key: cord-0745763-8njoj0oa
authors: Tonne, Cathryn
title: Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for accelerating sustainable development
date: 2020-11-17
journal: Environ Res
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110482
sha: b856652987fff7b53c9eb12396e06c867fb8470d
doc_id: 745763
cord_uid: 8njoj0oa

nan

It will soon be one year since the detection of the first cases of COVID-19 and the identification of the novel SARS-COV-2 virus. Since then this complex crisis with interlinked public health, social, political, and economic dimensions has tested the world's capacity to respond. Several lessons from COVID-19 are directly relevant to tackling the climate emergency and advancing sustainable development more broadly.

First, the COVID-19 pandemic shows that the scientific community can generate huge amounts of new, practical knowledge in record time. Remarkably, new specifically designed COVID therapy (as opposed to repurposed drugs) and several vaccines are already in phase III trials or approved for early or limited use. [1, 2] As of 13 October, Pubmed, the publications database focused on biomedicine and health sciences, returns over 63000 publications for the search term "COVID-19". In comparison, a search for "climate change" returns only 53000 publications since 1975, pointing to glaring differences in societal and scientific priorities. With renewed urgency, and alignment of priorities and incentives, the scientific community, including the health sciences, could develop new climate change knowledge at the same scale and pace as for COVID-19.

Second, COVID-19 has highlighted that, even in an emergency, urgency cannot trump robustness in scientific research. Not only does rushed, poor quality research risk adding more noise than actionable knowledge, but it also risks misleading decision makers or public opinion on critical issues. More than 35 retracted COVID-19 publications have been identified so far in the Retraction Watch database. Quality, not quantity, must be emphasized.

Third, COVID-19 has been a salient example of reduced barriers at the science-policy interface, at least in countries where leaders looked to, rather than disregarded, science to shape decision making and communication strategies. It is not just the scale and pace of scientific production that is striking about COVID-19, but also how quickly new knowledge has been put into application.

Imagine what science and society could achieve in one year if, similar to COVID-19, nearly the entire scientific enterprise shifted to focus on climate solutions; new research and examples of bold action about climate change were regular front page news for nearly all media outlets; and new knowledge was put into practice within weeks or months rather than decades.

Innovation and research are important to tackling climate change, but much is already known about effective climate solutions. One analysis indicates that reaching the point when levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stop climbing and start to steadily decline is possible using a broad suite of existing, well-proven solutions which are financially viable and scalable. [3] These solutions include reducing sources of CO 2 through, for example, shifting electricity production to renewable sources, reducing food waste, and adopting plant-based diets as well as supporting carbon sinks by shifting agricultural practices and restoring ecosystems. [3] Innovation and research will expand the options available and are particularly needed for heavy industry, aviation, and technology to capture CO 2 from the atmosphere for sustainable use or storage.

[4] However, waiting for innovation is simply not a viable strategy for stabilizing the climate. Society has the tools, technology, and knowledge to begin the required transformation today.

The pathways to reach agreed goals to stabilize the climate have implications for other societal goals, including promoting health. COVID-19 reminds us of the many links among health and sustainability challenges and the need to focus on co-drivers of these challenges, co-benefits of solutions, and the inevitability of trade offs.

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted in 2015 have broad support at international, national, and local political levels and within civil society. Progress towards the goals before COVID-19 was far too slow, and the pandemic has brought immense additional barriers as economies have contracted, inequalities are exacerbated, and students worldwide miss out on quality education. However, it would be a mistake to conclude that the SDGs are somehow less relevant now. The SDG framework remains the best guide for identifying integrated solutions to protect the health of current and future generations while minimizing negative trade-offs during the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent recovery.

In fact, further progress towards many of the SDGs might have reduced the likelihood of the emergence of the SARS-COV-2 virus; the scale of the COVID-19 health burden; and the societal impacts of the pandemic response. We might have faced the challenge of COVID-19 with stronger health systems, fewer people living in extreme poverty, less inequality, and healthier environments. One assessment found that meeting 18% of SDG targets might reduce the risk of new viruses spilling over from other species to humans, particularly targets related to reducing wildlife trafficking and the trade in illegal wildlife products. [5] Further progress towards SDG 3 targets (Good Health and Well-being) could have reduced pressure on fragile health systems burdened by high levels of communicable disease; reduced the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, chronic kidney, and respiratory disease; [6] and strengthened health systems and the capacity for early warning and management of global health risks. Existing social, economic, and health inequalities have amplified the negative impacts of the pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 on the poorest and most vulnerable people might have been less staggering had we done more since 2015 to reduce inequalities (SDG 10).

On the other hand, progress towards other goals could have made the pandemic worse and may increase the risk of the next zoonotic disease outbreak. [5] The construction of roads and increased connectivity to remote areas (related to SDG 9) is likely to increase risks from several infectious diseases. [7] Increased transportation infrastructure and travel and is one of the main human-mediated drivers of the emergence and spread of zoonotic disease. [8] The SDG framework highlights where our response to protecting health during the COVID-19 pandemic has hampered progress towards other goals, for example, the huge increase in single-use plastics (e.g. disposable masks and gloves, take away food containers), most of which will end up mismanaged in aquatic and terrestrial environments (related to SDGs 12 and 14) .

The 2016 Paris Agreement reaffirmed the goal of limiting temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, substantially reducing risks from climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic shows the scale of the challenge to reduce emissions sufficiently.

Global CO 2 emissions for 2020 are estimated to be between 4-7% lower than those in 2019, with reductions largely due to behaviour change such as reduced mobility. [9] Reductions came at immense societal cost. However, they are roughly equivalent to the reductions required year-on-year to reach agreed climate targets. Keeping global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels requires reductions of 3% a year from 2020; keeping below 1.5 °C requires reductions of 8% a year.

[10] Had we started in 2010, however, cuts of only 3% a year would have been needed to reach the 1.5°C target. COVID-19 shows us that behaviour change alone will not be enough. Governments must pursue structural reductions in emissions through ambitious and sustained policies, for example, accelerating development and deployment of cleaner energy.

Not only is climate action one of the SDGs, but it is also critical to achieving other goals due to the integrated nature of the framework. One assessment has shown that applying existing technologies and practices that contribute directly to reducing greenhouse gases would contribute benefits for all other SDGs, including large benefits for health (SDG 3). [11] Negative trade-offs exist, but are substantially outweighed by the benefits. [11] Similarly, an analysis of non-climate impacts of strategies for decarbonising the power supply showed that scaling up renewable power generation (such as solar and wind) resulted in the largest human health benefits, and these benefits clearly outweighed trade-offs of resource depletion involved in the production of renewable infrastructure. [12] 

The world has been trapped on an unsustainable pathway, reinforced by mechanisms that oppose change, such as infrastructure with long lifespans, investment cycles on the order of decades, and cultural and political inertia. [13] Crises, be they health, economic, or environmental, give rise to uncertainty and confusion that can act as windows of opportunity. Destabilizing the status quo can shift power structures and motivate actors to deviate sharply from existing policies and plans. [13] Although there is a high risk of rebounding to business as usual, COVID-19 should be seized upon as an opening for transformation. The economic shock of COVID-19 should trigger policies and shifting norms that could deliver decarbonisation and progress towards other SDGs. The most promising may include subsidies to decarbonize energy production and storage; carbon-neutral cities; divesting from fossil fuel assets; and increasing public perception of fossil fuel use as immoral. [13] Public support will be essential. The pandemic has given us several examples of effective leadership and communication strategies to build support for difficult measures in the interests of the common good. Heads of states in Germany and New Zealand have been notable examples of decisive action and effective communication of the rationale behind their policies. [14] Such experience could be valuable for building support and shaping norms to tackle other complex societal challenges.

The current model of responding to serial crises misses important opportunities for integrated solutions to multiple challenges. Instead, systemic, structural change through long-term, international cooperation is needed to accelerate progress towards the SDGs. Policy makers have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to use stimulus packages while reviving their economies to bring greenhouse emission reductions in line with the Paris agreement and to implement the SDGs rapidly. The stakes for selecting a radically more sustainable path forward could not be higher.

University of Oxford. Randomized evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy (Recovery)

The Drawdown Review: Climate Solutions for a New Decade

Sustainable Development Goals: pandemic reset

Factors associated with COVID-19-related death using OpenSAFELY

Environmental Determinants of Infectious Disease: A Framework for Tracking Causal Links and Guiding Public Health Research

Preventing the next pandemic: zoonotic disease and how to break the J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f chain of transmission. Nairobi

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

Drawdown's "System of Solutions" Helps to Achieve the SDGs

Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050

12 Lessons learned from the management of the coronavirus pandemic