key: cord-0051698-f64dw33b authors: Keeling, David J. title: Transport geography in Iceland date: 2020-10-16 journal: J Transp Geogr DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102875 sha: bd5a225e719c7f5229967ae939d9118c328b7663 doc_id: 51698 cord_uid: f64dw33b nan Iceland has long enjoyed a strategic location in the transportation networks of the North Atlantic, dating back to the Viking voyages that first carried northern Europeans to the Western Hemisphere. In recent years, its role in the changing dynamics of Arctic accessibility and resulting geopolitical shifts, shaped in part by climate change, has raised important questions about transport implications for shipping, aviation, and tourism. In addition, the growth of low-cost airlines in the North Atlantic marketplace that offer competitive Iceland stopovers between mainland Europe and North America, driving visitor numbers ever higher on the island, has generated critical questions about domestic accessibility and mobility challenges. Iceland hosted approximately two million visitors in 2019, about six times the current population of approximately 342,000, raising serious concerns about impacts on transport infrastructure, the environment, and tourist resources, and on the natural and cultural landscapes that define Iceland's distinctive milieu. This report examines the current state of research on Iceland's transport geography and suggests areas of concern that could benefit from further research. Three broad research themes are identified: (1) the role of transport infrastructure for economic and tourism development in Iceland; (2) local accessibility and mobility strategies in Iceland, including transport planning, infrastructure, and sustainability; and (3) Iceland's transport role and strategies in the wider Arctic Basin. Trans-Atlantic travelers became acutely aware of Iceland's impact on air travel in 2010, when the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano caused the most significant shutdown of air traffic since World War II (Jönsson, 2014; Bolic and Sivcev, 2011) . The subsequent disruptions to air travel encouraged a number of studies on stranded passengers, financial losses to the airline industry, and management of the relationship between physical events and transportation networks (Birtchnell and Büscher, 2011; Budd et al., 2011) . One of the more interesting findings from research on the eruption disruption was its impact on a heightened awareness of, and sensitivity to, the natural environment and what type of planning is needed to anticipate future disruptions from similar events . Researchers at the University of Iceland, for example, used a scenario approach coupled with stakeholder workshops to find weaknesses in planning strategies (Reichardt et al., 2018 (Reichardt et al., , 2019a (Reichardt et al., , 2019b . Other research has argued that a weakness exists in coordination between the science and aviation sectors, and that little analysis has been conducted on the effects of volcanic ash on jet engines, limiting potential decision-making protocols that affect transportation strategies (Reichardt et al., 2017; Ulfarsson and Unger, 2011) . More coordinated research between transportation scientists and the aviation industry is warranted to mitigate potential future disruptions to air travel. Since the turn of the millennium, growth in global tourism and associated changes in low-cost airline networks across the Atlantic have driven research on budget airlines, their impact on trans-Atlantic passenger flows, and their implications for Icelandic tourism (Lund et al., 2017; Dobruszkes, 2006 Dobruszkes, , 2013 Citronet, 2001) . The ability to use narrow-body aircraft between European cities, Iceland, and North American destinations has provided an environment where low-cost carriers can profit from, and contribute to, significant growth in trans-Atlantic traffic (Hunt and Truong, 2019) . With the recent growth of Iceland stopover traffic, opportunities abound for GIS-based analyses of origin-destination data, a broader understanding of the spatial impact of low-cost airlines on legacy carrier networks, and a deeper understanding of push-pull factors in air travel that could shape the Icelandic tourism industry. A more nuanced analysis of the impact of stopover policies on Iceland's tourism strategies could contribute to the debate about "excess" or over-tourism, and whether short stopovers provide any lasting benefit to the tourism industry (Jóhannesson and Lund, 2019; Seraphin, 2019) . Future research on aviation will be shaped in no small measure by the serious challenges presented by the global COVID19 pandemic, with significant long-term impacts for Iceland as a stopover destination and as a key player in the North Atlantic low-cost carrier aviation market (Suau-Sanchez et al., 2020) . For example, a recent analysis of the link between global aviation, the spread of COVID19, and impacts on island countries employed an econometric testing method to determine that tourism specialization left countries like Iceland vulnerable to rapid disease spread during a pandemic (Hoarau, 2020) . Cruise tourism has emerged as another important element in Iceland's transport matrix, raising critical questions about the environmental impacts of large ships on sensitive natural environments (Fridriksson et al., 2020) . Since the early 2000s, the number of cruise ships entering Icelandic waters has risen from just a handful each season, to 83 in 2008, and to 876 individual berthings recorded at 16 ports from multiple ships in 2019, most anchoring in Reykjavik at some point during the visit (CruiseIceland, 2020; ITB (Iceland Tourist Board), 2020; Huijbens, 2015) . Research has explored the potential to expand cruise tourism into other areas of Iceland, such as the Westfjords, identifying concerns from local stakeholders about sustainability, inadequate port infrastructure, the movement of visitors, and economic dependence on a global cruise industry (Eskafi et al., 2020; James et al., 2020; O'Brien, 2014) . A modest but stable rural air network consisting of four scheduled airlines connects the interior cities to Reykjavik's city airport, but little up-to-date research exists on competition with terrestrial modes, pricing, or frequencies (Rohde, 2013) . The government aims to shut down the city airport and transfer all flight operations to Keflavik International Airport, which is about 50 kms from downtown, but this could weaken demand for existing domestic air service with negative consequences for internal accessibility and mobility (Gestsdóttir, 2016) . More research is needed, perhaps utilizing simulation models, to determine the effectiveness of Iceland's domestic air network. Infrastructure Journal of Transport Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jtrangeo https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102875 Received 15 June 2020; Received in revised form 5 October 2020; Accepted 6 October 2020 weaknesses in general, beyond the urban core, have been identified by several studies, especially in the northern and eastern regions of Iceland related to work commuting and access to tourist sites (Bjarnason, 2014; Reynisson et al., 2012; Gunnarsson, 2004) . Analysis of the potential impact of a reduced domestic air network on these regions would be helpful in shaping rural policy and planning strategies for the future. Recent phenomenal and unprecedented growth in tourism to Iceland has encouraged a concomitant growth in research on tourism's impact on infrastructure, facilities, and the physical environment, with concerns expressed about the impact of overtourism (ûórhallsdóttir and Ó lafsson, 2017). A unifying thread through most of this research are questions about the maximum number of visitors that both the physical environment and Icelandic society writ large can handle (Kristjánsdóttir, 2016) . Many university study-abroad programs and student researchers have attempted to quantify or qualify this impact, with only modest results (Hale, 2019) . For example, if the glaciers have all melted would the tourists still arrive in the millions? My own department has worked with Iceland's University of Akureyri for several years on projects to understand aspects of accessibility and mobility related to tourism, especially using technology such as eye-tracking to determine visitor movement and behavior in vulnerable locations (Graham, 2018) . Tverijonaite et al. (2018) found that improved accessibility to remote and protected areas in Iceland has led to a higher level of perceived overcrowding, with the concomitant demand for increased infrastructure that lessens the attractiveness of the protected area. Demands by tourists for different experiences shift over time, driven in part by what is chic or "in" at the moment. For example, Schmudde (2015) has explored the growth of equestrian tourism, while others have explored how visitors view the vulnerability of the physical environment (Karlsdóttir, 2013) , and why improved accessibility to remote areas has threatened the wilderness qualities of nature-based tourism (Ólafsdóttir and Runnström, 2011). The broader question of tourism's social sustainability remains to be answered clearly, although recent research makes it clear that residents' daily accessibility and mobility routines in public spaces are disrupted by tourists and tourism-related infrastructure (Helgadóttir et al., 2019) . These concerns are important in the context of rural accessibility and mobility, where infrastructure and opportunities are far more limited and often lower quality than in urban areas. Bjarnason and Edvardsson (2017) explored the rural-urban nexus of university mobility and concluded that most rural students tend to remain in urban areas, or migrate overseas, after graduation. Research on the spatial mobility of immigrants to Iceland suggests a greater tolerance of migrants by urban compared to rural residents, especially individuals with greater mobility experiences (Bjarnason et al., 2020) . Spatial mobility challenges such as rural healthcare access (Gustafsdottir et al., 2017) , the importance of helicopters for health-emergency evacuations (Sveinsdottir et al., 1994) . and timely ambulance service in the event of a health emergency (Gunnarsson et al., 2015; Valdimarsson, 1997) remain partially unresolved and could benefit from further research. Especially important is additional research on the challenges faced by wheelchair users or those with other mobility impairments who travel between rural communities by public transit, or tourists with physical handicaps that wish to visit sites in rural areas (Jónasdóttir et al., 2018; Ingólfsdóttir, 2015) . Despite these challenges, Karlsson (2015) has argued that incremental transport service and infrastructure improvements in recent years has increased migration from the rural to the urban, and future research is needed to assess the social and economic implications of this process. In addition to general tourism research, more traditional studies have evaluated the impacts of increased demand for accessibility and mobility on the daily life of Icelanders across the country. Examining Icelanders' general travel behavior, Czepkiewicz et al. (2020) applied a mixed-methods strategy to determine that those living close to the city center tended to travel internationally more regularly, whilst those with access to a summer home tended to travel more within Iceland. In terms of the changing geography of settlement patterns, Karlsson (2007) questioned how transportation improvements have affected property prices in Iceland, determining that improvements closer to the capital had a statistically greater marginal impact on the real price of property compared to more rural locations, despite better roads and improved public transit. However, a proliferation of second homes outside the urban area, in part to provide short-term rentals for visitors, is another consequence of improved transport infrastructure and accessibility (Nouza et al., 2013) . Research on mobility suggests that rural transport infrastructure still needs improvement to provide more equitable service across Iceland. The challenging nature of Iceland's physical environment vis-à-vis road transport has highlighted the problem of speeding, especially by visitors unaccustomed to Iceland's narrow and, often, wet or icy roads (Árnason et al., 2007; Á rnason, 1996) . Moreover, there has been a corresponding spike in road accidents correlated with tourism growth since 2010 (Arnadottir et al., 2018) . Further research on the link between tourism growth and traffic fatalities could highlight specific areas that are accident hotspots. Even in urban areas, traffic safety remains a challenge as bicyclist injuries have increased with more tourism (Jonsson et al., 2016) . Unger et al. (2018) obtained access to hospital data related to injuries to bicyclists and determined that police records mostly address only bicycle-automobile crashes, which has important implications for bicycle-related infrastructure planning in terms of how bicyclists are separated from other traffic. Another safety concern has been the rise of car use by young drivers in Iceland within the broader theoretical framework of automobility and what this means for environmental sensitivities and planning strategies (Collin-Lange, 2013; Collin-Lange and . Can you be an environmental activist and still drive a car or fly on an airplane? Questions about sustainability linked to the carbon footprint of international tourism have been raised by a number of researchers, with general agreement that Iceland's greenhouse gas contribution has tripled since 2010, despite an almost-emissions-free energy industry (Czepkiewicz et al., 2019; Clarke et al., 2017; Sharp et al., 2016) . Global tourism contributes about 8% of the world's carbon footprint (Lenzen et al., 2018) , and researchers in Iceland are well aware of the impact that the country's tourism industry has on this metric (Sharp et al., 2016) . Notwithstanding the collective carbon footprint of international travelers, Iceland has become a leader in domestic sustainable mobility in recent years, with significant research on electric vehicles encouraged by cheap hydroelectricity and short distances between settlements (de Rubens et al., 2020; Lin and Sovacool, 2020; Ottesen and Banna, 2020; Driscoll et al., 2012; . Iceland has encouraged fiscal incentives for electric vehicle development (Shafiei et al., 2018) , while challenges related to decarbonization strategies (Sovacool et al., 2018) , low-carbon alternative fuels (Shafiei et al., 2014a (Shafiei et al., , 2014b , and the expanded use of hydrogen in transport (Farrell et al., 2003) continue to shape the progress of sustainable mobility. Overall, research in this area suggests that market penetration of electric vehicles in Iceland remains hampered by financial concerns, the lack of battery charging infrastructure, and the short lifespan of batteries. Most visitors to Iceland spend much of their time either in the capital, Reykjavik, or in nearby exurban environments. Urban tourism has emerged as an important research theme, with questions about transit services to key locations or sites, and about the carrying capacity of these places (Huijbens and Jóhannesson, 2020) . More research is needed on the link between improved transportation and overtourism. Reynarsson (1999) provided a useful historical overview of planning in urban Iceland but this theme needs to be further explored and updated given the growth in visitor numbers and in urban populations. More work is also needed on the usefulness of public transit services and routes in urban areas, last reported by Wynne (1997) , and on the development of bicycle routes to support a more ecofriendly transport experience (Pánek and Benediktsson, 2017) . Changes in the importance of transit as a result of the 2008-2009 financial crisis highlighted the increased risk of transport-related social exclusion (Ulfarsson et al., 2015) , an issue that surely will need investigation after the COVID19 pandemic has abated. Santanicchia (2016) argued that new architecture, more jobs in tourism-related businesses, and an improved urban aesthetic led to the depopulation of rural areas, reinforcing prior work on changing settlement patterns as accessibility and mobility networks began to change as tourism grew rapidly (Valsson et al., 2013) . More research is needed on the nexus between mobility, modal split, and visitor numbers in Iceland, and on understanding more clearly the various perceptions of, and need for, transport services by different types of visitors (cruise day trippers, nature-based tourists, and culture seekers, for example). The final research theme tackles Iceland's transport role and strategies in the wider Arctic Basin. The country's geography suggests that it holds an important transport position between the north Atlantic and the Arctic Basin, and between northern Europe, Greenland, and North America. In recent years there has been much debate about the possibility of opening the Arctic to new northern sea routes (Baldursson, 2020) , raising concerns in Iceland about safety and security issues in the territorial waters surrounding the country (Hill et al., 2015) . Iceland has taken a prominent role in the Arctic Council, founded in 1996 to address issues such as the marine environment, the people and communities of the Arctic region, the impacts of climate change, and the economic possibilities of new shipping routes (Lee and Song, 2014) or transit corridors across the Arctic (Østreng et al., 2013) . Some research suggests that Iceland's location does not necessarily enhance possible benefits from new Arctic shipping strategies (Lasserre and Pelletier, 2011) as it is not situated along the shortest route between Asian and European markets. In contrast, Valsson and Ulfarsson (2009) highlighted Iceland's position and potential changes in its geopolitical meaning if, for example, two new global transportation circles were formed through the Arctic Ocean with Iceland in the middle. Elíasson et al. (2017) employed GIS data to evaluate the potential risks and benefits linked to resource use and exploitation in the Arctic waters shared by Iceland. Although many Icelanders are enthusiastic about the economic potential of increased Arctic ship traffic and resource exploitation, little research to date has provided concrete data that argue in support of the benefits that could accrue specifically to Iceland, in part because it is difficult to quantify potential future events (Larsen and Huskey, 2015) . There are wider geopolitical implications of increased traffic in the Arctic basin, such as how the rise of Asia, and particularly China, might impact Iceland's role and influence in the Arctic (Hastings, 2014) . Iceland is a lightly populated country (about 342,000) facing significant challenges in the global economy, highly dependent on tourism and with a rapidly changing natural environment (Cela, 2013) . What role will potential oil and gas exploration play in the country's future development strategies, especially considering its stance on environmentally sustainable practices (Elíasson et al., 2017; Holthus et al., 2013) . New research is needed on resource exploitation in Iceland and how oftencontradictory energy and environmental policies can be reconciled. Finally, in the broader context of globalization and integrated transport networks, Nilsson (2013) examined return migration to rural Arctic areas in Iceland and elsewhere and argued that governments need to focus research on how to encourage centrifugal forces that might reduce urbanization and encourage more rural development. Returning to the three themes proposed initially -the role of transport infrastructure for economic and tourism development in Iceland; local accessibility and mobility strategies in Iceland, including transport planning, infrastructure, and sustainability; and Iceland's transport role and strategies in the wider Arctic Basinsome broad suggestions for future research on Iceland's transport geography are offered. Investments in transport infrastructure and service provision will be critical to ensure that Iceland is better prepared to handle the accessibility and mobility challenges in a post-COVID19 world as an island country heavily dependent on tourism. Research that explores different transport modes and infrastructures, their socio-economic consequences, and their implications for social justice could help Iceland rebound from the pandemic's impacts and better prepare the country for a more sustainable transport future. With forthcoming predicted efficiency improvements in aviation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from tourism and aviation would require strong reductions in travel demand. From a sustainable mobility research perspective, would the number of tourists coming to Iceland need to drop, and would the frequency by which residents of Iceland travel internationally need to go down, to achieve a more sustainable transport environment? If so, is Icelandic society and its economy ready to take this path? What would need to happen for this to be possible? After recovering from COVID-19, should Icelandic tourism and aviation rebound to prior levels, or should Iceland search for a different development path, one that is not totally reliant on inbound tourism? How can Iceland prepare for a measurable and meaningful reduction of its carbon footprint? These are all question worth asking about Iceland's transportation environment, and worth investigating using geographical approaches. Given the gravity of global climate change particularly for Iceland and the Arctic Basin, they require a stronger emphasis by transportation geographers. Transportation geographers can offer relevant research to expand and deepen our understanding of Iceland's accessibility and mobility relationships, including mapping internal flows and modeling tourism demand for specific routes and destinations using GIS technology. Planners, policy makers, and infrastructure providers need effective spatial analysis to help guide more rational, spatially appropriate, and economically viable transport decisions in and for Iceland. In terms of the geopolitics of Iceland's position in a rapidly changing Arctic environment, shaped by climate change and competition between countries for control of Arctic waters and resources, research on the state's behavior and on its power relationships within the Arctic community is needed to understand more clearly the options for Iceland going forward. Transport geographers can bring spatial analytical techniques to bear on framing and contextualizing Iceland's potential in a rapidly evolving Arctic environment. None. 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