id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-271514-sls3bsm0	Dean, Natalie E.	Ensemble Forecast Modeling for the Design of COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials	2020-09-15		.txt	text/plain	2498	139	42	We recommend the use of ensemble forecast modeling – combining projections from independent modeling groups – to guide investigators identifying suitable sites for COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials. In this paper, we describe a simplified framework for the use of ensemble modeling to guide the selection and continued evaluation of sites for a vaccine efficacy trial, with a focus on the COVID-19 pandemic. Suggested guidelines are the ability to: (i) capture all geographic areas in the candidate list of sites, (ii) disaggregate to at least the first administrative level (e.g. state, province), though finer levels may be preferred for certain planning activities, (iii) project the COVID-19 symptomatic cumulative incidence, i.e. the number of new symptomatic infections of any severity divided by the total population size during a pre-specified period (three months suggested), and (iv) produce a minimum of 1000 simulated epidemics. We describe an ensemble modeling procedure to inform site selection for a vaccine efficacy trial planned during an ongoing epidemic.	./cache/cord-271514-sls3bsm0.txt	./txt/cord-271514-sls3bsm0.txt