Sustainability and forest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture approach J S T 1 2 B3 AQ14 5 a6 7 A8 R9 R10 A11 12 K13 L14 T15 S16 L17 C18 Y19 C20 F21 122 23 (24 L25 t26 T27 a28 s29 t30 (31 a32 s33 i34 235 a36 i37 i 0 d P R O O F ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelLUP 784 1–10 Land Use Policy xxx (2009) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / l a n d u s e p o l ustainability and forest transitions in the southern Yucatán: he land architecture approach .L. Turner II ∗ rizona State University, School of Geographical Sciences, PO Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85281-5302, United States r t i c l e i n f o rticle history: eceived 11 August 2008 eceived in revised form 4 March 2009 ccepted 22 March 2009 eywords: and architecture ropical forests ustainability a b s t r a c t Consistent with the challenges of sustainability science, land architecture offers a comprehensive approach to land system dynamics useful for numerous types of assessments, ranging from the vulnera- bility of coupled human–environment systems to forest transitions. With antecedents in several research communities, land architecture addresses the tradeoffs within and between the human and environmen- tal subsystems of land systems in terms of the kind, magnitude, and pattern of land uses and covers. This approach is especially cogent for changes in tropical forests, given the broad-ranging forces acting on them and the equally broad-ranging consequences of their loss. The rudiments of the land architecture approach are illustrated for changes in seasonal tropical forests in the southern Yucatán of Mexico, the D and change oupled human–environment systems ucatán alakmul biosphere reserve orest transition pivot of which is the Calakmul biosphere reserve. Simplifying the dynamics involved, the region-wide land architecture is the collective design of stakeholders with different land-use goals that favor tradeoffs in subsystem outcomes serving better either the reserve and related programs or the smallholder farmers that populate the region. A major tradeoff involves forest cover per se, which holds implications for forest transition theory. Evidence for an incipient transition involves the scale of analysis taken. The dynamics involved hold too much uncertainty to forecast a permanent transition to more forest cover and imply bust v A 38 ( 39 w 40 L 41 t 42 a 43 s 44 45 e 46 i 47 i 48 s 49 a 50 R R E C T Ethat more complex but ro . Introduction: the challenge Sustainability science creates new and complex challenges Holdren, 2008; Kates et al., 2001; Lubchenco, 1998; Raven, 2002). and systems vulnerable to global environmental change consti- utes one of these challenges (GLP, 2005; Gutman et al., 2004; urner et al., 2007). Vulnerability comprises a well-developed pproach in which specific types of hazards (perturbations or stres- ors) are connected to a subset of their consequences. Until recently, hese consequences were treated as biophysical or societal in kind Brooks et al., 2005; Cutter et al., 2000; Kasperson et al., 2005), n orientation inadequate for addressing the sustainability of land ystems, given the breadth of hazards and consequences operat- U N C O Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 ng on them (Cutter et al., 2000; Luers et al., 2003; Turner et al., 003a). Land systems are coupled human–environment systems nd require analytical approaches that treat this coupling explic- tly (Elmqvist et al., 2003; Folke et al., 2002; Reynolds et al., 2007).1 ∗ Tel.: +1 480 965 7533; fax: +1 480 965 8313. E-mail address: Billie.L.Turner@asu.edu. 1 A coupled human–environment system is one in which the societal and biophys- cal subsystems are so entwined that the system’s condition, function, and responses M 51 a c o ( t s s 264-8377/$ – see front matter © 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. oi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 ersions of the theory are required. © 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. ttempts to capture this complexity in vulnerability approaches Turner et al., 2003a,b) fails to address explicitly the tradeoffs ithin and between the human and environmental subsystems. and architecture, in contrast, offers an approach that accounts for hese tradeoffs and which can be used to address not only vulner- bility but a range of themes and issues of interest to land change cience (Turner et al., 2007). This paper defines land architecture and situates it within sev- ral research and practice traditions relevant to land systems, and llustrates the approach through a brief assessment of forest change n the southern Yucatán, linking the outcomes to the forest tran- ition theory—the subject of this special section (Rudel, Schneider nd Uriarte, this volume). The tropical forests of SY are part of a exican economic frontier in which a period of rapid deforestation orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 ppears to have run its course, signaling a transition to more forest 52 over in a new architecture. But has it? Guided by the objectives 53 f land change science, the Southern Yucatán Peninsular Region 54 SYPR) project has examined forest change in the region since 1997 55 o a hazard (or any external forcing) is predicated on the synergy of the two sub- ystems. Alternative terms referring to this synergy include social–environmental ystems (Folke et al., 2002) and coupled human–natural systems (Liu et al., 2007). dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02648377 http://www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol Original text: Inserted Text Southern Original text: Inserted Text USA⁎ Original text: Inserted Text humanenvironment Original text: Inserted Text Biosphere Reserve Original text: Inserted Text human-environment Original text: Inserted Text Biosphere Reserve. Original text: Inserted Text The Challenge Original text: Inserted Text human-environment mailto:Billie.L.Turner@asu.edu Original text: Inserted Text human-environment Original text: Inserted Text social-environmental Original text: Inserted Text human-natural dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 ANON Sticky Note United States is correct ANON Highlight ANON Sticky Note see this in ref to Q3 on query page. In bibilo it is Rudel et al. 2009. and it refers to their intro paper for this special feature. ANON Sticky Note and School of Sustainability, E D ING ModelJ 2 e Polic (56 s57 i58 259 260 61 w62 o63 o64 t65 v66 E67 g68 (69 (70 271 m72 u73 t74 s75 76 t77 o78 r79 f80 a81 t82 a83 h84 a85 86 i87 p88 h89 290 91 c92 o93 h94 i95 u96 t97 l98 b99 (100 i101 e102 e103 e104 e105 a106 o107 a108 a109 e d a s 110 s 111 O 112 t 113 L 114 g 115 S 116 e 117 ( 118 s 119 b 120 2 121 122 s 123 b 124 t 125 t 126 ( 127 T 128 a 129 t 130 s 131 r 132 L 133 i 134 l 135 u 136 P 137 g 138 c 139 o 140 d 141 142 d 143 e 144 e 145 e 146 a 147 d 148 f 149 d 150 t 151 o 152 w 153 154 o 155 G 156 e 157 b 158 a 159 t 160 ( 161 e 162 O R R E C T ARTICLELUP 784 1–10 B.L. Turner II / Land Us Turner et al., 2004).2 The project has developed a sufficient under- tanding of the land system dynamics to offer the illustration and nsights noted. . Elaboration of land architecture .1. Definition Land architecture (LA) refers to the structure of land systems, here structure refers to the kind, magnitude, and spatial pattern f land uses and covers in a bounded area. The three attributes f LA largely determine the capacity of the land system to deliver he environmental services expected by society under the pre- ailing land uses and their impacts on the human subsystem. nvironmental (or ecosystem) services are the benefits society ains from nature, classified as provisioning (e.g., water), regulating e.g., climate control), supporting (e.g., nutrient cycling), preserving e.g., biotic diversity) and cultural (e.g., recreational space) (MEA, 005). A sustainable LA delivers the environmental services while aintaining or improving the economic performance of the land ses without threatening the base function of the environmen- al systems to deliver the services in the first place—the goal of ustainability science (Kates et al., 2001). The term architecture applies because land systems have struc- ure and are “designed”. Their structure is internal to the definition f LA (above). Their design is linked governance. Most of the ter- estrial surface of the earth is governed, either de facto or de jure, acilitating or constraining land uses (e.g., Nagendra, 2007; Vester et l., 2007) directly through policy and zoning and indirectly through he level of enforcement of rules of land access and use, as well s infrastructure development (Watts et al., 2007). In this sense, uman action designs the pattern of land systems, if in circuitous nd indirect ways. The approach advocated here seeks foremost to understand the mplications of LAs on the operation of land systems treated as cou- led human–environment systems. This understanding, of course, olds clues for the design of new architectures. .2. Guiding principles Drawing on the insights gained from global environmental hange and sustainability-resilience research, the LA approach rec- gnizes that assessments of land change must move beyond their istorical emphasis on resource stocks (provisioning services) to nclude the full suite of environmental services, especially reg- lating, supporting, and preserving services (MEA, 2005), and he systemic structures that sustain them. As coupled systems, and systems involve tradeoffs among environmental services and etween the outcomes in environmental and human subsystems DeFries et al., 2004; Rosenzweig, 2003). These tradeoffs follow, n part, from the spatial incongruence of the different land cov- rs (i.e., environmental conditions) required to supply different nvironmental services (Chan et al., 2006; Nelson et al., 2008), specially as interrupted by human land uses. The complexity gen- rated by treating multiple services and tradeoffs between and U N C Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 mong subsystems is further amplified by the scalar dimensions f LAs (Turner, 1989). Land systems are connected locally to glob- lly with important up- and down-scale linkages. For example, sustainable solution established by a local-level LA may not 2 The SYPR project began in 1997 and has involved Clark University, Harvard For- st, University of Virginia, Rutgers University, University of Minnesota, and El Colegio e la Frontera Sur-Unidad Quintana Roo. It has been sponsored primarily by various wards from the NASA-LCLUC and NSF-CNH programs. d 163 f 164 1 165 f 166 i 167 t p e L t P R O O F PRESS y xxx (2009) xxx–xxx erve the same functions, if replicated to the regional or water- hed scales—a general scalar characteristic (Dark and Bram, 2007; penshaw and Taylor, 1981; van Gardingen et al., 1997). Despite his recognition (Wu, 2006; Wu et al., 2006), the scalar issues of A, especially regarding forest change, have focused primarily on lobal climate issues through modeling exercises (e.g., Henderson- ellers et al., 1993; O’Brien, 2000). Work on tipping points (Lenton t al., 2008) and regional syndromes of environmental change Schellnhuber et al., 1997) provide hints of the broader coupled ystem problems to which these scalar issues can be brought to ear. .3. Antecedents to land architecture LA differs from but has antecedents in landscape architecture, ustainable development, and landscape ecology–conservation iology. Landscape architecture has long examined the design of he land, foremost the built environment, with increasing atten- ion to ecological design and sustainable landscape architecture e.g., Thompson and Steiner, 1997; Van der Ryn and Cowan, 2007). he overwhelming emphasis within this field of study is planning nd design of outdoor space in regard to immediate environmen- al impacts, such as the urban heat island effect or urban drainage ystems in smart growth design (US and SGN, 2006), despite ecent calls for a broader environmental approach (Botequilha eitä and Ahern, 2002; Collinge, 1996). Likewise, LA is implied n environment and development research, especially that over- apping with land change science and seeking sustainable land ses (e.g., Kammerbauer and Ardon, 1999; Laris, 2002; Rao and ant, 2001). In this case, the non-built environment (e.g., older rowth forests, savannas and riparian forests) constitutes a criti- al facet in the land assessment. Attention overwhelmingly focuses n sustaining provisioning environmental services (e.g., food pro- uction). LA differs from landscape architecture and environment- evelopment in several ways. It aims to consider a full range of nvironmental services in the land system (above), and consid- rs environmental consequences from the land degradation and cosystem to the earth system levels. It examines all land covers nd uses, not the built or used environment only, and does so to evelop a systematic understanding of the land system, rather than ocusing foremost on those parts explicitly providing resource pro- uction and extraction (provisioning services). Finally, LA considers he critical scalar dimensions of land systems (above)—the impacts n environment services and human outcomes of LAs embedded ithin or covering other LAs. Work underway in landscape ecology and conservation biol- gy, much of it tied to land change science as registered in the lobal Land Project (GLP, 2005) and the Resilience Alliance (Berkes t al., 2003), provides foundational elements for LA. This work has egun to examine a full range of environmental services (Daily et l., 2001; MEA, 2005) and the spatial patterns of land covers on hose services and the structure and function of ecological systems Brosi et al., 2008; King, 1991; Moody and Woodcock, 1995; Pejchar t al., 2007; Rosenzweig, 2003; Turner, 1989). In addition, it has eveloped metrics and measures of land patterns, such as those ound in FRAGSTATS (Leitão et al., 2006; McGarigal and Marks, 995) and subsequent variants (McGarigal et al., forthcoming) that acilitate comparison of different architectures. LA shares these top- cal interests, goals for science and practice, and methods. Indeed, orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 he use of geographical information science and remote sensing to 168 roblem solve is shared as well with landscape architecture and 169 nvironment-development (e.g., Campagna, 2005; Hanna, 1999). 170 A, however, attempts to treat the human subsystem more fully 171 han have the eco- and bio-inspired approaches. The latter tend to 172 dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text Land Architecture Original text: Inserted Text human-environment Original text: Inserted Text Principles Original text: Inserted Text Land Architecture Original text: Inserted Text ecology-conservation Original text: Inserted Text savannas, Original text: Inserted Text 2008) ANON Sticky Note this is Turner et al. 1989 ANON Sticky Note change forthcoming to 2009 D ING ModelJ e Polic e173 c174 f175 t176 s177 –178 I179 (180 b181 e182 2183 184 f185 i186 s187 t188 m189 (190 a191 e192 2193 194 a195 i196 t197 f198 t199 a200 i201 W202 i203 a204 g205 h206 a207 a208 D209 A210 t211 a212 o213 e214 e215 i216 f217 f218 a219 t220 (221 o222 m223 iQ2224 a225 226 b227 a228 s e e t a 229 h 230 b 231 u 232 i 233 e 234 e 235 t 236 a 237 t 238 p 239 s 240 241 t 242 p 243 – 244 n 245 2 246 p 247 a 248 a 249 g 250 l 251 F 252 m 253 i 254 p 255 i 256 s 257 t 258 l 259 t 260 3 261 262 c 263 f 264 l 265 b 266 b 267 f 268 A 269 o 270 s 271 p 272 I 273 f 274 e 275 o 276 ( 277 3 278 O R R E C T E ARTICLELUP 784 1–10 B.L. Turner II / Land Us xamine changes in environmental services and extend the impli- ations to the human subsystem or develop generalization largely rom the biophysical subsystem and apply them to the coupled sys- em at large. Such efforts tend to place human decision making, ocietal structures, and such economic principles as substitutability critical elements of the human subsystem – into the background. n those cases where the human subsystem is treated more fully Daily, 1997; PNAS, 2007; Reynolds et al., 2007), as envisioned y the Global Land Project (2005), LA fuses with ecology-inspired fforts. .4. Significance for tropical forests Developing sustainable land systems is especially important or the tropical world for several obvious reasons: the need for mproved human well being throughout most of the tropics; the pecial role of tropical forests for the functioning of the earth sys- em and maintenance of biotic diversity (Steffen et al., 2004); the agnitude and pace of land changes underway in the tropical world Achard et al., 2002; Foley et al., 2005, 2007); and the expected neg- tive impacts of climate change in the tropics on both people and nvironment (e.g., Laurance, 1998; Lobell et al., 2008; Malhi et al., 007; Parry et al., 2007). Despite this significance, surprisingly little research has ddressed sustainable LA of tropical forest areas, although ecolog- cal work has linked the patterning of forests and opened lands o various impacts on environmental services. This patterning, or example, amplifies or attenuates fire impacts on intact forest hrough edge effects. The more edge exposed to fire, the more dam- ge to intact forests, and the biotic diversity it holds, especially n the first 500 m from the edge (Cochrane, 2001; Laurance and illiamson, 2001). Highly fragmented tropical forests with many rregularly shaped, open patches are apparently much more vulner- ble to the impacts of burning than are forests with a few large and eometrically shaped openings. Likewise, tree diversity tends to be igher as the patch size of forest increases (Hill and Curran, 2003), nd species diversity for flora and fauna tends to drop dramatically s forest fragments reach critical size-related tipping points (e.g., ale et al., 1994; also Daily et al., 2001). For example, one study in mazonia calculates that fragments of 100 ha or less lose one half of he species of birds (Ferraz et al., 2003). Forest fragmentation also ffects “. . .species invasions, forest dynamics, the trophic structure f communities, . . .. [and] appears to interact synergistically with cological changes such as hunting, fires, and logging. . .” (Laurence t al., 2002, p. 605). Fragmentation, depending on its size and result- ng land-cover attributes, may even affect climate. Modeling efforts or Amazonia indicate that sufficient pasture placed among forest ragments “increase the mean surface temperature (about 2.5 ◦C) nd decrease annual evapotranspiration (30% reduction), precipi- ation (25% reduction), and runoff (20% reduction) in the region” Nobre et al., 1991, p. 957; also Shukla et al., 1990). Specifically, pen forest patches less than 100 km2 and greater than 1000 km2 ay reduce rainfall, while those between these parameters may ncrease precipitation (Durieux et al., 2003; Li et al., 2006; Mahli et U N C Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 l., 2008).3 This important research provides a strong base on which to uild a broader understanding of sustainable LAs. It has yet to ddress the full range of environmental services (but see Dale et 3 Pielke et al. (1999) demonstrate how land changes, generating a new LA for outhern Florida, have had impacts on region precipitation estimated to rival or xceed those associated with global climate change. While this work does not mphasize the pattern of land uses and covers, the architecture is embedded in he assessment, however, demonstrating its potential import. 279 a 280 e 281 o 282 b 283 a p e t t P R O O F PRESS y xxx (2009) xxx–xxx 3 l., 1994; MEA, 2005), however, and explicit assessments of the uman subsystems are typically lacking. For the most part, eco- and io-inspired work focuses on the land-cover consequences of land ses, including those spatial dimensions captured in remote sens- ng and modeling assessments (e.g., Hall et al., 1995). Linkages from nvironment-development studies to forest fragmentation and the arth system have only begun (e.g., Sayer and Campbell, 2004), but his work need not pay explicit attention to LAs (but see Aldrich et l., 2006; Serrão et al., 1996). Much less attention has been given o reversing the research lens to examine the consequences of the atterning of LAs on income, human wellbeing, social justice, and o forth. Finally, tropical deforestation has largely been treated as a local- o state-directed activity – at least in regard to the institutions romoting, constraining, or regulating it (e.g., Bray et al., 2004) although these institutions may be linked to broader socioeco- omic dynamics (e.g., Hecht and Cockburn, 1990; Lambin et al., 001). Increasingly, however, international accords and protocols ortend important roles. As an example, international concern bout climate change and links to aerosols from landscape burning s well desertification in the Sahel filtered through funding pro- rams to affect land uses in western Africa, including patterns of andscape burning, with impacts on LAs and human well being (e.g., airhead and Leach, 1996; Laris, 2002). Similarly, the clean develop echanisms of the Kyoto protocol and its program aimed at reduc- ng emissions from deforestation and land degradation (REDD) is a ending international accord that will surely affect the LAs of trop- cal forests. If implemented, REDD will affect the amount, and in ome cases, location of forest preservation and restoration within he countries involved, adding yet another factor interacting with ocal-to-state policies and local-to-global economic forces to shape he LAs of forests. . Land architectures in the southern Yucatán The land systems in the southern Yucatán (SY) are the out- ome of the confluence of state, market, and other socio-cultural orces operating within several governance structures affecting and access and resource use, foremost those set by the Calakmul iosphere reserve (CBR) in cooperation with the MesoAmerican iological corridor (MBC; a United Nations program that aims to acilitate the movement of biota across the peninsula and Central merica), and the many ejidos or communally owned land units perating within and around and reserve. These structures help hape, intentionally and unintentionally, the kind, amount, and attern of land uses and covers—the land systems’ architectures. n turn, the different architectures have important implications or environmental services and on-land household livelihoods. By xploring as fully as possible these linkages, an expansive range f questions central to land change science are opened to analysis DeFries et al., 2004). .1. The study region The SY is a project-defined region that surrounds the CBR nd covers much of southeastern Quintana Roo and southwest- rn Campeche (Fig. 1; Turner et al., 2004). It delimits the meseta r rolling hill lands that form the spine of the Yucatán peninsula, eginning about 150 m amsl and rising to 350 m amsl, and captures orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 n important ecocline between the xeric forests of the northern 284 eninsula and the humid forests of El Petén, Guatemala (Lawrence 285 t al., 2004; Vester et al., 2007). Much of the SY (ca. 22,000 km2) was 286 he subject of systematic settlement from the middle of the twen- 287 ieth century, mostly by smallholder farmers within Mexico’s ejdio 288 dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text —critical Original text: Inserted Text —into Original text: Inserted Text Tropical Forests Original text: Inserted Text 2005; Foley et al., 2007); Original text: Inserted Text : Original text: Inserted Text —at Original text: Inserted Text —although Original text: Inserted Text Clean Develop Mechanisms Original text: Inserted Text Protocol Original text: Inserted Text Architectures Original text: Inserted Text Southern Original text: Inserted Text Biosphere Reserve Original text: Inserted Text Biological Corridor Original text: Inserted Text Study Region Original text: Inserted Text Peninsula, ANON Sticky Note change Mahli to Malhi ANON Highlight ANON Sticky Note Change Mahli to Malhi; Malhi et al. are in refs E D O F ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelJLUP 784 1–10 4 B.L. Turner II / Land Use Policy xxx (2009) xxx–xxx and C s289 l290 A291 292 e293 s294 a295 (296 o297 d298 s299 o300 o301 t302 c303 a304 V305 t306 e307 S308 h309 s310 m311 G312 313 l314 o315 o316 c317 g318 a319 k320 P A t t c 1 f 321 e 322 d 323 S 324 i 325 a 326 e 327 d 328 s 329 t 330 t 331 i 332 o 333 334 s 335 h 336 o 337 m 338 d 339 t 340 fi 341 c 342 o 343 a 344 H 345 2 346 C 347 I 348 R R E C T Fig. 1. The southern Yucatán (SY) ystem (communally owned lands).4 Its population exploded in the ast quarter of that century as major highways were developed. bout 35,000 legal residents currently reside there. In this tropical forest and economic frontier, smallholders mbarked on major land clearing for cultivation and pasture, in ome cases stimulated by state-run, development projects. As much s 12.7% or 2396 km2 of the forests of the SY had been cut by 2000 Vester et al., 2007, p. 993), registering the SY as a global “hot spot” f tropical deforestation (Achard et al., 2002).5 In tandem with the evelopment of the CBR to preserve biotic diversity and carbon torage, the rates of deforestation declined and farmers focused n temporal intensification (decreasing the crop-fallow cycles) f shifting cultivation (Vester et al., 2007) and the diversifica- ion of household income. This diversification includes commercial hili cultivation (Keys, 2004, 2005), investment in pasture (Klepeis nd Vance, 2003; Schmook and Radel, forthcoming; Schmook and ance, forthcoming), off-farm activities, and in some cases, interna- ional male labor migration (Radel and Schmook, 2008). Household conomies can be categorized in a number of ways (e.g., Radel and chmook, 2008), but in regard to on-farm activities two house- old extremes are useful for analysis: those largely maintaining a ubsistence orientation, and those aggressively involved in com- ercial chili production and investment in pasture (Alayón and urri, forthcoming). Four types of land governing units dominate: state-controlled ands, forest ejidos, private ranches, and agricultural ejidos. State- wned land is restricted to the center of the reserve; large portions f reserve’s periphery are composed of forest extraction and agri- U N C O Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 ultural ejidos. Access to ejido land is usually through usufruct rights iven to member households. A few private ranches are scattered cross the SY, most of which have cut their forest at least once and eep their lands in different phases of pasture, shrub, and secondary 4 It is noteworthy that almost all the SY was largely denuded by the Classic eriod Maya until their collapse and depopulation of the region between about .D. 850–950 (Turner et al., 2003). Hurricanes regularly disturb these forests on he century-level scale (Boose et al., 2003), and selective logging took out most of wo species of hardwoods during the last century (Klepeis, 2004). 5 These figures are based on the amount of land controlled by land units totally ontained within the demarcation of the SY. The total area of these lands covers 8,900.73 km2 (Vester et al., 2007, p. 992). e 349 350 t 351 d 2 u a p ( p P R Oalakmul biosphere reserve (CBR). orest. Together, reserve agents, ejido members, and, to a lesser xtent in terms of total land area, managers of private, generate ifferent land architectures that lead to a “collective design” for the Y. With the CBR in the center, agricultural ejidos and ranches dom- nate the eastern side of the SY and along the major north–south nd east–west highways. Some portion of older growth forest in the jidos is preserved, but otherwise households and ranch managers etermine the lands taken to cultivation and pasture, triggering ubstantial land-cover changes (Vester et al., 2007). Phasing into his century, however, the cutting of older growth forest began o wane and the intensification of uses on extant opened land ncreased, largely by reducing the period of fallow or age of sec- ndary vegetation cut. The decision to cut forest – older growth in the past and econdary forest today – takes place in increasingly complex ousehold circumstances predicated on lands controlled or rented; ff-farm economic activities, including remittances from migrant ale heads; state and NGO programs that have provided subsi- ies and direct payments for crops and double cropping (taking wo harvests from the same field in one calendar year); intensi- cation practices (e.g., disking and fertilizer use) and commercial ultivation; forest use activities6; investment in pasture in hopes f populating it with livestock; and for some ejidos, CBR rules bout forest cutting (Abizaid and Coomes, 2004; Busch, 2006; aenn, 2005; Keys and Roy Chowdhury, 2006; Klepeis and Vance, 003; Porter Bolland et al., 2006; Radel and Schmook, 2008; Roy howdhury and Turner, 2006; Schmook and Vance, forthcoming). n addition, this decision involves the type of forest available to the jido and household. The ecocline of the SY supports three main upland forest ypes: short stature, deciduous forest; medium stature, semi- orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 eciduous forest; and tall stature, humid forest (Pérez-Salicrup, 352 004; Lawrence et al., 2004; Vester et al., 2007). While short decid- 353 ous and tall humid forests tend to be distributed to the northwest 354 nd south, respectively, medium semi-deciduous forest dominates 355 6 An NGO forestry program (Forestry Pilot Plan) has been implemented in various arts of Quintana Roo, Mexico, including a few ejidos in the eastern side of the SY Bray et al., 2005; Primack et al., 1998; Taylor and Zabin, 2000). Complementary rograms to it have not succeeded well within the SY proper, however. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text Southern Original text: Inserted Text Biosphere Reserve Original text: Inserted Text nd; Schmook and Vance), off-farm Original text: Inserted Text nd Original text: Inserted Text nd). Original text: Inserted Text 850-950 Original text: Inserted Text north-south and east-west Original text: Inserted Text —older Original text: Inserted Text —takes Original text: Inserted Text disking, Original text: Inserted Text nd). ANON Sticky Note 2008 ANON Sticky Note change forthcoming to 2008 ANON Sticky Note 2009 ANON Sticky Note 2009 D O F IN PRESSG ModelJ e Policy xxx (2009) xxx–xxx 5 t356 i357 u358 m359 c360 s361 w362 s363 e364 b365 366 f367 I368 t369 t370 b371 p372 T373 m374 g375 t376 s377 3378 379 i380 a381 b382 r383 a384 d385 s386 t387 p388 l389 r390 2391 p392 a393 a394 m395 S396 3397 398 c399 r400 e401 i402 i403 i404 u405 l406 (407 s408 i409 s410 t q b c d 411 a 412 T 413 g 414 1 415 e 416 l 417 t 418 o 419 t 420 f 421 R 422 f 423 424 b 425 i 426 s 427 2 428 t 429 T 430 p 431 p 432 l 433 i 434 g 435 o 436 t 437 l 438 c 439 The second ejido, with much larger land pressures than first, 440 O R R E C T E ARTICLELUP 784 1–10 B.L. Turner II / Land Us he central part of the SY, mixed with the other two types, depend- ng on location. The location of ejidos, of course, determines the pland forest types available to its members, but lands under edium semi-deciduous and tall humid forests are preferred for ultivation, reflecting superior soil moisture conditions. In addition, olution sinks or bajos exist throughout the SY. These features infill ith thick clays that hold water throughout much of the year. They upport a low stature, inundated forest that, for the most part, farm- rs avoid. The amount of upland forests per household is affected y the proportion of ejido land composed of bajos. The different forest types, characterized by the abundance of dif- erent species more so than their presence (Pérez-Salicrup, 2004; barra-Manríquez et al., 2002), play important roles in maintaining he biotic diversity along the ecocline, and keystone species within hem are affected by human disturbance. The amount of distur- ance by forest type, including the connectivity among the types – art of the architecture of disturbance – is foundational to the MBC. he collective architecture of the SY created by the different land anagers plays a potentially important role in the function MBC, iven that the CBR and the region are centrally located between he drier north of the peninsula and the more humid Petén to the outh. .2. Results and observations: illustrating land architectures The illustration offered constitutes a major simplification and dealization of the otherwise complex coupled system of two ejidos nd their surroundings located in the central SY, an area dominated y medium semi-deciduous forest (above). The land classes are educed (aggregated) to intact forest (all forest types >25 years in ge) and disturbed land (cultivated, pasture, fallowed and invasive- ominated) as they existed in 2000. Fallowed lands are in various tages of successional growth – shrub to secondary forest – or aken over by bracken fern (Pteridium aquilinum). This fern is a fire- ropagated, invasive species that appears in all opened and burned and. The willingness of farmers “to fight” the invasion tends to be elated to how important cultivation is to the household (Schneider, 004, forthcoming; Schneider and Geoghegan, 2006). Only direct roduction from the land is considered in this illustration; excluded re off-farm employment, remittances, and specific types of NGO nd state assistance that households may entertain. The environ- ental and economic data are drawn from different parts of the YPR project research. .2.1. Two ejido comparison The first ejido (Fig. 2) has an architecture based on internal poli- ies that favor preservation of as much intact forest as possible, elying on NGO and other assistance to do so. Recognizing that this jido is large in size, with relatively low land pressures, agriculture s concentrated in a large patch of disturbance in the north, leav- ng the majority of ejido land to the south as one large forest patch n which upland and seasonally inundated forests remain largely ndisturbed. The resulting FRAGSTAT measures are indicative of ow levels of disturbance: patch density (PD = 0.02), edge density U N C Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 ED = 2.01), and landscape shape index (LSI = 2.67).7 This simple LA upports a variety of environmental services. For the CBR and MBC, t maintains biotic diversity, including habitat for top predators, by ustaining large patches of the major forest types with an abun- 7 Patch density is number of patches in the landscape divided by the area in ques- ion. Edge density is the total length of edges in the landscape divided by the area in uestion. Landscape shape index is the total length of edge in the landscape divided y the minimum total length of edge in the landscape. The larger the LSI, the more omplex the shape. n b T e p r o r P R O Fig. 2. Ejido one land architecture. ance of slow-maturing, keystone tree species, the fruits of which re essential dry-season food for fauna (Weterings et al., 2008). his LA preserves high levels of above ground biomass (carbon), a oal of the CBR. It captures large amounts of phosphorus (about kg/(ha-year)); Lawrence et al., 2007), the apparent limiting nutri- nt in the ecosystem, from atmospheric dust and maintains good evels of available phosphorus stocks in the system. This architec- ure may also assist in sustaining regional rainfall by the amount f water vapor released through evapotranspiration,8 and reduces he area prone to the invasive bracken fern (Eaton and Lawrence, orthcoming; Lawrence and Foster, 2002; Lawrence et al., 2004; ead and Lawrence, 2003; Rivera and Calmé, 2006; Schneider, orthcoming; Vester et al., 2007). Cultivation in the ejido is largely classical milpa (slash-and- urn maize) modified by a year or two of commercial chili nterspersed within each crop-fallow cycle. In this case, only mall investments in fertilizers and pesticides are made (Keys, 004; Roy Chowdhury and Turner, 2006), largely for chili, while he concentrated cultivation involves repeated crop-fallow cycles. his concentration triggers significant declines in available soils hosphorous (Lawrence et al., 2007) and persistent bracken fern roblems (Schneider, 2004). To maintain cropping, farmers add abor to weed the fern and, in longer run, must consider replen- shing the deplete phosphorus or expand cultivation into the older rowth forest. On-farm income for the ejidos’ largely subsistence riented households is only about US $40/ha, not accounting for he value of the consumption crops grown (Keys, 2004). This low evel of income suggests that the inputs necessary to sustain the urrent cultivation system must come with off-farm activities. orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 ot only employs most of its land in cultivation but is occupied 441 y households of aggressive, commercial-based farmers (Fig. 3). 442 he resulting architecture is a mass of opened and bracken-fern 443 8 As yet the project has not proven the evapotranspiration observation. Local farm- rs claim, however, that the more forest cut, the drier the region becomes. Local recipitation data are sparse and temporally incomplete, but suggest a decline in ainfall over the last several decades for those years without a hurricane, a period f major land clearing in the SY and beyond (Lawrence et al., 2004). This decline, if eal, may be driven by many factors other than local land changes. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text —part Original text: Inserted Text —is Original text: Inserted Text Observations: Illustrating Original text: Inserted Text >25 yrs Original text: Inserted Text —shrub Original text: Inserted Text —or Original text: Inserted Text 2006; Original text: Inserted Text Ejido Comparison Original text: Inserted Text Shape Index Original text: Inserted Text One Land Architecture. Original text: Inserted Text kg/ha/yr; Original text: Inserted Text nd; Original text: Inserted Text 2006; Original text: Inserted Text US$40/ha, ANON Sticky Note 2006 ANON Sticky Note 2006 ANON Sticky Note 2009 E D F ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelJLUP 784 1–10 6 B.L. Turner II / Land Use Policy xxx (2009) xxx–xxx i444 r445 f446 b447 p448 o449 t450 g451 T452 a453 r454 o455 f456 t457 458 i459 f460 i461 r462 h463 f464 e465 e466 f467 468 m469 T470 m471 t472 p473 s474 d475 a476 n477 i478 r479 3480 481 o482 e483 t484 (485 k486 l 487 c 488 e 489 w 490 b 491 i 492 a 493 b 494 g 495 496 i 497 w 498 t 499 a 500 f 501 t 502 e 503 t 504 i 505 p 506 f 507 b 508 4 509 510 d 511 i 512 w 513 t 514 f 515 T 516 s 517 t 518 i 519 p 520 t 521 N C O R R E C T Fig. 3. Ejido two land architecture. nvaded land, with large amounts of secondary forest that will be ecut for cultivation and pasture. Small patches of older growth orest are present, the largest in the southwest portion of the ejido, ut they are not well connected and offer much less habitat for top redators. PD (0.16), ED (5.91), and LSI (4.20) reflect the high levels f disturbance observed in this ejido, with its reduced habitat for op predators. The prevalent secondary forest is dominated by fast rowing species, and the keystone species are too immature to fruit. otal biomass and above ground carbon decline significantly (Eaton nd Lawrence, forthcoming); the capture of dust-blown phospho- us is reduced by the amount of secondary growth and the loss f soil phosphorus from cropping is significant; and the secondary orest produces less evapotranspiration, perhaps affecting precipi- ation (see above). The more level but non-inundated lands are disked and planted n rows for intensive chili production, with major investments in ertilizers and pesticides to offset the negative consequences of ncreased crop-fallow cycles (Keys and Roy Chowdhury, 2006). Bar- ing a drought or hurricane, these commercial farmers generate a igh farm-based income, reaching more N $100/ha, not accounting or the value of crops directly consumed (Keys, 2004). The income arned is invested in off-farm activities and in planting pasture with ye towards gaining livestock in the future (Schmook and Radel, orthcoming). The differences in the LAs of these idealized ejidos reflect much ore than the different aspirations and land uses of their members. hey have major implications for the tradeoffs between environ- ent services and human outcomes, and thus the sustainability of he land systems for the farmers and the CBR and MBC. The first case rovides a LA consistent with the needs of the reserve and corridor, coring well in most of the environmental services considered, but oes not perform well in regard to on-farm food and income gener- tion. The second case improves on-farm income, barring a major atural hazard or failure in the chili market, but does so by signif- cantly reducing environmental services, especially those that the eserve and corridor seek to maintain. .2.2. Scalar comparisons The variants of the two LAs (above) among the many ejidos and U Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 ther land units in the SY provide a measure of architectural het- rogeneity that differentially serve the goals of CBR and MBC, and he smallholder farmers. If the LA of the second or deforested ejido Fig. 3) were replicated throughout the SY (Fig. 1) and chili mar- ets remain strong, on-farm income across the region would rise, at – 522 s c t a P R O O Fig. 4. Multi-Ejido land architecture. east initially. The environmental services required for the reserve, orridor, and ecocline would, of course, decline. Over the long haul, conomical substitutes for soil phosphorus and other lost nutrients ould be required to maintain on-farm income, all other factors eing equal, and rainfall might be reduced regionally. Alternatively, f the LA of first or forest preservation ejido (Fig. 2) were replicated cross the SY, the aims of the CBR and MBC would be well served ut at the cost of the on-farm livelihoods that smallholders would enerate. Similarly, the sustainability of any ejidos’ LA involves the dynam- cs generated by the totality of the individual ejido architectures in hich it is embedded. Consider, for example, the forest preserva- ion ejido that renders the biophysical outcomes sought by the CBR nd MBC. This ejido is surrounded by others (Fig. 4) maintaining undamentally different LAs weighted to outcomes more favorable o the human subsystem, as in the case of the second ejido. The jido set thus maintains a LA more similar to the aggressively cul- ivated ejido (Fig. 3). Indeed, ED (8.26) and the LSI (10.33) actually ncrease for the ejido set, compared to that ejido. Even the large atch of older growth upland forest in that ejido is isolated, cutoff rom other large patches of upland forest, raising questions about iotic diversity and the ecocline functions. . Implications for forest transition Despite its simplification, the illustration above indicates that ifferent LAs present different implications for sustainability by ndividual land management units and by those units taken as a hole. Currently, the LAs generated by agricultural ejidos outside he CBR are not necessarily compatible with the preservation of orest cover and environmental services that the reserve seeks. he thin soils and markets in this frontier economy, in turn, raise erious questions about the capacity of all ejidos, but especially hose in the reserve with restrictions on forest–land use, to sustain mproved livelihoods by way of on-farm activities alone. A com- romise architecture of the land systems that fulfills the needs of he two principal stakeholders – farmers/ejidos and agents/reserve may evolve, but it too will involve tradeoffs that must be con- orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 idered carefully. Among these tradeoffs is the amount of forest 523 over for the full set of forest types in the SY, apparently critical for 524 he maintenance of biotic diversity as well as carbon storage. The 525 nswer holds insights for forest transition theory. 526 dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text Two Land Architecture. Original text: Inserted Text nd); Original text: Inserted Text N$ 100/ha, Original text: Inserted Text nd). Original text: Inserted Text Comparisons Original text: Inserted Text Land Architecture. Original text: Inserted Text Forest Transition Original text: Inserted Text forest-land Original text: Inserted Text —farmers/ Original text: Inserted Text —may ANON Sticky Note change forthcoming to 2008 ANON Sticky Note 2009 D ING ModelJ e Polic 527 s528 t529 e530 s531 d532 e533 m534 e535 c536 t537 s538 L539 o540 w541 l542 i543 a544 b545 p546 i547 o548 “549 d550 f551 t552 l553 s554 (555 l556 f557 f558 559 c560 f561 i562 t563 t564 t565 d566 f567 c568 i569 s570 V571 t572 f573 a574 m575 u576 a b a p f K t a n d l 577 w 578 e 579 m 580 U 581 w 582 e 583 M 584 i 585 T 586 M 587 a 588 p 589 c 590 a 591 e 592 h 593 p 594 S 595 596 t 597 t 598 h 599 ( 600 l 601 t 602 u 603 S 604 e 605 i 606 e 607 o 608 609 d 610 c 611 F 612 ( 613 o 614 i 615 c 616 s 617 e 618 a 619 r 620 l 621 e 622 623 R E C T E ARTICLELUP 784 1–10 B.L. Turner II / Land Us Forest transition theory developed from assessments of large- cale and “permanent” reforestation in the western world, linked o major shifts in the base economy of the area in question from xtractive and agricultural activities to industrial production and ervice economies (e.g., Mather, 1992; for details see Rudel, Schnei- er and Uriarte, this volume). The population formerly engaged in xtractive activities follows these changes because of the enhanced aterial livelihoods gained by doing so; thus the demand for xtractive uses of forest lands declines and long-term forest land- over returns (i.e., Granger, 1995; Walker, 2008). Perz (2007) links he theory to modernization principles, which, he claims, have not ucceeded well in the tropical word (for a critique, Walker, 2008). ambin et al. (2001), however, note the variance and complexity f land dynamics in tropical forests suggestive of multiple path- ays towards forest recovery, and Rudel et al. (2005) point to at east one such pathway—forest product scarcity leading to replant- ng trees.9 Given that successional forest growth may be identified s a sign of a forest transition or the incipient stages of it, the num- er of potential pathways enlarges.10 For example, an arrested first hase of the forest transition can be detected throughout the trop- cal world. This reduced pace of deforestation and regeneration f forest cover occurs not because the local-to-regional economy develops” or forest products become scarce. Rather, economic con- itions are such that extractive land uses, including agriculture, ail to yield livelihood expectations. Land managers seek alterna- ive livelihoods, reducing pressures on use of forested or cleared ands, in some cases assisted by NGO and state agencies which sub- idize or directly pay for non-timber, forest extraction programs e.g., Bray et al., 2004). Such conditions, a variant of which may be inked to the creation of parks and reserves with their rules about orest use, have been framed by Rudel et al. (2002) as a hollow rontier. Portions of the SY may be witnessing a forest transition asso- iated with an arrested first phase: rapid deforestation has halted or various reasons and some formerly denuded lands are in var- ous stages of forest recovery. This recovery has little to do with he two recognized pathways to forest transition (above), either angible economic development or forest scarcity replanting, given he large tracts of older growth in the region. Rather, the forest ynamics underway are attributable to at least three interactive actors that affect the collective design of land systems in the SY: hanges in the Mexican agrarian economy, part of its neoliberal- zation program that de-emphasizes support (direct payments and ubsidies) of the ejido system (de Janvry et al., 1997; Liverman and ilas, 2006; Randall, 1996); the creation of the CBR and MBC with heir emphasis on forest preservation, including rules that restrict orest cutting among ejidos residing within the reserve (Primack et U N C O R Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 l., 1998); and the SY’s status as an economic frontier in which land anagers search for, but have not found low-risk, good profit land ses (Busch, 2006; Schmook and Vance, forthcoming).11 9 Transition theory must resolve the role of successional versus planted and man- ged regrowth. Much of the transition in the western world, on which they theory is ased, involved successional processes of forest regrowth, leading to functioning, if ltered, forest ecosystems. Identification of forest transition in the tropics includes lanted trees, as in plantations (e.g., Rudel et al., 2005), which need not provide a ull array of environmental services expected from forest cover (see Chazdon, 2008; auppi et al., 2006). 10 Bray et al. (2004), for instance, refer to a more forested, sustainable land systems o the north of the SY, an interpretation predicated on including successional growth re more or less permanent forest cover that will move into old growth phases. 11 It is noteworthy that large-scale, mechanized cultivation takes place to the orthwest of the SY region among high-capital investing, Mennonite farmers. These evelopments are sufficiently recent that the longer-term economic viability of the and system cannot be determined. d 624 a 625 t 626 r 627 C 628 o 629 2 630 s 631 o 632 t v O i F i P R O O F PRESS y xxx (2009) xxx–xxx 7 The first factor and indirectly, the second are partially consistent ith forest transition theory. While the Mexican and SY regional conomy have not yet entered the stages of economic develop- ent that triggered forest recovery in Western Europe and the nited States, the actions of the Mexican state have been taken ith economic development in mind. The decline in support for jidos is part of state-led initiatives to modernize the economy of exico by de-emphasizing “marginal” agriculture, while attempt- ng to increase non-farm alternatives to the affected land users.12 he CBR and MBC, in turn, have been implemented partly because exico believes it can improve the SY and state economies through rchaeo-eco-tourism, with spinoffs assisting local people, while reserving and enlarging the area of forest as part of Mexico’s ommitment to international environmental concerns (Primack et l., 1998). In this reality, policy has shifted to push the regional conomy beyond extractive activities, which in turn has pushed ouseholds to explore ways to diversify their income-generating ortfolios, including illegal international migration (Radel and chmook, 2008). The third factor, which involves the concentration of agricul- ural activity on extant opened lands, has yet to reveal land uses hat, alone, can lead to sustained and improved household liveli- oods. Commercial chili production is a boom-bust proposition Keys, 2004); livestock ventures in past have proven difficult in arge part due to the paucity of water during the extended win- er dry season; and smallholder farmers do not have the assets to ndertake large-scale farming akin to Mennonites just beyond the Y borders (in Campeche and Belize). Diversifying the household conomy, which in some cases appears to reduce forest clearing and ncrease the area of successional growth, is a safety measure that jido members employ given the precarious economic performance f the land systems. It is noteworthy that the first and third factors are especially ynamic compared to the second, and they have the potential to hange dramatically the collective design of the LA of the region. or example, households have not relinquished claims to the land e.g., Abizaid and Coomes, 2004), which is retained as a safety net r with an eye towards projected, higher reward uses. Off-farm ncome, including state payments intended for other purposes, is ommonly directed to expanding pasture, especially among ejidos urrounding the CBR that do not have formal constraints on for- st–land uses (Busch, 2006; Klepeis and Vance, 2003; Schmook nd Radel, forthcoming; Schmook and Vance, forthcoming). This esponse leads to conditions akin to the hollow frontier. Should ivestock production ultimately prove sufficiently rewarding, defor- station rates for the SY are likely to rise again with shifts in LAs. The appearance of an incipient forest transition in the SY is also etermined by the scale of analysis employed. The CBR and its rules bout cutting forest lands, which has halted deforestation within he reserve, provide a region-wide outcome indicative of forest estoration (Rueda, 2007). In contrast, ejidos to east and west of the BR either continue to deforest, if at modest rates, or show little sign f permitting opened lands to return to older growth status (Rueda, 007). If these trends hold, the SY will maintain a bifurcated LA con- istent. Enforced policies of the CBR will induce substantial stands f old growth forest within the reserve, although not a result of orest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture 06 he modernization of the regional economy in which smallholders 633 oluntarily move into other economic sectors or of forest scarcity. 634 utside the reserve, however, deforestation will continue depend- 635 ng of the circumstances, creating a highly fragmented and open 636 12 NGO-sponsored programs focused on non-timber, forest extraction, such as the orestry Pilot Plan, are also challenged by the macro-economic changes underway n Mexico (Bray et al., 2005; Taylor and Zabin, 2000). dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text and associates Original text: Inserted Text and colleagues Original text: Inserted Text nd). Original text: Inserted Text and colleagues Original text: Inserted Text forest-land Original text: Inserted Text nd; Original text: Inserted Text Vance), off-farm activities, and ANON Sticky Note 2008 ANON Highlight ANON Sticky Note Again see Q3. This in reference to bibilo of Rudel et al. 2009... ANON Sticky Note 2009 ANON Sticky Note 2009 E D ING ModelJ 8 e Polic l637 b638 o639 o640 i641 e642 a643 s644 g645 646 v647 t648 d649 l650 r651 i652 m653 2654 m655 5656 657 m658 a659 f660 T661 o662 s663 t664 c665 o666 T667 y668 i669 h670 o671 d672 p673 a674 i675 t676 R677 a678 l679 UQ3680 681 A682 683 s684 s685 t686 P687 r688 f689 d690 o691 i692 i693 p R 694 A 695 696 697 A 698 699 700 A 701 702 703 A Q4 704 705 706 B 707 708 709 B 710 711 712 713 714 B 715 716 B 717 718 719 B 720 721 B 722 723 B 724 725 726 B 727 728 C 729 C 730 731 C 732 733 C 734 735 C 736 737 C 738 739 740 D 741 742 D 743 744 745 D 746 747 748 D 749 750 D 751 752 d 753 754 755 D 756 757 E Q5 758 759 E 760 761 762 F 763 764 F 765 766 767 F 768 769 770 N C O R R E C T ARTICLELUP 784 1–10 B.L. Turner II / Land Us andscape on all but the south side of reserve which abuts the Maya iosphere reserve in Guatemala. Such a bifurcated, general LA not nly raises questions about forest transition but about the capacity f the CBR to function adequately (Vester et al., 2007). Alternatively, f no acceptable agricultural alternatives emerge in the region and conomic opportunities elsewhere in the Mexico or abroad draw way much of the population, reducing land pressures, the lands urrounding the CBR will cease being deforested and successional rowth may be permitted to reach older growth stages. Which of these situations, or some other, prevails will pro- ide insights about forest transition theory. It is clear, however, he pace of deforestation and reforestation observed for the region epends on lens taken. The variations observed are differentially inked to forest transition theory, suggesting that the base concept equires elaboration and modification (Mather, 2007), that reduces ts elegance but provides greater explanatory power. Among these odifications is the role of direct government intervention (Mather, 007), as in the case of establishing parks and reserves, as well as acro-policies guiding the rural economy. . Conclusions The search is underway to develop tropical forest lands in a ore sustainable ways, foremost with an eye towards preserving nd conserving, as much as possible, the critical roles of tropical orests in the maintenance of the earth system and biotic diversity. o date, this search has not systematically addressed a full array f environmental and human tradeoffs inherent in different land ystems and amplified by the consideration of the architecture of hose systems. The land architecture approach appears to be espe- ially cogent for questions of the coupled systems consequences f land change and such themes and theories as forest transition. he SY example illustrates how the collective design of regional LA ields tradeoffs supporting differing land-use goals with different mplications for the functioning of CBR and MBC and for house- old livelihoods. The recent changes in the land architecture hints f a possible forest transition, but one only ephemerally embed- ed in the rationale of forest transition theory. The current arrested hase of initial deforestation, if it should prevail, suggests possible lterations of or additions to the formal theory. Given sociopolit- cal uncertainties in the Mexican and SY regional economies, the ransitions of forest cover in SY cannot be forecasted adequately. egardless, the LAs for the region will continue to affect the inter- ctions and the outcomes of the coupled (human–environment) and systems. ncited references Rudel et al. (2009) and Turner et al. (1989). cknowledgements I recognize the Global Land Project of the International Geo- phere–Biosphere Programme and International Human Dimen- ions Programme, both of which influenced the development of he ideas presented here. I am indebted to the Southern Yucatán eninsular Region project personnel who have undertaken the base esearch on which I draw. I particularly thank Deborah Lawrence U Please cite this article in press as: Turner II, B.L., Sustainability and f approach. Land Use Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.0 or her comments on and Marco Millones for his assistance in the evelopment of this paper. I thank Thomas Rudel for his comments n drafts of this paper and, Laura Schneider, Maria Uriate and he for nviting me to participate in the activity that generated this paper n the first place. Finally, I think the anonymous reviewer(s) for ointing out several inadequacies in earlier versions of this work. F 771 F P R O O F PRESS y xxx (2009) xxx–xxx eferences bizaid, C., Coomes, O.T., 2004. Land use and forest fallowing dynamics in season- ally dry tropical forests of the southern Yucatan peninsula. Land Use Policy 21, 71–84. chard, F., Eva, H.D., Steibig, H.-J., Mayaux, P., Gallego, J., Richards, T., Malingreau, J.P., 2002. Determination of deforestation rates of the world’s humid tropical forests. Science 297, 999–1002. ldrich, S., Walker, R., Arima, E., Caldas, M., Browder, J., Perz, S., 2006. Land-cover and land-use change in the Brazilian Amazon: smallholders, ranchers, and frontier stratification. Econ. Geogr. 82, 265–288. layón A., Gurri, F.D., forthcoming. 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Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in 1045 Ecology: Methods and Applications. Springer, Dordrecht. 1046 dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.03.006 Original text: Inserted Text perspectives Original text: Inserted Text distribution, ecology and Original text: Inserted Text primates Original text: Inserted Text Assoc, Original text: Inserted Text Env. Original text: Inserted Text X. 2007. Original text: Inserted Text Land-cover Original text: Inserted Text nd. Original text: Inserted Text C. nd. Original text: Inserted Text yucat Original text: Inserted Text The Original text: Inserted Text Agr. Original text: Inserted Text Springer-Verlag Original text: Inserted Text Agr. Original text: Inserted Text human-environment Original text: Inserted Text Nat. Acad. Sci. USA100 Original text: Inserted Text Nat. Acad. Sci. USA100 Original text: Inserted Text Human-Wildland Original text: Inserted Text Nat. Acad. Sci. USA104 Original text: Inserted Text Landscape Original text: Inserted Text Washington DC Original text: Inserted Text Mexico. Forest ANON Sticky Note This refers to covering article for the special feature in which my article is to appear. I don;t know the specifics to it. ANON Sticky Note 2009 37:1015-1025. ANON Sticky Note 2008 36:891-908. ANON Sticky Note 2006 5: 91-107 Sustainability and forest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture approach Introduction: the challenge Elaboration of land architecture Definition Guiding principles Antecedents to land architecture Significance for tropical forests Land architectures in the southern Yucatán The study region Results and observations: illustrating land architectures Two ejido comparison Scalar comparisons Implications for forest transition Conclusions Uncited references Acknowledgements References