key: cord-0691042-nh4fe04b
authors: Amos, Holly; Giron‐Nava, Alfredo; Nguyen, Tu; Cisneros‐Montemayor, Andrés M.; Colléter, Mathieu; González‐Espinosa, Pedro C.; Swartz, Wilf
title: Collapse and recovery of seafood wholesale prices in time of COVID‐19
date: 2022-04-12
journal: Fish Fish (Oxf)
DOI: 10.1111/faf.12665
sha: 8a071d25a9839cbfc2472f618dc62bd578219d73
doc_id: 691042
cord_uid: nh4fe04b

The COVID‐19 pandemic has spread around the world, disrupting economies, societies and daily life. Early research anticipated significant negative impacts for the globalized seafood supply network. Here, we explore the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on wholesale prices from five major seafood markets around the world. An anomalies analysis was used to establish a 5‐year baseline price for each commodity. Daily price data from 2020 were compared to the baseline to identify collapses (>1.96 SE from baseline) and analyse collapse characteristics (timing, duration and magnitude). Non‐uniform price collapses were observed across, and within, the markets analysed. Toyosu (Tokyo) Market experienced price collapses to 51% of commodities, Rungis (Paris) 36%, Mercamadrid (Madrid) 19%, Mercado La Nueva Viga (Mexico City) 35% and the Portland Fish Exchange (Portland, Maine) 32%. Collapse magnitude varied from 11% to 79% of the 5‐year average price. Average collapse duration ranged from 13 to 24 weeks with some commodities (4%–22%) remaining collapsed at the end of 2020. For markets where volume data were available, collapses were also noted (59% of commodities in Toyosu, 10% in Mercamadrid and 19% in Portland Fish Exchange); in these cases, the volume collapse was more severe than the related price collapse. To better detect, anticipate and respond to future shocks, we recommend that relevant government agencies conduct comprehensive economic reviews of the COVID‐19 pandemic throughout the seafood supply chain, including the outcomes of emergency measures, short‐ and long‐term implications of market volatility and identify areas of supply and labour vulnerabilities.

Fisheries are known to regularly experience economic, ecological and technological shocks. Natural disasters that disturb fisheries operations or productivity, trade and political disputes that interrupt seafood supply networks and sudden and unanticipated shifts in fisheries management policies have been noted to have significant impacts on fisheries . While analyses of shocks to fishery production have revealed that fisheries in different regions of the world experience shocks with varying frequency and intensity, shocks are consistently seen over recent decades which "suggests that shocks are a common feature of [seafood] production systems" (Gephart et al., 2017, p. 28) . Observed fishery shocks were most commonly attributed to political challenges, fishery management and overexploitation of fisheries (Gephart et al., 2017) . As COVID-19 impacted societies, markets and imports and exports around the world, its implications on fisheries and coastal communities, both from the public health and economic perspective were anticipated to be unprecedented and largely unknown.

At the time of writing, over a year after the WHO declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, a high level of uncertainty about the future course of the pandemic persists. We also do not know what the long-term impacts will be for fisheries and fishing communities. In nations where fisheries are recognized as an essential service, operations have adapted to evolving health guidance with associated costs. Concerns have been raised around the health of those working in the fishery sector (Bennett et al., 2020) as the nature of fisheries work carries some risk for COVID-19 transmission (Sorensen et al., 2020) . Additionally, migrant and temporary workers have faced uncertainty around travel, additional precautionary measures (Baker, 2020; White, 2020; Withers, 2020) and stigma associated with fear that workers may carry the virus into the communities where they work (Havice et al., 2020) .

In addition to the health concerns that accompany the pandemic, the fishery sector has been subject to economic impacts. Research that emerged early in the pandemic highlighted media and anecdotal observations of fishery closures (Artelle et al., 2020; Stueck, 2020) , shortened fishing seasons (White et al., 2021) , shutdowns and largescale market disruptions (Bennett et al., 2020) . Demand for seafood has shifted as a result of disease containment measures (Jamwal & Phulia, 2021) . Public health measures mandated business closures, physical distancing and lockdowns, shifting seafood demand away from hospitality and food service (Havice et al., 2020; Love et al., 2021) and towards shelf-stable and frozen products that help mitigate fluctuating supply and demand and are more easily stored and prepared at home (Havice et al., 2020; White et al., 2021) . Reports early in the pandemic suggested that due to increased demand, new regional and local supply chains were being established and increasingly used; however, the extent to which these shifts will persist remains unknown (Bassett et al., 2021) . The flow of fisheries products along globalized supply chains has been impeded by disruptions to international trade and transportation, including reduced freight availability, increased cost (Havice et al., 2020; Lennane, 2020) and backlogs (Havice et al., 2020) . Coping strategies that emerged in the first months of the pandemic disruptions included increased food sharing, reliance on local networks, increased direct marketing (Bennett et al., 2020) , diversifying supply chains (Love et al., 2021) and increased reliance on subsistence fisheries (Higgs, 2021) .

Surveys conducted early in the pandemic have confirmed some of the anticipated impacts discussed above. Survey data collected from fishers in the Northeast United States reported a loss of income related to the pandemic within the first months . Other survey data from aquaculture producers in the United States support earlier media and anecdotal reports of reduced demand, resulting in increased costs for producers and the need to seek out new market channels (van Senten et al., 2020) . It is important to recognize that costly health precautions may be difficult to implement and further supportive measures may not be accessible for fishers (Okyere et al., 2020) . The pandemic's impact on mobility was highlighted early on as particularly concerning for a sector that relies on a globalized supply chain (Havice et al., 2020) . This concern was confirmed by reports that international supply chains had become "effectively inactive since the onset of COVID-19 [as of May 30, 2020]" (Bassett et al., 2021, p. 3) and the loss of domestic and international markets had a significant impact on those in the United States fishery sector.

Measures to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the fishery sector had associated real costs with knock-on economic implications. In some cases, those working in the sector are confronted with weighing the risk of potential exposure to the virus and the financial repercussions of refraining from working . Fishery sector workers have lost income and employment due to fishery closures and supply chain impacts (FAO, 2021a; van Senten et al., 2020) . Disruptions to the supply chain impact those at all points along the chain with backlogs and oversupply or too little product available (Jamwal & Phulia, 2021) . Each of these impacts has potential to cause long-term consequences for the fisheries sector.

While the impacts of the pandemic are still evolving, we are increasingly able to gather data to inform our understanding of how the pandemic impacts unfolded throughout 2020. Research that was conducted early in the pandemic sought to utilize the data that was available at the time to understand the evolving impacts of the pandemic on the fishery sector. As we have learned to live with the pandemic, research methods, data availability and our understanding of the short-and longer term impacts of the pandemic have improved.

TA B L E 1 Details of the markets selected for analysis include the statistics and characteristics that highlight their importance for the global seafood supply chain and provide context for the interpretation of COVID-19 impacts on each market. Mexico and Madrid both identify "frequent" prices, which is understood here to be a mid-range price Literature that emerged early in the pandemic outlined three main concerns around the market impacts of the pandemic based on common and grounded assumptions of supply and demand. First, there was a common expectation of a widespread drop in demand for fish and seafood products as a result of pandemic restrictions and reduced activity to prevent the spread of the disease. Second, there was a further expectation that products destined for hospitality, restaurants and catering services (such as higher value, luxury and fresh products) would be more severely impacted. Third, the spread of the pandemic and associated restrictions was expected to cause multiple opportunities for bottlenecks along the seafood supply chain, such as during processing, storage and transportation.

Each of these market-driven impacts has the potential to jeopardize income, economic security and livelihoods for those along the seafood supply chain and can of course act separately or simultaneously.

In this article, we explore whether these expectations were realized by analysing daily wholesale price data from five seafood markets across global regions, including some of the largest markets in the world. We recognize that price is not necessarily reflective of income, as fishers and wholesalers could choose to switch to lower cost and lower risk alternatives (Dahl & Ogland, 2014) . However, price uncertainty and lower overall prices can certainly reflect overall earnings and the state of local economies where fisheries play a major role (Watson et al., 2021) . We, therefore, used market price data given its utility and availability across markets, and we combined this price data with volume data wherever possible as a first step in understanding the economic impact of the pandemic on fishworkers and consumers. We particularly focus on understanding how seafood markets and specific commodities responded to the economic and social shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether response patterns were uniform around the world. Further, we contribute to related research by analysing the length and extent of price recovery periods for seafood commodities-an area largely unexplored in the early pandemic literature.

We collected data and analysed the economic impacts of COVID-19 on five seafood markets around the world where daily prices were Note: We used mid-price for all markets, except France and Japan, for which High Price data were more complete and thus was considered more reliable. N total refers to the total number of commodities that were analysed for each market. N collapse refers to the number of commodities that experienced a collapse. Mean values are presented for the week and the duration of the first collapse and the magnitude of the first collapse, expressed as a per cent variation from the 5-year baseline. N yet to be recovered refers to commodities that remain below 1.96 SE by week 53. Percentages are not weighted. Mean collapse data are for commodities that were considered to be recovered within 2020. Commodities that were not recovered by December 31 2020 have been excluded from collapse characteristics data.

data from 2015 to 2019 were incorporated into the analysis to allow for an anomalies analysis to account for seasonal fluctuations in prices and the variability of fish/seafood prices, thereby reducing the likelihood of falsely associating price fluctuations with COVID-19.

Data were accessed in February 2021. All data publicly available on each market's webpage were retrieved and processed using Python (version 3.6.4).

We performed an anomaly analysis using 5 years of data ( Averages in 2020 were compared to the average pre-2020 to determine significant changes per week of the year (weeks 1-52). Prices were adjusted for inflation in national currency up to 2020 using the Consumer Price Index (The World Bank, 2020).

We defined a price collapse as a weekly price value that was below the threshold of −1.96 SE for four or more consecutive weeks.

Conversely, if a commodity that experienced a collapse presented values higher than −1.96 SE for four consecutive weeks, we considered it as a recovery. Following these definitions, some commodities could experience more than one collapse over the analysed time period. We report the mean for the week of the first and second collapses, as well as the duration in number of weeks, and magnitude measured as the per cent variation from the 5-year baseline.

Price collapses were observed across all the markets analysed;

however, price responses to the pandemic were not uniform across markets nor consistent within a market (Table 2) volume data available, the collapse in volume was more severe in magnitude than the related price collapse.

Price and volume collapses were not uniform among the markets analysed. As seen in Figure 

Toyosu (and its predecessor in Tsukiji) is one of the three central wholesale markets operated by the City of Tokyo that handle seafood products. Accounting for 90% of the total sales (in value) in Tokyo, it is the primary seafood market in Japan. Nationally, the mar- Consequently, price fluctuations observed were likely driven by speculations over global and domestic seafood demands rather than as a direct response to the government's COVID-related restrictions.

Price collapses staggered throughout the year (See Table 2 , Figure   S1 ), with most occurring between week 5 (early February) and week 30 (mid-August). Twenty three (25%) of commodities experienced a price collapse prior week 12, prior to the State of Emergency declaration. The duration of price collapse ranged with four commodities (4%) recovering within 8 weeks, 19 commodities (21%) within 20 weeks and 19% of commodities remaining collapsed through the end of 2020. Collapse magnitude ranged from −47% to no collapse, with the average magnitude of collapses around 18%.

Volume collapses preceded price collapse with 13 (14%) prior to

week 8 and 27 (30%) prior to week 12 (see Table 2 , Figure S1 ). No significant trend was noted in weight data, suggesting that the volume of both supply and demand remained unchanged. Fifty-nine per cent of commodities experienced a collapse in volume. Forty-five per cent experienced a second collapse during the year as well and

14% remained collapsed at the end of 2020.

With 91 commodity types, daily price data from the Toyosu Market allowed for comparison across product forms (i.e. "fresh/ chilled", "frozen" and "prepared"), which revealed that some product forms responded differently to the pandemic. Unsurprisingly, some fresh/chilled products were more likely to collapse than their frozen and prepared counterparts (see Table 3 ). The latter two product types allow for longer shelf-life, thus enabling buyers to respond to mid-to long-term market forecast rather than short-term conditions. Corresponding volume data suggest that there were shifts from fresh towards frozen products (see Figure 2 ) with sellers foregoing price premium associated with the fresh products. There was a notable erosion of the high price premium within commodities (See Figure 3) , potentially related to demand shifting to more shelf stable products and the impact of COVID precautions on the hospitality sector, where premium products are more commonly desired. At Marché de Rungis, 43% of commodities experienced a collapse in 2020 (See Figure 1) . The greatest proportion (54%) of collapses occurred prior to week 12 (late March), although some commodities saw impacts as early as week 6 (Mid-February) or as late as week 50

(mid-December) (See Figure S2 ). Average collapse duration was about 18 weeks, although, as seen in Figure 1 collapse duration varied.

twenty-two per cent of commodities remained collapsed at the end of 2020. The initial collapse was, on average, 16% below average baseline prices. The notable price collapse around week 12 corresponds with the announcement of a 15-day national lockdown that began March 17, 2020. A second lockdown followed in October 2020; however, there was no subsequent collapses in price for species that had recovered.

Fresh commodity price collapses were more significant than for comparable frozen and prepared commodities. Forty-one per cent of fresh commodities collapsed, 34% of processed commodities collapsed and 5% (one) frozen commodity price collapsed (See Table 3 ).

It is of note that frozen fish benefited from an increased demand by consumers in 2020 compared to previous years, especially during the lockdown periods (FranceAgriMer, 2020a (FranceAgriMer, , 2020b .

In 2020, the average first sale price reported across Despite these commodities supply common market (i.e. restaurations, FranceAgriMer, 2020c, 2021b; Jégou, 2020) and share similar characteristics, their response diverged. Another similar commodity, sole, showed no effect at the national level with prices remaining comparable to 2019 (FranceAgriMer, 2021b).

The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Spain on January 31, 2020 (Reuters, 2020b with all non-essential food service establishments closed (Gobierno de España, 2020). On March 28, a mandate for all non-essential workers to stay home for 2 weeks was enacted (Reuters, 2020b) .

The State of Emergency was eventually ended June 21, 2020 (Dellana, 2020) . However, curfews and other COVID-19 precautions remained in place amid continuing presence of the disease.

There was no significant trend on the impact of COVID-19 on prices for Mercamadrid when analysing whether more expensive resources experienced longer, larger or more frequent collapses.

However, negative changes in price and volume were predominant, with 19% of commodities showing price collapses. The average collapse duration of 13.7 weeks ( Table 2 ) with 6% of commodities remaining collapsed at the end of 2020. Average magnitude of collapse was 18.5% below the 5-year price baseline. Volume collapses were also noted with 10% of commodities experiencing a volume collapse and 2% remaining collapsed at the end of 2020. Collapses in volume were larger than those observed for price, with the mean magnitude 

The first COVID cases in Mexico were reported on Feb 28, 2020.

Over a month later, on March 30, 2020, a Health Emergency was declared, and all non-essential activities were suspended for 30 days (Reuters, 2020a) . A traffic light system was announced on May 14,

of Mexico (KPMG, 2020). Additionally, in early May, another large market in Mexico City was designated an "Area of High Contagion" but was not closed given food markets' role in the local food supply chain (Torres, 2020) . Throughout the pandemic, different areas of the country have moved among the four levels (green, yellow, orange and red) of the traffic light system to advise the public on restrictions and other precautionary measures, but few -if anymandatory closures have been enacted after May of 2020.

Many commodities (n = 21, 41%) were below the 5-year baseline price at the beginning of 2020 indicating that the market was already facing a downturn prior to the declaration of the pandemic (See Figure   S4 ). Many of these commodities remained collapsed throughout the year (n = 17, 33%) and have been excluded from the analysis here, as the reason for the price drop is likely not due to COVID and would artificially increase the duration of collapses experienced by other

commodities. An additional 10 (19%) commodities traded in this market experienced a collapse prior to week 12 (late March) following the declaration of the pandemic. Unlike other markets in this study, the late March collapses were short, lasting 8-12 weeks on average. Four per cent of commodities that collapsed throughout 2020 remained collapsed at the end of 2020 (See Table 2 ). The mean magnitude of collapse was 10.7% below the average price for the commodity.

A number of commodity prices were already flagged as 'collapsed' in our data at the beginning of 2020 and, for the most part, remained collapsed throughout, such as shrimp, prawn and oyster.

These collapses were likely not related to the COVID-19 pandemic, as these species are fished nationally and the market impact preceded 

The 

Overall, the large-scale, prolonged market-driven impacts antici- Research emerging early in the pandemic anticipated the nature of the commodities and how they are consumed would play a role in the impacts observed. Some research cited reports of increased sales in shelf-stable (Havice et al., 2020; White et al., 2021) and frozen seafood commodities (Love et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2020; White et al., 2021) , suggesting that these commodities may be less significantly impacted compared to their fresh counterparts. Our analysis did not find this to be a widespread impact, with a few exceptions such as bluefin tuna at Toyosu and octopus at Rungis. Furthermore, the expectation that commodities with lower average prices might not have experienced as big of a drop as those with high average prices as the latter are considered luxury goods, was not observed across all markets. By contrast, in Portland there was a weak, but significant trend where lower value resources decreased the most in price and volume.

The seafood market over the past decades has developed from a series of local and regional markets into a global commodity market (Crona et al., 2016; Swartz et al., 2010) , encompassing a wide range of species groups (Anderson et al., 2018) . The export value of seafood exceeds that of any other food commodity, and its value exceeds that of all other animal proteins combined (Asche et al., 2015) .

This deeply integrated global supply chain means that when a shock hits the seafood commodity market, the impact is felt throughout the supply chain and across the world. In this case, we did not find a consistent relationship across markets. This suggests that the role that each market plays in the domestic and international seafood market factors into how the impacts of the pandemic were realized. 

The seafood sector is diverse and has employed numerous adaptation strategies to address impacts of the pandemic. Some price and volume impacts may have been softened or masked because of the seasonality of the fishery, adaptation strategies employed and the level of volatility that those in the fishery sector are accustomed to

given the nature of the sector. Private sector responses include stopping fishing activities, reducing catch in the wake of dropping prices (as seen in Portland), and direct-to-consumer sales (Smith, 2020) .

The recovery in prices following the first collapse might be attributed to easing of restrictions as well as adaptations by businesses.

Adaptations occurred in many shapes and forms: fishers chose to stop fishing, thereby reducing supply, or to pivot to catching and selling species that can be sold in local markets and consumed at home. Some supply chains may have become more localized during the pandemic (White et al., 2021) . All these factors could contribute to the initial recovery.

Price volatility and uncertainty are generally viewed as unfavourable, and both are defining traits of commodity prices in 2020.

Moreover, the volatility mainly involves sharp decreases in prices (as opposed to increases), which are associated with the waves of the pandemic. These are bound to have negative effects on businesses (Campbell et al., 2021) as well as people's well-being. Despite the rebound efforts, the commodity prices reflect lower demand and volumes, and thus lower revenues for fishers and businesses in fisheries.

Our analysis looks at commodity prices and price trends around the world to explore the economic impact of the pandemic. We see from price data that commodities across all markets are affected, though the duration and magnitude differ across locations and commodity types. While an analysis of prices reveals differences across markets, a look at prices alone cannot reveal the root causes of these differences, nor potential policies to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on prices.

The responses discussed above suggest that those within the fishery sector may be used to managing the volatility that is characteristic of the sector. This may have contributed to muting the effect of the pandemic and allowing them to weather the early pandemic shocks with generally short-lived and relatively mild economic impacts.

Further study is needed to confirm this with data that is more directly indicative of income, economic security and livelihood impacts.

Long-term economic impacts of the pandemic are yet unknown.

As the pandemic draws on for nearly 2 years at the time of writ- Fish Exchange) of the markets analysed. Further data around the volume sold at various price points were not available across markets.

As well, fisheries catch information at a similar temporal resolution was also not available. Further research that incorporates the volume landed and sold would allow for a deeper understanding of the supply side of the fish price impacts and analysis of the supply-demand disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pace and magnitude of change related to the COVID-19 pandemic has been rapid, with significant shifts in cases, restrictions and lockdowns occurring within days and weeks, rather than the usual monthly, quarterly or annual scale that is often used to evaluate economic performance in non-COVID times (Krugman, 2022) . The rapidity of price fluctuation has far exceeded what is observed in "normal" times. Adapting to this faster rate of change requires that the range and availability of data be improved to allow for detection and response to rapidly developing market disruptions and be able to address the economic and social implications. Further, fisheries related data are often not available in real time and may be delayed by months to years. The timeliness of data availability must also be improved to support our understanding of how shocks are impacting those along the seafood supply chain in near-real time.

The COVID pandemic provides a case study that we can learn from to improve how governments, industry partners and others respond to shocks in the fishery sector. Relevant government agencies can use the COVID-19 pandemic to understand the impact, response and longer term implications of shocks to the fishery sector. Through rigorously reviewing the short-and long-term implications of the pandemic, as well as the details and adequacy of government intervention they can gain an understanding of the implications on the market as well as income, economic security and livelihoods for those working within the seafood supply chain. With an improved understanding of these impacts decision makers will be able to more accurately identify strengths and vulnerabilities within the supply chain.

Decision makers should apply the lessons gleaned from the COVID-19 pandemic to a model/map/network of their seafood supply chain to gain an understanding of the landscape of actors, actions and key points for the continuity of the supply chain. Other industries related to large-scale logistics and supply chain management may provide tools and approaches that can be drawn upon to build a model/map/network. Combining this model with improved data availability would allow for timely monitoring of volumes and values throughout the supply chain to trigger investigations of shifts in the seafood supply chain and respond appropriately in the face of future shocks. Building a comprehensive understanding of the supply chain will also allow policies to be made at the level of observed market impacts, not solely on assumptions of economic dynamics.

The authors acknowledge support from the Nippon Foundation

Ocean Nexus Center at the University of Washington EarthLab.

Fellowship of the World Economic Forum Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Data for this research are available at request as.CSV files and is accessible from the respective markets through online databases or at request.

Holly Amos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5268-7527

Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor https://orcid. org/0000-0002-4132-5317

Mathieu Colléter https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7653-854X

Pedro C. González-Espinosa https://orcid. org/0000-0003-3303-7283 Withers, P. (2020, March 21) . Seafood plants scrambling after border restrictions block many foreign workers. CBC News. https://www. cbc.ca/news/canad a/nova-scoti a/canad ian-borde r-closu re-tempo rary-forei gn-worke r-short age-covid -19-1.5500911

Additional supporting information may be found in the online version of the article at the publisher's website.

How to cite this article: Amos, H., Giron-Nava, A., Nguyen, 

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