key: cord-0854889-co4ckyp9 authors: Mbabazi, Fulgensia Kamugisha title: Projection of COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda date: 2020-04-06 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051086 sha: 655ce1a9137ef415bf0c2b7876598da8fdbaaf78 doc_id: 854889 cord_uid: co4ckyp9 COVID-19 (Corona Virus) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-COV-2). The virus that was first discovered in China Wuhan Province about 3 months ago (first cases were reported in Wuhan on December 31st, 2019) has spread world wide. The six (6) top countries (excluding China) most affected so far include; USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and Iran. With Italy showing the highest death toll. In Uganda where it was discovered on 19/3/2020 with one (01) case has just in nine (9) days, increased to thirty (30) infected individuals. This model is a wake-up call over the rate at which COVID-19 is likely to spread throughout the country. Thus it is a guide for policymakers and planners to benchmark on for solutions to this deadly virus. advance to a severe pneumonia triggering shortness of breath [13] . From the time of exposure/contact to virus, symptoms may take up to two (2) weeks [1-14 days ] to show up [11] . In severe cases the disease may consequently lead to death [12] . The top 6 countries reporting the most outside China, globally, Table 1 and Table 2 [9]. The mortality due to COVID-19 varies from country to country, the age and health of the population seem to be aged above 60 years old [6] . Confirmed . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint . Let the infected population at time t be I(t) = I. We assume the rate of increase of the infected population ( dI dt ) to be directly proportional to the infected population (I). From eqn (1), . We note at the beginning of the epidemic Uganda (East Africa-Sub-Saharan Africa) reported 9 infected individuals (2 days) [I(2)=9]. Current information from Ministry of Health-Uganda (25/3/2020) 3 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051086 doi: medRxiv preprint shows an increase by 5 more infected cases, rising to fourteen (14 infected individuals)/ cases in four days( I(4)=14) [5] . From eqn (1) we have Solving the above equations: Therefore, from eqn (5) CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The Author would like to thank Dr. Yahaya Gavamukulya, Busitema University, Uganda and Mr. Kamugisha Joram Kembo for the technical support offered in the preparation of this manuscript. The data supporting this exponential model is from the daily updates on COVID-19, in the world, and they have been suitably cited as references in this paper in Table 1 , Table 2 and Table 3 . Parameter values have been estimated using data released on a daily basis from the Ministry of Health Uganda. The author declares that she has no conflicts of interest. Radiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet Epidemiological situation and Africa CDC activities Coronavirus pathogenesis COVID-19, Ministry of Health updates-Uganda Coronavirus: Amid the global pandemic, lessons for Africa, Friday Local transmission: indicates locations where the source of infection is within the reporting location Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia Pathological findings of COVID-19 associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The Lancet respiratory medicine The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreakâĂŞan update on the status