College and Research Libraries 380 College & Research Libraries itself expects to lose money on 80 percent of the books it publishes; the problem oc- curs in recognizing which 80 percent. 1° Fi- nally, no one doubts that undergraduates don't read Choice. But as Evan Farber has September 1983 pointed out, perhaps it is our responsibil- ity to further educate library users in the value of knowing ''how to select books be- fore reading them, not just how to use the card catalog. " 11 REFERENCES 1. The Idler, no.86 (1 Dec. 1759). 2. Choice, 1:13-15 (Mar. 1964). 3. Ibid. 4. Beth Macleod, ''Library Journal and Choice: A Review of Reviews,'' Journal of Academic Librarianship, 7:23-28 (Mar . 1981). 5. Daniel Ream," An Evaluation of Four Book Review Journals," RQ, 19:149-53 (Winter 1979). 6. Bowker Annual of Library and Book Trade Information. (26th ed.; New York: Bowker, 1981), p.328, p.355. 7. Richard Hume Werking and Charles M. Getchell, Jr ., "Using Choice as a Mechanism for Allocating Book Funds in an Academic Library," College and Research Libraries, 42:134-38 (Mar. 1981). 8. Allen Kent, and others, Use of Library Materials: The University of Pittsburgh Study. (New York: Dek- ker, 1979), p.10. 9. Beth Macleod, "Library Journal and Choice: A Review of Reviews," p.27. 10. New York Times, (15 Jan. 1982), sec. 3, p.22. 11. American Libraries, 7:515 (Sept . 1976). A Methodology for Estimating the Size of Subject Collections, Using African Studies as an Example Joseph J. Lauer This note provides a formula for esti- mating the number of Africana titles in large libraries using the Library of Con- gress classification schedule. The meth- ods used to establish this formula could be used for other subjects, and an analysis of the completeness of LC class numbers for a given subject would seem to be an essen- tial first step in developing a useful con- spectus or in compiling a questionnaire on subject strengths. Shelflist measurement has become a fairly common method of determining the number of titles held in broad subject cate- gories. But most subjects are scattered to some extent, and this problem is espe- cially severe with area studies. For exam- ple, books about Africa are found throughout the LC schedule, with a con- centration in the DT section. Thus, before one can make an objective estimate of the total number of Africana titles, it is neces- sary to establish what percent of all cata- loged Africana faHs in . the DT section (which is exclusively Africana). There are at least two ways to determine the percentage of all Africana falling in the DT section: (1) describe and analyze the Joseph J. Lauer is Africana bibliographer, University Research Library, University of California, Los Angeles . distribution of titles in a library with a sep- arate shelflist; or (2) do the same for a li- brary with a "comprehensive" and de- tailed conspectus of holdings on a subject. The first method is used here because sep- arate Africana shelflists do exist at Michi- gan State University (MSU) and at Indiana University-Bloomington (IU). Further- more, the au~hor does not know of any complete list of Africana call numbers, and he doubts that any conspectus for area studies would locate more than 95 percent of the classified titles. The supplementary shelflists for Afri- cana books in the MSU and IU libraries were measured in 1980 by the author (at MSU) and by Bill Rafferty under the su- pervision of David Easterbrook (at IU). All data was reported in percentages rather than inches or centimeters, and no at- tempt was made to convert titles into vol- umes. Both the distribution of multicard sets for single titles and measuring errors are assumed to be random. In addition to uncataloged titles, which are not repre- sented in either shelfllst (nor in these li- braries' reports to the Joint Acquisitions List of Africana), the measurements also ex- cluded microforms and government docu- ments not classified according to the LC schedule. Table 1 demonstrates that Africana titles appear in each of the large LC classes, in a distribution pattern that is surprisingly similar to that for all titles at the Library of Congress. But what is needed are percent- ages for the sections of the LC classifica- tion that are exclusively Africana. A com- prehensive list would include hundreds of categories, but Boston University's Afri- can Studies Library did identify 20 sec- tions which they now shelve separately in their African alcove . Using these 20 as a start, those covering less than one percent of the Africana at MSU and IU were dropped and others covering at least one Research Notes 381 percent were added.* Table 2 presents the percentages for eleven core categories, which accounted for approximately 57 percent of the total in the separate shelf- lists. In addition to the raw data for a formula, table 2 lists information on the compre- hensiveness of the two specialized shelf- lists. t As expected, omissions were not randomly distributed. The DT section was generally more complete, while the MSU Africana shelflist was poor in its coverage of literature, and the IU African Studies shelflist lacked many of the materials pur- chased on Near East funds. After adding the extra titles from the main shelflist, and assuming that the Africana for categories not listed in table 2 are omitted at the same rate as the non-DT categories in table 2, one finds 34.5-36.5 percent of Africana falls in DT, 19.5-21.1 percent falls in the other 10 listed in table 2, and 42.4-46.0 percent falls outside these call numbers. Therefore, one can multiply the titles in DT by 2.8 to estimate the number of classi- fied Africana titles. Multiplying the results of the top eleven categories by 1.8 would give similar, but not necessarily more ac- curate, results. Figures for the non-DT cat- egories are more useful as a test of particu- lar Africana strengths or of the representativeness of the DT results. A major problen with this formula is that the DT section includes Egyptology and other titles about Northern Africa which are usually excluded from the de facto (but not formal) definition of African Studies. Thus, if one measures only the DT section, libraries supporting strong Near East programs will register as strong in African Studies even if they were rela- tively weak for Sub-Saharan Africa. The absence of a separate shelflist for Africana without Northern Africa complicates the resolution of this problem. Table 3 presents figures on the relative *KT, which accounted for 2.1 percent of MSU's Africana shelflist, was dropped from the final list because it did not appear in the IU list and law materials are often not reported in the main shelflist. If one was serious about including materials about" North Africa, the appropriate call numbers from PJ should be added. Other candidates for inclusion include BL2400-2490, GR350-360, HA1951-2227 (es- pecially if volumes rather than titles were counted), and HD2117-2151. +No attempt was made to estimate the number of relatively rare titles that really did not belong in an Africana shelflist. 382 College & Research Libraries September 1983 LC Call Nos . A B c D E-F G H J K L M N p Q R s T U-V z Call Nos. BV3500-3630 DT GN643-661 HC501-599 HN771- 840 JQ1870-3981 LA1500-2090 PL8000-8844 PQ3980-9 PR9340-9408 Z3501-3975 Total A Africana Call Nos . BV3500-3630 DT GN643-661 HC501-599 HN771-840 JQ1870-3981 LA 1500-2090 PLS000-8844 PQ3980-9 PR9340-9408 Z3501-3975 TABLE 1 DIS1RIBUTION OF TITLES Africana Titles IU African MSU Africana Studies Shelflist Shelflist 1980 (%) 1980(%) 0.4 0.3 3.7 4.5 0.4 0.4 38.3 39 .3 0.4 0.9 4.4 6.9 18.3 13.9 4.0 4.2 2.3 0.5 2.8 2.0 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.1 10.3 16.0 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.6 3.6 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.8 TABiE2 CORE CATEGORIES OF AFRICANA Percentage of Africana/ African Studies Shelflists MSU IU 1.6 1.4 36.5 37.7 1.1 1.6 4.6 3.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.9 3.8 5.9 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.8 . 55.4 58.4 TABLE 3 MSU 104 101 108 109 104 104 108 106 126 150 107 All Titles LCShelflist on Microfiche 1981 (%) 1 7 1 9 4 4 13 3 2 3 7 3 20 Main Shelflist as a Percent of Special Shelflist 7 3 2 7 1 3 IU 104 113 100 130 143 163 121 106 115 126 104 DISTRIBUTION OF TITLES ABOUT NORTHERN AFRICA B as a Percent of A MSU IU B African a Main African Studies Main North Africana Call Nos. Shelflist Shelflist Shelflist Shelflist BV3570-3605 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 DT43-107, 137-154 & 12.5 13.7 17.1 24.6 160-346 GN649 2.8 2.6 1.2 2.0 HC531-540, 547.A4 & .T8, 4.3 5.4 8.3 17.3 567.L5 & 591.M8 HN782-6 1.6 3.0 0 19.3 JQ3189, 3200-3339, 3.5 4.8 7.8 34.6 3590-9,3800-99,3940-9 LA1645-9, 1670-4, 1940-4 4.0 3.7 1.1 18.0 23651-9,3681-5,3836-40, 3.8 4.1 5.0 7.4 3933 & 3971 size of the subsections on Northern Africa.* Since the DT section contains a significantly greater proportion of titles on Northern Africa, the formula given above must be adjusted. An analysis of the num- bers in tables 2 and 3 reveals that for Africa without Northern Africa, th~ DT section of the main shelflist contains 59-61 per- Research Notes 383 cent of the total for the core eleven catego- riest or 32.4 percent of the total for all clas- sifications at MSU, and 34.0 percent at IU. This is close enough to 33.3 percent to make 3.0 an accurate multiplier of DT without Northern Africa to estimate titles on Sub-Saharan Africa. *The Sudan is considered part of Sub-Saharan Africa in this paper . Books about Africa as a whole are also included with Sub-Saharan Africa . tMeasuring the main shelflist at UCLA in 1983 revealed that DT was 66 percent of the total for the core eleven categories but 61 percent for the same categories after titles on Northern Africa were ex- cluded. Suitable for College Students and Graduate Researchers. WORLD ECONOMIC SURVEY 1983 Provides an appraisal of current trends in the world economy, their effects on devel- opment and the requirements for international cooperation. Chapter I presents the current outlook, analyses the adjustment to world recession taking place in devel- oping countries and discusses policies for a sustained world recovery. Chapter II traces main developments and issues affecting international trade and payments. 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