JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 39 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 40 consider consider VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 41 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 42 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 43 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 44 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 45 artefacts artefact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 46 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 47 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 48 datageneration datageneration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 49 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 523 50 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 4 find find VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 6 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 8 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 9 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 10 reasons reason NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 524 11 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 1 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 3 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 4 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 6 human human JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 7 interactions interaction NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 9 largely largely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 10 driven drive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 11 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 13 work work NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 15 school school NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 16 week week NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 18 weekend weekend NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 20 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 21 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 22 been be VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 23 significantly significantly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 24 attenuated attenuate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 25 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 26 widespread widespread JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 27 adoption adoption NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 29 social social JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 30 distancing distance VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 31 measures measure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 32 around around IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 33 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 34 world world NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 525 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 1 Second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 2 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 3 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 4 importantly importantly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 6 variation variation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 8 incubation incubation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 9 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 10 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 11 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 12 before before IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 13 development development NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 15 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 16 means mean VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 17 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 18 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 19 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 20 cyclicality cyclicality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 23 timing timing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 25 initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 26 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 27 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 28 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 29 further further RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 30 attenuated attenuate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 31 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 32 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 33 timing timing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 34 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 35 symptom symptom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 36 development development NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 526 37 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 3 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 4 logic logic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 6 wide wide JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 7 variability variability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 10 delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 11 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 12 symptom symptom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 13 development development NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 14 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 15 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 16 means mean VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 17 there there EX cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 18 should should MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 19 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 20 minimal minimal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 21 cyclicality cyclicality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 22 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 23 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 24 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 26 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 28 timing timing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 30 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 32 meaning mean VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 33 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 34 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 35 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 36 visible visible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 37 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 39 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 40 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 41 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 42 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 43 measurement measurement NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 44 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 45 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 46 lags lag VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 527 47 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 528 1 6 6 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 528 2 https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.interpolate.PchipInterpolator.html https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.interpolate.PchipInterpolator.html NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 528 3 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 529 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 530 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 530 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 530 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 530 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 530 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 530 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 531 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 532 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 533 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 533 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 533 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 534 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 534 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 534 3 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 534 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 1 If if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 3 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 4 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 5 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 6 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 7 sparse sparse JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 9 account account VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 11 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 12 potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 13 lag lag NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 14 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 15 other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 16 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 17 delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 18 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 19 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 20 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 21 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 22 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 24 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 25 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 26 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 27 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 28 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 29 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 30 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 31 shift shift NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 32 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 33 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 34 estimate estimate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 35 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 36 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 37 lags lag NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 38 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 39 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 40 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 41 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 42 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 43 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 44 shift shift VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 45 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 46 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 47 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 48 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 49 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 50 accordingly accordingly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 535 51 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 2 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 3 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 4 shift shift NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 5 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 6 ensures ensure VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 7 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 8 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 9 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 10 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 11 present present JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 12 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 14 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 15 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 16 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 17 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 18 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 19 reflected reflect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 22 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 23 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 24 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 25 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 26 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 27 aligned align VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 28 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 29 best well RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 30 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 31 possible possible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 32 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 33 date date NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 35 thereby thereby RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 36 accounting account VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 37 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 39 fact fact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 40 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 41 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 42 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 43 generated generate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 44 reported report VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 45 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 46 depends depend VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 47 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 48 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 49 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 50 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 51 no no DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 52 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 53 lag lag VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 54 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 55 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 56 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 57 result result VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 536 58 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 537 1 a. a. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 1 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 3 identify identify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 5 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 6 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 9 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 10 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 12 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 13 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 14 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 16 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 17 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 18 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 19 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 20 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 21 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 22 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 23 trend trend NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 24 decomposition decomposition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 25 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 26 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 27 LOESS LOESS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 29 STL STL NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 31 procedure procedure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 538 32 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 1 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 2 i. i. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 3 STL STL NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 4 deconstructs deconstruct VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 5 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 6 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 7 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 8 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 9 several several JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 10 components component NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 12 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 14 trend trend NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 16 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 17 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 18 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 19 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 20 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 21 specified specified JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 22 period period NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 24 weekly weekly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 26 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 27 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 28 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 30 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 31 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 32 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 33 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 34 residual residual NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 539 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 1 STL STL NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 3 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 4 additive additive NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 5 decomposition decomposition NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 10 advantage advantage NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 12 allowing allow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 14 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 15 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 16 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 17 change change VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 18 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 19 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 21 rather rather RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 22 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 23 being be VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 24 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 25 fixed fix VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 26 pattern pattern NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 27 repeated repeat VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 28 exactly exactly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 29 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 30 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 31 whole whole JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 32 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 33 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 540 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 541 1 ii ii NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 541 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 2 used use VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 4 STL STL NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 5 implementation implementation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 8 Statsmodels Statsmodels NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 9 package package NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 11 Python Python NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 542 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 543 1 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 544 1 b. b. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 544 2 Shift Shift NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 1 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 2 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 3 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 4 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 5 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 6 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 7 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 8 week week NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 9 range range NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 11 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 12 -2 -2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 13 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 14 +4 +4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 15 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 17 lag lag NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 18 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 19 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 20 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 21 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 22 reporting report VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 25 calculating calculate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 27 cross cross NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 28 - - NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 29 correlation correlation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 30 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 31 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 32 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 33 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 34 component component NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 35 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 36 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 37 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 38 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 39 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 40 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 41 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 42 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 43 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 44 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 45 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 46 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 47 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 48 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 49 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 50 shift shift NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 545 51 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 1 c. c. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 2 Identify identify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 4 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 5 shift shift NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 6 within within IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 8 range range NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 9 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 10 maximizes maximize VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 12 cross cross NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 13 - - NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 14 correlation correlation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 15 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 17 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 18 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 20 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 21 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 22 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 24 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 25 shift shift VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 27 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 28 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 29 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 30 accordingly accordingly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 546 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 547 1 6 6 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 547 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 1 If if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 3 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 4 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 5 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 6 sparse sparse JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 9 spline spline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 10 interpolation interpolation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 11 will will MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 12 generally generally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 13 cut cut VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 14 out out RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 15 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 17 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 18 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 19 cyclicality cyclicality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 20 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 21 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 22 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 23 present present JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 548 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 1 Visual visual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 2 inspection inspection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 4 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 5 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 6 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 8 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 9 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 10 sparse sparse JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 11 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 12 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 13 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 14 shows show VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 15 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 17 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 18 spikes spike NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 20 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 21 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 22 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 23 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 24 uncommon uncommon JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 26 without without IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 27 necessarily necessarily RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 28 having have VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 29 concomitant concomitant JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 30 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 31 spikes spike NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 32 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 33 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 34 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 35 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 36 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 549 37 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 2 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 4 rather rather RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 5 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 6 attempting attempt VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 8 eliminate eliminate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 9 differences difference NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 11 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 12 lags lag VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 13 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 15 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 17 shift shift NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 18 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 19 described describe VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 20 above above RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 22 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 23 instead instead RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 24 apply apply VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 25 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 26 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 27 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 28 smoothing smooth VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 29 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 30 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 31 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 32 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 33 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 34 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 35 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 36 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 37 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 38 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 39 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 40 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 41 order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 42 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 43 reduce reduce VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 44 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 45 cyclicality cyclicality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 46 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 47 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 48 spikes spike NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 550 49 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 2 smoothing smoothing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 3 allows allow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 5 calibration calibration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 8 main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 9 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 10 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 11 focus focus VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 12 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 13 matching match VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 15 underlying underlie VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 16 trends trend NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 19 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 551 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 2 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 3 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 5 whether whether IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 6 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 7 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 8 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 9 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 10 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 11 sparse sparse JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 12 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 13 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 15 whether whether IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 16 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 18 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 19 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 20 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 21 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 22 smoothed smooth VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 23 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 24 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 26 since since IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 27 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 28 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 29 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 30 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 31 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 32 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 33 reflective reflective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 34 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 35 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 36 lags lag VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 37 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 38 captured capture VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 39 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 40 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 41 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 42 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 43 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 44 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 45 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 46 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 47 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 48 smoothed smooth VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 49 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 50 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 51 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 52 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 552 53 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 553 1 8) 8) NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 2 smoothing smoothing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 3 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 4 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 5 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 6 designed design VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 7 first first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 8 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 9 conserve conserve VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 11 total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 12 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 14 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 15 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 17 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 19 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 21 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 22 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 25 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 26 second second JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 27 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 28 preserve preserve VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 29 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 30 degree degree NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 31 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 32 variation variation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 33 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 34 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 35 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 36 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 37 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 38 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 39 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 40 noise noise NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 41 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 42 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 43 informative informative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 44 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 45 retaining retain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 46 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 47 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 48 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 49 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 50 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 51 calibration calibration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 52 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 53 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 54 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 554 55 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 555 1 a. a. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 1 Starting start VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 2 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 3 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 5 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 6 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 8 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 9 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 11 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 12 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 13 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 15 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 16 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 17 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 18 minimum minimum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 19 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 21 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 22 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 23 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 25 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 26 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 28 rolling rolling JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 29 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 30 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 31 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 32 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 33 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 35 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 36 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 37 centred centre VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 38 moving move VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 39 window window NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 40 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 41 11 11 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 42 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 556 43 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 1 b. b. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 2 Calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 4 residual residual NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 5 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 6 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 7 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 8 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 9 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 10 point point NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 13 rolling rolling JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 14 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 15 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 16 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 17 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 19 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 20 divide divide VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 21 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 22 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 23 square square JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 24 root root NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 25 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 26 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 27 rolling rolling JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 28 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 30 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 31 get get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 32 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 33 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 34 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 35 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 36 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 37 i. i. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 38 Dividing divide VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 39 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 40 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 41 square square JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 42 root root NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 43 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 44 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 45 rolling rolling JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 46 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 47 reflects reflect VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 48 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 49 heuristic heuristic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 50 assumption assumption NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 51 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 52 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 53 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 54 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 55 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 56 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 57 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 58 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 59 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 60 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 61 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 62 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 63 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 64 behaves behave VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 65 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 66 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 67 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 68 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 69 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 70 StDev StDev NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 71 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 72 Pois( Pois( NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 557 73 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 558 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 559 1   NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 559 2 0.5 0.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 559 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 559 4 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 1 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 4 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 5 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 6 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 8 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 9 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 10 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 11 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 12 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 13 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 14 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 15 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 17 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 19 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 560 20 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 561 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 562 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 562 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 563 1 24.20139451 24.20139451 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 563 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 563 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 564 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 564 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 564 3 ii ii NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 564 4 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 2 functional functional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 3 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 6 adjustment adjustment NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 7 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 8 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 9 both both CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 10 absolute absolute JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 11 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 12 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 13 magnitudes magnitude NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 15 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 16 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 18 rolling rolling JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 19 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 20 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 21 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 22 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 23 weight weight NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 24 -large -large NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 25 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 26 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 27 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 28 absolute absolute JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 29 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 30 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 31 small small JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 33 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 34 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 35 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 36 noisier noisy JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 38 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 39 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 40 ignored ignore VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 42 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 43 neither neither CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 44 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 45 they -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 46 outweigh outweigh VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 47 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 48 absolute absolute NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 49 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 50 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 51 smaller small JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 52 relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 54 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 55 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 56 occur occur VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 57 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 58 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 59 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 60 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 61 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 62 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 63 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 64 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 65 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 66 since since IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 67 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 68 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 69 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 70 time time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 71 series series NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 72 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 73 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 74 growing grow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 75 significantly significantly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 76 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 77 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 78 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 79 horizon horizon NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 80 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 81 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 82 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 565 83 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 1 c. c. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 2 Calculate Calculate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 3 thresholds threshold NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 5 identifying identify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 6 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 8 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 11 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 12 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 13 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 15 median median NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 18 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 19 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 21 ± ± CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 22 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 23 median median JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 24 absolute absolute JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 25 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 27 MAD MAD NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 29 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 30 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 31 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 32 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 566 33 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 1 i. i. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 2 Using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 4 median median JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 5 absolute absolute JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 6 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 8 determine determine VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 9 thresholds threshold NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 11 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 13 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 14 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 15 robust robust JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 16 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 17 outliers outlier NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 19 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 20 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 22 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 23 do do VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 24 arise arise VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 25 occasionally occasionally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 26 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 28 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 567 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 568 1 ii ii NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 568 2 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 2 threshold threshold NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 3 width width NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 5 one one CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 6 MAD mad NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 7 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 8 relatively relatively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 9 narrow narrow JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 11 outlier outlier JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 12 detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 14 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 15 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 16 inspection inspection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 19 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 20 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 21 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 22 about about RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 23 right right JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 24 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 25 identifying identify VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 26 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 28 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 29 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 30 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 31 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 32 caused cause VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 33 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 34 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 35 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 36 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 37 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 38 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 39 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 40 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 41 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 42 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 43 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 44 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 45 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 46 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 47 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 48 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 49 outliers outlier NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 569 50 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 570 1 d. d. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 1 Once once IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 2 thresholds threshold NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 4 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 6 iterate iterate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 7 through through IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 9 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 10 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 13 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 14 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 15 first first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 16 forward forward RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 18 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 19 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 20 oldest old JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 21 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 22 newest new JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 24 filling fill VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 25 in in RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 26 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 27 ' ' `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 28 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 29 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 31 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 32 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 33 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 34 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 35 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 36 below below IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 37 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 38 lower low JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 39 threshold threshold NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 41 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 42 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 43 backward backward RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 44 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 45 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 46 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 47 newest new JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 48 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 49 oldest old JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 50 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 51 smoothing smooth VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 52 out out RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 53 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 54 ' ' `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 55 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 56 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 57 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 58 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 59 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 60 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 61 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 62 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 63 above above IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 64 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 65 upper upper JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 66 threshold threshold NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 67 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 68 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 69 remain remain VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 571 70 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 1 Repeat repeat VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 3 process process NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 4 until until IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 5 all all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 6 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 7 points point NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 8 ' ' POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 9 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 10 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 11 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 12 within within IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 13 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 14 originally originally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 15 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 16 thresholds threshold NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 17 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 19 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 20 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 572 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 573 1 i. i. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 2 infer infer VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 3 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 5 underlying underlie VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 6 processes process NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 7 generating generate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 8 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 9 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 10 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 11 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 12 somewhat somewhat RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 13 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 574 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 1 Dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 2 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 3 generally generally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 5 result result NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 7 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 8 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 11 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 13 e.g. e.g. RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 14 lower low JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 15 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 17 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 18 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 19 longer long JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 20 lags lag VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 21 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 22 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 23 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 24 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 25 occur occur VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 26 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 27 weekends weekend NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 575 28 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 1 Peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 2 arise arise VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 4 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 5 extent extent NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 6 due due IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 9 same same JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 10 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 11 processes process NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 13 e.g. e.g. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 14 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 15 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 16 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 17 occur occur VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 18 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 19 weekends weekend NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 20 only only RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 21 being be VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 22 recorded record VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 23 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 25 start start NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 26 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 27 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 28 next next JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 29 week week NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 576 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 1 However however RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 3 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 4 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 6 especially especially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 7 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 8 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 10 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 11 result result VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 12 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 13 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 14 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 15 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 16 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 17 reporting reporting NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 19 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 20 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 21 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 22 batches batch NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 23 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 24 tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 25 being be VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 26 held hold VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 27 up up RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 28 due due IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 29 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 30 logistical logistical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 31 issues issue NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 32 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 33 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 34 getting get VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 35 processed process VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 36 all all RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 37 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 38 once once RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 577 39 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 2 such such PDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 4 smoothing smoothing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 5 procedure procedure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 6 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 7 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 8 vs. vs. IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 9 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 10 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 11 slightly slightly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 12 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 578 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 579 1 e. e. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 2 dip dip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 3 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 4 filling fill VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 5 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 6 fills fill VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 8 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 10 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 11 dip dip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 13 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 14 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 15 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 16 smoothing smoothing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 17 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 19 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 20 redistributing redistribute VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 21 data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 22 counts count VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 23 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 24 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 25 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 26 multinomial multinomial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 27 draw draw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 28 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 30 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 31 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 32 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 33 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 34 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 35 dip dip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 580 36 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 1 i. i. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 2 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 4 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 6 amount amount NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 8 fill fill VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 9 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 10 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 12 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 14 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 15 smoothing smoothing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 16 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 17 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 20 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 21 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 22 0.67 0.67 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 23 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 24 ii ii NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 581 25 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 1 Calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 3 amount amount NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 4 redistributed redistribute VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 5 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 6 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 9 following following JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 10 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 12 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 14 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 15 +1 +1 -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 17 +2 +2 NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 19 … … NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 20 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 21 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 22 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 23 7 7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 24 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 25 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 26 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 27 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 28 multinomial multinomial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 29 distribution distribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 30 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 31 follows follow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 32 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 33 Where where WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 34 +1 +1 ADD cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 35 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 36 +2 +2 NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 37 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 38 … … NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 39 +7 +7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 40 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 41 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 42 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 43 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 44 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 45 iii iii NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 582 46 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 2 formulation formulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 3 allows allow VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 4 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 5 redistribution redistribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 7 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 10 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 11 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 12 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 13 whose whose WP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 14 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 15 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 16 exceed exceed VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 18 focal focal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 19 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 20 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 21 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 22 deviation deviation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 24 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 25 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 26 more more JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 27 redistribution redistribution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 28 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 29 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 30 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 31 higher high JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 32 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 33 deviations deviation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 583 35 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 584 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 585 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 585 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 585 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 585 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 585 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 585 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 586 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 587 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 588 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 588 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 588 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 589 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 589 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 589 3 f. f. NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 2 peak peak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 3 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 4 smoothing smooth VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 5 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 6 similarly similarly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 7 redistributes redistribute VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 8 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 9 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 11 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 12 peak peak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 14 specified specify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 15 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 17 smoothing smoothing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 18 factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 20 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 22 preceding precede VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 23 several several JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 24 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 25 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 26 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 27 another another DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 28 multinomial multinomial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 29 draw draw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 590 30 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 1 i. i. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 2 First first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 4 calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 6 amount amount NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 8 redistribute redistribute VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 9 similarly similarly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 10 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 12 dip dip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 13 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 14 filling fill VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 15 step step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 17 ii ii NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 591 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 1 Calculate calculate VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 3 amount amount NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 4 redistributed redistribute VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 6 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 9 preceding precede VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 10 several several JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 12 14 14 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 14 _SP cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 15 iii iii NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 592 16 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 1 This this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 2 formulation formulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 3 redistributes redistribute VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 4 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 6 preceding precede VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 7 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 8 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 9 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 11 calculated calculate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 12 rolling roll VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 13 mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 14 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 16 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 17 days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 19 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 21 assumption assumption NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 22 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 23 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 24 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 25 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 26 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 27 generate generate VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 28 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 29 spikes spike NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 30 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 31 counts count NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 32 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 33 essentially essentially RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 34 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 35 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 36 equally equally RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 37 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 38 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 39 affect affect VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 40 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 41 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 42 unit unit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 43 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 44 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 45 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 46 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 47 several several JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 48 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 49 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 50 span span NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 593 51 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 1 As as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 2 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 5 probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 6 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 8 unit unit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 9 showing show VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 10 up up RP cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 12 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 13 spike spike NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 14 due due IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 15 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 16 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 17 delays delay NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 18 comes come VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 19 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 20 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 21 given give VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 22 preceding precede VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 23 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 24 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 25 simply simply RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 26 proportional proportional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 27 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 28 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 29 expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 30 count count NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 31 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 32 that that DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 33 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 34 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 35 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 36 approximated approximate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 37 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 39 rolling rolling JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 40 mean mean NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 594 41 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 595 1 g. g. NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 1 By by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 2 filling fill VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 3 dips dip NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 4 first first RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 5 before before IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 6 smoothing smooth VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 7 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 10 combined combined JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 11 algorithm algorithm NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 12 largely largely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 13 addresses address VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 14 any any DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 15 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 16 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 17 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 18 due due JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 19 primarily primarily RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 20 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 21 weekly weekly JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 22 cycles cycle NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 23 during during IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 24 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 25 dip dip NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 26 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 27 filling fill VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 28 stage stage NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 30 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 31 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 32 remaining remain VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 33 peaks peak NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 34 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 35 get get VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 36 smoothed smooth VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 37 tend tend NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 38 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 39 be be VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 40 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 41 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 42 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 43 irregular irregular JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 44 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 45 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 596 46 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 597 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 598 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 598 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 598 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 598 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 598 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 598 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 599 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 600 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 601 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 601 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 601 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 3 Table Table NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 4 S3 S3 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 5 reports report VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 6 two two CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 7 quality quality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 9 fit fit JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 10 metrics metric NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 12 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 13 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 15 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 16 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 17 series series NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 602 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 603 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 603 2 first first JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 603 3 four four CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 603 4 columns column NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 603 5 report report NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 604 1 Mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 604 2 Absolute absolute JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 604 3 Error error NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 1 Normalized normalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 2 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 3 Mean Mean NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 5 MAEN MAEN NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 7 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 8 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 9 last last JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 10 four four CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 11 report report NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 13 R R NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 14 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 15 Squared Squared NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 16 measures measure NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 605 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 1 Errors error NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 2 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 3 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 4 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 6 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 7 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 8 followed follow VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 9 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 10 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 13 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 14 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 15 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 16 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 18 flow flow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 19 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 606 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 607 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 608 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 608 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 608 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 608 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 608 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 608 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 609 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 610 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 611 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 612 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 612 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 612 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 3 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 4 S7 S7 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 5 shows show VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 7 visualization visualization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 9 fit fit NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 10 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 11 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 13 simulations simulation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 14 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 15 all all PDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 17 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 18 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 19 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 20 sample sample NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 613 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 1 These these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 2 graphs graph NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 3 include include VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 4 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 6 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 7 outputs output NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 9 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 10 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 11 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 13 blue blue JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 14 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 15 left leave VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 16 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 18 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 19 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 20 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 22 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 23 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 25 red red JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 26 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 27 right right JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 28 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 29 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 30 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 31 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 32 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 34 starting start VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 35 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 36 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 37 beginning beginning NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 38 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 39 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 41 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 42 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 43 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 44 until until IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 45 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 46 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 614 47 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 2 S7 S7 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 3 -Comparison -Comparison NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 5 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 7 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 615 8 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 1 New new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 2 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 4 blue blue JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 6 left left JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 7 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 10 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 11 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 12 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 15 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 16 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 18 red red JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 20 right right JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 21 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 616 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 617 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 618 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 618 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 618 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 618 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 618 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 618 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 619 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 620 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 621 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 622 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 622 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 622 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 3 Estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 5 true true JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 6 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 7 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 9 blue blue JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 10 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 11 left leave VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 12 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 13 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 14 millions million NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 16 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 17 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 19 red red JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 20 ; ; : cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 21 right right JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 22 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 23 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 24 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 26 across across IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 27 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 28 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 29 up up IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 30 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 31 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 32 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 33 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 34 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 35 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 36 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 37 S8 S8 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 623 38 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 2 S9 s9 NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 3 shows show VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 5 ratio ratio NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 7 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 8 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 9 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 11 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 12 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 13 fatalities fatality NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 14 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 15 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 16 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 17 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 19 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 20 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 21 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 22 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 24 i.e. i.e. FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 25 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 26 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 27 historical historical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 28 baseline baseline NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 29 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 30 accounted account VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 31 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 32 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 33 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 34 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 35 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 36 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 37 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 38 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 39 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 40 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 41 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 42 such such JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 43 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 44 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 45 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 46 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 624 47 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 625 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 626 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 626 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 626 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 626 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 626 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 626 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 627 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 628 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 629 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 630 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 630 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 630 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 3 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 4 S9 S9 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 5 -Ratio -ratio NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 7 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 8 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 9 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 10 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 11 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 12 excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 13 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 631 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 632 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 633 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 633 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 633 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 633 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 633 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 633 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 634 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 635 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 636 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 637 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 637 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 637 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 3 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 4 S10 S10 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 5 shows show VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 7 initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 8 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 9 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 11 RE re NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 13 occurring occur VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 15 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 16 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 638 17 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 1 Reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 2 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 4 changing change VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 5 dynamically dynamically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 6 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 7 transient transient JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 8 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 9 may may MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 10 lead lead VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 12 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 13 than than IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 14 equilibrium equilibrium JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 15 numbers number NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 16 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 17 maximum maximum JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 18 RE re NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 19 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 20 were be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 21 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 639 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 2 therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 3 use use VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 5 90 90 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 6 th th XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 7 percentile percentile NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 9 simulated simulated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 11 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 12 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 13 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 14 graph graph NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 640 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 1 Also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 2 note note VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 3 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 4 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 5 credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 6 intervals interval NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 8 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 9 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 11 partly partly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 12 coming come VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 13 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 14 changes change NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 15 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 16 what what WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 17 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 18 included include VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 19 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 20 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 21 90 90 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 22 th th XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 641 23 percentile percentile NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 2 sometimes sometimes RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 4 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 5 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 6 highest high JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 7 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 8 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 9 sometimes sometimes RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 11 does do VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 12 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 15 as as RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 16 well well RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 17 as as IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 19 inherent inherent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 20 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 21 when when WRB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 22 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 23 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 24 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 25 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 26 behavioral behavioral JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 27 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 28 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 29 responses response NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 30 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 31 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 32 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 33 one one PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 34 can can MD cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 35 have have VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 36 smaller small JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 37 initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 38 RE re NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 39 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 40 smaller small JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 41 response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 42 functions function NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 43 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 44 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 45 larger large JJR cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 46 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 47 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 48 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 50 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 51 stay stay VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 52 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 53 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 54 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 55 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 642 56 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 2 S10 s10 NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 3 -Maximum -maximum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 4 reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 5 number number NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 6 RE re NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 8 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 9 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 10 's 's POS cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 11 outbreak outbreak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 643 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 644 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 645 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 645 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 645 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 645 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 645 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 645 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 646 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 647 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 648 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 649 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 649 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 649 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 3 Parameter Parameter NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 4 estimates estimate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 5 Figure Figure NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 6 S11 S11 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 7 reports report VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 8 most most RBS cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 9 likely likely JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 10 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 13 vector vector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 15 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 17 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 20 θi θi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 650 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 2 figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 3 also also RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 4 includes include VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 5 95 95 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 6 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 7 credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 8 intervals interval NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 10 these these DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 11 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 12 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 651 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 652 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 653 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 653 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 653 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 653 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 653 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 653 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 654 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 655 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 656 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 657 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 657 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 657 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 658 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 658 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 658 3 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 659 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 660 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 660 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 660 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 660 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 660 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 660 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 661 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 662 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 663 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 664 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 664 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 664 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 665 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 665 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 665 3 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 666 1 S11 S11 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 1 -Parameter -parameter IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 3 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 4 95 95 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 5 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 6 credible credible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 7 regions region NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 9 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 10 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 11 specific specific JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 12 parameters parameter NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 13 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 667 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 668 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 669 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 669 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 669 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 669 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 669 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 669 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 670 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 671 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 672 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 673 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 673 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 673 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 674 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 674 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 674 3 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 675 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 676 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 676 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 676 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 676 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 676 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 676 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 677 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 678 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 679 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 680 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 680 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 680 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 3 Figure Figure NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 4 S12 S12 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 5 reports report VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 6 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 7 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 8 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 9 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 11 new new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 12 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 13 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 14 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 15 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 16 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 17 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 18 following follow VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 19 assumptions assumption NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 21 consistent consistent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 22 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 23 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 24 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 25 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 26 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 27 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 28 -D -d CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 29 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 30 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 31 main main JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 32 paper paper NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 681 34 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 2 shift shift VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 3 both both DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 4 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 5 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 6 contact contact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 7 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 9 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 10 risks risk NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 12 arguably arguably RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 13 more more RBR cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 14 realistic realistic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 15 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 16 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 17 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 18 ones one NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 19 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 20 capture capture VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 21 some some DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 22 improvements improvement NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 23 but but CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 24 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 25 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 26 completely completely RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 27 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 28 behavior behavior NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 682 29 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 3 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 4 July July NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 5 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 6 st st NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 7 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 9 shift shift VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 10 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 11 rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 13 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 14 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 15 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 16 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 17 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 19 current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 20 rates rate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 21 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 22 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 23 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 24 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 25 day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 27 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 28 increases increase VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 29 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 30 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 31 most most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 32 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 33 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 34 reduces reduce VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 35 it -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 36 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 37 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 38 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 683 40 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 3 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 5 contacts contact NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 6 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 7 perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 8 risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 9 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 10 shifted shift VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 12 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 13 % % NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 16 way way NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 17 between between IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 18 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 19 country country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 20 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 21 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 22 values value NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 24 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 25 high high JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 26 value value NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 27 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 28 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 29 that that WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 30 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 684 31 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 685 1 Figure figure NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 685 2 S12 S12 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 1 -Country -country NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 2 level level NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 3 projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 4 until until IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 5 Spring Spring NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 6 2021 2021 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 686 7 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 1 Daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 2 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 5 thousands thousand NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 7 blue blue JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 9 left leave VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 10 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 13 daily daily JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 14 deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 16 red red JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 18 right right JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 19 axis axis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 21 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 22 graphed graph VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 23 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 687 24 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 1 CC CC NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 2 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 3 BY BY NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 5 ND ND NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 7 International international JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 688 8 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 689 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-284945-837qlk8y 689 2 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 689 3 made make VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 689 4 available available JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 689 5 under under IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 689 6 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 1 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 2 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 3 author author NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 5 funder funder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 7 who who WP cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 8 has have VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 9 granted grant VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 11 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 12 license license NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 13 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 14 display display VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 15 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 16 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 17 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 690 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 2 which which WDT cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 3 was be VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 5 certified certify VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 7 peer peer NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 8 review review NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 691 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 2 copyright copyright NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 3 holder holder NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 5 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 6 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 7 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 8 version version NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 9 posted post VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 10 June June NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 11 26 26 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 13 2020 2020 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 14 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 692 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 693 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451 NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 693 2 doi doi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 693 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 2 preprint preprint NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 3 Spread Spread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 5 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 6 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 7 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 9 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 10 Icelandic icelandic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 11 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 12 Clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 13 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 15 imaging imaging NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 16 manifestations manifestation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 18 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 19 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 20 novel novel JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 21 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 22 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 24 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 694 26 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 2 multi multi JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 3 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 4 center center JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 5 study study NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 7 Wenzhou Wenzhou NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 8 city city NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 9 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 10 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 11 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 12 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 13 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 14 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 15 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 16 types type NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 18 clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 19 specimens specimen NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 20 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 22 chest chest NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 23 CT CT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 24 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 25 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 26 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 27 comparison comparison NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 28 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 29 RT RT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 30 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 31 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 32 Stability Stability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 33 issues issue NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 34 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 35 RT RT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 36 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 37 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 38 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 39 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 40 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 41 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 42 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 43 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 44 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 45 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 46 clinically clinically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 47 diagnosed diagnose VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 48 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 49 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 50 Weather Weather NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 51 Conditions Conditions NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 52 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 53 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 54 Transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 55 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 56 Estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 57 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 58 Projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 695 59 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 2 Clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 3 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 5 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 6 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 7 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 9 China China NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 10 Characteristics Characteristics NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 13 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 14 lessons lesson NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 15 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 17 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 18 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 19 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 21 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 23 outbreak outbreak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 25 China China NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 26 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 27 summary summary NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 29 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 30 report report NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 31 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 32 72 72 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 33 314 314 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 34 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 35 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 36 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 37 Chinese Chinese NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 38 Center Center NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 39 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 40 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 41 Control Control NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 43 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 44 COVID-19 COVID-19 , cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 45 exacerbating exacerbate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 46 inequalities inequality NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 47 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 48 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 49 US US NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 50 Suppression Suppression NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 51 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 52 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 53 outbreak outbreak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 54 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 55 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 56 municipality municipality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 57 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 58 Vo Vo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 59 Estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 60 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 61 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 62 proportion proportion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 63 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 64 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 65 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 66 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 67 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 68 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 69 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 70 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 71 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 72 board board NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 73 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 74 Diamond Diamond NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 75 Princess Princess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 76 cruise cruise NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 77 ship ship NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 78 Universal Universal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 79 Screening Screening NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 80 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 81 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 82 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 83 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 84 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 85 Women Women NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 86 Admitted admit VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 87 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 88 Delivery Delivery NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 89 Incubation Incubation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 90 Period Period NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 91 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 92 Other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 93 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 94 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 95 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 96 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 97 Novel Novel NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 98 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 99 Infections Infections NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 100 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 101 Right Right NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 102 Truncation truncation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 103 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 104 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 105 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 106 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 107 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 108 Publicly publicly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 109 Available Available NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 110 Case Case NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 111 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 112 Modeling model VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 113 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 114 rework rework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 115 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 116 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 117 capturing capture VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 118 multiple multiple JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 119 defects defect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 120 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 121 task task NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 122 Data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 123 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 124 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 125 regression regression NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 126 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 127 multilevel multilevel JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 128 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 129 hierarchical hierarchical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 130 models model NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 131 Accelerating accelerate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 132 Markov Markov NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 133 chain chain NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 134 Monte Monte NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 135 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 136 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 137 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 138 differential differential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 139 evolution evolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 140 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 141 self self NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 142 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 143 adaptive adaptive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 144 randomized randomized JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 145 subspace subspace NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 696 146 sampling sampling NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 1 Most Most JJS cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 2 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 3 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 4 self self NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 5 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 6 explanatory explanatory JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 697 7 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 2 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 3 [ [ -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 4 … … NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 6 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 7 notation notation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 8 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 9 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 10 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 11 subscript subscript VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 12 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 13 over over IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 14 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 15 set set NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 17 members member NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 698 18 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 1 For for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 2 example example NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 4 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 5 subscript subscript NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 6 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 7 Rgn Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 8 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 9 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 10 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 12 identify identify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 13 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 14 countries country NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 699 15 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 3 Rgn Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 5 indicates indicate VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 6 that that IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 7 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 8 variable variable NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 9 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 10 defined define VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 11 separately separately RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 13 each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 14 member member NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 17 set set NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 18 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 19 Rgn Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 20 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 700 21 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 1 Other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 2 subscript subscript NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 3 ranges range NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 4 used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 7 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 8 are be VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 10 expnt expnt NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 12 Used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 13 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 14 numerically numerically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 15 solving solve VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 17 probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 19 missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 20 symptoms symptom NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 21 equation equation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 701 22 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 1 pdim pdim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 3 Used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 5 setting set VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 6 policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 7 levels level NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 9 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 10 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 11 variables variable NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 702 12 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 1 Priors prior NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 3 Used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 5 implementing implement VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 6 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 7 random random JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 8 effects effect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 9 estimation estimation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 10 components component NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 703 11 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 1 Each each DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 3 parameter parameter NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 4 is be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 5 mapped map VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 6 into into IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 7 an an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 8 element element NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 10 this this DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 11 subscript subscript NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 12 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 13 simplify simplify VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 14 vector vector NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 15 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 16 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 17 calculations calculation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 18 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 19 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 20 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 21 test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 22 status status NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 23 including include VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 24 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 25 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 27 ' ' `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 28 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 29 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 31 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 32 those those DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 33 unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 34 Complete complete JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 35 equations equation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 36 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 37 units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 38 Potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 39 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 40 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 41 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 42 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 43 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 44 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 45 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 46 Positive Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 47 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 48 Interested interest VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 49 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 50 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 51 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 52 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 53 Adj Adj NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 54 Active Active NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 704 55 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 705 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 705 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 706 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 5 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 6 < < XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 7 New New NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 8 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 9 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 11 DataTestRate[Rgn DataTestRate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 14 External External NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 15 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 16 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 17 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 19 InputAve[PriorEndoAve inputave[priorendoave NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 21 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 23 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 24 -SW -sw IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 25 EndoAve endoave NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 707 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 708 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 708 2 SW SW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 708 3 EndoAve EndoAve NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 2 CalcAve CalcAve NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 3 Activities Activities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 4 Allowed allow VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 5 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 6 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 7 Additional Additional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 8 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 709 9 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 710 1 Detection[Rgn Detection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 710 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 710 3 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 711 1 Weighted weighted JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 711 2 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 711 3 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 711 4 Detection detection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 712 1 Gate[Rgn Gate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 712 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 2 Additional Additional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 3 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 4 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 6 Symptomatic[Rgn Symptomatic[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 713 8 / / . cord-284945-837qlk8y 714 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 714 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 714 3 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 1 Additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 2 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 3 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 4 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 5 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 6 Additional Additional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 7 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 8 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 9 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 10 Symptomatic[Rgn Symptomatic[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 715 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 716 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 716 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 717 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 717 2 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 717 3 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 717 4 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 717 5 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 717 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 718 1 -exp -exp : cord-284945-837qlk8y 719 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 719 2 -Covid -Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 719 3 Acuity[Rgn Acuity[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 719 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 719 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 720 1 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 720 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 720 3 -Total -Total . cord-284945-837qlk8y 720 4 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 720 5 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 720 6 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 721 1 All all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 721 2 Recovery[Rgn recovery[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 721 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 722 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 1 Recovery recovery NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 3 Confirmed[Rgn confirmed[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 5 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 6 Recovery recovery NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 8 Untested[Rgn Untested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 10 + + `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 11 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 13 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 723 14 Discharges discharge NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 1 Expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 2 Positive Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 3 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 4 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 5 Patients[Rgn patients[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 7 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 8 Sqrt sqrt FW cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 10 Expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 11 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 12 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 13 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 14 Patients[Rgn Patients[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 724 16 ^ ^ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 725 1 2 2 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 725 2 + + SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 725 3 4 4 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 726 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 726 2 Effective Effective NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 726 3 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 726 4 Capacity[Rgn capacity[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 726 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 2 Effective Effective NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 3 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 4 Capacity[Rgn capacity[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 727 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 728 1 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 2 2 2 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 3 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 4 Effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 5 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 6 Capacity Capacity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 7 Allocated allocate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 8 Fration Fration NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 9 NonCOVID noncovid NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 10 Hospitalized[Rgn Hospitalized[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 729 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 730 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 730 2 SMOOTHI SMOOTHI NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 730 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 730 4 Allocated Allocated NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 730 5 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 730 6 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 731 1 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 2 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 4 maxAlp maxAlp NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 6 ialp ialp NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 7 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 8 alpR alpr NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 9 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 10 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 12 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 14 talp talp NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 15 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 16 alpR[Rgn alpR[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 732 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 733 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 733 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 733 3 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 733 4 17 17 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 733 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 734 1 alpR alpR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 734 2 Area Area NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 734 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 734 4 Region[Rgn region[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 734 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 2 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 3 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 4 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 5 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 6 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 7 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 8 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 10 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 11 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 735 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 2 XIDZ XIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 5 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 6 -Probability -probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 8 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 9 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 10 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 11 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 12 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 14 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 736 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 737 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 3 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 4 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 6 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 8 ^ ^ NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 9 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 12 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 13 -Fraction -fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 14 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 15 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 16 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 17 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 18 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 20 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 738 21 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 739 1 Subset[Rgn Subset[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 739 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 4 -Probability -probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 6 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 7 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 8 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 9 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 10 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 12 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 740 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 2 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 3 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 4 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 5 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 7 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 9 ^ ^ NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 10 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 13 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 14 -Fraction -fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 15 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 16 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 17 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 18 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 741 19 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 742 1 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 742 2 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 742 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 742 4 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 742 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 743 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 743 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 2 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 5 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 6 Poisson[Rgn poisson[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 8 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 744 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 2 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 3 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 4 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 5 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 7 Hospitals Hospitals NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 8 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 9 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 745 10 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 746 1 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 746 2 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 746 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 746 4 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 746 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 746 6 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 747 1 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 747 2 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 747 3 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 747 4 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 748 1 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 748 2 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 748 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 748 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 748 5 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 748 6 Poisson[Rgn poisson[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 749 1 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 749 2 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 749 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 749 4 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 1 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 3 0 0 NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 5 Probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 7 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 8 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 9 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 10 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 11 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 13 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 750 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 2 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 5 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 6 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 751 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 752 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 3 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 4 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 5 Probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 7 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 8 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 9 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 10 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 11 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 13 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 753 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 2 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 5 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 6 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 7 Subset[Rgn subset[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 754 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 755 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 756 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 756 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 756 3 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 756 4 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 756 5 -Prob -Prob . cord-284945-837qlk8y 757 1 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 757 2 Symptom[Rgn symptom[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 757 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 758 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 2 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 3 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 4 Tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 6 ^ ^ NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 7 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 759 9 , , . cord-284945-837qlk8y 760 1 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 760 2 -Fraction -fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 761 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 761 2 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 761 3 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 761 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 761 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 761 6 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 2 Prob Prob NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 3 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 4 Symptom symptom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 5 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 6 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 8 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 762 9 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 763 1 Subset[Rgn Subset[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 763 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 764 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 764 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 765 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 765 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 765 3 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 766 1 Reaching reach VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 766 2 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 766 3 Gate[Rgn gate[rgn CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 766 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 767 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 767 2 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 767 3 Acuity[Rgn Acuity[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 767 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 768 1 -Positive -Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 768 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 768 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 768 4 Infected[Rgn infected[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 768 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 2 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 5 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 6 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 9 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 769 10 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 1 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 2 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 3 Passing pass VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 4 Gate Gate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 5 Positive Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 6 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 7 Interested interest VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 9 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 10 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 11 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 12 Adj[Rgn adj[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 770 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 1 -Potential -Potential -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 2 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 3 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 4 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 5 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 6 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 9 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 771 10 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 5 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 6 Adj Adj NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 7 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 8 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 9 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 11 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 12 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 13 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 14 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 15 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 16 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 17 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 18 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 19 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 772 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 773 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 773 2 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 2 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 3 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 6 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 7 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 8 BaseError BaseError NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 9 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 10 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 11 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 774 12 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 775 1 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 775 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 775 3 Daily Daily NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 2 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 3 Seeking seeking NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 4 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 5 Demographic demographic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 6 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 8 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 9 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 10 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 11 China[Rgn china[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 776 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 2 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 3 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 6 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 7 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 8 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 9 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 10 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 12 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 13 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 14 Asymptomatic[Rgn Asymptomatic[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 777 16 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 778 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 3 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 4 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 6 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 7 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 8 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 9 Multiplier multiplier NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 10 Transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 11 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 12 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 13 Asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 14 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 15 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 16 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 17 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 18 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 19 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 20 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 21 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 22 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 23 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 779 24 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 780 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 780 2 Bed Bed NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 780 3 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 780 4 Square Square NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 780 5 Kilometer[Rgn kilometer[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 780 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 781 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 781 2 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 782 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 782 2 Nominal Nominal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 782 3 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 783 1 Capacity[Rgn Capacity[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 783 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 1 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 2 Area area NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 4 Region Region NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 5 Beds Beds NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 6 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 7 Thousand thousand CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 8 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 784 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 2 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 3 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 4 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 5 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 6 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 7 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 9 lnymix lnymix VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 10 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 12 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 13 Untested[Rgn untested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 785 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 786 1 -Post -Post : cord-284945-837qlk8y 787 1 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 787 2 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 788 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 788 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 789 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 790 1 Frac Frac NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 790 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 790 3 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 790 4 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 791 1 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 791 2 Chronic Chronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 791 3 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 791 4 Rate[Rgn rate[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 791 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 2 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 3 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 4 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 5 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 6 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 7 Chronic Chronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 8 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 9 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 10 Fatality[Rgn Fatality[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 792 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 793 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 793 2 Cml Cml NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 793 3 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 793 4 Frac Frac NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 794 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 794 2 Hosp[Rgn Hosp[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 794 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 795 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 796 1 XIDZ XIDZ NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 2 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 3 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 4 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 5 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 6 Cml Cml NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 7 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 8 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 10 hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 11 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 797 12 enough enough RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 798 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 798 2 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 798 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 799 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 799 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 799 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 800 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 800 2 Cml Cml NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 800 3 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 800 4 Frac Frac NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 2 Hosp Hosp NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 3 Cml Cml NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 4 Known Known NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 5 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 6 Frac Frac NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 7 Hosp[Rgn Hosp[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 801 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 802 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 803 1 XIDZ XIDZ NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 2 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 3 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 4 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 5 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 6 CmltErrPW cmlterrpw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 7 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 8 2 2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 9 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 11 dmnl dmnl NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 12 CmltPenaltyScl cmltpenaltyscl NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 13 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 14 0 0 NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 15 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 17 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 18 Constant Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 19 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 20 File file NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 21 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 22 IS be VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 23 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 804 24 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 1 CovidModelInputs CovidModelInputs NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 2 -ConstantData -ConstantData NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 3 Contacts Contacts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 4 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 6 Normal[Rgn Normal[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 805 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 2 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 4 Voluntary Voluntary NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 5 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 6 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 7 Contacts[Rgn contacts[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 10 Activities activity NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 11 Allowed allow VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 12 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 13 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 14 Reaching Reaching NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 806 15 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 807 1 Gate[Rgn Gate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 807 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 808 1 -Symptomatic -symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 809 1 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 809 2 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 809 3 Testing[Rgn Testing[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 809 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 810 1 -Untested -unteste VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 1 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 2 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 4 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 5 Excess Excess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 6 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 7 Start Start NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 8 Count[Rgn Count[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 10 = = VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 811 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 812 1 NA NA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 812 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 812 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 812 4 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 812 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 5 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 6 > > XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 7 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 8 Excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 9 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 813 10 Start start NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 814 1 Count Count NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 814 2 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 814 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 2 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 4 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 6 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 7 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 8 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 9 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 10 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 11 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 12 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 13 Net[Rgn Net[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 815 15 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 816 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 2 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 4 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 6 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 7 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 8 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 9 Hospitalized[Rgn Hospitalized[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 817 11 , , . cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 1 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 2 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 3 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 4 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 5 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 6 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 7 Poisson[Rgn Poisson[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 818 9 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 819 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 819 2 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 819 3 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 819 4 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 819 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 819 6 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 820 1 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 820 2 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 820 3 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 821 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 821 2 Cases[Rgn cases[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 821 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 2 INTEG INTEG NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 4 New new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 5 Cases[Rgn cases[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 8 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 822 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 823 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 823 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 824 1 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 824 2 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 824 3 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 824 4 Cases[Rgn Cases[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 824 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 824 6 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 825 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 825 2 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 825 3 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 825 4 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 825 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 825 6 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 1 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 2 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 4 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 6 + + `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 7 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 8 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 10 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 11 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 12 Recovered[Rgn Recovered[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 826 14 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 2 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 3 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 4 Hospitals Hospitals NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 5 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 6 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 7 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 8 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 9 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 10 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 11 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 13 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 14 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 15 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 17 Confirmed[Rgn confirmed[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 827 19 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 2 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 3 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 4 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 6 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 8 + + `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 9 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 10 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 12 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 13 Untreated Untreated NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 14 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 15 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 17 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 18 Untreated[Rgn untreated[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 828 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 829 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 829 2 INTEG INTEG NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 2 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 4 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 5 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 6 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 7 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 8 Untreated Untreated NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 9 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 10 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 11 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 12 Cases Cases NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 13 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 830 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 831 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 832 1 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 2 sum sum VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 4 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 5 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 6 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 7 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 9 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 10 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 833 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 2 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 3 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 4 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 5 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 7 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 8 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 834 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 2 Hospitalized hospitalized JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 3 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 5 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 6 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 835 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 1 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 2 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 3 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 4 Cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 5 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 6 Missed miss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 7 Death[Rgn death[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 836 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 837 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 837 2 INTEG INTEG NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 2 Count Count NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 3 Missed miss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 4 Death[Rgn death[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 7 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 838 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 3 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 4 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 5 Negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 6 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 7 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 8 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 9 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 10 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 12 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 14 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 15 INTEG INTEG NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 17 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 18 Discharges discharge NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 19 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 20 Recoveries[Rgn recoveries[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 839 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 840 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 840 2 INTEG INTEG NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 2 All all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 3 Recovery Recovery NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 4 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 5 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 6 Conducted conduct VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 7 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 8 Tests Tests NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 9 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 10 Current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 11 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 12 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 13 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 14 Capita capita NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 841 15 dalp dalp XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 1 = = LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 2 0.1 0.1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 3 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 5 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 6 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 7 Excess Excess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 8 Deaths[Rgn Deaths[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 10 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 11 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 12 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 13 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 14 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 15 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 17 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 18 DataConstants[Rgn dataconstants[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 842 20 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 1 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 2 15 15 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 6 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 7 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 8 Pseudo Pseudo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 9 Case Case NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 10 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 11 RAW raw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 12 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 843 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 844 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 844 2 DataCmltInfection DataCmltInfection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 844 3 RAW raw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 844 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 844 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 844 6 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 1 DataCmltDeath DataCmltDeath NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 2 RAW raw JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 6 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 7 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 8 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 9 RAW raw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 845 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 846 1 DataFlowInfection DataFlowInfection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 846 2 RAW RAW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 846 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 846 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 846 5 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 847 1 DataFlowDeath DataFlowDeath NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 847 2 RAW RAW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 847 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 847 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 2 DataTestRate datatestrate JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 3 RAW raw NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 5 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 7 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 8 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 848 9 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 2 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 3 Cases Cases NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 4 New New NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 5 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 6 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 849 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 850 1 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 3 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 4 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 5 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 6 DataLimitFromTime datalimitfromtime NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 851 7 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 852 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 852 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 852 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 2 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 3 > > XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 4 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 5 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 6 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 7 Used use VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 9 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 11 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 13 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 15 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 16 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 17 365 365 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 18 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 853 19 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 854 1 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 854 2 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 854 3 Year Year NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 854 4 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 855 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 855 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 856 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 1 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 3 Confirmed[Rgn Confirmed[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 5 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 6 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 8 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 9 Untested[Rgn untested[rgn JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 11 + + `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 12 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 857 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 1 Hospitalized hospitalized JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 2 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 3 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 4 Tested test VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 5 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 6 Resolution[Rgn resolution[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 858 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 2 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 3 Rate Rate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 4 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 5 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 6 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 7 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 8 Phase Phase NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 9 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 10 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 859 11 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 2 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 3 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 4 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 5 Delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 6 Order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 7 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 8 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 9 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 11 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 12 Demographic Demographic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 13 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 14 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 15 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 16 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 17 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 18 China[Rgn china[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 20 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 21 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 22 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 23 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 24 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 25 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 26 Discount Discount NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 27 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 28 Annual Annual NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 29 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 30 0.03 0.03 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 31 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 32 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 33 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 34 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 35 Year Year NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 36 Discount Discount NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 37 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 38 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 39 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 40 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 41 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 43 Discount Discount NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 44 Rate Rate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 45 Annual Annual NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 46 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 47 Days day NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 48 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 49 Year year NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 50 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 51 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 52 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 53 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 54 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 55 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 56 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 57 Factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 58 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 59 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 60 Perception Perception NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 61 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 62 Factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 63 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 64 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 65 Perception Perception NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 66 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 860 67 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 861 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 5 Response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 6 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 862 7 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 1 On on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 2 < < XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 3 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 5 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 6 Factor Factor NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 7 Policy Policy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 8 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 9 Response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 10 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 11 Weight[dfcP Weight[dfcP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 863 13 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 3 -Response -response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 4 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 5 Weight[dfcP Weight[dfcP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 864 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 2 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 3 Factor Factor NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 5 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 6 Perception[Rgn perception[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 9 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 10 Factor Factor NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 12 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 13 Perception Perception NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 14 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 15 Factor Factor NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 16 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 865 17 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 1 3000 3000 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 2 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 4 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 5 Effective Effective NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 6 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 7 Capacity[Rgn capacity[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 866 9 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 867 1 Nominal Nominal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 867 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 868 1 Capacity[Rgn Capacity[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 868 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 869 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 869 2 Normalized normalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 869 3 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 869 4 density[Rgn density[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 869 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 870 1 ^ ^ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 1 Impact impact NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 3 Population Population NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 4 Density Density NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 6 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 7 Availability availability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 8 Excess Excess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 9 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 10 End end NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 11 Count[Rgn count[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 13 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 14 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 15 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 16 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 17 Data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 18 File file NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 871 19 Excess excess NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 1 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 2 Mean mean JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 3 Frac frac NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 4 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 5 0.9 0.9 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 6 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 7 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 8 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 9 Excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 10 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 11 Range Range NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 12 Frac frac NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 13 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 14 0.2 0.2 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 15 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 17 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 18 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 20 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 21 Missed miss VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 22 Death[Rgn death[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 872 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 873 1 -Excess -Excess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 874 1 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 874 2 Mean Mean NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 874 3 Frac frac NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 875 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 875 2 Data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 875 3 Excess excess NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 875 4 Deaths[Rgn deaths[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 875 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 875 6 , , . cord-284945-837qlk8y 876 1 Excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 876 2 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 876 3 Range range NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 876 4 Frac frac NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 877 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 1 Data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 2 Excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 3 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 4 Excess excess JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 5 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 6 Start Start NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 7 Count[Rgn count[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 878 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 879 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 879 2 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 879 3 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 879 4 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 879 5 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 879 6 File file NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 880 1 Expected expect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 880 2 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 880 3 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 880 4 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 881 1 Patients[Rgn Patients[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 881 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 882 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 1 sum sum NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 3 Potential Potential NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 4 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 5 Demand[Rgn demand[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 7 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 8 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 883 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 2 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 3 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 4 - - NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 5 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 6 Phase Phase NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 7 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 8 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 9 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 10 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 12 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 13 122 122 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 15 expnt expnt NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 16 External External NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 884 17 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 885 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 886 1 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 886 2 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 886 3 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 886 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 2 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 5 Utility Utility NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 6 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 7 Normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 8 Activities[Rgn activities[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 887 10 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 2 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 4 Limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 5 Activities[Rgn Activities[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 7 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 8 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 9 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 10 Normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 11 Activities Activities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 12 Units Units NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 14 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 15 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 16 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 17 Multiplier[Rgn Multiplier[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 888 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 2 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 4 Treatment Treatment NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 5 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 6 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 7 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 889 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 2 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 4 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 5 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 6 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 7 Multiplier[Rgn multiplier[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 890 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 2 Average average JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 5 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 6 Poisson[Rgn poisson[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 8 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 891 10 ^ ^ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 1 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 3 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 6 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 7 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 8 Final final JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 9 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 10 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 11 Per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 12 Capita[Rgn capita[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 892 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 893 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 893 2 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 2 Current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 5 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 6 Capita[Rgn capita[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 894 8 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 895 1 Weight Weight NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 895 2 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 895 3 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 895 4 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 895 5 Goal Goal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 3 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 4 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 5 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 6 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 7 Capita capita NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 8 -Current -Current HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 9 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 10 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 11 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 896 12 Capita capita NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 897 1 FINAL final JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 897 2 TIME time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 897 3 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 898 1 250 250 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 898 2 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 898 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 1 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 2 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 4 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 6 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 7 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 9 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 10 Untested Untested NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 11 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 12 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 899 13 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 900 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 900 2 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 901 1 Previously previously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 901 2 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 901 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 901 4 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 902 1 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 2 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 3 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 4 Deaths Deaths NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 5 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 6 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 7 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 903 8 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 904 1 Tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 904 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 905 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 906 1 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 907 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 907 2 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 908 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 908 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 908 3 Interested Interested NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 909 1 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 909 2 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 909 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 909 4 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 910 1 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 910 2 -ZIDZ -ZIDZ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 2 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 3 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 4 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 5 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 6 Patients[Rgn Patients[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 9 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 911 10 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 5 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 6 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 912 7 Interseted Interseted NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 913 1 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 913 2 Correctly correctly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 913 3 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 913 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 913 5 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 914 1 1 1 LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 914 2 - - : cord-284945-837qlk8y 914 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 914 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 914 5 -Fraction -fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 2 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 3 Additional Additional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 4 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 5 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 6 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 7 Symptomatic[Rgn Symptomatic[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 915 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 916 1 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 917 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 917 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 917 3 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 1 Additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 2 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 3 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 4 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 5 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 6 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 918 8 Fatalities Fatalities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 919 1 Screened Screened NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 919 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 919 3 Mortem[Rgn mortem[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 919 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 919 5 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 920 1 Indicated indicate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 920 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 920 3 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 921 1 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 921 2 Testing[Rgn Testing[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 921 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 2 Switch switch VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 3 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 4 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 5 Response Response NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 6 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 8 Population Population NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 9 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 11 Covid[Rgn Covid[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 922 13 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 1 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 2 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 3 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 4 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 5 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 6 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 923 7 Hospitalized[Rgn Hospitalized[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 1 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 2 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 4 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 5 exp exp NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 7 -Average -average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 8 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 924 10 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 925 1 Tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 925 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 4 -Probability -probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 6 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 7 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 8 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 9 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 10 Hospitals Hospitals NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 11 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 926 12 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 927 1 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 927 2 Hospitalized[Rgn Hospitalized[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 927 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 927 4 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 927 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 2 exp exp NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 4 -Average -average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 5 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 7 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 928 8 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 929 1 Subset[Rgn Subset[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 929 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 4 -Probability -probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 6 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 7 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 8 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 9 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 10 Hospitals Hospitals NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 11 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 12 Seeking seeking NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 13 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 14 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 930 15 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 931 1 Positive[Rgn Positive[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 931 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 4 Positive Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 5 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 7 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 932 8 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 933 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 933 2 Data[Rgn Data[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 933 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 2 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 6 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 8 DataFlowInfection[Rgn DataFlowInfection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 11 Active Active NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 12 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 13 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 934 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 935 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 935 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 935 3 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 935 4 149 149 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 935 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 1 Fractional Fractional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 2 Value Value NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 4 Limited Limited NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 5 Activities Activities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 6 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 7 0.5 0.5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 8 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 10 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 11 Global Global NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 12 Cases Cases NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 13 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 14 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 16 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 17 Cases[Rgn cases[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 18 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 936 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 3 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 4 Global Global NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 5 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 6 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 7 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 9 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 10 Deaths[Rgn deaths[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 11 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 937 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 3 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 4 Global Global NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 5 Deaths Deaths NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 7 Global Global NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 8 Cases Cases NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 10 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 938 11 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 2 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 3 Response Response NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 4 Start Start NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 5 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 6 Hazard Hazard NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 8 Symptomatic Symptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 9 Infection[Rgn Infection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 939 11 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 940 1 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 940 2 Rate[Rgn rate[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 940 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 941 1 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 941 2 Susceptible[Rgn Susceptible[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 941 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 942 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 3 -Total -Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 4 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 5 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 6 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 7 Herd Herd NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 8 Immunity Immunity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 9 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 10 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 11 0.8 0.8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 12 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 14 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 15 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 16 Admission Admission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 17 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 19 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 943 21 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 944 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 944 2 Admits admit VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 1 All all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 3 Admit admit VBP cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 4 Ratio[Rgn ratio[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 6 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 945 8 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 946 1 XIDZ XIDZ NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 2 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 3 Admits admit VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 4 All all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 5 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 6 Admits admit VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 7 All[Rgn all[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 9 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 947 11 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 948 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 948 2 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 948 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 948 4 Tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 948 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 949 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 950 1 Allocated Allocated NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 950 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 950 3 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 1 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 3 Admits admit VBZ cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 4 All[Rgn All[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 6 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 951 8 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 952 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 952 2 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 952 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 952 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 952 5 Tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 952 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 953 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 954 1 Allocated Allocated NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 954 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 954 3 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 955 1 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 1 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 2 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 3 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 4 Tested test VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 5 Passing pass VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 6 Gate[Rgn gate[rgn CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 956 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 957 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 957 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 957 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 957 4 -exp -exp ADD cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 2 -Average -average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 5 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 6 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 7 Subset[Rgn subset[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 958 9 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 959 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 959 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 959 3 -PMAS -PMAS . cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 1 Unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 2 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 3 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 4 Demand Demand NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 5 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 6 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 8 Infected[Rgn infected[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 960 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 961 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 961 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 961 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 961 4 -exp -exp ADD cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 2 -Average -average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 5 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 6 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 962 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 4 -PMAS -PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 5 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 6 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 7 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 8 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 963 9 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 3 -Fatality -fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 5 Treated[Rgn treated[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 7 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 964 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 965 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 965 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 965 3 Outflow outflow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 965 4 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 3 Outflow outflow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 4 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 5 Positive[Rgn positive[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 7 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 966 9 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 967 1 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 967 2 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 967 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 967 4 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 967 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 967 6 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 968 1 Hospitalized hospitalized JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 968 2 Resolution Resolution NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 968 3 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 968 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 2 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 3 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 4 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 5 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 6 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 969 7 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 970 1 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 971 1 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 971 2 Deaths[Rgn deaths[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 971 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 971 4 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 971 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 972 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 973 1 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 973 2 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 973 3 Treated[Rgn treated[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 973 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 973 5 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 973 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 974 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 974 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 974 3 Outflow outflow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 974 4 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 2 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 3 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 4 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 5 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 6 20 20 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 7 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 975 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 976 1 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 976 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 976 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 976 4 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 976 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 1 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 2 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 3 Deaths[Rgn deaths[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 5 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 6 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 10 sum sum NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 12 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 13 Outflow outflow NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 14 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 15 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 977 16 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 2 sum sum VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 4 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 5 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 6 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 7 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 9 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 10 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 978 13 , , . cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 1 sum sum VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 3 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 4 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 5 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 6 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 8 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 9 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 979 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 2 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 3 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 4 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 5 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 6 Units Units NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 7 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 980 8 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 981 1 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 981 2 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 982 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 982 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 982 3 Prob Prob NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 982 4 Missing Missing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 982 5 Symptom symptom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 982 6 Indicated indicate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 983 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 983 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 983 3 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 983 4 Testing[Rgn Testing[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 983 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 983 6 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 984 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 984 2 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 984 3 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 985 1 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 985 2 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 986 1 Previously previously RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 986 2 Tested[Rgn Tested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 986 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 986 4 ^ ^ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 1 Sensitivity Sensitivity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 3 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 4 Testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 6 Capacity Capacity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 7 Indicated indicate VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 8 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 987 10 Life Life NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 988 1 Loss[Rgn Loss[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 988 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 2 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 6 Switch switch VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 8 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 9 Response[Rgn response[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 989 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 990 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 990 2 Perceived Perceived NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 990 3 Hazard Hazard NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 990 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 990 5 Infection[Rgn Infection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 990 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 2 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 3 Factor Factor NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 5 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 6 Perception Perception NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 7 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 991 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 2 PseudoCFR pseudocfr VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 3 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 4 Discount discount NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 5 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 6 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 7 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 9 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 992 11 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 993 1 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 993 2 Infected Infected NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 993 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 993 4 Testing[Rgn Testing[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 993 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 994 1 -Untested -unteste VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 1 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 2 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 3 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 4 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 7 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 995 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 996 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 996 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 996 3 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 996 4 180 180 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 996 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 997 1 Transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 997 2 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 997 3 Presymptomatic[Rgn presymptomatic[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 997 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 998 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 999 1 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 999 2 pre pre XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1000 1 Detection[Rgn Detection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1000 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 2 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 3 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 4 Pre Pre NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 5 Detection[Rgn detection[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1001 7 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1002 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1002 2 Additional Additional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1002 3 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1002 4 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1003 1 Detection[Rgn Detection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1003 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 2 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 3 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 5 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 6 tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 7 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 8 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 9 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 11 Confirmed[Rgn Confirmed[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 13 + + SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 14 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 16 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 17 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 18 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 19 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 20 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1004 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 2 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 3 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 4 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 5 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 7 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 8 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1005 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 2 Reference Reference NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 3 Force Force NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 5 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 6 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 7 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 8 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 9 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1006 11 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 1 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 2 Constant Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 3 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 4 File file NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 6 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 7 DataConstants[Rgn dataconstants[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1007 9 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 1 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 6 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 7 187 187 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1008 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 2 TIME time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 3 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 4 30 30 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 5 Units Units NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 6 Known know VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 7 death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 8 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 10 hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 11 large large JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1009 12 enough enough RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 2 sum sum NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 4 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 5 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 6 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 8 Cml Cml NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 9 Known know VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 10 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 11 Frac Frac NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 12 Hosp[Rgn Hosp[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 13 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1010 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 1 < < NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 2 MinHspDTreshAdv MinHspDTreshAdv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 6 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1011 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 2 AdvCntrs AdvCntrs NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 3 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 4 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 5 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 6 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 7 Fatality[Rgn Fatality[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1012 9 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1013 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 3 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 4 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 5 Rate Rate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 6 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1014 7 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 3 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 4 GET get VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 5 VDF VDF NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 6 CONSTANTS(Constant CONSTANTS(Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 7 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 8 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 10 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 11 DataConstants[Rgn dataconstants[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 13 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 15 18 18 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 17 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1015 18 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 2 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 3 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 4 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 5 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 6 Capita capita NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 7 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 8 0.001 0.001 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 9 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 11 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 12 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 13 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 14 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 15 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1016 16 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 1 Used used JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 2 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 3 247 247 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 6 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 7 200 200 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1017 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 1 maxAlp maxAlp NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 2 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 4 Units Units NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 6 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 7 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 9 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 10 MaxRTresh MaxRTresh NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 11 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 12 8 8 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 13 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 15 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 16 Constant Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 17 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 18 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 19 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 20 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 21 MeanChronic MeanChronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 22 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 23 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 24 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 26 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 27 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 28 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 29 Constant Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 30 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 31 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 32 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 33 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 34 MeanLiver MeanLiver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 35 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 36 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 37 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 39 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 40 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 41 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 42 Constant Constant NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 43 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 44 File File NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 45 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 46 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 47 MeanObesity MeanObesity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 48 ' ' '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 49 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 50 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 52 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 53 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 54 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 55 Min Min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 56 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 57 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 58 MinAdjT minadjt NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 59 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 60 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 61 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1018 62 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 1 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 2 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 3 Recent Recent NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 4 Infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 5 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 6 Test test VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 7 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 8 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 9 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 11 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 12 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 13 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 14 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 15 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 16 Asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 17 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1019 19 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1020 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 2 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 3 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 4 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 6 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 7 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 8 alp alp NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 9 Negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 10 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1021 11 Results result NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1022 1 New new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1022 2 Cases[Rgn cases[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1022 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1023 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 1 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 2 Rate Rate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 3 New new JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 4 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 5 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 6 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 7 250 250 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 8 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1024 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1025 1 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1025 2 Nominal Nominal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1025 3 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1025 4 Capacity[Rgn capacity[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1025 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1025 6 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1026 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1027 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1027 2 Initial initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1027 3 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1027 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1028 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1028 2 Beds Beds . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 1 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 2 Thousand thousand CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 3 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 5 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 6 1000 1000 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 8 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 10 Person Person NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 11 Normalized normalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 12 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 13 density[Rgn density[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1029 15 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1030 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 2 Bed bed NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 3 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 4 Square Square NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 5 Kilometer[Rgn Kilometer[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1031 7 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1032 1 Reference reference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1032 2 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1033 1 Density density NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1033 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1033 3 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1033 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1033 5 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1034 1 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1034 2 too too RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1034 3 few few JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1034 4 susceptibles susceptible NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1034 5 = = XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 1 sum sum VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 3 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 4 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 5 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 7 SuscFrac[Rgn suscfrac[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 8 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1035 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 1 < < NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 2 MinSuscTresh MinSuscTresh NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 3 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 6 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1036 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 3 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 4 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 5 Obesity Obesity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 6 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 7 Net net JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 8 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 9 Rate[Rgn rate[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 12 Incubation Incubation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 13 Period Period NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 15 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1037 16 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 1 Delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 2 Order order NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 6 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 7 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 8 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 9 229 229 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 11 Onset onset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 13 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 14 Delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 15 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 16 5 5 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 17 Units Units NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 18 Overall Overall NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 19 Death Death NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 20 Fraction[Rgn fraction[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1038 22 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1039 1 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 2 Death death NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 3 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 6 All all DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 7 Recovery[Rgn recovery[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1040 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1041 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1041 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1042 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1042 2 Patient Patient NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1042 3 Zero Zero NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1042 4 Arrival[Rgn arrival[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1042 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1043 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 5 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 6 < < XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 7 Patient Patient NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 8 Zero Zero NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 9 Arrival Arrival NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 10 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 11 Patient Patient NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 12 Zero Zero NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 13 Arrival Arrival NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 14 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 15 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 17 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 18 234 234 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 20 payoff payoff NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 21 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 22 0 0 NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 23 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 24 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 25 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 26 235 235 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 28 pdim pdim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 29 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 30 tstP tstP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 31 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 32 dfcP dfcP NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 33 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 34 dgtP dgtP VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 35 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 36 scuP scuP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 37 Perceived Perceived NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 38 Hazard Hazard NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 39 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 40 Infection[Rgn Infection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 41 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1044 42 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 2 Weight weight NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 3 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 4 Reported Reported NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 5 Probability Probability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 7 Infection[Rgn infection[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1045 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 2 Reported report VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 3 Hazard Hazard NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 5 Infection[Rgn Infection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1046 7 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 3 -Weight -weight NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 4 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 5 Reported reported JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 6 Probability Probability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 8 Infection[Rgn Infection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1047 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 2 Hazard hazard NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 4 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 5 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 6 Indicated indicate VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 7 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 9 Life Life NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 10 Loss[Rgn Loss[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1048 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 1 -Perceived -Perceived NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 2 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 4 Life Life NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 5 Loss[Rgn Loss[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1049 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 1 / / , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 2 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 3 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 4 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 6 Indicated indicate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 7 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 9 Life Life NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 10 Loss[Rgn Loss[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1050 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1051 1 > > XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 1 Perceived perceive VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 2 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 4 Life Life NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 5 Loss Loss NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 6 PMAS PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 7 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 8 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 9 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 10 Demand[Rgn demand[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1052 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1053 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1053 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1053 3 -Reference -reference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 1 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 2 Hospitalization Hospitalization NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 3 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 4 Confirmed[Rgn confirmed[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1054 7 ^ ^ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 3 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 4 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 5 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 7 Positively positively RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 8 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 9 PMAS PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 10 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 12 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 13 Demand[Rgn demand[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1055 15 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 3 -PMAS -PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 4 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 6 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 7 Demand[Rgn demand[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1056 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 2 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 3 PMAS PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 4 Gap Gap NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 5 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 6 Tested Tested NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 7 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 8 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 9 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 10 or or CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1057 12 Hospitals hospital NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1058 1 Poisson[Rgn Poisson[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1058 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1059 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1059 2 exp exp XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1059 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1059 4 -Average -average NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1060 1 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1060 2 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1060 3 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1061 1 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1061 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1061 3 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1061 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1061 5 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1061 6 Passing pass VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1062 1 Gate[Rgn Gate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1062 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1063 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1064 1 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1064 2 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1065 1 Reaching reach VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1065 2 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1065 3 Gate[Rgn gate[rgn CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1065 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 1 -Positive -Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 4 Infected Infected NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 5 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 6 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 7 Reaching reach VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 8 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 9 Gate[Rgn gate[rgn CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1066 11 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1067 1 Reaching reach VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1067 2 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1067 3 Gate[Rgn gate[rgn CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1067 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1067 5 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1068 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1068 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1068 3 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 1 Additional additional JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 2 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 3 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 4 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 5 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 6 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1069 7 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1070 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1070 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1071 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 5 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 6 < < XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 7 New New NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 8 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 9 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 10 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 11 Current current JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 12 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 13 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 14 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 15 Capita[Rgn capita[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 18 Final Final NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 19 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1072 20 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1073 1 Per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1073 2 Capita capita NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1073 3 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1074 1 Unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1074 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1074 3 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1074 4 Detection"[Rgn Detection"[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1074 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1075 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1075 2 Susceptible[Rgn susceptible[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1075 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 2 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 3 Unconfirmed[Rgn Unconfirmed[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 5 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 6 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 7 Recovered[Rgn Recovered[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1076 9 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1077 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1077 2 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1077 3 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1077 4 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1077 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1077 6 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 1 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 2 Pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 3 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 4 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 5 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 6 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 7 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 8 Interested interest VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 9 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 10 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1078 11 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1079 1 Subset[Rgn Subset[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1079 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1079 3 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1080 1 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1080 2 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1081 1 Reaching reach VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1081 2 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1081 3 Gate[Rgn gate[rgn CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1081 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1082 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 2 Seeking seeking NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 4 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 5 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 6 Interested interest VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 8 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 9 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 10 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 11 Adj[Rgn adj[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1083 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1084 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1085 1 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1085 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1085 3 0.001 0.001 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 2 Potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 4 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 5 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 6 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 7 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 10 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1086 11 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 5 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 6 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 7 Testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 8 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 9 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 10 Untreated[Rgn untreated[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1087 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1088 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1089 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1089 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1089 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1089 4 Infected[Rgn infected[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1089 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1090 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 3 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 4 Hospitalized hospitalize VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 5 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 6 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 8 Infected[Rgn Infected[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1091 10 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1092 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1092 2 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1093 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1093 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1093 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1093 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1094 1 Subset[Rgn Subset[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1094 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 4 -Fraction -fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 5 Interseted Interseted NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 6 not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 7 Correctly correctly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 8 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 9 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 10 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 11 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 12 Rate[Rgn rate[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1095 14 = = . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1096 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1096 2 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1096 3 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1097 1 Total[Rgn Total[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1097 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 2 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 4 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 5 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 6 Units Units NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 7 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 8 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 9 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 10 Untreated[Rgn untreated[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1098 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1099 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1099 2 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1099 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1100 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1100 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1101 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 1 Frac Frac NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 3 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 4 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 5 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 6 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 8 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 9 Untested[Rgn untested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1102 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 2 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 3 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 4 Deaths[Rgn deaths[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 6 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1103 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1104 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1104 2 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1104 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1104 4 Fatalities Fatalities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1104 5 Screened screen VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1105 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1106 1 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1106 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1107 1 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1107 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1108 1 Total[Rgn Total[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1108 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1109 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1109 2 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 3 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 4 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 5 Need[Rgn Need[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 8 Active Active NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 9 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 10 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1110 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1111 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1111 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 1 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 2 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 3 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 4 255 255 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 5 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 6 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 8 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 10 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 11 MinAdjT MinAdjT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1112 12 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1113 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1113 2 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1113 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1114 1 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1114 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1115 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1115 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1115 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1115 4 -Frac -frac CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 2 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 4 Potential Potential NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 5 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 6 Demand[Rgn demand[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 8 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1116 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1117 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 2 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 4 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 5 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 6 Potential Potential NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 7 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 8 Demand[Rgn demand[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 10 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1118 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1119 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1119 2 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1119 3 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1119 4 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1120 1 Unconfirmed[Rgn Unconfirmed[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1120 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1121 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 1 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 2 Recovered recover VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 3 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 4 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 6 Notest Notest NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1122 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 3 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 4 Daily Daily NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 5 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 6 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 7 Seeking seek VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 8 Tests[Rgn tests[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1123 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1124 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 2 Seeking seek VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 3 Test[Rgn Test[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 5 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 6 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 7 Recent recent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 8 Infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 9 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 10 Test test VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 11 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 12 Rate[Rgn rate[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 14 + + NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 15 Patient patient NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 16 Zero Zero NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 17 Arrival[Rgn arrival[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1125 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 1 -Onset -Onset : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 2 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 3 Symptoms[Rgn Symptoms[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 6 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 8 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 10 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 11 261 261 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1126 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1127 1 PriorEndoAve priorendoave NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1127 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1128 1 UpAdj UpAdj NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1128 2 MTrAsym MTrAsym NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1128 3 264 264 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1128 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1129 1 Priors prior NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1129 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1129 3 UpAdj UpAdj NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1129 4 Prob Prob NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 1 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 2 Symptom symptom NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 3 Probability probability NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 5 Missing miss VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 6 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 7 Signal Signal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 8 at at IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1130 9 Hospitals[Rgn hospitals[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1131 1 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1131 2 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1131 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1131 4 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1132 1 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1132 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 1 ln ln NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 2 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 3 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 5 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 6 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 7 Subset[Rgn subset[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 10 + + SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 11 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 12 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 14 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 15 268 268 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1133 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1134 1 PseudoCFR pseudocfr VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 3 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 4 Effective Effective NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 5 Reproduction Reproduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 6 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1135 8 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1136 1 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 2 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 3 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 6 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 7 Weighted weighted JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 8 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1137 9 Population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 1 Reaching reach VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 2 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 3 Gate Gate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 4 Realistic realistic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 5 R0 R0 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 6 = = NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1138 7 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 2 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 3 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 4 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 6 R R NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 7 Effective effective JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 8 Reproduction reproduction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 9 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 10 Recovery Recovery NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 12 Untested[Rgn Untested[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 14 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 15 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 17 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 18 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 19 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 20 274 274 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 22 Recovery recovery NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 23 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 24 Confirmed[Rgn Confirmed[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1139 26 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1140 1 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1140 2 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1140 3 Resolution[Rgn resolution[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1140 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 4 -Fatality -fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 5 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 6 Untreated untreated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 7 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 8 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 9 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 10 Phase Phase NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 11 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 12 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 13 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 15 -Deaths -death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 17 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 18 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 19 Reference reference NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 20 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 21 Hospitalization Hospitalization NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 22 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 23 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 24 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 25 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 26 Person/(Km*Km Person/(Km*Km NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 28 RegionalInputs[RFI regionalinputs[rfi NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 29 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 30 Rgn Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1141 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1142 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1143 1 Reference Reference NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1143 2 Force Force NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1143 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1143 4 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 1 Sensitivity Sensitivity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 3 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 4 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 5 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 6 Capacity Capacity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 7 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1144 8 Daily Daily NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 1 Fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 2 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 3 Seeking seeking NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 4 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 5 Weight Weight NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 6 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 7 Reported reported JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 8 Probability Probability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 10 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 11 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 12 Recent recent JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 13 Infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 14 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 15 Test test VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 16 Min Min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 17 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 18 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 19 Confirmation Confirmation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 20 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 21 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 22 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 23 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 24 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 25 Population Population NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 26 Density Density NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 27 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 28 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 29 Availability Availability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 30 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 31 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 32 Treatment Treatment NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 33 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 34 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 35 Rate Rate NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 36 Log Log NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 38 Dread Dread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 39 Factor factor NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 40 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 41 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 42 Perception Perception NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 43 Reference Reference NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1145 44 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 1 Hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 3 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 4 Base Base NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 5 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 6 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 7 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 8 Unit Unit NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 9 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 10 Net net JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 11 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 12 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 13 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 14 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 15 Flu Flu NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 16 Net net JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 17 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 19 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 20 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 21 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 22 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 23 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 24 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 25 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 26 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 27 Net net JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 28 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 29 Obesity Obesity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 30 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 31 Net net JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 32 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 33 Chronic Chronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 34 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 35 Net net JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 36 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 37 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 38 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 39 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 40 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 41 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 42 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 43 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 44 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 45 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 46 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 47 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 48 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 49 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 50 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 51 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 52 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 53 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 54 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 55 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 56 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 57 Relative Relative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 58 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 59 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 60 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 61 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 62 Presymptomatic Presymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 63 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 64 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 65 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1146 66 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 2 Reported report VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 3 Hazard Hazard NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 5 Infection[Rgn Infection[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1147 7 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 4 Infected Infected NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 5 Response Response NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 6 Policy Policy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1148 7 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1149 1 On on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1149 2 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1149 3 1000 1000 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1149 4 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1149 5 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1150 1 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1150 2 Response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1150 3 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1150 4 Weight[pdim weight[pdim NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1150 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 1 = = LS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 2 0 0 NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 3 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 5 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 6 307 307 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1151 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1152 1 Rgn Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1152 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1153 1 Albania Albania NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1153 2 SAVEPER SAVEPER NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1153 3 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1153 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1153 5 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1153 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 1 Day day NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 3 Chronic Chronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 5 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 6 1e-06 1e-06 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 7 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 9 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 10 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 11 Chronic Chronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 12 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 13 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1154 15 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1155 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 3 Chronic Chronic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 5 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 7 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1156 8 -SW -SW . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 1 Gen Gen NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 3 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 5 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 6 1e-06 1e-06 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 7 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 9 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 10 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 11 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 12 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 13 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1157 15 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1158 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1159 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1159 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1159 3 Liver Liver NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1159 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1159 5 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1160 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1160 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1160 3 -SW -SW . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 1 Gen Gen NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 3 Obesity Obesity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 5 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 6 1e-06 1e-06 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 7 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1161 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 3 Obesity Obesity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 5 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1162 7 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1163 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1164 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1164 2 Sens Sens NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1164 3 Obesity Obesity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1164 4 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1164 5 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1165 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1165 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1165 3 -SW -SW . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 1 Gen Gen NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 2 SensCovidUntestedAdmission SensCovidUntestedAdmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 3 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 4 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 5 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 6 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 7 dmnl dmnl NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 8 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 10 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 11 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 13 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 14 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 15 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 16 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 17 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 18 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 19 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1166 20 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 2 Response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 3 Policy Policy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 4 Weight[scuP Weight[scuP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 6 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 8 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 9 -Response -response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 10 Policy Policy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 11 Weight[scuP Weight[scuP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1167 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 2 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 4 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 5 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 6 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 7 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 8 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 10 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 11 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 12 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 13 Utility Utility NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 14 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 15 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 16 10 10 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 17 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 18 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 19 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 20 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 21 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 22 COVID COVID NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 23 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 24 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 25 0.7 0.7 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 26 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 27 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 28 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 29 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 30 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 31 Fatality Fatality NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 32 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 33 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 34 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 35 Sensitivity Sensitivity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 36 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 37 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 38 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 39 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 40 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 41 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 43 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 44 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 45 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 46 Sensitivity Sensitivity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 47 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 48 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 49 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 50 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 51 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 52 Sensitivity Sensitivity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 53 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 54 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 55 Testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 56 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 57 Capacity capacity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 58 ^ ^ : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 59 CmltErrPW CmltErrPW NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 60 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1168 61 / / . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1169 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1169 2 BaseError BaseError NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1169 3 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1170 1 DataCmltOverTime DataCmltOverTime NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1171 1 Sim Sim NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1171 2 Pseudo Pseudo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1171 3 Case Case NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1171 4 Fatality[Rgn fatality[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1171 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 4 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 5 Deaths death NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 7 Confirmed[Rgn confirmed[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1172 9 , , . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 1 Cumulative Cumulative NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 2 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 3 Cases Cases NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 4 SimCmltOverTime[Rgn SimCmltOverTime[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 5 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 6 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1173 8 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1174 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1174 2 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1174 3 Cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1175 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1175 2 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1175 3 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1175 4 Rate[Rgn rate[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1175 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1175 6 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 4 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 5 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 6 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 7 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 8 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 9 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 10 Simulated simulated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 11 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1176 12 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 5 FlowResiduals[Rgn FlowResiduals[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 6 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 7 Series Series NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 9 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 11 NA NA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 12 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 13 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 15 NA NA NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 16 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 18 FlowResiduals FlowResiduals NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 19 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1177 20 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 2 0 0 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 3 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 4 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 5 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 6 342 342 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 8 Switch switch VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 9 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 10 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 11 Response[Rgn response[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1178 13 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 5 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 6 > > XX cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 7 Government Government NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 8 Response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 9 Start Start NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 10 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 11 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 12 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 13 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 14 Poisson[Rgn poisson[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1179 16 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1180 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1181 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1181 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1181 3 -exp -exp ADD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1182 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1182 2 -Covid -Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1182 3 Acuity[Rgn Acuity[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1182 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1182 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1183 1 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1184 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1184 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1184 3 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 1 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 2 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 3 Negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 4 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 5 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 6 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 7 Testing[Rgn Testing[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1185 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1186 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 1 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 2 Testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 3 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 4 Infected infected JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 5 Untreated[Rgn untreated[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 7 + + `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 8 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 9 Admission admission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 10 Infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 11 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 12 Capacity Capacity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 13 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 14 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 15 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 16 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 17 Tests[Rgn tests[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1187 19 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1188 1 Active active JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1188 2 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1188 3 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1188 4 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1188 5 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1189 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1189 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1189 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1189 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1190 1 Subset[Rgn Subset[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1190 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 2 Symptomatic Symptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 3 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 4 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 5 Poisson[Rgn Poisson[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 7 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 8 Potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 9 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 10 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 11 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 12 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 13 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1191 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 2 Symptomatic Symptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 3 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 4 Negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 5 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 6 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 7 Living[Rgn Living[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 9 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1192 10 min min NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 2 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 3 Capacity Capacity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 4 Net Net NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 6 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 7 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 8 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 9 Indicated indicate VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 10 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 11 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 12 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 13 tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1193 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 2 Potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 4 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 5 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 6 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 7 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 10 Indicated indicate VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 11 fraction fraction NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 12 negative negative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 13 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 14 tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1194 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 2 Potential potential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 3 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 4 Demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 5 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 6 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 7 Population[Rgn population[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 9 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 10 Indicated indicate VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 11 fraction fraction JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 12 positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 13 demand demand NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 14 tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1195 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1196 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1196 2 Positive positive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1196 3 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 5 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 6 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 7 Per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 8 Million[Rgn million[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1197 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1198 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1199 1 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1199 2 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1199 3 Data[Rgn Data[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1199 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1199 5 / / NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 1 Initial Initial NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 2 Population Population NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 3 TIME time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 4 STEP step NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 5 = = : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 6 0.25 0.25 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 7 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 8 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 9 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 10 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 11 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 12 Adjust adjust VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 13 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 14 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 15 30 30 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 16 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 17 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 18 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 19 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 20 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 21 Downgrade downgrade VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 22 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 23 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 24 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 25 Downgrade downgrade VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 26 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1200 27 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1201 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1201 2 Response response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1201 3 Policy Policy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1201 4 Weight[dgtP Weight[dgtP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1201 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 1 + + JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 4 -Response -response NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 5 Policy Policy NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 6 Weight[dgtP Weight[dgtP NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1202 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 2 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 3 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 4 Downgrade downgrade VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 5 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 6 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 8 Downgrade downgrade VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 9 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 10 Policy policy NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 11 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 12 300 300 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 13 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 15 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 16 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 17 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1203 18 Herd herd VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1204 1 Immunity[Rgn Immunity[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1204 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1205 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1206 1 XIDZ XIDZ NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1207 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1207 2 Herd Herd NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1207 3 Immunity Immunity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1207 4 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 2 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 3 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 4 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 5 Upgrade upgrade VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 6 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 7 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 8 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 9 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 10 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 11 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 12 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 13 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1208 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1209 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1209 2 INITIAL initial NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1210 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1210 2 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1210 3 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1210 4 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1210 5 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1210 6 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1211 1 Hospitalized[Rgn Hospitalized[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1211 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1212 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1212 2 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1212 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1213 1 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1213 2 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1213 3 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1213 4 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1213 5 Duration duration NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1213 6 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1214 1 Onset onset NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1214 2 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1214 3 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1214 4 Delay delay NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1214 5 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 1 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 3 - - NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 4 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 5 Phase Phase NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 6 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 7 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 8 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 9 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 10 Incubation Incubation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 11 Period Period NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 12 Units Units NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1215 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1216 1 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1216 2 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1217 1 Simulated simulated JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1217 2 Tests[Rgn tests[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1217 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1218 1 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1219 1 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1219 2 Mortem Mortem NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1219 3 Tests test NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1220 1 Total[Rgn Total[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1220 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 2 Testing test VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 3 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 4 Living Living NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 5 Total total JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 6 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 7 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 8 Covid Covid NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 9 Patients[Rgn Patients[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 11 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 12 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 14 0 0 NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 15 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 16 min min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 18 Positive Positive NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1221 19 Candidates candidate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 1 Interested interested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 2 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 3 Testing Testing NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 4 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 5 Subset Subset NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 6 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 7 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 8 Official official JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1222 9 Cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1223 1 Simulated[Rgn Simulated[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1223 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 2 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 4 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 5 Cases[Rgn cases[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 8 SimCmltOverTime[Rgn SimCmltOverTime[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 10 Infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1224 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 1 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 2 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 3 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 4 Pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 5 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 6 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 7 Infected Infected NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 8 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 9 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 11 Confirmed[Rgn Confirmed[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1225 13 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1226 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 3 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 4 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 6 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 7 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 8 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 9 Confirmation confirmation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 10 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 11 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 12 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 13 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 14 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 15 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 16 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 17 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 18 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1227 20 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1228 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 3 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 4 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 6 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 7 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 8 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 9 Relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 10 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 12 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 13 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 14 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1229 15 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 1 if if IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 2 then then RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 3 else else RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 5 TstSts tststs NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 6 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 7 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 8 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 9 Confirmation Confirmation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 10 Impact Impact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1230 11 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 1 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 2 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 3 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 4 Pre pre JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 5 Detection[Rgn detection[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1231 7 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1232 1 INITIAL initial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 3 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 4 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 5 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 6 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 7 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 8 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 10 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 11 -Total -Total . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 12 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 13 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 14 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1233 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1234 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1235 1 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1235 2 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1235 3 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1235 4 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1235 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 3 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 5 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 7 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 8 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 9 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 10 Multiplier Multiplier NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 11 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 12 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 13 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 14 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 15 Relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 16 Risk risk NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 17 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 18 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 19 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 20 Presymptomatic Presymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 22 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 24 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 25 -Total -Total . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 26 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 27 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 28 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1236 31 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1237 1 Total Total NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1237 2 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1237 3 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1237 4 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1237 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 2 Baseline Baseline NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 3 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 5 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 7 Asymptomatic[Rgn asymptomatic[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1238 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 2 Relative relative JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 3 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 5 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 6 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 7 Presymptomatic Presymptomatic NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 9 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1239 10 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 1 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 2 Active Active NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 3 Test Test NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 4 Rate[Rgn Rate[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 6 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 7 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 8 Person person NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 9 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 10 Day Day NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 11 378 378 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 13 TstSts tststs NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 14 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 15 Tested test VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 16 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 17 PMAS PMAS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 18 Gap Gap NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 19 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 20 Tested[Rgn tested[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1240 22 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 2 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 3 -Allocated -allocate VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 4 Fration Fration NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 5 NonCOVID noncovid NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 6 Hospitalized[Rgn Hospitalized[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1241 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1242 1 ^ ^ . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 1 SensCovidUntestedAdmission SensCovidUntestedAdmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 2 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 3 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 4 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 5 Untested untested JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 6 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 7 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 9 Hospital[Rgn Hospital[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1243 11 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 1 Hospital hospital NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 2 Admission admission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 3 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 4 Utility Utility NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 5 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 6 Limited limited JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 7 Activities[Rgn Activities[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1244 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 1 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 2 exp exp NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 4 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 5 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 6 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 7 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 8 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 9 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 10 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1245 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 2 Fractional Fractional NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 3 Value Value NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 5 Limited Limited NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 6 Activities Activities NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 8 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 9 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 10 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 11 Utility Utility NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 12 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 13 Normal normal JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 14 Activities[Rgn activities[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 16 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 17 exp exp NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 19 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 21 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 22 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 23 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 24 Utility utility NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1246 25 Net[Rgn net[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1247 1 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 4 -Perceived -Perceived NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 5 Risk Risk NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 7 Life Life NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 8 Loss Loss NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 9 Voluntary Voluntary NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 10 Reduction Reduction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 12 Contacts[Rgn contacts[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1248 14 = = NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1249 1 F[Rgn F[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1249 2 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1249 3 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1249 4 F0[Rgn f0[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1249 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 3 1 1 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 4 -Min -Min VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 5 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 6 Fraction[Rgn fraction[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1250 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1251 1 + + CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1251 2 Min Min NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1251 3 Contact Contact NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1251 4 Fraction Fraction NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1251 5 ZIDZ ZIDZ NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 2 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 4 Average Average NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 5 Acuity Acuity NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 6 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 7 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 8 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 9 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1252 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 2 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 3 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 4 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 5 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 6 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 9 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 10 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 12 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 13 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 14 Weather Weather NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 15 Effect Effect NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 16 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 17 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 18 Weight Weight NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 19 Max Max NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 20 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 21 Test test NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 22 Goal goal NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 23 = = SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 24 0 0 NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 25 Units unit NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 26 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1253 27 dmnl dmnl NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1254 1 Infected infect VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1255 1 Unconfirmed unconfirmed JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1255 2 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1255 3 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1255 4 Detection"[Rgn Detection"[Rgn NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1255 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1255 6 + + . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 2 Confirmed confirm VBD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 3 Not not RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 4 Hospitalized[Rgn hospitalized[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 6 + + SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 7 sum sum NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 9 Hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 10 Infectious[Rgn infectious[rgn NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 11 , , , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 12 TstSts TstSts NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 13 ! ! . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1256 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 1 * * NFP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 2 " " `` cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 3 Post Post NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 4 - - NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 5 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 6 Phase Phase NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 7 Resolution resolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 8 Time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1257 9 " " '' cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 1 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 2 Hospitalized Hospitalized NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 3 Resolution Resolution NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 4 Time Time NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 5 Units Units NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 6 Spread Spread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 8 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 9 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 10 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 11 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 12 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 13 Icelandic icelandic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 14 population population NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 15 Clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 16 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 17 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 18 imaging imaging NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 19 manifestations manifestation NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 20 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 21 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 22 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 23 novel novel JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 24 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 25 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 27 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 29 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 30 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 31 multi multi JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 32 - - JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 33 center center JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 34 study study NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 35 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 36 Wenzhou Wenzhou NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 37 city city NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 38 Detection Detection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 39 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 40 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 41 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 42 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 43 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 44 different different JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 45 types type NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 46 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 47 clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 48 specimens specimen NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 49 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 50 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 51 chest chest NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 52 CT CT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 53 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 54 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 55 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 56 comparison comparison NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 57 to to IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 58 RT RT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 59 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 60 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 61 Stability Stability NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 62 issues issue NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 63 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 64 RT RT NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 65 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 66 PCR PCR NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 67 testing testing NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 68 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 69 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 70 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 71 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 72 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 73 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 74 patients patient NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 75 clinically clinically RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 76 diagnosed diagnose VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 77 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 78 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 79 Weather Weather NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 80 Conditions Conditions NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 81 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 82 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 83 Transmission transmission NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 84 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 85 Estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 86 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 87 Projections projection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1258 88 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 2 Clinical clinical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 3 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 5 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 6 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 7 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 8 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 9 China China NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 10 Characteristics Characteristics NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 11 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 12 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 13 important important JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 14 lessons lesson NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 15 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 17 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 18 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 19 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 21 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 23 outbreak outbreak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 24 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 25 China China NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 26 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 27 summary summary NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 28 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 29 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 30 report report NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 31 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 32 72 72 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 33 314 314 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 34 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 35 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 36 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 37 Chinese Chinese NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 38 Center Center NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 39 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 40 Disease Disease NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 41 Control Control NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 42 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 43 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 44 COVID-19 COVID-19 , cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 45 exacerbating exacerbate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 46 inequalities inequality NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 47 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 48 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 49 US US NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 50 Estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 51 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 52 infection infection NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 53 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 54 case case NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 55 fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 56 ratio ratio NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 57 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 58 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 59 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 60 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 61 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 62 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 63 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 64 age age NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 65 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 66 adjusted adjust VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 67 data datum NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 68 from from IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 69 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 70 outbreak outbreak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 71 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 72 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 73 Diamond Diamond NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 74 Princess Princess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 75 cruise cruise NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 76 ship ship NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 77 Estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 78 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 79 Infection Infection NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 80 Fatality fatality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 81 Rate rate NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 82 Among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 83 Symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 84 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 85 Cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 86 In in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 87 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 88 United United NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 89 States States NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1259 90 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 1 Health Health NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 2 Aff Aff NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 4 Millwood Millwood NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 6 Suppression Suppression NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 8 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 9 outbreak outbreak NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 11 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 12 municipality municipality NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 13 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 14 Vo Vo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 15 Estimating estimate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 16 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 17 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 18 proportion proportion NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 19 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 20 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 21 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 22 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 24 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 26 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 27 on on IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 28 board board NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 29 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 30 Diamond Diamond NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 31 Princess Princess NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 32 cruise cruise NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1260 33 ship ship NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 1 Universal Universal NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 2 Screening Screening NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 3 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 4 SARS SARS NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 5 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 6 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 7 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 8 Women Women NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 9 Admitted admit VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 10 for for IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 11 Delivery Delivery NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 12 Incubation Incubation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 13 Period Period NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 14 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 15 Other other JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 16 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 17 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 18 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 19 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 20 Novel Novel NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 21 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 22 Infections Infections NNPS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 23 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 24 Right Right NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 25 Truncation truncation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1261 26 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 1 A a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 2 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 3 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 4 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 5 Publicly publicly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 6 Available Available NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 7 Case Case NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 8 Data Data NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 9 Modeling model VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 10 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 11 rework rework NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 12 cycle cycle NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 14 capturing capture VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 15 multiple multiple JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 16 defects defect NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 17 per per IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 18 task task NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 19 Data data NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 20 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 21 using use VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 22 regression regression NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 23 and and CC cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 24 multilevel multilevel JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 25 / / SYM cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 26 hierarchical hierarchical JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 27 models model NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 28 Accelerating accelerate VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 29 Markov Markov NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 30 chain chain NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 31 Monte Monte NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 32 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 33 simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 34 by by IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 35 differential differential JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 36 evolution evolution NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 37 with with IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 38 self self NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 39 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 40 adaptive adaptive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 41 randomized randomized JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 42 subspace subspace NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 43 sampling sample VBG cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 44 An an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 45 interactive interactive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 46 web web NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 47 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 48 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 49 dashboard dashboard NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 50 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 51 track track VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 52 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 53 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 54 real real JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 55 time time NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 56 Simulation simulation NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 57 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 58 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 59 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 60 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 61 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 62 Early Early NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 63 Spread Spread NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 64 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 65 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 66 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 67 Iran Iran NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1262 68 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 1 Actual actual JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 2 versus versus IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 3 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 4 Cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 5 Estimates estimate NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 6 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 7 the the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 8 severity severity NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 9 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 10 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 11 disease disease NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 12 2019 2019 CD cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 13 : : : cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 14 a a DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 15 model model NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 16 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 17 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 18 analysis analysis NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1263 19 . . . cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 1 The the DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 2 Lancet Lancet NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 3 infectious infectious JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 4 diseases disease NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 5 Serial serial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 6 interval interval NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 7 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 8 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 9 among among IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 10 publicly publicly RB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 11 reported report VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 12 confirmed confirm VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 13 cases case NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 14 Serial serial JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 15 interval interval NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 16 of of IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 17 novel novel JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 18 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-284945-837qlk8y 1264 22 infections infection NNS cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 1 An an DT cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 2 interactive interactive JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 3 web web NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 4 - - HYPH cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 5 based base VBN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 6 dashboard dashboard NN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 7 to to TO cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 8 track track VB cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 10 in in IN cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 11 real real JJ cord-284945-837qlk8y 1265 12 time time NN