key: cord-0040379-z17n61m3
authors: Roaf, Sue; Crichton, David; Nicol, Fergus
title: How Hot Will it Get?
date: 2013-02-13
journal: Adapting Buildings and Cities for Climate Change
DOI: 10.1016/b978-1-85617-720-7.00003-6
sha: ea292938fd82a83750db1d392e1c90a493c89b72
doc_id: 40379
cord_uid: z17n61m3

nan

3 How Hot will it get?

We now have unequivocal evidence that the climate is changing, in the words of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the authoritative United Nations (UN) body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. AR4 sets out clearly mechanisms and causes of climate change and tells of a rapidly warming world. 1 IPCC 2007 projections for the rest of the century: Twenty of the hottest years ever measured occurring in the atmospheric record have come since 1980 and the 13 hottest have all occurred since 1990. The year on record was 2005, whilst all five of the hottest years ever recorded were in the past decade. The five hottest years in ascending order were: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 . The last 10 years, globally, has been the warmest decade in the last 100 years, and it is likely that the last century was the warmest in the last millennium. Sea level has risen by 250 mm (10 inches) since 1860. What we have measured before can be taken as certain but the science of predicting what will come in the future is by no means perfect. However, the science of AR4 tells of trends that cannot be ignored by the responsible and concerned citizens of the planet. Some claim that there are systemic errors in the reporting on the subject and the IPCC, as an inevitable consequence of requiring political and scientific consensus, does come down on the side of cautious conservatism rather than the opposite. Other first class scientists are more forthright.

How Hot will it get in temperate Britain?

Before we embark on the impacts of a warming world it is worth mentioning that while climate change will produce generally warmer temperatures, the UK will still be at risk of cold temperatures too. 

Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901-1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth's continents, as well as the entire globe, global land area and the global ocean (lower graphs). The black line indicates observed temperature change, while the coloured bands show the combined range covered by 90% of recent model simulations. Red indicates simulations that include natural and human factors, while blue indicates simulations that include only natural factors. Dashed black lines indicate decades and continental regions for which there are substantially fewer observations. Detailed descriptions of this figure and the methodology used in its production are given in the Supplementary Material, Appendix 9.C.

Two important studies have recently brought to public attention the possibility that we are already 'beyond the tipping point' and facing runaway climate change. Professor Bob Watson, chief scientific officer for the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), spoke to the press on 7 August 2008 after the publication of a two and a half year analysis by the UK Foresight programme, and said that he thought we should now plan to adapt to temperature rises of up to 4°C. Sir David King, the former chief scientific officer to the UK Government, concurred with these findings, pointing out that there is now a 20% risk that we may reach these temperatures and that if we do it may well push up over dangerous climate tipping points resulting in knock-on effects such as the release of the methane hydrate deposits in the Arctic.

At 4°C we are basically into a different climate regime. I think that is a dangerous mindset to be in. Thinking through the implications of 4 degrees of warming shows that the impacts are so significant that the only real adaptation strategy is to avoid that at all cost because of the pain and suffering that it is going to cost. There is no science on how we are going to adapt to 4 degrees warming. It is actually pretty alarming. 2 This comes after the seminal paper by James Hansen et al., entitled: 'Target atmospheric CO 2 : where should humanity aim?' In it he and his co-researchers conclude that if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, palaeoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes in non-CO 2 forcing like the methane released from the melting tundra. An initial 350 ppm CO 2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO 2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO 2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.

The IPCC, in their Second Report, and others had included several 'reasons for concern' to estimate that global warming of more than 2-3°C may be dangerous. The European Union (EU) adopted 2°C above pre-industrial global temperature as a goal to limit human-made warming and Hansen and his team had earlier argued for a limit of 1°C global warming (relative to 2000, 1.7°C relative to pre-industrial time), aiming to avoid practically irreversible ice sheet and species loss. This 1°C limit, with nominal climate sensitivity of ¾°C per W/m 2 and plausible control of other greenhouse gases, implies maximum CO 2 450 ppm. Hansen 

The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment reports showed that the issue will be changes in the mean and variance of temperatures, meaning that not only will it get hotter but it will be hot for more of the time, as shown in Figure 3 .4. Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment Report. 3 Commonly published and cited sources show that predicted temperature changes vary significantly according to which scenario is adopted and also on a region by region basis. The best data we have in the UK to date are those of the UK Climate Impacts Programme scenarios (UKCIP02), which predict that average annual temperatures across the UK may rise between 2 and 3.5°C by the 2080s, depending on the scenario. In general, there will be greater warming in the southeast than the northwest and there may be more warming in summer and autumn than in winter and spring, a prediction that seems to have been leant credence by the hot summer and warm autumn of 2003. 4 Under the High Emissions scenario, the southeast may be up to an astonishing 5°C warmer in the summer by the 2080s. During the last Ice Age, only 10 000 years ago, temperatures were only just over 3°C colder than today, so who knows what such predictions for future climates hold in store for our children and grandchildren in terms of actual climate extremes.

These are average figures and the mean maximum temperatures will be far higher. Figure 4 .3 shows four different localities, representing four different climatic regions in the UK. The graphs show that on any given day, the daily maximum temperature will exceed a certain value. For example, the Berkshire graph shows that, under the Medium High Emissions scenario, there is around a 5% probability that, in the 2080s, the area will experience a summer maximum temperature of above 35°C and a 1% probability that it will go over 40°C. These maximum temperatures are simulated by the model for areas of 50  50 km in size. They are again lower than temperatures that would be actually measured at a specific site. The frequency of extreme hot spells will also increase, as shown in Table 3 .1.

One clear pattern that has emerged is that the temperatures at night over many land areas are increasing at about twice the rate of daytime temperatures, and as one reads through this book many designers will be flagging design-related issues. So, for example, warmer nights mean that special care will have to be given to the environmental conditions in bedrooms. Another design problem relates to west-facing rooms with windows facing the low western sun when the ambient temperatures are at their highest in the afternoon so combining incoming sun with higher air temperatures. A further consideration, that will considerably worsen future climates, particularly in London, is that of the urban heat island effect, 5 which makes the centres of heavily built-up areas warmer than their hinterlands. Heat islands are very much influenced by: l The amount of building there is in a neighbourhood. This influences how much heat they can store in a day, week, month or season. It represents the thermal capacity of the area, rather like having more bricks in a storage radiator. 

The probability of a given daily maximum temperature in summer (dashed) and winter (solid) being exceeded on any given day. The absorptivity or reflectivity of buildings, which influences how much heat they take in and how much they reflect back to the sky or the building opposite.

l The streetscape and how easy it is to dissipate the heat from the city by wind. If all the streets are linked to roads that channel the constant sea breezes, as in Naples, then heat can be regularly flushed out of the city. If the main streets impede the natural flows of air, then heat will be trapped in the city.

l How densely the area is populated. More people, each producing around 50-100 W of heat, also means more machines and cars that give out heat.

The increases in temperature vary from region to region, but in cities such as Athens it can be between 8 and 13°C warmer inside than outside the city. For London, in the centre of the city it can be as much as 8°C warmer than the surrounding countryside. The heat island is highly changeable, most pronounced at night and weakening with increasing wind speed and distance from the city centre; the location of the thermal maximum of the heat island shifts with slight changes in wind direction. The number of nights with intense heat islands (greater than 4°C warmer than the surrounding countryside) has been climbing steadily since the 1950s.

The heat island effect may be influenced by the amount of cloud in the sky and simulations suggest large decreases in summer cloud cover over the whole of the UK, but especially in the south. Reductions in cloud cover under the Low Emissions scenarios are around 10% by 2080, but as large as 25% or more under the High Emissions scenarios, which will make solar energy technologies more viable but also may exacerbate the heat island effect.

Cloud cover increases slightly in winter, by no more that 2-3%, over the whole country. Autumn and spring become sunnier, particularly in the southeast. In summer, solar radiation increases by 10, 20 and even 30 W/m over southern England, consistent with rainfall predictions and the increase in the predicted diurnal range of the temperature. This was apparent in the summer of 2003 where the mean Central England Temperature (CET) was 17.3°C over the summer, making it the fourth warmest summer period on record. But the record for the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in the UK was broken on 10 August 2003 when 38.5°C (over 100°F) was recorded at Brogdale, near Faversham in Kent. The CET between March and August was also the warmest March to August ever on record, at 1.73°C above the long-term average.

Nights will warm more than days during the winter, and days warm more than nights during summer. It will stay warmer longer in summer, with up to 3-4°C night-time warming experienced, with a temperature that would now occur at 7.00 pm occurring at 11.00 pm under the High Emissions scenario.

The temperature of the heat island experienced in London will also be influenced by wind speeds, a factor that is influenced by pressure gradients across the country. The largest average wind speeds predicted, in the London's Warming Technical Report, occur along the coast, where between 4% and 10% increases in the average may be experienced in winter, but with smaller increases in summer. This is one of the more difficult factors to predict using current models.

wHat will tHe effeCt of tHis Be?

The wide range of impacts outlined below gives an indication of the variety and the extent of the influence of climate change on the lives of individuals in their own homes, around the world. Many of the issues raised link to points in other chapters and demonstrate the interconnectivity of the buildings we live in, the metabolism of the planet at large and the social, political and economic environments we inhabit.

Although Britain was not the most exposed country in Europe to the catastrophic August 2003 heatwave, time is money, and even in temperate London businesses will have to increasingly look to reduce their vulnerability to high temperatures in the workplace if such summers become commonplace. Offices that are vulnerable to high temperatures, such as highly glazed buildings, suffered very badly in the heatwaves of 2003 and 2005 and the Trades Union Congress (TUC), in response to wide-scale heat discomfort, called for legal maximum temperatures for workplaces.

Current legislation sets a minimum temperature below which no one should have to work, at 16°C or, where severe physical work is required, 13°C. The TUC suggested a maximum working 

The predicted maximum intensity of the London heat island over the year increases from the 1961-1990 record to 2050 and the 2080s when the temperature in central London will be over 8°C hotter than the surrounding countryside at times. Source: Wilby, R.L., The Environment Agency. temperature of 30°C, or 27°C for those doing strenuous work. In London in 2003, even in more traditional offices temperatures were exceeding these limits. It was also suggested that more breaks and a more relaxed dress code would help considerably. One employment lawyer suggested that employers should think twice before sacking staff who walk out of their workplace because of the heat, as they may find themselves accused of unfair dismissal. Workers can protect their work conditions by local negotiation covering the provision of air-cooling systems, shading for windows and an adequate supply of drinkable water. 6 Problems of poor internal climates are exacerbated by poor climatic design of buildings and their services. This was emphasized by all the staff of the refurbished HM Treasury building in London (July 2003), who were sent home after lunch because the building was simply too hot to occupy. It is unclear whether this was the fault of the designer of the refurbishment, the service engineers or the construction firm that did not properly commission the air conditioning system, but as temperatures increase designers will have to learn how to design and manage to avoid such overheating. 7 The need to put the building occupiers back into the equation of what makes an adequate building has made people more interested in the process of post-occupancy evaluation of building performance to ensure that lessons are properly learnt from such failures. 8 Since then there has been considerable work done on how to reduce overheating in the workplace and at home, and an excellent document one can view online is 'Beating the Heat' by Jake Hacker and a team funded by UKCIP. 9 This report shows the clear advantage of ventilation overheating in UK summertime temperatures.

A study by scientists at the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2003 found that 160 000 people die every year from side-effects of global warming, such as increased rates of death resulting from a range of causes from malaria to malnutrition, and predicted that the number would double by 2020. Diseases spread by animals such as rats and insects are more common in warmer climates and issues such as the increasing scarcity of clean water with hotter, drier climates will also play a major part in increasing deaths from illness and malnutrition. In addition, the combination of increasing warmth and more standing water resulting from storms creates conditions conducive to epidemics, such as those of malaria, by providing breeding grounds for the insects and speeding up the life cycle as a result of the warmer conditions. 10 Climate change will introduce three different types of health impact: l Direct impacts through death and injury from heatwaves, storms, floods and drought.

l Indirect impacts through the occurrence of health conditions exacerbated by changing weather conditions, e.g. respiratory diseases exacerbated by atmospheric pollution, or ensuing outbreaks of disease, such as typhoid and cholera, related to climate events such as floods.

l Migratory impacts resulting from the movement of sources of infection resulting from the diaspora of diseases via various carriers with warming climates, e.g. malaria and trypanosoma.

The direct health impacts of climate change we see all around us on a regular basis, including deaths resulting from fires, floods and drought.

Heat and cold stress are the main direct causes of death from extremes of temperature and they are dealt with in Chapter 9 on the human thermal response and Chapter 14 on energy and fuel security issues.

Climate warming also causes a shift in regions where diseases can survive. Italy, a country that was declared malaria free in 1970, now sees numerous cases every year. Tick-borne encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis carried by sandflies and potentially fatal, and other diseases are being reported as southern Italy in particular dries out. Concerns increase with climate change, increasing travel and the growth of densely populated cities about the rate of spread of a host of diseases, including tuberculosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Ebola, West Nile virus, malaria, plague, cholera, yellow fever, bird flu or influenza H5N1, Weil's disease, equine encephalitis, Escherichia coli 157, Lyme disease, Cryptosporidium, Lassa fever and Rift Valley fever.

We can also see indirect impacts around us in the news as the changing climate begins to affect our lives and deaths. The increasing strength of solar radiation is also affecting even 'rainy' Britain. In September 2003 the UK government issued a warning to local authorities to remove sunbeds from every leisure centre in the country amid accusations that they are profiting from treatments that endanger the health of the public. Members of the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health, many of whom work for local councils, raised the alarm because they believe that sunbeds are contributing to the rise in the incidence of skin cancer. Research published by the Journal of the National Cancer Institute in 2002 shows a strong link between tanning lamps and skin cancer. They called, in their 2003 annual conference, for the inclusion of 'shade provision' to become a requirement for all big planning developments. School playgrounds would be required to provide children and teachers with shaded areas. 11 Surprisingly, skin cancer is actually a major problem in the UK and exposure to ultraviolet rays and direct strong sunlight increases the risk of contracting skin cancer, by damaging the immune system and causing premature ageing of the skin. Skin cancer is now the second most common form of cancer in the UK. There are 40 000 cases a year and the number of new cases annually rose by more than 90% in the 15 years between 1974 and 1989. Three-quarters of these result from malignant melanoma. Most skin cancers are not life-threatening but must be promptly removed surgically to avoid serious problems.

There are no published statistics available on how many melanomas are linked to travel abroad or tanning lamps or are contracted owing to exposure to the sun in the UK. Here again the combination of factors may place a crucial part, for instance holidays in Spain, tanning at the health club, gardening in summer and overexposure to direct sun in the workplace. In highly glazed buildings care should be taken to ensure that staff are not sitting in direct sun during their working day.

Insect populations can explode in certain conditions, including particular temperature bands. The smallest of animals can cause severe impacts. When such infestations strike they spread very rapidly; when sudden oak death spread from Oregon and California to Britain, it spread to more than 280 sites within months in England. 12 The same is true of moulds and fungi, which can have a devastating effect on people and buildings, as can termites, spreading north from Devon even now with the warming weather, and mosquitoes that are now found in parts of Kent. Such infestations may well affect our health, timber sources and the structures of our buildings.

It is often the combination of conditions that really makes for serious epidemics, as many found often the combination of conditions that really makes for serious epidemics, as many found the combination of conditions that really makes for serious epidemics, as many found out on the troop ships in the First and Second World Wars when thousands of weak and injured soldiers were crowded together in hot ships, providing ideal breeding grounds for a range of potent killers ranging from typhoid and cholera to the other lethal stomach bugs.

In late October 2003, 430 people were stuck down with a chronic stomach complaint caused by the norovirus, or Norwalk-like virus (NLV), on the cruise ship Aurora, carrying 18 000 passengers and 800 crew. There was talk at that time of a £2.5 million claim against P&O, who operated the ocean liner, by some 250 of the infected passengers. Greece refused to let the liner dock in their waters to take on board provisions and medical assistance. NLV is the most common cause of stomach complaints in the UK, where 600 000 to 1 million people suffer from it every year, particularly in schools and hospitals and where people are confined in close quarters. Similar viruses have disrupted other cruises.

Similarly, incidences of SARS, caught first from chickens, were concentrated in areas of highdensity occupation, in hotels and high-rise housing estates in Hong Kong. SARS is caused by a coronavirus, a relative of the common cold, and was responsible for over 400 infections and 200 deaths in Southeast Asia and Canada in 2003. It spreads very rapidly and across large distances thanks to air travel, and is thought to spread primarily on droplets of water, through coughing and sneezing. Evidence from a large cluster of cases on a single housing estate in Hong Kong suggests that it can be spread in buildings, and in outdoor locations. Prevention measures for its transmission included the wearing of face masks and the thorough washing of hands. 13 With both the norovirus and the coronavirus the higher density of a population in one area will significantly increase the risks of infection of that population in that area.

The outbreak of SARS had a major impact on eastern markets in 2002. Economists cut the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for Hong Kong alone by 2.5% in the wake of the outbreak, 14 while some estimate that the total costs may rise into billions rather than millions of dollars as travellers simply did not want to visit the infected regions. Travel insurers placed an exclusion zone on policies covering Canada, Hong Kong and China, and warned people they would not be covered if they caught the infection. 15 Such outbreaks, on land or sea, demonstrate the potentially huge and growing risks to life and economic welfare arising from densely populated buildings and cities, in combination with rising temperatures.

Air pollution is already a growing health problem in many cities, including London, largely because of rising traffic levels, and will get worse in large urban areas under conditions of climate change. Recent studies show that relatively small rises in urban air pollution can trigger an increased number of potentially fatal heart attacks in people with vulnerable arteries.

During heatwaves air quality reduces, and on 7 August 2003 the UK government issued an official heath warning to asthmatics and the elderly, stating that air pollution in London had risen to the highest level for a decade as record temperatures were recorded in the capital. Air-quality monitors in Enfield recorded pollution levels of 131 parts per billion (ppb), almost three times the safe limit set by the WHO, as temperatures soared over 35°C.

Air quality in the UK in 2003 was the worst ever recorded, with the worst place in Britain for air pollution being a stretch of London's Marylebone Road, between Baker Street station and the Madame Tussaud's exhibition, which exceeded pollution guideline levels 48 times in the first three months of 2003 and 11 times in 2002. 16 Ozone levels also soared to 80-100 ppb in London at that time, while the highest levels ever recorded in Britain were 250 ppb in Harwell, Oxfordshire, in 1976 before strict EU laws restricting vehicle emissions were introduced. 17 However, there has been a gradual rise in the background levels of ozone in Europe since 1940. Government studies show that around 1600 people with breathlessness problems die prematurely every year due to high levels of air pollution and a further 1500, mostly asthma suffers, are admitted to hospital because their symptoms become worse during periods of poor air quality. 18 An increasingly significant factor in the past few years, particularly in Southeast Asia, has been the contribution to urban air pollution of smoke from large fires experienced in countries around the globe, exacerbated by heatwave conditions.

Predicted future increases in the number and intensity of hot anticyclonic weather events in summer will favour the creation of more temperature inversions trapping pollutants in the nearsurface layer of the atmosphere. It is estimated that a 1°C rise in summer air temperatures will result in a 14% increase in surface ozone concentrations in London. 19 But the warming cocktail of atmospheric pollutants is being -incredibly -added to by the decisions of politicians who seem hell bent on worsening the already severe pollution problems we face. In August 2003, it was announced that, in the drive to meet the ever-increasing demand in America for energy, around 50% of which goes to power buildings, the Bush Administration opened a huge loophole in America's air pollution laws allowing an estimated 17 000 outdated power stations and factories to increase their carbon emissions with immunity. Critics of the draft regulations unveiled by the US Environmental Protection Agency claimed they amounted to the death knell for the Clean Air Act, the centrepiece of US Environmental Regulations. The proposed new Regulations were challenged by 13 states, including New York, but if adopted would provide a multi-million dollar victory for US energy corporations. Many of the objectors are particularly concerned about the health impacts of this loophole on the cities and populations in the vicinity of such plants. 20 In Britain the Labour government has been very open about its desire to promote the interest of the aviation industry, with well-publicized plans for three major new airport developments over the next decade, at the expense of the well-being of ordinary citizens, particularly in southeast England. 21 Cheap air travel has a bread and circuses ring to it that appeals to politicians seeking re-election, but all political parties have possibly underestimated the intelligence of the local voters and their levels of knowledge on the issues involved. A major concern of people who live near runways, after noise, is the serious health consequences of poor air quality resulting from increased plane activity overhead.

Passenger flights emit more than 8 million tonnes of CO 2 every year in the UK, so playing a major part in climate change. This figure is predicted to rise to 19 million tonnes by 2030 if the airline industries are not checked, and ways to do this were the subject of a major review by the Department of Transport in 2003/04. 22 Fuels burnt in aviation have a wide range of toxic emissions that directly affect human health. Aviation emissions include nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbons, sulphur dioxide, naphthalene, benzene (a known carcinogen), formaldehyde (a suspected carcinogen) and dust particles that harm human health and contribute to global warming. This 'poison circle' can extend for 6 miles around a single runway and run 20 miles downwind. Studies have linked airport pollution to cancer, asthma, liver damage, lung disease, lymphoma, depression, myeloid leukaemia and tumours.

The size of this problem is emphasized by the fact that today 70% of US residents live within 20 miles of a major airport. In the UK the figures for people living within 30 miles of the four London airports must be fairly similar. Aircraft pollution has been implicated in higher rates of child mortality, premature deaths and cancer deaths in a number of reputable studies. 23 In the UK, air pollution, including that from aircraft and the surface traffic pollution associated with airports, is estimated to kill up to 24 000 people every year and requires medical treatment for thousands more. The health costs of air pollution from the UK aviation sector are estimated at more than £1.3 billion a year. 24 As with vehicular air pollution, the impacts of this pollution will be accelerated with the higher temperatures that are associated with global warming. The traditional view that aviation is a 'sacred cow' and should not be restricted by legislation because it may slow down global economies, is now being questioned, as is the need for more and more airports and air travel, which seems dependent also on oil prices remaining at their current costs.

What is sure is that increasingly warm summers will affect the air quality and in turn the quality of life of millions of citizens in Britain as the weather becomes hotter. Some engineers argue that issues of air quality from transport, industrial and acid rain pollution are a good reason to use air conditioning in buildings, but the most damaging of the fine particulates in air pollution are too small to be removed by air conditioning filters, so invalidating this solution (more of which in Chapter 11).

Those who are interested in locating sources of air pollution in relation to a particular site in England or Wales can enter a postcode on the 'What's in your backyard' feature on the Your Environment page of the Environment Agency website; it will also show where pollution is being emitted from industrial sites and landfill sites. 25

As water temperatures rise they often lead to an increase in toxicity. During periods of drought as water levels drop so do oxygen levels in water courses that can occasionally lead to largescale death of fish stock in rivers and streams. This is exacerbated by increasing toxicity as there is less water to dilute any existing pollutants.

An increasing problem is also the impact of warming water on the growth of algal blooms in both fresh and sea water. There are growing fears that human-made pollution is producing 'dead zones' caused by critically low oxygen levels in the oceans of the world. By 2007 over 400 coastal dead zones were recorded, up from 300 in 1995 and 162 in the late 1980s. Dead zones are caused when massive algal blooms, feeding off pollutants such as fertilizers, die and decay. Marine bacteria feed on the algae in the blooms after they have sunk to the bottom, and use up much of the oxygen dissolved in the water. The resulting 'hypoxic' seabeds can asphyxiate seabed organisms like clams and worms, and in turn disrupt fish stock. The problem can be exacerbated by periods of heavy rain that flush out more of the chemical pollutants in the soils, into the streams and rivers and down into the sea.

waste Increasing temperatures all year round will affect many aspects of our lives. For instance, building, office, household and industrial waste may increasingly become an issue with climate because of: l greater outdoor odour problems associated with waste disposal due to higher summer temperatures, and l waste containment problems associated with heavy rains and floods.

There may be a need for more frequent waste collection in certain areas owing to high summer temperatures, and more protection of, and care in selection of, landfill sites.

The city with the greatest waste collection in the world is Naples which, as a result of systemic corruption in the council and waste collection industry, regularly suffers from garbage strikes. In May 2007 the rubbish had built up to a depth of 3 m on some streets, in some places people had set fire to it and the stink and resulting pollution was all pervasive. The dumps in the region are apparently full but the problem is one that will in time lead to major health problems for the citizens, not least because of the increase in rat populations as the waste piles grow.

In the UK 200 000 homes are close to landfill sites and were thought to be worth, on average, £5500 less because of the nuisance caused by dust, noise, small vermin, and water and air pollution caused by the neighbouring rubbish dumps. In the first comprehensive study of the effect of landfill sites on house prices it was found that Scottish homes lost a staggering 41% of their value if they were within a quarter of a mile of a site, while in the East Midlands only a 10% reduction within a quarter of a mile and 8.75% reduction within half a mile were recorded.

With climate change, a wide range of physical and social adaptations in the population may well affect noise issues in cities. For example, with warmer outdoor temperatures, the growth of the 'café society' may increase activity at all times of year in the streets of cities, and sensible planning of open-air eating facilities in relation to residential areas is necessary as the warmer evenings may well pre-date the adaptation of populations to higher street noise levels. Thought should also be given to the greater need to open windows in warmer weather and the need to ensure that the noise and pollution impacts of street life and traffic noise do not encourage a move towards the climatically unnecessary air conditioning of buildings. The increased need for traffic-free zones in open restaurant areas of a city may become a feature of future inner city planning strategies, to ensure that local office buildings can be naturally ventilated without excessive noise levels. So noise and pollution should be increasingly included as key concerns for urban designers and local councils alike. Even fashionable buildings on sites with high noise and traffic pollution levels are problems, like the £13 million Hammersmith Ark building. It is nearly three decades old, very elegant, with low rents per square foot, but because of its noisy location on a traffic island, it has proved over those years a challenge to rent out. fires Fire hazards are significantly increased with hotter dry seasons, which add to the frequency, and the intensity, of bush and forest fires, creating a greater hazard to life, limb and property. Such fires occur generally in association with extreme dry periods and strong winds, as was the case with the Great Fire of London in 1666. 26 Every month from November 1665 to September 1666 was dry. By August 1666, the River Thames at Oxford was reduced to a 'trickle'. The dryness extended to Scotland, at least from May to mid-July. The drought over these two months is noteworthy because it preceded the Great Fire of London, and apparently the east wind, which prevailed during that period, had dried the wooden houses of London until they were like tinder. When the fire started on 12 September, the east wind drove the flames before it, causing great problems with fire-fighting and helping the fire to spread rapidly, causing smoke from the fire to reach as far as Oxford.

The prevailing weather was noted as 'hot and dry', and on the first day of the fire John Evelyn noted in his diary, a 'Fierce' eastern wind in a very dry season. It is not clear though whether the wind was caused by the fire, or was there anyway. However, Evelyn did note that there had been a 'long set of fair and warm weather'. On 14 September Evelyn noted: 'The eastern wind still more impetuously driving the flames forward'. On the 15th, he noted that the wind was 'abating', but this may have been due to the fire burning itself out. In any case, this was effectively the end of the Great Fire, and when the rains came on the 19th the fire was quenched and a rainy autumn followed, although Evelyn claimed that smoke could still be seen rising out of the odd basement six months after it ended.

The Perhaps the most devastating of recent fires occurred in Greece in 2007, where 670 000 acres (270 000 ha) of land were burnt in one summer. The USA has the highest incidence of annual fire outbreaks and the highest insurance payouts for fire damage in the world, with the worst recorded fires in California's history occurring in autumn 2008. However, even in the UK it is anticipated that we could suffer from impacts as devastating as those in Turkey, where 100 000 acres (40 500 ha) of Antalya were destroyed in 2008, and Greece in recent years because rural Britain is becoming increasingly dry over time and fire chiefs are expecting catastrophic fires in the not too distant future.

The issue of what materials buildings are made of is an important one. In countries such as the USA and Australia, where buildings are typically constructed of timber, or timber-based components, not only is more of the building destroyed during a fire, and the strong winds associated with it, but such buildings add fuel to the fire and intensify the event. Europe is extremely fortunate to have traditional building industries in which buildings have been largely constructed of heavy masonry and are less vulnerable to the catastrophic devastation experienced in many bush and forest fires, where whole suburbs can ignite in fireballs as the timber houses literally explode with the heat. In Britain, the medieval cities were to a far larger extent made of timber-framed construction, which was replaced in London largely by brick buildings after the Great Fire in 1666.

Plant and animal species are being lost around the world with rising temperatures at a rate that has alarmed many scientists. Every year the numbers rise inexorably and with the dire warnings about the melting of the Arctic ice sheet there has been growing concern about the loss of whole species such as polar bear and other Arctic animals. For a full list of species loss take a look at the Red List of the International Union of Conservationists (IUCN) . 27 There are estimated to be around 1.8 million species on Earth, but of those only around 41 000 have been assessed for their extinction potential.

Some of the most notable extinctions that are anticipated for the near future are those of the coral reefs, the Sumatran tiger, the Malaysian bear and the western gorilla. For some of these species there will no longer be anywhere suitable to live. Others will be unable to reach places where the climate is suitable to breed, feed or avoid thermal stress. 28 tHe restruCturing of eConomies in tHe warming world the impacts of biodiversity changes on regional economies

The loss of species has often catastrophic impacts on local economies. Fishing industries around the world will be highly impacted as river and ocean waters warm, changing centuries of tradition in their fishing practices. Every species has a temperature window within which it thrives and as temperatures change they will migrate to occupy their 'survival' temperatures. An extra 1°C in temperature pushed haddock, cod, plaice and lemon sole 200-400 miles north, according to the WWF (formerly the World Wildlife Fund). There have been more frequent sightings of species such as hammerhead sharks, triggerfish, sun fish and even red mullet, cuttlefish and black bream 3.8. in the waters of the Isle of Man. Fishermen in Cornwall may have to start breeding lobsters in captivity to prevent them from being eaten by triggerfish when very young. Scuba divers regularly find octopi along the south coast and Japanese oysters have also started breeding in British waters. These trends may affect the economic welfare of the fishermen of Britain and the communities they support.

Even more catastrophic is what is predicted will happen to the world's coral reefs. More than 100 million people around the world depend on reefs for their livelihoods. Corals are very temperature sensitive and are dying over large areas as ocean waters warm. In the El Niño year of 1998 unusually high temperatures in the Indian Ocean killed more than 90% of the corals on shallow Indian Ocean reefs and future high temperatures could finish the reefs off completely. Sixteen per cent of all coral reefs globally were calculated to have been destroyed but the worst affected were those in the Indian Ocean. The corals that died were up to 100 years old and would take centuries to recover if sea temperatures stabilized at the current levels. It is predicted that the higher temperatures may be reached every five years now and for the latitudes 10-15 degrees south, by 2020 all corals species may be extinct. 29 The economic costs of such extinctions are enormous. To combat such devastation legislation has just been introduced to make two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef, off the east coast of Australia, into a protected area under conservation plans announced by the Australian Government in December 2002, forming the largest network of protected marine areas in the world. Strong opposition was brought by the Queensland fishing industry, where it was estimated that 250 jobs would be lost. Fishing on the reef generates only around £46 million, while tourism in the region is worth £1.7 billion.

In May 2003, Hamdallah Zedan, Secretary to the Convention on Biological Diversity, ratified by 187 nations, said that at the Earth Summit at Johannesburg it had been recognized that our health and our lives depend on biodiversity and that:

The millions of species on earth have evolved complex interactions that allow for their mutual survival. Man has disrupted this at such a rate that nature can no longer adapt. Scientists agree that the incidences of plagues and pandemics will increase as we battle to find ways of controlling these human health challenges.

wolves at the gates of the city?

Animals are very ingenious, and even as one ecological niche closes, another may open up. The significance of a range of factors may influence how animals behave in a changing climate. Already we have the phenomenon of wild animals becoming adapted to live in cities, as was clearly outlined in David Baron's book The Beast in the Garden. 30 He cites cases of bears moving into New Jersey suburbs, raccoons in Los Angeles, and in the UK the urban fox is a common occurrence. The animals are drawn to feed off rubbish bins, a particular problem in the USA where, because of urban sprawl, the suburbs are moving into what was wilderness. Animal numbers have risen owing to restrictive laws in some states on the hunting and trapping of a range of larger animals, for instance lynx, bobcats, bears, beavers, foxes, wolves and cougars. There are black bears in the suburbs of Boston for the first time in 200 years and in New Jersey they have multiplied to over an estimated 3300. In December 2003 New Jersey authorized its first bear hunt in 33 years. Coyotes are multiplying too, and their cheek was demonstrated when one ran into the federal building in Seattle, through reception and into the lift! They routinely eat cats and dogs. In Florida the alligator population is growing at an unprecedented rate, helped by people buying up large plots and embracing the wilderness life and feeding the animals. David Baron maintains that the USA (and humans in general, the most pervasive species of all) is engaged in a grand and largely unintentional experiment. The 'range', on which Americans were once so happy to be 'at home', has moved from the plains to the car park at the mall and shows no sign of withdrawing back to the plains and the mountains. 31 the death of mountain communities?

As jobs go, so too do the communities they supported. Global warming is already affecting many mountain communities as winter sports are pushed higher and higher up. Fifteen years ago it was possible to guarantee good skiing over Christmas in the Alps, even in the lower resorts. Today this can only be done for sites over 1750 m, and even then this is not certain. Many ski resorts at lower altitudes face bankruptcy, and increasing environmental impacts are recorded as there is more and more pressure put on providing services at higher altitudes.

A research group from the University of Zurich looked at the situation in relation to predicted future climates and concluded that while today 85% of the 230 resorts in Switzerland are 'snow reliable' (if seven out of ten winters had at least 30-50 cm of snow on at least 100 days between 1 December and 15 August), by 2030 to 2050 this would drop to 63%. If the snowline rises from 1200 to 1800 m one in four resorts in many areas would face ruin, with losses of £925 million a year.

In Austria the snowline is expected to rise 200-300 m by 2030-2050, making many resorts in the central and eastern parts lose their winter industry; and in Italy only resorts above 1500 m can expect reliable falls of snow, that is around half of the winter sports villages. Many such villages are facing major problems already. Many German resorts are also at low altitudes. In Australia an increase of 0.60°C would hit four of the nine ski resorts and a rise in global temperatures of 3.4°C, predicted under some scenarios, by 2070 would mean that no Australian resort could operate at a profit. Even the summer climbing industry in the Alps is suffering. For the first time since records began in 1786, the summer 2003 heatwave made the Matterhorn too dangerous to climb. The mountain was closed in August 2003, with its naked slopes covered with heaps of rubble and scree. Two climbers died just trying to get to the restaurant at the start of the climbing routes. The permafrost that holds the mountain peaks together had melted to a depth of 7 feet (2.1 m), making ski lifts and cable cars unstable. The problems became apparent in July 2003, when an enormous rock avalanche hurtled down the mountain's east face, and within two hours another rocked the north face. More than 70 climbers had to be hauled from the mountain, one of the biggest mountaineering rescues in history. The mountain had actually begun to fall apart under their feet. Ice as it warms, but before it melts, may be more unstable than when it is turning to water. There is a growing realization that there is going to be a lot more of this type of devastation in mountainous regions as the foundations of the mountains, and their ski lifts and cable cars, become unstable. 32 agriculture In 2008 a global food crisis broke upon an unsuspecting world. Hunger riots broke out from Haiti to Indonesia. Crop belts are moving north, and many English farmers are already growing maize and sunflower as the cost of staple crops soared, exacerbated by the shift in production to biofuel crops, widespread drought and a warming climate. Higher temperatures have led to failures not only in crop production but also in fish production, animal productivity and in some parts far higher than normal deaths of birds in poultry farms that were ill-prepared for heatwaves.

In the short term there may be some agricultural benefits for temperate or colder climates as the world warms. One is the ability to produce more than one crop a year and expand the range of species grown. One example is the potential for the increased production of British wine. In the Campsie Hills, near Glasgow, the Cumbernauld vineyard is thriving and, banking on a good dose of global warming in the area, locals eagerly await the advent of Scottish wine made from Caledonia grapes. It was claimed in 2004 that if the Champagne region of France were to overheat and has to return to making more traditional Bordeaux types of wine, southern England could become the home of sparkling wine. The geography of wine is set to change dramatically with climate change and those who will suffer most will be the growers of southern France and Italy who may have to move their grapes to higher elevations or change their grape stock plants.

In Scotland grapes such as Muller-Thurgau and Bacchus may do well, while in the southern areas Pinot Noir and Chardonnay grapes may thrive best in the warming climate. Vine growers will have to be very adaptable to survive what climate change is throwing at them. 33 The problems for agriculture are also numerous. Warmer winters have also allowed aphids to survive in much larger numbers, forcing growers to spray crops earlier, and a new range of insects, wasps and spiders has invaded Britain from across the English Channel.

In 2007 the real scale of the impacts of climate change on crop production began to become clearer when a whole range of factors came together to almost double food prices across the world in a dramatic few months. Worldwide cereal stocks fell to 111 million tonnes, the lowest in 30 years, and wheat prices rose from £65 a tonne in 2006 to £117 a tonne in 2008. The International Grains Council predicted that the industrial use of grains would rise in 2008 by 23% to 229 million tonnes, of which around 107 million tonnes would be absorbed by ethanol producers for biofuels. The price of rice rose by 50% in two weeks in May 2008, triggering food riots in many countries around the world as people began not to be able to buy basic foodstuffs. Food shortages are severely affected by extreme weather events and the extensive flooding in south China, Indonesia and the Philippines in summer 2008 heralded conditions of growing food poverty. 34 Widespread droughts and flooding in Australia, Africa and America also contributed to growing food shortages. Population growth around the world is also a factor in rising food prices, as are the rising standards of living in many emerging countries.

A loaf of bread in the UK rose from 53 pence in 2002 to 129 pence by summer 2008. A tonne of rice on world markets rose from $145 in 2002 to over $700 by summer 2008.

Climate change has already created a global food crisis that is affecting everybody on the planet, and it is destined only to get worse. Prince Charles, in August 2008, made a controversial plea for humanity to turn away from the use of genetically modified crops because it put too much power in the hands of a few international corporations. What is increasingly apparent is that everyone from the lower and middle classes, in fact all but richest minority of the world's population, will have to turn their hands to growing or accessing as much of their own food locally as possible because of the growing cost of centrally provided food in the shops. Climate change is making food security as challenging an issue as that of energy security. For both these key challenges local storage solutions offer the individual more hope of survival in all but the most extreme of catastrophes. A local saying in the city of Mosul in northern Iraq is 'One day honey, one day onions', meaning one day plenty, one day basic rations. Every family should plan, perhaps, to locate their own stash of onions in a rapidly changing world.

In 2008 the Royal Horticultural Society built their garden at the Chelsea Flower Show around the theme of climate change. Plants such as tender perennials did not feature and there were very few cacti to be seen. There were two future scenarios including a 'low emissions' and a 'high emissions' garden. The former had plants that can be grown in sheltered positions in today's gardens but the latter was populated with species that one would find in Mediterranean gardens today such as bougainvillea, succulents and a wide range of drought-resistant species.

Plants, like humans and other animals, are being influenced by the changing climate. In even the hottest and driest places on Earth the garden has always been an important climatic design feature, to enhance the enjoyment of life, through the richness of colour and texture, perfumes and appearance, but also a very effective way of providing cooling. The earliest dynasties of Mesopotamia were renowned for their gardens. The Garden of Eden was placed by historians at the confluence of the Tigris and the Euphrates and the poetry of the Sumerians, living over 5000 years ago in that region, lyrically details the beauty of the trees, plants and flowers enjoyed at the time. Most have also heard of the Hanging Gardens of Babylon and many will have read the rich poetry of the Persians, singing tributes to the beauty of the gardens and their contents with ponds and streams set, in an ordered fashion, in the great walled domains and parks. 35 On such a great tradition of gardening were built the Roman gardens, as one can see today in Pompeii, where many have been reconstructed from the archaeological evidence garnered from the uncovered city. Vines and fruit trees, woods and flowers and herbs flourish, still reflecting the wall paintings around the houses. 36 The secret of the success of gardening in some of the hottest places on Earth was to create a micro-climate fed by very selective watering systems and strategies and protected from the barren deserts beyond by high walls that kept out the hot winds and sun and contained the moister micro-climate within. Cold and moist air sinks, and many such gardens contain sunken sections, often covered by a canopy of trees to reduce evaporative transpiration rates and contain the coolth. Perhaps the greatest achievement of any urban gardeners is in the Chinese Desert Oasis city of Turfan, where the main crop of the town, grapes, is also used as an air conditioning system for the whole city: all the pavements and courtyards of houses in the old city are planted with vines that keep out the sun and provide a luxurious micro-climate beneath the vines. Other strategies for gardening in deserts include the planting of only drought-tolerant species and minimizing water loss rates by very careful diurnal and seasonal strategies for planting, watering and harvesting species. 37 Just as we will rely increasingly on imported wisdom on appropriate building technologies as the climate warms, as traditional approaches to gardening cease to be viable in future climates, with drier and hotter summers and frost-free winters, many of the lower latitude approaches to garden design and upkeep will have to be incorporated into our strategies for maintaining gardens. Many of the species in British gardens today may have to be replaced in the future by more drought-tolerant plants, and for inspiration a good place to look for species appropriate to future climates in the UK is to the gardens of southern Europe today. 38 tHe proBlems of freeze Increasingly, extreme weather events are associated not only with higher temperatures but also with the problems of freeze. Extreme cold events cause real challenges for many homes. The 'big freeze' of December 1995 and January 1996 caused widespread damage from burst pipes and water mains. The evidence submitted by the Scottish and Northern Ireland Plumbing Employer's Federation to the subsequent Scottish Affairs Committee Inquiry 39 highlighted the concern that many householders did not know how to or could not shut off the cold water supply. Many flats and tenements had no isolation valve for individual properties. The scale of burst 3.10.

In the summer of 2003 the American Mid-West suffered from an all-time record number of tornadoes, indicating a trend in the increasing frequency of storm events in the region. The frequency and intensity of storms increase as land masses heat up. Source: Extreme Climate Calendar.

water pipe damage was reflected by the estimate from the Association of British Insurers (ABI) that the claims in Scotland would amount to some £350 million. Following this, the ABI produced a set of television commercials and a free schools pack on precautions to be taken to prevent burst pipes, in the hope that the school children would educate their parents. This was the most successful schools pack the ABI had produced, and almost every school in Scotland asked for supplies.

The ironic fact about all this is that other countries such as the USA have no great problems with burst pipes despite more severe winters, simply because of the design of their plumbing systems. Properties in the UK could be made similarly resilient by a simple modification 40 to the pipe work using materials costing less than £5, plus around 15 minutes' labour. If the North Atlantic circulation changes as a result of climate change, freeze could become a growing problem in the UK.

One chronic problem the USA does suffer from is the vulnerability of its power supply lines. Every winter there are communities around America where winters storms bring down power lines, leaving buildings without electricity for weeks, as in MacAlister, Oklahoma, in spring 2007 where the whole town was without electricity for three weeks. Planning to survive comfortably through a big freeze is essential too.

Every aspect of the way we live will be affected by climate change: the regions and settlements we live in, the air we breathe, the food we eat, our jobs, our holidays and the buildings we live in. We face a wide range of design challenges to accommodate such rapid changes. But one concern must cross our own minds as we see the rate and extent of the warming and note the extent of the changes that may well be wrought on the landscapes and on other species, and that is: Will we ourselves stay comfortable, safe and ultimately survive in the changing climate?

This question is addressed in Chapters 8 and 9.

notes and referenCes

IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Target atmospheric CO 2 : where should humanity aim? Science

There is an increasing amount of work being done on the heat island effect

see also London's Warming: The Impacts of Climate Change on London

For more information on the building design see

Closing the Loop: Benchmarks for Sustainable Buildings

Beating the Heat

for a pdf version of: Department of Health, Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: An Expert Review for Comment

The WHO sees the establishment of a sun protection programme as a high priority as the young are most vulnerable to skin damage from the sun

uk/London/main_London.htm.; and particularly badly affected are cities in basin locations such as Sheffield and, surprisingly

Adapting Buildings and Cities for Climate Change 20 Guardian

The UK Government in its 2003/04 White Paper on air transport made a range of recommendations to increase the capacity of UK airports including that two new runways should be built, the first at Stansted airport by 2012 with a second extra runway at Heathrow airport by 2020, providing 'stringent environmental limits' can be met. The paper rules out additional runways at Stansted, Gatwick and Luton and an airport at Cliffe. It does not rule out new runways and/or terminal capacity at Bristol

The White Paper contains no evidence that the 'external' health impacts of such decisions have been taken into account during the decisions, as many had hoped for; see

23 It should be noted that a range of simple strategies could be employed to reduce the unsustainably high levels of air pollution resulting from aviation

Flying 6000 feet lower than their present cruising altitude, airlines could cut the damage caused by vapour trails by 47% -although they would burn 6% more fuel. Air traffic control stratagems could cut emissions by a further 10% if planes no longer had to fly 'zig-zag' patterns and were able to avoid queuing for take-off and landing slots

26 There are a number of excellent books on the Great Fire

The Great Fire of London: An Illustrated Account

The Great Fire of London. Gloucestershire: Sutton Publishing; and for full accounts of the contemporary diary entries of Samuel Pepys and John Evelyn see

See also R. Stone, A world without corals

The Beast in the Garden: A Modern Parable of Man and Nature

and for the melting Matterhorn story see

The winelands of Britain: past, present and prospective

and an excellent site on the impacts of desertification see

Persian Gardens and Garden Pavilions

Ancient Roman Gardens

Landscape Design for the Middle East

Gardening in the Global Greenhouse: The Impacts of Climate Change on Gardens in the UK

Scottish Affairs Committee Inquiry, Big Freeze: Lessons to be Learned, HMSO

An investigation into freezing and bursting water pipes in residential construction. School of Architecture-Building Research Council at University of Illinois. Prepared for the Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction