key: cord-0965939-avjugdkq authors: Xu, Z.; Zhang, H.; Niu, Y. title: A Continuous Bayesian Model for the Stimulation COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics date: 2021-06-22 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.20.21259220 sha: 50e5c2d2d5f9a70d0dd461b01333ada6fd161667 doc_id: 965939 cord_uid: avjugdkq It is of great theoretical and application value to accurately forecast the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. We first proposed and established a Bayesian model to predict the epidemic spreading behavior. In this model, the infection probability matrix is estimated according to the individual contact frequency in certain population group. This infection probability matrix is highly correlated with population geographic distribution, population age structure and so on. This model can effectively avoid the prediction malfunction by using the traditional ordinary differential equation methods such as SIR (susceptible, infectious and recovered) model and so on. Meanwhile, it would forecast the epidemic distribution and predict the epidemic hot spots geographically at different time. According to the results revealed by Bayesian model, the effect of population geographical distribution should be considered in the prediction of epidemic situation, and there is no simple derivation relationship between the threshold of group immunity and the virus reproduction numberR0. If we further consider the virus mutation effect and the antibody attenuation effect, with a large global population spatial distribution, it will be difficult for us to eliminate Covid-19 in a short time even with vaccination endeavor. Covid-19 may exist in human society for a long time, and the epidemic caused by re-infection is characterized by a wild-geometric && low- probability distribution with no epidemic hotspots. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) w h i c h m e a n s t h e i n f e c t i o n p r o b a b i l i t y i s e q u a l t o c o n t a c t p r o b a b i l i t y . T h e c o n t a c t p r o b a b i l i t i e s w i t h t h e m s e l v e s a r e z e r o . I n t h i s w a y , a n N * N m a t r i x i s e s t a b l i s h e d , w h i c h h a s t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259220 doi: medRxiv preprint ( 1 0 ) . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021 . T h e r e f o r e t h e f i n a l B a y e s i a n m o d e l b e c o m e s : . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259220 doi: medRxiv preprint f r e q u e n c y o f t h e r e a l p o p u l a t i o n m a y b e b e t w e e n t h e t w o . I t c a n b e s e e n f r o m t h e f i g u r e t h a t t h e e p i d e m i c t r e n d c u r v e g e n e r a t e d b y B a y e s i a n m o d e l w i t h p o p u l a t i o R 0 v a l u e e v e n w h e n o n l y a s m a l l n u m b e r o f p e o p l e a r e i n f e c t e d . T h e s p a t i a l e f f e c t o f t h i s e p i d e m i c s p r e a d c a n b e w e l l r e f l e c t e d b y o u r B a y e s i a n m o d e . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259220 doi: medRxiv preprint i n f e c t i o n o c c u r r e n c e a n d a g e f o l l o w s e q u a t i o n ( 9 ) , a n d t h e c o r r e c t i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n i n f e c t i v i t y a n d c o n t a c t p r o b a b i l i t y f o l l o w s e q u a t i o n ( 1 0 ) . T h e s p e c i f i c p a r a m e t e r s a r e p r o v i d e d i n t h e s u p p l e m e n t a r y m a t e r i a l s , t h e r e s u l t s a r e s h o w n i n f i g u r e 4 . . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259220 doi: medRxiv preprint r e g i o n s s u f f e r i n g C O V I D -1 9 e p i d e m i c . T h e r e f o r e , w h e n w e f o r e c a s t e p i d e m i c d e v e l o p m e n t , w e n e e d t o c o n s i d e r t h e s p a t i a l a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l f a c t o r s . T h h o t s p o t s , a n d a w i l d -d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h s m a l l p r o b a b i l i t y . A s o u r w h o l e h u m a n s o c i e t y , t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n a n d s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n f a r e x c e e d s t h e s c a l e o f o u i n t e r e s t i n g p h e n o m e n o n . A s s h o w n b y t h e p u r p l e d o t t e d l i n e i n F i g u r e 4 , t h e a v e r a g e a g e o f i n f e c t i o n d o e s n o t e n g a g e a s i g n i f i c a n t a l t e r n a t i o n , w h i c h m e a n s t h a t t h . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.20.21259220 doi: medRxiv preprint a l o n e t h e r e p e a t e d f l u c t u a t i o n s o f t h e e p i d e m i c . T h e r e f o r e , w e s h o u l d t r y t o a b a n d o n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l i d e a o f u s i n g p a r a m e t e r f i t t i n g t o p r e d i c t t h e e p i d e m i c s i t u a t i . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. T h e a c t u a l h e r d i m m u n i t y t h r e s h o l d m i g h t b e s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r t h a n t h e p r e s u m e d o n e d e r i v e d f r o m R 0 . T h i s f i n d i n g m i g h t h a v e a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e o n t . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. 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