key: cord-0897383-w3cjupvw authors: Jackson, RB; Friedlingstein, P; Quere, C Le; Abernethy, S; Andrew, RM; Canadell, JG; Ciais, P; Davis, SJ; Deng, Zhu; Liu, Zhu; Peters, GP title: Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels date: 2021-11-03 journal: Environmental Research Letters DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac55b6 sha: 98a46ee51a786dee4eb97a2a4756f15a2cf433d3 doc_id: 897383 cord_uid: w3cjupvw Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 decreased 5.4%, from 36.7 Gt CO2 in 2019 to 34.8 Gt CO2 in 2020, an unprecedented decline of ~1.9 Gt CO2. We project that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 will rebound 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) compared to 2020 to 36.4 Gt CO2, returning nearly to 2019 emission levels of 36.7 Gt CO2. Emissions in China are expected to be 7% higher in 2021 than in 2019 (reaching 11.1 Gt CO2) and only slightly higher in India (a 3% increase in 2021 relative to 2019, and reaching 2.7 Gt CO2). In contrast, projected 2021 emissions in the United States (5.1 Gt CO2), European Union (2.8 Gt CO2), and rest of the world (14.8 Gt CO2, in aggregate) remain below 2019 levels. For fuels, CO2 emissions from coal in 2021 are expected to rebound above 2019 levels to 14.7 Gt CO2, primarily because of increased coal use in China, and will remain only slightly (0.8%) below their previous peak in 2014. Emissions from natural gas use should also rise above 2019 levels in 2021, continuing a steady trend of rising gas use that dates back at least sixty years. Only CO2 emissions from oil remain well below 2019 levels in 2021. projected 2021 emissions in the United States (5.1 Gt CO 2 ), European Union (2.8 Gt CO 2 ), and rest of the world (14.8 Gt CO 2 , in aggregate) remain below 2019 levels. For fuels, CO2 emissions from coal in 2021 are expected to rebound above 2019 levels to 14.7 Gt CO 2 , primarily because of increased coal use in China, and will remain only slightly (0.8%) below their previous peak in 2014. Emissions from natural gas use should also rise above 2019 levels in 2021, continuing a steady trend of rising gas use that dates back at least sixty years. Only CO 2 emissions from oil remain well below 2019 levels in 2021. Emissions in the power and industry sectors have increased global fossil CO 2 emissions the most in 2021, with emissions from surface transport and aviation still below 2019 levels. The rapid rebound in global fossil CO 2 emissions as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic reinforces the need for immediate and global coherence in the world's response to climate change. Fossil CO 2 emissions in 2021 are projected to grow 4.9% (range of 4.1% to 5.7%) to 36.4±0.3 billion metric tons, pushing global emissions back close to 2019 levels (36.7 Gt CO 2 ). Fossil CO 2 emissions in 2021 will grow 4.9% to 36.4±0.3 billion metric tons, returning global emissions close to 2019 levels (36.7 Gt CO 2 ). Prior to the emergence of COVID-19, average global growth in fossil CO2 emissions had slowed to 0.9% annually during the 2010s (2010-2019), with global emissions in 2019 about the same as those in 2018 (~37.7 Gt CO 2 in both years; Friedlingstein et al. 2020 Friedlingstein et al. , 2021 . Much of the decadal slowdown in emissions growth was attributable to the substitution of coal with gas and renewables in the electricity sector , Jackson et al. 2016 , Peters et al. 2020 , and induced in part by the growing numbers of climate change laws worldwide (Eskander and Fankhauser 2020) . Compared to the 2010s, average annual growth of global fossil CO2 emissions was 3.0% in the 2000s, 0.9% in the 1990s, 1.6% in the 1980s, and 3.2% in the 1970s (Friedlingstein et al. 2020 . Confinement measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic reduced social and global economic activity and CO 2 emissions substantially (Le Quéré et al. 2020 , 2021 , Liu et al. 2020 , Forster et al. 2020 , Friedlingstein et al., 2020 , Diffenbaugh et al. 2020 , IEA 2021 ). At the time of peak confinement in a given country, emissions decreased by one quarter (26%) on average (Le Quéré et al. 2020) . Daily global fossil CO2 emissions decreased 17% at peak confinement in April of 2020 (compared to 2019), and daily emissions decreased up to 75% in aviation, 50% in road transportation, and 35% in industry (Le Quéré et al. 2020) . Almost half of the decline in total annual fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 was attributable to reductions in transport activity (Le Quéré et al. 2020 , Liu et al. 2020 ). The economic disruption of COVID-19 in 2020 altered emissions in ways that varied by country, sector, and fuel type and that may have accelerated the transition to renewables. China was among the few large countries whose emissions increased in 2020 compared with 2019, despite a large but brief drop attributable to COVID-19 ( Figure 1 ). The increase in China's total emissions was attributable primarily to its power and industry sectors, where emissions increased by ~54 and 156 Mt CO2, respectively, in 2020 compared to 2019, according to preliminary estimates (Liu et al. 2020 ). Most of this increase took place after April 2020 in the more industrialized maritime provinces of China (Zheng et al. 2020) . Almost all other sectors and countries showed substantial reductions in CO2 emissions from 2019 to 2020 (Figure 1 ) . For fuels globally in 2020, coal use fell 6.2 EJ to 151.4 EJ/yr, a 4% decline compared to consumption in 2019 ( Figure 2 ). Petroleum consumption decreased even more (9.6%) in 2020-an 18.2 EJ drop to 173.7 EJ/yr. Gas consumption fell a modest 2.1% to 137.6 EJ. In contrast, wind, solar, and other renewable sources jumped 10% in 2020 to 31.7 EJ, despite a substantial 25 EJ decline in global energy demand attributable to COVID-19 ( Figure 2 ). For 2021, we project that global fossil CO 2 emissions compared with 2020 levels will rebound by 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) to 36. For fuels in 2021, we project that CO2 emissions from coal use will rebound above 2019 levels to 14.7 Gt CO 2 (Figure 1 ), primarily because of increased coal use in China (Figure 4) , and will remain only slightly (0.8%) below their peak in 2014 (Figure 1 ). CO 2 emissions from natural gas use in 2021 (7.7 Gt CO 2 ) are also expected to rebound above 2019 levels; of all fossil fuels, gas use has risen steadily for at least sixty years (Figure 2 ). Only CO 2 emissions from oil remain well below 2019 levels in 2021 at an estimated 11.5 Gt CO 2 (Figures 1 and 2) . The distribution of the 2021 rebound in fossil CO2 emissions is heterogenous across countries and sectors (Figures 1 and 3 Rapidly increased market penetration of renewables that displace fossil fuels is critical for limiting climate change in the 1.5° to 2°C range (Figure 2) . Although most 1.5°C mitigation scenarios (e.g., van Vuuren et al. 2018) require the substitution to no-or lowcarbon sources for almost all energy infrastructure by 2050, this transition is not currently occurring quickly enough to limit warming to 1.5°C (IPCC 2018). Global gas use is rising particularly quickly. Despite the temporary effects of COVID-19 to suppress energy demand and supply, gas use and its associated CO 2 emissions rose more than 2% a year on average for the five-year period of 2015-2020 (Figures 1 and 2) . In consequence, fossil CO 2 emissions associated with gas use over the next few years are likely to surpass 8 Gt CO 2 /yr. The continuing rise in natural gas use is also problematic for climate because the CO2 emissions come with large and poorly constrained additional warming from methane leakage associated with fossil extraction and use (e.g., Hmiel et al. 2020 , IEA 2021 . Just as for coal and oil, which were also rising quickly prior to COVID-19 (Figures 1 and 2 The rapid rebound in global fossil CO 2 emissions in 2021 (returning very close to 2019 levels) is driven primarily by emissions in the power and industry sectors (Figures 3 and 5 ). Fossil-based investments in economic stimulus packages in post-COVID recovery plans around the world appear to have overwhelmed substantial investments in green infrastructure (Hepburn et al. 2020) . The full effect of responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on CO2 emissions is still uncertain, but a further rise in emissions in 2022 cannot be ruled outgiven the surface transport and aviation sectors have not yet fully recovered (Figures 3 and 5 ). Green investments could still work to alter underlying emissions trends, as many will take years before showing their full effects (Andrijevic et al. 2020) . These trends reinforce the need for strong and globally concerted actions to slow fossil-based investments (that continue to push CO 2 emissions up) and to set global emissions on a trajectory consistent with the temperature limits set in the Paris Agreement. and country or region (bottom panel) for 1959 through 2020 ). Figure 5 . Daily global fossil CO 2 emissions for the power, industry, ground transport, and residential sectors for January through September 2021 relative to 2019 (data from Carbon Monitor, as described in Liu et al. 2020) . 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Bottom panel: Fossil CO 2 emissions by fuel type (coal, oil, and natural gas) plus emissions from cement production and flaring Figure 3. Fossil CO2 emissions by sector and country for the difference between 2021 and 2019 emissions (Mt CO2 The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at globalcarbonproject.org. The authors acknowledge support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (RBJ and JGC), the Australian National Environmental Science Programme's Climate Systems Hub (JGC), the European Commission Horizon 2020 projects VERIFY (#776810) (GPP, RMA, and CLQ) 4C (# 821003) (PF, GPP, RMA, CLQ), and CoCO2 (#958927) (GPA and RMA), and Future Earth. CLQ acknowledges support from the Royal Society ((project no. RP\R1\191063). We thank the many scientists and funding agencies whose efforts and support contributed to the Global Carbon Budget 2021 released by the Global Carbon Project (globalcarbonproject.org). Figure 4 . Annual fossil CO 2 emissions (Gt CO 2 ) in China by fuel type and industry. The projected emissions growth numbers for 2021 (in %) are relative to 2020 emissions.