key: cord-0767963-p3qhjjdf authors: Parvez, S. M.; Tabassum, F.; Ali, H. M. S.; Hossain, M. M. title: Prediction of the infection of COVID-19 in Bangladesh by classical SIR model date: 2020-10-23 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 sha: 326cc5cd04486c8217427d473df44c7a3a212ed5 doc_id: 767963 cord_uid: p3qhjjdf The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) started from Wuhan, China, at the end of December 2019. It is one of the leading public health challenges in the world because of high transmissibility. The first patient of COVID-19 was officially reported on March 8, 2020, in Bangladesh. Using the epidemiological data up to October 17, 2020, we try to estimate the infectious size. In this paper, we used Classical SIR (Susceptible- Infected-Recovered), model. The epidemic has now spread to more than 216 countries around the world. The necessary reproduction number R_o of Bangladesh is 1.92. The primary data was collected from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard (BANGLADESH: CASE TREND). In our analysis, the statistical parameters specify the best import to provide the predicted result. We projected that the epidemic curve pulling down in Bangladesh will start from the first week of November (November 4, 2020) and may end in the last week of July (July 24, 2021). It is also estimated that the start of acceleration on May 24, 2020, in 53 days, and the start of steady growth on September 10, 2020, in 109 days. The start of the ending phase of the epidemic may appear in the first week of November 2020, and the epidemic is expected to be finished by the last week of July 2021. However, these approximations may become invalid if a large variety of data occurs in upcoming days. The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that was started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 that has been declared a pandemic. From the world health Organization (WHO), we know that already more than 216 countries have been infected by . Globally Bangladesh confirmed 391,586 COVID-19 cases, including 5699 related death cases [3] . In most cases, COVID-19 infection causes only mild illness. However, the disease could be fatal for some elderly people and those with pre-existing medical situations such ashigh blood pressure, diabetes, heart, and respiratory disorders.Respiratory droplets released when someone with the virus sneezes, coughs, or talks, and contact transmission (e.g., touches of contaminated hands to someone's mouth, nose, or eyes) with an incubation period of 2-14 days are the two most important symptoms of transmission of COVID-19 [4] [5] . Almost the virus spread all over the world and outbreak globally. The risk factors for COVID-19 spreading include close contact (e.g., within 2 meters) with an infected person and being coughed or sneezed on by someone who has COVID-19. Since the vaccine of COVID-19 has not yet been fully developed, there is only one to prevent coronavirus practice good hand hygiene,compulsorily using masks and social distancing.Bangladesh declared the first confirmed coronavirus cases after three people tested positive for the infectious virus in the . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 doi: medRxiv preprint capital Dhaka on March 8, 2020 [6] . Bangladesh first started a nationwide holiday from March 26 to April 4, while the country finds the first coronavirus death on March 18, 2020, ten days after the finding of the first three COVID-19 cases.Bangladesh extended the lockdown until May 30, 2020 [7] and adopted precautionary measures such as a showing of passengers at the airport, suspension of transport, limiting public gathering, including flights, trains, buses, enhancing quarantine duration, devoted COVID-19 hospitals, and enhancing sample test during the lockdown period to halt or to reduce the community spread of this novel deadly virus.In this article, we used a study of the Classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model [8] for predicting the nature of the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Using this model, we try to forecasts the epidemic size of Coronavirus in Bangladesh by the quality of data available. The classical SIR model is an epidemiological model that has been used to predicate the number of infected with a contagious illness in a large population. We divided the population being studied into three different compartments, such as S, I, and R in this method. These three compartments are a function of time t, and they changed by the differential equation . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 doi: medRxiv preprint In the above equation, ߚ is a positive constant representing a constant rate, and ଵ ఊ is the average infection period. Particularly these three equations can be reduced to one function about the total infection constant (C=I+R). We collect data from the latest patient case trend data and statistics around coronavirus patient cases for Bangladesh till August 26, 2020 [3] . The simulation of this model was performed using fminsearch, and the ode45 functions of MARAB were implemented according to M. Batista [14] . The outcome of the calculation is presented in Table- which comes out to be 17.8615% of total collected samples (Table-3 ) [3] . . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 doi: medRxiv preprint . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 doi: medRxiv preprint In our study, we try to use the classical SIR epidemiological model to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic in the Bangladesh region. The value of the basic reproduction number (ܴ ሻ is found to be 1.153 for the Bangladesh population. The ending phase of the epidemic may arise in the end week of November 2020, and it may be ended by the last week of July 2021. The forecast is based on the data analysis by MATLAB and that the current deterrent effort will be continued. 1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC 2. Last updated: October 21, 2020, 00:59 GMT . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 doi: medRxiv preprint WHO Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulation Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) A review of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. the Lancet Covid-19 spread: Reproduction of data and prediction using a SIR model on Euclidean network The mathematics of infectious diseases Spread of Covid-19: a Study Case of Honduras, Forecasting with Logistic Model and SIR Model Available:https://www.maplesoft.com/applications/download.aspx?SF=127836/SIRModel.p df 12. D. Smith and L. Moore, The SIR Model for Spread of Disease -The Differential EquationModel, pp. 1-5, 2020. Available:https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sirmodel-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20216846 doi: medRxiv preprint