key: cord-0636173-b0johuud
authors: Jaiswal, Rajasri Sen; Dobal, Richa; Laksmhi, K. Thirumala; Siva, M.
title: In search of the origin of Corona virus
date: 2020-08-25
journal: nan
DOI: nan
sha: adaa1d201038274ae5bc4b24e18bb74d9830fd0a
doc_id: 636173
cord_uid: b0johuud

In this paper, the authors aim to find out the origin of the corona and the duration of the present pandemic caused by it. Besides, they aim to find out the reason for such outbreaks occurring often in China. They make a hypothesis that the origin of the virus is embedded in the solar cycle. Next, they have proved the hypothesis by investigating the sunspot number, the cosmic ray flux data, the concentration of 10 Be in the ice core in Greenland and based on the occurrence of past pandemics and endemics. The study shows that whenever the Sun is in the magnetically quiescent state, the world witnesses viral diseases. The study shows that the outbreak of the Corona is because of the minimum sunspot number during 2019-2020 and the Corona is likely to stay in the whole of 2020. The study indicates the occurrence of viral diseases in every 11-13 years. It also reveals that as the stratospheric thickness is the minimum at Wuhan, the virus had chosen this place as the first entry point to the Earth.

The world is kneeling under the grip of the pandemic caused by the Corona, a virus that had first erupted in China. All over the globe, many people have been infected by the deadly virus. The governments of all countries are trying to find out the cause of the occurrence of Corona and have initiated several safety measures. However, the number of infected people and the death toll continue to rise. In this paper, the authors have attempted to find out the cause of the outbreak. The very fact that the Sun is in the magnetically quiescent state in 2019-2020 and the Corona outbreak is creating havoc since 2019, it had appeared to the corresponding author that the secret of the outbreak of the virus is embedded in the solar cycle. Thus, it is purely the author's hypothesis. To find out the cause of the Corona outbreak, in this paper, the authors have investigated the solar cycle from 1700-2019. Besides, they have investigated the cosmic ray flux data over Oulu, Finland, and Ahmedabad, India. Further, they have analyzed the concentration of 10 Be collected in the ice core in Greenland. The authors have attempted, in particular, to find out when the Corona is likely to disappear, and when the next outbreak of viral disease will happen. Besides, they further aim to find out why the Corona has shown its first appearance in China.

The Sun is the major driving force of the atmospheric processes. Sir William Herschel suggested a possible influence of the solar cycle on the Earth's atmosphere 1 . Several studies [2] [3] [4] have revealed the influence of the solar cycle on Earth. Studies show that the humidity 5 and temperature are strongly correlated to the sunspot number. Loon and Meehl 6 noticed that during the solar maxima, the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean shows a pattern conducive to La Nina. The total solar irradiance (TSI), i.e. the incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, and the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface cause weather and climate on the Earth. The amount of radiation reaching a particular place on Earth is also governed by the Earth's orbital motion and its spin 7 . Thus, any changes in the atmospheric processes on the Earth depend on the modulations in solar radiation and the orbital and spinning motion of the Earth. Besides, the cosmic rays of galactic and solar origin also affect the atmospheric processes 8 . A Study 5 shows that the humidity at a place depends on the cosmic rays.

The cosmic ray flux at a place shows strong correlations with the temperature over Oulu, Finland.

The total solar irradiance (TSI) depends on the magnetic activity of the Sun. It is found out that when the Sun is in the active state, then the TSI is higher 3 than when it is magnetically quiescent 9 . The sunspot number (SSN) is a manifestation of the level of activity of the Sun.

When the Sun is magnetically active, then the SSN is high 10 . At this time, solar winds and solar flares are strong. Then, the cosmic rays, which are the high-energy protons and atomic nuclei 11 coming from the Sun and outside of the solar system, cannot penetrate the Earth's atmosphere as the strong magnetic field around the Sun reflects them into space. The Sun shows a periodicity in its cycle. Hathaway 12 has shown that SSN maxima occur after 11 years. When the Sun is magnetically quiescent, then the SSN is less 10 . At this time, the weak magnetic field around the Sun cannot shield the Earth from the high -energy cosmic rays 13 . It is because the energy of the cosmic rays is higher than the geomagnetic cut-off of the Earth. Then, the cosmic rays enter the Earth's atmosphere. The measured intensity of cosmic rays shows high during the magnetically quiescent state of the Sun 14 . The cosmic rays, which are primarily Hydrogen by 89%, Helium by 10% percent and all other elements by 1% 15 , penetrate the Earth's atmosphere with the velocity of light. After reaching the Earth's atmosphere, the cosmic rays collide with the atoms of the Earth's upper atmosphere to produce secondary particles, viz. , 14 C and 10 Be 16 . The interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere produces ionization. The secondary particles produced during the ionization process by the interaction of the primary cosmic rays with the atoms present in the lower atmosphere form the ultra-fine aerosols. The aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei. Thus, the cosmic rays affect the formation of clouds and rain.

Observations 17, 18 show that when the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth decreases, the cloudiness and precipitation also decreases. The secondary particles further interact with the air molecules producing other particles, that shower towards the Earth's surface. In this paper, the authors aim to seek the reason for the Corona outbreak. By assuming that the origin of the virus lies in the mystery of the solar cycle, they have examined the correlation between the outbreak of viral diseases worldwide, and the sunspot number. The investigation is further complimented with the cosmic ray flux data and the production of 10 Be over several years.

The investigation carried out in this paper is based on sunspot number data obtained from the The cosmic ray flux data over Ahmedabad during 1957-1958; 1964; and 1968-1973 In this paper, the time series of SSN, cosmic ray flux, and 10 Be have been investigated. The simultaneous time series of any two parameters have been investigated for the period over which data for both the parameters are available. The analysis is based on the occurrence of the crests and troughs of the parameters. The correlation between the SSN and the cosmic ray flux over Oulu and Ahmedabad is based on a curve estimation technique using different models, viz.

linear, power, logarithmic, logistics, inverse, inverse, cubic, compound, exponential, growth, quadratic, and sigmoid. The validity of the models is judged by the F test at a 5% level of significance.

In an attempt to find out whether the outbreak of viral diseases always coincided or followed the low sunspot number, the occurrence of the two has been investigated during 1700-2020 (Table   1 ). Table 1 shows that the sunspot minima in the 11-13 year solar cycle have always brought viral diseases across the globe. For example, in 2009, the outbreak of swine flu worldwide followed the sunspot low in 2008. In 2009, the sunspot minimum was observed. The worldwide outbreak of plague in 1856-1860 was associated with a sunspot maximum in 1856. Table 1 further shows that at times, the outbreak of diseases also coincided with the sunspot maxima. For example, the outbreak of measles in 1788 was associated with the sunspot maxima in the same

year. The outbreak of influenza worldwide in 1847-1848 had seen the sunspot maximum in 1848.

Thus, a very low or a sunspot minimum is of concern as it is likely to cause an outbreak of viral diseases. The governments of all countries should be equipped with proper mitigation techniques after ever 11-13 years. Figure 1 shows the variation of SSN during 1700-2019, and 10 Be for 1700-1994. Figure 1 shows that the SSN maxima and minima occur after a fixed interval. The maxima occur after 11.3 years and the minima occur after 11-13 years.

It is found out in Figure 1 that the 10 Be shows its high after 2-9 years. The 10 Be low also occurs after every 2-9 years. However, the minima of 10 Be had occurred in 1872, 1939, 1958, 1980 and 1990 . The values of 10 Be in these years were 0.992, 0.931, 0.994, 0.956, and 0.851, respectively. Figure 1 further shows that the SSN minima are associated with 10 Be maxima in the same year. At times, the 10 Be maxima followed in the immediate next year when the SSN minima had occurred. For example, in 1700, 1711, 1766, 1784, 1798, 1810, 1823, 1878, 1923, 1933, 1944 , the SSN minima and the 10 Be peak had occurred. The 10 Be peaks in 1734, 1756, 1776, 1857, 1890, 1914, 1965, and 1977 had followed the SSN troughs in the immediately previous years, implying that high 10 Be concentration are associated with SSN minima or a very low SSN, i.e. during the magnetically quiescent state of the Sun. Sakurai et al. 29 also found anticorrelation between the sunspot number and the Be-7 concentration. However, it is noteworthy that rarely deviations are observed between the occurrence of the SSN troughs and 10 Be peaks. For example, a 10 Be peak was observed in 1842, but the SSN trough had happened in 1843. Besides, in 1986 the SSN trough was observed, and the 10 Be was observed in 1988 and 1985. Also, in 1957, the 10 Be peak coincided with the SSN peak. 1968, 1986, 1996, and 2008 . At times, the cosmic ray maxima follow the SSN maxima after two to three years. The cosmic ray maxima of 1982 and 1991 followed the SSN minima in 1979 and 1989, respectively. Figure 2 b shows that the SSN trough in 1973 coincided with the peak cosmic ray flux. Utomo 30 has shown that as the SSN increases, the cosmic ray flux decreases.

To find out the correlation between the SSN and cosmic ray flux, the authors have fitted the yearly SSN and cosmic ray flux data over Oulu and Ahmedabad to various models, viz. linear, power, logarithmic, logistic, inverse, cubic, quadratic, inverse, sigmoid, growth, exponential, and logistic. The validity of the models is judged by the F test at a 5% level of significance. The results of the investigation are described in Figure 3 a and b, respectively over Oulu and Ahmedabad. Figure 3 a and b shows that the SSN and cosmic ray flux bear a very significant relationship with an R 2 value of 0.747 over Oulu and 0.952 over Ahmedabad. The relationship over Oulu is found to be a quadratic one (Figure 3 a) , while over Ahmedabad, a cubic relation (Figure 3 b) suits. Thus, Figure 3 a and b show that in the data-sparse regions, the cosmic ray flux can very well be estimated from the measured values of the SSN. However, the relationships are to be established using the data of cosmic ray flux and over a location and the SSN. Besides, the relationship is likely to vary from one location to another, depending on the latitude of the location. 1969, 1974, and 1982 were followed by the minima of 10 Be in 1970 10 Be in , 1975 10 Be in , and 1984 respectively. In 1990, the minimum values of cosmic ray flux and 10 Be had coincided.

However, some anomalies are observed in the occurrence of the crests and troughs of cosmic ray and 10 Be time series. For example, in 1972, the peak 10 Be was observed. The peak cosmic ray flux had occurred in 1973. Figure 4 b shows that the peak cosmic ray flux over Ahmedabad in 1973 was associated with a very high value of 10 Be. However, the peak 10 Be had occurred in 1972-one year before the cosmic ray peak had happened.

Thus, it appears that an increase in cosmic ray flux increases the production of 10 Be. This further implies that when the Sun is in the magnetically quiescent state, marked by SSN minima, a large amount of cosmic ray flux penetrates the Earth's atmosphere and a large amount of 10 Be deposit is observed. During 1690-1700, the sunspot number was minimum. During this period, the 10 Be showed the largest peak 31 Thus, Figure 5 a and b show that the SSN has a decreasing trend, while the cosmic ray flux has an increasing trend in recent years. It implies that the chance of occurrence of viral diseases in very high in the year 2019-2020. Table 1 shows that every month in 2020 will show the SSN low in the current solar cycle. Thus, the authors conclude that the Corona will be present on the Earth during the whole of 2020. Figure 7 shows the monthly mean SSN from January 2019-February 2020. 

The results of the study indicate that whenever the Sun will reach the most quiescent state, as marked by the minimum sunspot number, outbreaks of viral diseases will happen in the world.

Thus, the authors would like to draw the attention of the governments of all countries, the policymakers, the astrobiologists, and the virologists to adopt necessary mitigation techniques against the unforeseen natural calamities. As the SSN minima occur after every 11-13 years, the outbreak of viral diseases is also likely to recur after every 11-13 years. So, the authors wish to state that the next catastrophic viral attack will occur again anytime in 2030-2032. The study also indicates that places near 30N and 30S are the entry points of cosmic rays to the Earth, implying that the viral outbreaks are likely to occur at first near these latitudes. 

Scientific papers of Sir William Herschel at 100

Solar cycle changes to planetary wave propagation and their influence on the middle atmosphere circulation

Climate and the role of the Sun

The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

Cosmic rays intensity and atmosphere humidity at near Earth surface

The response in the Pacific to the Sun's decadal peaks and contrasts to cold events in the southern oscillation

Cosmic rays: A review for astrobiologists

Relations between the sunspot numbers and total solar irradiance

A prolonged Sunspot minimum. Knowledge: An Illustrated Magazine of Sci

The solar cycle

Evidence-Based Climate Science

Mutation induction in mammalian cells by accelerated heavy ions

Cosmic rays, clouds and climate

Cloudiness decreases associated with Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays

Influence of solar flares and disturbances of the interplanetary medium on the atmospheric circulation

Sunspot cycle minima and pandemics: The case for vigilance

Propagation and energy deposition of cosmic ray's muons on terrestrial environments

Electron flux and cosmic ray anomaly before H1N1 outbreak

Sunspots and flu: A correlation

A relation between daily variation of Be-7 concentration in atmosphere and sunspot numbers

Correlation analysis of solar constant, solar activity and cosmic ray

The role of cosmic rays in the Earth's atmospheric processes

Global distribution of pauses observed with satellite measurements

The authors wish to convey a deep sense of gratitude to the Management of Sona College of Technology, Salem, India for encouraging to carry out the work. The authors wish to express sincere gratitude to the scientific inquisitiveness of mankind that has led to the research finding.The authors wish to thank the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre (SIDC), Royal Observatory of Belgium for the sunspot number data and the Cosmic Ray Station, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, and the World Data Centre for Cosmic Ray, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad for the cosmic ray flux data.

Finally, the authors conclude that the outbreak of viral diseases is a natural calamity. Probably the human race cannot stop the entry or generation of viruses. What they can do is to adopt mitigation techniques to reduce casualties.

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. 5